中国城市化与经济增长的统计研究
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摘要
城市化是伴随着经济社会发展的一种空间聚集现象,一个国家或地区的城市化水平与经济发展程度密切相关。经济增长促进城市化,城市化反过来也对经济、社会的发展产生不可小觑的影响。处于体制转型期的中国,城市化快速推进已成社会经济发展的一个重要组成部分,作为世界上最大规模的人口乡城迁移,必将对本国乃至全球发展产生深远影响。城市化水平迅速提高的同时,城市资源、环境、交通等问题也日益突出,影响到城市和整个社会的可持续发展。
经济增长中技术创新的作用日显重要,内生增长理论随之兴起,构建国家及区域创新系统、提升创新能力,受到人们的普遍关注。国家或地区的技术创新能力取决于多方面的因素,包括制度环境、研发投入、人力资本等,城市化是其中一个不容忽视的重要因素,因为城市是技术创新产生及扩散的“温床”和“天然实验室”。改革开放以来,伴随着经济增长与城市化进程,我国城乡收入差距不断扩大,成为影响整体收入分配的重要因素,且与构建和谐社会、建设全面小康的目标不相适应。如此背景下,将技术创新作为中介因素,考察城市化与经济增长的关联机制及具体表现;以城乡收入差距为切入点,探讨经济增长与城市化的影响效应,并直接开展城市化与经济增长协调度的综合评价,对于深刻理解、认识城市化与经济增长的关联性,合理推进城市化,保持中国经济既快又好地发展,增强城市化与经济增长之间的协调性,显得必要而紧迫。
为考察城市化与经济增长之间的关联机制及影响效应,评价两者之间的协调性,本文把规范研究与实证研究、定性分析与定量分析相结合。对城市化、技术创新与经济增长,经济增长、城市化与城乡收入差距之间理论机制的探讨采用规范研究的方法,对理论机制的检验和实际效应的测算则采用实证研究的方法。在实证研究中体现出明显的定量特征,采用多种统计与计量方法来开展分析。统计方法主要包括相关分析、回归分析、主成分分析、聚类分析、空间统计及统计分组等;时序数据的动态计量分析方法主要包括协整模型及检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数及预测方差分解等;对于面板数据则利用固定效应模型、随机效应模型,通过一般最小二乘法、工具变量法(Ⅳ)、矩估计法(GMM)等多种方法进行估计。另外,借鉴重力模型的形式提出创新空间扩散模型,通过模拟分析来判别创新的空间扩散是属于等级扩散还是传染扩散;利用三类模型对全国31个省、巿、自治区及全国整体上城市化与经济增长的协调度进行评价。
本文的研究主要包括以下几部分的内容:第一部分阐明选题的背景及理论、实际意义,回顾相关内容的研究动态,开展文献综述,提出研究视角、方法、目标及技术路径,给出本研究的难点、创新及不足。
第二部分利用时序及省级横截面数据,对改革开放以来经济增长、城市化的时空特征进行统计描述、对比分析,发现经济总量不断扩大、经济结构逐步调整的同时,经济增长的周期特征明显、地区之间的差距日益拉大;我国城市化已进入中期快速提升的阶段,城市空间聚集明显,城市化水平具有空间自相关性,城市化的区域间差异不断扩大,区域内部差异有所缩小,城市化逐步体现出大城市优先发展的规律,整体上处于集中型阶段,大城市出现明显的郊区化现象。对城市化与经济增长相关性的初步考察发现,城市化与经济增长之间的确存在密切的相关性。
第三部分在综合已有研究成果的基础上,首先,从产业结构变动、就业结构转换及制造业、服务业聚集三个方面,阐述经济增长促进城市化的机制;利用新古典城市增长模型、新经济地理城市化模型及新兴古典城市化模型来说明经济增长促进城市化的思想,并比较了三类模型的异同。其次,从聚集效应与扩散效应两方面概括城市化推动经济增长的机制,从物质资本驱动、投入——产出联系、要素迁移驱动及技术创新驱动几方面阐述城市化经济增长的模型。从城市化与经济增长的互动理论与模型分析中发现,聚集经济是两者相互作用的基础。最后,把技术创新作为城市化推动经济增长的一个重要中介因素,城乡收入差距作为经济增长与城市化的一个显著影响效应,提出本文的研究框架。
第四部分简述技术创新的概念及其对于经济增长的重要性后,重点探讨了城市化与技术创新的关联机制,并利用城市、省级数据对两者之间的关联性进行实证检验,发现城市有利于技术创新,城市化水平与人均技术创新产出高度相关;进一步把城市体系与创新扩散联系起来,提出两者的空间关联机理,以长三角城市体系为例利用相关分析与模拟分析对两者之间的空间关联性进行实证检验;在综合技术创新促进经济增长宏观、微观机制与模型的基础上,将城市化、技术创新作为自变量纳入经济增长模型,根据省级面板数据利用多种估计方法对城市化、技术创新促进经济增长的实际效应进行计量分析,发现我国城市化与技术创新对经济增长具有正向促进作用,但地区间的效应差异明显。
第五部分首先对城乡收入差距的历史轨迹及现实状况进行统计考察,从导致城乡收入差距持续扩大的原因分析中发现,城市偏向政策是造成城乡收入差距扩大的根本性原因;进而探讨经济增长、城市化促进城乡收入差距的作用机制,提出城市偏向影响城乡收入差距的理论模型,并以全国的时间序列、省级横截面及面板数据描述经济增长与城乡收入差距的关系,利用时序数据开展城市化、城市偏向与城乡收入差距关联的动态分析,以省级面板数据对经济增长、城市化及城市偏向影响城乡收入差距的具体效应进行混合模型、固定效应及随机效应模型的估计。
第六部分在概述城市化与经济增长之间几种关联模式及关于我国城市化与经济增长关系的争论后,对我国城市化是否滞后于工业化及近几年城市化速度是否过快的问题开展再考察;进而利用时序数据,直接对城市化与经济增长之间的关系进行动态计量分析;最后利用灰色关联模型、熵变方程及耦合协调度模型对城市化与经济增长之间的协调性进行综合评价,得到全国及各省城市化与经济增长之间的协调度。
第七部分对转型期中国城市化与经济增长之间的关联及影响效应进行总结,从主要结论中得到推进城市化进程,保持经济持续快速增长,提高两者协调性的政策启示,提出未来需进一步探讨的方向。
将技术创新作为城市化促进经济增长的中介因素、城乡收入差距作为经济增长与城市化的影响效应,对转型期我国城市化与经济增长的关系开展多角度的理论与实证分析,主要得到以下结论:(1)城市化水平与经济发展水平之间存在着密切的相关性,经济增长促进城市化,城市化反过来推动经济增长,两者互促共进,内在基础是聚集经济。(2)城市在专业化和多样性、人力资本积累、形成知识和信息交流网络及提高交易效率等方面的优势,使得城市成为创新和发明的集中地,城市化有利于技术创新及其扩散。(3)城市体系具有等级分布特征,创新扩散具有从中心城市向中小城市等级扩散的效应,两者之间具有较强的空间关联性;(4)城市化有利于技术创新,而创新在经济增长中的作用日益突出,故在城市化推动经济增长的作用机制中技术创新成为一个重要的中介因素;(5)伴随着我国经济增长与城市化进程,城乡收入差距不断扩大,其中一个重要的原因是由于众多政策都具有明显的城市偏向特征,城市偏向对城乡收入差距的作用效应明显;(6)总体上我国城市化仍滞后于工业化,近几年的城市化速度并未过快。(7)转型期我国城市化与经济增长总体上较为协调,但也存在一定的不协调性且地区间差异明显。
为促使城市化与经济增长之间良性互动机制的形成,上述结论对于中国城市化与经济增长的未来之路,不无以下政策启示:(1)随着经济发展,城市化水平大幅提高是必然趋势;而提高城市化水平,必须以经济增长为基础;(2)积极推进城市化不失为提高技术创新能力的一个有效途径,应鼓励各级城市发展,特别是提高中心城市的功能等级应作为提高区域创新能力的一个重要手段;(3)加强城市的交通、信息网络建设,为创新扩散提供良好渠道,有利于加速技术创新的扩散;(4)贯彻落实“西部大开发”及“中部崛起”战略,不断缩小区域差距;缩小不断扩大的城乡差距,必须彻底扭转政府在价格、投资及财政支出等方面城市偏向政策,实现城乡的平等发展;相应地建立起城市支持农村的机制,发挥城市辐射效应,带动乡村发展;(5)继续推进城市化的同时,一方面要注重转变城市增长方式,另一方面要防止出现城市偏向及城乡差距引致的过度城市化现象。
本文在借鉴众多学者已有研究成果的基础上,力求在以下几个方面有所创新:(1)研究视角的创新。将技术创新作为一个中介因素,对城市化与经济增长关联效应进行理论探讨和实证分析,给出城市化与技术创新、城市体系与创新扩散之间的关联机理及实际证据;将城乡收入差距作为经济增长与城市化的影响效应,认为众多影响城乡收入差距的因素都具有“城市偏向”特征,对“城市偏向”与城乡收入差距之间的理论联系与实际效应进行模型推导及计量分析。(2)研究方法的创新。利用城市化水平的空间自相关性来反映城市空间聚集现象;大部分实证都利用时序数据、截面数据及面板数据分析了时空两方面的特征;开展城市化、技术创新与经济增长以及城市化、城市偏向与城乡收入差距的实证分析时,除采用最小二乘法进行估计外,还考察工具变量法、矩估计法的估计效果。(3)研究思路的创新。为反映城市化与经济增长之间的直接联系,采用时序数据对两者的关联进行动态计量分析,利用三种模型从不同侧面对两者之间的协调度开展综合评价,思路上有所创新。
本文的研究虽在一定程度上达到预期研究目标,但也存在遗憾与不足。未能从数理形式上推导出同时考虑城市化与技术创新因素的经济增长理论模型;对技术创新溢出机理及实际溢出效应没有具体阐述及实际测算;对城市化促进经济增长的人力资本、结构变动等中介因素的具体效应有待进一步考察。这些都将是未来进一步学习和研究的主要方向。
Urbanization is the phenomena of spatial agglomeration with the development of economy and society. The level of urbanization is correlative with the extent of economy in a country or region. Economic growth facilitates urbanization and urbanization also accelerates economic and social development. As an important part of development, Chinese urbanization will obviously affect the future of its own and global development during transforming period. The problems about resource, environment and traffic are outstanding. They affect the sustainable development of the city and society.
Technology innovateion shows more important pole in economic growth. People pay more attentions to inhance the capacity of innovation. Technology innovation capacity is detemined by a lot of factors such as institution, R&D, human capital and so on. Among these factors, urbanization is important because city is the "nursery" and "natural lab" of innovation's emergence and duffusion. During the course of ecomomic growth and urbanization, urban-rural income inequality is widened and obviously affects the whole income distribution, the aim of harmonious and well-off society. So it is essential to review the correlative machenism between urbanization and economic growth through technology innovation. It is also necessitous to discuss the effects of economic growth and urbanization to urban-rural income inequality, and evaluate the harmony between economic growth and urbanization.
In order to achieve the above-mentioned aims, normative methods are combined with positive methods qualitative analysis is integrated with quantitative analysis. Normative methods are used to study the theoretic machenism among urbanization, technology innovation, economic growth and urban-rural income inequality. Positive methods are used to prove the theoretic machenism and analyze the actual effects. Many statistical and econometrical methods are applied in positive research. Statistical methods include correlative analysis, regression, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, spatial statistics and grouping. Dynamic econometrical methods include cointergration model, error correction model, Granger caulity test, impuls response function and variance decomposition. Fixed-effect model and random-effect model are used to estmate panel data by general OLS, instrument variable and GMM. Simulation analysis is applied to distinguish innovation spatial duffusion belonging to hierarchial diifusion or epidemic diffusion. The harmony between economic growth and urbanization is evaluated by coupling harmony model, grey correlation analysis and entropy variation function.
The content of this study contains seven chapters. The first chapter elucidates the background, theoretical and practical meaning. And it reviews the related literature and brings forth the viewpoint, methods, aims and technical paths. In this part the difficultities, innovations and insufficiencies are also showed. The second chapter describes the spatial-temporal characters of economic growth and urbanization since reform and opening to outside world. And the correlateion between economic growth and urbanization is also analysized. The third chapter expatiate the theoretical machenism and model between urbanization and economic growth basing on the related research results. Agglemeration economics is regarded as the foundation between them. The research framework is constructed by regarding technology innovation as intermediary factors through which urbanization promote economic growth, urban-rural income distribution as the effect gone with economic growth and urbanization. The forth chapter puts forward the interaction mechanicsm between urbanization and technology innovation, and proves the correlation using data about cities and provinces. Then the interaction mechanicsm between urban system and innovateion duffusion is illuminated and proved by the example of innovation diffusion in the urban system of Yangze Delta. Basing on the macro and micro mechanism, the econometrical model of economic growth including urbanization and technology innovateion is constructed. Then empirical analysis is performed by panel data. The fifth chapter discusses the theoretical mechnanism which economic growth and urbanization affect urban-rural income inequality. Results show that urban bias is the main reason causing urban-rural income inequality to enlarge. Then the theoretical mechnanism between urban bias and urban-rural income inequality is explored. Empirical analyses are achieved to estimate the degree that economic growth, urbanization and urban bias affect urban-rural income inequality according to time series and panel data. The Correlation Modes between urbanization and economic growth are put forword in the sixth chapter. It also analyzes the dynamic relation between them by econometrical methods. The coupling harmony model, grey-relation model and entrophy variation function are applied to evaluate the harmony between urbanization and economic growth. The seventh chapter draws conclusion from all the discussions above, then brings forword some advices to enhance the harmony between urbanization and economic growth. The future orient of this research domain is also expected.
Some conclusions are drawn from the theoretical and empirical analyses about the correlation and influence effects of urbanization and economic growth in China. First, the level of urbanization is highly correlative with economic growth. Economic growth facilitates urbanization and urbanization promotes economic growth. The foundation between them is agglemeration economics. Second, the privilege of specialization and diversity, human capital accumulation, knowledge and information communication network formation and transaction efficiency promotion cause innovation and invention to cluster together in city. Urbanization is propitious to innovation and its diffusion. Third, there is obvious spatial correlation between urban system and innovation diffuseion. Forth, technology innovation is a main intermediary factor between urbanization and economic growth. Fifth, urban bias accompanying with economic growth and urbanization widens urban-rural income inequality. Sixth, Chinese urbanization is harmonious with economic growth as a whole, but non-harmony exists in some extent.
In order to establish the better interaction mechanism between urbanization and economic growth, some advices are put forword. First, urbanization is the inevitable trend during the course of economic growth, but urbanization must be basee on economic growth. Second, urbanization is an available way to enhance the capacility of technology innovation, so some means must be applied to encourage the development of all size cities and promote the central cities' pole. Third, the construction of traffic and information network among cities can provide good channels for innovateion diffusion. Forth, the strategy of "West Development" and "central China rising" must be carried out to reduce the disparities between regions. Urban bias in price, investment and financee must be turned to realize the equal development of city and country. Especially, the mechanism of "City supporting country" should be formed to accelerate the development of rural area. Fifth, the city growth mode must be transformed and over-urbanization due to urban bias and urban-rural inequality should be avoided.
This study has several innovations comparing with other research. First, spatial autocorrelation is used to reflect the spatial cluster. Second, the correlation between urbanization and economic growth is discussed from the viewpoint of technology innovation. The theoretical mechanism and actual evidence between urbanization and technology, urban system and innovation diffusion are also put forword. Third, the model which urban bias affects urban-rural income inequality is constructed and empirical analysis is complished to prove the correlation. Forth, in order to reflect the direct connection between urbanization and economic growth, dynamic econometrical methods and three models are applied to evaluate their harmony. As a whole, the statistical character is obvious in this study.
To a certain extend, this study reaches the expected aims. But it also exists some insufficiencies. For example, the theorical model of economic growth regarding urbanization and innovation as its independent variables is not deduced by mathematic illation. The mechanism of innovation spillovers and actual effects has not been complished. The roles of human capital and structure change in combing urbanization and economic growth need to study in the future.
经济增长中技术创新的作用日显重要,内生增长理论随之兴起,构建国家及区域创新系统、提升创新能力,受到人们的普遍关注。国家或地区的技术创新能力取决于多方面的因素,包括制度环境、研发投入、人力资本等,城市化是其中一个不容忽视的重要因素,因为城市是技术创新产生及扩散的“温床”和“天然实验室”。改革开放以来,伴随着经济增长与城市化进程,我国城乡收入差距不断扩大,成为影响整体收入分配的重要因素,且与构建和谐社会、建设全面小康的目标不相适应。如此背景下,将技术创新作为中介因素,考察城市化与经济增长的关联机制及具体表现;以城乡收入差距为切入点,探讨经济增长与城市化的影响效应,并直接开展城市化与经济增长协调度的综合评价,对于深刻理解、认识城市化与经济增长的关联性,合理推进城市化,保持中国经济既快又好地发展,增强城市化与经济增长之间的协调性,显得必要而紧迫。
为考察城市化与经济增长之间的关联机制及影响效应,评价两者之间的协调性,本文把规范研究与实证研究、定性分析与定量分析相结合。对城市化、技术创新与经济增长,经济增长、城市化与城乡收入差距之间理论机制的探讨采用规范研究的方法,对理论机制的检验和实际效应的测算则采用实证研究的方法。在实证研究中体现出明显的定量特征,采用多种统计与计量方法来开展分析。统计方法主要包括相关分析、回归分析、主成分分析、聚类分析、空间统计及统计分组等;时序数据的动态计量分析方法主要包括协整模型及检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数及预测方差分解等;对于面板数据则利用固定效应模型、随机效应模型,通过一般最小二乘法、工具变量法(Ⅳ)、矩估计法(GMM)等多种方法进行估计。另外,借鉴重力模型的形式提出创新空间扩散模型,通过模拟分析来判别创新的空间扩散是属于等级扩散还是传染扩散;利用三类模型对全国31个省、巿、自治区及全国整体上城市化与经济增长的协调度进行评价。
本文的研究主要包括以下几部分的内容:第一部分阐明选题的背景及理论、实际意义,回顾相关内容的研究动态,开展文献综述,提出研究视角、方法、目标及技术路径,给出本研究的难点、创新及不足。
第二部分利用时序及省级横截面数据,对改革开放以来经济增长、城市化的时空特征进行统计描述、对比分析,发现经济总量不断扩大、经济结构逐步调整的同时,经济增长的周期特征明显、地区之间的差距日益拉大;我国城市化已进入中期快速提升的阶段,城市空间聚集明显,城市化水平具有空间自相关性,城市化的区域间差异不断扩大,区域内部差异有所缩小,城市化逐步体现出大城市优先发展的规律,整体上处于集中型阶段,大城市出现明显的郊区化现象。对城市化与经济增长相关性的初步考察发现,城市化与经济增长之间的确存在密切的相关性。
第三部分在综合已有研究成果的基础上,首先,从产业结构变动、就业结构转换及制造业、服务业聚集三个方面,阐述经济增长促进城市化的机制;利用新古典城市增长模型、新经济地理城市化模型及新兴古典城市化模型来说明经济增长促进城市化的思想,并比较了三类模型的异同。其次,从聚集效应与扩散效应两方面概括城市化推动经济增长的机制,从物质资本驱动、投入——产出联系、要素迁移驱动及技术创新驱动几方面阐述城市化经济增长的模型。从城市化与经济增长的互动理论与模型分析中发现,聚集经济是两者相互作用的基础。最后,把技术创新作为城市化推动经济增长的一个重要中介因素,城乡收入差距作为经济增长与城市化的一个显著影响效应,提出本文的研究框架。
第四部分简述技术创新的概念及其对于经济增长的重要性后,重点探讨了城市化与技术创新的关联机制,并利用城市、省级数据对两者之间的关联性进行实证检验,发现城市有利于技术创新,城市化水平与人均技术创新产出高度相关;进一步把城市体系与创新扩散联系起来,提出两者的空间关联机理,以长三角城市体系为例利用相关分析与模拟分析对两者之间的空间关联性进行实证检验;在综合技术创新促进经济增长宏观、微观机制与模型的基础上,将城市化、技术创新作为自变量纳入经济增长模型,根据省级面板数据利用多种估计方法对城市化、技术创新促进经济增长的实际效应进行计量分析,发现我国城市化与技术创新对经济增长具有正向促进作用,但地区间的效应差异明显。
第五部分首先对城乡收入差距的历史轨迹及现实状况进行统计考察,从导致城乡收入差距持续扩大的原因分析中发现,城市偏向政策是造成城乡收入差距扩大的根本性原因;进而探讨经济增长、城市化促进城乡收入差距的作用机制,提出城市偏向影响城乡收入差距的理论模型,并以全国的时间序列、省级横截面及面板数据描述经济增长与城乡收入差距的关系,利用时序数据开展城市化、城市偏向与城乡收入差距关联的动态分析,以省级面板数据对经济增长、城市化及城市偏向影响城乡收入差距的具体效应进行混合模型、固定效应及随机效应模型的估计。
第六部分在概述城市化与经济增长之间几种关联模式及关于我国城市化与经济增长关系的争论后,对我国城市化是否滞后于工业化及近几年城市化速度是否过快的问题开展再考察;进而利用时序数据,直接对城市化与经济增长之间的关系进行动态计量分析;最后利用灰色关联模型、熵变方程及耦合协调度模型对城市化与经济增长之间的协调性进行综合评价,得到全国及各省城市化与经济增长之间的协调度。
第七部分对转型期中国城市化与经济增长之间的关联及影响效应进行总结,从主要结论中得到推进城市化进程,保持经济持续快速增长,提高两者协调性的政策启示,提出未来需进一步探讨的方向。
将技术创新作为城市化促进经济增长的中介因素、城乡收入差距作为经济增长与城市化的影响效应,对转型期我国城市化与经济增长的关系开展多角度的理论与实证分析,主要得到以下结论:(1)城市化水平与经济发展水平之间存在着密切的相关性,经济增长促进城市化,城市化反过来推动经济增长,两者互促共进,内在基础是聚集经济。(2)城市在专业化和多样性、人力资本积累、形成知识和信息交流网络及提高交易效率等方面的优势,使得城市成为创新和发明的集中地,城市化有利于技术创新及其扩散。(3)城市体系具有等级分布特征,创新扩散具有从中心城市向中小城市等级扩散的效应,两者之间具有较强的空间关联性;(4)城市化有利于技术创新,而创新在经济增长中的作用日益突出,故在城市化推动经济增长的作用机制中技术创新成为一个重要的中介因素;(5)伴随着我国经济增长与城市化进程,城乡收入差距不断扩大,其中一个重要的原因是由于众多政策都具有明显的城市偏向特征,城市偏向对城乡收入差距的作用效应明显;(6)总体上我国城市化仍滞后于工业化,近几年的城市化速度并未过快。(7)转型期我国城市化与经济增长总体上较为协调,但也存在一定的不协调性且地区间差异明显。
为促使城市化与经济增长之间良性互动机制的形成,上述结论对于中国城市化与经济增长的未来之路,不无以下政策启示:(1)随着经济发展,城市化水平大幅提高是必然趋势;而提高城市化水平,必须以经济增长为基础;(2)积极推进城市化不失为提高技术创新能力的一个有效途径,应鼓励各级城市发展,特别是提高中心城市的功能等级应作为提高区域创新能力的一个重要手段;(3)加强城市的交通、信息网络建设,为创新扩散提供良好渠道,有利于加速技术创新的扩散;(4)贯彻落实“西部大开发”及“中部崛起”战略,不断缩小区域差距;缩小不断扩大的城乡差距,必须彻底扭转政府在价格、投资及财政支出等方面城市偏向政策,实现城乡的平等发展;相应地建立起城市支持农村的机制,发挥城市辐射效应,带动乡村发展;(5)继续推进城市化的同时,一方面要注重转变城市增长方式,另一方面要防止出现城市偏向及城乡差距引致的过度城市化现象。
本文在借鉴众多学者已有研究成果的基础上,力求在以下几个方面有所创新:(1)研究视角的创新。将技术创新作为一个中介因素,对城市化与经济增长关联效应进行理论探讨和实证分析,给出城市化与技术创新、城市体系与创新扩散之间的关联机理及实际证据;将城乡收入差距作为经济增长与城市化的影响效应,认为众多影响城乡收入差距的因素都具有“城市偏向”特征,对“城市偏向”与城乡收入差距之间的理论联系与实际效应进行模型推导及计量分析。(2)研究方法的创新。利用城市化水平的空间自相关性来反映城市空间聚集现象;大部分实证都利用时序数据、截面数据及面板数据分析了时空两方面的特征;开展城市化、技术创新与经济增长以及城市化、城市偏向与城乡收入差距的实证分析时,除采用最小二乘法进行估计外,还考察工具变量法、矩估计法的估计效果。(3)研究思路的创新。为反映城市化与经济增长之间的直接联系,采用时序数据对两者的关联进行动态计量分析,利用三种模型从不同侧面对两者之间的协调度开展综合评价,思路上有所创新。
本文的研究虽在一定程度上达到预期研究目标,但也存在遗憾与不足。未能从数理形式上推导出同时考虑城市化与技术创新因素的经济增长理论模型;对技术创新溢出机理及实际溢出效应没有具体阐述及实际测算;对城市化促进经济增长的人力资本、结构变动等中介因素的具体效应有待进一步考察。这些都将是未来进一步学习和研究的主要方向。
Urbanization is the phenomena of spatial agglomeration with the development of economy and society. The level of urbanization is correlative with the extent of economy in a country or region. Economic growth facilitates urbanization and urbanization also accelerates economic and social development. As an important part of development, Chinese urbanization will obviously affect the future of its own and global development during transforming period. The problems about resource, environment and traffic are outstanding. They affect the sustainable development of the city and society.
Technology innovateion shows more important pole in economic growth. People pay more attentions to inhance the capacity of innovation. Technology innovation capacity is detemined by a lot of factors such as institution, R&D, human capital and so on. Among these factors, urbanization is important because city is the "nursery" and "natural lab" of innovation's emergence and duffusion. During the course of ecomomic growth and urbanization, urban-rural income inequality is widened and obviously affects the whole income distribution, the aim of harmonious and well-off society. So it is essential to review the correlative machenism between urbanization and economic growth through technology innovation. It is also necessitous to discuss the effects of economic growth and urbanization to urban-rural income inequality, and evaluate the harmony between economic growth and urbanization.
In order to achieve the above-mentioned aims, normative methods are combined with positive methods qualitative analysis is integrated with quantitative analysis. Normative methods are used to study the theoretic machenism among urbanization, technology innovation, economic growth and urban-rural income inequality. Positive methods are used to prove the theoretic machenism and analyze the actual effects. Many statistical and econometrical methods are applied in positive research. Statistical methods include correlative analysis, regression, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, spatial statistics and grouping. Dynamic econometrical methods include cointergration model, error correction model, Granger caulity test, impuls response function and variance decomposition. Fixed-effect model and random-effect model are used to estmate panel data by general OLS, instrument variable and GMM. Simulation analysis is applied to distinguish innovation spatial duffusion belonging to hierarchial diifusion or epidemic diffusion. The harmony between economic growth and urbanization is evaluated by coupling harmony model, grey correlation analysis and entropy variation function.
The content of this study contains seven chapters. The first chapter elucidates the background, theoretical and practical meaning. And it reviews the related literature and brings forth the viewpoint, methods, aims and technical paths. In this part the difficultities, innovations and insufficiencies are also showed. The second chapter describes the spatial-temporal characters of economic growth and urbanization since reform and opening to outside world. And the correlateion between economic growth and urbanization is also analysized. The third chapter expatiate the theoretical machenism and model between urbanization and economic growth basing on the related research results. Agglemeration economics is regarded as the foundation between them. The research framework is constructed by regarding technology innovation as intermediary factors through which urbanization promote economic growth, urban-rural income distribution as the effect gone with economic growth and urbanization. The forth chapter puts forward the interaction mechanicsm between urbanization and technology innovation, and proves the correlation using data about cities and provinces. Then the interaction mechanicsm between urban system and innovateion duffusion is illuminated and proved by the example of innovation diffusion in the urban system of Yangze Delta. Basing on the macro and micro mechanism, the econometrical model of economic growth including urbanization and technology innovateion is constructed. Then empirical analysis is performed by panel data. The fifth chapter discusses the theoretical mechnanism which economic growth and urbanization affect urban-rural income inequality. Results show that urban bias is the main reason causing urban-rural income inequality to enlarge. Then the theoretical mechnanism between urban bias and urban-rural income inequality is explored. Empirical analyses are achieved to estimate the degree that economic growth, urbanization and urban bias affect urban-rural income inequality according to time series and panel data. The Correlation Modes between urbanization and economic growth are put forword in the sixth chapter. It also analyzes the dynamic relation between them by econometrical methods. The coupling harmony model, grey-relation model and entrophy variation function are applied to evaluate the harmony between urbanization and economic growth. The seventh chapter draws conclusion from all the discussions above, then brings forword some advices to enhance the harmony between urbanization and economic growth. The future orient of this research domain is also expected.
Some conclusions are drawn from the theoretical and empirical analyses about the correlation and influence effects of urbanization and economic growth in China. First, the level of urbanization is highly correlative with economic growth. Economic growth facilitates urbanization and urbanization promotes economic growth. The foundation between them is agglemeration economics. Second, the privilege of specialization and diversity, human capital accumulation, knowledge and information communication network formation and transaction efficiency promotion cause innovation and invention to cluster together in city. Urbanization is propitious to innovation and its diffusion. Third, there is obvious spatial correlation between urban system and innovation diffuseion. Forth, technology innovation is a main intermediary factor between urbanization and economic growth. Fifth, urban bias accompanying with economic growth and urbanization widens urban-rural income inequality. Sixth, Chinese urbanization is harmonious with economic growth as a whole, but non-harmony exists in some extent.
In order to establish the better interaction mechanism between urbanization and economic growth, some advices are put forword. First, urbanization is the inevitable trend during the course of economic growth, but urbanization must be basee on economic growth. Second, urbanization is an available way to enhance the capacility of technology innovation, so some means must be applied to encourage the development of all size cities and promote the central cities' pole. Third, the construction of traffic and information network among cities can provide good channels for innovateion diffusion. Forth, the strategy of "West Development" and "central China rising" must be carried out to reduce the disparities between regions. Urban bias in price, investment and financee must be turned to realize the equal development of city and country. Especially, the mechanism of "City supporting country" should be formed to accelerate the development of rural area. Fifth, the city growth mode must be transformed and over-urbanization due to urban bias and urban-rural inequality should be avoided.
This study has several innovations comparing with other research. First, spatial autocorrelation is used to reflect the spatial cluster. Second, the correlation between urbanization and economic growth is discussed from the viewpoint of technology innovation. The theoretical mechanism and actual evidence between urbanization and technology, urban system and innovation diffusion are also put forword. Third, the model which urban bias affects urban-rural income inequality is constructed and empirical analysis is complished to prove the correlation. Forth, in order to reflect the direct connection between urbanization and economic growth, dynamic econometrical methods and three models are applied to evaluate their harmony. As a whole, the statistical character is obvious in this study.
To a certain extend, this study reaches the expected aims. But it also exists some insufficiencies. For example, the theorical model of economic growth regarding urbanization and innovation as its independent variables is not deduced by mathematic illation. The mechanism of innovation spillovers and actual effects has not been complished. The roles of human capital and structure change in combing urbanization and economic growth need to study in the future.
引文
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