基于模糊神经网络的短期电力负荷预测的研究
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摘要
短期负荷预测是电力系统安全经济运行的前提,在电力系统发展日趋复杂的今天,传统的负荷预测技术越来越难以满足电力部门负荷预测精度要求,应用智能算法进行电力系统的短期负荷预测,提高负荷预测的精度和稳定性,具有十分重要的意义。在分析了电力系统负荷预测的意义和方法之后,本文在研究模糊推理和神经网络的基础上,提出了构造模糊神经网络模型的新方法,将模糊推理融入到了BP网络中,并且用遗传算法来训练网络参数,直到误差趋于一稳定值,然后用优化的权值进行BP算法,实现短期负荷预测,仿真实验给果表明该方法加快网络学习速度,并能提高负荷预测精度。
Short-term load forecasting is the precondition of economic and secure operation of power system. With the power system becoming more and more complex, it's demonstrated that those traditional load-forecasting technologies can't satisfy the requirement of load forecasting which becomes more and more strict. So using intelligent technologies to improve the forecasting accuracy and stability of the load forecasting of electric power system is a new character of the short-term load forecasting field of electric power system. After analyzed the meaning and method of power system load forecasting, based on the analysis of fuzzy inference and neural network biology characteristic, the paper presents a new method of constructing Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN), which merges the fuzzy inference into BP network. In this method, GA is used to optimize connection weights of forward-back neural network until the learning error has tended to stability. Then we use BP algorithm with optimized weights to finish short-term load forecasting process. The results of the emulation experimental show that this method can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the predicting precision.
Short-term load forecasting is the precondition of economic and secure operation of power system. With the power system becoming more and more complex, it's demonstrated that those traditional load-forecasting technologies can't satisfy the requirement of load forecasting which becomes more and more strict. So using intelligent technologies to improve the forecasting accuracy and stability of the load forecasting of electric power system is a new character of the short-term load forecasting field of electric power system. After analyzed the meaning and method of power system load forecasting, based on the analysis of fuzzy inference and neural network biology characteristic, the paper presents a new method of constructing Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN), which merges the fuzzy inference into BP network. In this method, GA is used to optimize connection weights of forward-back neural network until the learning error has tended to stability. Then we use BP algorithm with optimized weights to finish short-term load forecasting process. The results of the emulation experimental show that this method can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the predicting precision.
引文
[1] 蒋宗礼,人工神经网络导论,北京:高等教育出版社,2001
[2] 周春光 梁艳春,计算智能,吉林大学出版社,长春,2001.
[3] 赵希正,中国电力负荷特性分析与预测,北京:中国电力出版社,2002
[4] 刘秀玉,刘峤等,一种基于模糊逻辑和神经网络的电力负荷预测方法,上海大学学报(自然科学版),2001,7(1):37~41
[5] 牛东晓,电力负荷预测技术及其应用,北京:中国电力出版社,1998
[6] 梁海峰,涂光渝,唐红卫,遗传神经网络在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用,电网技术,2001,25(1):49-53
[7] 刘耀年,张文生,张玉霞等 基于模糊聚类理论的电力系统短期负荷预测的方法,东北电力学院学报,2000,20(3):17-21
[8] 张铃,浅谈智能计算,计算机与信息技术,Vol. 95 No. 8 2001
[9] 周勇. 电力系统短期负荷预测的研究:[硕士毕业论文]. 西安:西安理工大学, 2004
[10] 石万清. 电力系统短期负荷预测技术的研究与实现:[硕士毕业论文]. 合肥:合肥工业大学, 2003
[11] 刘晨晖,电力系统负荷预报理论和方法,哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社
[12] Mohammad Tamimi, et al. Short term electric load forecasting via fuzzy neural collaboration [J]. Electric Power System Research,2000,56,243-248
[13] Tomonobu Senjyu,et al.Next Day Peak Load Forecasting Using Neural Networks with Adaptive Learning Algorithm Based On Similarity, Electric Machines and Power System, 2000,28:613-624
[14] 杨志欣. 基于模糊神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测:[硕士毕业论文]. 广东:中山大学, 2003
[15] 高山,张凌浩等,节假日短期负荷预测的一种实用算法,江苏电机工程,2002,21(2):19-2
[16] 韩力群,人工神经网络理论、设计及应用,北京:化学工业出版社,2002
[17] 赵福成. 基于人工神经网络的短期负荷预测:[硕士毕业论文]. 保定:华北电力大学, 2001
[18] Kennedy J, Eberhart R C. Particle swarm optimization[A].In: Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. Neural Networks[C]. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE Press,1995, 1942-1948.
[19] 牛东晓,曹树华,赵磊,张文.电力负荷预测技术及其应用.北京:中国电力出版社,1998
[20] 陶小虎,黄民翔,一种基于模糊规则和神经网络的负荷预测方法,电力系统及其自动化学报,2000,12(5):37-41
[21] 荣辉,张济世,马信山,前馈神经网络的模糊 PID 算法及其在电力系统负荷预测中的应用,电工技术学报 ,1998,13(4):43-46
[22] 牛东晓,陈志业,邢棉等,遗传神经网络优化预测方法研究及应用,华北电力大学学报,2001,28(1):1-5
[23] 邓聚龙.灰色预测与决策[M],武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990
[24] 赵海丹,余得伟.模糊专家系统用于短期负荷预测修正的初步探讨.华东电力,2000(5)
[25] KoskoB Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems. Prentic-Hall,1991
[26] Archer K P Wang S Fuzzy set Representation of Neural Network Classification. IEEE Trans.1991
[27] 赵琳.一种基于人工神经网络的短期负荷预测技术。山西电力技术,1998
[28] 王民量,张伯明,夏清,电力负荷短期预测的共轭梯度 ANN 方法 电力系统自动化,1999, 23(1):34-36
[29] 何述东,瞿坦,黄心汉,电力负荷短期预测的改进神经网络方法 电力系统自动化 1997,21(11):13-15
[30] D.Srinivasan, et al. Practical implementation of a hybrid fuzzy neural network for one-day-ahead load forecasting IEE Pro-Gener.Transm Disstrib, 145(6).1998
[31] Kwang-HoKim et al. Short-Term Load Forecasting for Special Days in Anomalous Load Conditions Using Neural Networks and Fuzzy Inference Method, IEEE Transaction on power system, 2000, 15(2):559-565
[32] Shi.Y,Eberhart R. A modified particle swarm opt-imizer In:IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence.1998:69～73
[33] 张宝平. 基于遗传 BP 神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测:[博士毕业论文]. 西安:西安理工大学, 2003
[34] 王家红,黄阿强,熊信良.基于小波网络的短期负荷预测方法.电力自动化设备,2003, 23 (3):11~13
[35] 易丹,沈安文,神经网络式电力负荷预测的混合算法,长沙电力学院学报(自然科学版),2001,16(2):47-49
[36] 严华,吴捷,马志强等,模糊集理论在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用,电力系统自动化,2000,24(11):67-72
[37] 王立新,自适应模糊系统与控制-设计与稳定性分析,北京:国防工业出版社,1995
[38] 甘文泉.用自适应神经元网络进行电力负荷短期预测,电网技术,1997,3
[39] 焦李成.神经网络系统理论.西安电子科技大学出版社,1995.
[40] 张智星,孙春在等,神经-模糊和软计算,西安:西安交通大学出版社,2000
[41] 徐秉铮,张百灵,韦岗.神经网络理论与应用.广州:华南理工大学出版社,1994
[42] 雷英杰,张善文.Matlab 遗传算法工具箱及应用.西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2005
[43] 徐丽娜,神经网络控制.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,1999
[44] 粟塔山,最优化计算原理与算法程序设计.湖南:国防科技大学,2001
[45] 肖国泉,王春,张福伟等.电力负荷预测.中国电力出版社,2001
[2] 周春光 梁艳春,计算智能,吉林大学出版社,长春,2001.
[3] 赵希正,中国电力负荷特性分析与预测,北京:中国电力出版社,2002
[4] 刘秀玉,刘峤等,一种基于模糊逻辑和神经网络的电力负荷预测方法,上海大学学报(自然科学版),2001,7(1):37~41
[5] 牛东晓,电力负荷预测技术及其应用,北京:中国电力出版社,1998
[6] 梁海峰,涂光渝,唐红卫,遗传神经网络在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用,电网技术,2001,25(1):49-53
[7] 刘耀年,张文生,张玉霞等 基于模糊聚类理论的电力系统短期负荷预测的方法,东北电力学院学报,2000,20(3):17-21
[8] 张铃,浅谈智能计算,计算机与信息技术,Vol. 95 No. 8 2001
[9] 周勇. 电力系统短期负荷预测的研究:[硕士毕业论文]. 西安:西安理工大学, 2004
[10] 石万清. 电力系统短期负荷预测技术的研究与实现:[硕士毕业论文]. 合肥:合肥工业大学, 2003
[11] 刘晨晖,电力系统负荷预报理论和方法,哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社
[12] Mohammad Tamimi, et al. Short term electric load forecasting via fuzzy neural collaboration [J]. Electric Power System Research,2000,56,243-248
[13] Tomonobu Senjyu,et al.Next Day Peak Load Forecasting Using Neural Networks with Adaptive Learning Algorithm Based On Similarity, Electric Machines and Power System, 2000,28:613-624
[14] 杨志欣. 基于模糊神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测:[硕士毕业论文]. 广东:中山大学, 2003
[15] 高山,张凌浩等,节假日短期负荷预测的一种实用算法,江苏电机工程,2002,21(2):19-2
[16] 韩力群,人工神经网络理论、设计及应用,北京:化学工业出版社,2002
[17] 赵福成. 基于人工神经网络的短期负荷预测:[硕士毕业论文]. 保定:华北电力大学, 2001
[18] Kennedy J, Eberhart R C. Particle swarm optimization[A].In: Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. Neural Networks[C]. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE Press,1995, 1942-1948.
[19] 牛东晓,曹树华,赵磊,张文.电力负荷预测技术及其应用.北京:中国电力出版社,1998
[20] 陶小虎,黄民翔,一种基于模糊规则和神经网络的负荷预测方法,电力系统及其自动化学报,2000,12(5):37-41
[21] 荣辉,张济世,马信山,前馈神经网络的模糊 PID 算法及其在电力系统负荷预测中的应用,电工技术学报 ,1998,13(4):43-46
[22] 牛东晓,陈志业,邢棉等,遗传神经网络优化预测方法研究及应用,华北电力大学学报,2001,28(1):1-5
[23] 邓聚龙.灰色预测与决策[M],武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990
[24] 赵海丹,余得伟.模糊专家系统用于短期负荷预测修正的初步探讨.华东电力,2000(5)
[25] KoskoB Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems. Prentic-Hall,1991
[26] Archer K P Wang S Fuzzy set Representation of Neural Network Classification. IEEE Trans.1991
[27] 赵琳.一种基于人工神经网络的短期负荷预测技术。山西电力技术,1998
[28] 王民量,张伯明,夏清,电力负荷短期预测的共轭梯度 ANN 方法 电力系统自动化,1999, 23(1):34-36
[29] 何述东,瞿坦,黄心汉,电力负荷短期预测的改进神经网络方法 电力系统自动化 1997,21(11):13-15
[30] D.Srinivasan, et al. Practical implementation of a hybrid fuzzy neural network for one-day-ahead load forecasting IEE Pro-Gener.Transm Disstrib, 145(6).1998
[31] Kwang-HoKim et al. Short-Term Load Forecasting for Special Days in Anomalous Load Conditions Using Neural Networks and Fuzzy Inference Method, IEEE Transaction on power system, 2000, 15(2):559-565
[32] Shi.Y,Eberhart R. A modified particle swarm opt-imizer In:IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence.1998:69～73
[33] 张宝平. 基于遗传 BP 神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测:[博士毕业论文]. 西安:西安理工大学, 2003
[34] 王家红,黄阿强,熊信良.基于小波网络的短期负荷预测方法.电力自动化设备,2003, 23 (3):11~13
[35] 易丹,沈安文,神经网络式电力负荷预测的混合算法,长沙电力学院学报(自然科学版),2001,16(2):47-49
[36] 严华,吴捷,马志强等,模糊集理论在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用,电力系统自动化,2000,24(11):67-72
[37] 王立新,自适应模糊系统与控制-设计与稳定性分析,北京:国防工业出版社,1995
[38] 甘文泉.用自适应神经元网络进行电力负荷短期预测,电网技术,1997,3
[39] 焦李成.神经网络系统理论.西安电子科技大学出版社,1995.
[40] 张智星,孙春在等,神经-模糊和软计算,西安:西安交通大学出版社,2000
[41] 徐秉铮,张百灵,韦岗.神经网络理论与应用.广州:华南理工大学出版社,1994
[42] 雷英杰,张善文.Matlab 遗传算法工具箱及应用.西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2005
[43] 徐丽娜,神经网络控制.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,1999
[44] 粟塔山,最优化计算原理与算法程序设计.湖南:国防科技大学,2001
[45] 肖国泉,王春,张福伟等.电力负荷预测.中国电力出版社,2001