上海房地产泡沫的成因及其防控策略研究
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摘要
自2000年开始,上海房地产业经历着新一轮的繁荣,房地产业增加值占GDP的比重从5.5%上升到2004年8.4%。与此同时,房地产价格不断上扬、投资性购房大量增加,房地产是否出现泡沫引起了广泛的关注。本文以房地产泡沫为轴线,针对上海房地产业的实际状况,对上海房地产泡沫展开了详细地研究。
本文首先对房地产泡沫的概念进行了界定,分析了房地产泡沫产生的原因。根据房地产泡沫的度量指标,把泡沫分为无泡沫、轻微泡沫、严重泡沫、极度泡沫四个状态。并结合日本、泰国等国家及我国海南和北海当年房地产泡沫所产生的破坏和影响,阐述了房地产泡沫的危害性。
其次,本文分析了房地产业对上海国民经济的重大影响,从定量和定性方面对上海房地产是否存在泡沫进行了分析,通过对各项指标的综合评测,判定上海房地产泡沫是存在的。根据上海的实际情况,总结了上海房地产泡沫的产生原因主要在于制度性因素、宏观经济因素以及微观经济因素三个方面。
最后,本文从不同角度提出了防控上海房地产泡沫的策略和措施:一是建立上海房地产泡沫预警体系;二是强调政府应该从法律、经济、行政、管理与引导等手段对上海房地产泡沫实施宏观调控;三是房地产企业和消费者等微观经济主体防控上海房地产泡沫的策略。
Beginning since 2000,the Shanghai real estate is newly undergoing already one makes prosper, the real estate trade increase is worth to seize that the specific gravity of GDP through 5.5% moves up to 8.4% in 2004.Meanwhile , real estate price continuously on is maked known and investment for quality buys house greats quantity ading, whether the real estate has ariseed the froth aroused the wide-ranging concern . The original is the axial line with the real estate froth , and is aimed at the actual state of Shanghai real estate trade , and unfolds and detailedly researcies to the Shanghai real estate froth .The original first of all adjust real estate froth and approximately attends school that the limit fixs, and analysed the reason that the real estate froth come into being. On the basis of the real estate froth magnaimity target, divided into the froth to froth four conditions not there is not the froth and slight froth, grave froth and exceedingly. Moreover such as Japan and Thailand, with the North Sea and Hainan, the damage and the effect that the real estate froth comes into being in those days, and elaborateed real estate froth perniciousnessSecondly, the original was analysed Shanghai the great effect to Shanghai national economy of real estate, and whether to be the froth to the Shanghai real estate at the respect of ration and quality has been underway the analysis, and to evaluate and test by means of the synthesis that adjust various target, and decides the Shanghai real estate froth. On the basis of the actual situation of Shanghai, sum up the
Shanghai real estate froth reason coming into being chiefly resting with system element, macroeconomics element along with microcosmic economy element three respects.Finally, the original has been propose to provide against accuseeing Shanghai real estate froth tactics and the step through the distinct angles: (1) establishing the Shanghai real estate froth early warming setup; (2) emphasize that the government should adjust Shanghai macroscopic regulation and control of real estate froth implementation through statue , economy , administration , administration together with boot and so on measure ; (3) microcosmic economy such as are real estate businesss with consumer and so on the main paries are provideed against accuseeing the Shanghai real estate froth tactics.
本文首先对房地产泡沫的概念进行了界定,分析了房地产泡沫产生的原因。根据房地产泡沫的度量指标,把泡沫分为无泡沫、轻微泡沫、严重泡沫、极度泡沫四个状态。并结合日本、泰国等国家及我国海南和北海当年房地产泡沫所产生的破坏和影响,阐述了房地产泡沫的危害性。
其次,本文分析了房地产业对上海国民经济的重大影响,从定量和定性方面对上海房地产是否存在泡沫进行了分析,通过对各项指标的综合评测,判定上海房地产泡沫是存在的。根据上海的实际情况,总结了上海房地产泡沫的产生原因主要在于制度性因素、宏观经济因素以及微观经济因素三个方面。
最后,本文从不同角度提出了防控上海房地产泡沫的策略和措施:一是建立上海房地产泡沫预警体系;二是强调政府应该从法律、经济、行政、管理与引导等手段对上海房地产泡沫实施宏观调控;三是房地产企业和消费者等微观经济主体防控上海房地产泡沫的策略。
Beginning since 2000,the Shanghai real estate is newly undergoing already one makes prosper, the real estate trade increase is worth to seize that the specific gravity of GDP through 5.5% moves up to 8.4% in 2004.Meanwhile , real estate price continuously on is maked known and investment for quality buys house greats quantity ading, whether the real estate has ariseed the froth aroused the wide-ranging concern . The original is the axial line with the real estate froth , and is aimed at the actual state of Shanghai real estate trade , and unfolds and detailedly researcies to the Shanghai real estate froth .The original first of all adjust real estate froth and approximately attends school that the limit fixs, and analysed the reason that the real estate froth come into being. On the basis of the real estate froth magnaimity target, divided into the froth to froth four conditions not there is not the froth and slight froth, grave froth and exceedingly. Moreover such as Japan and Thailand, with the North Sea and Hainan, the damage and the effect that the real estate froth comes into being in those days, and elaborateed real estate froth perniciousnessSecondly, the original was analysed Shanghai the great effect to Shanghai national economy of real estate, and whether to be the froth to the Shanghai real estate at the respect of ration and quality has been underway the analysis, and to evaluate and test by means of the synthesis that adjust various target, and decides the Shanghai real estate froth. On the basis of the actual situation of Shanghai, sum up the
Shanghai real estate froth reason coming into being chiefly resting with system element, macroeconomics element along with microcosmic economy element three respects.Finally, the original has been propose to provide against accuseeing Shanghai real estate froth tactics and the step through the distinct angles: (1) establishing the Shanghai real estate froth early warming setup; (2) emphasize that the government should adjust Shanghai macroscopic regulation and control of real estate froth implementation through statue , economy , administration , administration together with boot and so on measure ; (3) microcosmic economy such as are real estate businesss with consumer and so on the main paries are provideed against accuseeing the Shanghai real estate froth tactics.
引文
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