食品连锁经营中的有效客户反应研究
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摘要
在我国,民以食为天,食品是保证人民群众生存的基本必需品。相对于生产,食品的流通比较滞后。目前,食品超市化连锁经营作为一种新的零售形式,已经成为国内外商业资本追逐的热点并将掀起新一轮的竞争高潮。对于食品连锁企业(本研究数据来源于上海某食品连锁企业),如何利用ECR(有效客户反应)高效地发掘客户需求以满足市场的需要,高效地进行店铺管理以提高企业利润,高效地新产品引进以应对变化的市场,高效的连锁扩展和ECR实施提高精细化规模经营,进而提高企业供应链的反应速度和效率,全面提升企业经营管理能力,成为食品连锁经营中日益重要的问题。
1、基于数据挖掘技术,深刻把握客户需求。客户的需求是拉式供应链的源头,是推广ECR管理的起点,如何从销售数据中提取客户需求成为当前研究的一个重要问题。本研究在数据挖掘方法的基础上,提出了采用多方法数据挖掘技术进行商品销售分析,分别建立了CD模型、CA模型等多方法数据挖掘品类管理模型。CD模型首先通过聚类分析来获取商品分类,并通过决策树对聚类后的商品进行了分析,对商品的聚类知识进行了显性表征；CA模型首先通过聚类方法对商品进行分类,然后对某一类限定性商品通过关联规则分析了类别之间的销售模式。上述模型通过多种数据挖掘方法融合,利用了不同挖掘方法的优点,更加深入的把握了客户需求和商品销售行为。
2、连锁经营中,店铺是整个连锁企业的终端,尽管针对某个产品的促销是可以在所有的店铺开展,但是每个店铺由于地理位置不同,消费群体不同,其销售的产品群也不同,所以对店铺的分类研究,把握店铺的销售行为将对高效促销管理起到重要的作用。论文的第三章重点研究了店铺销售行为,提出了基于店铺销售行为的分类方法FCBA,该方法基于关联规则技术,通过两两比较店铺的关联规则巧妙的建立相似矩阵,进而采用模糊聚类进行了店铺分类。FCBA方法使得店铺分类方法得到了扩展,由此展开了店铺销售行为学的研究。
3、新产品引进是连锁超市重要的一个环节,高效的新品引进,可以降低新品引进的成本,提高产品引进的成功率,满足日益变化的消费者需求。本文基于案例推理的方法建立了新品引进模型,该模型能从历史的角度对新品引进进行预测,尽量选择合适的产品,合适的门店和合适的引进方法,提高新品引进成功率,提高ECR的管理效率。基于案例推理的新产品引进模型研究中,着重探索了采用粗糙集的分析方法进行了案例的匹配,建立了基于案例推理的新品引进模型EPI-CBR,论证了粗糙集方法优于ID3方法更适用于案例匹配,最后采用遗传算法改进和提升了粗糙集方法的匹配效率,该模型的研究具有实际应用性。
4、连锁企业的店铺组织方式是连锁企业扩张和管理的基础,本文基于分形理论对店铺的相似性原理进行了剖析,测算了连锁企业的分形维,证明了连锁企业的分形特征；在此基础上建立了连锁扩张的仿真模型,分析了连锁经营模式的健壮性和抗风险性,发现了连锁企业扩张中瓶颈阶段；最后提出了分形ECR的概念并对分形ECR的运作进行了构建。基于分形的连锁企业研究从原理上对连锁企业的门店扩张和管理起到了指导作用,基于分形ECR的管理将有利于连锁企业的组织和经营,有利于连锁企业的核心竞争力提升。
本研究的创新点表现在以下三个方面：
(1)基于数据挖掘多方法融合的品类管理模型。通过融合快速聚类、粗糙集、关联规则和模糊聚类等方法各自的优点,建立了品类管理模型CA模型、CD模型和FCBA模型,可以对产品销售、客户特征、客户消费趋势和店铺分类进行高效管理,形成了对传统的品类管理方法进行有效的补充。
(2)基于案例推理CBR的新产品引进模型的建立。CBR是通过案例(范例)的推理来获取有效知识从而对新问题进行求解,利用CBR来研究新产品引进并建立了新品引进模型EPI-CBR。模型中采用了粗糙集方法进行案例匹配,通过ID3和粗糙集方法的对比论证了粗糙集方法更适用于案例检索,并采用遗传算法对粗糙集方法的效率进行了优化。
(3)引入分形理论,创造性的提出了食品连锁企业的分形维计算方法,从而论证了连锁企业具有分形特征。由于连锁企业具有分形特征的,建立了递推公式对连锁经营模式进行仿真研究,发现了连锁扩张的的初期瓶颈,总结出连锁经营模式的健壮性和抗风险性的原因,并构建了食品连锁企业的分形ECR的组成和运作模式。
综合上述,本文选择了食品连锁企业为目标,在调查了上海某食品连锁企业现状以后,探索了ECR管理中急需解决的问题,采用多方法数据挖掘技术、案例推理、粗糙集理论、分形理论、仿真建模等理论和技术对客户需求、店铺管理、新品引进、连锁分形、分形ECR等问题进行了研究,研究结果将会对企业加强自身管理,推广ECR战略起到重要的作用。
In China, the food is the first important thing, and is the necessarity of living of people. Comparing the production, selling is behind of it. Now, food supermarket chain store as a new retailing type has became a core problem of capital pursuing and will face the new competitions. As for food chain store (the research data from Shanghai Laiyifen Co, Ltd), how to apply the ECR(Efficient Customer Response) to find the needs of customer efficiently to satisfied the market, how to improve the ability of store management to improve the profits of it, how to introduce the new products efficiently to satisfy the diversity of market, how to add the new store efficiently and apply the ECR to improve the operation, fatherly to improve the response speed and efficiency of supply chain to enhance the management ability, now become the important problem in the running of food chain store.
1. Grasp the needs of consumer by the data mining technology. The needs of consumer is the origin of pull supply chain, is the beginning of ECR management. How to abstract the customer requirement from sales data is an important problem. In this study the multi-method data mining model is built to get the behavior of store, such as CD model, which classifying the merchandise by clustering, and applying the decision tree to show knowledge of sales, and such as CA model, which doing the research about definite merchandise by association rules. The research of Multi-method Data mining model is helpful for grasp the needs of consumer.
2. In the chain operations, the store as the terminal of entire chain enterprise, even though for a product promotion can be carried out in all the shops, but the shop due to different geographic location, and different consumer groups, so the study of classification of the shop, grasp the selling behavior of store will play an important role in the efficient promotion management. This paper studies sales practices, store classification method FCBA has been proposed which is based on association rules and fuzzy cluster, so the store classification method has been expanded and thus the store selling behavior theory has been built up.
3. The introduction of new products is an important aspect of supermarket chains. Efficient new product introduction can reduce costs and improve the success rate of product introductions, in this paper to apply the case-based reasoning theory from a historical perspective to predict the new product introduction, try to choose the right product, the right stores and the appropriate promotion to enhance the management efficiency of ECR. Case-based reasoning which is used in the new product introduction focuses on the analysis of case match by rough set methods, by comparing the rough sets and ID3 to show rough sets is better used in the knowledge guidance system, for improve the efficiency of rough sets'reduct, the genetic algorithm is used to design the new reduct algorithm.
4. Chain stores organization is the foundation of the expansion and management of the chain enterprise, this paper analyzed similarity of stores based on fractal theory, measured the fractal dimension of chain store, proved the fractal characteristics of chain stores; simulation to establish a chain of expansion model, analyzed the business model of the robustness and anti-risk. So the fractal ECR was proposed and built. The research of the chain stores based on fractal theory has played a guiding role in the management of chain stores, and fractal ECR will be conducive to the organization and operation of chain store and help enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises.
There are there innovations of the research in the following:
(1) Category management model based on multi-method data mining.Through the integration of fast clustering, rough sets, association rules and fuzzy clustering, the category management model such as CA model, CD model and the FCBA model were established, can manage the sales, customer characteristics, customer consuming trends and shop classfication efficiently, which has formed the effective supplement to the traditional methods of category management.
(2) New product introduction model by Case-Based Reasoning. CBR solve new problems by the case reasoning to obtain effective knowledge, by which to study the new product introduction and to establish the new product introduction model EPI-CBR. Model used rough sets to case matching, and rough sets method is more suitable for case retrieval by Comparative study of ID3 and rough sets, furthermore, the genetic algorithm was used to improve the efficiency of rough sets.
(3) Appling the fractal theory to put forward the calculation of the food chain fractal dimension, which demonstrates the food chain having fractal characteristics. As the food chain has fractal characteristics, the food chain simulation model was establishment by recurrence formulas, which found the bottlenecks in early expansion and concluded the food chain business model robust and anti-risk, and build composition and operation of the fractal ECR of food chain.
Finally, all the content is summarized, for exploring the problem of ECR of food chain store, multi method of data mining, CBR and fractal theory are used to study the needs of consumer, new product introduction, store management, fractal chain store and so on, the study will help the enterprise to strength the management of enterprise and further to develop the strategy of ECR.
1、基于数据挖掘技术,深刻把握客户需求。客户的需求是拉式供应链的源头,是推广ECR管理的起点,如何从销售数据中提取客户需求成为当前研究的一个重要问题。本研究在数据挖掘方法的基础上,提出了采用多方法数据挖掘技术进行商品销售分析,分别建立了CD模型、CA模型等多方法数据挖掘品类管理模型。CD模型首先通过聚类分析来获取商品分类,并通过决策树对聚类后的商品进行了分析,对商品的聚类知识进行了显性表征；CA模型首先通过聚类方法对商品进行分类,然后对某一类限定性商品通过关联规则分析了类别之间的销售模式。上述模型通过多种数据挖掘方法融合,利用了不同挖掘方法的优点,更加深入的把握了客户需求和商品销售行为。
2、连锁经营中,店铺是整个连锁企业的终端,尽管针对某个产品的促销是可以在所有的店铺开展,但是每个店铺由于地理位置不同,消费群体不同,其销售的产品群也不同,所以对店铺的分类研究,把握店铺的销售行为将对高效促销管理起到重要的作用。论文的第三章重点研究了店铺销售行为,提出了基于店铺销售行为的分类方法FCBA,该方法基于关联规则技术,通过两两比较店铺的关联规则巧妙的建立相似矩阵,进而采用模糊聚类进行了店铺分类。FCBA方法使得店铺分类方法得到了扩展,由此展开了店铺销售行为学的研究。
3、新产品引进是连锁超市重要的一个环节,高效的新品引进,可以降低新品引进的成本,提高产品引进的成功率,满足日益变化的消费者需求。本文基于案例推理的方法建立了新品引进模型,该模型能从历史的角度对新品引进进行预测,尽量选择合适的产品,合适的门店和合适的引进方法,提高新品引进成功率,提高ECR的管理效率。基于案例推理的新产品引进模型研究中,着重探索了采用粗糙集的分析方法进行了案例的匹配,建立了基于案例推理的新品引进模型EPI-CBR,论证了粗糙集方法优于ID3方法更适用于案例匹配,最后采用遗传算法改进和提升了粗糙集方法的匹配效率,该模型的研究具有实际应用性。
4、连锁企业的店铺组织方式是连锁企业扩张和管理的基础,本文基于分形理论对店铺的相似性原理进行了剖析,测算了连锁企业的分形维,证明了连锁企业的分形特征；在此基础上建立了连锁扩张的仿真模型,分析了连锁经营模式的健壮性和抗风险性,发现了连锁企业扩张中瓶颈阶段；最后提出了分形ECR的概念并对分形ECR的运作进行了构建。基于分形的连锁企业研究从原理上对连锁企业的门店扩张和管理起到了指导作用,基于分形ECR的管理将有利于连锁企业的组织和经营,有利于连锁企业的核心竞争力提升。
本研究的创新点表现在以下三个方面：
(1)基于数据挖掘多方法融合的品类管理模型。通过融合快速聚类、粗糙集、关联规则和模糊聚类等方法各自的优点,建立了品类管理模型CA模型、CD模型和FCBA模型,可以对产品销售、客户特征、客户消费趋势和店铺分类进行高效管理,形成了对传统的品类管理方法进行有效的补充。
(2)基于案例推理CBR的新产品引进模型的建立。CBR是通过案例(范例)的推理来获取有效知识从而对新问题进行求解,利用CBR来研究新产品引进并建立了新品引进模型EPI-CBR。模型中采用了粗糙集方法进行案例匹配,通过ID3和粗糙集方法的对比论证了粗糙集方法更适用于案例检索,并采用遗传算法对粗糙集方法的效率进行了优化。
(3)引入分形理论,创造性的提出了食品连锁企业的分形维计算方法,从而论证了连锁企业具有分形特征。由于连锁企业具有分形特征的,建立了递推公式对连锁经营模式进行仿真研究,发现了连锁扩张的的初期瓶颈,总结出连锁经营模式的健壮性和抗风险性的原因,并构建了食品连锁企业的分形ECR的组成和运作模式。
综合上述,本文选择了食品连锁企业为目标,在调查了上海某食品连锁企业现状以后,探索了ECR管理中急需解决的问题,采用多方法数据挖掘技术、案例推理、粗糙集理论、分形理论、仿真建模等理论和技术对客户需求、店铺管理、新品引进、连锁分形、分形ECR等问题进行了研究,研究结果将会对企业加强自身管理,推广ECR战略起到重要的作用。
In China, the food is the first important thing, and is the necessarity of living of people. Comparing the production, selling is behind of it. Now, food supermarket chain store as a new retailing type has became a core problem of capital pursuing and will face the new competitions. As for food chain store (the research data from Shanghai Laiyifen Co, Ltd), how to apply the ECR(Efficient Customer Response) to find the needs of customer efficiently to satisfied the market, how to improve the ability of store management to improve the profits of it, how to introduce the new products efficiently to satisfy the diversity of market, how to add the new store efficiently and apply the ECR to improve the operation, fatherly to improve the response speed and efficiency of supply chain to enhance the management ability, now become the important problem in the running of food chain store.
1. Grasp the needs of consumer by the data mining technology. The needs of consumer is the origin of pull supply chain, is the beginning of ECR management. How to abstract the customer requirement from sales data is an important problem. In this study the multi-method data mining model is built to get the behavior of store, such as CD model, which classifying the merchandise by clustering, and applying the decision tree to show knowledge of sales, and such as CA model, which doing the research about definite merchandise by association rules. The research of Multi-method Data mining model is helpful for grasp the needs of consumer.
2. In the chain operations, the store as the terminal of entire chain enterprise, even though for a product promotion can be carried out in all the shops, but the shop due to different geographic location, and different consumer groups, so the study of classification of the shop, grasp the selling behavior of store will play an important role in the efficient promotion management. This paper studies sales practices, store classification method FCBA has been proposed which is based on association rules and fuzzy cluster, so the store classification method has been expanded and thus the store selling behavior theory has been built up.
3. The introduction of new products is an important aspect of supermarket chains. Efficient new product introduction can reduce costs and improve the success rate of product introductions, in this paper to apply the case-based reasoning theory from a historical perspective to predict the new product introduction, try to choose the right product, the right stores and the appropriate promotion to enhance the management efficiency of ECR. Case-based reasoning which is used in the new product introduction focuses on the analysis of case match by rough set methods, by comparing the rough sets and ID3 to show rough sets is better used in the knowledge guidance system, for improve the efficiency of rough sets'reduct, the genetic algorithm is used to design the new reduct algorithm.
4. Chain stores organization is the foundation of the expansion and management of the chain enterprise, this paper analyzed similarity of stores based on fractal theory, measured the fractal dimension of chain store, proved the fractal characteristics of chain stores; simulation to establish a chain of expansion model, analyzed the business model of the robustness and anti-risk. So the fractal ECR was proposed and built. The research of the chain stores based on fractal theory has played a guiding role in the management of chain stores, and fractal ECR will be conducive to the organization and operation of chain store and help enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises.
There are there innovations of the research in the following:
(1) Category management model based on multi-method data mining.Through the integration of fast clustering, rough sets, association rules and fuzzy clustering, the category management model such as CA model, CD model and the FCBA model were established, can manage the sales, customer characteristics, customer consuming trends and shop classfication efficiently, which has formed the effective supplement to the traditional methods of category management.
(2) New product introduction model by Case-Based Reasoning. CBR solve new problems by the case reasoning to obtain effective knowledge, by which to study the new product introduction and to establish the new product introduction model EPI-CBR. Model used rough sets to case matching, and rough sets method is more suitable for case retrieval by Comparative study of ID3 and rough sets, furthermore, the genetic algorithm was used to improve the efficiency of rough sets.
(3) Appling the fractal theory to put forward the calculation of the food chain fractal dimension, which demonstrates the food chain having fractal characteristics. As the food chain has fractal characteristics, the food chain simulation model was establishment by recurrence formulas, which found the bottlenecks in early expansion and concluded the food chain business model robust and anti-risk, and build composition and operation of the fractal ECR of food chain.
Finally, all the content is summarized, for exploring the problem of ECR of food chain store, multi method of data mining, CBR and fractal theory are used to study the needs of consumer, new product introduction, store management, fractal chain store and so on, the study will help the enterprise to strength the management of enterprise and further to develop the strategy of ECR.
引文
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