国际直接投资技术溢出效应对中国经济增长的影响
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摘要
20世纪80年代以来,国际直接投资进入了持续快速增长的历史时期,并逐渐成为国际投资的主要方式,发展至今,经济学界已经基本就国际直接投资存在技术溢出效应达成了共识,可是技术溢出效应的发挥需要东道国具备相应的经济条件,如果东道国的经济发展水平及其决定的各种宏观经济指标可以吸收国际直接投资技术溢出效应,就会促进本国的经济增长,如果各项经济指标的发展水平不足,将抑制对技术溢出效应的吸收能力,无法达到促进经济增长的目的。
对中国而言,改革开放以来,参与国际直接投资活动日益频繁。一方面,在吸引外国直接投资方面取得重大成就,自1993年至今,一直都是发展中国家中吸引外国直接投资最多的国家；另一方面,对外直接投资却总体上增长缓慢,2005年之后才得到跨越式发展,但与吸引外国直接投资的规模相比仍有较大差距。值得深思的是,中国参与国际直接投资的发展历程正好是中国经济高速增长的黄金期,那么二者是否存在一定程度上的相关关系成为最直接的疑问,这也是本文研究的起点。
本文把国际直接投资技术溢出效应分为外国直接投资技术溢出效应和对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应,用理论分析和实证检验相结合的研究方法考察二者与经济增长之间的关系及影响机制。首先,通过改进以往理论、构建数理模型,得出结论认为国际直接投资可以通过技术溢出效应促进经济增长；其次,结合中国的具体情况,分别对外国直接投资和对外直接投资与中国经济增长之间的具体关系和作用机制进行实证检验。
对于外国直接投资技术溢出效应对中国经济增长的影响,本文首先通过协整分析,得出外国直接投资与我国的经济增长之间存在正相关关系。然后,在外国直接投资经济增长效应的背景下,考察人力资本和研发水平指标对技术溢出效应的吸收能力。检验结果显示：我国的中等人力资本可以吸收外国直接投资的技术溢出效应,促进经济增长,但是这种吸收能力并不显著;我国的高等人力资本指标也能吸收外国直接投资的技术溢出效应,对经济增长产生显著影响,而且高等人力资本指标对技术溢出效应的吸收能力远大于中等人力资本指标。代表研发水平的三个指标中,全国研发经费指标、国家财政科技支出指标都可以吸收技术溢出效应,只是吸收能力并不显著,但基础研究指标不能吸收技术溢出效应。另外,根据“门槛效应”模型的检验结果表明,我国中等、高等人力资本指标、研发经费投入指标都对外国直接投资技术溢出效应的吸收能力存在门槛,门槛水平分别是：0.0684、0.0176、0.0023。
对于对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应对中国经济增长的影响,首先,同样通过协整分析,得出结论认为对外直接投资与经济增长之间存在正相关关系。然后,考察研发水平、人力资本、金融发展水平、经济结构等4大指标对逆向技术溢出效应的吸收能力。检验结果显示：国内研发水平指标可以吸收我国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应,对经济增长产生显著影响：代表人力资本水平的科技活动人员指标和研发人员指标对逆向技术溢出效应都有较强吸收能力,对经济增长产生显著影响,高等学校在校生指标也可以吸收逆向溢出效应,但作用并不显著,而且研发人员指标的吸收能力强于科技活动人员指标和高等学校在校生指标；代表金融发展水平的金融效率和金融深度指标对逆向技术溢出效应都有一定的吸收能力,但这种能力并不显著；代表经济结构水平的高科技产业和工业发展水平指标都对逆向技术溢出效应有较强的吸收能力,对经济增长产生显著影响。综合比较得出,对逆向技术溢出效应吸收能力由大到小依次为经济结构水平、人力资本水平、国内研发水平、金融发展水平,其中,工业发展水平的吸收能力最强,金融效率指标的吸收能力最弱,这也正好符合我国工业化水平不断提高、金融市场发展滞后的现状。
最后,结合我国吸引外国直接投资和对外直接投资的现状,以及各指标技术吸收能力的发展水平,提出相应的政策建议。
Since the1980s, the international direct investment has entered a sustained and rapid growth period, and gradually become the main way of international investment, up to now, the economics profession has reached a basic consensus that the foreign direct investment has technology spillover effect, but whether the technology spillover effect works depending on the host country's economic conditions, if the host countiy's economic development level and its macroeconomic indicators have ability to absorb the international direct investment's technology spillover effect, the international direct investment will promote the country's economic growth, if these indicators have no absorptive ability, the international direct investment won't help the host country to reach the purpose of promoting economic growth.
For China, since China's reform and opening up, participating in the activities of the international direct investment is becoming more and more frequent. On the one hand, China has gotten great achievements in attracting foreign direct investment and has been attracting most foreign direct investment in developing countries since1993; on the other hand, generally,outward direct investment grew slowly since1978, and it got rapid development after2005, but compares to the scale of attracting foreign direct investment, there is still a large gap.Interestingly,the development of China's participation in international direct investment are just golden period of China's rapid economic growth, so whether there is a kind of correlation between them become the most directive question, this is also the starting research point of this paper.
This paper divides the technology spillover effect of international direct investment into technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment and the reverse technology spillover effect of outward direct investment, studies the relationship and influence mechanism between the international direct investment and economic growth with the theory analysis and the empirical research method. First of all, through improving the old theory and constructing mathematical model found that the international direct investment promotes economic growth through technology spillover effect; Secondly, combining with China's specific conditions, studies the relationship and action mechanism between foreign direct investment and China's economic growth by empirical test, then studies the relationship and action mechanism between outward direct investment and China's economic growth by empirical test.
For technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment's influence on China's economic growth. Firstly,this paper found that there is a kind of positive correlation between foreign direct investment and China's economic growth through the cointegration analysis. Secondly, under the background of economic growth effects of foreign direct investment, studies the human capital indicator and R&D level indicator's absorptive ability of technology spillover effect. Test results show that the medium human capital can absorb the technology spillover effect and promote economic growth, but this kind of absorptive capacity is not significant; show that the higher level human capital also absorb the technology spillover effect and have a significant impact on economic growth, and the absorptive capacity of technology spillover effect of higher human capital indicator is greater than medium human capital indicator. In these three indicators which represents R&D level, the national R&D spending indicator, national finance technology spending indicator can absorb the technology spillover effect, but absorptive ability is not significant, the basic research spending indicator can't absorb the technology spillover effect. In addition, according to the "Threshold effecf'model test results show that there is a threshold between the technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment and the technology absorptive capacity of the medium and higher human capital indicators, national R&D spending indicator.The threshold level of the above three indicators respectively is:0.0684,0.0176,0.0023.
For reverse technology spillover effect of outward direct investment's influence on China's economic growth. First of all, the cointegration analysis results show that there is a positive correlation between outward direct investment and economic growth. Then, studies R&D level indicator, human capital indicator, financial development level indicator and economic structure indicator's absorption of reverse technology spillover effect. Test results show that domestic R&D level indicator can absorb the reverse technology spillover effect of outward direct investment in China and have a significant impact on economic growth; the personnel of science and technology indicator and R&D staff indicator which represent the human capital level have strong ability to absorb reverse technology spillover effect and have a significant impact on economic growth.College students indicator also can absorb the reverse technology spillover effect, but its ability is not significant, generally,the R&D staff indicator's absorptive ability is stronger than the personnel of science and technology indicator and college students indicator.As the representative of the financial development level,the financial efficiency indicator and financial depth indicator also have certain absorptive ability of reverse technology spillover effect, but the ability is not significant. As the representative of the economic structure,the high-tech industry indicator and the industrial development level indicator have the strong absorptive ability of the reverse technological spillover effect, and have a significant impact on economic growth. Comprehensive comparison, the absorptive capacity of reverse technology spillover effect from strong to weak in turn is economic structure, human capital, domestic R&D level and financial development level.Among these indicators, the industrial development level has the strongest absorptive capacity,the absorptive capacity of financial efficiency indicator is the weakest, this results also happen to conform to our country's present situation that the industrialization level enhances unceasingly and the financial market development lags behind.
Finally, combining with the present situation of foreign direct investment and outward direct investment and the absorptive capacity of these indicators, the paper gives some policy recommendations.
对中国而言,改革开放以来,参与国际直接投资活动日益频繁。一方面,在吸引外国直接投资方面取得重大成就,自1993年至今,一直都是发展中国家中吸引外国直接投资最多的国家；另一方面,对外直接投资却总体上增长缓慢,2005年之后才得到跨越式发展,但与吸引外国直接投资的规模相比仍有较大差距。值得深思的是,中国参与国际直接投资的发展历程正好是中国经济高速增长的黄金期,那么二者是否存在一定程度上的相关关系成为最直接的疑问,这也是本文研究的起点。
本文把国际直接投资技术溢出效应分为外国直接投资技术溢出效应和对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应,用理论分析和实证检验相结合的研究方法考察二者与经济增长之间的关系及影响机制。首先,通过改进以往理论、构建数理模型,得出结论认为国际直接投资可以通过技术溢出效应促进经济增长；其次,结合中国的具体情况,分别对外国直接投资和对外直接投资与中国经济增长之间的具体关系和作用机制进行实证检验。
对于外国直接投资技术溢出效应对中国经济增长的影响,本文首先通过协整分析,得出外国直接投资与我国的经济增长之间存在正相关关系。然后,在外国直接投资经济增长效应的背景下,考察人力资本和研发水平指标对技术溢出效应的吸收能力。检验结果显示：我国的中等人力资本可以吸收外国直接投资的技术溢出效应,促进经济增长,但是这种吸收能力并不显著;我国的高等人力资本指标也能吸收外国直接投资的技术溢出效应,对经济增长产生显著影响,而且高等人力资本指标对技术溢出效应的吸收能力远大于中等人力资本指标。代表研发水平的三个指标中,全国研发经费指标、国家财政科技支出指标都可以吸收技术溢出效应,只是吸收能力并不显著,但基础研究指标不能吸收技术溢出效应。另外,根据“门槛效应”模型的检验结果表明,我国中等、高等人力资本指标、研发经费投入指标都对外国直接投资技术溢出效应的吸收能力存在门槛,门槛水平分别是：0.0684、0.0176、0.0023。
对于对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应对中国经济增长的影响,首先,同样通过协整分析,得出结论认为对外直接投资与经济增长之间存在正相关关系。然后,考察研发水平、人力资本、金融发展水平、经济结构等4大指标对逆向技术溢出效应的吸收能力。检验结果显示：国内研发水平指标可以吸收我国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应,对经济增长产生显著影响：代表人力资本水平的科技活动人员指标和研发人员指标对逆向技术溢出效应都有较强吸收能力,对经济增长产生显著影响,高等学校在校生指标也可以吸收逆向溢出效应,但作用并不显著,而且研发人员指标的吸收能力强于科技活动人员指标和高等学校在校生指标；代表金融发展水平的金融效率和金融深度指标对逆向技术溢出效应都有一定的吸收能力,但这种能力并不显著；代表经济结构水平的高科技产业和工业发展水平指标都对逆向技术溢出效应有较强的吸收能力,对经济增长产生显著影响。综合比较得出,对逆向技术溢出效应吸收能力由大到小依次为经济结构水平、人力资本水平、国内研发水平、金融发展水平,其中,工业发展水平的吸收能力最强,金融效率指标的吸收能力最弱,这也正好符合我国工业化水平不断提高、金融市场发展滞后的现状。
最后,结合我国吸引外国直接投资和对外直接投资的现状,以及各指标技术吸收能力的发展水平,提出相应的政策建议。
Since the1980s, the international direct investment has entered a sustained and rapid growth period, and gradually become the main way of international investment, up to now, the economics profession has reached a basic consensus that the foreign direct investment has technology spillover effect, but whether the technology spillover effect works depending on the host country's economic conditions, if the host countiy's economic development level and its macroeconomic indicators have ability to absorb the international direct investment's technology spillover effect, the international direct investment will promote the country's economic growth, if these indicators have no absorptive ability, the international direct investment won't help the host country to reach the purpose of promoting economic growth.
For China, since China's reform and opening up, participating in the activities of the international direct investment is becoming more and more frequent. On the one hand, China has gotten great achievements in attracting foreign direct investment and has been attracting most foreign direct investment in developing countries since1993; on the other hand, generally,outward direct investment grew slowly since1978, and it got rapid development after2005, but compares to the scale of attracting foreign direct investment, there is still a large gap.Interestingly,the development of China's participation in international direct investment are just golden period of China's rapid economic growth, so whether there is a kind of correlation between them become the most directive question, this is also the starting research point of this paper.
This paper divides the technology spillover effect of international direct investment into technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment and the reverse technology spillover effect of outward direct investment, studies the relationship and influence mechanism between the international direct investment and economic growth with the theory analysis and the empirical research method. First of all, through improving the old theory and constructing mathematical model found that the international direct investment promotes economic growth through technology spillover effect; Secondly, combining with China's specific conditions, studies the relationship and action mechanism between foreign direct investment and China's economic growth by empirical test, then studies the relationship and action mechanism between outward direct investment and China's economic growth by empirical test.
For technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment's influence on China's economic growth. Firstly,this paper found that there is a kind of positive correlation between foreign direct investment and China's economic growth through the cointegration analysis. Secondly, under the background of economic growth effects of foreign direct investment, studies the human capital indicator and R&D level indicator's absorptive ability of technology spillover effect. Test results show that the medium human capital can absorb the technology spillover effect and promote economic growth, but this kind of absorptive capacity is not significant; show that the higher level human capital also absorb the technology spillover effect and have a significant impact on economic growth, and the absorptive capacity of technology spillover effect of higher human capital indicator is greater than medium human capital indicator. In these three indicators which represents R&D level, the national R&D spending indicator, national finance technology spending indicator can absorb the technology spillover effect, but absorptive ability is not significant, the basic research spending indicator can't absorb the technology spillover effect. In addition, according to the "Threshold effecf'model test results show that there is a threshold between the technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment and the technology absorptive capacity of the medium and higher human capital indicators, national R&D spending indicator.The threshold level of the above three indicators respectively is:0.0684,0.0176,0.0023.
For reverse technology spillover effect of outward direct investment's influence on China's economic growth. First of all, the cointegration analysis results show that there is a positive correlation between outward direct investment and economic growth. Then, studies R&D level indicator, human capital indicator, financial development level indicator and economic structure indicator's absorption of reverse technology spillover effect. Test results show that domestic R&D level indicator can absorb the reverse technology spillover effect of outward direct investment in China and have a significant impact on economic growth; the personnel of science and technology indicator and R&D staff indicator which represent the human capital level have strong ability to absorb reverse technology spillover effect and have a significant impact on economic growth.College students indicator also can absorb the reverse technology spillover effect, but its ability is not significant, generally,the R&D staff indicator's absorptive ability is stronger than the personnel of science and technology indicator and college students indicator.As the representative of the financial development level,the financial efficiency indicator and financial depth indicator also have certain absorptive ability of reverse technology spillover effect, but the ability is not significant. As the representative of the economic structure,the high-tech industry indicator and the industrial development level indicator have the strong absorptive ability of the reverse technological spillover effect, and have a significant impact on economic growth. Comprehensive comparison, the absorptive capacity of reverse technology spillover effect from strong to weak in turn is economic structure, human capital, domestic R&D level and financial development level.Among these indicators, the industrial development level has the strongest absorptive capacity,the absorptive capacity of financial efficiency indicator is the weakest, this results also happen to conform to our country's present situation that the industrialization level enhances unceasingly and the financial market development lags behind.
Finally, combining with the present situation of foreign direct investment and outward direct investment and the absorptive capacity of these indicators, the paper gives some policy recommendations.
引文
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