半干旱半湿润流域洪水预报模型的研制及应用
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摘要
在流域水文模型的研制工作中,南方湿润地区的工作做的较多,计算方法也比较成熟,而半干旱半湿润(后文简称半干湿)地区的工作做的较少,无论国外的还是国内的流域水文模型,在半干湿地区使用时都不同程度存在问题。因此深入研究半干湿地区的水文模拟具有一定理论意义和重要实用价值。
本文首先较全面地分析了各类水文模型特点及不足,重点分析了现有半干湿地区水文模型的特点和不足,特别是对半干湿地区双超产流模型,利用对比和分类等方法对双超模型的结构、参数和存在的问题等方面做了全面细致的剖析。同时利用系统建模的理论对新安江模型在湿润地区成功应用的原因做了全面的剖析。
在对新安江模型和双超模型综合客观的全面分析及对半干湿地区水文特性再认识之后,以系统建模的理论与实践经验,建立了一个针对半干湿地区的新的水文模型—SAH模型(semi-arid and semi-humid的缩写)。然后详细地介绍了SAH模型的结构部件以及模型的特点。
为了检验SAH模型的有效性,将SAH模型、双超模型和新安江模型同时应用于山西文峪河上游流域。通过14个场次降雨径流资料的模拟计算,可以看出：SAH模型相对于其他两个模型具有其独到的优点,其模型结构合理,不存在明显的系统偏差,模型的参数设置也符合系统建模的要求,而且模型模拟效果良好。
水文模型参数设置的合理性对模型来说是至关重要的。在本文的最后一章中,利用实际流域模拟所得参数结果对参数间的相关性和各个参数的敏感性做了分析,通过分析得出这样的结论：SAH模型中层与层之间某些参数具有一定的相关性,但是总体而言,层与层之间参数还是比较独立的,参数的相关性主要存在于层内；SAH模型产流的8个参数中有3个低敏感的参数,4个中等敏感的参数,1个高敏感的参数,这种参数敏感程度的组合使得模型具有较好的稳定性。
经过对SAH模型与双超模型和新安江模型在实际流域应用的对比,以及对SAH模型结构合理性和参数敏感性、相关性等方面的理论分析,初步判断SAH模型的结构符合半干湿地区的产流规律,模型建立所依据的原理和数学方法与系统建模的要求相一致。
在本文最后,以SAH模型为研究对象,对水文预报输入资料及时间尺度进行了分析,得到了不同时间尺度对模型预报结果的影响,这对洪水预报、特别是城市短历时暴雨洪水中暴雨资料的整理、截取提供了有价值的参考。
During the process of developing the hydrologic watershed model, much work has been done for humid regions and the computation methodology for humid areas was relatively mature, but the work for semi-arid and semi-humid regions were rare and poor. Either in the domestic or on abroad, the hydrologic watershed model still has problems to be solved before it mat be put inyo use in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Therefore, study on the model development for semi-arid and semi-humid regions is of significance both to hydrologic theory and to practical application.
Starting from analysis of defects of the existing hydrologic models, focusing on the disadvantages of the models for semi-arid and semi-humid regions, the structure, parameters and functionc of the ShuangChao model were expounded by means of comparative analysis and group comparison in this dissertation. At the same time, the XinAnJiang Model, which is famous in China, was introduced and its success was expounded with the theory of systemic modelization.
Based on the comprehensive analysis on XinAnJiang and ShuangChao model, and the understanding of the hydrologic characteristics in semi-arid and semi-humid regions, a new model for the semi-arid and semi-humid regions was developed according to the theory of systemic modelization, which will be abbreviated to SAH in the diassertation. Then, the structure and characteristics of the SAH model were elaborated in detail.
In order to validate the SAH model, three hydrologic models (SAH Model, XinAnJiang Model and ShuangChao Model) were applicated to the upper reaches of Wenyu River, ShanXi Province. It was shown by simulation of 14 rain-runoff events that the proposed SAH model was better than the other two, because of its suitable structure and pertinent features. And it was shown by simulation results that there was no obvious systemic deviation, and that the setting of model parameters was measured up to the systemic modelization.
The setting and calibration of model parameters were of significant to the hydrologic watershed model, so that the relativity and sensitivity analysis were conducted. It was shown by the analysis that a little relativity was existed but almost independent between layer and layer of the SAH model parameters. The parameter's relativity was appeared within the layer of the SAH model. The 8 parameters of SAH model,3 were lower sensitive parameters,4 were medium ones, and only 1 was high sensitive one. These parameters composition made the model more stable.
Through the comparative studies of results of SAH and XinAnJiang Model applicated to Wenyu watershed, and model structure analysis and relativity and sensitivity analysis of parameters, a primary conclusion was obtained that the SAH model structuere was fit for runoff formulation law of semi-arid and semi-humid regions, the developing process was in accordance with modelization theory and mathematical approach.
The time scale analysis was conducted, in which the effects of input rainfall data with different time step on the runoff forecasting were discuss. It might provide some usefull information for flood forecasting with rainfall data with different time step, especially for urban rush flood caused by heavy storm with short duration.
本文首先较全面地分析了各类水文模型特点及不足,重点分析了现有半干湿地区水文模型的特点和不足,特别是对半干湿地区双超产流模型,利用对比和分类等方法对双超模型的结构、参数和存在的问题等方面做了全面细致的剖析。同时利用系统建模的理论对新安江模型在湿润地区成功应用的原因做了全面的剖析。
在对新安江模型和双超模型综合客观的全面分析及对半干湿地区水文特性再认识之后,以系统建模的理论与实践经验,建立了一个针对半干湿地区的新的水文模型—SAH模型(semi-arid and semi-humid的缩写)。然后详细地介绍了SAH模型的结构部件以及模型的特点。
为了检验SAH模型的有效性,将SAH模型、双超模型和新安江模型同时应用于山西文峪河上游流域。通过14个场次降雨径流资料的模拟计算,可以看出：SAH模型相对于其他两个模型具有其独到的优点,其模型结构合理,不存在明显的系统偏差,模型的参数设置也符合系统建模的要求,而且模型模拟效果良好。
水文模型参数设置的合理性对模型来说是至关重要的。在本文的最后一章中,利用实际流域模拟所得参数结果对参数间的相关性和各个参数的敏感性做了分析,通过分析得出这样的结论：SAH模型中层与层之间某些参数具有一定的相关性,但是总体而言,层与层之间参数还是比较独立的,参数的相关性主要存在于层内；SAH模型产流的8个参数中有3个低敏感的参数,4个中等敏感的参数,1个高敏感的参数,这种参数敏感程度的组合使得模型具有较好的稳定性。
经过对SAH模型与双超模型和新安江模型在实际流域应用的对比,以及对SAH模型结构合理性和参数敏感性、相关性等方面的理论分析,初步判断SAH模型的结构符合半干湿地区的产流规律,模型建立所依据的原理和数学方法与系统建模的要求相一致。
在本文最后,以SAH模型为研究对象,对水文预报输入资料及时间尺度进行了分析,得到了不同时间尺度对模型预报结果的影响,这对洪水预报、特别是城市短历时暴雨洪水中暴雨资料的整理、截取提供了有价值的参考。
During the process of developing the hydrologic watershed model, much work has been done for humid regions and the computation methodology for humid areas was relatively mature, but the work for semi-arid and semi-humid regions were rare and poor. Either in the domestic or on abroad, the hydrologic watershed model still has problems to be solved before it mat be put inyo use in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Therefore, study on the model development for semi-arid and semi-humid regions is of significance both to hydrologic theory and to practical application.
Starting from analysis of defects of the existing hydrologic models, focusing on the disadvantages of the models for semi-arid and semi-humid regions, the structure, parameters and functionc of the ShuangChao model were expounded by means of comparative analysis and group comparison in this dissertation. At the same time, the XinAnJiang Model, which is famous in China, was introduced and its success was expounded with the theory of systemic modelization.
Based on the comprehensive analysis on XinAnJiang and ShuangChao model, and the understanding of the hydrologic characteristics in semi-arid and semi-humid regions, a new model for the semi-arid and semi-humid regions was developed according to the theory of systemic modelization, which will be abbreviated to SAH in the diassertation. Then, the structure and characteristics of the SAH model were elaborated in detail.
In order to validate the SAH model, three hydrologic models (SAH Model, XinAnJiang Model and ShuangChao Model) were applicated to the upper reaches of Wenyu River, ShanXi Province. It was shown by simulation of 14 rain-runoff events that the proposed SAH model was better than the other two, because of its suitable structure and pertinent features. And it was shown by simulation results that there was no obvious systemic deviation, and that the setting of model parameters was measured up to the systemic modelization.
The setting and calibration of model parameters were of significant to the hydrologic watershed model, so that the relativity and sensitivity analysis were conducted. It was shown by the analysis that a little relativity was existed but almost independent between layer and layer of the SAH model parameters. The parameter's relativity was appeared within the layer of the SAH model. The 8 parameters of SAH model,3 were lower sensitive parameters,4 were medium ones, and only 1 was high sensitive one. These parameters composition made the model more stable.
Through the comparative studies of results of SAH and XinAnJiang Model applicated to Wenyu watershed, and model structure analysis and relativity and sensitivity analysis of parameters, a primary conclusion was obtained that the SAH model structuere was fit for runoff formulation law of semi-arid and semi-humid regions, the developing process was in accordance with modelization theory and mathematical approach.
The time scale analysis was conducted, in which the effects of input rainfall data with different time step on the runoff forecasting were discuss. It might provide some usefull information for flood forecasting with rainfall data with different time step, especially for urban rush flood caused by heavy storm with short duration.
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