我国住宅房地产市场的供求分析
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摘要
经过十几年的发展,我国房地产行业由改革前的政府分配体制转变为市场调节体制,体制上的改革促使我国房地产市场的迅速发展,在我国经济发展的过程中起着重要作用。我国是世界第一人口大国,我国居民对于住宅类房地产商品的需求非常旺盛,使得我国的房地产市场会长期处于卖方市场,加之目前我国正处于城市化进程的关键阶段,大量农村人口进入城市，这部分人群的住房需求加剧了我国房地产市场供不应求的局面。
目前,房地产价格的不断走高使其已成为阻碍我国经济健康发展的因素之一。一方面,相对较高的收益率使我国一部分企业将资源投入房地产市场,导致我国实体经济越来越萧条；另一方而,过高的房地产价格不断吞噬着我国居民财富,房地产价格的上升,房产需求者拿出更多资金去购买。这使得居民的消费能力下降,不利于我国政府倡导的扩大内需政策的贯彻和执行。
本文共分为四个部分：一、引言。该部分介绍了论文的研究背景、研究目的、本文研究的理论意义与现实意义以及研究现状。研究背景介绍了我国房地产行业在改革开放后的发展情况,目前存在的突出问题及金融危机后房地产市场所处的状态：研究目的论述了目前我国房地产市场对社会的现实影响及我国房地产市场存在的突出问题等内容：本文研究的理论意义与现实意义阐述了在理论研究所做出的努力和探索及消费者对房产需求的决策上提供少量建议：研究现状部分主要概述了部分学者对我国房地产市场存在的问题做出的有价值的研究。二、房地产市场特征及影响房地产供求的因素分析。首先简要介绍房地产市场的基本特征然后对房地产市场供求影响因素进行较为详细论述,并对影响我国房地产市场的供求因素进行理论分析；三、我国住宅房地产市场的供求状况分析。先总体上对我国的住宅市场的供求状况进行把握,随后对商品房、经济适用房住宅进行分析；最后,对房地产市场中的投资需求进行了思考；四、对各行为主体的决策建议。
After ten years of development, China's real estate industry has changed from the distribution system before the reform into a system of market regulation. Institutional reform promotes the rapid development of China's real estate market, which plays an important role in China's economic development. China is the world's most populous country, Residents have a very strong demand for real estate commodities and hence the real estate will be a long period of seller's market, the current process of urbanization in China is at a critical stage, a large number of rural population enter cities, this part of the housing needs of people aggravated the situation of China's real estate market in short supply.
Currently, real estate prices continue to rise, it has become an obstacle to the healthy development of China's economy. On the one hand, relatively high yields make some enterprises invest the resources into real estate market, leading to more depression of the real economy; on the other hand, high real estate price continued to swallow up the wealth of the residents, with the rise of Housing price, people have to give more money to buy the house they need. This reduced the spending power of residents, which is not conducive to the policy of expanding the domestic demand made by our government
This article is divided into four parts:1.Introduction. This section describes the research background, purpose, this paper's theoretical and practical significance and current situation of investigating. Research background introduces the study on the background of the real estate industry in China after reform and opening up, outstanding issues and the state of real estate markets after the financial crisis. The objective of the study deals with the current realities of China's real estate market on social influence and prominent problems existing in the real estate market in China. Theoretical and practical significance of the research describes efforts and explorations made in theoretical research and provides a small number of decisions on Consumer demand for real estate. The current situation of investigating introduces the valuable investigations made by scholars on the problems of our real estate.2. Characteristics of real estate market and influencial factors analysis of supply and demand for real estate. Begins with a brief introduction to basic characteristics of the real estate market and this paper makes a more detailed and some theoretical analysis and discussion on factors affecting supply and demand in the real estate market.3. Analysis on supply and demand of residential real estate market in China, firstly, grasping the situation of supply and demand of housing market in China generally, secondly, making an analysis on housing, affordable housing. Finally, thinking about the demand for investment in real estate market.4. Recommendations for people in walks of life.
目前,房地产价格的不断走高使其已成为阻碍我国经济健康发展的因素之一。一方面,相对较高的收益率使我国一部分企业将资源投入房地产市场,导致我国实体经济越来越萧条；另一方而,过高的房地产价格不断吞噬着我国居民财富,房地产价格的上升,房产需求者拿出更多资金去购买。这使得居民的消费能力下降,不利于我国政府倡导的扩大内需政策的贯彻和执行。
本文共分为四个部分：一、引言。该部分介绍了论文的研究背景、研究目的、本文研究的理论意义与现实意义以及研究现状。研究背景介绍了我国房地产行业在改革开放后的发展情况,目前存在的突出问题及金融危机后房地产市场所处的状态：研究目的论述了目前我国房地产市场对社会的现实影响及我国房地产市场存在的突出问题等内容：本文研究的理论意义与现实意义阐述了在理论研究所做出的努力和探索及消费者对房产需求的决策上提供少量建议：研究现状部分主要概述了部分学者对我国房地产市场存在的问题做出的有价值的研究。二、房地产市场特征及影响房地产供求的因素分析。首先简要介绍房地产市场的基本特征然后对房地产市场供求影响因素进行较为详细论述,并对影响我国房地产市场的供求因素进行理论分析；三、我国住宅房地产市场的供求状况分析。先总体上对我国的住宅市场的供求状况进行把握,随后对商品房、经济适用房住宅进行分析；最后,对房地产市场中的投资需求进行了思考；四、对各行为主体的决策建议。
After ten years of development, China's real estate industry has changed from the distribution system before the reform into a system of market regulation. Institutional reform promotes the rapid development of China's real estate market, which plays an important role in China's economic development. China is the world's most populous country, Residents have a very strong demand for real estate commodities and hence the real estate will be a long period of seller's market, the current process of urbanization in China is at a critical stage, a large number of rural population enter cities, this part of the housing needs of people aggravated the situation of China's real estate market in short supply.
Currently, real estate prices continue to rise, it has become an obstacle to the healthy development of China's economy. On the one hand, relatively high yields make some enterprises invest the resources into real estate market, leading to more depression of the real economy; on the other hand, high real estate price continued to swallow up the wealth of the residents, with the rise of Housing price, people have to give more money to buy the house they need. This reduced the spending power of residents, which is not conducive to the policy of expanding the domestic demand made by our government
This article is divided into four parts:1.Introduction. This section describes the research background, purpose, this paper's theoretical and practical significance and current situation of investigating. Research background introduces the study on the background of the real estate industry in China after reform and opening up, outstanding issues and the state of real estate markets after the financial crisis. The objective of the study deals with the current realities of China's real estate market on social influence and prominent problems existing in the real estate market in China. Theoretical and practical significance of the research describes efforts and explorations made in theoretical research and provides a small number of decisions on Consumer demand for real estate. The current situation of investigating introduces the valuable investigations made by scholars on the problems of our real estate.2. Characteristics of real estate market and influencial factors analysis of supply and demand for real estate. Begins with a brief introduction to basic characteristics of the real estate market and this paper makes a more detailed and some theoretical analysis and discussion on factors affecting supply and demand in the real estate market.3. Analysis on supply and demand of residential real estate market in China, firstly, grasping the situation of supply and demand of housing market in China generally, secondly, making an analysis on housing, affordable housing. Finally, thinking about the demand for investment in real estate market.4. Recommendations for people in walks of life.
引文
[1]数据来自中国统计年鉴,2010年
[2]美国商务部银行调查报告。2007年
[1]季光伟.我国房地产泡沫及危害性分析[J].重庆邮电学院学报(社会科学版)2004年06期
[2]吴继伙.日本房地产周期的成因及对我国的启示[J].青海社会科学2004年06期
[3]徐玲玲.当前房地产泡沫争论之辨析[J].商场现代化2005年09期
[4]刘世轩.中国房地产泡沫经济问题[J].辽宁经济2003年08期
[5]刘洪玉.地价与房价的经济学分析.数量经济技术经济研究2003年07期
[6]郁文达.房地产周期和金融政策[J].中国房地产金融2003年09期
[7]沈国金.如何促进我国房地产企业的发展[J].统计与决策2005年15期
[8]李飞.心理预期在房价调控中的作用[J].房地产市场2008年09期
[9]何斌.国际金融危机下我国房产消费者心理预期探析[J].广西财经学院学报2009年04期.
[10]王炜.刚性需求避免房价暴跌,难以支撑高房价[N].人民日报2010-05-20
[11]吴晓黎.浅析房地产泡沫迷像[J].中外房地产导报2003年13期
[12]李丹.金融支持与房地产泡沫关系研究.[博士学位论文]成都 西南财经大学2008
[13]于嘉.房地产泡沫形成机制研究及我国房地产金融风险防范.[博士学位论文]上海复旦大学2009
[14]才元.中国房地产业波动对国民经济的影响研究.[博士学位论文]长春 吉林大学2007
[15]陈蕾.我国房地产市场泡沫研究[D].[博士学位论文]南昌 江西财经大学 2009
[16]张建军.市场分析.广州：暨南大学出版社,2004 51-60
[17]党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京：科学出版社,2009 43-57
[18]陈平,马君潞 国际金融.天津：南开大学出版社 2007 120-131
[19]汤炎非,杨青著.可行性研究与投资决策.武汉：武汉大学出版社,1998：5-7
[20]李竹成主编.房地产经济专业知识与实务.北京：团结出版社,2001
[21]潘蜀健主编.房地产项目投资、北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1999：101-108
[22]中国房地产估价师学会编.房地产估价理论与方法.北京：中国物价出版社,2001
[23]宋春红.论房地产开发项目可行性研究[J].基建优化,2006, (2)44-48.
[24]刘秋雁.房地产投资分析[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社,2003
[25]刘志平,王学孝.房地产开发可行性研究的思考[J].中国房地产,2001(9)21—30.
[26]多恩布什,费希尔,斯塔兹 宏观经济学(王志伟译)北京：中国财政经济出版社2009 209-231
[27]C.W.William. Vacancy, Search and Price in a Housing Market Matching mode [J] Journal of Political Economy.2006(5),1143-1151
[28]Theodore. The Duration of the Rental Housing Vacancies[J].Journal of the Urban Economics,2003, (29):99-110
[29]Bolton. Price Stability and Real Estate Market[J]. Economic journal,2005, (7):323-341
[30]Welfare. Muth. Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price[J]. Journal of Law and Economics,2007, (26):280-297
[31]D. S. James. Price Adjustment Process for Rent a Office Space[J]. Journal of Urban Economis.2008(20):77-89
[2]美国商务部银行调查报告。2007年
[1]季光伟.我国房地产泡沫及危害性分析[J].重庆邮电学院学报(社会科学版)2004年06期
[2]吴继伙.日本房地产周期的成因及对我国的启示[J].青海社会科学2004年06期
[3]徐玲玲.当前房地产泡沫争论之辨析[J].商场现代化2005年09期
[4]刘世轩.中国房地产泡沫经济问题[J].辽宁经济2003年08期
[5]刘洪玉.地价与房价的经济学分析.数量经济技术经济研究2003年07期
[6]郁文达.房地产周期和金融政策[J].中国房地产金融2003年09期
[7]沈国金.如何促进我国房地产企业的发展[J].统计与决策2005年15期
[8]李飞.心理预期在房价调控中的作用[J].房地产市场2008年09期
[9]何斌.国际金融危机下我国房产消费者心理预期探析[J].广西财经学院学报2009年04期.
[10]王炜.刚性需求避免房价暴跌,难以支撑高房价[N].人民日报2010-05-20
[11]吴晓黎.浅析房地产泡沫迷像[J].中外房地产导报2003年13期
[12]李丹.金融支持与房地产泡沫关系研究.[博士学位论文]成都 西南财经大学2008
[13]于嘉.房地产泡沫形成机制研究及我国房地产金融风险防范.[博士学位论文]上海复旦大学2009
[14]才元.中国房地产业波动对国民经济的影响研究.[博士学位论文]长春 吉林大学2007
[15]陈蕾.我国房地产市场泡沫研究[D].[博士学位论文]南昌 江西财经大学 2009
[16]张建军.市场分析.广州：暨南大学出版社,2004 51-60
[17]党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京：科学出版社,2009 43-57
[18]陈平,马君潞 国际金融.天津：南开大学出版社 2007 120-131
[19]汤炎非,杨青著.可行性研究与投资决策.武汉：武汉大学出版社,1998：5-7
[20]李竹成主编.房地产经济专业知识与实务.北京：团结出版社,2001
[21]潘蜀健主编.房地产项目投资、北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1999：101-108
[22]中国房地产估价师学会编.房地产估价理论与方法.北京：中国物价出版社,2001
[23]宋春红.论房地产开发项目可行性研究[J].基建优化,2006, (2)44-48.
[24]刘秋雁.房地产投资分析[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社,2003
[25]刘志平,王学孝.房地产开发可行性研究的思考[J].中国房地产,2001(9)21—30.
[26]多恩布什,费希尔,斯塔兹 宏观经济学(王志伟译)北京：中国财政经济出版社2009 209-231
[27]C.W.William. Vacancy, Search and Price in a Housing Market Matching mode [J] Journal of Political Economy.2006(5),1143-1151
[28]Theodore. The Duration of the Rental Housing Vacancies[J].Journal of the Urban Economics,2003, (29):99-110
[29]Bolton. Price Stability and Real Estate Market[J]. Economic journal,2005, (7):323-341
[30]Welfare. Muth. Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price[J]. Journal of Law and Economics,2007, (26):280-297
[31]D. S. James. Price Adjustment Process for Rent a Office Space[J]. Journal of Urban Economis.2008(20):77-89