中国水稻生产增长与政府管理研究
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摘要
水稻是我国粮食的“硬通货”,全国65%以上人口以稻米为主食,85%以上的稻米是作为口粮消费,在我国城乡居民口粮消费总量中,稻谷年消费量达3500亿斤,水稻产业的发展不仅涉及到1亿多稻农的收入来源,水稻安全更直接关系到国家粮食安全。因此,水稻产业的稳定发展对我国农民的持续增收,国家粮食安全的全面保障以及国民经济的稳定发展具有重要意义。尤其是2008年水稻等粮食作物价格持续暴涨,并出现国际性粮荒,这促使各国加强对粮食产业发展的重视以及对粮食安全重要性的进一步认识。本文也正是在这种背景下着手开展中国水稻产业发展研究的,并将全文分为八章。
本文基于第一章的研究背景及选题思路、第二章的基本经济理论阐述的基础上,第三章首先对中国稻作文化及水稻产业发展状况进行了简单描述,在此基础上,论文运用时间趋势分解模型和谱分析法对中国水稻生产波动特征和波动周期进行了精确度量,并通过方差分解法描述了区域水稻生产波动。研究表明,中国水稻产量波动的周期大多为长波波动,而国家宏观调控是导致改革开放前后我国水稻生产的增长形式发生根本性变化。而就区域波动的影响来看,我国南方水稻生产波动是水稻生产波动的主导力量,并且传统的长江中下游稻区和华南稻区的水稻产量占全国水稻产量的比重均呈显著的下降趋势,而新兴的东北稻区则表现出明显的上升趋势。
第四章主要基于对水稻生产比较利益缺失前提下农民行为的分析,运用局部调整分析法和协整理论探讨了我国农户水稻供给行为及其影响因素,进而从农户与政府博弈的角度论述了我国水稻产业的发展困境,提出解决政府与农户利益冲突的有效政策选择。研究表明,农户微观理性行为与政府利益的冲突是我国水稻产业发展中的利益失衡的表现,而水稻经营收益较低则主要受制于生产成本及国家水稻价格政策的间歇性与非持续性。从农户水稻供给反应角度,水稻产品价格和投入品价格是影响我国农户水稻供给行为的重要因素,而从长期来看,投入品价格负弹性要高于水稻产品价格的正弹性,表明农户对成本上涨的反应要强于稻米产品价格的上涨,农户水稻供给反应具有一定的价格滞后性。在稳定产品价格的基础上,促进水稻技术创新、控制水稻生产成本、建立有效的激励机制保持农业生产效率的持续提高是今后我国水稻生产稳定持续增长的主要方向,而单一地提高水稻产品的价格不仅会导致整体粮食市场价格上涨的危险,也可能并不会达到预期效果.而对于解决政府与农民利益的有效政府选择,本文认为增加对农业科学研究与农业技术推广应用投资及制度改革、提高农民组织化程度是农业持续发展的有效政策选择。
第五章运用协整和误差修正模型,分别考查了水稻公共R&D经费投入与水稻技术创新、水稻公共R&D经费投入与水稻生产率增长、以及水稻技术创新与生产率增长之间的动态关系,进而探寻这种动态关系形成的原因。研究表明,政府水稻科研投入的变化能够有效促进我国水稻育种技术的创新,保障了我国水稻品种的持续创新,而技术创新及水科研投入的变化总体与TFP增长之间并不存在显著的因果关系,仅有应用研究投入的变化对TFP增长具有短期效应。从我国水稻科研投资数量来看,尽管科研投入对技术创新具有显著影响,但我国水稻甚至农业的科研投资强度远远低于其他行业和其他国家、农业科研投资中的基础研究经费占农业科研总经费支出的比重逐年下降的问题仍然比较突出；而对于水稻品种创新和TFP增长之间的联结而言,我国技术创新数量尤其是新品种数量的增加对TFP增长的变化没有显著的长短期相关关系。这种现象的存在,一方面是由于技术创新的质量长时期没有突破性进展,实质性派生品种的数量增加,抑制了原始创新的积极性；其次是由于农业技术推广对农业技术创新成果的转化效率偏低,巨大的技术创新存量与较低的技术采用率形成鲜明对比；此外,分析还发现,我国农业研究机构几乎完全为政府所拥有,技术创新组织具有高度的垄断性,科研投资的分散性就成必然。科研投资的分散特征造就了地域性较强的地方性小品种数量增多,而主导性品种减少,品种区试产量没有突破性提高。
第六章主要从公共技术服务的供给层面,探究公共技术推广的服务途径及农户对水稻技术服务渠道的选择行为,并进一步分析了我国水稻技术推广服务对不同角色农民的经济效应,并从委托-代理人角度考查我国公共技术推广服务激励制度的缺失。研究表明,我国农业技术推广服务总体供给不足,技术推广服务体系不完备,社会化技术服务组织相对薄弱。就农户水稻技术服务渠道的选择行为而言,农户角色的分化导致了技术渠道选择的差异,劳动力转移程度越高的农户总体上选择农技推广部门作为技术渠道的概率会则越低；经营规模越大的农户总体上选择农技推广部门为技术渠道的概率也就越大,但病虫害防治技术的选择例外。此外,就水稻公共技术服务的影响分析表明,技术推广服务均有效改善了劳动力投入和机械投入的质量,提高了劳动和机械生产率,促进经营规模对水稻产出的正向效应。然而,推广体系激励制度的缺失很大程度上却限制了技术服务职能的有效发挥。
第七章从专业合作组织的制度创新角度,探索了我国不同地区水稻专业合作社成长路径与总体特征,研究专业合作制度创新对我国水稻产业发展的影响。分析表明,专业合作社制度确实能够有效提高稻农组织化程度,有利于缓解稻农市场信息不对称程度、降低农业生产的社会和自然风险以及降低交易成本并实现规模经济。此外,通过对比分析,建立水稻专业合作社促进了成员之间的土地流转,降低劳动力转移后普遍出现的抛荒、撂荒现象。但就水稻专业合作社区域非均衡性发展而言,区域间经济社会环境的差异决定了水稻专业合作社成长路径的差异性,继而导致政府在专业合作组织发展过程中需要发挥的作用就有所不同,水稻主销区的诱致性制度创新与主产区的强制性制度创新对比鲜明。
第八章根据前文的相关分析,从水稻科研投资、公共技术推广服务的体系建设、农民培训、产业发展方向等角度提出了稳定发展我国水稻产业、保障粮食安全的可操作性对策和建议。
Rice is the "Hard Currency" of the foodstuff. Roughly 65 percent of Chinese people depend on rice as its principal staple food, and 85 percent rice is used as food, which comes to 350 billion in grain consumption of urban and rural residents in China. Rice industry development concerns to the economic interests of more than one hundred million farmers, so that rice food safety concerns to the food safety indirectly. Therefore, whether the rice industry development is stable or not will directly influence farms'production and incomes increasingly, the food safety of the whole country, and influence the national economy and the people's livelihood further. Especially, food storage stalked through the country with grain price rising steadily, which attracts worldwide attention to the development of grain and food safety. Faced with the factors restricting agricultural development such as cultivated land, water resources and so on, the paper believes that the national agricultural technology policy and institutional innovations should be perfected so as to solve the problems concerning rice. The paper makes a detailed study of it under the background characteristic of times and is divided into nine chapters.
Based on research background, the research meanings of theory and practice in chapter one, and basic economic theory in chapter two, the thesis measures the fluctuant characteristics and the cycle of fluctuations through decomposing time trend and spectral analysis in chapter three, describing the fluctuation of regional rice production by variance decomposition analysis. The results show that long wave is primary style to rice production fluctuation in China. Meanwhile, the growth mode of rice production takes fundamental changes in two periods between before and since reform and opening because of national macro-control. As the fluctuation of regional rice production, the fluctuation of southern rice production is the main contribution to the fluctuation of rice production in China, while the proportion of rice yield in traditional Lower Yangtze Region and South China have been decreasing in whole country, but the proportion of Northeast China showing an increasing trend.
The thesis analyzes primarily economic behavior of peasants by the premise of lower comparative interest for rice production in Chapter four. The thesis indicated supply behavior of peasants together with its main influenced factors, using co-integration test and PAM, and discussing the most crucial obstacles to sustainable development for rice industry furthermore. The results show that the conflicts of peasants and government are economic performance of the interest imbalance in the development of rice industry, and meanwhile, lower income of rice was mainly reflected in the cost of production and national grain price policy on intermittent. From the perspective of the rice supply of farmers, rice prices and input prices affect mainly the rice supply of farmers in China. However, in the long term, the negative price elasticity of inputs is higher than the price elasticity of rice, which indicates that the response of farmers to increasing production cost is more than the rising prices of rice products, as a certain lag for rice supply. On the basis of stabilizing prices, increasing the efficiency of agricultural production continuously is the main direction of rice production growth in China, by promoting technological innovation, controlling rice production costs and establishment of an effective incentive mechanism, while government separately raising the price of rice would not only lead to an overall food price increasing the risk of the market, also not achieve the desired results.
The thesis would analyze, by the model of VECM, the dynamic relations between public R&D investment and technology innovation for rice, the dynamic relations between public R&D investment and the productivity growth of rice, and the dynamic relations between technology innovation and the productivity growth of rice in Chapter five. Although invest in research had a notable impact to technique innovation, some problems still existed obviously, such as the invest in rice or even agriculture research in our country was far more lower than other industries and countries, and the proportion of basic research finance to the total agriculture research outlay was falling down year by year. The lack of invest in basic research would show a continuance impact to technique innovation. Moreover, the amount of technique innovation in our country, especially the increase of new variety quantity, did not have a remarkable long-or-short term correlativity with the TFP increase. On one hand, it was because that there was not any breakthrough in the technique innovation quality in a long period. Increase of essentially derived variety amount had restrained the original innovation enthusiasm, which come down to the "derived variety" regulation in our new plant variety protect system. On the other hand, it become the sharp contrast to huge stock of technological innovation and lower the rate of adoption of the technology, because of low transformation ratio of agricultural science and technology by agricultural extension. In addition, the analysis also shows that agricultural research institutes in China are almost entirely owned by the government, which lead the high degree of monopoly to the organization of technological innovation, so as to the decentralized R & D investment inevitably. Moreover, the decentralized R & D investment results in the breeding of a number of rice varieties for few extension areas, and reduces the dominant species, so as to the production of varieties in Regional Trials without a breakthrough.
Through the study on selection behaviors of peasant's rice technology channel and the influence of public service on rice technology, the followed conclusions were obtained: Agricultural extension service showed overall undersupply in China, and there was a ubiquitous fact that farmers used experience rather than science-style during rice planting. In the aspect of channel selection of Agricultural extension service, differentiation of peasants' role had led to some differences in their choice of technology channels. The higher the degree of labor transfered, the lower the probability that peasants would choose Agricultural extension sectors as their channel.The greater the peasants'scale of operation, the larger the probability that they would choose Agricultural extension sectors as their channel. However, in terms of pest control technology, it showed a reverse result.In addition, the study on influences of public services in rice technology showed that the technical extension services had effectivly improved the quality of labor force and mechanical inputs, increased the productivity on both labor and machinery, promoted the positive effect of scale-operation to rice output. However, the lack of incentive systems had limited the technical services functions to be effectively to a great extent.
Based on previous research on investment of rice R&D and public technology services, this paper discussed more deeply that the professional cooperative had promotion impact to the development of rice industry, from the farmers professional cooperative system innovation cases of Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces. Survey data from the two provinces showed that the system of professional cooperatives had effectively improved the degree of organization of rice farmers, reduced the degree of information asymmetry of market, reduced the social and natural risks during agricultural production, reduced transaction costs and achieved scale economy. In addition, the establishment of rice professional cooperatives promoted land transfer among the members, which reduced the universal phenomenon of Farmlands Abandoned after labor transfer.However, inter-regional differences in economic and social environment decided the differences of the ways that professional cooperatives developed, as well as the need of Government functions. There was a remarkably contrast between the system innovation caused by inducement in main rice sell area and by constraint in main rice produce area.
本文基于第一章的研究背景及选题思路、第二章的基本经济理论阐述的基础上,第三章首先对中国稻作文化及水稻产业发展状况进行了简单描述,在此基础上,论文运用时间趋势分解模型和谱分析法对中国水稻生产波动特征和波动周期进行了精确度量,并通过方差分解法描述了区域水稻生产波动。研究表明,中国水稻产量波动的周期大多为长波波动,而国家宏观调控是导致改革开放前后我国水稻生产的增长形式发生根本性变化。而就区域波动的影响来看,我国南方水稻生产波动是水稻生产波动的主导力量,并且传统的长江中下游稻区和华南稻区的水稻产量占全国水稻产量的比重均呈显著的下降趋势,而新兴的东北稻区则表现出明显的上升趋势。
第四章主要基于对水稻生产比较利益缺失前提下农民行为的分析,运用局部调整分析法和协整理论探讨了我国农户水稻供给行为及其影响因素,进而从农户与政府博弈的角度论述了我国水稻产业的发展困境,提出解决政府与农户利益冲突的有效政策选择。研究表明,农户微观理性行为与政府利益的冲突是我国水稻产业发展中的利益失衡的表现,而水稻经营收益较低则主要受制于生产成本及国家水稻价格政策的间歇性与非持续性。从农户水稻供给反应角度,水稻产品价格和投入品价格是影响我国农户水稻供给行为的重要因素,而从长期来看,投入品价格负弹性要高于水稻产品价格的正弹性,表明农户对成本上涨的反应要强于稻米产品价格的上涨,农户水稻供给反应具有一定的价格滞后性。在稳定产品价格的基础上,促进水稻技术创新、控制水稻生产成本、建立有效的激励机制保持农业生产效率的持续提高是今后我国水稻生产稳定持续增长的主要方向,而单一地提高水稻产品的价格不仅会导致整体粮食市场价格上涨的危险,也可能并不会达到预期效果.而对于解决政府与农民利益的有效政府选择,本文认为增加对农业科学研究与农业技术推广应用投资及制度改革、提高农民组织化程度是农业持续发展的有效政策选择。
第五章运用协整和误差修正模型,分别考查了水稻公共R&D经费投入与水稻技术创新、水稻公共R&D经费投入与水稻生产率增长、以及水稻技术创新与生产率增长之间的动态关系,进而探寻这种动态关系形成的原因。研究表明,政府水稻科研投入的变化能够有效促进我国水稻育种技术的创新,保障了我国水稻品种的持续创新,而技术创新及水科研投入的变化总体与TFP增长之间并不存在显著的因果关系,仅有应用研究投入的变化对TFP增长具有短期效应。从我国水稻科研投资数量来看,尽管科研投入对技术创新具有显著影响,但我国水稻甚至农业的科研投资强度远远低于其他行业和其他国家、农业科研投资中的基础研究经费占农业科研总经费支出的比重逐年下降的问题仍然比较突出；而对于水稻品种创新和TFP增长之间的联结而言,我国技术创新数量尤其是新品种数量的增加对TFP增长的变化没有显著的长短期相关关系。这种现象的存在,一方面是由于技术创新的质量长时期没有突破性进展,实质性派生品种的数量增加,抑制了原始创新的积极性；其次是由于农业技术推广对农业技术创新成果的转化效率偏低,巨大的技术创新存量与较低的技术采用率形成鲜明对比；此外,分析还发现,我国农业研究机构几乎完全为政府所拥有,技术创新组织具有高度的垄断性,科研投资的分散性就成必然。科研投资的分散特征造就了地域性较强的地方性小品种数量增多,而主导性品种减少,品种区试产量没有突破性提高。
第六章主要从公共技术服务的供给层面,探究公共技术推广的服务途径及农户对水稻技术服务渠道的选择行为,并进一步分析了我国水稻技术推广服务对不同角色农民的经济效应,并从委托-代理人角度考查我国公共技术推广服务激励制度的缺失。研究表明,我国农业技术推广服务总体供给不足,技术推广服务体系不完备,社会化技术服务组织相对薄弱。就农户水稻技术服务渠道的选择行为而言,农户角色的分化导致了技术渠道选择的差异,劳动力转移程度越高的农户总体上选择农技推广部门作为技术渠道的概率会则越低；经营规模越大的农户总体上选择农技推广部门为技术渠道的概率也就越大,但病虫害防治技术的选择例外。此外,就水稻公共技术服务的影响分析表明,技术推广服务均有效改善了劳动力投入和机械投入的质量,提高了劳动和机械生产率,促进经营规模对水稻产出的正向效应。然而,推广体系激励制度的缺失很大程度上却限制了技术服务职能的有效发挥。
第七章从专业合作组织的制度创新角度,探索了我国不同地区水稻专业合作社成长路径与总体特征,研究专业合作制度创新对我国水稻产业发展的影响。分析表明,专业合作社制度确实能够有效提高稻农组织化程度,有利于缓解稻农市场信息不对称程度、降低农业生产的社会和自然风险以及降低交易成本并实现规模经济。此外,通过对比分析,建立水稻专业合作社促进了成员之间的土地流转,降低劳动力转移后普遍出现的抛荒、撂荒现象。但就水稻专业合作社区域非均衡性发展而言,区域间经济社会环境的差异决定了水稻专业合作社成长路径的差异性,继而导致政府在专业合作组织发展过程中需要发挥的作用就有所不同,水稻主销区的诱致性制度创新与主产区的强制性制度创新对比鲜明。
第八章根据前文的相关分析,从水稻科研投资、公共技术推广服务的体系建设、农民培训、产业发展方向等角度提出了稳定发展我国水稻产业、保障粮食安全的可操作性对策和建议。
Rice is the "Hard Currency" of the foodstuff. Roughly 65 percent of Chinese people depend on rice as its principal staple food, and 85 percent rice is used as food, which comes to 350 billion in grain consumption of urban and rural residents in China. Rice industry development concerns to the economic interests of more than one hundred million farmers, so that rice food safety concerns to the food safety indirectly. Therefore, whether the rice industry development is stable or not will directly influence farms'production and incomes increasingly, the food safety of the whole country, and influence the national economy and the people's livelihood further. Especially, food storage stalked through the country with grain price rising steadily, which attracts worldwide attention to the development of grain and food safety. Faced with the factors restricting agricultural development such as cultivated land, water resources and so on, the paper believes that the national agricultural technology policy and institutional innovations should be perfected so as to solve the problems concerning rice. The paper makes a detailed study of it under the background characteristic of times and is divided into nine chapters.
Based on research background, the research meanings of theory and practice in chapter one, and basic economic theory in chapter two, the thesis measures the fluctuant characteristics and the cycle of fluctuations through decomposing time trend and spectral analysis in chapter three, describing the fluctuation of regional rice production by variance decomposition analysis. The results show that long wave is primary style to rice production fluctuation in China. Meanwhile, the growth mode of rice production takes fundamental changes in two periods between before and since reform and opening because of national macro-control. As the fluctuation of regional rice production, the fluctuation of southern rice production is the main contribution to the fluctuation of rice production in China, while the proportion of rice yield in traditional Lower Yangtze Region and South China have been decreasing in whole country, but the proportion of Northeast China showing an increasing trend.
The thesis analyzes primarily economic behavior of peasants by the premise of lower comparative interest for rice production in Chapter four. The thesis indicated supply behavior of peasants together with its main influenced factors, using co-integration test and PAM, and discussing the most crucial obstacles to sustainable development for rice industry furthermore. The results show that the conflicts of peasants and government are economic performance of the interest imbalance in the development of rice industry, and meanwhile, lower income of rice was mainly reflected in the cost of production and national grain price policy on intermittent. From the perspective of the rice supply of farmers, rice prices and input prices affect mainly the rice supply of farmers in China. However, in the long term, the negative price elasticity of inputs is higher than the price elasticity of rice, which indicates that the response of farmers to increasing production cost is more than the rising prices of rice products, as a certain lag for rice supply. On the basis of stabilizing prices, increasing the efficiency of agricultural production continuously is the main direction of rice production growth in China, by promoting technological innovation, controlling rice production costs and establishment of an effective incentive mechanism, while government separately raising the price of rice would not only lead to an overall food price increasing the risk of the market, also not achieve the desired results.
The thesis would analyze, by the model of VECM, the dynamic relations between public R&D investment and technology innovation for rice, the dynamic relations between public R&D investment and the productivity growth of rice, and the dynamic relations between technology innovation and the productivity growth of rice in Chapter five. Although invest in research had a notable impact to technique innovation, some problems still existed obviously, such as the invest in rice or even agriculture research in our country was far more lower than other industries and countries, and the proportion of basic research finance to the total agriculture research outlay was falling down year by year. The lack of invest in basic research would show a continuance impact to technique innovation. Moreover, the amount of technique innovation in our country, especially the increase of new variety quantity, did not have a remarkable long-or-short term correlativity with the TFP increase. On one hand, it was because that there was not any breakthrough in the technique innovation quality in a long period. Increase of essentially derived variety amount had restrained the original innovation enthusiasm, which come down to the "derived variety" regulation in our new plant variety protect system. On the other hand, it become the sharp contrast to huge stock of technological innovation and lower the rate of adoption of the technology, because of low transformation ratio of agricultural science and technology by agricultural extension. In addition, the analysis also shows that agricultural research institutes in China are almost entirely owned by the government, which lead the high degree of monopoly to the organization of technological innovation, so as to the decentralized R & D investment inevitably. Moreover, the decentralized R & D investment results in the breeding of a number of rice varieties for few extension areas, and reduces the dominant species, so as to the production of varieties in Regional Trials without a breakthrough.
Through the study on selection behaviors of peasant's rice technology channel and the influence of public service on rice technology, the followed conclusions were obtained: Agricultural extension service showed overall undersupply in China, and there was a ubiquitous fact that farmers used experience rather than science-style during rice planting. In the aspect of channel selection of Agricultural extension service, differentiation of peasants' role had led to some differences in their choice of technology channels. The higher the degree of labor transfered, the lower the probability that peasants would choose Agricultural extension sectors as their channel.The greater the peasants'scale of operation, the larger the probability that they would choose Agricultural extension sectors as their channel. However, in terms of pest control technology, it showed a reverse result.In addition, the study on influences of public services in rice technology showed that the technical extension services had effectivly improved the quality of labor force and mechanical inputs, increased the productivity on both labor and machinery, promoted the positive effect of scale-operation to rice output. However, the lack of incentive systems had limited the technical services functions to be effectively to a great extent.
Based on previous research on investment of rice R&D and public technology services, this paper discussed more deeply that the professional cooperative had promotion impact to the development of rice industry, from the farmers professional cooperative system innovation cases of Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces. Survey data from the two provinces showed that the system of professional cooperatives had effectively improved the degree of organization of rice farmers, reduced the degree of information asymmetry of market, reduced the social and natural risks during agricultural production, reduced transaction costs and achieved scale economy. In addition, the establishment of rice professional cooperatives promoted land transfer among the members, which reduced the universal phenomenon of Farmlands Abandoned after labor transfer.However, inter-regional differences in economic and social environment decided the differences of the ways that professional cooperatives developed, as well as the need of Government functions. There was a remarkably contrast between the system innovation caused by inducement in main rice sell area and by constraint in main rice produce area.
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