房地产投资决策中贝叶斯理论的应用研究
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摘要
房地产业在整个国民经济体系中属于先导性、基础性产业,处于主导产业的地位。房地产因其所固有的特殊性,决定了房地产投资具有周期长、投资额大、影响因素复杂等与其它投资不同的特点,这些特点决定了房地产投资是一种高风险的投资活动。如何估计和分析这些风险,较准确地进行房地产投资决策,是房地产投资者面临的迫切需要解决的问题。本文以这一实际问题为背景,较全面地分析了房地产投资中的风险因素,并力求找到一种较为科学的决策方法,来降低投资决策的风险程度。
房地产投资面临的风险多种多样,引起风险的原因也形形色色,其后果程度也各不相同,具体分析这些风险是进行投资决策首要的一个环节。本文根据房地产投资的特点,结合我国房地产业的现状,借鉴现代投资组合理论和资本资产定价模型中关于风险划分的思想,将房地产投资过程中存在的风险划分为系统风险和非系统风险,并对这两种风险进行了较为系统和详细的分析。房地产投资决策涉及的因素多、影响面广,并且这些因素具有一定的不确定性,因而房地产投资决策是一种风险决策。
房地产项目方案的选择是房地产开发过程中重要的决策问题之一。房地产投资者在决策时,需要根据历史资料或个人经验,预测未来房地产的市场状态,估计直接影响经济效益的各种技术经济数据,如销售单价、成本、收益、利率、工期等。然而,这种预测和估计往往带有一定的主观性,不能准确反映客观情况,因而就有可能造成决策失误。本文所提出的房地产贝叶斯风险决策方法能较好地弥补这个缺陷。它通过市场调查增加信息量,对先验概率进行修正,从而提高决策者对未来可能性的把握,达到降低决策风险的目的。
最后对河北省邯郸市xx项目风险决策时方案选择的实际情况进行了系统的分析、研究总结,以此给广大中小房地产企业以启示或参考的作用。实证分析同时表明,贝叶斯方法可以有效地进行房地产项目方案的选择,有利于减少项目开发的前期风险。贝叶斯方法提供了一种有效的风险预测手段,能够将主观估计与客观估计结合起来,并能随着资料的不断增加而不断进行预测,使得预测更加精确。最后本文对研究的结果进行总结分析了房地产投资贝叶斯风险决策方法本身存在的局限性,指出随着房地产投资市场的不断成熟以及新理论、新技术的应用,该方法将会得到不断完善和发展,其实用性也会得到较大提高。
Real estate as a fundamental and dominant industry gradually becomes the pillar industry of the national economy. The specialty of real estate determinates its numerous characteristics,such as long investment period,high demand of investment and complicated influencing factors,which make it distinguished from other investments and induce its high risk. Therefore,the method of investigating and analyzing these risks,and consequently deciding strategies of real estate investment,are now demanded by real estate investors. In the purpose of the actual demand,this paper concentrates on analyzing risk factors in real estate investment and pursuing a scientific decision-make method to reduce risks in investment decision-making.
The risks faced in real estate investment are highly variable,and causes for these risks differ greatly,introducing different consequences. To analyze these risks weighs a lot in investment decision-making. Based on specialty of real estate investment and combined with its actuality in China,the risks presenting in real estate investment are dividend into two categories,systematic risks and non-systematic risks,which draw lesson from risk division presenting in Modern Portfolio Theory(MTP) and Capital Assets Pricing Models(CAPM). Both these two categories of risks are investigated in detail in this paper. Factors involved in real estate investment are highly dispersed and uncertain,so that decision-making in real estate investment is typically risky.
Project selection is an important decision-making issue in real estate development. When making decisions,the investor must predict markets of real estate in visible future and estimate collections of different tech-economic data(e.g. unit price,cost,benefits,rate of interest and construction period) that influence economic cost,benefits,rate of interest and construction period that influence economic benefits,based on historic records or personal experience. But,these predictions and estimations are potentially subjective and can not represent the actuality accurately,thus possibly resulting in decision-making mistakes. The Bayes decision-making method in real estate risk analysis,as proposed in this paper,is proved efficient in avoiding these mistakes. It collects information by market investigation,amends the prior probability,and consequently increases assurance of the investor on future success,so that the risk of decision-making is reduced.
In the end,analyze by the numbers and conclude the real situation of project selection during item risk decision-making in Handan, HeBei province, so as to give illumination and reference to the medium or small real estate corporations. Empirical analysis also shows that the Bayesian method can effectively facilitate the selection of real estate projects and reduce early-stage risks of project developments. Bayes method provide an effective way to forecast risks, which can band personality and impersonality together and forecast risks in time with the continuous increase in information. Finally,results of the study are summarized, and limitations of Bayes risk decision-making method in real estate investment are analyzed. Conclusion is drawn that,with the development in real estate investment market and introduction of new theories and techniques ,the method proposed can be developed and perfected continuously,accompanied with increase of its applicability.
房地产投资面临的风险多种多样,引起风险的原因也形形色色,其后果程度也各不相同,具体分析这些风险是进行投资决策首要的一个环节。本文根据房地产投资的特点,结合我国房地产业的现状,借鉴现代投资组合理论和资本资产定价模型中关于风险划分的思想,将房地产投资过程中存在的风险划分为系统风险和非系统风险,并对这两种风险进行了较为系统和详细的分析。房地产投资决策涉及的因素多、影响面广,并且这些因素具有一定的不确定性,因而房地产投资决策是一种风险决策。
房地产项目方案的选择是房地产开发过程中重要的决策问题之一。房地产投资者在决策时,需要根据历史资料或个人经验,预测未来房地产的市场状态,估计直接影响经济效益的各种技术经济数据,如销售单价、成本、收益、利率、工期等。然而,这种预测和估计往往带有一定的主观性,不能准确反映客观情况,因而就有可能造成决策失误。本文所提出的房地产贝叶斯风险决策方法能较好地弥补这个缺陷。它通过市场调查增加信息量,对先验概率进行修正,从而提高决策者对未来可能性的把握,达到降低决策风险的目的。
最后对河北省邯郸市xx项目风险决策时方案选择的实际情况进行了系统的分析、研究总结,以此给广大中小房地产企业以启示或参考的作用。实证分析同时表明,贝叶斯方法可以有效地进行房地产项目方案的选择,有利于减少项目开发的前期风险。贝叶斯方法提供了一种有效的风险预测手段,能够将主观估计与客观估计结合起来,并能随着资料的不断增加而不断进行预测,使得预测更加精确。最后本文对研究的结果进行总结分析了房地产投资贝叶斯风险决策方法本身存在的局限性,指出随着房地产投资市场的不断成熟以及新理论、新技术的应用,该方法将会得到不断完善和发展,其实用性也会得到较大提高。
Real estate as a fundamental and dominant industry gradually becomes the pillar industry of the national economy. The specialty of real estate determinates its numerous characteristics,such as long investment period,high demand of investment and complicated influencing factors,which make it distinguished from other investments and induce its high risk. Therefore,the method of investigating and analyzing these risks,and consequently deciding strategies of real estate investment,are now demanded by real estate investors. In the purpose of the actual demand,this paper concentrates on analyzing risk factors in real estate investment and pursuing a scientific decision-make method to reduce risks in investment decision-making.
The risks faced in real estate investment are highly variable,and causes for these risks differ greatly,introducing different consequences. To analyze these risks weighs a lot in investment decision-making. Based on specialty of real estate investment and combined with its actuality in China,the risks presenting in real estate investment are dividend into two categories,systematic risks and non-systematic risks,which draw lesson from risk division presenting in Modern Portfolio Theory(MTP) and Capital Assets Pricing Models(CAPM). Both these two categories of risks are investigated in detail in this paper. Factors involved in real estate investment are highly dispersed and uncertain,so that decision-making in real estate investment is typically risky.
Project selection is an important decision-making issue in real estate development. When making decisions,the investor must predict markets of real estate in visible future and estimate collections of different tech-economic data(e.g. unit price,cost,benefits,rate of interest and construction period) that influence economic cost,benefits,rate of interest and construction period that influence economic benefits,based on historic records or personal experience. But,these predictions and estimations are potentially subjective and can not represent the actuality accurately,thus possibly resulting in decision-making mistakes. The Bayes decision-making method in real estate risk analysis,as proposed in this paper,is proved efficient in avoiding these mistakes. It collects information by market investigation,amends the prior probability,and consequently increases assurance of the investor on future success,so that the risk of decision-making is reduced.
In the end,analyze by the numbers and conclude the real situation of project selection during item risk decision-making in Handan, HeBei province, so as to give illumination and reference to the medium or small real estate corporations. Empirical analysis also shows that the Bayesian method can effectively facilitate the selection of real estate projects and reduce early-stage risks of project developments. Bayes method provide an effective way to forecast risks, which can band personality and impersonality together and forecast risks in time with the continuous increase in information. Finally,results of the study are summarized, and limitations of Bayes risk decision-making method in real estate investment are analyzed. Conclusion is drawn that,with the development in real estate investment market and introduction of new theories and techniques ,the method proposed can be developed and perfected continuously,accompanied with increase of its applicability.
引文
1国家统计局编,中国统计年鉴,2008
2翁彩虹《浅谈风险型决策在房地产投资中的应用》[J].国外建材科技,2003,(5):107-108
3孙玉波.房地产项目开发的风险分析.中国房地产.1995,(11):53～56
4陈立文.《项目投资风险分析理论与方法》.机械工业出版社.2004:98-131
5刘薇.孙雷霆.胡征宇《房地产投资风险决策模型研究》[J].吉林建筑工程学院学报,2004,(1):44-48
6温海珍.贾生华.杨志威《BAYES方法在房地产项目方案比选中的应用》[J].土木工程学报,2006,(9):108-111
7岳意定.王雄《房地产投资的多属性模糊贝叶斯决策》[J].统计与决策,2007,(5):42-44
8李启明,李心丹等.房地产投资风险与决策.东南大学出版社.2003:112～123
9叶剑平.2003我国房地产市场特点.建筑经济.2003,(2):34～35
10尹鲁生.房地产投资风险决策中贝叶斯理论应用之探讨.[硕士学位论文].西安:西安建筑科技大学管理科学与工程,2005
11王青荣.贝叶斯决策理论在房地产开发项目风险决策中应用和局限性分析研究.[硕士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学工商管理,2007
12苗琦.基于贝叶斯决策理论的房地产投资风险决策研究.[硕士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2003
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2翁彩虹《浅谈风险型决策在房地产投资中的应用》[J].国外建材科技,2003,(5):107-108
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