变压器维修决策的研究
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摘要
随着电力需求的迅速增长，变压器长期以来所采用的计划维修体制逐渐暴露出维修过剩、维修不足和维修成本不断攀升等问题；另一方面，近年来随着计算机技术和传感技术的快速发展，使得先进的状态维修技术得到了大力推广，受到广大研究人员的关注。本文重点研究了变压器状态维修问题，包括变压器维修方式选择问题、变压器状态评估问题、变压器故障诊断问题，最后设计并开发了变电设备维修管理系统。
具体研究内容如下：
提出了应用基于目标规划的模糊层次分析法来评价和选择变压器的维修方式，对于决策者给出的模糊判断，本文采用梯形模糊数进行建模。针对传统模糊层次分析法的缺陷，提出了目标规划的精确权重确定方法，避免了对模糊权重排序的问题。给出了变压器维修方式选择的具体应用过程，并与标准层次分析法进行了对比，说明了所提方法的正确性与合理性。
分析并建立了变压器状态评估的指标体系，给出了指标归一化的方法，完善了指标的隶属度函数，引入灰色关联度处理缺失指标，减小指标缺失可能引起的状态评估的精确度。提出了OWA（Ordered Weighted Averaging）算子与模糊评判相结合的变压器状态综合评估模型。为了充分考虑指标权值和指标隶属度对评估结果的影响，引入一种基于OWA算子的模糊聚合转换函数以融合多个不同重要信息源的属性信息；模型分为两层，在第二层子指标采用模糊聚合法得到第一层主指标的模糊隶属度，第一层主指标采用OWA算子聚合最终的变压器综合状态评估，实例分析表明这种方法可以便捷的实现变压器状态评估，结论合理客观，接近于变压器运行的真实状态。
提出了改进的免疫模糊聚类算法的变压器故障诊断的新方法。算法将已知故障类型样本作为初始抗体，对初始抗体群进行了混沌扰动，综合考虑了灰色关联度和模糊聚类目标函数两种因素作为衡量抗体抗原的亲和度优劣的评价标准，采用了混沌克隆和柯西变异算子相结合；仿真分析表明所提算法不仅有效的克服了模糊C均值聚类算法易陷入局部最小值的缺点，又能有效的抑制免疫进化过程中产生的“退化“现象，提高了后期的局部搜索能力，加快了收敛速度，在聚类的同时还考虑了故障样本的灰色关联度，进一步提高了故障分类的正确性。设计并开发了变电设备维修管理系统。详述了系统的需求分析、总体设计、基于MVC的详细设计与系统实现的关键技术等。
With the rapid growth in power demand, many problems arise gradually as thescheduled maintenance system has been adopted for Transformer for a long time,including maintenance excess, deficiencies and cost increment. On the other hand,with the rapid development of computer technology and sensing technology in recentyears, the advanced condition-based maintenance technology has been promotedgreatly, which was paid attention to by many researchers. This dissertation focuses onthe condition-based maintenance problems of the Transformer, especially on theapplication of transformer, including maintenance strategies selection of Transformer,condition assessment and fault diagnosis of transformer, and finally the design and thedevelopment of maintenance management system for the power transformationequipment. Details are described as follows:
A systematic study of the optional maintenance strategies of the Transformer isconducted and a set of general factors which should be considered in the maintenancestrategies is established. A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) based on thegoal programming is proposed in view of the defects of the traditional Fuzzy AnalyticHierarchy Process (FAHP), and the specific application process of this method in thetransformer maintenance strategies selection is described. In addition, a comparisonwith the standard Analytic Hierarchy Process is made to clarify the validity of themethod proposed in this dissertation.
The criteria system and criteria normalization method for the conditionassessment of Transformer is developed and membership function of the criteria isestablished. The establishment of Expert Weight is decided jointly by subjectiveweight and objective weight which is based on entropy weight thoughts, while thecriteria weight is gained by the weight which is derived from the standard AnalyticHierarchy Process and the Expert Weight. A Comprehensive Condition AssessmentModel of Transformer based on OWA(Ordered Weighted Averaging) operator andfuzzy assessment is proposed and divided into two layers, fuzzy polymerization isadopted for the second layer sub-criteria to get the fuzzy membership of the first layermain criteria, while OWA operator polymerized with the final comprehensivecondition assessment of the transformer is adopted for the main criteriaof the first layer. In order to fully consider the impact of criteria weight and membership on thecondition assessment result, a fuzzy polymerization conversion function based onOWA operator is introduced in the model, so as to integrate the attribute informationfrom various important information sources. Case analysis indicates that the conditionassessment of transformer can be carried out by this method; the reasonable andobjective conclusion is close to the true condition of transformer.
The Chaos Immune Evolutionary Fuzzy Clustering algorithm which is based onGrey Relational Degree is proposed and applied to the fault diagnosis of transformer.Compared with Fuzzy C-Means algorithm and Fuzzy C-Means algorithm which isbased on immune, Fuzzy Clustering algorithm has faster convergence speed andhigher accuracy of fault classification. Chaotic disturbance for initial antibody groupis made by the model, two factors including Grey Relational Degree and FuzzyClustering Objective Function are taken into full consideration as an assessmentstandard of affinity degree of antibody and antigen, adaptive cauchy mutationoperator and chaotic clone operator are adopted, so as to reduce the impact of initialvalue on Fuzzy Clustering algorithm, improve the local search capability at laterstages and accelerate the convergence speed. What’s more, it can also effectively stopthe "degeneration" phenomenon generated in the immune process. The experimentalanalysis indicates that the Fuzzy Clustering algorithm can improve the accuracy offault classification.
Power transformation equipment maintenance management system is designedand developed. Analysis of requirements, general design and detailed design based onMVC and key technology for implementation is described in detail.
In this Dissertation, there are thirty-seven figures, fifty-four tables, and onehundred and seventy-six reference documents.
具体研究内容如下：
提出了应用基于目标规划的模糊层次分析法来评价和选择变压器的维修方式，对于决策者给出的模糊判断，本文采用梯形模糊数进行建模。针对传统模糊层次分析法的缺陷，提出了目标规划的精确权重确定方法，避免了对模糊权重排序的问题。给出了变压器维修方式选择的具体应用过程，并与标准层次分析法进行了对比，说明了所提方法的正确性与合理性。
分析并建立了变压器状态评估的指标体系，给出了指标归一化的方法，完善了指标的隶属度函数，引入灰色关联度处理缺失指标，减小指标缺失可能引起的状态评估的精确度。提出了OWA（Ordered Weighted Averaging）算子与模糊评判相结合的变压器状态综合评估模型。为了充分考虑指标权值和指标隶属度对评估结果的影响，引入一种基于OWA算子的模糊聚合转换函数以融合多个不同重要信息源的属性信息；模型分为两层，在第二层子指标采用模糊聚合法得到第一层主指标的模糊隶属度，第一层主指标采用OWA算子聚合最终的变压器综合状态评估，实例分析表明这种方法可以便捷的实现变压器状态评估，结论合理客观，接近于变压器运行的真实状态。
提出了改进的免疫模糊聚类算法的变压器故障诊断的新方法。算法将已知故障类型样本作为初始抗体，对初始抗体群进行了混沌扰动，综合考虑了灰色关联度和模糊聚类目标函数两种因素作为衡量抗体抗原的亲和度优劣的评价标准，采用了混沌克隆和柯西变异算子相结合；仿真分析表明所提算法不仅有效的克服了模糊C均值聚类算法易陷入局部最小值的缺点，又能有效的抑制免疫进化过程中产生的“退化“现象，提高了后期的局部搜索能力，加快了收敛速度，在聚类的同时还考虑了故障样本的灰色关联度，进一步提高了故障分类的正确性。设计并开发了变电设备维修管理系统。详述了系统的需求分析、总体设计、基于MVC的详细设计与系统实现的关键技术等。
With the rapid growth in power demand, many problems arise gradually as thescheduled maintenance system has been adopted for Transformer for a long time,including maintenance excess, deficiencies and cost increment. On the other hand,with the rapid development of computer technology and sensing technology in recentyears, the advanced condition-based maintenance technology has been promotedgreatly, which was paid attention to by many researchers. This dissertation focuses onthe condition-based maintenance problems of the Transformer, especially on theapplication of transformer, including maintenance strategies selection of Transformer,condition assessment and fault diagnosis of transformer, and finally the design and thedevelopment of maintenance management system for the power transformationequipment. Details are described as follows:
A systematic study of the optional maintenance strategies of the Transformer isconducted and a set of general factors which should be considered in the maintenancestrategies is established. A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) based on thegoal programming is proposed in view of the defects of the traditional Fuzzy AnalyticHierarchy Process (FAHP), and the specific application process of this method in thetransformer maintenance strategies selection is described. In addition, a comparisonwith the standard Analytic Hierarchy Process is made to clarify the validity of themethod proposed in this dissertation.
The criteria system and criteria normalization method for the conditionassessment of Transformer is developed and membership function of the criteria isestablished. The establishment of Expert Weight is decided jointly by subjectiveweight and objective weight which is based on entropy weight thoughts, while thecriteria weight is gained by the weight which is derived from the standard AnalyticHierarchy Process and the Expert Weight. A Comprehensive Condition AssessmentModel of Transformer based on OWA(Ordered Weighted Averaging) operator andfuzzy assessment is proposed and divided into two layers, fuzzy polymerization isadopted for the second layer sub-criteria to get the fuzzy membership of the first layermain criteria, while OWA operator polymerized with the final comprehensivecondition assessment of the transformer is adopted for the main criteriaof the first layer. In order to fully consider the impact of criteria weight and membership on thecondition assessment result, a fuzzy polymerization conversion function based onOWA operator is introduced in the model, so as to integrate the attribute informationfrom various important information sources. Case analysis indicates that the conditionassessment of transformer can be carried out by this method; the reasonable andobjective conclusion is close to the true condition of transformer.
The Chaos Immune Evolutionary Fuzzy Clustering algorithm which is based onGrey Relational Degree is proposed and applied to the fault diagnosis of transformer.Compared with Fuzzy C-Means algorithm and Fuzzy C-Means algorithm which isbased on immune, Fuzzy Clustering algorithm has faster convergence speed andhigher accuracy of fault classification. Chaotic disturbance for initial antibody groupis made by the model, two factors including Grey Relational Degree and FuzzyClustering Objective Function are taken into full consideration as an assessmentstandard of affinity degree of antibody and antigen, adaptive cauchy mutationoperator and chaotic clone operator are adopted, so as to reduce the impact of initialvalue on Fuzzy Clustering algorithm, improve the local search capability at laterstages and accelerate the convergence speed. What’s more, it can also effectively stopthe "degeneration" phenomenon generated in the immune process. The experimentalanalysis indicates that the Fuzzy Clustering algorithm can improve the accuracy offault classification.
Power transformation equipment maintenance management system is designedand developed. Analysis of requirements, general design and detailed design based onMVC and key technology for implementation is described in detail.
In this Dissertation, there are thirty-seven figures, fifty-four tables, and onehundred and seventy-six reference documents.
引文
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