金井河流域径流演变规律研究
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摘要
金井河流域是一个水资源较为匮乏的区域,由于受到自然和人为因素的影响,金井河流域目前存在比较突出的水资源问题。本文根据该流域代表站螺岭桥站历年平均流量资料,探讨该流域径流的演变规律,为整个金井河流域的可持续发展提供依据。
本文运用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法、分段线性回归方法(SRST)和累计距平曲线联合滑动T检验等方法,对金井河流域径流演变规律进行研究,得出主要结论如下:
1、月径流演变规律:
通过变异性分析,发现螺岭桥站2月、3月、4月、5月、6月及11月月平均流量序列均没有发生均值突变;螺岭桥站1月、7月、8月、9月、10月、12月月平均流量序列分别在在1987年、1991年、1992年、1987年、1992年、1992年发生了均值突变。而趋势性分析得到,螺岭桥站3月、4月、5月、6月月平均流量呈下降趋势;1月、2月、7月、8月、9月、10月、11月和12月呈上升趋势,其中10月通过了90%的信度检验,而8月、11月、12月通过了95%的信度检验,1月、9月通过了99%的信度检验。
2、年径流演变规律:
(1)年均流量通过变异性分析,得出金井河流域螺岭桥站的年平均流量序列在1990年发生突变;而趋势性分析得到,螺岭桥站年平均流量呈上升趋势,但不明显,在变点之前为一个倒“V”型下降过程,在变点之后,径流量呈“V”上升趋势。
(2)年最大日流量和年最小日流量:通过变异性分析,年最大日流量在1992年发生突变,年最小日流量分别在1972年和1992年发生突变。而趋势性分析得到,螺岭桥站年最大日流量呈下降趋势,但不明显。螺岭桥站年最大日流量在变点之前为一个正“V”型上升过程,在变异点之后,流量呈倒“V”下降趋势;螺岭桥站年最小日流量呈上升趋势,很明显。螺岭桥站年最小日流量在第一个变异点之前为一个倒“V”型下降过程,在第一个变异点之后和第二个变异点之前,流量呈“V”上升趋势。
Jin Jinghe river-basin is an area with quite big shortage of water resource. Influenced by natural and man-made factors, Jin Jinghe river-basin has a serious problem of water resources at present. In this thesis, according to the average rate of flow in the past years of Luoling Bridge station which is a representative station for Jin Jinghe river-basin, we will study the evolving regulations of run-off of this river-basin, so as to supply data and basis for the sustainable development for the whole jin Jinghe river-basin.
Nonparameter Mann-Kendall Inspection Methods, Segmented Regression System over Time and Accumulated Anomaly curve combined Moving T Test and other methods have been applied in this thesis to study the evolving regulations of run-off of Jin Jinghe river-basin, and conclusions are summarized as following:
(1) Evolving regulation of monthly average rate of run-off: by variability analysis, it's found that there is no mutation of average rate in the order of monthly average flow rate of February, March, April, May, January and November at the Luoling Bridge station.
At Luoling Bridge station, Mutations of average rate occur to the order of monthly average flow rate in January, July, August, September, Ocotomber, December respectively in the year of 1987, 1991, 1992, 1987, 1992, 1992. Through analysis of trend pattern, we see that at Luoling Bridge station the monthly average flow rate of March, April, May, June is on a declining curve; while that of January, February, July, August, September, October, November and December is on the rising. October past 90% of the reliability test; August, November and December past 95% while January and September past 99% of that.
(2)Evolving regulation of yearly average rate of run-off: by variability analysis, it's found that order of yearly average rate of run-off at Luoling Bridge station has mutation in 1990; by analysis of trend pattern, the yearly average rate of flow declines on an inverted“V”pattern before mutation, and rises on a“V”pattern after the mutation.
(3) Maximum and minimum daily flow in a year: through variability analysis, maximum daily flow in a year had mutation in 1992 and minimum daily flow in a year had mutation respectively in 1972 and 1992. By the analysis of trend pattern, the maximum daily flow in a year at Luoling Bridge station rises at a“V”pattern before mutation and declines at an inverted“V”pattern after mustation; the minimum daily flow in a year declines on an inverted V pattern before mutation and rises at a“V”pattern between the first and second mutations.
本文运用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法、分段线性回归方法(SRST)和累计距平曲线联合滑动T检验等方法,对金井河流域径流演变规律进行研究,得出主要结论如下:
1、月径流演变规律:
通过变异性分析,发现螺岭桥站2月、3月、4月、5月、6月及11月月平均流量序列均没有发生均值突变;螺岭桥站1月、7月、8月、9月、10月、12月月平均流量序列分别在在1987年、1991年、1992年、1987年、1992年、1992年发生了均值突变。而趋势性分析得到,螺岭桥站3月、4月、5月、6月月平均流量呈下降趋势;1月、2月、7月、8月、9月、10月、11月和12月呈上升趋势,其中10月通过了90%的信度检验,而8月、11月、12月通过了95%的信度检验,1月、9月通过了99%的信度检验。
2、年径流演变规律:
(1)年均流量通过变异性分析,得出金井河流域螺岭桥站的年平均流量序列在1990年发生突变;而趋势性分析得到,螺岭桥站年平均流量呈上升趋势,但不明显,在变点之前为一个倒“V”型下降过程,在变点之后,径流量呈“V”上升趋势。
(2)年最大日流量和年最小日流量:通过变异性分析,年最大日流量在1992年发生突变,年最小日流量分别在1972年和1992年发生突变。而趋势性分析得到,螺岭桥站年最大日流量呈下降趋势,但不明显。螺岭桥站年最大日流量在变点之前为一个正“V”型上升过程,在变异点之后,流量呈倒“V”下降趋势;螺岭桥站年最小日流量呈上升趋势,很明显。螺岭桥站年最小日流量在第一个变异点之前为一个倒“V”型下降过程,在第一个变异点之后和第二个变异点之前,流量呈“V”上升趋势。
Jin Jinghe river-basin is an area with quite big shortage of water resource. Influenced by natural and man-made factors, Jin Jinghe river-basin has a serious problem of water resources at present. In this thesis, according to the average rate of flow in the past years of Luoling Bridge station which is a representative station for Jin Jinghe river-basin, we will study the evolving regulations of run-off of this river-basin, so as to supply data and basis for the sustainable development for the whole jin Jinghe river-basin.
Nonparameter Mann-Kendall Inspection Methods, Segmented Regression System over Time and Accumulated Anomaly curve combined Moving T Test and other methods have been applied in this thesis to study the evolving regulations of run-off of Jin Jinghe river-basin, and conclusions are summarized as following:
(1) Evolving regulation of monthly average rate of run-off: by variability analysis, it's found that there is no mutation of average rate in the order of monthly average flow rate of February, March, April, May, January and November at the Luoling Bridge station.
At Luoling Bridge station, Mutations of average rate occur to the order of monthly average flow rate in January, July, August, September, Ocotomber, December respectively in the year of 1987, 1991, 1992, 1987, 1992, 1992. Through analysis of trend pattern, we see that at Luoling Bridge station the monthly average flow rate of March, April, May, June is on a declining curve; while that of January, February, July, August, September, October, November and December is on the rising. October past 90% of the reliability test; August, November and December past 95% while January and September past 99% of that.
(2)Evolving regulation of yearly average rate of run-off: by variability analysis, it's found that order of yearly average rate of run-off at Luoling Bridge station has mutation in 1990; by analysis of trend pattern, the yearly average rate of flow declines on an inverted“V”pattern before mutation, and rises on a“V”pattern after the mutation.
(3) Maximum and minimum daily flow in a year: through variability analysis, maximum daily flow in a year had mutation in 1992 and minimum daily flow in a year had mutation respectively in 1972 and 1992. By the analysis of trend pattern, the maximum daily flow in a year at Luoling Bridge station rises at a“V”pattern before mutation and declines at an inverted“V”pattern after mustation; the minimum daily flow in a year declines on an inverted V pattern before mutation and rises at a“V”pattern between the first and second mutations.
引文
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