建筑承包商在施工过程中的风险研究
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摘要
建设工程项目由于工期长、投资大，参与主体多，组织关系复杂，在实施过程中不确定性因素很多。因而，建筑承包商在项目实施过程的各个阶段将面临各种风险，而在工程项目实施的全过程中，施工阶段的风险最大。因为在这一阶段，有大量的资金投入到购买或租用施工设备，垫付工程款、支付工作人员工资等。由此可见，施工阶段的风险管理显得极为重要。为了工程项目顺利进行，作为建筑施工企业尤其有必要对施工过程认真地进行风险管理。施工阶段的风险管理实质上是一个降低风险负面影响的决策过程，该决策过程包括识别、估计与评价、处理及后评价几个阶段。
本文所做的主要工作如下：
1．从风险管理的目的和意义入手，对风险的定义、性质、分类以及风险管理的目标和程序做了重要论述。
2．本文采用先分类后识别的形式，将施工阶段从不同角度考虑可能遇到的风险按不同分类标准制定成一张风险识别表。这种方法的优点在于：一是可以充分发挥分析人员的专业特长，提高识别的准确性；二是可以减少分析的工作量，节约时间，还可以基本杜绝风险因素的遗漏，能使风险因素识别更全面。
3．介绍了几种常用的风险估计评价方法后，通过对郑州地区在建工程运用专家调查法的实例，重点阐述了在施工阶段调查表的制定和调查程序、数据的统计与分析；又鉴于施工过程中风险层次性和模糊性的特点，采用将层次分析法与模糊综合评价相结合的方法——多层次模糊综合评价用于风险估计与评价。
4．针对施工阶段建筑承包商面临的最大的风险是来自业主的资信问题，本文从我国现有的工程保险和担保制度存在的问题出发，通过对保险和担保制度的改革和立法确保解决业主资信问题。
5．以一个房地产开发项目施工阶段的风险管理为例，综合运用了风险识别、估计与评价和风险管理对策的理论和方法，进行了实例分析。阐述了对建筑承包商在施上过程中进行风险管理的具体运用和程序。
Construction engineering project is characterized by a long-term work, huge investment, many participants and complex relationships, therefore, there are lots of undefined factors in the performing process. This characteristic determines that the construction contracting enterprises will face many risks in every stage of the whole process especially in the construction stage. Because at that moment much capital will be put into purchasing or renting equipments, prepaying construction fees and paying staffs salary, etc. It's necessary for the construction contracting enterprises to do risk management in the whole work process so that the project can go smoothly. In nature the risk management is a deciding process of reduce the negative respects of risks, which includes stages of identification, estimation evaluation, settlement and re-evaluation.
What this paper deals with are as following:
1. Basing on the purpose and functions of risk management it illustrates the definition, character, classification of risk as well as the aim and process of risk management.
2. Adopting the form of classification before identification this paper formulates a table of risk identification from different angles, which may occur in the construction stage. This method has two advantages: one is to let analysts show their specialities and improve the accuracy; the other is to reduce analysis work and save time as well as to make complete identification of risk factors.
3. After introducing several common risk evaluation method, this paper emphasise to illustrate the formulation of risk investigation table , the process of investigation and static and analysis of data by introducing the example of expert investigation method applied in construction engineering in Zhengzhou ; Meanwhile, it applies the combination of analytic hierarchy process and vague assessment method into the risk estimation and evaluation
4. The biggest risk faced by construction contractors comes from the investors' capital and credit. This paper settles the problems by informing and law making of the insurance and guarantee.
5. This paper applies an example about risk management of construction stage in estate exploring project and uses risk identification, estimation, evaluation and management to analyse the example. At the same time it illustrates the risk management application and process in the construction stage.
本文所做的主要工作如下：
1．从风险管理的目的和意义入手，对风险的定义、性质、分类以及风险管理的目标和程序做了重要论述。
2．本文采用先分类后识别的形式，将施工阶段从不同角度考虑可能遇到的风险按不同分类标准制定成一张风险识别表。这种方法的优点在于：一是可以充分发挥分析人员的专业特长，提高识别的准确性；二是可以减少分析的工作量，节约时间，还可以基本杜绝风险因素的遗漏，能使风险因素识别更全面。
3．介绍了几种常用的风险估计评价方法后，通过对郑州地区在建工程运用专家调查法的实例，重点阐述了在施工阶段调查表的制定和调查程序、数据的统计与分析；又鉴于施工过程中风险层次性和模糊性的特点，采用将层次分析法与模糊综合评价相结合的方法——多层次模糊综合评价用于风险估计与评价。
4．针对施工阶段建筑承包商面临的最大的风险是来自业主的资信问题，本文从我国现有的工程保险和担保制度存在的问题出发，通过对保险和担保制度的改革和立法确保解决业主资信问题。
5．以一个房地产开发项目施工阶段的风险管理为例，综合运用了风险识别、估计与评价和风险管理对策的理论和方法，进行了实例分析。阐述了对建筑承包商在施上过程中进行风险管理的具体运用和程序。
Construction engineering project is characterized by a long-term work, huge investment, many participants and complex relationships, therefore, there are lots of undefined factors in the performing process. This characteristic determines that the construction contracting enterprises will face many risks in every stage of the whole process especially in the construction stage. Because at that moment much capital will be put into purchasing or renting equipments, prepaying construction fees and paying staffs salary, etc. It's necessary for the construction contracting enterprises to do risk management in the whole work process so that the project can go smoothly. In nature the risk management is a deciding process of reduce the negative respects of risks, which includes stages of identification, estimation evaluation, settlement and re-evaluation.
What this paper deals with are as following:
1. Basing on the purpose and functions of risk management it illustrates the definition, character, classification of risk as well as the aim and process of risk management.
2. Adopting the form of classification before identification this paper formulates a table of risk identification from different angles, which may occur in the construction stage. This method has two advantages: one is to let analysts show their specialities and improve the accuracy; the other is to reduce analysis work and save time as well as to make complete identification of risk factors.
3. After introducing several common risk evaluation method, this paper emphasise to illustrate the formulation of risk investigation table , the process of investigation and static and analysis of data by introducing the example of expert investigation method applied in construction engineering in Zhengzhou ; Meanwhile, it applies the combination of analytic hierarchy process and vague assessment method into the risk estimation and evaluation
4. The biggest risk faced by construction contractors comes from the investors' capital and credit. This paper settles the problems by informing and law making of the insurance and guarantee.
5. This paper applies an example about risk management of construction stage in estate exploring project and uses risk identification, estimation, evaluation and management to analyse the example. At the same time it illustrates the risk management application and process in the construction stage.
引文
[1] 谢永成．建筑企业风险与防范[J]．建筑经济，2002(4)，23-24
[2] 洪锡熙．风险管理[M]．广州：暨南大学出版社，1999，12-13．
[3] 于九如．投资项目风险分析[M]．北京：机械工业出版社，1999，5-7
[4] 宋明哲．风险管理
[5] Robert N.Charette. Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management.New.York:Mc Graw-Hill Book Company 1989
[6] 谢志刚，韩天雄编著．风险管理与非寿险精算[M]．天津：南开大学出版社，2000
[7] Widemen Rw. Risk Management Project Management Journal,198617(4)
[8] (美)特瑞斯．普雷切特等．风险管理与保险．孙祁祥译．北京：中国社会科学出版社，1989 1-2
[9] 雷胜强．国际工程风险管理与保险[M]，北京：中国建筑工业出版社，1996．
[10] R. Gareis. Handboook of Management by Project. MANZ. Vienna,1990.
[11] J. Turner. The Handbook of Project-based Management. McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1993.
[12] 赵振宇．故障树法引入工程项目风险管理研究[J]．现代典礼，2002(4)，95-96
[13] 尹志军．我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J]．基建优化，2002(4)，6-9
[14] 朱洪娣等．建筑企业的风险管理[J]．建筑技术，第21卷．
[15] 王传玺．国内工程的分包管理[J]．建筑管理现代化，2000(3)，25-26
[16] 顾德敏．试论建筑施工企业的风险规避[J]．浙江社会科学，1995(6)，117-118
[17] 王德海．现代项目管理的理论与方法[M]．北京：中国农业出版社，1998
[18] 闫家杰等．模糊数学基础[M]．郑州：河南教育出版社，1993．
[19] 闫兆林等．AHP在概率风险评价中的应用[J]．工业与防尘，2001(5)，33-36．
[20] 毕星，邓韬著．项目管理精要[M]．北京：化学工业出版社，2002．7
[21] 吴慈生．事故损失的风险概率预测模型与应用研究[J]．数理统计与管理，1997(1)．26
[22] 尹贻林主编．工程造价管理相关知识[M]．北京：中国计划出版社，2001(4)，81
[23] 李彬．浅议建筑工程企业风险管理[J]．安徽建筑．1999(5)，130-131
[24] 刘炳南．工程招标承包中的风险研究[J]．西安建筑科技大学学报．1999(2)，320-323
[25] Roozbeh Kangar, Risk Management Perception And Trends of U.S. Construction; J. Constr.Engrg. And Mgmt., ASCE,Vol. 121,NO.4,422-429
[26] Terry M Williams. Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1994,12(1)
[27] Hull J K Application of risk analysis techniques in proposal assessment[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1990,8(3)
[28] L. Y shen,George W. C. Wu;Risk Assessment for Constr. Engrg. And Mgut.,
ASCE,Vol. 127,NO. 1,76-81
[29] L. Bing, Robert Lee-Kong Tiog; Risk Management in International Construction Joint Ventures, J. constr. Engrg.And Mgmt.,ASCE,Vol.125,NO.4,227-284
[30] 柯慧新，黄京华．调查研究的统计分析法[M]．北京：北京广播学院出版社，1992．7
[31] 许树柏．层次分析法原理[M]．天津：天津大学出版社，1988．
[32] 王莲芬等．层次分析法引论[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1988．
[33] 杨伦标．模糊数学原理及应用．广州：华南理工大学出版社．1998
[34] Xu T J. and Tiong R T L., Risk Management of Tendering/Bidding Strategies Project Management in the 21stCentury:Knowkede Economy and the Development of Western china, Xian, Shanxi Science & Technology Press,Oct. 2000
[35] 许天戈．风险控制理论在国际建筑承包中的应用[J]．基建优化，2001(1)，18-22．
[36] 安忠等．工程项目的风险分析与管理[J]．中国港湾建设，1999(2)，42-43．
[37] 载雪峰．投资项目风险管理技术研究[J]：技术经济与管理研究，1999(3)，37-38．
[38] 朱俪芸．亟待发展的建设工程保险[J]．基建优化，2000(8)
[39] 王进等．论入世后工程风险管理制度的建立[J]．基建优化．2002(8)，11-14．
[40] Ranasinghe M., Risk management in the insurance industry: insights for the engineering construction industry. Constrution Management and Economics, Vol.16,1998.
[41] 吴增玉等．中美建设工程风险管理体系比较研究[J]．建筑经济，1999(3)，10-13．
[2] 洪锡熙．风险管理[M]．广州：暨南大学出版社，1999，12-13．
[3] 于九如．投资项目风险分析[M]．北京：机械工业出版社，1999，5-7
[4] 宋明哲．风险管理
[5] Robert N.Charette. Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management.New.York:Mc Graw-Hill Book Company 1989
[6] 谢志刚，韩天雄编著．风险管理与非寿险精算[M]．天津：南开大学出版社，2000
[7] Widemen Rw. Risk Management Project Management Journal,198617(4)
[8] (美)特瑞斯．普雷切特等．风险管理与保险．孙祁祥译．北京：中国社会科学出版社，1989 1-2
[9] 雷胜强．国际工程风险管理与保险[M]，北京：中国建筑工业出版社，1996．
[10] R. Gareis. Handboook of Management by Project. MANZ. Vienna,1990.
[11] J. Turner. The Handbook of Project-based Management. McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1993.
[12] 赵振宇．故障树法引入工程项目风险管理研究[J]．现代典礼，2002(4)，95-96
[13] 尹志军．我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J]．基建优化，2002(4)，6-9
[14] 朱洪娣等．建筑企业的风险管理[J]．建筑技术，第21卷．
[15] 王传玺．国内工程的分包管理[J]．建筑管理现代化，2000(3)，25-26
[16] 顾德敏．试论建筑施工企业的风险规避[J]．浙江社会科学，1995(6)，117-118
[17] 王德海．现代项目管理的理论与方法[M]．北京：中国农业出版社，1998
[18] 闫家杰等．模糊数学基础[M]．郑州：河南教育出版社，1993．
[19] 闫兆林等．AHP在概率风险评价中的应用[J]．工业与防尘，2001(5)，33-36．
[20] 毕星，邓韬著．项目管理精要[M]．北京：化学工业出版社，2002．7
[21] 吴慈生．事故损失的风险概率预测模型与应用研究[J]．数理统计与管理，1997(1)．26
[22] 尹贻林主编．工程造价管理相关知识[M]．北京：中国计划出版社，2001(4)，81
[23] 李彬．浅议建筑工程企业风险管理[J]．安徽建筑．1999(5)，130-131
[24] 刘炳南．工程招标承包中的风险研究[J]．西安建筑科技大学学报．1999(2)，320-323
[25] Roozbeh Kangar, Risk Management Perception And Trends of U.S. Construction; J. Constr.Engrg. And Mgmt., ASCE,Vol. 121,NO.4,422-429
[26] Terry M Williams. Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1994,12(1)
[27] Hull J K Application of risk analysis techniques in proposal assessment[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1990,8(3)
[28] L. Y shen,George W. C. Wu;Risk Assessment for Constr. Engrg. And Mgut.,
ASCE,Vol. 127,NO. 1,76-81
[29] L. Bing, Robert Lee-Kong Tiog; Risk Management in International Construction Joint Ventures, J. constr. Engrg.And Mgmt.,ASCE,Vol.125,NO.4,227-284
[30] 柯慧新，黄京华．调查研究的统计分析法[M]．北京：北京广播学院出版社，1992．7
[31] 许树柏．层次分析法原理[M]．天津：天津大学出版社，1988．
[32] 王莲芬等．层次分析法引论[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，1988．
[33] 杨伦标．模糊数学原理及应用．广州：华南理工大学出版社．1998
[34] Xu T J. and Tiong R T L., Risk Management of Tendering/Bidding Strategies Project Management in the 21stCentury:Knowkede Economy and the Development of Western china, Xian, Shanxi Science & Technology Press,Oct. 2000
[35] 许天戈．风险控制理论在国际建筑承包中的应用[J]．基建优化，2001(1)，18-22．
[36] 安忠等．工程项目的风险分析与管理[J]．中国港湾建设，1999(2)，42-43．
[37] 载雪峰．投资项目风险管理技术研究[J]：技术经济与管理研究，1999(3)，37-38．
[38] 朱俪芸．亟待发展的建设工程保险[J]．基建优化，2000(8)
[39] 王进等．论入世后工程风险管理制度的建立[J]．基建优化．2002(8)，11-14．
[40] Ranasinghe M., Risk management in the insurance industry: insights for the engineering construction industry. Constrution Management and Economics, Vol.16,1998.
[41] 吴增玉等．中美建设工程风险管理体系比较研究[J]．建筑经济，1999(3)，10-13．