世界经济失衡下中国开放型经济发展模式研究
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摘要
自1978年改革开放以来,中国经济取得了骄人的成绩,经济持续增长,人均收入迅速提高,综合国力持续增强,一举成为全球第三大经济体。中国在如此短的时期内获得的巨大成就,在人类发展史上是少有的现象,中国独特的经济发展模式也因此而倍受关注。进入21世纪以来,日益严重的世界经济失衡一直影响各国的经济运行和经济政策的决策,在全球金融经济危机的冲击下,中国开放型经济发展模式受到了严峻的挑战。在此背景下,深入剖析中国开放型经济发展模式的内涵及运行机制,探讨这一模式的特征及存在的问题,研究中国开放型经济发展模式的转型升级策略,对于中国实现经济持续、稳定、快速增长,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本文运用发展经济学、宏观经济学及国际经济学的基本理论揭示了中国开放型经济发展模式的内涵、特征及其运行机制,阐明了全球经济失衡和国际金融危机对中国开放型经济发展模式冲击与挑战,通过经济学指标、计量经济学模型对中国开放型经济发展模式可持续性进行了实证研究,并在的基础上探讨了中国开放型经济发展模式转型升级的必要性和策略。在研究方法上,本文力图采用理论与实证相结合、定性与定量相结合的分析方法,综合运用经济学理论、统计学指标及计量经济学实证方法对中国开放型经济发展模式进行全面的研究。
本文从中国开放型经济发展模式包含的要素角度界定中国开放型经济发展模式的内涵,以中国开放型经济发展模式的主导要素(对外贸易和FDI)为主线,揭示中国开放型经济发展模式的运行机制。在此基础上,探讨中国开放型经济发展模式的特征与存在的问题,并分析全球金融危机对中国开放型经济发展模式的冲击与挑战。从中国经济与世界经济互动角度分析中国开放型经济发展模式与世界经济失衡之间的关系,运用经济学指标和VAR模式实证研究中国开放型经济发展模式的可持续性。通过以上研究探究造成中国开放型经济发展模式不可持续的根源,并在此基础上提出中国开放型经济发展模式的转型升级策略。
本文的主要结论：(1)中国开放型经济发展模式依次经历了确立阶段、发展阶段,进入了现今的深化阶段。(2)中国开放型经济发展模式是以外资引进和出口导向为双引擎,由资本、人力资源、知识、对外贸易、FDI和制度等多因素相互作用、相互融合、相互促进、相互依赖、相辅相成共同构成的完整体系。其中,对外贸易、FDI是中国开放型经济发展模式中起主导作用的要素,二者共同促进了国内外要素的整合,主导了国内经济增长。(3)中国经济发展模式对外影响世界经济运行及世界经济结构调整,中国对世界经济失衡负有一定的责任。(4)基于VAR模型的实证研究表明,当前的中国开放型经济发展模式难以为继,中国需要全面、系统地对开放型经济发展模式进行转型升级。
本文的主要创新点：(1)从中国开放型经济发展模式包含要素的角度界定中国开放型经济发展模式的内涵；以中国开放型经济发展模式的主导要素为主线揭示中国开放型经济发展模式的运行机制；通过对开放型经济发展模式特征的分析探讨推动中国经济增长的主要力量,并以此为参照选取变量对中国开放型经济发展模式的可持续性进行实证分析。(2)在世界经济失衡的背景下,从国内、国际两个视角研究中国开放型经济发展模式,从中国开放型经济发展模式的内在机制和外部环境两个方面探讨其可持续性问题。国内视角——在界定中国开放型经济发展模式内涵的基础上,探讨这一模式推动中国经济增长的作用机理,分析这一模式存在的问题,并通过实证研究这一模式推动中国经济增长的可持续性；国际视角——分析中国开放型经济发展模式(中国作为经济大国)对世界经济失衡的影响,及全球金融经济危机对中国开放型经济发展模式的挑战。(3)依据对中国开放型经济发展模式可持续性的论证结果,从导致中国开放型经济发展模式不可持续的源头着手,提出中国开放型经济发展模式转型升级的策略,即从进出口、内外需、内外资等角度全面系统地提出了中国开放型经济发展模式转型升级的对策。
Since 1978, China has made remarkable achievements in economy, and China has become the world's third-largest economy. It is a rare phenomenon in the history of human development that China obtained so great achievements in such a short period of time. China's unique economic development pattern has become the focus of attention. Entering the 21st century, the worsening imbalance of world economy has been influencing operation of economic and economic policy decision of world countries. China's development pattern of open-oriented economy has been challenged by the global financial crisis. It is important for China to achieve sustained, stable and rapid growth that study of the connotation, operational mechanism and transformation and upgrade of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy.
Using the theory of development economics, macroeconomics and international economics, the thesis reveals the connotation, features and operational mechanism of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and illustrates challenges from the global economic imbalances and the global financial crisis on China's development pattern of open-oriented economy. Based on these, the thesis discusses of the the necessity and strategy of the transformation and upgrading of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy. On research methods, this thesis seeks to use the combination of theoretical and empirical, qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis, the integration of economic theory, statistical indicators and econometric empirical method to conduct a comprehensive study on China's development pattern of open-oriented economy.
This thesis defines connotation of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy in terms of elements that belong to China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and then reveals operating mechanism of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy using the dominant elements which are foreign trade and foreign direct investment as the main line. Based on these, the thesis explores characteristics and existing problems of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and analysis impacts and challenges from the global financial crisis on China's development pattern of open-oriented economy. The thesis also analysis the relationship between China's development pattern of open-oriented economy and imbalance of world economy, and empirically studies on the sustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy using of economic indicators and VAR model. Through the above study, the thesis seeks the roots that cause the unsustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and puts forward strategy for transformation and upgrade of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy based on these.
The main conclusions of this thesis include four aspects. Firstly, China's development pattern of open-oriented economy has gone though establish stage and development stage, and go into the deepening stage now. Secondly, China's development pattern of open-oriented economy uses export and foreign investment as the twin-engine, and includes six elements that are the capital, human resources, knowledge, foreign trade, foreign direct investment and institution. These elements which integrating and reinforcing mutually constitute a complete system. Among them, foreign trade and foreign direct investment are the principle elements which play a leading role, they promote the joint and integration of elements of both at home and abroad, and lead the growth of domestic economy. Thirdly, China's development pattern of open-oriented economy affects operation and structure adjustment of world economy, and should bear some responsibility of imbalance of the world economy. Fourthly, based on empirical research by using VAR model, China's development pattern of open-oriented economy is unsustainable, so China's development pattern of open-oriented economy should restructure and upgrade.
The principal innovation of this thesis includes three aspects. Firstly, This thesis defines connotation of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy in terms of elements that belong to China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and reveals operating mechanism of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy using the dominant elements which are foreign trade and foreign direct investment as the main line. The thesis discovers the major forces that promote growth of China's economy through the analysis on the characteristics China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and then use it as reference to select the variables for empirical analysis on sustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy.
Secondly, under the background of imbalance of world economy, this thesis study of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy from domestic and international perspective, and explore sustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy from two aspects of its internal mechanism and external environment. From domestic perspective, the thesis explores the mechanism that China's development pattern of open-oriented economy promotes growth of China's economy on the basis of definition of this pattern, and analysis the problems of the pattern, then studies of the sustainability of this pattern through empirical methods. From international perspective, the thesis analysis the relationship between China's development pattern of open-oriented economy and the imbalance of the world economy, and the challenges on the pattern from the global financial crisis.
Thirdly, based on the results of empirical study of the sustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and the elements which lead to the pattern's unsustainability, the thesis puts forward the strategies of the pattern's transformation and upgrade. That is comprehensively and systematically putting forward the strategies of the pattern's transformation and upgrade from prospects of import and export, internal and external demands, and domestic and foreign capital.
本文运用发展经济学、宏观经济学及国际经济学的基本理论揭示了中国开放型经济发展模式的内涵、特征及其运行机制,阐明了全球经济失衡和国际金融危机对中国开放型经济发展模式冲击与挑战,通过经济学指标、计量经济学模型对中国开放型经济发展模式可持续性进行了实证研究,并在的基础上探讨了中国开放型经济发展模式转型升级的必要性和策略。在研究方法上,本文力图采用理论与实证相结合、定性与定量相结合的分析方法,综合运用经济学理论、统计学指标及计量经济学实证方法对中国开放型经济发展模式进行全面的研究。
本文从中国开放型经济发展模式包含的要素角度界定中国开放型经济发展模式的内涵,以中国开放型经济发展模式的主导要素(对外贸易和FDI)为主线,揭示中国开放型经济发展模式的运行机制。在此基础上,探讨中国开放型经济发展模式的特征与存在的问题,并分析全球金融危机对中国开放型经济发展模式的冲击与挑战。从中国经济与世界经济互动角度分析中国开放型经济发展模式与世界经济失衡之间的关系,运用经济学指标和VAR模式实证研究中国开放型经济发展模式的可持续性。通过以上研究探究造成中国开放型经济发展模式不可持续的根源,并在此基础上提出中国开放型经济发展模式的转型升级策略。
本文的主要结论：(1)中国开放型经济发展模式依次经历了确立阶段、发展阶段,进入了现今的深化阶段。(2)中国开放型经济发展模式是以外资引进和出口导向为双引擎,由资本、人力资源、知识、对外贸易、FDI和制度等多因素相互作用、相互融合、相互促进、相互依赖、相辅相成共同构成的完整体系。其中,对外贸易、FDI是中国开放型经济发展模式中起主导作用的要素,二者共同促进了国内外要素的整合,主导了国内经济增长。(3)中国经济发展模式对外影响世界经济运行及世界经济结构调整,中国对世界经济失衡负有一定的责任。(4)基于VAR模型的实证研究表明,当前的中国开放型经济发展模式难以为继,中国需要全面、系统地对开放型经济发展模式进行转型升级。
本文的主要创新点：(1)从中国开放型经济发展模式包含要素的角度界定中国开放型经济发展模式的内涵；以中国开放型经济发展模式的主导要素为主线揭示中国开放型经济发展模式的运行机制；通过对开放型经济发展模式特征的分析探讨推动中国经济增长的主要力量,并以此为参照选取变量对中国开放型经济发展模式的可持续性进行实证分析。(2)在世界经济失衡的背景下,从国内、国际两个视角研究中国开放型经济发展模式,从中国开放型经济发展模式的内在机制和外部环境两个方面探讨其可持续性问题。国内视角——在界定中国开放型经济发展模式内涵的基础上,探讨这一模式推动中国经济增长的作用机理,分析这一模式存在的问题,并通过实证研究这一模式推动中国经济增长的可持续性；国际视角——分析中国开放型经济发展模式(中国作为经济大国)对世界经济失衡的影响,及全球金融经济危机对中国开放型经济发展模式的挑战。(3)依据对中国开放型经济发展模式可持续性的论证结果,从导致中国开放型经济发展模式不可持续的源头着手,提出中国开放型经济发展模式转型升级的策略,即从进出口、内外需、内外资等角度全面系统地提出了中国开放型经济发展模式转型升级的对策。
Since 1978, China has made remarkable achievements in economy, and China has become the world's third-largest economy. It is a rare phenomenon in the history of human development that China obtained so great achievements in such a short period of time. China's unique economic development pattern has become the focus of attention. Entering the 21st century, the worsening imbalance of world economy has been influencing operation of economic and economic policy decision of world countries. China's development pattern of open-oriented economy has been challenged by the global financial crisis. It is important for China to achieve sustained, stable and rapid growth that study of the connotation, operational mechanism and transformation and upgrade of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy.
Using the theory of development economics, macroeconomics and international economics, the thesis reveals the connotation, features and operational mechanism of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and illustrates challenges from the global economic imbalances and the global financial crisis on China's development pattern of open-oriented economy. Based on these, the thesis discusses of the the necessity and strategy of the transformation and upgrading of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy. On research methods, this thesis seeks to use the combination of theoretical and empirical, qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis, the integration of economic theory, statistical indicators and econometric empirical method to conduct a comprehensive study on China's development pattern of open-oriented economy.
This thesis defines connotation of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy in terms of elements that belong to China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and then reveals operating mechanism of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy using the dominant elements which are foreign trade and foreign direct investment as the main line. Based on these, the thesis explores characteristics and existing problems of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and analysis impacts and challenges from the global financial crisis on China's development pattern of open-oriented economy. The thesis also analysis the relationship between China's development pattern of open-oriented economy and imbalance of world economy, and empirically studies on the sustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy using of economic indicators and VAR model. Through the above study, the thesis seeks the roots that cause the unsustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and puts forward strategy for transformation and upgrade of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy based on these.
The main conclusions of this thesis include four aspects. Firstly, China's development pattern of open-oriented economy has gone though establish stage and development stage, and go into the deepening stage now. Secondly, China's development pattern of open-oriented economy uses export and foreign investment as the twin-engine, and includes six elements that are the capital, human resources, knowledge, foreign trade, foreign direct investment and institution. These elements which integrating and reinforcing mutually constitute a complete system. Among them, foreign trade and foreign direct investment are the principle elements which play a leading role, they promote the joint and integration of elements of both at home and abroad, and lead the growth of domestic economy. Thirdly, China's development pattern of open-oriented economy affects operation and structure adjustment of world economy, and should bear some responsibility of imbalance of the world economy. Fourthly, based on empirical research by using VAR model, China's development pattern of open-oriented economy is unsustainable, so China's development pattern of open-oriented economy should restructure and upgrade.
The principal innovation of this thesis includes three aspects. Firstly, This thesis defines connotation of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy in terms of elements that belong to China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and reveals operating mechanism of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy using the dominant elements which are foreign trade and foreign direct investment as the main line. The thesis discovers the major forces that promote growth of China's economy through the analysis on the characteristics China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and then use it as reference to select the variables for empirical analysis on sustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy.
Secondly, under the background of imbalance of world economy, this thesis study of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy from domestic and international perspective, and explore sustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy from two aspects of its internal mechanism and external environment. From domestic perspective, the thesis explores the mechanism that China's development pattern of open-oriented economy promotes growth of China's economy on the basis of definition of this pattern, and analysis the problems of the pattern, then studies of the sustainability of this pattern through empirical methods. From international perspective, the thesis analysis the relationship between China's development pattern of open-oriented economy and the imbalance of the world economy, and the challenges on the pattern from the global financial crisis.
Thirdly, based on the results of empirical study of the sustainability of China's development pattern of open-oriented economy, and the elements which lead to the pattern's unsustainability, the thesis puts forward the strategies of the pattern's transformation and upgrade. That is comprehensively and systematically putting forward the strategies of the pattern's transformation and upgrade from prospects of import and export, internal and external demands, and domestic and foreign capital.
引文
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