宏观经济因素与公司资本结构
|
摘要
任何公司都会始终处于某种宏观经济环境中,其资本结构不可避免的受到宏观经济冲击的影响。本文利用微观层面的上市公司数据,引入分数Logit模型、分位数回归模型和双重差分模型等一系列微观计量经济分析方法,系统考察宏观经济因素(经济周期、信贷风险、信贷配给、股市表现、管理者信心以及经济政策)外生冲击对我国上市公司资本结构的影响,发现宏观经济因素是影响公司资本结构选择的重要因素,我国上市公司的融资偏好顺序随经济周期的变化而发生变动,经济政策外生冲击对上市公司资本结构具有显著的异质性效应。
本文首先研究宏观经济因素与公司资本结构之间的关系。本文研究了1994—2007年中国宏观经济因素对上市公司资本结构的影响,发现宏观经济周期性波动和信贷市场违约风险对中国上市公司资本结构具有较显著影响。上市公司总体上存在反周期的资本结构调整行为：在宏观经济景气时,公司财务杠杆下降；当宏观经济衰退时,则公司财务杠杆上升。信贷市场的贷款违约状况对上市公司财务杠杆具有反向影响,这显示信贷市场状况制约着上市公司资本结构的调整行为。本文的实证结论表明中国上市公司的融资行为与最优融资理论的推断一致,而与权衡理论和市场择机假说的推断都有矛盾之处。本文利用不同的样本组,并结合样本数据特点使用了不同的估计策略,均发现以上结论基本成立。
本文接着研究宏观经济因素、管理者信心与公司融资方式选择之间的关系。本文通过三阶段的实证策略,系统考察宏观经济因素和管理者信心对上市公司融资选择的影响,本文的研究表明：随着宏观经济条件的变化,中国上市公司的融资顺序也随之发生变化,在经济周期的上行阶段,融资顺序为“内部融资—股权融资—债务融资”,在经济周期的衰退阶段,融资顺序则调整为“内部融资—债务融资—股权融资”；有证据表明公司管理者对经济前景的信心对公司融资选择具有较显著影响,在管理者信心作用下,公司融资决策符合最优融资顺序理论的推断。本文的研究有助于澄清长期以来关于中国上市公司融资偏好顺序的争议。
以上两项研究主要关注资本市场需求面的因素。为了识别资本市场供给面因素对公司资本结构的影响,本文构建了一个“自然实验”的分析框架,首次采用双重差分估计策略考察1998年信贷扩张与2004年信贷紧缩对我国上市公司资本结构的影响。本文的研究发现1998年的信贷扩张显著增加了小规模、民营化程度高以及担保能力弱的公司的负债水平,这些公司获得了更多的银行资金；2004年的信贷紧缩则导致这三种类型的公司显著减少了有息负债率,但是应付款项的增加弥补了信贷资金的减少。本文的研究表明资本市场供给面因素在统计和经济意义上均对公司资本结构具有重要影响,而且我国存在信贷渠道传导效应,但其影响程度因不同类型的公司而异。本文的发现对于宏观经济政策制定和实施具有重要的政策意义,也有助于澄清2004年以来关于宏观调控的社会争议。
本文最后给出结论以及研究展望。
The firm is always in a macroeconomic environment, its capital structure is inevitably affected by some kind of macroeconomic shocks. This paper studies the effects of macroeconomic factors(such as business cycles、default risk、credit quota、stock market performance、entrepreneurial confidence and economic policy) on capital structure of chinese listed companies, using some novel econometric methods such as fractional logit model, quantile regression model, and difference-in-differences model. This paper finds that macroeconomic factors have importance influences on capital structure, there is not simple financing preference, and chinese firms have heterogeneous responses to economic policy change.
First, this paper studies the relations between macroeconomic factors and capital structure. This paper studies the effects of macroeconomic factors on capital structure of chinese listed companies between 1994-2007, finding that business cycles and default risk have significantly influences on capital structre. Chinese corporate adjusted the capital structure counter-cyclically:when economy is prosperous, corporate leverage ratio decreases; when economic recession is coming, corporate leverage ratio increases. Credit default risk has significantly negatively influences on capital structure, this implies that credit market conditions restrict corporate adjusting behaviour. These empirical results show that chinese corporate financing behaviour are consistent with the pecking order theory but contradict with trade-off theory and market timing hypothesis. Using different group of sample and employing different econometric methods according to different kind of data character, thise paper finds the empirical results are robust.
Second, this paper studies how the macroeconomic factors and entrepreneurial confidence affect corporate financing preference. The paper empolyes three-stage empirical strategy to study the problem, and finds that corporate financing preference varies with business cycles, when economy is prosperous, financing preference order is "internal financing-equity financing-debt financing", when economic recession is coming, financing preference order is "internal financing-debt financing-equity financing". Empirical results show that entrepreneurial confidence have significantly effect on corporate financing choices which are consistent with pecking order theory. These results are helpful in clarifying the financing preference controversy about chinese listed firms.
Third, this paper constructs the "natural experiment" framework to identify the effects of capital market supply-side factors on corporate capital structure. Following the "natural experiment" approach, this paper uses difference-in-diffrences empirical strategy in testing the effects of credit policy shock on capital structure that ocurring in 1998 credit expansion and 2004 credit crunch. The paper finds that levrage ratios of firms those are small、private and less collateral (treament group) significantly increase relative to firms those are big、state-owned and more collateral (control group) since 1998 credit expansion; but firms in treament group significantly decrease leverage ratios relative to firms in control group since 2004 credit crunch. The results suggest that supply factors in capital market have important influences on capital structure, there exists lending channel effect in china economy, but different kinds of firms have different responses to credit supply shock. These findings have important policy implication on macroeconomic policy making and implementing, also help clarifying the public issues on 2004 Macro-regulation.
本文首先研究宏观经济因素与公司资本结构之间的关系。本文研究了1994—2007年中国宏观经济因素对上市公司资本结构的影响,发现宏观经济周期性波动和信贷市场违约风险对中国上市公司资本结构具有较显著影响。上市公司总体上存在反周期的资本结构调整行为：在宏观经济景气时,公司财务杠杆下降；当宏观经济衰退时,则公司财务杠杆上升。信贷市场的贷款违约状况对上市公司财务杠杆具有反向影响,这显示信贷市场状况制约着上市公司资本结构的调整行为。本文的实证结论表明中国上市公司的融资行为与最优融资理论的推断一致,而与权衡理论和市场择机假说的推断都有矛盾之处。本文利用不同的样本组,并结合样本数据特点使用了不同的估计策略,均发现以上结论基本成立。
本文接着研究宏观经济因素、管理者信心与公司融资方式选择之间的关系。本文通过三阶段的实证策略,系统考察宏观经济因素和管理者信心对上市公司融资选择的影响,本文的研究表明：随着宏观经济条件的变化,中国上市公司的融资顺序也随之发生变化,在经济周期的上行阶段,融资顺序为“内部融资—股权融资—债务融资”,在经济周期的衰退阶段,融资顺序则调整为“内部融资—债务融资—股权融资”；有证据表明公司管理者对经济前景的信心对公司融资选择具有较显著影响,在管理者信心作用下,公司融资决策符合最优融资顺序理论的推断。本文的研究有助于澄清长期以来关于中国上市公司融资偏好顺序的争议。
以上两项研究主要关注资本市场需求面的因素。为了识别资本市场供给面因素对公司资本结构的影响,本文构建了一个“自然实验”的分析框架,首次采用双重差分估计策略考察1998年信贷扩张与2004年信贷紧缩对我国上市公司资本结构的影响。本文的研究发现1998年的信贷扩张显著增加了小规模、民营化程度高以及担保能力弱的公司的负债水平,这些公司获得了更多的银行资金；2004年的信贷紧缩则导致这三种类型的公司显著减少了有息负债率,但是应付款项的增加弥补了信贷资金的减少。本文的研究表明资本市场供给面因素在统计和经济意义上均对公司资本结构具有重要影响,而且我国存在信贷渠道传导效应,但其影响程度因不同类型的公司而异。本文的发现对于宏观经济政策制定和实施具有重要的政策意义,也有助于澄清2004年以来关于宏观调控的社会争议。
本文最后给出结论以及研究展望。
The firm is always in a macroeconomic environment, its capital structure is inevitably affected by some kind of macroeconomic shocks. This paper studies the effects of macroeconomic factors(such as business cycles、default risk、credit quota、stock market performance、entrepreneurial confidence and economic policy) on capital structure of chinese listed companies, using some novel econometric methods such as fractional logit model, quantile regression model, and difference-in-differences model. This paper finds that macroeconomic factors have importance influences on capital structure, there is not simple financing preference, and chinese firms have heterogeneous responses to economic policy change.
First, this paper studies the relations between macroeconomic factors and capital structure. This paper studies the effects of macroeconomic factors on capital structure of chinese listed companies between 1994-2007, finding that business cycles and default risk have significantly influences on capital structre. Chinese corporate adjusted the capital structure counter-cyclically:when economy is prosperous, corporate leverage ratio decreases; when economic recession is coming, corporate leverage ratio increases. Credit default risk has significantly negatively influences on capital structure, this implies that credit market conditions restrict corporate adjusting behaviour. These empirical results show that chinese corporate financing behaviour are consistent with the pecking order theory but contradict with trade-off theory and market timing hypothesis. Using different group of sample and employing different econometric methods according to different kind of data character, thise paper finds the empirical results are robust.
Second, this paper studies how the macroeconomic factors and entrepreneurial confidence affect corporate financing preference. The paper empolyes three-stage empirical strategy to study the problem, and finds that corporate financing preference varies with business cycles, when economy is prosperous, financing preference order is "internal financing-equity financing-debt financing", when economic recession is coming, financing preference order is "internal financing-debt financing-equity financing". Empirical results show that entrepreneurial confidence have significantly effect on corporate financing choices which are consistent with pecking order theory. These results are helpful in clarifying the financing preference controversy about chinese listed firms.
Third, this paper constructs the "natural experiment" framework to identify the effects of capital market supply-side factors on corporate capital structure. Following the "natural experiment" approach, this paper uses difference-in-diffrences empirical strategy in testing the effects of credit policy shock on capital structure that ocurring in 1998 credit expansion and 2004 credit crunch. The paper finds that levrage ratios of firms those are small、private and less collateral (treament group) significantly increase relative to firms those are big、state-owned and more collateral (control group) since 1998 credit expansion; but firms in treament group significantly decrease leverage ratios relative to firms in control group since 2004 credit crunch. The results suggest that supply factors in capital market have important influences on capital structure, there exists lending channel effect in china economy, but different kinds of firms have different responses to credit supply shock. These findings have important policy implication on macroeconomic policy making and implementing, also help clarifying the public issues on 2004 Macro-regulation.
引文
[1]才静涵和刘红忠,2006：《市场择时理论与中国市场的资本结构》,《经济科学》第4期。
[2]程海波、于蕾和许治林,2005：《资本结构、信贷约束和信贷歧视：上海非国有中小企业的案例》,《世界经济》第8期。
[3]陈晓和单鑫,1999：《债务融资是否会增加上市企业的融资成本?》,《经济研究》第9期。
[4]邓剑琴和朱武祥,2006：《产品市场竞争、股权融资约束与财务激进行为》,《经济学季刊》第3期。
[5]方军雄,2007：《所有制、制度环境与信贷资金配置》,《经济研究》第12期。
[6]冯根福、吴林江和刘世彦,2000：《我国上市公司资本结构形成的影响因素分析》,《经济学家》第5期。
[7]冯玉梅,2006：《基于市场微观结构视角的我国上市公司融资行为研究》,天津大学博士论文。
[8]郭鹏飞,孙培源,2003：《资本结构的行业特征：基于中国上市公司的实证研究》,《经济研究》第5期。
[9]洪道麟、熊德华和刘力,2007：《所有权性质、多元化和资本结构内生性》,《经济学季刊》第4期。
[10 ]洪锡熙和沈艺峰,2000：《我国上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析》,《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第3期。
[11 ]黄少安和张岗,2001：《中国上市公司股权融资偏好》,《经济研究》第11期。
[12]江春、许立诚,2007：《金融发展的政治经济学—兼论中国国有商业银行改革的逻辑》,工作论文。
[13 ]姜付秀和刘志彪,2005：《行业特征、资本结构与产品市场竞争》,《管理世界》第10期。
[14]姜付秀、屈耀辉、陆正飞和李焰,2008：《产品市场竞争与资本结构动态调整》,《经济研究》第4期。
[15]蒋殿春,2003：《中国上市公司资本结构和融资倾向》,《世界经济》第7期。
[16]凯恩斯,1935：《就业、利息与货币通论》,中译本由商务印书馆1996年出版。
[17]李国重,2006：《中国上市公司资本结构的动态目标调整：制度特征导向》,《会计研究》第12期。
[18]李朝霞,2003：《影响中国上市公司融资结构的主要因素分析》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第10期。
[19]李青原和王永海,2006：《资产专用性与公司资本结构》,《会计研究》第7期。
[20]李青原、陈晓和王永海,2007：《产品市场竞争、资产专用性与资本结构——来自中国制造业上市公司的经验证据》,《金融研究》第4期。
[21 ]连玉君和钟经樊,2007：《中国上市公司资本结构动态调整机制研究》,《南方经济》第1期。
[22]刘志彪、姜付秀和卢二坡,2003：《资本结构与产品市场竞争强度》,《经济研究》第7期。
[23]刘星、魏锋和詹宇,2004：《我国上市公司融资顺序的实证研究》,《会计研究》第6期。
[24]陆正飞和辛宇,1998：《上市公司资本结构主要因素之实证研究》,《会计研究》第8期。
[25]陆正飞和高强,2003：《中国上市公司融资行为研究——基于问卷调查的分析》,《会计研究》第10期。
[26]陆正飞和叶康涛,2004：《中国上市公司股权融资偏好解析》,《经济研究》第4期。
]27]陆正飞、祝继高和樊铮,2009：《银根紧缩、信贷歧视与民营上市公司投资者利益损失》《金融研究》2009年第8期
[28]吕长江和王克敏,2002：《上市公司资本结构、股利分配及管理股权比例相互作用机制研究》,《会计研究》第3期。
[29]麦元勋,2008：《我国股票流动性与上市公司资本结构研究》,暨南大学博士论文。
[30]彭方平和王少平,2007： 《我国货币政策的微观效应——基于非线性光滑转换面板模型的实证研究》, 《金融研究》第9期。
[31]屈耀辉,2006：《中国上市公司资本结构的调整速度以及影响因素》,《会计研究》第6期。
[32]屈耀辉、姜付秀和陈朝晖,2007：《资本结构决策具有战略效应吗?》,《管理世界》第2期。
[33]沈根祥和朱平芳,1999：《上市公司资本结构决定因素实证分析》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第5期。
[34]沈维涛和叶晓铭,2004：《EVA对上市公司资本结构影响的实证研究》,《经济研究》第11期。
[35]沈艺峰和田静,1999：《我国上市公司资本成本的定量研究》,《经济研究》第11期。
[36]施华强,2005：《国有商业银行账面不良贷款、调整因素和严重程度：1994—2004年》,《金融研究》第12期。
[37]苏冬蔚,2004：《中国股市流动性与执行成本研究》,《经济科学》第2期。
[38]苏冬蔚,2008：《噪音交易与市场质量》,《经济研究》第9期。
[39]苏冬蔚和曾海舰,2009：《宏观经济因素与公司资本结构变动》,《经济研究》第12期。
[40 ]苏冬蔚和曾海舰,2009：《宏观经济因素、企业家信心与公司融资选择》,暨南大学工作论文。
[41]童盼、陆正飞,2005：《负债融资、负债来源与企业投资行为》,《经济研究》第5期。
[42]王皓和赵俊,2004：《资本结构动态调整模型》,《经济科学》第3期。
[43]王素荣和张新民,2006：《资本结构和所得税税负关系实证研究》,《中国工业经济》第12期。
[44]王永海和范明,2004：《资产专用性视角下的资本结构动态分析》,《中国工业经济》第1期。
[45]王正位、赵冬青和朱武祥,2007：《资本市场磨擦与资本结构调整——来自中国上市公司的证据》,《金融研究》第6期。
[46]吴联生和岳衡,2006：《税率调整和资本结构变动——基于我国取消“先征后返”所得税优惠政策的研究》,《管理世界》第11期。
[47]吴晓波,2008：《激荡三十年》(下册),中信出版社。
[48 ]谢平和袁沁吾,2003：《我国近年利率政策的效果分析》,《金融研究》第3期。
[49]谢平,2004：《中国货币政策分析：1998—2002》,《金融研究》,第8期。
[50]熊彼特,1934：《经济发展理论》,中译本由商务印书馆1990年出版。
[51]肖作平,2004：《资本结构影响因素和双向效应动态模型——来自中国上市公司面板数据的证据》,《会计研究》第2期。
[52]肖作平和吴世农,2002：《我国上市公司资本结构影响因素实证研究》,《证券市场导报》第8期。
[53]余明桂、夏新平和邹振松,2006：《管理者过度自信与企业激进负债行为》,《管理世界》第8期。
[54]叶康涛和祝继高,2009： 《银根紧缩与信贷资源配置》, 《管理世界》2009年第1期。
[56]曾海舰,2010： 《宏观调控与公司价值》, 《金融评论》(中国社科院主办)即将发表。
[56]曾海舰和苏冬蔚,2009： 《信贷政策与公司资本结构》,暨南大学工作论文。
[57]张春,2008：《公司金融学》,中国人民大学出版社。
[58]赵冬青、朱武祥和王正位,2008：《宏观调控与房地产上市公司资本结构调整》,《金融研究》第10期。
[59]张军、郑祖玄和赵涛,2005：《中国上市公司资本结构：股权融资偏好、最优资本结构还是 过度融资?》,《世界经济文汇》第6期。
[60]朱德新和朱洪亮,2007：《中国上市公司资本结构的选择——基于两种主要理论的检验》,《南方经济》第9期。
[61]郑江淮,2001：《信息不对称条件下非国有企业的资金供给》,《经济管理》第12期。
[62]朱武祥、陈寒梅和吴迅,2002：《产品市场竞争与财务保守行为——以燕京啤酒为例的分析》,《经济研究》第8期。
[63]周小川,2004：《当前研究和完善货币政策传导机制应关注的几个问题》,《金融时报》,2004年4月14日。
[64]周英章和蒋振声,2002：《货币渠道、信用渠道与货币政策有效性—中国1993-2001年的实证分析和政策含义》,《金融研究》第9期。
[65]1996-2007年的《中国国民经济与社会发展报告》,北京：中国计划出版社。
[66]1999-2007年的《中国金融年鉴》,中国金融学会编,北京：中国金融年鉴编辑部。
[67]Altman,E.,1984, A Further Empirical Investigation of the Bankruptcy Cost Question, Journal of Finance 39,1067-1089.
[68]Andrade, G., and S.N. Kaplan,1998, How costly is financial (not economic) distress?Evidence from highly leveraged transactions that became distressed, Journal of Finance 53,1443-93.
[69]Angrist, J., Chernozhukov, V. and I. Fernandez-Val,2006, Quantile regression under mis-specification, with an application to the U.S. wage structure, Econometrica 74,539-563.
[70]Angrist, J.,and J.S.Pischke,2008, Mostly Harmless Econometrics:An Empiricist's Companion, Princeton University Press.
[71]Ahn, H.J., Cai, J., Hamao, Y. and R. Ho,2002, The components of the bid-ask spread in a limit-order market:Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Journal of Empirical Finance 9, 399-430.
[72]Auerbach, A.J., and M.A. King,1983, Taxation、 portfolio choice and debt-equity ratios:A general equilibrium model, Quarterly Journal of Economics 98,587-610.
[73]Baker, M. and J. Stein,2004, Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator, Journal of Financial Markets 7,271-299.
[74]Baker, M. and J. Wurgler,2002, Market timing and capital structure, Journal of Finance 57, 1-32.
[75]Baker, M., Ruback, R.S. and J. Wurgler,2007, Behavioral corporate finance:A survey, In: Eckbo, E.:Handbook of Corporate Finance:Empirical Corporate Finance, Volume 1,146-178, Handbooks in Finance, Elsevier.
[76]Baxter, M. and R.G.King,1999, Measuring Business Cycles:Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series, The Review of Economics and Statistics, November81,575-593.
[77]Bayless, M. and S.Chaplinsky,1996, Is there a window of opportunity for seasoned equity issuance? Journal of Finance 51,253-278.
[78]Ben-David, I., Graham, J.R. and C.R. Harvey,2008, Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies, Duke University Working Paper.
[79]Bolton, P. and D. Scharfstein,1990, A Theory of Predation Based on Agency Problems in Financial Contracting, American Economic Review 80,93-106.
[80]Bharath, S., Pasquariello, P. and G. Wu,2008, Does asymmetric information drive capital structure decisions? University of Michigan Working Paper.
[81]Brander, J. and T. Lewis,1986, Oligopoly and Financial Structure:the Limited Liability Effect, American Economic Rewiew 76,956-970.
[82]Brennan, M.J., and E.S. Schwartz,1984, Optimal financial policy and firrm valuation, Journal of Finance 39,593-607.
[83]Butler, A.W., Grullon, G. and J.P. Weston,2005, Stock market liquidity and the cost of issuing equity, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 40,331-348.
[84]Campello, M.,2003, Capital structure and product markets interactions:Evidence from business cycles, Journal of Financial Economics 68,353-378.
[85]Chamberlain, G.,1980, Analysis of variance with qualitative data, Review of Economic Studies 47, 225-238.
[86]Chang,X. and S.Dasgupta, Target Behavior and Financing:How Conclusive is the Evidence? Journal of Finance, Forthcoming.
[87]Chen, H.,2007, Macroeconomic conditions and the puzzles of credit spreads and capital structure, University of Chicago Working Paper.
[88]Chen, L, and X.L., Zhao,2007, Mechanical mean reversion of leverage ratios, Economic Letters 95,223-229.
[89]Chevalier, J.A.,1995, Capital Structure and Product Market Competition:Empirical Evidence from the Supermarket Industry, American Economic Review 85,415-435.
[90]Chevalier, J.A. and D.S.Scharfstein,1996, Capital-Market Imperfections and Countercyclical Markups, American Economic Review 86,703-725.
[91]De Jong, F., Nijman, T. and A. Roell,1996, Price effects of trading and components of the bid-ask spread on the Paris Bourse, Journal of Empirical Finance 3,193-213.
[92]DeAngelo, H., and R.W. Masulis,1980, Optimal capital structure under corporate and personal taxation, Journal of Financial Economics 8,3-29.
[93]Duffie, D., and K.Singleton,2003, Credit Risk:Pricing, Measurement, and Management, Princeton University Press.
[94]Easley, D. and M. O'Hara,2004, Information and the cost of capital, Journal of Finance 59,1553-1583.
[95]Fama, E.,1986, Term premiums and default premiums in money markets, Journal of Financial Economics 17,175-196.
[96]Fama, E.F. and K. French,2002, Testing tradeoff and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt, Review of Financial Studies 15,1-33.
[97]Faulkender, M., and M.A. Petersen,2006, Does the source of capital affect capital structure?, Review of Financial Studies 19,45-79.
[98]Fischer, E.O., Heinkel, R. and J. Zechner,1989, Dynamic capital structure choice:Theory and tests, Journal of Finance 44,19-40.
[99]Flannery, M. J. and K.P. Rangan,2006, Partial adjustment toward target capital, Journal of Financial Economics 79,469-506.
[100]Frank, M.Z. and V.K. Goyal,2008, Trade off and pecking order theories of debt, In:Eckbo, E., Handbook of Corporate Finance:Empirical Corporate Finance, Volume 2, forthcoming in Elsevier.
[101]Frank, M.Z. and V.K. Goyal,2007, Capital structure decisions:Which factors are reliably important? University of Minnesota and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Working Paper.
[102]Frank, M.Z. and V.K. Goyal,2003, Testing the pecking-order theory of capital structure, Journal of Financial Economics 67,217-248.
[103]Frye, J.,2000a, Collateral damage, Risk (April),91-94.
[104]Frye, J.,2000b, Depressing recoveries, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, working paper.
[105]George, T., Kaul, G. and M. Nimalendran,1991, Estimation of the bid-ask spread and its components:A new approach, Review of Financial Studies 4,623-656.
[106]Gertler, M., and S. Gilchrist,1994, Monetary policy, business cycles, and the behavior of small manufacturing firms, Quarterly Journal of Economics 109,309-340.
[107]Gertler, M., and R.G. Hubbard,1993, Corporate Financial Policy、 Taxation and Macroeconomic Risk, RAND Journal of Economics 24,286-303
[108]Glosten, L., and L. Harris,1988, Estimating the components of the bid-ask spread, Journal of Financial Economics 21,123-142.
[109]Goyal, V.K., Lehn, K.M. and S. Racic,2002, Growth opportunities and corporate debt policy: the case of the U.S. defense industry, Journal of Financial Economics 64,35-59
[110]Graham, J.,2000, How big are the tax bene￣ts of debt? Journal of Finance 55,1901-1941.
[111]Graham, J., and C. Harvey,2001, The theory and practice of corporate finance:Evidence from the field, Journal of Financial Economics 60,187-243.
[112]Hackbarth, D.,2005, Determinants of corporate borrowing:A behavioral perspective, University of Illinois Working Paper.
[113]Hackbarth, D.,2008, Managerial traits and capital structure decisions, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming.
[114]Hackbarth, D., Miao, J. and E. Morellec,2006, Capital structure, credit risk, and macroeconomic conditions, Journal of Financial Economics 82,519-550.
[115]Hahn, J., Hausman, J. and G.Kuersteiner,2007, Long difference instrumental variables estimation for dynamic panel models with fixed effects, Journal of Econometrics 140,574-617.
[116]Harris, M. and A. Raviv,1991, The theory of capital structure, Journal of Finance 46,297-355.
[117]Hausman, J. and D. McFadden,1984, A specification test for the multinomial logit model, Econometrica 52,1219-1240.
[118]Heaton, J.B.,2002, Managerial optimism and corporate finance, Financial Management 31, 33-45.
[119]Hennessy, C.A., and T.A. Whited,2005, Debt dynamics, Journal of Finance 60,1129-1165.
[120]Holmstrom,B.,and J.Tirole,1997, Financial intermediation、 loanable funds and the real sector, Quarterly Journal of Economics 112,663-692
[121]Hovakimian, A., Opler, T. and S. Titman,2001, The debt-equity choice, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 36,1-24.
[122]Huang,G. and F.M.Song,2006, The determinants of capital structure:Evidence from China, China Economic Review 17,14-36.
[123]Huang, R. and J.R. Ritter,2008, Testing theories of capital structure and estimating the speed of adjustment, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming.
[124) Jarrow, Robert A,2001, Default parameter estimation using market prices, Financial Analysts Journal 57,75-92.
[125]Jensen, M.C.,1986, Agency costs of free cash flow、 corporate finance and takeovers, American Economic Review 76,323-329.
[126]Jensen, M.C. and W. Meckling,1976, Theory of the firm:Managerial behavior、 agency costs and ownership structure, Journal of Financial Economics 3,305-360.
[127]Jalilvand, A. and R.S. Harris,1984, Corporate behavior in adjusting to capital structure and dividend targets:An econometric study. Journal of Finance 39,127-45.
[128]Jokivuolle, E., and Samu Peura,2003, Incorporating collateral value uncertainty in loss given default estimates and loan-to-value ratios, European Financial Management 9,299-314.
[129]Kale, J.R. and H. Shahrur,2007, Corporate capital structure and characteristics of suppliers and customers, Journal of Financial Economics 83,321-365.
[130]Kane, A., A.J. Marcus, and R.L. McDonald,1984, How big is the tax advantage to debt? Journal of Finance 39,841-853.
[131]Kaplan, S.N., and Luigi Zingales,1997, Do investment-cash flow sensitivities provide useful measures of financing constraints? Quarterly Journal of Economics 112,169-215.
[132]Kemsley, D., and D. Nissim,2002, Valuation of the debt tax shield, Journal of Finance 57, 2045-2073.
[133]Kisgen, D.J.,2006, Credit ratings and capital structure, Journal of Finance 61,1035-1073.
[134]Kiyotaki, N., and J. Moore,1997, Credit Cycles, Journal of Political Economy105,211-248.
[135]Kiyotaki, N., and J. Moore,2002, Balance-Sheet Contagion, American Economic Review92, 46-50.
[136]Kovenock, D., and G.M. Phillips,1995, Capital structure and product-market rivalry:How do we reconcile theory and evidence? American Economic Review 85,403-408.
[137]Kovenock, D., and G.M. Phillips,1997, Capital structure and product market behavior:An examination of plant exit and investment decisions, Review of Financial Studies 10,767-803.
[138]Korajczyk, R.A., and A. Levy,2003, Capital structure choice:Macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints, Journal of Financial Economics,68,75-109.
[139]Kraus, A., and R. Litzenberger,1973, A state-preference model of optimal financial leverage. Journal of Finance 28,911-922.
[140]Leary, M.T.,2008, Bank loan supply、 lender choice and corporate capital structure. Journal of Finance forthcoming.
[141]Leary, M.T., and M.R. Roberts,2005, Do firms rebalance their capital structures? Journal of Finance 60,2575-2619.
[142]Lemmon, M.L., and M.R. Roberts,2007, The response of corporate financing and investment to changes in the supply of credit. University of Pennsylvania Working Paper.
[143]Lemmon, M.L., Roberts, M.R. and J.F. Zender,2008, Back to the beginning:Persistence and the cross-section of corporate capital structure, Journal of Finance 63,1575-1608.
[144]Lesmond,D., O'Connor, P. and L. Senbet,2008, Capital structure and equity liquidity, Tulane University Working Paper.
[145]Levy, A. and C. Hennessy,2007, Why does capital structure choice vary with macroeconomic conditions? Journal of Financial Economics 54:1545-1564.
[146]Lin, J. C., Sanger, G. and G. Booth,1995, Trade size and components of the bid-ask spread, Review of Financial Studies 8,1153-1183.
[147]Little, R.J.A., and D.B. Rubin,2002, Statistical analysis with missing data, second edition, John Wiley & Sons.
[148]Llorente, G., Michaely, R., Saar, G. and J. Wang,2002, Dynamic volume-return relation of individual stocks, Review of Financial Studies 15,1005-1047.
[149]Lipson, M., and S. Mortal,2006, Capital structure decisions and equity market liquidity, University of Virginia Working Paper.
[150]Lucas, D. and R.L. McDonald,1990, Equity issues and stock price dynamics, Journal of Finance 45,1019-1043.
[151]Lyandres, E.,2006, Capital structure and interaction among firms in output markets:Theory and evidence, Journal of Business 79,2381-2421.
[152]Malmendier, U. and G. Tate,2005, CEO overconfidence and corporate investment, Journal of Finance 60,2661-2700.
[153]Malmendier, U. and G. Tate,2007, Corporate Financial Policies with Overconfident Managers, NBER Working Paper 13570.
[154]Maksimovic, V.,1988, Capital structure in repeated oligopolies, RAND Journal of Economics 19, 389-407.
[155]Miao, J.,2005, Optimal capital structure and industry dynamics, Journal of Finance 60, 2621-2659.
[156]Miller, M.H.,1977, Debt and taxes, Journal of Finance 32,261-75.
[157]Modigliani, F. and M.H. Miller,1958, The cost of capital、 corporation finance and the theory of investment, American Economic Review 48,261-297.
[158]Modigliani, F. and M.H. Miller,1963, Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital:A correction, American Economic Review 53,433-443.
[159]Mundlak, Y.,1978, On the pooling of time series and cross section data, Econometrica 46, 69-85.
[160]Myers, S.C.,1977, Determinants of corporate borrowing, Journal of Financial Economics 5, 147-175.
[161]Myers, S.C.,1984, The capital structure puzzle, Journal of Finance 39,575-592.
[162]Myers, S.C.,2001, Capital structure, Journal of Economic Perspectives 15,81-102.
[163]Myers, S.C. and N. Majluf,1984, Corporate financing decisions when firms have information that investors do not have, Journal of Financial Economics 13,187-221.
[164]Papke, L.E. and J.M. Wooldridge,1996, Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401 (k) plan participation rates, Journal of Applied Econometrics 11,619-632.
[165]Papke, L.E. and J.M. Wooldridge,2007, Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates, Michigan State University Working Paper.
[166]Petersen, M.A.,2009, Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets:Comparing approaches, Review of Financial Studies 22,435-480.
[167]Pulvino, T.C.,1998, Do asset fire sales exist? an empirical investigation of commercial aircraft transactions, Journal of Finance 53,939-978.
[168]Rajan, R.G. and L. Zingales,1995, What do we know about capital structure? Some evidence from international data, Journal of Finance 50,1421-1460.
[169]Ross, S.,1977, The determination of financial structure:the incentive-signaling approach, Bell Journal of Economics 8,23-40.
[170]Shleifer, A., and R. Vishny,1992, Liquidation values and debt capacity:A market equilibrium approach, Journal of Finance 47,1343-1366.
[171]Shyam-Sunder, L. and S. Myers,1999, Testing static tradeoff against pecking order models of capital structure, Journal of Financial Economics 51,219-244.
[172]Stein, J.C.,1996, Rational capital budgeting in an irrational world, Journal of Business 69, 429-455.
[173]Stock, J. and M. Watson,1999, Business cycle fluctuations in US macroeconomic time series, Handbook of Macroeconomics,3-64
[174]Stulz, R.,1990, Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies, Journal of Financial Economics 26,3-28.
[175]Sufi,A.,2006,The real effects of debt Certification:evidence from the introduction of bank loan ratings, University of Chicago Working Paper.
[176]Tirole, J.,2005, The Theory of Corporate Finance, Princeton University Press.
[177]Titman, S., and R.Wessels,1988, The determinants of capital structure choice, Journal of Finance 43,1-19.
[178]Vilasuso, J. and A. Minkler,2001, Agency costs, asset specificity, and the capital structure of the firm, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 44,55-69.
[179]Wang, J.,1994, A model of competitive stock trading volume, Journal of Political Economy 102, 127-168.
[180]Weiss, L.,1990, Bankruptcy resolution:Direct costs and violation of priority of claims, Journal of Financial Economics 27,285-314.
[181]Welch, I.,2004, Capital structure and stock returns. Journal of Political Economy 112,106-131.
[182]Welch,I.,2007, Common flaws in empirical capital structure research, Brown University Working Paper.
[183]Wooldridge, J.M.,2002, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press.
[184]Xu, J.,2007, What Determines Capital Structure? Evidence from Import Competition, University of Chicago Working Paper.
[2]程海波、于蕾和许治林,2005：《资本结构、信贷约束和信贷歧视：上海非国有中小企业的案例》,《世界经济》第8期。
[3]陈晓和单鑫,1999：《债务融资是否会增加上市企业的融资成本?》,《经济研究》第9期。
[4]邓剑琴和朱武祥,2006：《产品市场竞争、股权融资约束与财务激进行为》,《经济学季刊》第3期。
[5]方军雄,2007：《所有制、制度环境与信贷资金配置》,《经济研究》第12期。
[6]冯根福、吴林江和刘世彦,2000：《我国上市公司资本结构形成的影响因素分析》,《经济学家》第5期。
[7]冯玉梅,2006：《基于市场微观结构视角的我国上市公司融资行为研究》,天津大学博士论文。
[8]郭鹏飞,孙培源,2003：《资本结构的行业特征：基于中国上市公司的实证研究》,《经济研究》第5期。
[9]洪道麟、熊德华和刘力,2007：《所有权性质、多元化和资本结构内生性》,《经济学季刊》第4期。
[10 ]洪锡熙和沈艺峰,2000：《我国上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析》,《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第3期。
[11 ]黄少安和张岗,2001：《中国上市公司股权融资偏好》,《经济研究》第11期。
[12]江春、许立诚,2007：《金融发展的政治经济学—兼论中国国有商业银行改革的逻辑》,工作论文。
[13 ]姜付秀和刘志彪,2005：《行业特征、资本结构与产品市场竞争》,《管理世界》第10期。
[14]姜付秀、屈耀辉、陆正飞和李焰,2008：《产品市场竞争与资本结构动态调整》,《经济研究》第4期。
[15]蒋殿春,2003：《中国上市公司资本结构和融资倾向》,《世界经济》第7期。
[16]凯恩斯,1935：《就业、利息与货币通论》,中译本由商务印书馆1996年出版。
[17]李国重,2006：《中国上市公司资本结构的动态目标调整：制度特征导向》,《会计研究》第12期。
[18]李朝霞,2003：《影响中国上市公司融资结构的主要因素分析》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第10期。
[19]李青原和王永海,2006：《资产专用性与公司资本结构》,《会计研究》第7期。
[20]李青原、陈晓和王永海,2007：《产品市场竞争、资产专用性与资本结构——来自中国制造业上市公司的经验证据》,《金融研究》第4期。
[21 ]连玉君和钟经樊,2007：《中国上市公司资本结构动态调整机制研究》,《南方经济》第1期。
[22]刘志彪、姜付秀和卢二坡,2003：《资本结构与产品市场竞争强度》,《经济研究》第7期。
[23]刘星、魏锋和詹宇,2004：《我国上市公司融资顺序的实证研究》,《会计研究》第6期。
[24]陆正飞和辛宇,1998：《上市公司资本结构主要因素之实证研究》,《会计研究》第8期。
[25]陆正飞和高强,2003：《中国上市公司融资行为研究——基于问卷调查的分析》,《会计研究》第10期。
[26]陆正飞和叶康涛,2004：《中国上市公司股权融资偏好解析》,《经济研究》第4期。
]27]陆正飞、祝继高和樊铮,2009：《银根紧缩、信贷歧视与民营上市公司投资者利益损失》《金融研究》2009年第8期
[28]吕长江和王克敏,2002：《上市公司资本结构、股利分配及管理股权比例相互作用机制研究》,《会计研究》第3期。
[29]麦元勋,2008：《我国股票流动性与上市公司资本结构研究》,暨南大学博士论文。
[30]彭方平和王少平,2007： 《我国货币政策的微观效应——基于非线性光滑转换面板模型的实证研究》, 《金融研究》第9期。
[31]屈耀辉,2006：《中国上市公司资本结构的调整速度以及影响因素》,《会计研究》第6期。
[32]屈耀辉、姜付秀和陈朝晖,2007：《资本结构决策具有战略效应吗?》,《管理世界》第2期。
[33]沈根祥和朱平芳,1999：《上市公司资本结构决定因素实证分析》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第5期。
[34]沈维涛和叶晓铭,2004：《EVA对上市公司资本结构影响的实证研究》,《经济研究》第11期。
[35]沈艺峰和田静,1999：《我国上市公司资本成本的定量研究》,《经济研究》第11期。
[36]施华强,2005：《国有商业银行账面不良贷款、调整因素和严重程度：1994—2004年》,《金融研究》第12期。
[37]苏冬蔚,2004：《中国股市流动性与执行成本研究》,《经济科学》第2期。
[38]苏冬蔚,2008：《噪音交易与市场质量》,《经济研究》第9期。
[39]苏冬蔚和曾海舰,2009：《宏观经济因素与公司资本结构变动》,《经济研究》第12期。
[40 ]苏冬蔚和曾海舰,2009：《宏观经济因素、企业家信心与公司融资选择》,暨南大学工作论文。
[41]童盼、陆正飞,2005：《负债融资、负债来源与企业投资行为》,《经济研究》第5期。
[42]王皓和赵俊,2004：《资本结构动态调整模型》,《经济科学》第3期。
[43]王素荣和张新民,2006：《资本结构和所得税税负关系实证研究》,《中国工业经济》第12期。
[44]王永海和范明,2004：《资产专用性视角下的资本结构动态分析》,《中国工业经济》第1期。
[45]王正位、赵冬青和朱武祥,2007：《资本市场磨擦与资本结构调整——来自中国上市公司的证据》,《金融研究》第6期。
[46]吴联生和岳衡,2006：《税率调整和资本结构变动——基于我国取消“先征后返”所得税优惠政策的研究》,《管理世界》第11期。
[47]吴晓波,2008：《激荡三十年》(下册),中信出版社。
[48 ]谢平和袁沁吾,2003：《我国近年利率政策的效果分析》,《金融研究》第3期。
[49]谢平,2004：《中国货币政策分析：1998—2002》,《金融研究》,第8期。
[50]熊彼特,1934：《经济发展理论》,中译本由商务印书馆1990年出版。
[51]肖作平,2004：《资本结构影响因素和双向效应动态模型——来自中国上市公司面板数据的证据》,《会计研究》第2期。
[52]肖作平和吴世农,2002：《我国上市公司资本结构影响因素实证研究》,《证券市场导报》第8期。
[53]余明桂、夏新平和邹振松,2006：《管理者过度自信与企业激进负债行为》,《管理世界》第8期。
[54]叶康涛和祝继高,2009： 《银根紧缩与信贷资源配置》, 《管理世界》2009年第1期。
[56]曾海舰,2010： 《宏观调控与公司价值》, 《金融评论》(中国社科院主办)即将发表。
[56]曾海舰和苏冬蔚,2009： 《信贷政策与公司资本结构》,暨南大学工作论文。
[57]张春,2008：《公司金融学》,中国人民大学出版社。
[58]赵冬青、朱武祥和王正位,2008：《宏观调控与房地产上市公司资本结构调整》,《金融研究》第10期。
[59]张军、郑祖玄和赵涛,2005：《中国上市公司资本结构：股权融资偏好、最优资本结构还是 过度融资?》,《世界经济文汇》第6期。
[60]朱德新和朱洪亮,2007：《中国上市公司资本结构的选择——基于两种主要理论的检验》,《南方经济》第9期。
[61]郑江淮,2001：《信息不对称条件下非国有企业的资金供给》,《经济管理》第12期。
[62]朱武祥、陈寒梅和吴迅,2002：《产品市场竞争与财务保守行为——以燕京啤酒为例的分析》,《经济研究》第8期。
[63]周小川,2004：《当前研究和完善货币政策传导机制应关注的几个问题》,《金融时报》,2004年4月14日。
[64]周英章和蒋振声,2002：《货币渠道、信用渠道与货币政策有效性—中国1993-2001年的实证分析和政策含义》,《金融研究》第9期。
[65]1996-2007年的《中国国民经济与社会发展报告》,北京：中国计划出版社。
[66]1999-2007年的《中国金融年鉴》,中国金融学会编,北京：中国金融年鉴编辑部。
[67]Altman,E.,1984, A Further Empirical Investigation of the Bankruptcy Cost Question, Journal of Finance 39,1067-1089.
[68]Andrade, G., and S.N. Kaplan,1998, How costly is financial (not economic) distress?Evidence from highly leveraged transactions that became distressed, Journal of Finance 53,1443-93.
[69]Angrist, J., Chernozhukov, V. and I. Fernandez-Val,2006, Quantile regression under mis-specification, with an application to the U.S. wage structure, Econometrica 74,539-563.
[70]Angrist, J.,and J.S.Pischke,2008, Mostly Harmless Econometrics:An Empiricist's Companion, Princeton University Press.
[71]Ahn, H.J., Cai, J., Hamao, Y. and R. Ho,2002, The components of the bid-ask spread in a limit-order market:Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Journal of Empirical Finance 9, 399-430.
[72]Auerbach, A.J., and M.A. King,1983, Taxation、 portfolio choice and debt-equity ratios:A general equilibrium model, Quarterly Journal of Economics 98,587-610.
[73]Baker, M. and J. Stein,2004, Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator, Journal of Financial Markets 7,271-299.
[74]Baker, M. and J. Wurgler,2002, Market timing and capital structure, Journal of Finance 57, 1-32.
[75]Baker, M., Ruback, R.S. and J. Wurgler,2007, Behavioral corporate finance:A survey, In: Eckbo, E.:Handbook of Corporate Finance:Empirical Corporate Finance, Volume 1,146-178, Handbooks in Finance, Elsevier.
[76]Baxter, M. and R.G.King,1999, Measuring Business Cycles:Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series, The Review of Economics and Statistics, November81,575-593.
[77]Bayless, M. and S.Chaplinsky,1996, Is there a window of opportunity for seasoned equity issuance? Journal of Finance 51,253-278.
[78]Ben-David, I., Graham, J.R. and C.R. Harvey,2008, Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies, Duke University Working Paper.
[79]Bolton, P. and D. Scharfstein,1990, A Theory of Predation Based on Agency Problems in Financial Contracting, American Economic Review 80,93-106.
[80]Bharath, S., Pasquariello, P. and G. Wu,2008, Does asymmetric information drive capital structure decisions? University of Michigan Working Paper.
[81]Brander, J. and T. Lewis,1986, Oligopoly and Financial Structure:the Limited Liability Effect, American Economic Rewiew 76,956-970.
[82]Brennan, M.J., and E.S. Schwartz,1984, Optimal financial policy and firrm valuation, Journal of Finance 39,593-607.
[83]Butler, A.W., Grullon, G. and J.P. Weston,2005, Stock market liquidity and the cost of issuing equity, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 40,331-348.
[84]Campello, M.,2003, Capital structure and product markets interactions:Evidence from business cycles, Journal of Financial Economics 68,353-378.
[85]Chamberlain, G.,1980, Analysis of variance with qualitative data, Review of Economic Studies 47, 225-238.
[86]Chang,X. and S.Dasgupta, Target Behavior and Financing:How Conclusive is the Evidence? Journal of Finance, Forthcoming.
[87]Chen, H.,2007, Macroeconomic conditions and the puzzles of credit spreads and capital structure, University of Chicago Working Paper.
[88]Chen, L, and X.L., Zhao,2007, Mechanical mean reversion of leverage ratios, Economic Letters 95,223-229.
[89]Chevalier, J.A.,1995, Capital Structure and Product Market Competition:Empirical Evidence from the Supermarket Industry, American Economic Review 85,415-435.
[90]Chevalier, J.A. and D.S.Scharfstein,1996, Capital-Market Imperfections and Countercyclical Markups, American Economic Review 86,703-725.
[91]De Jong, F., Nijman, T. and A. Roell,1996, Price effects of trading and components of the bid-ask spread on the Paris Bourse, Journal of Empirical Finance 3,193-213.
[92]DeAngelo, H., and R.W. Masulis,1980, Optimal capital structure under corporate and personal taxation, Journal of Financial Economics 8,3-29.
[93]Duffie, D., and K.Singleton,2003, Credit Risk:Pricing, Measurement, and Management, Princeton University Press.
[94]Easley, D. and M. O'Hara,2004, Information and the cost of capital, Journal of Finance 59,1553-1583.
[95]Fama, E.,1986, Term premiums and default premiums in money markets, Journal of Financial Economics 17,175-196.
[96]Fama, E.F. and K. French,2002, Testing tradeoff and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt, Review of Financial Studies 15,1-33.
[97]Faulkender, M., and M.A. Petersen,2006, Does the source of capital affect capital structure?, Review of Financial Studies 19,45-79.
[98]Fischer, E.O., Heinkel, R. and J. Zechner,1989, Dynamic capital structure choice:Theory and tests, Journal of Finance 44,19-40.
[99]Flannery, M. J. and K.P. Rangan,2006, Partial adjustment toward target capital, Journal of Financial Economics 79,469-506.
[100]Frank, M.Z. and V.K. Goyal,2008, Trade off and pecking order theories of debt, In:Eckbo, E., Handbook of Corporate Finance:Empirical Corporate Finance, Volume 2, forthcoming in Elsevier.
[101]Frank, M.Z. and V.K. Goyal,2007, Capital structure decisions:Which factors are reliably important? University of Minnesota and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Working Paper.
[102]Frank, M.Z. and V.K. Goyal,2003, Testing the pecking-order theory of capital structure, Journal of Financial Economics 67,217-248.
[103]Frye, J.,2000a, Collateral damage, Risk (April),91-94.
[104]Frye, J.,2000b, Depressing recoveries, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, working paper.
[105]George, T., Kaul, G. and M. Nimalendran,1991, Estimation of the bid-ask spread and its components:A new approach, Review of Financial Studies 4,623-656.
[106]Gertler, M., and S. Gilchrist,1994, Monetary policy, business cycles, and the behavior of small manufacturing firms, Quarterly Journal of Economics 109,309-340.
[107]Gertler, M., and R.G. Hubbard,1993, Corporate Financial Policy、 Taxation and Macroeconomic Risk, RAND Journal of Economics 24,286-303
[108]Glosten, L., and L. Harris,1988, Estimating the components of the bid-ask spread, Journal of Financial Economics 21,123-142.
[109]Goyal, V.K., Lehn, K.M. and S. Racic,2002, Growth opportunities and corporate debt policy: the case of the U.S. defense industry, Journal of Financial Economics 64,35-59
[110]Graham, J.,2000, How big are the tax bene￣ts of debt? Journal of Finance 55,1901-1941.
[111]Graham, J., and C. Harvey,2001, The theory and practice of corporate finance:Evidence from the field, Journal of Financial Economics 60,187-243.
[112]Hackbarth, D.,2005, Determinants of corporate borrowing:A behavioral perspective, University of Illinois Working Paper.
[113]Hackbarth, D.,2008, Managerial traits and capital structure decisions, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming.
[114]Hackbarth, D., Miao, J. and E. Morellec,2006, Capital structure, credit risk, and macroeconomic conditions, Journal of Financial Economics 82,519-550.
[115]Hahn, J., Hausman, J. and G.Kuersteiner,2007, Long difference instrumental variables estimation for dynamic panel models with fixed effects, Journal of Econometrics 140,574-617.
[116]Harris, M. and A. Raviv,1991, The theory of capital structure, Journal of Finance 46,297-355.
[117]Hausman, J. and D. McFadden,1984, A specification test for the multinomial logit model, Econometrica 52,1219-1240.
[118]Heaton, J.B.,2002, Managerial optimism and corporate finance, Financial Management 31, 33-45.
[119]Hennessy, C.A., and T.A. Whited,2005, Debt dynamics, Journal of Finance 60,1129-1165.
[120]Holmstrom,B.,and J.Tirole,1997, Financial intermediation、 loanable funds and the real sector, Quarterly Journal of Economics 112,663-692
[121]Hovakimian, A., Opler, T. and S. Titman,2001, The debt-equity choice, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 36,1-24.
[122]Huang,G. and F.M.Song,2006, The determinants of capital structure:Evidence from China, China Economic Review 17,14-36.
[123]Huang, R. and J.R. Ritter,2008, Testing theories of capital structure and estimating the speed of adjustment, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming.
[124) Jarrow, Robert A,2001, Default parameter estimation using market prices, Financial Analysts Journal 57,75-92.
[125]Jensen, M.C.,1986, Agency costs of free cash flow、 corporate finance and takeovers, American Economic Review 76,323-329.
[126]Jensen, M.C. and W. Meckling,1976, Theory of the firm:Managerial behavior、 agency costs and ownership structure, Journal of Financial Economics 3,305-360.
[127]Jalilvand, A. and R.S. Harris,1984, Corporate behavior in adjusting to capital structure and dividend targets:An econometric study. Journal of Finance 39,127-45.
[128]Jokivuolle, E., and Samu Peura,2003, Incorporating collateral value uncertainty in loss given default estimates and loan-to-value ratios, European Financial Management 9,299-314.
[129]Kale, J.R. and H. Shahrur,2007, Corporate capital structure and characteristics of suppliers and customers, Journal of Financial Economics 83,321-365.
[130]Kane, A., A.J. Marcus, and R.L. McDonald,1984, How big is the tax advantage to debt? Journal of Finance 39,841-853.
[131]Kaplan, S.N., and Luigi Zingales,1997, Do investment-cash flow sensitivities provide useful measures of financing constraints? Quarterly Journal of Economics 112,169-215.
[132]Kemsley, D., and D. Nissim,2002, Valuation of the debt tax shield, Journal of Finance 57, 2045-2073.
[133]Kisgen, D.J.,2006, Credit ratings and capital structure, Journal of Finance 61,1035-1073.
[134]Kiyotaki, N., and J. Moore,1997, Credit Cycles, Journal of Political Economy105,211-248.
[135]Kiyotaki, N., and J. Moore,2002, Balance-Sheet Contagion, American Economic Review92, 46-50.
[136]Kovenock, D., and G.M. Phillips,1995, Capital structure and product-market rivalry:How do we reconcile theory and evidence? American Economic Review 85,403-408.
[137]Kovenock, D., and G.M. Phillips,1997, Capital structure and product market behavior:An examination of plant exit and investment decisions, Review of Financial Studies 10,767-803.
[138]Korajczyk, R.A., and A. Levy,2003, Capital structure choice:Macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints, Journal of Financial Economics,68,75-109.
[139]Kraus, A., and R. Litzenberger,1973, A state-preference model of optimal financial leverage. Journal of Finance 28,911-922.
[140]Leary, M.T.,2008, Bank loan supply、 lender choice and corporate capital structure. Journal of Finance forthcoming.
[141]Leary, M.T., and M.R. Roberts,2005, Do firms rebalance their capital structures? Journal of Finance 60,2575-2619.
[142]Lemmon, M.L., and M.R. Roberts,2007, The response of corporate financing and investment to changes in the supply of credit. University of Pennsylvania Working Paper.
[143]Lemmon, M.L., Roberts, M.R. and J.F. Zender,2008, Back to the beginning:Persistence and the cross-section of corporate capital structure, Journal of Finance 63,1575-1608.
[144]Lesmond,D., O'Connor, P. and L. Senbet,2008, Capital structure and equity liquidity, Tulane University Working Paper.
[145]Levy, A. and C. Hennessy,2007, Why does capital structure choice vary with macroeconomic conditions? Journal of Financial Economics 54:1545-1564.
[146]Lin, J. C., Sanger, G. and G. Booth,1995, Trade size and components of the bid-ask spread, Review of Financial Studies 8,1153-1183.
[147]Little, R.J.A., and D.B. Rubin,2002, Statistical analysis with missing data, second edition, John Wiley & Sons.
[148]Llorente, G., Michaely, R., Saar, G. and J. Wang,2002, Dynamic volume-return relation of individual stocks, Review of Financial Studies 15,1005-1047.
[149]Lipson, M., and S. Mortal,2006, Capital structure decisions and equity market liquidity, University of Virginia Working Paper.
[150]Lucas, D. and R.L. McDonald,1990, Equity issues and stock price dynamics, Journal of Finance 45,1019-1043.
[151]Lyandres, E.,2006, Capital structure and interaction among firms in output markets:Theory and evidence, Journal of Business 79,2381-2421.
[152]Malmendier, U. and G. Tate,2005, CEO overconfidence and corporate investment, Journal of Finance 60,2661-2700.
[153]Malmendier, U. and G. Tate,2007, Corporate Financial Policies with Overconfident Managers, NBER Working Paper 13570.
[154]Maksimovic, V.,1988, Capital structure in repeated oligopolies, RAND Journal of Economics 19, 389-407.
[155]Miao, J.,2005, Optimal capital structure and industry dynamics, Journal of Finance 60, 2621-2659.
[156]Miller, M.H.,1977, Debt and taxes, Journal of Finance 32,261-75.
[157]Modigliani, F. and M.H. Miller,1958, The cost of capital、 corporation finance and the theory of investment, American Economic Review 48,261-297.
[158]Modigliani, F. and M.H. Miller,1963, Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital:A correction, American Economic Review 53,433-443.
[159]Mundlak, Y.,1978, On the pooling of time series and cross section data, Econometrica 46, 69-85.
[160]Myers, S.C.,1977, Determinants of corporate borrowing, Journal of Financial Economics 5, 147-175.
[161]Myers, S.C.,1984, The capital structure puzzle, Journal of Finance 39,575-592.
[162]Myers, S.C.,2001, Capital structure, Journal of Economic Perspectives 15,81-102.
[163]Myers, S.C. and N. Majluf,1984, Corporate financing decisions when firms have information that investors do not have, Journal of Financial Economics 13,187-221.
[164]Papke, L.E. and J.M. Wooldridge,1996, Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401 (k) plan participation rates, Journal of Applied Econometrics 11,619-632.
[165]Papke, L.E. and J.M. Wooldridge,2007, Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates, Michigan State University Working Paper.
[166]Petersen, M.A.,2009, Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets:Comparing approaches, Review of Financial Studies 22,435-480.
[167]Pulvino, T.C.,1998, Do asset fire sales exist? an empirical investigation of commercial aircraft transactions, Journal of Finance 53,939-978.
[168]Rajan, R.G. and L. Zingales,1995, What do we know about capital structure? Some evidence from international data, Journal of Finance 50,1421-1460.
[169]Ross, S.,1977, The determination of financial structure:the incentive-signaling approach, Bell Journal of Economics 8,23-40.
[170]Shleifer, A., and R. Vishny,1992, Liquidation values and debt capacity:A market equilibrium approach, Journal of Finance 47,1343-1366.
[171]Shyam-Sunder, L. and S. Myers,1999, Testing static tradeoff against pecking order models of capital structure, Journal of Financial Economics 51,219-244.
[172]Stein, J.C.,1996, Rational capital budgeting in an irrational world, Journal of Business 69, 429-455.
[173]Stock, J. and M. Watson,1999, Business cycle fluctuations in US macroeconomic time series, Handbook of Macroeconomics,3-64
[174]Stulz, R.,1990, Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies, Journal of Financial Economics 26,3-28.
[175]Sufi,A.,2006,The real effects of debt Certification:evidence from the introduction of bank loan ratings, University of Chicago Working Paper.
[176]Tirole, J.,2005, The Theory of Corporate Finance, Princeton University Press.
[177]Titman, S., and R.Wessels,1988, The determinants of capital structure choice, Journal of Finance 43,1-19.
[178]Vilasuso, J. and A. Minkler,2001, Agency costs, asset specificity, and the capital structure of the firm, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 44,55-69.
[179]Wang, J.,1994, A model of competitive stock trading volume, Journal of Political Economy 102, 127-168.
[180]Weiss, L.,1990, Bankruptcy resolution:Direct costs and violation of priority of claims, Journal of Financial Economics 27,285-314.
[181]Welch, I.,2004, Capital structure and stock returns. Journal of Political Economy 112,106-131.
[182]Welch,I.,2007, Common flaws in empirical capital structure research, Brown University Working Paper.
[183]Wooldridge, J.M.,2002, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press.
[184]Xu, J.,2007, What Determines Capital Structure? Evidence from Import Competition, University of Chicago Working Paper.