基于N-k故障的电力系统运行风险及脆弱性评估
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摘要
随着互联电网的发展和智能电网的兴起,现代电网在结构上变得愈发复杂错综。在这一背景下,近年来世界范围内大停电事件频繁发生,给社会造成了巨大的经济损失。而N-k故障作为大停电事故最关键的一个环节,对其给电网带来的影响进行全面评估具有十分重要的意义。鉴于此,本文针对电网N-k故障的风险及脆弱性评估等安全问题展开一系列的研究,主要工作归纳如下。
为了解决传统可靠性方法评估N-k故障时没有充分考虑电网运行工况不确定性的问题,建立了适用于N-k故障分析的元件可靠性模型。模型包括两大部分：一个是作为一次设备的输电线路停运模型,在计及多种停运因素影响的条件下,采用运行可靠性理论求解线路的停运概率；另一个是作为二次设备的隐性故障模型,充分考虑保护动作的逻辑关系,采用马尔科夫方法求解不同保护配置方案下的保护可靠性指标,在此基础上根据继电保护系统的构成和隐性故障的分类,提出隐性故障概率模型。所建模型实现了一次和二次设备模型的有机结合,从而为后续N-k故障的系统级分析奠定了理论基础。
针对传统的静态安全评估方法的不足之处,提出了一种基于N-k故障的输电系统运行风险评估算法。该算法根据电网的实时运行状况确定N-k故障的搜索流程,以保证搜索出来的故障路径合理有效；在分析保护隐性故障后果的基础上,根据运行风险理论,提出市场条件下输电系统的N-k故障运行风险评估方法及相关指标,从而将安全性和经济性较好地结合起来。算例分析表明,应用运行可靠性和运行风险的理论去评估N-k故障风险,能够如实表征电网的实际状况,具有一定的实用性。
为了研究大规模风电接入对电网大停电的影响,建立了风电场接入条件下的N-k故障风险评估模型。首先建立了基于风速预测的风电机组可靠性模型,将风电场的出力变化作为N-k故障的一个影响因素,模拟N-k故障的物理过程；从过负荷、低电压和失负荷的角度出发,基于效用理论建立N-k故障风险评估模型。以RTS79测试系统为例,详细分析了风电渗透率、风电并网方案以及风电随机性对N-k故障风险指标的影响,研究结果可为风电接入条件下的电网规划运行及防御大停电提供科学的理论参考。
针对运行风险指标只是一种相对性指标的问题,提出电力系统N-k故障的预警分级算法。该算法首先应用模糊C均值聚类及其修正方法对N-k故障概率进行分级,然后构建反映电网静态安全水平的故障严重度指标及其隶属函数集,通过模糊推理对综合严重度进行分级,并应用变异系数客观赋权的方法对严重度的模糊评判进行修正，最后将概率和严重度综合,根据模糊综合评判向量确定N-k故障风险预警的等级。算例结果表明,所建预警模型能通过模拟N-k故障对故障后电网运行状态的好坏作出有效的判断,从而为有关大停电安全预警方面的研究提供了有益的参考。
为研究大停电与电网脆弱性之间的关系,提出了基于N-k故障的电网脆弱性评估算法。该算法从静态安全角度出发建立N-k故障风险指标体系,应用层次分析法和熵权法得出N-k故障的总风险指标；将风险脆弱度与结构脆弱度结合,提出一种新的脆弱性指标用以量化分析针对N-k故障的电网脆弱性。将该方法应用在国内某一地区电网,指出其中的脆弱线路和节点。仿真分析表明：与单一考虑风险的脆弱度评估方法相比,考虑了结构重要度的风险脆弱性评估的准确度更高,评估结果对电网监控亦更有意义。
With the development of interconnected grid and the rise of smart grid, the structure of the modern grid has become increasingly complicated. In this background, worldwide blackouts occured frequently in recent years, causing huge economic losses to society. As N-k contingency is one of the most critical parts of blackout, it is extremely significant to conduct a comprehensive assessment of its impact on the grid. In view of this, a series of researchs are carried out in this dissertation, focusing on several security issues of N-k contingency risk and vulnerability assessment. The main works are summarized as follows.
The uncertainty of the grid operating conditions is not fully considered in N-k contingency assessment via traditional reliability. In order to solve this problem, component reliability models applicable to N-k contingency are established, which include two parts:one is outage model of transmission line as primary equipment. Operational reliability theory is introduced to obtain outage probability of line, taking various outage factors into account. The other one is hidden failure model of protection as secondary equipments. Markov method is introduced to obtain reliability indexes under different proctection configurations, taking logic relationship of proctection action into account. On that basis, the probability model of hidden failure is proposed according to the composition of relay protection system and hidden failure classification. The proposed models lay a theoretical foundation for subsequent system-level analysis of N-k contingency, combining primary and secondary equipment model together.
In view of the deficiency in traditional static security assessment method, an operational risk assessment algorithm for transmission system based on N-k contingency is put forward. The search process of N-k contingency is determined in accrodance with the real-time operational status of grid, to ensure that contingency paths seached out are reasonable and effective. Based on the analysis of hidden failure consequences, the risk assessment method and related indexes of N-k contingency for transmission system are further proposed under market conditions by means of operational risk theory, achieving a good combination of security and economy. The example analysis indicates that N-k contingency risk assessment applying operational reliability and risk theory can reflect the state of power system accurately and verifies the practicality of the proposed algorithm.
In order to study the impact of large-scale wind power on grid blackout, the risk assessment model for N-k contingency considering wind farms integration is formulated. The reliability model of wind turbines is established firstly based on wind speed prediction. The output variation of wind farm is considered as an influence in simulatiorr of N-k contingency process. From the perspective of overload, low-voltage and load-loss, N-k contingency risk assessment model is established on the basis of Utility Theory and importance factors. Taking IEEE-RTS79system as an example, the impacts of wind power penetration, integration schemes and wind randomness on N-k contingency risk indexes are analyzed in detail. The results will provide scientific reference of planning, operation and blackouts defence for grid integrated with wind farms.
With regard to the relativity of operational risk indexes, the forewarning classification algorithm for N-k contingency is proposed. N-k contingency probability levels are classified at first, based on Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) Cluster and correcting method. Then the indexes and membership function sets of failure severity reflecting static security level of grid are defined, and comprehensive severity is classified via fuzzy reasoning and objective weighting of variation coefficient. At last, forewarning levels of N-k contingency risk are evaluated according to fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector, with combination of probability and severity. The example results indicate that the forewarning model can make effective judgement on the operational state of grid following failure through N-k contingency simulation, and provide beneficial references for blackout forewarning research.
For the purpose of illustrating the relationship between blackouts and grid vulnerability, the algorithm of grid vulnerability assessment based on N-k contingency is presented. A risk indexes system for N-k contingency is set up from the perspective of static security. And a composite risk index for N-k contingency is obtained by application of the entropy and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to vulnerability functions of risk and structure, a new vulnerability index is proposed for the quantitative analysis of grid vulnerability concering N-k contingency. Taking a district grid in China for example, the vulnerable buses and lines in it are identified. The example analysis demonstrates that, compared with the vulnerability evaluation method considering risk only, the method considering risk as well as structure vulnerability achieves higher precision and its result is more instructive for power grid monitoring.
为了解决传统可靠性方法评估N-k故障时没有充分考虑电网运行工况不确定性的问题,建立了适用于N-k故障分析的元件可靠性模型。模型包括两大部分：一个是作为一次设备的输电线路停运模型,在计及多种停运因素影响的条件下,采用运行可靠性理论求解线路的停运概率；另一个是作为二次设备的隐性故障模型,充分考虑保护动作的逻辑关系,采用马尔科夫方法求解不同保护配置方案下的保护可靠性指标,在此基础上根据继电保护系统的构成和隐性故障的分类,提出隐性故障概率模型。所建模型实现了一次和二次设备模型的有机结合,从而为后续N-k故障的系统级分析奠定了理论基础。
针对传统的静态安全评估方法的不足之处,提出了一种基于N-k故障的输电系统运行风险评估算法。该算法根据电网的实时运行状况确定N-k故障的搜索流程,以保证搜索出来的故障路径合理有效；在分析保护隐性故障后果的基础上,根据运行风险理论,提出市场条件下输电系统的N-k故障运行风险评估方法及相关指标,从而将安全性和经济性较好地结合起来。算例分析表明,应用运行可靠性和运行风险的理论去评估N-k故障风险,能够如实表征电网的实际状况,具有一定的实用性。
为了研究大规模风电接入对电网大停电的影响,建立了风电场接入条件下的N-k故障风险评估模型。首先建立了基于风速预测的风电机组可靠性模型,将风电场的出力变化作为N-k故障的一个影响因素,模拟N-k故障的物理过程；从过负荷、低电压和失负荷的角度出发,基于效用理论建立N-k故障风险评估模型。以RTS79测试系统为例,详细分析了风电渗透率、风电并网方案以及风电随机性对N-k故障风险指标的影响,研究结果可为风电接入条件下的电网规划运行及防御大停电提供科学的理论参考。
针对运行风险指标只是一种相对性指标的问题,提出电力系统N-k故障的预警分级算法。该算法首先应用模糊C均值聚类及其修正方法对N-k故障概率进行分级,然后构建反映电网静态安全水平的故障严重度指标及其隶属函数集,通过模糊推理对综合严重度进行分级,并应用变异系数客观赋权的方法对严重度的模糊评判进行修正，最后将概率和严重度综合,根据模糊综合评判向量确定N-k故障风险预警的等级。算例结果表明,所建预警模型能通过模拟N-k故障对故障后电网运行状态的好坏作出有效的判断,从而为有关大停电安全预警方面的研究提供了有益的参考。
为研究大停电与电网脆弱性之间的关系,提出了基于N-k故障的电网脆弱性评估算法。该算法从静态安全角度出发建立N-k故障风险指标体系,应用层次分析法和熵权法得出N-k故障的总风险指标；将风险脆弱度与结构脆弱度结合,提出一种新的脆弱性指标用以量化分析针对N-k故障的电网脆弱性。将该方法应用在国内某一地区电网,指出其中的脆弱线路和节点。仿真分析表明：与单一考虑风险的脆弱度评估方法相比,考虑了结构重要度的风险脆弱性评估的准确度更高,评估结果对电网监控亦更有意义。
With the development of interconnected grid and the rise of smart grid, the structure of the modern grid has become increasingly complicated. In this background, worldwide blackouts occured frequently in recent years, causing huge economic losses to society. As N-k contingency is one of the most critical parts of blackout, it is extremely significant to conduct a comprehensive assessment of its impact on the grid. In view of this, a series of researchs are carried out in this dissertation, focusing on several security issues of N-k contingency risk and vulnerability assessment. The main works are summarized as follows.
The uncertainty of the grid operating conditions is not fully considered in N-k contingency assessment via traditional reliability. In order to solve this problem, component reliability models applicable to N-k contingency are established, which include two parts:one is outage model of transmission line as primary equipment. Operational reliability theory is introduced to obtain outage probability of line, taking various outage factors into account. The other one is hidden failure model of protection as secondary equipments. Markov method is introduced to obtain reliability indexes under different proctection configurations, taking logic relationship of proctection action into account. On that basis, the probability model of hidden failure is proposed according to the composition of relay protection system and hidden failure classification. The proposed models lay a theoretical foundation for subsequent system-level analysis of N-k contingency, combining primary and secondary equipment model together.
In view of the deficiency in traditional static security assessment method, an operational risk assessment algorithm for transmission system based on N-k contingency is put forward. The search process of N-k contingency is determined in accrodance with the real-time operational status of grid, to ensure that contingency paths seached out are reasonable and effective. Based on the analysis of hidden failure consequences, the risk assessment method and related indexes of N-k contingency for transmission system are further proposed under market conditions by means of operational risk theory, achieving a good combination of security and economy. The example analysis indicates that N-k contingency risk assessment applying operational reliability and risk theory can reflect the state of power system accurately and verifies the practicality of the proposed algorithm.
In order to study the impact of large-scale wind power on grid blackout, the risk assessment model for N-k contingency considering wind farms integration is formulated. The reliability model of wind turbines is established firstly based on wind speed prediction. The output variation of wind farm is considered as an influence in simulatiorr of N-k contingency process. From the perspective of overload, low-voltage and load-loss, N-k contingency risk assessment model is established on the basis of Utility Theory and importance factors. Taking IEEE-RTS79system as an example, the impacts of wind power penetration, integration schemes and wind randomness on N-k contingency risk indexes are analyzed in detail. The results will provide scientific reference of planning, operation and blackouts defence for grid integrated with wind farms.
With regard to the relativity of operational risk indexes, the forewarning classification algorithm for N-k contingency is proposed. N-k contingency probability levels are classified at first, based on Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) Cluster and correcting method. Then the indexes and membership function sets of failure severity reflecting static security level of grid are defined, and comprehensive severity is classified via fuzzy reasoning and objective weighting of variation coefficient. At last, forewarning levels of N-k contingency risk are evaluated according to fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector, with combination of probability and severity. The example results indicate that the forewarning model can make effective judgement on the operational state of grid following failure through N-k contingency simulation, and provide beneficial references for blackout forewarning research.
For the purpose of illustrating the relationship between blackouts and grid vulnerability, the algorithm of grid vulnerability assessment based on N-k contingency is presented. A risk indexes system for N-k contingency is set up from the perspective of static security. And a composite risk index for N-k contingency is obtained by application of the entropy and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to vulnerability functions of risk and structure, a new vulnerability index is proposed for the quantitative analysis of grid vulnerability concering N-k contingency. Taking a district grid in China for example, the vulnerable buses and lines in it are identified. The example analysis demonstrates that, compared with the vulnerability evaluation method considering risk only, the method considering risk as well as structure vulnerability achieves higher precision and its result is more instructive for power grid monitoring.
引文
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