空中交通管制安全风险预警决策模式及方法研究
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摘要
随着我国航空运输业呈现出的高速发展态势,空中交通流量持续增长,空域环境日益复杂,航空“安全第一”的行业特点对空中交通管制提出了更高的要求。空中交通管制系统对风险管理的需求已经从“事后处理”发展到“事前预防”阶段,由经验管理转向系统安全风险预警管理阶段。由于空管系统的安全风险涉及到人、设备、环境、管理等方面,风险源日趋增多,风险的形成也日益复杂。因此,加强对空管安全风险预警决策模式及方法的研究,有助于进一步明确决策的任务和程序,优化预警的效能,提高风险决策的水平。本论文综合运用现代风险管理理论、安全科学、复杂科学、系统论、故障诊断理论、决策理论、组织理论等相关学科的理论和方法,将多学科的学术前沿内容有机地交叉融合在一起,具有研究价值。
全文由八大部分组成：
第一部分说明了本文的研究背景及选题的来源,明确了研究目标和研究意义,在国内外相关研究综述的基础上,确定了研究的内容及方法；
第二部分在阐述空管安全风险类型和特征,归纳、比较预警及决策模式类型及特点的基础上,从预警决策范式的角度,对空管安全风险预警决策模式的内涵作出了界定,并对空管安全风险预警决策的功能、类型及方法体系等进行了概述；
第三部分重点研究了基于预测的空管安全风险预警决策模式,对空管安全风险预警决策模式的任务、原理、步骤及运行模式进行了阐述,在此基础之上运用灰色预测模型、人工神经网络回归预测模型及谱分析技术,对空管安全风险的信息发布决策进行了分析；
第四部分系统梳理了空管安全风险评估预警决策模式的内涵,针对评估诊断预警决策中的困境,从虚警防范的角度,指出指标中信息冗余的消减、决策器的选择及风险阈值的合理确定是评估诊断预警决策模式的主要任务,并利用粗糙集、灰色聚类评估及最优分割算法对三类决策任务进行了算例分析；
第五部分在详细阐述空管安全风险情景预警决策模式的基础上,运用系统动力学对空管安全风险进行了针对未来的趋势预测及预控策略优选的仿真分析,并根据专家知识在预警决策中的重要作用,利用特征根群决策方法进行了预控方案优选的算例研究；
第六部分在问卷调查及访谈调研的基础上,对空管安全风险预警决策实施的关键影响要素进行了假设,并利用结构方程模型对空管安全风险预警决策的主导因子进行了验证性分析；
第七部分根据空管安全风险各预警决策模式的任务类型及预警决策实施的主导因子,从组织保障、机制保障及开发预警决策支持系统的信息技术保障三个方面初步阐述了空管安全风险预警决策实施的保障策略；
第八部分对全文进行了总结,归纳了本文的主要创新点,并对空管安全风险预警决策模式、预警决策的方法及预警决策实施的保障策略体系的后期研究进行了展望。
The civil aviation industry in our country presents the high speed development state, air traffic flow sustained growth, airspace environment increasingly complex, aviation industry characteristics of "safety first" put forward higher request to the air traffic control, however, bottlenecks effect of our country air traffic control service support capacity is becoming more and more serious, if cannot be effectively improve ATC safety level, there will be an increasing number of civil aviation accidents and signs.
The requirements of air traffic control system for risk management have from "after process" to "prevention" stage, from experience management to system safety risk early warning management stage. Due to safety risk of ATC system involved in terms of people, equipment, environment, management, sources of risk is increasing, and the formation of the risk is increasingly complex. Therefore, to strengthen the research of ATC safety risk early warning decision model and method, it can help to further optimize the efficiency of early risk warning and improve the level of risk decision. This dissertation integrated using the modern risk management theory, safety science and complex science theory, system theory, fault diagnosis theory, decision-making theory and other related disciplines theory and method, through the multidisciplinary academic frontier content cross together, has an important research value. The whole dissertation is composed of8parts as follows:
The first part describes the research background and topics of the sources, clear research objectives and research significance, identified the content and methods based on the review of research at home and abroad;
The second part expounds the ATC safety risk types and features, on the basis of induction and comparison types and features of the early warning and decision model, made defined the connotation of ATC safety risk early warning decision and the decision model, and summary the functions, types and method system to ate safety risk early warning decision;
The third part focus on the study of ATC safety risk early warning prediction decision model, based on discussing task, principle, procedure and the operation mode of ATC safety risk early warning decision model, appling the grey prediction model, artificial neural network predictive regression model and spectrum analysis technology to system analysis ATC safety risk decision-making information release;
The fourth part system combed the connotation of safety risk assessment warning decision, aiming at the dilemma on evaluation diagnosis early warning decision, from the point of view of guard against false alarm, it points out that the index of information redundancy reduction, decision device selection and risk threshold value of the reasonable determination is the main task of the early warning evaluation decision model, and using rough set, gray clustering evaluation and optimal segmentation algorithm to being calculated and analysed for three types of decision task;
The fifth part on the basis of situation the safety risk early warning decision model in detail, using system dynamics to process the simulation analysis of safety risk trend prediction and precontrol strategy optimization, and in the light of the important role of expert knowledge for early warning decision, making use of the characteristic root group decision making method to do the example research on precontrolled plan optimization;
The sixth part on the basis of the questionnaire survey and interview research, put on the key influence factor hypothesis of the implementation to ATC safety risk early warning decision, and by using structural equation model to make confirmatory analysis for the main factors on ATC safety risk early warning decision;
The seventh part according to the task type of ATC safety risk early warning decision model and the dominant factor of implementation early warning decision, from the three aspects of assurance of organization, guarantee mechanism and development early warning decision support system, expounded the security strategy of the implementation of safety risk early warning decision;
The eighth part summarizes the full text, sums up the main innovation point in this dissertation, and prospects the later research to early warning decision model, early warning decision method and the security strategy system.
全文由八大部分组成：
第一部分说明了本文的研究背景及选题的来源,明确了研究目标和研究意义,在国内外相关研究综述的基础上,确定了研究的内容及方法；
第二部分在阐述空管安全风险类型和特征,归纳、比较预警及决策模式类型及特点的基础上,从预警决策范式的角度,对空管安全风险预警决策模式的内涵作出了界定,并对空管安全风险预警决策的功能、类型及方法体系等进行了概述；
第三部分重点研究了基于预测的空管安全风险预警决策模式,对空管安全风险预警决策模式的任务、原理、步骤及运行模式进行了阐述,在此基础之上运用灰色预测模型、人工神经网络回归预测模型及谱分析技术,对空管安全风险的信息发布决策进行了分析；
第四部分系统梳理了空管安全风险评估预警决策模式的内涵,针对评估诊断预警决策中的困境,从虚警防范的角度,指出指标中信息冗余的消减、决策器的选择及风险阈值的合理确定是评估诊断预警决策模式的主要任务,并利用粗糙集、灰色聚类评估及最优分割算法对三类决策任务进行了算例分析；
第五部分在详细阐述空管安全风险情景预警决策模式的基础上,运用系统动力学对空管安全风险进行了针对未来的趋势预测及预控策略优选的仿真分析,并根据专家知识在预警决策中的重要作用,利用特征根群决策方法进行了预控方案优选的算例研究；
第六部分在问卷调查及访谈调研的基础上,对空管安全风险预警决策实施的关键影响要素进行了假设,并利用结构方程模型对空管安全风险预警决策的主导因子进行了验证性分析；
第七部分根据空管安全风险各预警决策模式的任务类型及预警决策实施的主导因子,从组织保障、机制保障及开发预警决策支持系统的信息技术保障三个方面初步阐述了空管安全风险预警决策实施的保障策略；
第八部分对全文进行了总结,归纳了本文的主要创新点,并对空管安全风险预警决策模式、预警决策的方法及预警决策实施的保障策略体系的后期研究进行了展望。
The civil aviation industry in our country presents the high speed development state, air traffic flow sustained growth, airspace environment increasingly complex, aviation industry characteristics of "safety first" put forward higher request to the air traffic control, however, bottlenecks effect of our country air traffic control service support capacity is becoming more and more serious, if cannot be effectively improve ATC safety level, there will be an increasing number of civil aviation accidents and signs.
The requirements of air traffic control system for risk management have from "after process" to "prevention" stage, from experience management to system safety risk early warning management stage. Due to safety risk of ATC system involved in terms of people, equipment, environment, management, sources of risk is increasing, and the formation of the risk is increasingly complex. Therefore, to strengthen the research of ATC safety risk early warning decision model and method, it can help to further optimize the efficiency of early risk warning and improve the level of risk decision. This dissertation integrated using the modern risk management theory, safety science and complex science theory, system theory, fault diagnosis theory, decision-making theory and other related disciplines theory and method, through the multidisciplinary academic frontier content cross together, has an important research value. The whole dissertation is composed of8parts as follows:
The first part describes the research background and topics of the sources, clear research objectives and research significance, identified the content and methods based on the review of research at home and abroad;
The second part expounds the ATC safety risk types and features, on the basis of induction and comparison types and features of the early warning and decision model, made defined the connotation of ATC safety risk early warning decision and the decision model, and summary the functions, types and method system to ate safety risk early warning decision;
The third part focus on the study of ATC safety risk early warning prediction decision model, based on discussing task, principle, procedure and the operation mode of ATC safety risk early warning decision model, appling the grey prediction model, artificial neural network predictive regression model and spectrum analysis technology to system analysis ATC safety risk decision-making information release;
The fourth part system combed the connotation of safety risk assessment warning decision, aiming at the dilemma on evaluation diagnosis early warning decision, from the point of view of guard against false alarm, it points out that the index of information redundancy reduction, decision device selection and risk threshold value of the reasonable determination is the main task of the early warning evaluation decision model, and using rough set, gray clustering evaluation and optimal segmentation algorithm to being calculated and analysed for three types of decision task;
The fifth part on the basis of situation the safety risk early warning decision model in detail, using system dynamics to process the simulation analysis of safety risk trend prediction and precontrol strategy optimization, and in the light of the important role of expert knowledge for early warning decision, making use of the characteristic root group decision making method to do the example research on precontrolled plan optimization;
The sixth part on the basis of the questionnaire survey and interview research, put on the key influence factor hypothesis of the implementation to ATC safety risk early warning decision, and by using structural equation model to make confirmatory analysis for the main factors on ATC safety risk early warning decision;
The seventh part according to the task type of ATC safety risk early warning decision model and the dominant factor of implementation early warning decision, from the three aspects of assurance of organization, guarantee mechanism and development early warning decision support system, expounded the security strategy of the implementation of safety risk early warning decision;
The eighth part summarizes the full text, sums up the main innovation point in this dissertation, and prospects the later research to early warning decision model, early warning decision method and the security strategy system.
引文
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