中国苹果出口增长特征分析
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摘要
鲜苹果是中国加入WTO后为数不多的具有竞争力的农产品之一,鲜苹果出口对拉动农业经济和整个国民经济的发展发挥了重要作用。本文按照国际贸易理论与中国鲜苹果出口贸易实际相结合的思路,在借鉴已有研究成果及理论分析的基础上,运用统计分析为主的研究方法,通过分析1992～2008年间中国和世界主要鲜苹果出口国贸易额变化的详细数据,对中国鲜苹果出口贸易变化趋势进行研究,揭示其中的规律及主要特征。
论文主要研究内容及结论如下:
通过分析研究中国鲜苹果贸易的分布和演变特征,发现中国的鲜苹果出口呈现明显的波动中增长的趋势,并且这种波动具有明显的周期性。对中国苹果贸易集中程度的分析表明,中国鲜苹果出口的集中程度依然较高,不利于分散贸易风险。此外,采用对称性显对称比较优势指数(RSCA)法对中国鲜苹果出口的比较优势进行了研究,结果显示,与其他世界鲜苹果的主要出口国相比,中国鲜苹果出口的比较优势在逐渐丧失。
为进一步找出中国鲜苹果出口增长的影响因素,本文利用恒定市场份额(CMS)模型,从市场需求、出口竞争力、市场分布结构等三个方面对我国鲜苹果的出口增长进行因素分解,从而重点讨论我国鲜苹果出口贸易增长的源泉以及导致这种贸易格局的影响因素。CMS模型的分解结果显示,中国鲜苹果出口增长的主要原因可以归结为:加入世贸组织后中国鲜苹果的整体出口竞争力的提升以及中国鲜苹果主要出口市场的进口需求增速高于世界鲜苹果进口需求的一般增长速度。上述两种因素的交互作用,成为推动我国鲜苹果出口增加的最重要的源泉。另一方面,中国鲜苹果出口的主要目标市场与世界鲜苹果出口的主要目标市场并不一致。
中国鲜苹果出口市场集中在东亚和南亚国家这些不生产或很少生产苹果的国家,而世界鲜苹果的主要进口国家主要为德国、英国、俄罗斯、荷兰、加拿大,墨西哥、法国、美国等欧洲和北美国家。中国鲜苹果在这些国家的竞争力不够强,市场份额的增加程度低于平均水平。从长远来看,中国鲜苹果出口的这种市场格局不利于我国鲜苹果出口的进一步增长。
根据上述结论,本文提出改进我国鲜苹果出口贸易状况的对策与建议。
Fresh Apple is one of the few agricultural products that are of competitiveness after China’s entry into WTO, the fresh apple export plays an important role in stimulating agricultural economy and the development of entire national economy. This paper combines the international trade theories with the concrete practice of Chinese fresh apple export, and adopts the empirical research methodology which is based on theoretical and statistical analysis. It focuses on the research of the trend and main characteristics of Chinese fresh apple export by analyzing the data which shows the changing of fresh apple trade volume during the period 1992~2008 in China and other major fresh apple export countries.
The main research contents and arguments are as follows:
Analysis on distribution and evolution characteristics of Chinese fresh apple export reveals that Chinese fresh apple export appears an obvious trend of growing in fluctuation, and the fluctuation is of remarkable periodicity. Analysis on the trade concentration of Chinese fresh apple export indicate that the Chinese fresh apple export is still of high trade concentration, which is not good for spreading trade risk. Besides, research on the comparative advantage of Chinese fresh apple using RSCA indicator displays that, compared with other major exporting countries of fresh apple in the world, China is possibly losing its comparative advantage in fresh apple export.
In order to find out the factors influencing Chinese fresh apple export, this paper employs the model of Constant Market Share Analysis (CMS) to separate the factors in terms of market demand, export competitiveness, Market distribution structure and the interaction effect among each other, The discussion emphasizes the source of the export growth of Chinese fresh apple and the influencing factors which lead to the present trading situation of Chinese fresh apple. The results worked out by CMS model reveals that the export growth of Chinese fresh apple can be attributed to the improvement of the entire export competitiveness of Chinese fresh apple after entering WTO and the fact that the growth speed of importing demand from Chinese fresh apple’s major exporting markets is higher than the average growth speed of the world market. The interaction effect between above two factors works as the most important source for the growth of Chinese fresh apple export.
On the other hand, the main target export markets of Chinese fresh apple are not in conformity with that of the world. Chine fresh apple export markets concentrate on East Asia and South Asia countries which do not or seldom produce fresh apple, while the major importing countries of fresh apple are European and North American countries such as Germany, UK, Russia, Netherlands, Canada, Mexico, France and USA. The analyzing result by CMS model reveals that, the present market structure of Chinese fresh apple export is not good for further export growth. In the last some suggestions are made according to the above research results.
论文主要研究内容及结论如下:
通过分析研究中国鲜苹果贸易的分布和演变特征,发现中国的鲜苹果出口呈现明显的波动中增长的趋势,并且这种波动具有明显的周期性。对中国苹果贸易集中程度的分析表明,中国鲜苹果出口的集中程度依然较高,不利于分散贸易风险。此外,采用对称性显对称比较优势指数(RSCA)法对中国鲜苹果出口的比较优势进行了研究,结果显示,与其他世界鲜苹果的主要出口国相比,中国鲜苹果出口的比较优势在逐渐丧失。
为进一步找出中国鲜苹果出口增长的影响因素,本文利用恒定市场份额(CMS)模型,从市场需求、出口竞争力、市场分布结构等三个方面对我国鲜苹果的出口增长进行因素分解,从而重点讨论我国鲜苹果出口贸易增长的源泉以及导致这种贸易格局的影响因素。CMS模型的分解结果显示,中国鲜苹果出口增长的主要原因可以归结为:加入世贸组织后中国鲜苹果的整体出口竞争力的提升以及中国鲜苹果主要出口市场的进口需求增速高于世界鲜苹果进口需求的一般增长速度。上述两种因素的交互作用,成为推动我国鲜苹果出口增加的最重要的源泉。另一方面,中国鲜苹果出口的主要目标市场与世界鲜苹果出口的主要目标市场并不一致。
中国鲜苹果出口市场集中在东亚和南亚国家这些不生产或很少生产苹果的国家,而世界鲜苹果的主要进口国家主要为德国、英国、俄罗斯、荷兰、加拿大,墨西哥、法国、美国等欧洲和北美国家。中国鲜苹果在这些国家的竞争力不够强,市场份额的增加程度低于平均水平。从长远来看,中国鲜苹果出口的这种市场格局不利于我国鲜苹果出口的进一步增长。
根据上述结论,本文提出改进我国鲜苹果出口贸易状况的对策与建议。
Fresh Apple is one of the few agricultural products that are of competitiveness after China’s entry into WTO, the fresh apple export plays an important role in stimulating agricultural economy and the development of entire national economy. This paper combines the international trade theories with the concrete practice of Chinese fresh apple export, and adopts the empirical research methodology which is based on theoretical and statistical analysis. It focuses on the research of the trend and main characteristics of Chinese fresh apple export by analyzing the data which shows the changing of fresh apple trade volume during the period 1992~2008 in China and other major fresh apple export countries.
The main research contents and arguments are as follows:
Analysis on distribution and evolution characteristics of Chinese fresh apple export reveals that Chinese fresh apple export appears an obvious trend of growing in fluctuation, and the fluctuation is of remarkable periodicity. Analysis on the trade concentration of Chinese fresh apple export indicate that the Chinese fresh apple export is still of high trade concentration, which is not good for spreading trade risk. Besides, research on the comparative advantage of Chinese fresh apple using RSCA indicator displays that, compared with other major exporting countries of fresh apple in the world, China is possibly losing its comparative advantage in fresh apple export.
In order to find out the factors influencing Chinese fresh apple export, this paper employs the model of Constant Market Share Analysis (CMS) to separate the factors in terms of market demand, export competitiveness, Market distribution structure and the interaction effect among each other, The discussion emphasizes the source of the export growth of Chinese fresh apple and the influencing factors which lead to the present trading situation of Chinese fresh apple. The results worked out by CMS model reveals that the export growth of Chinese fresh apple can be attributed to the improvement of the entire export competitiveness of Chinese fresh apple after entering WTO and the fact that the growth speed of importing demand from Chinese fresh apple’s major exporting markets is higher than the average growth speed of the world market. The interaction effect between above two factors works as the most important source for the growth of Chinese fresh apple export.
On the other hand, the main target export markets of Chinese fresh apple are not in conformity with that of the world. Chine fresh apple export markets concentrate on East Asia and South Asia countries which do not or seldom produce fresh apple, while the major importing countries of fresh apple are European and North American countries such as Germany, UK, Russia, Netherlands, Canada, Mexico, France and USA. The analyzing result by CMS model reveals that, the present market structure of Chinese fresh apple export is not good for further export growth. In the last some suggestions are made according to the above research results.
引文
陈佳. 2007.河南苹果产品竞争力测定及影响因素分析.[硕士学位论文].郑州:河南农业大学
陈莹等. 2008.国内外苹果农药最大残留限量标准分析.农业质量标准, 2008(1): 21~23
董西明,张东光. 2005.分割平均法拟合二次曲线的两种具体形式.统计与决策, 2005(5): 121~122
耿晔强. 2008.巴西农产品出口我国市场的影响因素分析.国际贸易问题, 2008(11): 50~57
国际交流网. 2008.我国果品出口受绿色壁垒严重制约需多方克服. http://www.zjagri.gov.cn/html/ gjjl/foreignNewsView/20081215102191.html [2008-12-15]
韩明玉. 2008.年度苹果产业技术发展报告. http://www.henan-apple.com/Article/ShowInfo.asp? ID=6173
何树全. 2009.中国大米在日本市场的竞争地位研究.统计研究, 26(10): 56~61
霍尚一. 2008.中国水果出口贸易影响因素的实证分析.[博士学位论文].杭州:浙江大学
姜华东. 2007.中国市场经济条件下经济周期波动研究.河北经贸大学学报, 28(5): 1~6
李建平,罗其友.2002.我国畜产品比较优势和国际竞争力的实证分析.管理世界, 2002(1): 83~91
林凤. 2008.中国苹果国际贸易壁垒的消除和补贴政策运用研究.经济研究导刊, 32(13): 173~174
刘汉成,易法海. 2007.中国水果出口特征及国际竞争力分析.农业现代化研究, 28(4): 450~453
刘艳婷. 2007.浅析新国际贸易理论.当代经济, 2007(3): 62~63
柳青. 2009.由国家竞争优势理论看我国农业国际竞争力的提升途径.山西农业科学, 37(3):19~21
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秦泰. 2007.中国苹果汁国际竞争力研究.[博士学位论文].杨凌:西北农林科技大学
陕西省果业局. 2007.苹果生产与贸易指南.西安:陕西人民出版社: 20~35
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上海财经大学精品课程. 2008.国家显示性比较优势指数. http://course.shufe.edu.cn/course/gjmyx /dzjc/chapter2/4_1.htm
深圳大学经济学院. 2007.经济学的时代问题.北京:社会科学文献出版社: 355~361
帅传敏等. 2003.中国农产品国际竞争力的估计.管理世界, 2003(1): 97~103
孙笑丹. 2003.中国及其主要对手在日本农产品进口市场的竞争力.首都经济杂志, 2003(2): 26~29
孙笑丹. 2005.国际农产品贸易的动态结构增长研究.北京:经济科学出版社: 106~117
汤铎铎. 2007.三种频率选择滤波及其在中国的应用.数量经济技术经济研究, 24(9): 143~156
王长江. 2006.指数平滑法中平滑系数的选择研究.中北大学学报(自然科学版), 27(6):558~561
吴元作. 1995.竞争优势理论述评.世界经济研究, 1995(5):56~59
徐海晶,于冷. 2006.我国苹果出口贸易的实证分析.农业技术经济, 2006(2): 43~47
易丹辉. 2002.数据分析与EVIEWS应用.北京:中国统计出版社:102
尤建强,崔岩国. 2006.对我国水果进出口贸易的思考.国际贸易问题, 2006(6): 26~31
于海波. 2009.两岸间出口贸易增长的源泉分析.[硕士学位论文].长春:东北师范大学
张金昌. 2001.波特的国家竞争优势理论剖析.中国工业经济, 2001(9):53~58
张连城,韩蓓. 2006.中国潜在经济增长率分析-HP滤波平滑参数的选择及应用.经济与管理研究, 2009(3): 22~28
赵红霞. 2008.我国果蔬产品出口如何跨越日美绿色壁垒.商场现代化, 2008(1): 13~14
赵一夫等. 2005.我国农产品出口规模影响因素的实证分析.中国农业大学学报, 10(6): 100~104
郑有国. 2005.福建水果出口的面临的技术性面临的技术性贸易壁垒分析及对策.国际贸易问题, 2005(12): 56~61
左昊华,高博. 2005.针对显性比较优势指数中包含的国家干预因素的修正.生产力研究, 2005(7): 21~22
ADB research institute. 2002. Did East-Asian Developing Economies Lose Export Competitiveness in the Pre-Crisis 1990s? Assessing East-Asian Export Performance from 1980 to 1996. ADB Institute Research Paper Series, No.34
Anne C. C. 1999. Bananas: The“Green Gold”of the TNCs. http://www.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/ banana/Doc/Greengold.doc
D. K. Backus, P. J. Kehoe. 1992. International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles. The American Economic Review, 82(4): 864~888
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陈莹等. 2008.国内外苹果农药最大残留限量标准分析.农业质量标准, 2008(1): 21~23
董西明,张东光. 2005.分割平均法拟合二次曲线的两种具体形式.统计与决策, 2005(5): 121~122
耿晔强. 2008.巴西农产品出口我国市场的影响因素分析.国际贸易问题, 2008(11): 50~57
国际交流网. 2008.我国果品出口受绿色壁垒严重制约需多方克服. http://www.zjagri.gov.cn/html/ gjjl/foreignNewsView/20081215102191.html [2008-12-15]
韩明玉. 2008.年度苹果产业技术发展报告. http://www.henan-apple.com/Article/ShowInfo.asp? ID=6173
何树全. 2009.中国大米在日本市场的竞争地位研究.统计研究, 26(10): 56~61
霍尚一. 2008.中国水果出口贸易影响因素的实证分析.[博士学位论文].杭州:浙江大学
姜华东. 2007.中国市场经济条件下经济周期波动研究.河北经贸大学学报, 28(5): 1~6
李建平,罗其友.2002.我国畜产品比较优势和国际竞争力的实证分析.管理世界, 2002(1): 83~91
林凤. 2008.中国苹果国际贸易壁垒的消除和补贴政策运用研究.经济研究导刊, 32(13): 173~174
刘汉成,易法海. 2007.中国水果出口特征及国际竞争力分析.农业现代化研究, 28(4): 450~453
刘艳婷. 2007.浅析新国际贸易理论.当代经济, 2007(3): 62~63
柳青. 2009.由国家竞争优势理论看我国农业国际竞争力的提升途径.山西农业科学, 37(3):19~21
农业部种植业管理司. 2007.中国苹果产业发展报告(1995-2005).北京:中国农业出版社: 1~10
农业部种植业管理司. 2007.中国苹果产业发展报告(1995-2005).北京:中国农业出版社:10~135
秦泰. 2007.中国苹果汁国际竞争力研究.[博士学位论文].杨凌:西北农林科技大学
陕西省果业局. 2007.苹果生产与贸易指南.西安:陕西人民出版社: 20~35
陕西省果业局. 2007.苹果生产与贸易指南.西安:陕西人民出版社: 20~35
上海财经大学精品课程. 2008.国家显示性比较优势指数. http://course.shufe.edu.cn/course/gjmyx /dzjc/chapter2/4_1.htm
深圳大学经济学院. 2007.经济学的时代问题.北京:社会科学文献出版社: 355~361
帅传敏等. 2003.中国农产品国际竞争力的估计.管理世界, 2003(1): 97~103
孙笑丹. 2003.中国及其主要对手在日本农产品进口市场的竞争力.首都经济杂志, 2003(2): 26~29
孙笑丹. 2005.国际农产品贸易的动态结构增长研究.北京:经济科学出版社: 106~117
汤铎铎. 2007.三种频率选择滤波及其在中国的应用.数量经济技术经济研究, 24(9): 143~156
王长江. 2006.指数平滑法中平滑系数的选择研究.中北大学学报(自然科学版), 27(6):558~561
吴元作. 1995.竞争优势理论述评.世界经济研究, 1995(5):56~59
徐海晶,于冷. 2006.我国苹果出口贸易的实证分析.农业技术经济, 2006(2): 43~47
易丹辉. 2002.数据分析与EVIEWS应用.北京:中国统计出版社:102
尤建强,崔岩国. 2006.对我国水果进出口贸易的思考.国际贸易问题, 2006(6): 26~31
于海波. 2009.两岸间出口贸易增长的源泉分析.[硕士学位论文].长春:东北师范大学
张金昌. 2001.波特的国家竞争优势理论剖析.中国工业经济, 2001(9):53~58
张连城,韩蓓. 2006.中国潜在经济增长率分析-HP滤波平滑参数的选择及应用.经济与管理研究, 2009(3): 22~28
赵红霞. 2008.我国果蔬产品出口如何跨越日美绿色壁垒.商场现代化, 2008(1): 13~14
赵一夫等. 2005.我国农产品出口规模影响因素的实证分析.中国农业大学学报, 10(6): 100~104
郑有国. 2005.福建水果出口的面临的技术性面临的技术性贸易壁垒分析及对策.国际贸易问题, 2005(12): 56~61
左昊华,高博. 2005.针对显性比较优势指数中包含的国家干预因素的修正.生产力研究, 2005(7): 21~22
ADB research institute. 2002. Did East-Asian Developing Economies Lose Export Competitiveness in the Pre-Crisis 1990s? Assessing East-Asian Export Performance from 1980 to 1996. ADB Institute Research Paper Series, No.34
Anne C. C. 1999. Bananas: The“Green Gold”of the TNCs. http://www.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/ banana/Doc/Greengold.doc
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