跨国石油公司社会责任与财务绩效研究
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摘要
2011年,全球对外直接投资(FDI)流量达到15086亿美元；中国吸引FDI流量1160亿美元,对外直接投资(ODI)601亿美元。~1由跨国公司主导的国际贸易和世界经济正在加快复苏,世界和中国不会忘跨国公司所做的巨大贡献,却也不能无视跨国公司的社会责任问题。2011年4月和6月,在美国墨西哥湾、中国渤海海域相继出现跨国石油公司的重大石油泄漏事故,把跨国石油公司推到了社会责任的风口浪尖。
本文首先确定了跨国石油公司社会责任与财务绩效的研究问题,设计了研究思路；然后在理论回顾和文献研究的基础上,进一步理清了研究思路；通过理论研究、指标选择、实证检验、博弈论研究、案例研究等方法对问题展开多角度研究,最后在上述研究基础上总结研究结论、提出对策建议。
论文的主要研究结论包括：
第一,文献研究结论：跨国公司对社会责任的认识已经从“该不该做”发展到“怎么做”,责任涉及的工作越来越细致具体。理论界构建的体系要在责任实践中实现,关键在于责任执行标准有据可依,“保证质量”既可以被商家用作广告,也可以被公司奉为信条,还可以被公众视之虚文,但如果建立了责任标准,就可以作为公司遵守的规则、行政执法的尺度、舆论监督的标的。因此社会责任标准的成熟是理论落到实务的关键所在,也是本文研究理论联系实际的重要环节。
第二,理论研究结论：在规模经济假设条件下,责任资本增加赋予产品以责任元素、提高产品的差异性、降低责任成本的租金率水平,有利于提高责任产品在同类产品中的替代弹性和消费者对于责任产品的偏好程度；在国际贸易假设条件下,国际贸易在促使责任资本规模扩大的同时,造成差异性责任产品替代弹性增强,会带来差异性责任产品种类的增加和市场规模的扩大。而且责任资本规模的扩大,有利于公司在国际贸易中建立并保持比较优势,这种比较优势来源于生产出新的差异性责任产品组合,而不是生产更多的现有产品组合。
第三,实证研究结论：(1)社会责任与财务绩效相关性明显。但社会责任不同层面之间、同一责任不同指标之间,与财务绩效的相关程度不同；(2)短期来看,(5-3)～(5-5)式三个回归方程33个变量系数中,有9个为正值、11个为负值、13个不显著。即社会责任对财务绩效正向、逆向作用同时存在,但逆向作用更明显；长期来看,(5-6)-(5-8)式三个回归方程33个变量系数中,有18个为正值、8个为负值、7个不显著。即社会责任对财务绩效正向、逆向作用同时存在,但正向作用更明显；(3)当社会责任水平较高时,社会责任对财务绩效的正向滞后两期影响更显著,社会责任是“因”；当社会责任水平较低时,财务绩效对社会责任的正向滞后两期影响更显著,社会责任是“果”。也就是说,跨国石油公司社会责任与财务绩效存在相互作用,社会责任与财务绩效的因果关系在上述条件下相互转化。
第四,博弈论研究结论：(1)在短期重复博弈条件下,只要博弈一方有一定概率是非理性的,即在博弈中放弃短期利益最大化,那么合作策略就是公司履行社会责任重复博弈的精炼贝叶斯均衡。非合作博弈次数总是固定为2；剩下的都是合作博弈。此时,公司选择“履行社会责任”可以获得更大的收益支付、提高财务绩效。满足这个条件,跨国石油公司社会责任就可以对财务绩效发挥正向作用；(2)在完全信息无限次重复博弈条件下,只要贴现率δ足够大,即投资收益率γ足够小,冷酷策略是公司履行社会责任无限次重复博弈的子博弈精炼纳什均衡。此时,任何背离均衡状态的投机行为都会对己方不利,遭到对方的严厉惩罚,即选择“不履行社会责任”会导致更少的收益支付和更低的财务绩效。满足这个条件,跨国石油公司社会责任就可以对财务绩效发挥正向作用；(3)在不完全信息重复博弈条件下,如果博弈双方都有可能是非理性的,只要博弈重复次数T足够大(没有必要是无限次的),博弈结果还是会达成合作均衡。也就是说,公司可以通过选择“履行社会责任”获得更多的收益支付、提高财务绩效。满足这个条件,跨国石油公司社会责任就可以对财务绩效发挥正向作用。
论文的主要创新点包括：
第一,实证检验方法。单纯的回归检验不能回答变量间因果关系问题,即究竟是社会责任影响了财务绩效,还是财务绩效影响了社会责任。为了解释这一问题,论文在实证检验中大胆尝试结构方程模型(Structrual Equation Model,简称SEM),达到了预期效果。
第二,指标选择依据。本文的社会责任指标选择依据的是联合国《2011年世界投资报告》中的社会责任指标分类,并结合多年来多社会责任指标的收集整理,综合考虑跨国石油公司社会责任实践特点,最终做出选择。
第三,博弈论研究角度。相关问题的博弈论研究以理论研究居多,本文的博弈论研究角度是针对实证检验中发现的实际问题,即社会责任对财务绩效的双重作用,根据问题建立模型,然后求解。目的是分析双重作用的作用机制和产生条件,对公司、政府等在社会责任实践中努力发挥责任的正向作用、避免逆向作用提出建议。
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows reached1,508.6billion dollars, among which, China had attracted FDI flows of116billion dollars, and invested over60.1billion dollars.2The international trade and the world economy which dominated by the multinational companies is accelerating the recovery, the world and China will not forget the tremendous contribution which the multinational companies have done, but will also not ignore the social responsibility issues which multinational companies have caused. In April and June2011, multinational oil companies had caused major accident of oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico U.S., and Bohai Sea China, the multinational oil companies have been pushed to the teeth of social responsible storm.
We first determined the research questions of social responsibility and financial performances of the multinational oil companies, designed the research train, further clarified which on the basis of the theoretical review and literature, and then made the multi-angle and multi-level research through theoretical research, indicator selection, the empirical test, the game research and case studie. Finally, we made conclusions and proposed suggestions on the basis of the study above.
The main conclusions include:
First, the conclusions of literatural study:the viewpoints of multinational companies on social responsibility had already developed from "should or not do" to "how to do", their practice is more and more detailed and specific. To the he theoretical system being realized in practice, the key factor is the responsiblity standard,"quality assurance" can be used as the advertise by the business, the faith of companies, also can be viewd as dead letters by the public. But if the standard is established, it can be used as the rule which companies comply with, the law of administrative enforcement, and the mark of public supervision. Therefore, the maturity of social responsibility standard is the key factor for execution of theory, also is the key link between theoretical and empirical research of our study.
Second, the conclusions of theoretical study:under the condition of scale economy, the increase of responsibility capital gives the product responsible element, improves the product's difference, reduces the rate of rent levels of responsibility cost, is beneficial to improve the substitutal elasticity of responsible products to other similar ones and consumers' preference; under the condition of international trade, international trade can prompt the scale of responsibility capital and the substitutal elasticity of responsible products, and then result into the increase of responsible products variety and expansion of market.scale. Beyond which, expansion of responsibility capital is helpful for companies to establish and maintain comparative advantage in the international trade, which derived from the production of new different responsible product mix, not from the production of existing product mix.
Third, the conclusions of empirical study:(1) the relevance of social responsibility and financial performance is significant. But the relevance between different levels of social responsibility and financial performance, the relevance between different indicators of the same level and financial performance is different;(2) for the short term, among33variable coefficients of three regression equations-formula (5-3) to (5-5),9ones are positive,11negative,13not significant. In orther words, the positive and negative effects of social responsibility to financial performance both exist, but the negtive effects are more obvious; for the long term, among33variable coefficients of three regression equations-formula (5-6) to (5-8),18ones are positive,8negative,7not significant. In orther words, the positive and negative effects of social responsibility to financial performance both exist, but the positive effects are more obvious;(3) under the condition of higher level of social responsibility, the positive effects which lag2phrases of social responsibility on financial performance are more obvious, social responsibility is "reason"; while under the condition of lower level of social responsibility, the positive effects which lag2phrases of financial performance on social responsibility are more obvious, social responsibility is "result". In other words, there is interaction between social responsibility and financial performance for the multinational oil companies, the causal relationship between which can transform into each other under the above conditions.
Fourth, the conclusions of game study:(1) Under the conditions of short-term repeated game, as long as one game player is non-rational for certain probability, that is, giving up maximizing short-term interests in the game, the cooperative strategy will be the refining Bayesian equilibrium for the game. The number of non-cooperative game is always fixed at2, the rest are cooperative game. At this point, company can get greater benefit paid and improve financial performance by choosing to fulfill their social responsibilities. If this condition was satisfied, the social responsibility of multinational oil companies can play a positive role in the financial performance;(2) Under the conditions of infinitely repeated games of complete information, as long as the discount rate δ is large enough, that is, the investment rate of return γ is small enough, ruthless strategy will be the refining Nash equilibrium for the game. At this point, every deviation from the equilibrium speculation will be adverse to one, and it will suffer opponent's severe punishment. In other words, company will get less benefit paid and lower financial performance by choosing not to fulfill their social responsibilities. If this condition was satisfied, the social responsibility of multinational oil companies can play a positive role in the financial performance;(3) Under the conditions of infinitely repeated games of incomplete information, if the game players are both non-rational, as long as the the number of repetitions is large enough (no need to be infinite), the outcome of game will still reach cooperative equilibrium. In other words, At this point, company can get greater benefit paid and improve financial performance by choosing to fulfill their social responsibilities. If this condition was satisfied, the social responsibility of multinational oil companies can play a positive role in the financial performance
The main innovations include:
First is the approach of empirical test. Regression testing alone can not answer the causal relationship between variables, that is, what social responsibility affect financial performance or financial performance affects social responsibility. In order to explain this problem, the empirical test made a bold try of Structrual Equation Model and achieved the desired goals.
Second is the base of indicators selection. The selection of social responsibility indicators was based on the indicators classification of United Nations'World Investment Report2011. Combined with years of much social responsibility indicators' collection, we made the final choice after integratedly considering the practice of social responsibility of multinational oil companies.
Third is the angle of game research. Previous related game research of this question is mostly theoretical research; our game research is based on the actual problem found in the empirical test, that is, the double effect of social responsibility on financial performances. According to the problem, we built model and then pursuited solving. The purpose is to analyze the mechanism and conditions of those double effects, and propose the suggestions to the companies and government to develop the positive effects and avoid negtive effects in the practice.
本文首先确定了跨国石油公司社会责任与财务绩效的研究问题,设计了研究思路；然后在理论回顾和文献研究的基础上,进一步理清了研究思路；通过理论研究、指标选择、实证检验、博弈论研究、案例研究等方法对问题展开多角度研究,最后在上述研究基础上总结研究结论、提出对策建议。
论文的主要研究结论包括：
第一,文献研究结论：跨国公司对社会责任的认识已经从“该不该做”发展到“怎么做”,责任涉及的工作越来越细致具体。理论界构建的体系要在责任实践中实现,关键在于责任执行标准有据可依,“保证质量”既可以被商家用作广告,也可以被公司奉为信条,还可以被公众视之虚文,但如果建立了责任标准,就可以作为公司遵守的规则、行政执法的尺度、舆论监督的标的。因此社会责任标准的成熟是理论落到实务的关键所在,也是本文研究理论联系实际的重要环节。
第二,理论研究结论：在规模经济假设条件下,责任资本增加赋予产品以责任元素、提高产品的差异性、降低责任成本的租金率水平,有利于提高责任产品在同类产品中的替代弹性和消费者对于责任产品的偏好程度；在国际贸易假设条件下,国际贸易在促使责任资本规模扩大的同时,造成差异性责任产品替代弹性增强,会带来差异性责任产品种类的增加和市场规模的扩大。而且责任资本规模的扩大,有利于公司在国际贸易中建立并保持比较优势,这种比较优势来源于生产出新的差异性责任产品组合,而不是生产更多的现有产品组合。
第三,实证研究结论：(1)社会责任与财务绩效相关性明显。但社会责任不同层面之间、同一责任不同指标之间,与财务绩效的相关程度不同；(2)短期来看,(5-3)～(5-5)式三个回归方程33个变量系数中,有9个为正值、11个为负值、13个不显著。即社会责任对财务绩效正向、逆向作用同时存在,但逆向作用更明显；长期来看,(5-6)-(5-8)式三个回归方程33个变量系数中,有18个为正值、8个为负值、7个不显著。即社会责任对财务绩效正向、逆向作用同时存在,但正向作用更明显；(3)当社会责任水平较高时,社会责任对财务绩效的正向滞后两期影响更显著,社会责任是“因”；当社会责任水平较低时,财务绩效对社会责任的正向滞后两期影响更显著,社会责任是“果”。也就是说,跨国石油公司社会责任与财务绩效存在相互作用,社会责任与财务绩效的因果关系在上述条件下相互转化。
第四,博弈论研究结论：(1)在短期重复博弈条件下,只要博弈一方有一定概率是非理性的,即在博弈中放弃短期利益最大化,那么合作策略就是公司履行社会责任重复博弈的精炼贝叶斯均衡。非合作博弈次数总是固定为2；剩下的都是合作博弈。此时,公司选择“履行社会责任”可以获得更大的收益支付、提高财务绩效。满足这个条件,跨国石油公司社会责任就可以对财务绩效发挥正向作用；(2)在完全信息无限次重复博弈条件下,只要贴现率δ足够大,即投资收益率γ足够小,冷酷策略是公司履行社会责任无限次重复博弈的子博弈精炼纳什均衡。此时,任何背离均衡状态的投机行为都会对己方不利,遭到对方的严厉惩罚,即选择“不履行社会责任”会导致更少的收益支付和更低的财务绩效。满足这个条件,跨国石油公司社会责任就可以对财务绩效发挥正向作用；(3)在不完全信息重复博弈条件下,如果博弈双方都有可能是非理性的,只要博弈重复次数T足够大(没有必要是无限次的),博弈结果还是会达成合作均衡。也就是说,公司可以通过选择“履行社会责任”获得更多的收益支付、提高财务绩效。满足这个条件,跨国石油公司社会责任就可以对财务绩效发挥正向作用。
论文的主要创新点包括：
第一,实证检验方法。单纯的回归检验不能回答变量间因果关系问题,即究竟是社会责任影响了财务绩效,还是财务绩效影响了社会责任。为了解释这一问题,论文在实证检验中大胆尝试结构方程模型(Structrual Equation Model,简称SEM),达到了预期效果。
第二,指标选择依据。本文的社会责任指标选择依据的是联合国《2011年世界投资报告》中的社会责任指标分类,并结合多年来多社会责任指标的收集整理,综合考虑跨国石油公司社会责任实践特点,最终做出选择。
第三,博弈论研究角度。相关问题的博弈论研究以理论研究居多,本文的博弈论研究角度是针对实证检验中发现的实际问题,即社会责任对财务绩效的双重作用,根据问题建立模型,然后求解。目的是分析双重作用的作用机制和产生条件,对公司、政府等在社会责任实践中努力发挥责任的正向作用、避免逆向作用提出建议。
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows reached1,508.6billion dollars, among which, China had attracted FDI flows of116billion dollars, and invested over60.1billion dollars.2The international trade and the world economy which dominated by the multinational companies is accelerating the recovery, the world and China will not forget the tremendous contribution which the multinational companies have done, but will also not ignore the social responsibility issues which multinational companies have caused. In April and June2011, multinational oil companies had caused major accident of oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico U.S., and Bohai Sea China, the multinational oil companies have been pushed to the teeth of social responsible storm.
We first determined the research questions of social responsibility and financial performances of the multinational oil companies, designed the research train, further clarified which on the basis of the theoretical review and literature, and then made the multi-angle and multi-level research through theoretical research, indicator selection, the empirical test, the game research and case studie. Finally, we made conclusions and proposed suggestions on the basis of the study above.
The main conclusions include:
First, the conclusions of literatural study:the viewpoints of multinational companies on social responsibility had already developed from "should or not do" to "how to do", their practice is more and more detailed and specific. To the he theoretical system being realized in practice, the key factor is the responsiblity standard,"quality assurance" can be used as the advertise by the business, the faith of companies, also can be viewd as dead letters by the public. But if the standard is established, it can be used as the rule which companies comply with, the law of administrative enforcement, and the mark of public supervision. Therefore, the maturity of social responsibility standard is the key factor for execution of theory, also is the key link between theoretical and empirical research of our study.
Second, the conclusions of theoretical study:under the condition of scale economy, the increase of responsibility capital gives the product responsible element, improves the product's difference, reduces the rate of rent levels of responsibility cost, is beneficial to improve the substitutal elasticity of responsible products to other similar ones and consumers' preference; under the condition of international trade, international trade can prompt the scale of responsibility capital and the substitutal elasticity of responsible products, and then result into the increase of responsible products variety and expansion of market.scale. Beyond which, expansion of responsibility capital is helpful for companies to establish and maintain comparative advantage in the international trade, which derived from the production of new different responsible product mix, not from the production of existing product mix.
Third, the conclusions of empirical study:(1) the relevance of social responsibility and financial performance is significant. But the relevance between different levels of social responsibility and financial performance, the relevance between different indicators of the same level and financial performance is different;(2) for the short term, among33variable coefficients of three regression equations-formula (5-3) to (5-5),9ones are positive,11negative,13not significant. In orther words, the positive and negative effects of social responsibility to financial performance both exist, but the negtive effects are more obvious; for the long term, among33variable coefficients of three regression equations-formula (5-6) to (5-8),18ones are positive,8negative,7not significant. In orther words, the positive and negative effects of social responsibility to financial performance both exist, but the positive effects are more obvious;(3) under the condition of higher level of social responsibility, the positive effects which lag2phrases of social responsibility on financial performance are more obvious, social responsibility is "reason"; while under the condition of lower level of social responsibility, the positive effects which lag2phrases of financial performance on social responsibility are more obvious, social responsibility is "result". In other words, there is interaction between social responsibility and financial performance for the multinational oil companies, the causal relationship between which can transform into each other under the above conditions.
Fourth, the conclusions of game study:(1) Under the conditions of short-term repeated game, as long as one game player is non-rational for certain probability, that is, giving up maximizing short-term interests in the game, the cooperative strategy will be the refining Bayesian equilibrium for the game. The number of non-cooperative game is always fixed at2, the rest are cooperative game. At this point, company can get greater benefit paid and improve financial performance by choosing to fulfill their social responsibilities. If this condition was satisfied, the social responsibility of multinational oil companies can play a positive role in the financial performance;(2) Under the conditions of infinitely repeated games of complete information, as long as the discount rate δ is large enough, that is, the investment rate of return γ is small enough, ruthless strategy will be the refining Nash equilibrium for the game. At this point, every deviation from the equilibrium speculation will be adverse to one, and it will suffer opponent's severe punishment. In other words, company will get less benefit paid and lower financial performance by choosing not to fulfill their social responsibilities. If this condition was satisfied, the social responsibility of multinational oil companies can play a positive role in the financial performance;(3) Under the conditions of infinitely repeated games of incomplete information, if the game players are both non-rational, as long as the the number of repetitions is large enough (no need to be infinite), the outcome of game will still reach cooperative equilibrium. In other words, At this point, company can get greater benefit paid and improve financial performance by choosing to fulfill their social responsibilities. If this condition was satisfied, the social responsibility of multinational oil companies can play a positive role in the financial performance
The main innovations include:
First is the approach of empirical test. Regression testing alone can not answer the causal relationship between variables, that is, what social responsibility affect financial performance or financial performance affects social responsibility. In order to explain this problem, the empirical test made a bold try of Structrual Equation Model and achieved the desired goals.
Second is the base of indicators selection. The selection of social responsibility indicators was based on the indicators classification of United Nations'World Investment Report2011. Combined with years of much social responsibility indicators' collection, we made the final choice after integratedly considering the practice of social responsibility of multinational oil companies.
Third is the angle of game research. Previous related game research of this question is mostly theoretical research; our game research is based on the actual problem found in the empirical test, that is, the double effect of social responsibility on financial performances. According to the problem, we built model and then pursuited solving. The purpose is to analyze the mechanism and conditions of those double effects, and propose the suggestions to the companies and government to develop the positive effects and avoid negtive effects in the practice.
引文
1 温家宝,2012年政府工作报告[R],中华人民共和国第十一届全国人民代表大会第五次会议,2012年3月5日。
2 Wen Jiabao, The government work report 2012 [R], the people's Republic of China to the Eleventh National People's Congress of the fifth meeting, March 5,2012.
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150 17个成员国分别是：德国、法国、荷兰、爱尔兰、芬兰、葡萄牙、西班牙：、意大利、希腊、奥地利、塞浦路斯、斯洛文尼亚、卢森堡、马耳他、比利时、斯洛伐克和爱沙尼亚。截至2010年1月,欧元区国家人口总数超过3亿8千万,这个数字还在不断增长。
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