基于行为股利理论的上市公司非理性股利政策研究
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摘要
作为上市公司的核心财务政策之一,股利分配值受到利益各方的充分关注。其恰当与否,直接关乎公司的未未发展,投资者的经济利益以及资本市场的稳定与否,因此,对上市公司而言,权衡各方利益以制定合理的股利政策将具有十分重要的意义。然而,综观我国上市公司股利分配现状,其与西方资本市场上市公司的理性股利政策特征相去甚远,表现出诸多的“非理性”,因此传统的经典股利理论很难对其进行强有力的解释或预测,从而有必要引入行为股利理论及其研究方法,以对我国上市公司非理性股利政策进行更具针对性的本土化研究。
本文首先阐述了行为财务学的基本观点以及基于行为财务学的行为股利理论,分析了行为股利理论对经典股利理论的创新；然后从经济学、财务学、心理学等学科领域出发,以夯实行为股利研究的理论基础,并力图形成一些演绎性的理论成果或观点；接着借鉴西方资本市场上市公司的理性股利政策分配经验,深入剖析了我国资本市场上市公司股利政策的非理性特征,并在此基础上分析了行为股利理论对我国上市公司非理性股利政策研究的适用性；第四,基于两个不同的理论框架,即投资者非理性框架与管理者非理性框架,分别运用行为股利理论及其方法,对我国资本市场的实际——上市公司非理性股利政策进行了理论分析与实证研究；最后立足于公司股利政策的理性提升,择其要点略述了有关制度的改进建议。
本文主要力图在以下儿个方而有所创新：一是区别于传统的研究方法,本文较系统地从行为角度来对我国上市公司股利政策进行分析研究,视角具有独特性,也更符合我国证券市场的实际情况,因而也更可能有针对性地提供一些更具解释力的理论成果与经验证据。虽然这并非我们独有的特色,但还算“人烟稀疏”的“不寻常路”,特别是从这个研究角度展开系统性研究的博士论文还很少。二是从经济学、财务学、心理学等学科领域出发,力求夯实行为股利研究的理论基础,并力图形成一些演绎性的理论成果或观点,以期深化人们对于行为股利研究的理解,并强化其对现实股利政策的解释能力。三是为深入剖析当前市场环境下的投资者的非理性心理与行为特征,我们基于与投资者信念、偏好以及决策相关的认知心理学和社会心理学的研究成果,结合我国证券市场的实际,设计了一份专门针对投资者行为的股利政策调查问卷,并根据其统计结果从投资者非理性方面对我国上市公司的非理性股利政策进行了解释。四是鉴于我国证券市场投资者的非理性,本文首次运用国外行为股利研究的最新成果——股利迎合理论,且在对其所定义的股利溢价进行改造的基础上,即将其定义为送转股公司与纯派现公司的平均市值账面比(M/B)的差值,利用Logistic模型以及多元回归模型来对我国上市公司管理者是否存在理性迎合投资者热衷送转股的股利偏好的行为进行了深入研究。五是国内对于管理者过度自信的研究,较多地集中于对公司的投融资决策的影响方面,很少甚至几乎没有涉及公司股利决策方面。同时,如何有效地度量管理者过度自信程度,也一直是行为财务学研究的难题。基于此,本文首先对“管理者过度自信”的度量方法进行了可行性的创新,然后在此基础上构建了两个模型以深入研究管理者过度自信程度与公司股利政策之间的关系。而该方面的研究目前在国内尚属首次,因而本文在一定程度上弥补了该方面研究的空缺。
For listed firms, dividend policy is not only one of core financial policies, and has always been received attentions from stakeholders but also plays an important role in firm's development, shareholders'interests, and capital markets'stability. Therefore, it is of importance for listed firms to carry out reasonable dividend policies. Dividend policies in Chinese listed firms have great differences from those in western counterparts and display more irrationality. Classical theories of corporate finance fail to give reasonable explanations for them. It, hence, is reasonable and necessary to introduce behavioral dividend theories and methods.
The structure of this paper is as follows. First, this paper illustrates the theories of behavioral finance, the behavior dividend theories, and their recent developments. Second, based on some principles of economics, finance, and psychology, some theoretic conclusions and point views are formed using induction method. Third, irrational behaviors are investigated further after reviewing some practices of rational dividend policies in western listed firms. Based on the above, this paper point out that it is suitable to use behavioral dividend theory to analyze the irrationality in Chinese listed firms. Fourth, based on following two perspectives, investors'irrationality and managerial's irrationality, irrational dividend behaviors and policies in China are tested empirically. Finally, some advice corresponding to the empirical conclusions are given so as to correct the irrational dividend behaviors in Chinese listed firms.
This article aims at following five innovations. First, dividend policy is systematically analyzed using behavioral methods different from traditionally rational ones. These methods are more suitable for the dividend analysis of the Chinese listed firms, and are more reasonable to explain some empirical results. Second, based on some principles of economics, finance, and psychology, some theoretic conclusions and point views are formed using induction method. Hence, behavioral dividend theory is understood further, and the practices of current dividend policies get reasonable explanations. Third, in order to analyze the irrational psychology and behaviors in current markets environment, we base the questionnaire special for investors'behaviors on investors'beliefs, preference, some results from psychology, and some practices in Chinese securities markets. According to the statistical results from the questionnaire, we explain the irrational dividend polices. Fourth, we first employ the catering theory of dividends (the latest dividend theory) and the revised dividend premium which is defined the former. The revised dividend premium, herein, is measured by the mean M/B difference between the firms issuing stock dividends and ones issuing cash dividends. Logistic models and multi-regression models are used to examine whether there is the behavior that manages cater to the shareholders' preference for stock dividends. Finally, although some literature on managerial overconfidence is explored, they focus usually on the decision on financing the projects and seldom involve the dividend policy. Moreover, it has been a difficult problem for researchers to measure managerial overconfidence effectively. This paper gives an effective measurement of managerial overconfidence. After that, two models are developed to study further the relation between the managerial overconfidence and dividend policy, which fills in the gap in the existing literature to some extent.
本文首先阐述了行为财务学的基本观点以及基于行为财务学的行为股利理论,分析了行为股利理论对经典股利理论的创新；然后从经济学、财务学、心理学等学科领域出发,以夯实行为股利研究的理论基础,并力图形成一些演绎性的理论成果或观点；接着借鉴西方资本市场上市公司的理性股利政策分配经验,深入剖析了我国资本市场上市公司股利政策的非理性特征,并在此基础上分析了行为股利理论对我国上市公司非理性股利政策研究的适用性；第四,基于两个不同的理论框架,即投资者非理性框架与管理者非理性框架,分别运用行为股利理论及其方法,对我国资本市场的实际——上市公司非理性股利政策进行了理论分析与实证研究；最后立足于公司股利政策的理性提升,择其要点略述了有关制度的改进建议。
本文主要力图在以下儿个方而有所创新：一是区别于传统的研究方法,本文较系统地从行为角度来对我国上市公司股利政策进行分析研究,视角具有独特性,也更符合我国证券市场的实际情况,因而也更可能有针对性地提供一些更具解释力的理论成果与经验证据。虽然这并非我们独有的特色,但还算“人烟稀疏”的“不寻常路”,特别是从这个研究角度展开系统性研究的博士论文还很少。二是从经济学、财务学、心理学等学科领域出发,力求夯实行为股利研究的理论基础,并力图形成一些演绎性的理论成果或观点,以期深化人们对于行为股利研究的理解,并强化其对现实股利政策的解释能力。三是为深入剖析当前市场环境下的投资者的非理性心理与行为特征,我们基于与投资者信念、偏好以及决策相关的认知心理学和社会心理学的研究成果,结合我国证券市场的实际,设计了一份专门针对投资者行为的股利政策调查问卷,并根据其统计结果从投资者非理性方面对我国上市公司的非理性股利政策进行了解释。四是鉴于我国证券市场投资者的非理性,本文首次运用国外行为股利研究的最新成果——股利迎合理论,且在对其所定义的股利溢价进行改造的基础上,即将其定义为送转股公司与纯派现公司的平均市值账面比(M/B)的差值,利用Logistic模型以及多元回归模型来对我国上市公司管理者是否存在理性迎合投资者热衷送转股的股利偏好的行为进行了深入研究。五是国内对于管理者过度自信的研究,较多地集中于对公司的投融资决策的影响方面,很少甚至几乎没有涉及公司股利决策方面。同时,如何有效地度量管理者过度自信程度,也一直是行为财务学研究的难题。基于此,本文首先对“管理者过度自信”的度量方法进行了可行性的创新,然后在此基础上构建了两个模型以深入研究管理者过度自信程度与公司股利政策之间的关系。而该方面的研究目前在国内尚属首次,因而本文在一定程度上弥补了该方面研究的空缺。
For listed firms, dividend policy is not only one of core financial policies, and has always been received attentions from stakeholders but also plays an important role in firm's development, shareholders'interests, and capital markets'stability. Therefore, it is of importance for listed firms to carry out reasonable dividend policies. Dividend policies in Chinese listed firms have great differences from those in western counterparts and display more irrationality. Classical theories of corporate finance fail to give reasonable explanations for them. It, hence, is reasonable and necessary to introduce behavioral dividend theories and methods.
The structure of this paper is as follows. First, this paper illustrates the theories of behavioral finance, the behavior dividend theories, and their recent developments. Second, based on some principles of economics, finance, and psychology, some theoretic conclusions and point views are formed using induction method. Third, irrational behaviors are investigated further after reviewing some practices of rational dividend policies in western listed firms. Based on the above, this paper point out that it is suitable to use behavioral dividend theory to analyze the irrationality in Chinese listed firms. Fourth, based on following two perspectives, investors'irrationality and managerial's irrationality, irrational dividend behaviors and policies in China are tested empirically. Finally, some advice corresponding to the empirical conclusions are given so as to correct the irrational dividend behaviors in Chinese listed firms.
This article aims at following five innovations. First, dividend policy is systematically analyzed using behavioral methods different from traditionally rational ones. These methods are more suitable for the dividend analysis of the Chinese listed firms, and are more reasonable to explain some empirical results. Second, based on some principles of economics, finance, and psychology, some theoretic conclusions and point views are formed using induction method. Hence, behavioral dividend theory is understood further, and the practices of current dividend policies get reasonable explanations. Third, in order to analyze the irrational psychology and behaviors in current markets environment, we base the questionnaire special for investors'behaviors on investors'beliefs, preference, some results from psychology, and some practices in Chinese securities markets. According to the statistical results from the questionnaire, we explain the irrational dividend polices. Fourth, we first employ the catering theory of dividends (the latest dividend theory) and the revised dividend premium which is defined the former. The revised dividend premium, herein, is measured by the mean M/B difference between the firms issuing stock dividends and ones issuing cash dividends. Logistic models and multi-regression models are used to examine whether there is the behavior that manages cater to the shareholders' preference for stock dividends. Finally, although some literature on managerial overconfidence is explored, they focus usually on the decision on financing the projects and seldom involve the dividend policy. Moreover, it has been a difficult problem for researchers to measure managerial overconfidence effectively. This paper gives an effective measurement of managerial overconfidence. After that, two models are developed to study further the relation between the managerial overconfidence and dividend policy, which fills in the gap in the existing literature to some extent.
引文
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