基于树轮资料重建石羊河上游历史时期气候与径流量变化
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摘要
石羊河流域面临日益恶化的生态环境问题,已成为制约区域经济持续发展的重要因素。过短的气候、水文观测资料,不足于理解气候变化的潜在范围,区域极端事件以及在全球日益变暖的气候背景下区域气候、径流如何响应。树木年轮具有定年准确、连续性好、分辨率高、对环境变化敏感性强等优势,已在全球气候变化研究中被广泛应用。本文以石羊河上游为研究区,建立树轮网络,以树轮的宽度、灰度和密度参数作为研究对象,系统的分析树轮年表的变化特点及其环境意义,建立石羊河上游高分辨率的气候、径流序列,分析其演变规律,并对气候、径流变化的机制、机理进行探讨,为水资源变化研究提供丰富的数据资料,对建立合理的水资源分配制度、水资源的可持续管理以及未来水资源发展趋势预报,发挥至关重要的作用。主要的研究内容和结果为:
     1.在石羊河上游合理的采点布局,建立由21个样点组成的树轮网络,获取树轮的宽度、密度和灰度参数,经准确的交叉定年,建立多种参数的树轮年表。年表的变化型一致,石羊河上游树木生长有着共同的限制因子,记录了区域气候信息。对于轮印较清晰的树种,可用图像分析方法代替传统的宽度量测方法,提高工作效率。
     2.宽度年表与上年9月到当年4月降水、1-8月温度以及上年9月到当年8月的帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)相关性最显著。用DendroClim2002软件中的渐变和滑动时段分析方法分析树木生长一气候要素关系随时间的微妙变化,宽度年表与温度、降水相关关系的时间稳定性差,在80年代前后相关性的强度发生改变,此后树木生长对温度的敏感性降低;而PDSI对树木生长的限制作用强烈,稳定性好,持续性强,上年9月到当年8月的水分条件是石羊河上游树木生长的限制性因子。
     3.最大密度年表更多地反映温度,特别是夏季温度变化信息,同样最大灰度年表也与夏季温度关系密切,而最小灰度对夏半年(1~8月)温度的响应更为强烈,可用最小灰度这种易获取的相对密度值代替最大绝对密度值,节约实验时间和成本,使树轮分析工作变得简单、有效。温度和水分条件对最大灰度和最小灰度的影响呈反向关系。用最小灰度年表对夏半年最大温度进行重建效果更佳。
     4.利用嵌套回归和线性回归模型重建了石羊河上游的干旱变化序列,该区的干湿变化和树轮宽度指数与太阳活动的一致性较好。虽然近几十年祁连山不同地区的干湿变化呈现出差异性,但在较长的时间尺度上,祁连山地区的干湿变化还是一致的。此外,亚洲季风西北边缘区干湿序列的年代际变化也具有同步性。
     5.选择最小灰度年表和线性回归对石羊河上游夏半年最大温度进行重建,与祁连山中、西部温度变化具有一致性,表明该区树木年轮指示的气候变化具有一定的区域代表性。石羊河上游气候的年代际变化以冷湿和暖干组合占优势,20世纪20、30、60和90年代的暖干期,20世纪初、40和50年代的冷湿期,在一定程度上可以表征冷龙岭冰川的进退。周期分析显示,该区的干旱序列和温度序列均包含35、4.14和2.6年的周期,该区的气候变化与ENSO和太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)关系密切,但是在20世纪初北极涛动(AO)对该区温度的影响更为强烈。
     6.上年9月至当年8月的水分条件是形成年轮一径流量良好相关性的物理气候学基础。采用不同的回归模型,分别对各支流径流量进行重建,探讨了径流量在不同时间尺度上的变化规律。各支流补给来源较稳定,年际变化不大,平水年出现概率最高,极端丰、枯水年出现的概率基本相同。径流的丰枯变化对应于气候的冷湿、暖干变化,其中水分条件对径流变化的影响较温度更为强烈。
In the past few years, many serious ecological problems caused by the shortage of water resources, such as discontinuous surface runoff, dried lakes, lowered groundwater level, and deteriorated water quality had emerged in the Shiyang River Basin. But hydrologic observation data were short and clearly insufficient for understanding the extremes, and how hydrological variability may be changing in a warming world. And few high-resolution and long researches had been carried out in this region yet. Compared with most of palaeoclimatological proxies, tree-ring showed advantages in its relative high-resolution and annual time-series for calibrating the relationships between climate and proxy, and it had been well established as records of past climate and streaflow changes. The upstream of the Shiyang River was chosen as the focuses of this study. We present some of the first hydrometeorological reconstructions for this region using a tree-ring chronology network from Picea crassifolia using multiple sites across Lenglongling Mountain, and extended available instrumental observations by more than one century. The results should contribute to sustainable water management solutions in the face of increasing water scarcity and growing conflicts over water use for the Shiyang River Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree-ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought.
     Twenty-one sampling sites were selected in the upstream of the Shiyang River, and a total of 805 increment cores were extracted with standard increment borers. Cores were cross-dated by visual growth pattern matching, statistical tests in the software package TSAP and skeleton in the WinDENDRO, possible dating errors were re-checked using the quality control software COFECHA. Finally, thirty-four new tree-ring width chronologies, four maximum density chronologies, thirty-four minimum gray chronologies, and twelve maximum gray chronologies were developed in study area.
     Width chronologies were significant related to precipitation from previous September to current April, mean temperature from January to August, and mean PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) from previous September to current August. Correlation and stability analyses calculated by the program of DendroClim2002 showed that regional moisture conditions were the main environmental factor limiting tree growth at Lenglongling Mountain and PDSI as a predictand for drought reconstructions was much more appropriate than any climatic variable. Two maximum density standardized chronologies were significant negative related to maximum temperature from January to August, minimum gray chronologies were significant positive related to maximum temperature from January to August, and maximum gray chronologies were negative related to summer temperature.
     Drought fluctuations in the upstream of the Shiyang River were reconstructed using nest and linear regressions. PDSI reconstructions successfully captured both high-frequency (three extreme drought events and two significant humid events) and low-frequency (three obvious descendent periods and two ascendant periods) variations of local moisture availability. By comparing our reconstruction with other available drought reconstructions, the results indicated that good consistency in multi-decadal-scale moisture variations in Qilian Mountains and similar regional moisture variations and analogous modes of climate forcing on tree growth in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mean maximum temperature from January to August in the upstream of the Shiyang River was reconstructed based on minimum gray chronologies. During 1920s,1930s,1960s and 1990s, the climate was warm and dry. The dominant periodicities of drought and temperature reconstructions were 35,4.14 and 2.6-years obtained by multi-taper method of spectrum analysis. Climate change in study area was closely related to surface sea temperature variations in Pacific.
     To understand the hydrologic response of the radial growth of Picea crassifolia, correlation analyses of tree-ring chronologies with precipitation and runoff were conducted. The results showed that chronologies were significantly and strongly related to total runoff from September of the previous year to August of the growing year (RSA), chronologies also had significant and positive relationships with total precipitation from September of the previous year to August of the growing year (PSA), and the correlation coefficients between RSA and PSA were significant and positive. Therefore, precipitation played a role of bridge and tie between tree-rings and runoff. Then, annual runoff series of Jinta, Zamu and Huangyang Rivers were reconstructed according to multiple linear stepwise regression models, and runoff series of Xiying River were reconstructed utilizing principal components extraction and stepwise regression, and all models were tested by the methods of leave-one-out and cross-verification. There was a notable correlation between four runoff series, with a correlation coefficient of 0.52. Four series had the same change tendency, and contained four severe dry periods (during 1880-1892,1925-1935,1960-1967, and 1997-2002) and three significant wet periods (occurred in 1894-1923,1935-1959, and 1967-1986). The dominant periods calculated by MTM spectrum analysis were 2-4 and 35 years at different significant levels.
引文
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