中国经济可持续性研究
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摘要
近20多年，中国经济持续以年均9％的增长率高速增长，2012年GDP为51.9万亿元，跃升至世界第二位。但中国的经济增长是以环境恶化和资源的巨大消耗为代价的。在经济增长的同时，人口总量持续增长，工业化、城镇化快速推进，能源消费总量、污染物产生量将继续增加，经济增长的环境、能源约束日趋强化。例如：2013年1月中国中东部地区持续的灰霾天气，空气中有毒物质含量超过安全标准20多倍，对人们的生活、工作、身体健康带来严重影响。
解决经济发展带来的环境、能源约束问题是实现经济可持续发展的关键。为此政府必须结合中国现阶段的特点采取相应的政策来解决环境、能源问题，以实现经济可持续发展。能源、环境政策对解决能源、环境问题，实现经济可持续发展会带来什么影响呢？本文在绿色GDP社会核算矩阵的基础上构建CGE模型，模型中建立了生产活动与不达标污染物排放的关系，引入了环境反馈机制。并利用CGE模型模拟能源、环境及科研政策对节能减排及经济发展可持续性的影响。
基于模拟结果,本文认为：排污税和能源税是节能减排的有效途径，但会对宏观经济产生紧缩作用。由于资源税的影响范围较广，它对宏观经济造成较大的负面影响。征收污染排放税和能源税对不同产业的紧缩程度不一致，能源消耗量大、污染排放量比较大的行业产值受到的负面影响较大，节能减排效果明显，反之亦然。
污染治理和技术专利投入补贴给宏观经济带来积极的影响。在节能减排效果方面，技术投入补贴效果要明显好于污染治理补贴，单位产量能源消耗和污染物不达标排放明显减少。补贴政策给污染排放量大、技术专利投入多的行业带来较大好处，加大了产业结构优化的难度。
能源效率提高明显降低了单位产量的能耗量和污染物排放量，整个宏观经济受到积极的影响；但是能源效率回弹效应使得源消耗总量上升，不达标污染物排放总量增加。能源效率提升不利于产业结构的优化。
研究结果表明：单纯地实施某一项政策很难实现环境、经济和能源的协调发展，达到经济可持续发展的目的。必须充分利用各自的优势，实行组合政策，
在节能减排的同时将对经济增长的影响尽量减小。例如税收政策在能源消耗和不达标污染排放总量控制上效果明显，技术专利补贴政策和能源效率的提高能够减少单位产量的能源消耗量和不达标污染物排放量。此外，还必须配套其它措施才能在实现节能减排的同时将对经济的影响降到最低，增强经济发展的可持续性。
The Chinese economy has been growing over9%per annum on average forthe last20years. Chinese GDP reached51.9trillion Yuan in2012, makingChina the world’s second largest economy. But Chinese economic growthoften relies on extensive mode of development, causing huge waste of naturalresources and severe damages to the country’s environment.
China’s environment deteriorates rapidly, and the pressures on environmentare increasing: the growing burden of population, rapid industrialization andurbanization, spiraling energy consumption. The end result will be rampantproduction of pollutants and the environmental and energy constraints oneconomic growth will be keenly felt. One recent example is the smog thatcovered north and east China for days in January,2013. The toxic substancesin air were20times more than safety standards, severely affected people’sliving, working and health.
To solve the environmental and energy constraints on economic growth isthe key to sustainable development. To achieve sustainable development, thegovernment needs to adopt appropriate environment and energy policies inview of China’s current economic status. What kind of impact of theseenvironment and energy policies will have on solving environment and energyproblems, and on sustainable economic development?
This dissertation constructs a CGE model based on green GDP socialbudgeting matrix. The model introduces into it environmental feedbackmechanism and establishes relationship between the production activities andthe discharge of sub-standard pollutants. And I analyze the impact ofincreasing taxes on pollutants discharge, subsidies on pollution treatment,levy of energy consumption ad valorem taxes, increasing energy efficiencyand subsidy of technology research on macro economy, energy efficiency andindustrial structure, in addition, the policy impact on achieving balanced development of economy, environment and natural resources andsustainable economic development is also analyzed.
Based on numerical simulation, I show that both pollution tax and energytax will have contraction effect on macro economy, and natural resources tax,due to its wider scope of taxation, will have a larger negative effect oneconomy. But taxing energy usage and pollution discharge is an effective wayto save energy and reduce pollution. The contraction effects of energy andpollution taxes will be varying on different industries. Larger impact will beon energy-intensive, pollution-heavy industries, while impact on industrieswhich use less energy and discharge little pollution will be minimal.
Increasing pollution treatment investment and subsidies on relatedtechnological patents will bring positive effects throughout the economy. Interms of effect on power-saving and pollution reduction, the impact of the twokinds of subsidy differs. When total output increases, energy consumption andtotal amount of pollution discharge increase relatively less, and unit energyconsumption and pollution discharge of output decreases noticeably, showingvery positive effect. On the other hand, subsidy on pollution treatment andrelated patent investment accrues more benefit to heavy polluters and biginvestors on technological patents, hindering industrial structure optimization.
Improved energy efficiency will lead to energy rebound effect. Improvedenergy efficiency lowers energy consumption and pollution discharge of unitoutput, bestowing positive impact on economy; but total energy consumptionand pollution discharge increase. So improved energy efficiency isdetrimental to industrial structure optimization. The industries consuming themost energy will benefit most, and their outputs increase most.
My research shows it is difficult to achieve balanced development ofenvironment, economy and energy, and sustainable development by simplyadopting a single policy. It is necessary to take advantages of each policy andadopt a mixture of policies, so as to achieve the target of energy saving andpollution reduction while minimizing the negative impacts on economicdevelopment. For instance, tax policy is very effective for controlling energy
consumption and pollution discharge, and subsidies on energy efficiencyand related technological investment will reduce energy consumption andpollution discharge of unit output. Besides, other complementary measures areneeded to reduce energy consumption and pollution, and minimize thenegative impact on economy at the same time, promoting the sustainabledevelopment of economy.
解决经济发展带来的环境、能源约束问题是实现经济可持续发展的关键。为此政府必须结合中国现阶段的特点采取相应的政策来解决环境、能源问题，以实现经济可持续发展。能源、环境政策对解决能源、环境问题，实现经济可持续发展会带来什么影响呢？本文在绿色GDP社会核算矩阵的基础上构建CGE模型，模型中建立了生产活动与不达标污染物排放的关系，引入了环境反馈机制。并利用CGE模型模拟能源、环境及科研政策对节能减排及经济发展可持续性的影响。
基于模拟结果,本文认为：排污税和能源税是节能减排的有效途径，但会对宏观经济产生紧缩作用。由于资源税的影响范围较广，它对宏观经济造成较大的负面影响。征收污染排放税和能源税对不同产业的紧缩程度不一致，能源消耗量大、污染排放量比较大的行业产值受到的负面影响较大，节能减排效果明显，反之亦然。
污染治理和技术专利投入补贴给宏观经济带来积极的影响。在节能减排效果方面，技术投入补贴效果要明显好于污染治理补贴，单位产量能源消耗和污染物不达标排放明显减少。补贴政策给污染排放量大、技术专利投入多的行业带来较大好处，加大了产业结构优化的难度。
能源效率提高明显降低了单位产量的能耗量和污染物排放量，整个宏观经济受到积极的影响；但是能源效率回弹效应使得源消耗总量上升，不达标污染物排放总量增加。能源效率提升不利于产业结构的优化。
研究结果表明：单纯地实施某一项政策很难实现环境、经济和能源的协调发展，达到经济可持续发展的目的。必须充分利用各自的优势，实行组合政策，
在节能减排的同时将对经济增长的影响尽量减小。例如税收政策在能源消耗和不达标污染排放总量控制上效果明显，技术专利补贴政策和能源效率的提高能够减少单位产量的能源消耗量和不达标污染物排放量。此外，还必须配套其它措施才能在实现节能减排的同时将对经济的影响降到最低，增强经济发展的可持续性。
The Chinese economy has been growing over9%per annum on average forthe last20years. Chinese GDP reached51.9trillion Yuan in2012, makingChina the world’s second largest economy. But Chinese economic growthoften relies on extensive mode of development, causing huge waste of naturalresources and severe damages to the country’s environment.
China’s environment deteriorates rapidly, and the pressures on environmentare increasing: the growing burden of population, rapid industrialization andurbanization, spiraling energy consumption. The end result will be rampantproduction of pollutants and the environmental and energy constraints oneconomic growth will be keenly felt. One recent example is the smog thatcovered north and east China for days in January,2013. The toxic substancesin air were20times more than safety standards, severely affected people’sliving, working and health.
To solve the environmental and energy constraints on economic growth isthe key to sustainable development. To achieve sustainable development, thegovernment needs to adopt appropriate environment and energy policies inview of China’s current economic status. What kind of impact of theseenvironment and energy policies will have on solving environment and energyproblems, and on sustainable economic development?
This dissertation constructs a CGE model based on green GDP socialbudgeting matrix. The model introduces into it environmental feedbackmechanism and establishes relationship between the production activities andthe discharge of sub-standard pollutants. And I analyze the impact ofincreasing taxes on pollutants discharge, subsidies on pollution treatment,levy of energy consumption ad valorem taxes, increasing energy efficiencyand subsidy of technology research on macro economy, energy efficiency andindustrial structure, in addition, the policy impact on achieving balanced development of economy, environment and natural resources andsustainable economic development is also analyzed.
Based on numerical simulation, I show that both pollution tax and energytax will have contraction effect on macro economy, and natural resources tax,due to its wider scope of taxation, will have a larger negative effect oneconomy. But taxing energy usage and pollution discharge is an effective wayto save energy and reduce pollution. The contraction effects of energy andpollution taxes will be varying on different industries. Larger impact will beon energy-intensive, pollution-heavy industries, while impact on industrieswhich use less energy and discharge little pollution will be minimal.
Increasing pollution treatment investment and subsidies on relatedtechnological patents will bring positive effects throughout the economy. Interms of effect on power-saving and pollution reduction, the impact of the twokinds of subsidy differs. When total output increases, energy consumption andtotal amount of pollution discharge increase relatively less, and unit energyconsumption and pollution discharge of output decreases noticeably, showingvery positive effect. On the other hand, subsidy on pollution treatment andrelated patent investment accrues more benefit to heavy polluters and biginvestors on technological patents, hindering industrial structure optimization.
Improved energy efficiency will lead to energy rebound effect. Improvedenergy efficiency lowers energy consumption and pollution discharge of unitoutput, bestowing positive impact on economy; but total energy consumptionand pollution discharge increase. So improved energy efficiency isdetrimental to industrial structure optimization. The industries consuming themost energy will benefit most, and their outputs increase most.
My research shows it is difficult to achieve balanced development ofenvironment, economy and energy, and sustainable development by simplyadopting a single policy. It is necessary to take advantages of each policy andadopt a mixture of policies, so as to achieve the target of energy saving andpollution reduction while minimizing the negative impacts on economicdevelopment. For instance, tax policy is very effective for controlling energy
consumption and pollution discharge, and subsidies on energy efficiencyand related technological investment will reduce energy consumption andpollution discharge of unit output. Besides, other complementary measures areneeded to reduce energy consumption and pollution, and minimize thenegative impact on economy at the same time, promoting the sustainabledevelopment of economy.
引文
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