城市污水处理智能控制技术应用前景研究
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摘要
随着现代工业的飞速发展,我国城市水环境的污染越来越严重,而且城市污水处理厂的吨水耗电量远远高于发达国家,运行管理人员又多,运行管理和自动控制与国外相比存在较大的差距;最重要的是这不符合科学发展观的要求。污水处理过程具有多变量、非线性、时变性与随机性的特点,其控制过程十分复杂,采用传统的控制方法难以实现污水处理的实时控制,智能控制可以解决用传统方法难以解决的复杂系统的控制问题。然而,城市污水处理智能控制技术作为一项高新技术,具有技术发展和商业化前景不确定的特点,为投资决策带来很大的困难,因此,研究该技术的应用前景是至关重要的。
基于此,本文首先分析了城市污水处理智能控制技术国内外研究现状,提出采用技术成熟度分析该技术的应用前景,并分析了技术成熟度的国内外研究现状以及不足,采用主客观相结合的方法对其进行研究。
然后,以城市污水处理智能控制技术为例,对其成熟度进行具体分析。分为两部分:从客观角度对城市污水处理智能控制技术的成熟度进行分析,采用基于文献计量学的方法,包括文献类型变换法、Fisher–Pry模型法和关键词变换法确定该技术的成熟度;从主观角度对城市污水处理智能控制技术的成熟度进行分析,采用基于专家判断的结构方程模型,对评价指标体系进行优化,进一步完善技术成熟度的确定。基于以上分析,我国城市污水处理智能控制技术还未到达成熟,技术成熟度处于复苏期。
最后,针对城市污水处理智能控制技术的技术成熟度处于复苏期,制定相应的对策,完善了该技术的应用前景研究,为投资决策提供参考,也为技术成熟度的研究和高新技术应用前景的研究提供了一种思路。
With the rapid development of modern industry, urban water environmental pollution in China is getting worse, tons of water consumption in municipal wastewater treatment plants are much higher than developed countries, operating managers are too more, and there is a big gap of operation management and automatic control from foreign countries, the most important is that this does not meet the requirements of the scientific development concept. Since wastewater treatment process has the characteristics of multivariable, nonlinear, time-varying stochastic, and its control is complex. It is difficult to achieve real-time control of wastewater treatment with the traditional methods. Intelligent control can be used to solve control problems in the complex system, which is difficult to resolve by traditional methods. However, intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment as a high-tech, with the uncertain characteristics of technology development and commercialization prospects, it brings great difficulties for the investment decisions. Therefore, it is essential to study the prospects of technology.
Based on this, this paper analyzes the research status on intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment, make use of technology maturity to analyze the technology's prospects, as well as the research status and the lack of technology maturity, then proposes the research method of combination with objective and subjective.
Then, this paper takes intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment as an example, makes a concrete analysis of their maturity. There are two parts: (1) from an objective point, there are three methods based on bibliometric analysis, including document type transformation, key words transformation and Fisher-Pry model method; (2) from a subjective point, using structural equation model based on expert judgments to optimize the evaluation index system, to further improve the determination of technology maturity. Based on the above analysis, intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment does not reach maturity, which is in the stage of technical maturity recovery.
Finally, for intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment being in the stage of technical maturity recovery, this paper makes the development countermeasures, further complete the research of technology prospect, which provide a reference for investment decisions, but also provides a new method for the determination of technology maturity and the research of high-tech prospects.
基于此,本文首先分析了城市污水处理智能控制技术国内外研究现状,提出采用技术成熟度分析该技术的应用前景,并分析了技术成熟度的国内外研究现状以及不足,采用主客观相结合的方法对其进行研究。
然后,以城市污水处理智能控制技术为例,对其成熟度进行具体分析。分为两部分:从客观角度对城市污水处理智能控制技术的成熟度进行分析,采用基于文献计量学的方法,包括文献类型变换法、Fisher–Pry模型法和关键词变换法确定该技术的成熟度;从主观角度对城市污水处理智能控制技术的成熟度进行分析,采用基于专家判断的结构方程模型,对评价指标体系进行优化,进一步完善技术成熟度的确定。基于以上分析,我国城市污水处理智能控制技术还未到达成熟,技术成熟度处于复苏期。
最后,针对城市污水处理智能控制技术的技术成熟度处于复苏期,制定相应的对策,完善了该技术的应用前景研究,为投资决策提供参考,也为技术成熟度的研究和高新技术应用前景的研究提供了一种思路。
With the rapid development of modern industry, urban water environmental pollution in China is getting worse, tons of water consumption in municipal wastewater treatment plants are much higher than developed countries, operating managers are too more, and there is a big gap of operation management and automatic control from foreign countries, the most important is that this does not meet the requirements of the scientific development concept. Since wastewater treatment process has the characteristics of multivariable, nonlinear, time-varying stochastic, and its control is complex. It is difficult to achieve real-time control of wastewater treatment with the traditional methods. Intelligent control can be used to solve control problems in the complex system, which is difficult to resolve by traditional methods. However, intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment as a high-tech, with the uncertain characteristics of technology development and commercialization prospects, it brings great difficulties for the investment decisions. Therefore, it is essential to study the prospects of technology.
Based on this, this paper analyzes the research status on intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment, make use of technology maturity to analyze the technology's prospects, as well as the research status and the lack of technology maturity, then proposes the research method of combination with objective and subjective.
Then, this paper takes intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment as an example, makes a concrete analysis of their maturity. There are two parts: (1) from an objective point, there are three methods based on bibliometric analysis, including document type transformation, key words transformation and Fisher-Pry model method; (2) from a subjective point, using structural equation model based on expert judgments to optimize the evaluation index system, to further improve the determination of technology maturity. Based on the above analysis, intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment does not reach maturity, which is in the stage of technical maturity recovery.
Finally, for intelligent control technology of municipal wastewater treatment being in the stage of technical maturity recovery, this paper makes the development countermeasures, further complete the research of technology prospect, which provide a reference for investment decisions, but also provides a new method for the determination of technology maturity and the research of high-tech prospects.
引文
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3 Meyer U H, Popel H J.Fuzzy-control for improved nitrogen re-moval and energy saving in WWW-plants with pre-denitrification.Water Science and Technology, 2003,47(11):69-76
4 Peng Yongzhen,ZengWei,Wang Shuying. DO concentration as a fuzzy control parameter for organic substrate removal in SBR processes.Environmental Engineering Science,2004,21 (5):606-616
5 Zeybek Z,Alpbaz M. Fuzzy-dynamic matrix pH control for treatment of dye wastewater plant: proceedings of Sixth International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Multimedia Applications.2005:118-223
6 Choi D j,Park H. A hybrid artificial neural network as a software sensor for optimal control of a wastewater treatment process.Water Research, 2001,35(16):3959-3967
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9 Hamed Maged M,Khalafallah Mona G, Hassanien Ezzat A. Prediction of wastewater treatment plant performance using artificialneural networks. Environmental Modelling and Software,2004,19(10):919-928
10 Tay Joo-Hwa, Zhang Xiyue. A fast predicting neural fuzzy model for high-rate anaerobic wastewater treatment systems. WaterResearch,2000, 34(11):2849-2860
11 Chen WC, Chang N B, Shieh W K. Advanced hybrid fuzzy-neural controller for industrial wastewater treatment. Journal of EnvironmentalEngineering,2001, 127(11):1048-1059
12 Bongards M, Ebel A, Hilmer T. Predictive control of wastewater works by neural networks: proceedings of the World Automation Congress. 2004,17:397-402
13施汉昌,王玉钰.污水处理厂故障诊断专家系统.给水排水,2001,27(8):88-90
14 Baeza Juan Antonio,Gabriel D,Lafuente J.Improving the nitrogen removal efficiency of A2/O based WWWTP by using anon-line knowledge based expert system. Water Research,2002,36(8):2109-2123
15 Lardon L,Punal A,Martinez J A. Modular expert system for the diagnosis of operatingconditions of industrial anaerobic digestion plants. Water Science and Technology,2005,52(1-2):427-433
16 Hong S W,Choi Y S, Kim S J,et al.Pilot-testing an alternative on-site wastewater treatment system for small communities and its automatic control. Water Science and Technology,2005,51(10):101-108
17蒋茹,曾光明.改进的遗传算法在城市污水处理厂区间数优化设计模型中的应用.安全与环境学报,2004,4(3):45-48
18 Doby T A , Lough lin D H. Optimization of activated sludge designs using genetic algorithms. Wat Sci&Tech,2002,45(6):187-198
19朱毅麟.开展技术成熟度研究.航天标准化,2008(2):12-14
20张换高.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测技术及其软件开发.河北工业大学硕士论文,2003(3):18-32
21吴贵生,王毅.技术创新管理.清华大学出版社,2009:193-196
22孙锐,李海刚,石金涛.能力成熟度模型在组织知识管理中的应用.研究与发展管理, 2008 (4): 66-67
23刘旭蓉,侯妍,艾克武.美英武器装备项目技术成熟度评估研究.装备指挥技术学院学报,2005(12):48-52
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26 Stephen Sottong,E-Book Technology Waiting for the“Falser”Pretender,Information Technology and Libraries,June 2001
27 Don Norman,The Life Cycle of a Technology Why It is so Difficult for Lagre Companies to innovate,http://www.jnd.org.
28 Michael W. Frauens. Improved Selection of Technically Attractive Projects Using Knowledge Management and Net Interactive Tools, thesis, MIT, 2000.6-9
29 Vladimir Petrov.Laws of Dialectics in Technology Evolution,2002.6,httP://www.triz-journal. Com
30 Gernot Mueller, M.D,President,Accurately and Rapidly Predicting Next-generation Product Breakthrough in The Medical-Devices,Disposable Shaving Systems,And cosmetic Industries,1999.3,httP://www.triz-Journal.com,Pl
31张换高,赵文燕.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测技术及其软件开发.中国机械工程,2006(8):823-827
32马苏常,刘学斌.基于TIRZ的技术成熟度预测研究及应用.天津工程师范学院学报.2007(9):15-18
33仇成,冯俊文等.基于TRIZ的产品成熟度判定研究.机电工程术.2007(36):32-34
34冯青.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测及其工具研究.国防科学技术大学硕士论文,2005(10):20-32
35刘玉琴,朱东华,吕琳.基于文本挖掘技术的产品技术成熟度预测.计算机集成制造系统.2008(3):506-510
36马庆国,汪蕾.科技成果成熟度的度量与科研开发的要素替.科学学研究.2000(12):25-28
37哈罗德.科兹纳.项目管理的战略规划:项目管理成熟度模型的应用.张增华,吕义怀译.北京:电子工业出版社.2002. 53-58
38 Project Management Solutions.Project Management Maturity Model[EB/OL].http:∥www.pmsolutions.com/maturity model/,2002
39 PMI.OPM3 Knowledge Foundation[M].Pennsylvania:PMI Publishing,2003. 21-28
40詹伟,邱菀华.项目管理成熟度模型及其应用研究.北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版).2007(3):18-21
41刘亚铮,秦占巧.基于灰色理论的项目管理成熟度模型探析.价值工程.2008(12)
126-128
42朱毅麟.航天器研制项目管理成熟度.航天器工程.2007(9):6-10
43林瑞跃,陈志平,凌宗平.组合DEA方法与成熟度模型对项目效益的评价.运筹与管理.2004(4):135-138
44赵林捷,汤书昆.一种新的技术创新管理工具——创新管理成熟度模型研究(IMMM).科学学与科学技术管理,2007(10):81-87
45祁延莉.知识管理成熟度模型初探——以西门子公司为例.情报理论与实践.2005(6):
570-573
46张凌欣,胡克瑾.基于COBIT4.1的IT治理成熟度定量评价方法.情报杂志.2008(11):149-152
47胡翠红.知识管理技术成熟度模型的研究.情报杂志.2006(8):67-68
48严仍荣,马玲.项目管理成熟度量化评估方法研究.皖西学院学报2004(10):105-109
49安茂春,王志健.国外技术成熟度评价方法及其应用.评价与管理.2008(6):1-3
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62于明亮,朱建国.光环曲线与XBRL成熟度研究,会计之友,2009(1):86-87
2 Murnleitner E,Matthias T,Delgado A.State detection and control of overloads in the anaerobic wastewater treatment using fuzzy logic.Water Research,2002,36(1): 201-211
3 Meyer U H, Popel H J.Fuzzy-control for improved nitrogen re-moval and energy saving in WWW-plants with pre-denitrification.Water Science and Technology, 2003,47(11):69-76
4 Peng Yongzhen,ZengWei,Wang Shuying. DO concentration as a fuzzy control parameter for organic substrate removal in SBR processes.Environmental Engineering Science,2004,21 (5):606-616
5 Zeybek Z,Alpbaz M. Fuzzy-dynamic matrix pH control for treatment of dye wastewater plant: proceedings of Sixth International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Multimedia Applications.2005:118-223
6 Choi D j,Park H. A hybrid artificial neural network as a software sensor for optimal control of a wastewater treatment process.Water Research, 2001,35(16):3959-3967
7郭劲松,龙腾锐.间歇曝气活性污泥系统神经网络水质模型.中国给水排水,2000,16(11):15-18
8冯玉强,潘启树.基于神经网络与专家系统结合的模型自动选择.哈尔滨工业大学学报,2001,33(1):24-27
9 Hamed Maged M,Khalafallah Mona G, Hassanien Ezzat A. Prediction of wastewater treatment plant performance using artificialneural networks. Environmental Modelling and Software,2004,19(10):919-928
10 Tay Joo-Hwa, Zhang Xiyue. A fast predicting neural fuzzy model for high-rate anaerobic wastewater treatment systems. WaterResearch,2000, 34(11):2849-2860
11 Chen WC, Chang N B, Shieh W K. Advanced hybrid fuzzy-neural controller for industrial wastewater treatment. Journal of EnvironmentalEngineering,2001, 127(11):1048-1059
12 Bongards M, Ebel A, Hilmer T. Predictive control of wastewater works by neural networks: proceedings of the World Automation Congress. 2004,17:397-402
13施汉昌,王玉钰.污水处理厂故障诊断专家系统.给水排水,2001,27(8):88-90
14 Baeza Juan Antonio,Gabriel D,Lafuente J.Improving the nitrogen removal efficiency of A2/O based WWWTP by using anon-line knowledge based expert system. Water Research,2002,36(8):2109-2123
15 Lardon L,Punal A,Martinez J A. Modular expert system for the diagnosis of operatingconditions of industrial anaerobic digestion plants. Water Science and Technology,2005,52(1-2):427-433
16 Hong S W,Choi Y S, Kim S J,et al.Pilot-testing an alternative on-site wastewater treatment system for small communities and its automatic control. Water Science and Technology,2005,51(10):101-108
17蒋茹,曾光明.改进的遗传算法在城市污水处理厂区间数优化设计模型中的应用.安全与环境学报,2004,4(3):45-48
18 Doby T A , Lough lin D H. Optimization of activated sludge designs using genetic algorithms. Wat Sci&Tech,2002,45(6):187-198
19朱毅麟.开展技术成熟度研究.航天标准化,2008(2):12-14
20张换高.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测技术及其软件开发.河北工业大学硕士论文,2003(3):18-32
21吴贵生,王毅.技术创新管理.清华大学出版社,2009:193-196
22孙锐,李海刚,石金涛.能力成熟度模型在组织知识管理中的应用.研究与发展管理, 2008 (4): 66-67
23刘旭蓉,侯妍,艾克武.美英武器装备项目技术成熟度评估研究.装备指挥技术学院学报,2005(12):48-52
24 GS.Altschulle, Creativity as an Exact Science,Privately retranslated by the Renaissance Leadership Institute,Center for TRIZ Development, 205-213
25 Don Norman.The Life Cycle of a Technology:Why It is so Difficult for Large ComPanies to innovate,http://www.jnd.ord.
26 Stephen Sottong,E-Book Technology Waiting for the“Falser”Pretender,Information Technology and Libraries,June 2001
27 Don Norman,The Life Cycle of a Technology Why It is so Difficult for Lagre Companies to innovate,http://www.jnd.org.
28 Michael W. Frauens. Improved Selection of Technically Attractive Projects Using Knowledge Management and Net Interactive Tools, thesis, MIT, 2000.6-9
29 Vladimir Petrov.Laws of Dialectics in Technology Evolution,2002.6,httP://www.triz-journal. Com
30 Gernot Mueller, M.D,President,Accurately and Rapidly Predicting Next-generation Product Breakthrough in The Medical-Devices,Disposable Shaving Systems,And cosmetic Industries,1999.3,httP://www.triz-Journal.com,Pl
31张换高,赵文燕.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测技术及其软件开发.中国机械工程,2006(8):823-827
32马苏常,刘学斌.基于TIRZ的技术成熟度预测研究及应用.天津工程师范学院学报.2007(9):15-18
33仇成,冯俊文等.基于TRIZ的产品成熟度判定研究.机电工程术.2007(36):32-34
34冯青.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测及其工具研究.国防科学技术大学硕士论文,2005(10):20-32
35刘玉琴,朱东华,吕琳.基于文本挖掘技术的产品技术成熟度预测.计算机集成制造系统.2008(3):506-510
36马庆国,汪蕾.科技成果成熟度的度量与科研开发的要素替.科学学研究.2000(12):25-28
37哈罗德.科兹纳.项目管理的战略规划:项目管理成熟度模型的应用.张增华,吕义怀译.北京:电子工业出版社.2002. 53-58
38 Project Management Solutions.Project Management Maturity Model[EB/OL].http:∥www.pmsolutions.com/maturity model/,2002
39 PMI.OPM3 Knowledge Foundation[M].Pennsylvania:PMI Publishing,2003. 21-28
40詹伟,邱菀华.项目管理成熟度模型及其应用研究.北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版).2007(3):18-21
41刘亚铮,秦占巧.基于灰色理论的项目管理成熟度模型探析.价值工程.2008(12)
126-128
42朱毅麟.航天器研制项目管理成熟度.航天器工程.2007(9):6-10
43林瑞跃,陈志平,凌宗平.组合DEA方法与成熟度模型对项目效益的评价.运筹与管理.2004(4):135-138
44赵林捷,汤书昆.一种新的技术创新管理工具——创新管理成熟度模型研究(IMMM).科学学与科学技术管理,2007(10):81-87
45祁延莉.知识管理成熟度模型初探——以西门子公司为例.情报理论与实践.2005(6):
570-573
46张凌欣,胡克瑾.基于COBIT4.1的IT治理成熟度定量评价方法.情报杂志.2008(11):149-152
47胡翠红.知识管理技术成熟度模型的研究.情报杂志.2006(8):67-68
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