飞行程序运行评估的理论方法及仿真应用研究
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摘要
飞行程序是以保障终端区内的交通安全与提高运行效率为目标，对进离场航线及其网络所进行的科学规划和合理设计工作。飞行程序是重要的空域资源，是空域规划、空中交通运行和机场建设的基本依据。同时，基于程序的运行也是未来航空运输系统的重要技术发展趋势。飞行程序运行评估是对飞行程序设计方案和运行效果进行审核、评价与认证的工作，是保证飞行程序科学性、可行性的必要环节。但是，目前尚缺乏完整、有效的飞行程序运行评估的理论模型与技术方法。
本论文深入地剖析了飞行程序运行评估问题的概念和内涵，总结了有关方面的最新研究成果，创新性地提出了由安全风险、经济效率、管制适用性和环境影响4个方面组成的飞行程序运行评估理论体系，构建了结合飞行动力学和飞行运动学的动态航迹运行模型，并以此为基础研发了功能较完备的飞行程序运行仿真与评估平台。
首先，从多侧面、多阶段和多层次对飞行程序运行安全风险展开系统地研究。安全风险主要包括飞行过程中的近地风险和空中交通冲突风险两个侧面。其中，近地风险又包括两个阶段，第一阶段针对离场飞行程序以及进进飞行程序的进场、起始和中间进近阶段，建立了航空器运行过程中穿透超障高度的累积概率模型；第二阶段针对仪表着陆系统进近过程，分析了航空器与具有不同位置关系的多个建筑物间的总体碰撞概率。冲突风险从宏观和微观两个层次对多航空器运行中因争抢时空资源而发生交通冲突的现象展开研究。从预测飞行程序运行冲突的总体状态角度出发，应用随机过程方法，计算面向交叉/汇聚交通流冲突频次的数学期望及方差，推导出宏观冲突风险模型。从冲突发展演化过程的角度出发，提出了面向微观冲突分析，计算冲突严重度、冲突强度和累积冲突风险的三个模型。最后进行了算例仿真，并对结果进行了分析。
飞行程序运行的经济性分析，在于研究发现飞行程序经济性提升的潜在空间和优化方向。结合航空器运动模型、飞行成本指数和燃油消耗模型，创新性地提出了飞行程序运行成本的概念及其计算模型，提出了具体空域条件下的受限运行航迹和基准运行航迹的概念。在直接运行航迹基础上，利用连续下降进近/连续爬升离场运行模式，应用四阶龙格库塔方法，以飞行成本最小化为目标，对直接运行航迹的垂直剖面进行优化，并拟合为基准运行航迹。分别计算了基准运行成本和受限运行成本，将两者的偏差作为飞行程序运行的经济效率评估指标，并进行了算例分析。
飞行程序运行的管制适用性，是本论文飞行程序运行评估中的一个创新内容。在对航迹数据进行特征分析的基础上，建立了基于轨迹点比对与交换的航迹相似性度量方法，使用分层数据聚类法对航迹数据集进行航迹聚类分析，研究了航迹聚类集的平均飞行航迹构建方法；提出了飞行程序运行管制适用性的评价指标和测度方法，包括：纵向偏离度、侧向偏离度以及非常规航迹比例的概念及计算等，并进行了算例分析。
飞行程序运行造成的环境影响，包括噪声影响和气体排放影响。针对噪声影响评价，分析了几种常用的噪声评价量模型及其标准。针对我国机场噪声评价指标体系的不足，提出了适用于飞行程序运行噪声影响分析的评价量及其限值。建立了符合飞行阶段特征的航迹分段模型，提出应用状态矩阵和控制矩阵准确表示飞行程序的数学方法。基于模糊理论建立了噪声影响、飞行成本和导航约束的满意度评价函数，提出了应用3种启发式搜索规则和动态临域搜索方法的改进模拟退火算法，并进行了算例分析。根据具体机型的飞行程序运行仿真数据，针对国际民航组织排放指数模型的不足，提出了一种能较准确计算碳氢化合物、二氧化碳和氮氧化合物排放量的修正改进模型，并采用类似于经济效率评价的比对法，用排放效率指标来分析飞行程序运行的气体排放效率。
最后，研究了飞行程序运行仿真与评估平台的体系架构，重点阐述了飞行程序运行仿真计算引擎和飞行程序运行分析与评价子系统；总结了有关理论研究成果，建立了飞行程序运行评估的指标体系；并以一个实际的终端区为例，在仿真平台上进行了仿真验证。
本论文对仪表飞行程序运行评估的理论方法进行了比较全面、系统与深入的研究，所建立的评价指标及其测度模型具有较强的针对性和可操作性，并研发了相应的仿真评估平台。本论文的研究工作不仅完善了飞行程序运行评估的理论与方法，也弥补了我国在该领域仿真验证平台基础研究方面的相对薄弱与不足，将为进一步深入研究空中交通系统性能分析奠定技术基础。
The purpose of instrument flight procedure is to guarantee the safety and improve efficiency of airtraffic operations in terminal area, and flight procedure design is a scientific planning and reasonabledesign work for the arrival and departure air routes and the network consisted of them. Flight procedureis one of the most important airspace resources, and the basis of airspace planning, air traffic operationand airport constructions,etc. At the same time, procedure based operations become the direction oftechnology development in the future aviation transportation system. Evaluation of flight procedure’soperation include works about audit, evaluation and certification for flight procedure’s design schemesand it’s implementations, and then evacuation is a necessary step to ensure the rationality,feasibility forflight procedure.However, there is still lack of integrated, effective theory, models and methods for flightprocedure’s assessment.
This thesis conducted in-depth analysis on the concept and connotation of flight procedure’s eval-uation problem, summarized the relevant aspects of the latest research achievements, advanced a newtheoretical system in four aspects including safety risk, economic efficiency, air traffic serviceabilityand environment impact, and constructed a dynamic trajectory model with the combination of flightdynamics and kinetics, and a complete flight procedure’s operation simulation and analysis softwareplatform was developed based on the theory,models,and methods purposed above.
First of all, flight procedure’s operation safety and risk were researched systematically from multi-ple sides, multiple stages and multiple levels. Safety and risk includes mainly the risk of proximity ofterrains and air traffic conflict during flight. Proximity of terrains was consist of two stages. The firststage include departure procedures and the arrival,initial and inter-meditate segment of approach proce-dures. A cumulative risk model was established which calculated the probability of aircraft penetratingthe obstacle clearance altitude. Aiming at the Instrument Landing System approach process, the totalcollision probability was analyzed among aircraft and buildings with different position relationship inthe second stage.
From macroscopic and microscopic levels, conflict risk phenomenon were researched respectively,aiming at the competition for spatiotemporal resources during multiple aircraft operations. From theperspective of prediction of the overall state of conflict,using the stochastic process method, the math-ematical expectation and variance of conflict frequency were calculated among crossing or convergingair traffic flows, then a macro conflict risk model was derived. A micro conflict risk model was ana-lyzed which was oriented conflict evolution process, and three measure models about conflict severity, conflict intensity and cumulative risk were proposed.Finally, several case studies were designed andimplemented, and the results of the experiments were analyzed.
Economic analysis on flight procedure operation aimed at studying and revealing the potentialspace that enhanced economy by flight procedure’s optimization. Combined with aircraft dynamicmodels, flight cost index and fuel consumption models, the concept and the calculation models of flightprocedure operation cost were put forward innovative, and limited operation trajectory and referenceoperation trajectory were defined under specific airspace condition. According to a continuous descentapproach or continuous climb departure mode, the vertical profile of a direct horizontal route which wasdefined by the start point and the end point of a flight procedure,was optimized using four order Runge-Kutta method, with the objective of minimize the overall flight cost. Then, the optimized trajectorywas defined as a reference operation trajectory. Reference operation cost(ROC) and limited operationcost(LOC) were calculated respectively according to the models mentioned in this chapter. At last,economic efficiency was proposed by a function of ROC and LOC, and case study was carried out.
In this thesis, air traffic control(ATC) serviceability of flight procedure is an entire innovative con-tent. Based on the characteristics analysis of of history trajectory data of flight procedure，a measure-ment method of trajectories similarity was established by the comparison of tracks which have the sametime series. Trajectories data of flight procedures operation were clustered through hierarchical cluster-ing method, and the mean flight trajectory was constructed according to each trajectory cluster. Thenthree ATC serviceability evaluation indicators and measurement methods were proposed, which includethe concept and algorithms for longitudinal deviation，lateral deviation and outlier’s ratio. At last, acase study of trajectory clustering was implemented and the analysis result certificates the availabilityof clustering methods and the conceptual models of ATC serviceability.
The environmental impacts resulted by flight procedure operation include noise and exhaust gasemissions. Several noise impact evaluation models commonly used and their limit standards were ana-lyzed. Considering the shortages of airport noise assessment index system in China, a evaluation indexand its limit value which is applicable to noise impact analysis of flight procedure operations, was pro-posed. A segmented trajectory model according with the feature of flight phase was established whichcombined dynamics with kinematics, and a mathematical method describing trajectory using state ma-trix and control matrix was purposed. Several satisfaction evaluation functions about noise impact,flight cost and air navigation were established based on fuzzy theory. Three heuristic search rules anddynamic neighborhood search method were presented to improve simulated annealing algorithm, andcase study and analysis was finished. Considering the lack of the emission index model developed byInternational Civil Aviation Organization, a amended model which could calculated accurately the e- mission of HC,CO and NO was developed. A method similar to economy efficiency was used toanalyzed emission efficiency for flight procedure operation.
Finally, the architecture of the flight procedure operation simulation and evaluation platform wasstudied and two subsystems include the flight operation simulation engine subsystem and the perfor-mance analysis subsystem were exposited on emphasis. A real terminal airspace was modeled as anexample to design and carried out several synthetic simulation experiments.
The theories and methods for flight procedure operation’s elevation were researched comprehen-sively and systematically, the assessment indexes and it’s measurement models are sensible and practicalsolutions, and a helpful simulation and analyzed platform has been developed correspondingly. The re-search achievements of the thesis completes the theories of flight procedure evaluation, but also coverthe shortage of fundamental researches on simulation verification application platform in air traffic man-agement, and will provide a technological support on the further and deep researches in analysis on theperformance of air traffic system.
本论文深入地剖析了飞行程序运行评估问题的概念和内涵，总结了有关方面的最新研究成果，创新性地提出了由安全风险、经济效率、管制适用性和环境影响4个方面组成的飞行程序运行评估理论体系，构建了结合飞行动力学和飞行运动学的动态航迹运行模型，并以此为基础研发了功能较完备的飞行程序运行仿真与评估平台。
首先，从多侧面、多阶段和多层次对飞行程序运行安全风险展开系统地研究。安全风险主要包括飞行过程中的近地风险和空中交通冲突风险两个侧面。其中，近地风险又包括两个阶段，第一阶段针对离场飞行程序以及进进飞行程序的进场、起始和中间进近阶段，建立了航空器运行过程中穿透超障高度的累积概率模型；第二阶段针对仪表着陆系统进近过程，分析了航空器与具有不同位置关系的多个建筑物间的总体碰撞概率。冲突风险从宏观和微观两个层次对多航空器运行中因争抢时空资源而发生交通冲突的现象展开研究。从预测飞行程序运行冲突的总体状态角度出发，应用随机过程方法，计算面向交叉/汇聚交通流冲突频次的数学期望及方差，推导出宏观冲突风险模型。从冲突发展演化过程的角度出发，提出了面向微观冲突分析，计算冲突严重度、冲突强度和累积冲突风险的三个模型。最后进行了算例仿真，并对结果进行了分析。
飞行程序运行的经济性分析，在于研究发现飞行程序经济性提升的潜在空间和优化方向。结合航空器运动模型、飞行成本指数和燃油消耗模型，创新性地提出了飞行程序运行成本的概念及其计算模型，提出了具体空域条件下的受限运行航迹和基准运行航迹的概念。在直接运行航迹基础上，利用连续下降进近/连续爬升离场运行模式，应用四阶龙格库塔方法，以飞行成本最小化为目标，对直接运行航迹的垂直剖面进行优化，并拟合为基准运行航迹。分别计算了基准运行成本和受限运行成本，将两者的偏差作为飞行程序运行的经济效率评估指标，并进行了算例分析。
飞行程序运行的管制适用性，是本论文飞行程序运行评估中的一个创新内容。在对航迹数据进行特征分析的基础上，建立了基于轨迹点比对与交换的航迹相似性度量方法，使用分层数据聚类法对航迹数据集进行航迹聚类分析，研究了航迹聚类集的平均飞行航迹构建方法；提出了飞行程序运行管制适用性的评价指标和测度方法，包括：纵向偏离度、侧向偏离度以及非常规航迹比例的概念及计算等，并进行了算例分析。
飞行程序运行造成的环境影响，包括噪声影响和气体排放影响。针对噪声影响评价，分析了几种常用的噪声评价量模型及其标准。针对我国机场噪声评价指标体系的不足，提出了适用于飞行程序运行噪声影响分析的评价量及其限值。建立了符合飞行阶段特征的航迹分段模型，提出应用状态矩阵和控制矩阵准确表示飞行程序的数学方法。基于模糊理论建立了噪声影响、飞行成本和导航约束的满意度评价函数，提出了应用3种启发式搜索规则和动态临域搜索方法的改进模拟退火算法，并进行了算例分析。根据具体机型的飞行程序运行仿真数据，针对国际民航组织排放指数模型的不足，提出了一种能较准确计算碳氢化合物、二氧化碳和氮氧化合物排放量的修正改进模型，并采用类似于经济效率评价的比对法，用排放效率指标来分析飞行程序运行的气体排放效率。
最后，研究了飞行程序运行仿真与评估平台的体系架构，重点阐述了飞行程序运行仿真计算引擎和飞行程序运行分析与评价子系统；总结了有关理论研究成果，建立了飞行程序运行评估的指标体系；并以一个实际的终端区为例，在仿真平台上进行了仿真验证。
本论文对仪表飞行程序运行评估的理论方法进行了比较全面、系统与深入的研究，所建立的评价指标及其测度模型具有较强的针对性和可操作性，并研发了相应的仿真评估平台。本论文的研究工作不仅完善了飞行程序运行评估的理论与方法，也弥补了我国在该领域仿真验证平台基础研究方面的相对薄弱与不足，将为进一步深入研究空中交通系统性能分析奠定技术基础。
The purpose of instrument flight procedure is to guarantee the safety and improve efficiency of airtraffic operations in terminal area, and flight procedure design is a scientific planning and reasonabledesign work for the arrival and departure air routes and the network consisted of them. Flight procedureis one of the most important airspace resources, and the basis of airspace planning, air traffic operationand airport constructions,etc. At the same time, procedure based operations become the direction oftechnology development in the future aviation transportation system. Evaluation of flight procedure’soperation include works about audit, evaluation and certification for flight procedure’s design schemesand it’s implementations, and then evacuation is a necessary step to ensure the rationality,feasibility forflight procedure.However, there is still lack of integrated, effective theory, models and methods for flightprocedure’s assessment.
This thesis conducted in-depth analysis on the concept and connotation of flight procedure’s eval-uation problem, summarized the relevant aspects of the latest research achievements, advanced a newtheoretical system in four aspects including safety risk, economic efficiency, air traffic serviceabilityand environment impact, and constructed a dynamic trajectory model with the combination of flightdynamics and kinetics, and a complete flight procedure’s operation simulation and analysis softwareplatform was developed based on the theory,models,and methods purposed above.
First of all, flight procedure’s operation safety and risk were researched systematically from multi-ple sides, multiple stages and multiple levels. Safety and risk includes mainly the risk of proximity ofterrains and air traffic conflict during flight. Proximity of terrains was consist of two stages. The firststage include departure procedures and the arrival,initial and inter-meditate segment of approach proce-dures. A cumulative risk model was established which calculated the probability of aircraft penetratingthe obstacle clearance altitude. Aiming at the Instrument Landing System approach process, the totalcollision probability was analyzed among aircraft and buildings with different position relationship inthe second stage.
From macroscopic and microscopic levels, conflict risk phenomenon were researched respectively,aiming at the competition for spatiotemporal resources during multiple aircraft operations. From theperspective of prediction of the overall state of conflict,using the stochastic process method, the math-ematical expectation and variance of conflict frequency were calculated among crossing or convergingair traffic flows, then a macro conflict risk model was derived. A micro conflict risk model was ana-lyzed which was oriented conflict evolution process, and three measure models about conflict severity, conflict intensity and cumulative risk were proposed.Finally, several case studies were designed andimplemented, and the results of the experiments were analyzed.
Economic analysis on flight procedure operation aimed at studying and revealing the potentialspace that enhanced economy by flight procedure’s optimization. Combined with aircraft dynamicmodels, flight cost index and fuel consumption models, the concept and the calculation models of flightprocedure operation cost were put forward innovative, and limited operation trajectory and referenceoperation trajectory were defined under specific airspace condition. According to a continuous descentapproach or continuous climb departure mode, the vertical profile of a direct horizontal route which wasdefined by the start point and the end point of a flight procedure,was optimized using four order Runge-Kutta method, with the objective of minimize the overall flight cost. Then, the optimized trajectorywas defined as a reference operation trajectory. Reference operation cost(ROC) and limited operationcost(LOC) were calculated respectively according to the models mentioned in this chapter. At last,economic efficiency was proposed by a function of ROC and LOC, and case study was carried out.
In this thesis, air traffic control(ATC) serviceability of flight procedure is an entire innovative con-tent. Based on the characteristics analysis of of history trajectory data of flight procedure，a measure-ment method of trajectories similarity was established by the comparison of tracks which have the sametime series. Trajectories data of flight procedures operation were clustered through hierarchical cluster-ing method, and the mean flight trajectory was constructed according to each trajectory cluster. Thenthree ATC serviceability evaluation indicators and measurement methods were proposed, which includethe concept and algorithms for longitudinal deviation，lateral deviation and outlier’s ratio. At last, acase study of trajectory clustering was implemented and the analysis result certificates the availabilityof clustering methods and the conceptual models of ATC serviceability.
The environmental impacts resulted by flight procedure operation include noise and exhaust gasemissions. Several noise impact evaluation models commonly used and their limit standards were ana-lyzed. Considering the shortages of airport noise assessment index system in China, a evaluation indexand its limit value which is applicable to noise impact analysis of flight procedure operations, was pro-posed. A segmented trajectory model according with the feature of flight phase was established whichcombined dynamics with kinematics, and a mathematical method describing trajectory using state ma-trix and control matrix was purposed. Several satisfaction evaluation functions about noise impact,flight cost and air navigation were established based on fuzzy theory. Three heuristic search rules anddynamic neighborhood search method were presented to improve simulated annealing algorithm, andcase study and analysis was finished. Considering the lack of the emission index model developed byInternational Civil Aviation Organization, a amended model which could calculated accurately the e- mission of HC,CO and NO was developed. A method similar to economy efficiency was used toanalyzed emission efficiency for flight procedure operation.
Finally, the architecture of the flight procedure operation simulation and evaluation platform wasstudied and two subsystems include the flight operation simulation engine subsystem and the perfor-mance analysis subsystem were exposited on emphasis. A real terminal airspace was modeled as anexample to design and carried out several synthetic simulation experiments.
The theories and methods for flight procedure operation’s elevation were researched comprehen-sively and systematically, the assessment indexes and it’s measurement models are sensible and practicalsolutions, and a helpful simulation and analyzed platform has been developed correspondingly. The re-search achievements of the thesis completes the theories of flight procedure evaluation, but also coverthe shortage of fundamental researches on simulation verification application platform in air traffic man-agement, and will provide a technological support on the further and deep researches in analysis on theperformance of air traffic system.
引文
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