联想并购IBMPC业务后评估
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摘要
金融危机的影响一方面让部分经营管理不善的企业资产价值大幅缩水;一方面给予营运健康、资金充裕的企业走出去扩张的机会。在中国企业加速内部整合,加快“走出去”步伐,并购热浪重新卷起的今天,站在四年后的时间节点,从经济的角度再次回顾、总结、评价联想集团(以下简称联想)收购IBM PC业务这一具有典型意义的中国企业跨国收购案,无论从理论还是实践上都具有现实意义。
本文试图在对后评估、并购及并购整合理论充分阐述的基础上,着重从绩效评价角度入手,介绍相关理论研究概况并阐明评价方法,结合联想并购IBM PC案例,通过并购背景、过程以及目前并购现状、新的外部环境的分析,提出并购绩效评价体系设计的新思路,并尝试结合各种不同的后评估方法,综合设计评价指标体系,并通过事件研究法以及财务指标法对联想并购前后市场数据、财务报表数据进行实际验证、分析。尽管受诸多不可控因素影响,目前尚没有一种方法能够预测并购整合的最终结果,多年来学者对于并购绩效评价实证研究也没有得出统一的结论。本文写作的目的不是为寻找唯一解决方案,而是试图综合一种更完善的指标体系提供给那些计划对并购实施评估的企业以借鉴。
并购后评估是一项复杂的系统工程,需要做大量前后期的资料收集、分析工作,仅本文的阐述不足以完全帮助企业做好评价工作,希望本文能引起相关企业的兴趣与重视,让海外扩张的步伐迈得更稳健,更成功。
The recent financial crisis has substantially reduced the value of many enterprises; at the same time it provides unique opportunities to expand market for those companies with sufficient capital and great flexibility in managing their business. In China, the trend has been that companies fastened the speed of integration and global deployment, producing frequent news of merger and acquisition. With four years of experience, we look back from economic perspective, summarize and evaluate the performance of Lenovo’s historic acquisition of IBM’s PC business. We believe this study would both be theoretically appealing and realistic practicality.
Through the theory of acquisition and integration, as well as its evaluation learned during the MBA study, with special focus on the performance aspect, the thesis will introduce related research areas and illustrate the evaluation methodology. We apply these theories and methodologies to Lenovo’s acquisition of IBM PC case. By analyzing the background, process, current state and external environment of this acquisition, we provide new ideas on analyzing the effectiveness of acquisitions, and use event study methodology and financial target methodology to validate and analyze these effectiveness.
Since there are many uncontrollable factors, there has been no methodology to forecast the eventual success of this acquisition. The objective of this thesis is not to find or provide the eventual solution. Instead, it tries to integrate various theories and provide ideas to those companies sponsoring merger and reorganization initiatives.
The evaluation of merger and acquisition is a complex process. It requires large amount of information collection, data analyzing, summarizing and implementation during both the beginning and end age of the deal period. Though this thesis is not a comprehensive guide on evaluating the effectiveness of M&A’s. I hope that it could still provide valuable thoughts on moving toward a more robust and effective expansion process for those who are interested in such initiatives.
本文试图在对后评估、并购及并购整合理论充分阐述的基础上,着重从绩效评价角度入手,介绍相关理论研究概况并阐明评价方法,结合联想并购IBM PC案例,通过并购背景、过程以及目前并购现状、新的外部环境的分析,提出并购绩效评价体系设计的新思路,并尝试结合各种不同的后评估方法,综合设计评价指标体系,并通过事件研究法以及财务指标法对联想并购前后市场数据、财务报表数据进行实际验证、分析。尽管受诸多不可控因素影响,目前尚没有一种方法能够预测并购整合的最终结果,多年来学者对于并购绩效评价实证研究也没有得出统一的结论。本文写作的目的不是为寻找唯一解决方案,而是试图综合一种更完善的指标体系提供给那些计划对并购实施评估的企业以借鉴。
并购后评估是一项复杂的系统工程,需要做大量前后期的资料收集、分析工作,仅本文的阐述不足以完全帮助企业做好评价工作,希望本文能引起相关企业的兴趣与重视,让海外扩张的步伐迈得更稳健,更成功。
The recent financial crisis has substantially reduced the value of many enterprises; at the same time it provides unique opportunities to expand market for those companies with sufficient capital and great flexibility in managing their business. In China, the trend has been that companies fastened the speed of integration and global deployment, producing frequent news of merger and acquisition. With four years of experience, we look back from economic perspective, summarize and evaluate the performance of Lenovo’s historic acquisition of IBM’s PC business. We believe this study would both be theoretically appealing and realistic practicality.
Through the theory of acquisition and integration, as well as its evaluation learned during the MBA study, with special focus on the performance aspect, the thesis will introduce related research areas and illustrate the evaluation methodology. We apply these theories and methodologies to Lenovo’s acquisition of IBM PC case. By analyzing the background, process, current state and external environment of this acquisition, we provide new ideas on analyzing the effectiveness of acquisitions, and use event study methodology and financial target methodology to validate and analyze these effectiveness.
Since there are many uncontrollable factors, there has been no methodology to forecast the eventual success of this acquisition. The objective of this thesis is not to find or provide the eventual solution. Instead, it tries to integrate various theories and provide ideas to those companies sponsoring merger and reorganization initiatives.
The evaluation of merger and acquisition is a complex process. It requires large amount of information collection, data analyzing, summarizing and implementation during both the beginning and end age of the deal period. Though this thesis is not a comprehensive guide on evaluating the effectiveness of M&A’s. I hope that it could still provide valuable thoughts on moving toward a more robust and effective expansion process for those who are interested in such initiatives.
引文
[1]候志红.中国海外并购“亮剑”.中国证券报, 2008
[2]刘楚峰.联想集团并购整合IBM PC业务问题研究: [硕士学位论文].沈阳:东北财经大学, 2007
[3]王海.中国企业海外并购经济后果研究—基于联想并购IBM PC业务的案例分析.管理世界, 2007, 2: 94-172
[4]金蓉.并购后整合(PMI)过程中的评价问题研究—基于联想并购IBM PC业务的案例分析.经济师, 2008, 2: 19-21
[5]郭炜.企业并购绩效评价实证研究.华东经济管理, 2005, 19: 118-120
[6]杨宗翰.中国上市公司并购的绩效评价: [硕士学位论文].南宁:广西大学, 2008
[7]肖翔,王娟.我国上市公司基于EVA的并购绩效研究.统计研究, 2009, 26: 108-109
[8]陈木坤,齐中英.基于改进平衡记分卡的企业并购绩效评价.企业天地, 2006, 11: 156-157
[9]陈杰.某油田开发建设项目后评估经济评价.江苏油田, 2005
[10]李磊.通信企业投资项目后评估体系研究: [硕士学位论文].哈尔滨:哈尔滨理工大学, 2005
[11]邹欣,邹一峰.中外投资项目评价.南京:南京大学出版社, 1998
[12]吕滨.投资性贷款项目后评估成功度评价的模糊数学方法.决策借鉴, 1996, 5: 42-44
[13]张三立.项目后评价.北京:清华大学出版社, 1999
[14]翟丽丽.通信企业投资项目后评估评价指标体系研究.工业技术经济, 2004, 1: 102-103
[15]王宏利.企业并购绩效与目标公司选择.北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2005
[16]周春生.融资、并购与公司控制.北京:北京大学出版社, 2005
[17]周惠珍.投资项目评估案例分析.大连:东北财经大学出版社, 2000
[18]张洪青,张艳馥.开展投资项目后评估,提高决策科学化水平.华北电力大学学报(社会科学版). 1996, 4: 34-35
[19] Jorn Rattso, Ragnar Torvik. Zimbabwean trade liberalisation: ex post evaluation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1998, 22: 325-346
[20] Margaret Chitiga, Ramos Mabugu. Evaluating the Impact of Land Redistribution: A CGE Microsimulation Application to Zimbabwe. Journal of African Economics, 2008, 17(4): 527-549
[21]郭炜.企业并购绩效评价的会计指标法研究综述.武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版), 2005, 27: 284-287
[22] Fama E. F., French K. R. The Cross section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 1992, 47: 427-465
[23] Brown S. J., Warner J. B. Measuring security price performance. Journal of Financial Economics, 1985, 14: 3-31
[24] Brown S. J., Warner J. B. Using daily stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 1980, 8: 205-258
[25] Jensen M. C. The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period1945-1964. Journal of Financial, 1968, 23(2): 389-416
[26] Asquith P. Merger Bids Uncertainty and Stockholder Returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 1983(11): 51-83
[27] Meeks G., Meeks J. G. Profitability measures as indicators of post merger performance. Journal of Industrial Economics, 1980, 24: 335-344
[28] Healy P. M., Palepu K. G., Ruback R. S. Does Corporate Performance Improve After Mergers. Journal of Financial Economics, 1992, 31(135): 75-135
[29] Ramaswamy K. P., Salatka W. Impact of Mergers on Long Term Operating Performance of the Combined Firm, Working Paper, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 1996
[30] Krishnan H. A., Miller A., Judge W. O. Diversification and top management team complementarity: is performance improved by merging similar or dissimilar teams?. Strategic Management Journal, 1997, 18(5): 361-374
[31] Harrison J. S., Hitt M. A., Hoskisson R. E., et al. Synergies and post-acquisition performance differences versus similarities in resource allocations. Journal ofManagement, 1991, 17(1): 173-190
[32]陈健,席酉民,郭菊娥.国外并购绩效评价方法研究综述.当代经济科学, 2005, 27: 85-111
[33]罗伯特J.博尔盖塞.并购—从计划到整合.伍旭川译.北京:机械工业出版社, 2004
[34] Chuan Zhi Liu. Lenovo: an example of globalization of Chinese enterprises. Journal of International Business Studies, 2007, 38: 573-577
[35]胡宗良.联想收购IBM个人电脑业务的价值评价.经济管理, 2005, 7: 75-78
[36]李菁.联想收购IBM全球PC业务案例分析: [硕士学位论文].北京:对外经济贸易大学, 2007
[37]丁峰,张鹏,王滨.从联想并购IBM PC看“蛇吞象”的五大风险.新财经, 2005, 1: 56-59
[38]王元地.联想+IBM=世界第三—联想并购IBM的10个协同效应.软件工程师, 2005: 84-88
[39]黄娟娟.钢丝上的舞蹈—联想并购IBM的风险收益分析.经济研究, 2005, 2: 34-37
[40]冀勇庆.复盘联想. IT经理世界, 2009, 2
[41]谷洪才.企业并购绩效评价体系设计研究.上海立信会计学院学报, 2005, 19: 30-33
[42] John Quelch, Carin-Isabel Knoop. Lenovo: Building a global brand. 9-507-014 Harvard Business School, 2006
[43]李常青.股利政策理论与实证研究.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2001
[44] Gartner:2008年五大PC厂商市场占有率
[45]赵妍.联想:以战略重组迎战寒冬.大经贸, 2009, 2: 74-75
[46]王勇.联想的艰难时刻.中国企业家, 2009, 1: 68-71
[47]资料来源:联想集团2007/2008财年年度财务报表
[48]刘锴.企业并购绩效评价方法的分类探讨.江苏商论, 2009, 1: 102-104
[2]刘楚峰.联想集团并购整合IBM PC业务问题研究: [硕士学位论文].沈阳:东北财经大学, 2007
[3]王海.中国企业海外并购经济后果研究—基于联想并购IBM PC业务的案例分析.管理世界, 2007, 2: 94-172
[4]金蓉.并购后整合(PMI)过程中的评价问题研究—基于联想并购IBM PC业务的案例分析.经济师, 2008, 2: 19-21
[5]郭炜.企业并购绩效评价实证研究.华东经济管理, 2005, 19: 118-120
[6]杨宗翰.中国上市公司并购的绩效评价: [硕士学位论文].南宁:广西大学, 2008
[7]肖翔,王娟.我国上市公司基于EVA的并购绩效研究.统计研究, 2009, 26: 108-109
[8]陈木坤,齐中英.基于改进平衡记分卡的企业并购绩效评价.企业天地, 2006, 11: 156-157
[9]陈杰.某油田开发建设项目后评估经济评价.江苏油田, 2005
[10]李磊.通信企业投资项目后评估体系研究: [硕士学位论文].哈尔滨:哈尔滨理工大学, 2005
[11]邹欣,邹一峰.中外投资项目评价.南京:南京大学出版社, 1998
[12]吕滨.投资性贷款项目后评估成功度评价的模糊数学方法.决策借鉴, 1996, 5: 42-44
[13]张三立.项目后评价.北京:清华大学出版社, 1999
[14]翟丽丽.通信企业投资项目后评估评价指标体系研究.工业技术经济, 2004, 1: 102-103
[15]王宏利.企业并购绩效与目标公司选择.北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2005
[16]周春生.融资、并购与公司控制.北京:北京大学出版社, 2005
[17]周惠珍.投资项目评估案例分析.大连:东北财经大学出版社, 2000
[18]张洪青,张艳馥.开展投资项目后评估,提高决策科学化水平.华北电力大学学报(社会科学版). 1996, 4: 34-35
[19] Jorn Rattso, Ragnar Torvik. Zimbabwean trade liberalisation: ex post evaluation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1998, 22: 325-346
[20] Margaret Chitiga, Ramos Mabugu. Evaluating the Impact of Land Redistribution: A CGE Microsimulation Application to Zimbabwe. Journal of African Economics, 2008, 17(4): 527-549
[21]郭炜.企业并购绩效评价的会计指标法研究综述.武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版), 2005, 27: 284-287
[22] Fama E. F., French K. R. The Cross section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 1992, 47: 427-465
[23] Brown S. J., Warner J. B. Measuring security price performance. Journal of Financial Economics, 1985, 14: 3-31
[24] Brown S. J., Warner J. B. Using daily stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 1980, 8: 205-258
[25] Jensen M. C. The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period1945-1964. Journal of Financial, 1968, 23(2): 389-416
[26] Asquith P. Merger Bids Uncertainty and Stockholder Returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 1983(11): 51-83
[27] Meeks G., Meeks J. G. Profitability measures as indicators of post merger performance. Journal of Industrial Economics, 1980, 24: 335-344
[28] Healy P. M., Palepu K. G., Ruback R. S. Does Corporate Performance Improve After Mergers. Journal of Financial Economics, 1992, 31(135): 75-135
[29] Ramaswamy K. P., Salatka W. Impact of Mergers on Long Term Operating Performance of the Combined Firm, Working Paper, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 1996
[30] Krishnan H. A., Miller A., Judge W. O. Diversification and top management team complementarity: is performance improved by merging similar or dissimilar teams?. Strategic Management Journal, 1997, 18(5): 361-374
[31] Harrison J. S., Hitt M. A., Hoskisson R. E., et al. Synergies and post-acquisition performance differences versus similarities in resource allocations. Journal ofManagement, 1991, 17(1): 173-190
[32]陈健,席酉民,郭菊娥.国外并购绩效评价方法研究综述.当代经济科学, 2005, 27: 85-111
[33]罗伯特J.博尔盖塞.并购—从计划到整合.伍旭川译.北京:机械工业出版社, 2004
[34] Chuan Zhi Liu. Lenovo: an example of globalization of Chinese enterprises. Journal of International Business Studies, 2007, 38: 573-577
[35]胡宗良.联想收购IBM个人电脑业务的价值评价.经济管理, 2005, 7: 75-78
[36]李菁.联想收购IBM全球PC业务案例分析: [硕士学位论文].北京:对外经济贸易大学, 2007
[37]丁峰,张鹏,王滨.从联想并购IBM PC看“蛇吞象”的五大风险.新财经, 2005, 1: 56-59
[38]王元地.联想+IBM=世界第三—联想并购IBM的10个协同效应.软件工程师, 2005: 84-88
[39]黄娟娟.钢丝上的舞蹈—联想并购IBM的风险收益分析.经济研究, 2005, 2: 34-37
[40]冀勇庆.复盘联想. IT经理世界, 2009, 2
[41]谷洪才.企业并购绩效评价体系设计研究.上海立信会计学院学报, 2005, 19: 30-33
[42] John Quelch, Carin-Isabel Knoop. Lenovo: Building a global brand. 9-507-014 Harvard Business School, 2006
[43]李常青.股利政策理论与实证研究.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2001
[44] Gartner:2008年五大PC厂商市场占有率
[45]赵妍.联想:以战略重组迎战寒冬.大经贸, 2009, 2: 74-75
[46]王勇.联想的艰难时刻.中国企业家, 2009, 1: 68-71
[47]资料来源:联想集团2007/2008财年年度财务报表
[48]刘锴.企业并购绩效评价方法的分类探讨.江苏商论, 2009, 1: 102-104