中国煤炭产能综合评价与调控政策研究
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摘要
随着我国煤炭工业固定资产投资的高位运行，加之当前国内煤炭需求不足以及国际煤炭进口冲击，我国煤炭产能过剩形势更趋明显。因此，科学分析煤炭产能过剩的成因机理，合理构建一套具有鉴定、导向诊断、监督与调节功能的煤炭产能评估体系，研究煤炭产能调控机制，在宏观上既有助于建立长期稳定的煤炭供需关系，保障能源安全和煤炭产业健康稳定发展，微观上又可以引导煤炭生产和消费者规避市场风险，防止煤炭市场的大幅波动。本文贡献主要体现在以下几个方面：
在现状分析部分，本文重点研究了煤炭产能发展现状，并借鉴期货市场价格发现的思想分析了煤炭市场供需变化与国际能源市场冲击对国内煤炭价格波动的影响，研究认为：①我国煤炭资源总量丰富而区域分布不平衡，煤炭分布与水资源、环境承载力以及经济发展存在区域上的错位；②煤炭固定资产投资高位运行，煤炭资源整合后产能进入释放期，未来产能过剩趋势明显；③我国煤炭产能利用效率存在结构性差异，应重点提升地方煤矿产能利用率，改善省营煤矿超负荷生产状况；④当前煤价下滑归因于内需不足与国际能源价格冲击，煤炭产量对煤炭价格的引导能力较弱，这在一定程度上也解释了当前国内煤企采取―以量补价‖的方式扩大生产的乱象。
在煤炭产能缺口测度及其成因机理分析部分，本文首先基于潜在产出理论建立了煤炭产能缺口的测度模型，旨在从前馈控制的角度反映未来煤炭产能的变化；其次，基于VAR模型研究了企业逐利行为、地方发展冲动与市场需求因素对煤炭产能扩张的影响，明确了三者的影响方向和程度，为产能调控政策的制定奠定了研究基础。研究认为：①企业逐利动机是产能过剩的―始作俑者‖，体现为总资产贡献率对煤炭产能的负向影响，现阶段煤炭企业―以量补价‖的生产方式是其体现，产能调控依靠行业自律的做法在长期内是无效的；②地方政府投资行为对煤炭产能波动影响最为显著，地方政府的发展冲动很大程度上助长了煤炭产能投资―潮涌现象‖，表现出明显的―企业—地方政府‖联盟。
在煤炭产能综合指数评价研究中，本文首先基于PSR模型建立了煤炭产能综合评价体系，进而将变权方法与TOPSIS方法引入到煤炭产能综合指数评价研究中，构建了煤炭产能―理想度‖指数，客观反映了我国煤炭产能运行态势的相对优劣，避免了主观评价导致的偏差。研究发现：①考察期内我国煤炭产能―理想度‖指数呈阶段性变化，逐渐由―较不科学‖向―临界科学‖状态转变；②我国煤炭产能面临的压力主要来源于煤炭储量、市场需求、煤炭运输以及生态环境约束四个方面，其中煤炭储量因素的影响最为显著，而生态环境约束中水资源约束对煤炭产能的压力明显大于碳排放的影响；③考察期内我国煤炭产能运行状态由―不科学‖逐步向―临界科学‖状态过渡，煤炭产能的运行状态主要受生态环境、煤炭生产和经济效益的驱动，而生产安全和技术因素的贡献相对较小；④煤炭产能―响应指数‖总体上由―不科学‖向―较科学‖状态转变，生态环境治理与煤炭工业投资对煤炭产能的影响最大，而市场供需调节的影响相对较小，其根源在于市场调节机制的阶段性与滞后性。
在煤炭产能情景预测及调控路径的研究中，本文基于系统动力学与情景分析方法研究了我国煤炭产能的演变趋势和路径。研究发现：①未来我国煤炭需求存有情景差异，政策情景下2020年煤炭需求量将达38.52亿吨，较之于基准情景减少10.50亿吨，能源效率与能源结构是导致这一差异的主要因素；②煤炭产能过剩形势十分明显，2020年政策情景下我国煤炭产能将达到46.35亿吨，产能调控应从源头上控制煤炭工业的过度投资，政府应引导煤炭企业理性投资，提高准入门槛；③煤炭生产导致的污染排放呈先增后降的变化趋势，倒―U‖型环境库茨涅茨曲线效应较为明显，我国煤炭工业未来一段时间内仍将处于先污染后治理的发展阶段；④调控情景下我国煤炭产能在2020年达到44.20亿吨，较之基准情景降低7.23亿吨，考察期内较之基准情景累计减少煤炭产能32.24亿吨。其中，落后产能淘汰、煤炭进口限额、煤炭价格管制以及煤炭投资约束的产能减控潜力较大；⑤未来实现产能调控的关键路径主要有：煤炭需求侧管理、煤炭进口管制、煤炭投资约束、强化资源整合与完善市场机制建设。
最后，从企业层面、产业层面与宏观层面出发，根据煤炭产能的形成机理及其趋势评价的结果，构建了煤炭产能调控的交互式政策调控体系，主要包括：总量控制机制、资源整合机制、落后产能退出机制、煤炭投资约束机制、产能建设标准化体制以及产能治理的政府引导机制等。
With the high level of investment in fixed assets in China's coal industry, therelative surplus trend of China's coal production capacity is more severe. Therefore,scientifically analyzing the cause of the coal overcapacity, reasonably establishing aset of description, analysis and evaluation functions coal production capacityevaluation system, studying coal production regulation mechanism, it is bothcontributing to the establishment of long-term stable relationship between supply anddemand of coal, helping the health of coal industry development by one hand ofChina‘s macroeconomic, and enable to guide the coal producing and avoid the marketrisks, and to prevent sharp fluctuation in coal market. The contributions of this paperare mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Firstly, based on the aspect of current situation analysis, this paper focuses on thedevelopment status of coal production capacity, from the point of view of fluctuationsin coal prices, this paper effects the trend of coal market development by learningfrom the coal future market price ideology. The study suggest that: China's total coalresources are rich but unbalanced regional distribution; the fix investment in coalindustry are running at high level, the coal overcapacity is releasing after theintegration of coal resource, the trend is apparent in future; the current decline in coalprices was mainly due to insufficient domestic demand and international energy pricefluctuations, the capacity has the less influence on coal price, to some extent, thisexplains that current domestic enterprises take the way of―economics of scale‖.
Secondly, the paper analyzes the excess capacity driving factors and formationmechanism, this research proves that,(1) the coal enterprise is driven by profit-seeking as to its expanding production to make up for the decreased price at present,thus capacity control relying on industry self-discipline approach is invalid in the longterm;(2) local government investment coal production capacity fluctuatedsignificantly, and the development of local government impulse is largely contributedto the coal production capacity to invest―Wave Phenomenon‖, and it Showedsignificant―enterprises-local government‖Union..
Thirdly, this paper establishes the coal capacity comprehensive evaluationsystem by the PSR concept model, and introduces the variable weight method and theTOPSIS method to study the coal production capacity index assessment. Researchindicates that:(1) the "ideal" index of the coal production capacity has a periodicallychange gradually from the "less science" state to a state of "critical science";(2) thepressure faced by coal production capacity mainly comes from coal reserves, demand,transportation and environment constraints;(3) the running state of the coalproduction capacity that changes from the―unscientific‖state to the―critical science‖state, is mainly affected by the ecological environment, coal production and economic benefit, besides the coal mines safety and the technical factors;(4) the "response"index of coal production capacity, on the whole translating from the "unscientific"state to a "less science" state, is impacted mostly by ecological environmentalgovernance and coal capacity investment and the adjustment influence of marketsupply and demand is relatively small.
Fourthly, the system dynamics method is used to build the coal productioncapacity regulation model, then adopts the method of scenario analysis to make aforecast about the trend of China‘s coal production capacity development, and sets outa coal capacity regulation policy system according to the sensitivity analysis to judgethe key factors. Research finds that:(1) the coal demand in China has a dramaticchange in different scenarios, it can be total3.852billion tons in TRS, while energyefficiency and energy structure are the main factors influencing the coal demand;(2)in2020China's coal production capacity will reach4.635billion tons and output4.334billion tons, which shows that the situation of coal supply exceeds demand isvery clear, the key of production capacity regulation is to control the excessive coalindustry investment;(3) the quantity of pollution emission caused by coal productionfollows the change trend of first increased and then drop, and the effect of inverted"U" environment Kuznets curve is relatively obvious, which shows that China's coalindustry will remain the cycle of regulation after pollution during a period of time inthe future;(4) In the Regulation Scenario, China‘s coal production capacity will reach4.42billion tons, it is a decrease of723million tons compared to the baseline scenario,its cumulative reduction in coal production capacity of3.224billion tons during2011~2020;(5) in order to regulate the coal production capacity in the future, somecritical measures should be taken by the way of coal demand side management,control of imports of coal, coal investment constraints, strengthen the integration ofresources and improve the construction of market mechanism, and so on.
Finally, the interactive coal production capacity regulation policies areconstructed from the enterprise level, industry level and macro level according to theformation mechanism, which mainly includes total amount control mechanism, theresources conformity mechanism, backward production capacity control mechanism,investment constraint mechanism, the standard system of coal production capacity,leading mechanism by government and etc.
在现状分析部分，本文重点研究了煤炭产能发展现状，并借鉴期货市场价格发现的思想分析了煤炭市场供需变化与国际能源市场冲击对国内煤炭价格波动的影响，研究认为：①我国煤炭资源总量丰富而区域分布不平衡，煤炭分布与水资源、环境承载力以及经济发展存在区域上的错位；②煤炭固定资产投资高位运行，煤炭资源整合后产能进入释放期，未来产能过剩趋势明显；③我国煤炭产能利用效率存在结构性差异，应重点提升地方煤矿产能利用率，改善省营煤矿超负荷生产状况；④当前煤价下滑归因于内需不足与国际能源价格冲击，煤炭产量对煤炭价格的引导能力较弱，这在一定程度上也解释了当前国内煤企采取―以量补价‖的方式扩大生产的乱象。
在煤炭产能缺口测度及其成因机理分析部分，本文首先基于潜在产出理论建立了煤炭产能缺口的测度模型，旨在从前馈控制的角度反映未来煤炭产能的变化；其次，基于VAR模型研究了企业逐利行为、地方发展冲动与市场需求因素对煤炭产能扩张的影响，明确了三者的影响方向和程度，为产能调控政策的制定奠定了研究基础。研究认为：①企业逐利动机是产能过剩的―始作俑者‖，体现为总资产贡献率对煤炭产能的负向影响，现阶段煤炭企业―以量补价‖的生产方式是其体现，产能调控依靠行业自律的做法在长期内是无效的；②地方政府投资行为对煤炭产能波动影响最为显著，地方政府的发展冲动很大程度上助长了煤炭产能投资―潮涌现象‖，表现出明显的―企业—地方政府‖联盟。
在煤炭产能综合指数评价研究中，本文首先基于PSR模型建立了煤炭产能综合评价体系，进而将变权方法与TOPSIS方法引入到煤炭产能综合指数评价研究中，构建了煤炭产能―理想度‖指数，客观反映了我国煤炭产能运行态势的相对优劣，避免了主观评价导致的偏差。研究发现：①考察期内我国煤炭产能―理想度‖指数呈阶段性变化，逐渐由―较不科学‖向―临界科学‖状态转变；②我国煤炭产能面临的压力主要来源于煤炭储量、市场需求、煤炭运输以及生态环境约束四个方面，其中煤炭储量因素的影响最为显著，而生态环境约束中水资源约束对煤炭产能的压力明显大于碳排放的影响；③考察期内我国煤炭产能运行状态由―不科学‖逐步向―临界科学‖状态过渡，煤炭产能的运行状态主要受生态环境、煤炭生产和经济效益的驱动，而生产安全和技术因素的贡献相对较小；④煤炭产能―响应指数‖总体上由―不科学‖向―较科学‖状态转变，生态环境治理与煤炭工业投资对煤炭产能的影响最大，而市场供需调节的影响相对较小，其根源在于市场调节机制的阶段性与滞后性。
在煤炭产能情景预测及调控路径的研究中，本文基于系统动力学与情景分析方法研究了我国煤炭产能的演变趋势和路径。研究发现：①未来我国煤炭需求存有情景差异，政策情景下2020年煤炭需求量将达38.52亿吨，较之于基准情景减少10.50亿吨，能源效率与能源结构是导致这一差异的主要因素；②煤炭产能过剩形势十分明显，2020年政策情景下我国煤炭产能将达到46.35亿吨，产能调控应从源头上控制煤炭工业的过度投资，政府应引导煤炭企业理性投资，提高准入门槛；③煤炭生产导致的污染排放呈先增后降的变化趋势，倒―U‖型环境库茨涅茨曲线效应较为明显，我国煤炭工业未来一段时间内仍将处于先污染后治理的发展阶段；④调控情景下我国煤炭产能在2020年达到44.20亿吨，较之基准情景降低7.23亿吨，考察期内较之基准情景累计减少煤炭产能32.24亿吨。其中，落后产能淘汰、煤炭进口限额、煤炭价格管制以及煤炭投资约束的产能减控潜力较大；⑤未来实现产能调控的关键路径主要有：煤炭需求侧管理、煤炭进口管制、煤炭投资约束、强化资源整合与完善市场机制建设。
最后，从企业层面、产业层面与宏观层面出发，根据煤炭产能的形成机理及其趋势评价的结果，构建了煤炭产能调控的交互式政策调控体系，主要包括：总量控制机制、资源整合机制、落后产能退出机制、煤炭投资约束机制、产能建设标准化体制以及产能治理的政府引导机制等。
With the high level of investment in fixed assets in China's coal industry, therelative surplus trend of China's coal production capacity is more severe. Therefore,scientifically analyzing the cause of the coal overcapacity, reasonably establishing aset of description, analysis and evaluation functions coal production capacityevaluation system, studying coal production regulation mechanism, it is bothcontributing to the establishment of long-term stable relationship between supply anddemand of coal, helping the health of coal industry development by one hand ofChina‘s macroeconomic, and enable to guide the coal producing and avoid the marketrisks, and to prevent sharp fluctuation in coal market. The contributions of this paperare mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Firstly, based on the aspect of current situation analysis, this paper focuses on thedevelopment status of coal production capacity, from the point of view of fluctuationsin coal prices, this paper effects the trend of coal market development by learningfrom the coal future market price ideology. The study suggest that: China's total coalresources are rich but unbalanced regional distribution; the fix investment in coalindustry are running at high level, the coal overcapacity is releasing after theintegration of coal resource, the trend is apparent in future; the current decline in coalprices was mainly due to insufficient domestic demand and international energy pricefluctuations, the capacity has the less influence on coal price, to some extent, thisexplains that current domestic enterprises take the way of―economics of scale‖.
Secondly, the paper analyzes the excess capacity driving factors and formationmechanism, this research proves that,(1) the coal enterprise is driven by profit-seeking as to its expanding production to make up for the decreased price at present,thus capacity control relying on industry self-discipline approach is invalid in the longterm;(2) local government investment coal production capacity fluctuatedsignificantly, and the development of local government impulse is largely contributedto the coal production capacity to invest―Wave Phenomenon‖, and it Showedsignificant―enterprises-local government‖Union..
Thirdly, this paper establishes the coal capacity comprehensive evaluationsystem by the PSR concept model, and introduces the variable weight method and theTOPSIS method to study the coal production capacity index assessment. Researchindicates that:(1) the "ideal" index of the coal production capacity has a periodicallychange gradually from the "less science" state to a state of "critical science";(2) thepressure faced by coal production capacity mainly comes from coal reserves, demand,transportation and environment constraints;(3) the running state of the coalproduction capacity that changes from the―unscientific‖state to the―critical science‖state, is mainly affected by the ecological environment, coal production and economic benefit, besides the coal mines safety and the technical factors;(4) the "response"index of coal production capacity, on the whole translating from the "unscientific"state to a "less science" state, is impacted mostly by ecological environmentalgovernance and coal capacity investment and the adjustment influence of marketsupply and demand is relatively small.
Fourthly, the system dynamics method is used to build the coal productioncapacity regulation model, then adopts the method of scenario analysis to make aforecast about the trend of China‘s coal production capacity development, and sets outa coal capacity regulation policy system according to the sensitivity analysis to judgethe key factors. Research finds that:(1) the coal demand in China has a dramaticchange in different scenarios, it can be total3.852billion tons in TRS, while energyefficiency and energy structure are the main factors influencing the coal demand;(2)in2020China's coal production capacity will reach4.635billion tons and output4.334billion tons, which shows that the situation of coal supply exceeds demand isvery clear, the key of production capacity regulation is to control the excessive coalindustry investment;(3) the quantity of pollution emission caused by coal productionfollows the change trend of first increased and then drop, and the effect of inverted"U" environment Kuznets curve is relatively obvious, which shows that China's coalindustry will remain the cycle of regulation after pollution during a period of time inthe future;(4) In the Regulation Scenario, China‘s coal production capacity will reach4.42billion tons, it is a decrease of723million tons compared to the baseline scenario,its cumulative reduction in coal production capacity of3.224billion tons during2011~2020;(5) in order to regulate the coal production capacity in the future, somecritical measures should be taken by the way of coal demand side management,control of imports of coal, coal investment constraints, strengthen the integration ofresources and improve the construction of market mechanism, and so on.
Finally, the interactive coal production capacity regulation policies areconstructed from the enterprise level, industry level and macro level according to theformation mechanism, which mainly includes total amount control mechanism, theresources conformity mechanism, backward production capacity control mechanism,investment constraint mechanism, the standard system of coal production capacity,leading mechanism by government and etc.
引文
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