FLHC项目进度计划的研究
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摘要
FLHC项目位于四川省成都市成华区,是一个典型的住宅类房地产开发项目。本文主要研究如何把项目计划管理理论运用于其进度计划的制定之中。
首先基于WBS任务分解结构,把纷繁复杂的FLHC项目开发的全过程逐级分解为若干的子任务或单个工序。确定任务之间的相关性,估计完成各个任务所需的工期。运用MS-Project软件制定了FLHC项目的网络计划。运用CPM关键路径法,计算FLHC项目各个子任务的时间参数,找出FLHC项目的关键路径,计算出整个FLHC项目的最早完成时间即项目的总工期。
由于每个项目都有其自身特点并且受到不同的外部因素影响,所以每个子任务的实际完成时间都可能与经验估计有偏差。我们有必要运用PERT计划评审技术来评估FLHC项目开盘在计划工期内完成的概率,然后对项目进度计划进行调整,计划出必要的但又不会造成浪费的工期。
由于PERT方法具有一定的局限性,我们还引进蒙特卡洛仿真技术来评估FLHC项目开盘在计划工期内完成的概率。项目完成的时间风险可以得到较精确的揭示;而且通过灵敏度分析,可以判断哪些工序对项目完成时间变动的影响程度最大,以便我们在实施中制定有针对性的措施。经过蒙特卡洛仿真,我们发现之前的PERT方法偏于乐观,于是我们对FLHC项目开盘前的进度计划做进一步的调整,使其更加接近真实的情况。
采用蒙特卡洛仿真技术,我们可以对FLHC项目调整后的开盘前进度计划的按期完成有了很大的把握,但是由于FLHC项目对现金流提出了较高的要求,必须把开盘前的工期压缩到我们理想的时间点。我们准备通过付出额外成本的方法来减少一部分工序的工期来实现在理想的时间点开盘。为了使付出的额外成本最低,或者最有效率,我们采用了线性规划的方法,来求出使哪些工序的工期压缩到一个什么样的程度是最优的。
最后,我们可以为FLHC项目制定出一个理想的进度计划,该计划不但满足了公司对进度的严格要求,同时具有较高的完成概率和较低的实现成本。
The FLHC project lies in the Chenghua district of Chengdu, which is the metropolis of Sichuan Province. It is a typical housing class real property development project. This text mainly researches how to apply the project plan management theory to making schedule.
Decomposing the structure on the basis of the WBS task at first, we had resolved the whole course of the FLHC project which was numerous and complicated into several sub tasks or single process step by step. Then, we had confirmed the relevance between the tasks. And, we had estimated tentatively the time limit when each task needs. According to the above-mentioned key elements, we had utilized MS-Project software to make the network plan of the FLHC project. This network plan would be the basic platforms to develop the succeeding jobs.
Using the CPM key route means, we had calculated the time parameter of every stature task of the FLHC project. It is important for us to find out which is the key task to make it on schedule from the numerous sub tasks of the FLHC project. According to the key route, we had calculated the whole FLHC project deadline.
Because each project had its own characteristic and was influenced by different external factors, its actual deadline might have deviation with the estimate by experience. The progress arrangement of opening in the FLHC project was important, especially when the actual opening time and estimated opening time having relatively loud deviations, or the project not opening on schedule and causing waste of advertising expense or rupture of fund chain of Company, or the plan being too loose to be efficient. It was necessary for us to use the PERT to assess the probability that the FLHC project opening would finish within plan time limit, and then adjusted progress schedule of the project, to find the necessary and not-causing -waste time limit for a project.
Because the PERT method is limited, we had to introduce the Monte Carlo simulation to assess the probability that the FLHC project opening would finish within plan time limit. This method would be more veracious to describe the interaction between every process than the PERT, and it could reflect that the change of time of process impact on the key route and project deadline. The time risk that the project finishes could get more accurate announcing through Frequency chart, through sector analysis, we could find out which process causing the project deadline changing most, so that we make the best measure in the project. Through the Monte Carlo simulation, we found the PERT method was partial to the optimism, and then we planed to make further adjustment to the progress before the FLHC project opening, to make it closer to the true situation.
Adopt the Monte Carlo simulation, we could be sure to finish it on schedule after the FLHC project opening had adjusted. But because of the higher requirement for the cash flow of the FLHC project, it had made us to compress the time limit to our ideal time point before the opening. We planed to through the means of paying extra cost to reduce a part of time limit for a project. For the Least paying extra cost or the most efficient, we had adopted the method of the linear programming, to find out what kind of extent was optimum to compress the time limit. According to the linear programming, we had made the adjustment again to the FLHC project opening progress.
Finally, we could make an ideal progress plan for the FLHC project, it satisfied company's strict rule of project, and had higher success probability and lower realization cost at the same time.
首先基于WBS任务分解结构,把纷繁复杂的FLHC项目开发的全过程逐级分解为若干的子任务或单个工序。确定任务之间的相关性,估计完成各个任务所需的工期。运用MS-Project软件制定了FLHC项目的网络计划。运用CPM关键路径法,计算FLHC项目各个子任务的时间参数,找出FLHC项目的关键路径,计算出整个FLHC项目的最早完成时间即项目的总工期。
由于每个项目都有其自身特点并且受到不同的外部因素影响,所以每个子任务的实际完成时间都可能与经验估计有偏差。我们有必要运用PERT计划评审技术来评估FLHC项目开盘在计划工期内完成的概率,然后对项目进度计划进行调整,计划出必要的但又不会造成浪费的工期。
由于PERT方法具有一定的局限性,我们还引进蒙特卡洛仿真技术来评估FLHC项目开盘在计划工期内完成的概率。项目完成的时间风险可以得到较精确的揭示;而且通过灵敏度分析,可以判断哪些工序对项目完成时间变动的影响程度最大,以便我们在实施中制定有针对性的措施。经过蒙特卡洛仿真,我们发现之前的PERT方法偏于乐观,于是我们对FLHC项目开盘前的进度计划做进一步的调整,使其更加接近真实的情况。
采用蒙特卡洛仿真技术,我们可以对FLHC项目调整后的开盘前进度计划的按期完成有了很大的把握,但是由于FLHC项目对现金流提出了较高的要求,必须把开盘前的工期压缩到我们理想的时间点。我们准备通过付出额外成本的方法来减少一部分工序的工期来实现在理想的时间点开盘。为了使付出的额外成本最低,或者最有效率,我们采用了线性规划的方法,来求出使哪些工序的工期压缩到一个什么样的程度是最优的。
最后,我们可以为FLHC项目制定出一个理想的进度计划,该计划不但满足了公司对进度的严格要求,同时具有较高的完成概率和较低的实现成本。
The FLHC project lies in the Chenghua district of Chengdu, which is the metropolis of Sichuan Province. It is a typical housing class real property development project. This text mainly researches how to apply the project plan management theory to making schedule.
Decomposing the structure on the basis of the WBS task at first, we had resolved the whole course of the FLHC project which was numerous and complicated into several sub tasks or single process step by step. Then, we had confirmed the relevance between the tasks. And, we had estimated tentatively the time limit when each task needs. According to the above-mentioned key elements, we had utilized MS-Project software to make the network plan of the FLHC project. This network plan would be the basic platforms to develop the succeeding jobs.
Using the CPM key route means, we had calculated the time parameter of every stature task of the FLHC project. It is important for us to find out which is the key task to make it on schedule from the numerous sub tasks of the FLHC project. According to the key route, we had calculated the whole FLHC project deadline.
Because each project had its own characteristic and was influenced by different external factors, its actual deadline might have deviation with the estimate by experience. The progress arrangement of opening in the FLHC project was important, especially when the actual opening time and estimated opening time having relatively loud deviations, or the project not opening on schedule and causing waste of advertising expense or rupture of fund chain of Company, or the plan being too loose to be efficient. It was necessary for us to use the PERT to assess the probability that the FLHC project opening would finish within plan time limit, and then adjusted progress schedule of the project, to find the necessary and not-causing -waste time limit for a project.
Because the PERT method is limited, we had to introduce the Monte Carlo simulation to assess the probability that the FLHC project opening would finish within plan time limit. This method would be more veracious to describe the interaction between every process than the PERT, and it could reflect that the change of time of process impact on the key route and project deadline. The time risk that the project finishes could get more accurate announcing through Frequency chart, through sector analysis, we could find out which process causing the project deadline changing most, so that we make the best measure in the project. Through the Monte Carlo simulation, we found the PERT method was partial to the optimism, and then we planed to make further adjustment to the progress before the FLHC project opening, to make it closer to the true situation.
Adopt the Monte Carlo simulation, we could be sure to finish it on schedule after the FLHC project opening had adjusted. But because of the higher requirement for the cash flow of the FLHC project, it had made us to compress the time limit to our ideal time point before the opening. We planed to through the means of paying extra cost to reduce a part of time limit for a project. For the Least paying extra cost or the most efficient, we had adopted the method of the linear programming, to find out what kind of extent was optimum to compress the time limit. According to the linear programming, we had made the adjustment again to the FLHC project opening progress.
Finally, we could make an ideal progress plan for the FLHC project, it satisfied company's strict rule of project, and had higher success probability and lower realization cost at the same time.
引文
[1]Frederick S.hillier,Mark S.hillIer,Introduction to Management Science[M],2004.
[2]Jackson S E.Team composition in organizational settings:Issues in managing an increasingly diverse work force.Group process and productivity[M].Newbury Park,CA:Sage,1992.138-173.
[3]钱颂迪.运筹学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1990.2882297.
[4]邱苑华.项目管理学——工程管理理论、方法与实践[M].第二版.科学出版社,2002:2-4.
[5]王立文,潘文彦,杨建平.现代项目管理基础.北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1997.
[6]肖田元,张燕云,陈加栋.系统仿真导论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000:132-210.
[7]徐南荣,仲伟俊.科学决策理论与方法[M].南京:东南大学出版社,1996:576-598.
[8]王晓民.Excel金融计算专业教程[M].第二版.北京:清华大学出版社,2004:182.
[9]Rodney Tumer.项目管理手册—改进过程、实现战略目标[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:176-245.
[10]James P Lewis.项目计划、进度与控制[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:86-108.
[11]Meredith J R,Mantel S J.项目管理:管理新视角[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2002:106-183.
[12]哈罗德 科兹纳.项目管理:计划、进度和控制的系统方法[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2002:692-707.
[13]Chiu-ChiWei,Ping-Hung Liu,Yong-Chin Tsai.Resource-constrained project management using enhanced theory of constraint[J].International Journal of Project Management,2002,20:561-567.
[14]Chinho Lin,Ping-Jung HsiehA fuzzy decision support system for strategic portfolio managementDecision Support Systems 2004,38:383-398.
[15]Gutierrez G J,P Kouvelis.The Parkinson's Law and its implications for project management[J].Management Science,1991,37(8):990-1001.
[16]Gramham K Rand.Critical chain:the theory of constraints applied to project management[J].International Journal of Project Management,2000,18: 173-177.
[17]Jeffrey Elton,Justin Roe.Bringing discipline to project management[J].Harvard Business Review,1998,3:153-159.
[18]Kolisch R,Sprecher A,Drexl A.Characterization and generation of a general class of resource-constrained project-scheduling problem[J].Management Science,1995,10:1693-1703.
[19]Michel J,Hambrick D.Diversification posture and top management team characteristics[J].Academy of Management Journal,1992,35.
[20]Thomas P R,Salhi S.An investigation into the relationship of heuristic performance with network-resource characteristics[J]Journal of the Operational Research Society,1997,48:34-43
[21]陈伟,最优项目组合模型的建立及应用,现代情报,2004,12,186-187
[22]程锡礼,张延林,崔新生.蒙特卡洛仿真在工程项目进度管理中的应用[J].工业工程,2004,7(3):51-55
[23]蔡宁,徐杰,王巨.模拟法在建设项目进度管理中的应用[J].价值工程,2004,6:88-90.
[24]曹光明,白思俊.国外PERT/CPM网络计划技术发展的三个方面[J].系统工程理论与实践,1993,5(3):1-10.
[25]李宁,吴之明.网络计划技术的新发展—项目关键链管理[J].公路,2002,10:85-86.
[26]李强,张静,张耀坦.蒙特卡洛仿真技术在工程进度计划中的应用[J].长江大学学报(自科版)理工卷,2007,(02).
[27]刘煜明,王卓甫,张益民.资源约束下PERT施工进度计划的优化[J].水利水电科技进展,2007,(01).
[28]刘士新,王梦光,唐加福.资源受限工程调度问题的优化方法综述[J].控制与决策,2001,16:647-649.
[29]马涛,高跃春.建设工程进度的协调与控制[J].黑龙江交通科技,2005,(06)
[30]卜继勘.蒙特卡洛随机模拟法在水电工程风险分析中的应用[J].东北水利水电,2003,(06).
[31]唐力波,马力.关键链研究与基于关键链的项目管理系统[J].计算机工程与实践,2004,25(11):2077-2078.
[32]王仁超,欧阳斌,褚春超.工程网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真研究[J]水利水电技术,2003,(11).
[33]万伟,蔡晨.基于PERT/CPM的关键链管理[J].中国管理科学.2003,6:35-39
[34]王仁超,欧阳斌,褚春超.工程网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真及进度风险分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2004:914-923.
[35]杨永清,许先云.多资源约束下的任务排序准则及其优化[J].系统工程理论 与实践,1995,(5):283.
[36]赵道致,廖华,刘一骝.关键链:一种新型的项目进度计划方法[J].天津理工大学学报,2005,21(2):8-12.
[37]张猛,张洪才.Monte-Carlo模拟在施工进度方案综合评价中的应用[J]建筑技术开发,2004,(04).
[2]Jackson S E.Team composition in organizational settings:Issues in managing an increasingly diverse work force.Group process and productivity[M].Newbury Park,CA:Sage,1992.138-173.
[3]钱颂迪.运筹学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1990.2882297.
[4]邱苑华.项目管理学——工程管理理论、方法与实践[M].第二版.科学出版社,2002:2-4.
[5]王立文,潘文彦,杨建平.现代项目管理基础.北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1997.
[6]肖田元,张燕云,陈加栋.系统仿真导论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000:132-210.
[7]徐南荣,仲伟俊.科学决策理论与方法[M].南京:东南大学出版社,1996:576-598.
[8]王晓民.Excel金融计算专业教程[M].第二版.北京:清华大学出版社,2004:182.
[9]Rodney Tumer.项目管理手册—改进过程、实现战略目标[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:176-245.
[10]James P Lewis.项目计划、进度与控制[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:86-108.
[11]Meredith J R,Mantel S J.项目管理:管理新视角[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2002:106-183.
[12]哈罗德 科兹纳.项目管理:计划、进度和控制的系统方法[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2002:692-707.
[13]Chiu-ChiWei,Ping-Hung Liu,Yong-Chin Tsai.Resource-constrained project management using enhanced theory of constraint[J].International Journal of Project Management,2002,20:561-567.
[14]Chinho Lin,Ping-Jung HsiehA fuzzy decision support system for strategic portfolio managementDecision Support Systems 2004,38:383-398.
[15]Gutierrez G J,P Kouvelis.The Parkinson's Law and its implications for project management[J].Management Science,1991,37(8):990-1001.
[16]Gramham K Rand.Critical chain:the theory of constraints applied to project management[J].International Journal of Project Management,2000,18: 173-177.
[17]Jeffrey Elton,Justin Roe.Bringing discipline to project management[J].Harvard Business Review,1998,3:153-159.
[18]Kolisch R,Sprecher A,Drexl A.Characterization and generation of a general class of resource-constrained project-scheduling problem[J].Management Science,1995,10:1693-1703.
[19]Michel J,Hambrick D.Diversification posture and top management team characteristics[J].Academy of Management Journal,1992,35.
[20]Thomas P R,Salhi S.An investigation into the relationship of heuristic performance with network-resource characteristics[J]Journal of the Operational Research Society,1997,48:34-43
[21]陈伟,最优项目组合模型的建立及应用,现代情报,2004,12,186-187
[22]程锡礼,张延林,崔新生.蒙特卡洛仿真在工程项目进度管理中的应用[J].工业工程,2004,7(3):51-55
[23]蔡宁,徐杰,王巨.模拟法在建设项目进度管理中的应用[J].价值工程,2004,6:88-90.
[24]曹光明,白思俊.国外PERT/CPM网络计划技术发展的三个方面[J].系统工程理论与实践,1993,5(3):1-10.
[25]李宁,吴之明.网络计划技术的新发展—项目关键链管理[J].公路,2002,10:85-86.
[26]李强,张静,张耀坦.蒙特卡洛仿真技术在工程进度计划中的应用[J].长江大学学报(自科版)理工卷,2007,(02).
[27]刘煜明,王卓甫,张益民.资源约束下PERT施工进度计划的优化[J].水利水电科技进展,2007,(01).
[28]刘士新,王梦光,唐加福.资源受限工程调度问题的优化方法综述[J].控制与决策,2001,16:647-649.
[29]马涛,高跃春.建设工程进度的协调与控制[J].黑龙江交通科技,2005,(06)
[30]卜继勘.蒙特卡洛随机模拟法在水电工程风险分析中的应用[J].东北水利水电,2003,(06).
[31]唐力波,马力.关键链研究与基于关键链的项目管理系统[J].计算机工程与实践,2004,25(11):2077-2078.
[32]王仁超,欧阳斌,褚春超.工程网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真研究[J]水利水电技术,2003,(11).
[33]万伟,蔡晨.基于PERT/CPM的关键链管理[J].中国管理科学.2003,6:35-39
[34]王仁超,欧阳斌,褚春超.工程网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真及进度风险分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2004:914-923.
[35]杨永清,许先云.多资源约束下的任务排序准则及其优化[J].系统工程理论 与实践,1995,(5):283.
[36]赵道致,廖华,刘一骝.关键链:一种新型的项目进度计划方法[J].天津理工大学学报,2005,21(2):8-12.
[37]张猛,张洪才.Monte-Carlo模拟在施工进度方案综合评价中的应用[J]建筑技术开发,2004,(04).