中国区域经济差异及协调发展研究
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摘要
自1978年中国实行改革开放的政策之后,中国采取了东部优先发展的战略,取得了相当大的成效。这二十多年来,国民经济以平均每年9%的速度快速健康发展,人民生活水平不断提高,综合国力不断增强,我国在世界上的经济地位也日益提高。但是,中国的不平衡发展战略也带来了相当多弊端,产生了各种各样的矛盾和问题,区域经济差距的扩大就是一个突出的问题。尽管目前对区域差距的变化方向、程度和效应还存在不同的观点,但事实已经证明,区域经济差异扩大已经成为一个摆在我们面前的突出问题,对国民经济和社会发展产生了不容忽视的影响,正在引起越来越引起人们的广泛关注。本文对改革开放后中国区域经济差异进行了实证分析,找出了影响我国区域经济差异的主要原因,并就缩小各地区经济差异,构建和谐社会提出了政策建议。
在以省份为单元对我国区域经济差距的实证分析中,运用了计算相对差异和绝对差异的标准差、极差、变异系数、极值比率、基尼系数和锡尔系数等多种方法,实证分析结果显示,自1978年之后,中国的绝对差异一直呈扩大趋势,而相对差异在90年代以前一直在缩小,90年代之后迅速扩大,进入21世纪后扩大速度有所减缓。从对基尼系数和锡尔系数的三大地带分析结果来看,自改革开放以来东中西三大地带间经济差异一直在逐渐拉大,地带内的差距一直在缩小。地带间的差异对全国总体区域经济差异的影响较地带内差异更为显著,其中,东部省际经济差异表现突出。按产业对人均GDP进行基尼系数的分解,发现第二产业对基尼系数一直起着扩大差异的作用,而第一产业和第二产业则是起着降低总体不平衡程度的作用。
区域差距形成的原因是复杂的,本文以陈秀山的分析框架为基础,从六个方面分析了扩大差距的原因。在生产要素方面,东部地区商品经济意识强,在地理上靠近沿海,有着便利的运输优势,吸引内资和外资能力均较强。而且资本在使用上风险小,回报率较其它地区高,因此充足的资本促进了东部地区经济的高速增长。另外,东部地区工资高、待遇好,内地劳动力也被吸引到沿海地区,使得中西部地区缺乏技术人才和富有创新精神的企业家,在发展中处于落后。由于资本和劳动力的优势,东部制造发达,引进和吸收技术的能力比内地强,技术创新的步伐也快于中西部地区,因此要素的优势就使得东部已经处于遥遥领先的地位。在产业结构方面,东部第二、三产业发展速度较快,而中西部地区国有企业比重过大,产业结构严重不合理,重复建设严重。在地理区位方面,东部毗邻沿海,享有对外开放的优势和廉价的运输成本,而且东部气候适宜农作物生长和居住,这也是造成差距扩大的原因。在政策和体制方面,东部地区商品意识强,市场化进程比较快,国家给予的优惠政策多,而中西部地区国有企业比重大,思想保守封闭,享受的优惠政策少,这是拉大差距的一个不可忽视的重要原因。
人口、城市化对经济增长影响的分析长期以来被忽视,本文运用计量经济学中Johansen协整检验和葛兰杰因果检验等前沿分析方法,分析了各省人口、城市化进程对经济增长的影响。在分析中,对人口变量分解为人口数量和质量,协整分析结果显示,对于大多数省份来说,人口质量对经济发达省份经济增长贡献越大,人口数量对人口大省经济增长阻碍作用越明显。葛兰杰因果检验结果显示,除了少数省份外,经济增长普遍表现为人口数量增加的原因,而人口质量则促进了经济增长。通过对城市化与经济增长的实证分析结论得知,城市化水平对全国和东部经济增长的影响是正相关的,城市化本身不仅是经济发展的一个结果,实际上也是一个国家在发展过程当中保持经济发展势头的一个重要保证。
文章最后从加大产业结构调整、完善和深化经济体制改革、加强政策导向和对落后地区扶持、发展教育和提高人口素质、以增长极带动全国区域协调发展和加大中西部地区基础设施建设等六个方面提出了针对性的建议。
Since the reform and opening-up in 1978, the central government has adopted the strategy of preferential development of east, thus having made sizable effects. Within a healthy way fast at the speed of 10% for every year on average in national economy for over 20 years, the people’s living standards are improving constantly, the overall national strength is being strengthened constantly and the Chinese economic status in the world is being improved day by day too. However, China’s disequilibrium development strategy has brought quite a lot of drawbacks, having produced various contradictions and questions, and the enlargement of regional economy disparity is an outstanding problem. This paper has carried on real example analysis to the regional economy difference after China's reform and opening-up, have found out the main reason for influencing the regional economy difference of our country, and put forward the policy recommendations for structuring the harmonious society and narrowing the economic difference in every area,
In examining China’s the regional economy disparity regarding province grade as the unit, this paper have used many kinds of methods , such as coefficient of standard deviation, extremely bad , coefficient of variation, extreme value rate , Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient included in relative difference and absolute difference ,etc. the analysis result of real example shows, since 1978, the absolute difference of China has been showing a tendency to expand all the time , and the relative difference kept shrinking in the 1990s, expanded rapidly after the 1990s, slowing down to some extent in speed after 21st century. Through decomposing the Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient into three regions, the conclusion show that economic difference on the three regions widen gradually all the time since reform and opening-up, and the disparity inter-regions keeps shrinking. The impact of intra-regions on national overall regional economy difference is more remarkable than inter-regions, and the economic difference of the Eastern Province behaves outstandingly among them. Carrying on the resolving of Gini coefficient to per capita GDP in three industry, it is found that the secondary industry has been playing a role in expanding the difference to Gini coefficient all the time, primary industry and the secondary industry play a role in reducing overall uneven degree.
The reasons that lead in regional disparity are complicated. Based on Chen’s analysis frame, this paper is analyzed the reason for expanding disparity from six respects. In respect of factor, because the commodity economy consciousness in the eastern area is strong and there are convenient transportation advantages for nearing coast in geography, east area attracts more domestic-investment and the foreign capitals than others. And the capital is using in no danger and the payback is higher than other areas, so the sufficient capital promotes the high growth of the eastern regional economy. In addition, because the salary of eastern area is high and the treatment is good, the inland workforce is attracted to the coastal area too. The central and west regions lack technicians and entrepreneur rich in the initiative spirit, thus leading in backwardness in developing. Because of the advantage of the capital and workforce, the east region develops fast, and the ability to introduce and absorb technology is better than hinterland, the paces of technological innovation are faster than the central and west regions too, so the advantage of the key element makes the east already in the position of holding a safe lead. In industrial structure, the development speed of the secondary and tertiary industries of east region is very fast, but the state-owned enterprise of central and west regions is too big in specific gravity, so the industrial structure is unreasonable seriously and repeated construction is serious. In geographical position, for adjoining the coastal area in the east, enjoying the advantage opening to the outside world and low-priced transportation cost, the eastern climate is suitable for the crops to grow and people to live. This is the reason causing disparity to expand. In policy and system, because the business consciousness in the eastern area is strong, the market-based process is faster and preferential policy that country offer more, but the large proportion of state-owned enterprise of central and west regions, the thought is guarded and sealed and preferential policies enjoyed little, this is an important reason that can't be ignored for widening disparity.
The effect of population and urbanization on economic growth is ignored for a long time. This text uses econometrical Co-integration test and Granger causality test to examine the impact of the population and urbanization on economic growth in every province. In analyzing progress, the population variable is divided into the size of population and quality. Whole analysis result shows that population quality in most provinces contribute the larger to economic growth in the economically developed provinces, and the size of population hinders function from being the more obvious to economic growth in the more people province. The result of Granger causality tests show that the economic growth is generally shown as the reason why the size of population increases besides a few provinces and the population quality has completely promoted the economic growth. Through analyzing the impact of urbanization on economic growth, the results show the impact of urbanization on provincial economic growth of the urbanization is positive correlation. Urbanization is not only a result of economic development but also in fact an important insurance that a country solves the problem that one's own economy appears in the evolution too.
The article is put forward suggestion of pertinence in five respects, such as adjusting industrial structure, perfecting and deepening the economic system reform, strengthening the policy guidance and supporting the backward areas’development, developing education and improving the health of the people, using growth polar to promote coordinated national regional development etc.
在以省份为单元对我国区域经济差距的实证分析中,运用了计算相对差异和绝对差异的标准差、极差、变异系数、极值比率、基尼系数和锡尔系数等多种方法,实证分析结果显示,自1978年之后,中国的绝对差异一直呈扩大趋势,而相对差异在90年代以前一直在缩小,90年代之后迅速扩大,进入21世纪后扩大速度有所减缓。从对基尼系数和锡尔系数的三大地带分析结果来看,自改革开放以来东中西三大地带间经济差异一直在逐渐拉大,地带内的差距一直在缩小。地带间的差异对全国总体区域经济差异的影响较地带内差异更为显著,其中,东部省际经济差异表现突出。按产业对人均GDP进行基尼系数的分解,发现第二产业对基尼系数一直起着扩大差异的作用,而第一产业和第二产业则是起着降低总体不平衡程度的作用。
区域差距形成的原因是复杂的,本文以陈秀山的分析框架为基础,从六个方面分析了扩大差距的原因。在生产要素方面,东部地区商品经济意识强,在地理上靠近沿海,有着便利的运输优势,吸引内资和外资能力均较强。而且资本在使用上风险小,回报率较其它地区高,因此充足的资本促进了东部地区经济的高速增长。另外,东部地区工资高、待遇好,内地劳动力也被吸引到沿海地区,使得中西部地区缺乏技术人才和富有创新精神的企业家,在发展中处于落后。由于资本和劳动力的优势,东部制造发达,引进和吸收技术的能力比内地强,技术创新的步伐也快于中西部地区,因此要素的优势就使得东部已经处于遥遥领先的地位。在产业结构方面,东部第二、三产业发展速度较快,而中西部地区国有企业比重过大,产业结构严重不合理,重复建设严重。在地理区位方面,东部毗邻沿海,享有对外开放的优势和廉价的运输成本,而且东部气候适宜农作物生长和居住,这也是造成差距扩大的原因。在政策和体制方面,东部地区商品意识强,市场化进程比较快,国家给予的优惠政策多,而中西部地区国有企业比重大,思想保守封闭,享受的优惠政策少,这是拉大差距的一个不可忽视的重要原因。
人口、城市化对经济增长影响的分析长期以来被忽视,本文运用计量经济学中Johansen协整检验和葛兰杰因果检验等前沿分析方法,分析了各省人口、城市化进程对经济增长的影响。在分析中,对人口变量分解为人口数量和质量,协整分析结果显示,对于大多数省份来说,人口质量对经济发达省份经济增长贡献越大,人口数量对人口大省经济增长阻碍作用越明显。葛兰杰因果检验结果显示,除了少数省份外,经济增长普遍表现为人口数量增加的原因,而人口质量则促进了经济增长。通过对城市化与经济增长的实证分析结论得知,城市化水平对全国和东部经济增长的影响是正相关的,城市化本身不仅是经济发展的一个结果,实际上也是一个国家在发展过程当中保持经济发展势头的一个重要保证。
文章最后从加大产业结构调整、完善和深化经济体制改革、加强政策导向和对落后地区扶持、发展教育和提高人口素质、以增长极带动全国区域协调发展和加大中西部地区基础设施建设等六个方面提出了针对性的建议。
Since the reform and opening-up in 1978, the central government has adopted the strategy of preferential development of east, thus having made sizable effects. Within a healthy way fast at the speed of 10% for every year on average in national economy for over 20 years, the people’s living standards are improving constantly, the overall national strength is being strengthened constantly and the Chinese economic status in the world is being improved day by day too. However, China’s disequilibrium development strategy has brought quite a lot of drawbacks, having produced various contradictions and questions, and the enlargement of regional economy disparity is an outstanding problem. This paper has carried on real example analysis to the regional economy difference after China's reform and opening-up, have found out the main reason for influencing the regional economy difference of our country, and put forward the policy recommendations for structuring the harmonious society and narrowing the economic difference in every area,
In examining China’s the regional economy disparity regarding province grade as the unit, this paper have used many kinds of methods , such as coefficient of standard deviation, extremely bad , coefficient of variation, extreme value rate , Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient included in relative difference and absolute difference ,etc. the analysis result of real example shows, since 1978, the absolute difference of China has been showing a tendency to expand all the time , and the relative difference kept shrinking in the 1990s, expanded rapidly after the 1990s, slowing down to some extent in speed after 21st century. Through decomposing the Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient into three regions, the conclusion show that economic difference on the three regions widen gradually all the time since reform and opening-up, and the disparity inter-regions keeps shrinking. The impact of intra-regions on national overall regional economy difference is more remarkable than inter-regions, and the economic difference of the Eastern Province behaves outstandingly among them. Carrying on the resolving of Gini coefficient to per capita GDP in three industry, it is found that the secondary industry has been playing a role in expanding the difference to Gini coefficient all the time, primary industry and the secondary industry play a role in reducing overall uneven degree.
The reasons that lead in regional disparity are complicated. Based on Chen’s analysis frame, this paper is analyzed the reason for expanding disparity from six respects. In respect of factor, because the commodity economy consciousness in the eastern area is strong and there are convenient transportation advantages for nearing coast in geography, east area attracts more domestic-investment and the foreign capitals than others. And the capital is using in no danger and the payback is higher than other areas, so the sufficient capital promotes the high growth of the eastern regional economy. In addition, because the salary of eastern area is high and the treatment is good, the inland workforce is attracted to the coastal area too. The central and west regions lack technicians and entrepreneur rich in the initiative spirit, thus leading in backwardness in developing. Because of the advantage of the capital and workforce, the east region develops fast, and the ability to introduce and absorb technology is better than hinterland, the paces of technological innovation are faster than the central and west regions too, so the advantage of the key element makes the east already in the position of holding a safe lead. In industrial structure, the development speed of the secondary and tertiary industries of east region is very fast, but the state-owned enterprise of central and west regions is too big in specific gravity, so the industrial structure is unreasonable seriously and repeated construction is serious. In geographical position, for adjoining the coastal area in the east, enjoying the advantage opening to the outside world and low-priced transportation cost, the eastern climate is suitable for the crops to grow and people to live. This is the reason causing disparity to expand. In policy and system, because the business consciousness in the eastern area is strong, the market-based process is faster and preferential policy that country offer more, but the large proportion of state-owned enterprise of central and west regions, the thought is guarded and sealed and preferential policies enjoyed little, this is an important reason that can't be ignored for widening disparity.
The effect of population and urbanization on economic growth is ignored for a long time. This text uses econometrical Co-integration test and Granger causality test to examine the impact of the population and urbanization on economic growth in every province. In analyzing progress, the population variable is divided into the size of population and quality. Whole analysis result shows that population quality in most provinces contribute the larger to economic growth in the economically developed provinces, and the size of population hinders function from being the more obvious to economic growth in the more people province. The result of Granger causality tests show that the economic growth is generally shown as the reason why the size of population increases besides a few provinces and the population quality has completely promoted the economic growth. Through analyzing the impact of urbanization on economic growth, the results show the impact of urbanization on provincial economic growth of the urbanization is positive correlation. Urbanization is not only a result of economic development but also in fact an important insurance that a country solves the problem that one's own economy appears in the evolution too.
The article is put forward suggestion of pertinence in five respects, such as adjusting industrial structure, perfecting and deepening the economic system reform, strengthening the policy guidance and supporting the backward areas’development, developing education and improving the health of the people, using growth polar to promote coordinated national regional development etc.
引文
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