资源诅咒与区域经济增长研究
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摘要
国内外近几十年的研究表明,自然资源并不会必然地带来快速的经济增长,许多自然资源丰富的国家与地区经济增长反而慢于自然资源稀缺的国家与地区,也就是说丰富的自然资源阻碍了经济的增长。这一现象在经济学中被称命名为“资源诅咒”,并引起了国外学术界的广泛关注。
从国内状况来看,我国自然资源分布很不均匀,中西部地区资源丰富,而东部沿海大部分地区资源相对匮乏。现实的经济发展状况却是,自然资源丰裕的中西部省份经济绩效远远不如资源贫乏的东部沿海省份,如自然资源丰富的山西、东北、云南等地,其经济增长速度远远落后于自然资源贫乏的浙江、江苏等地。尤为严重的是随着资源的开采,许多资源丰裕地区不是越来越富,反而是相对越来越穷,所在地的资源优势没有转化成经济优势,出现了“富饶的贫困”。
国际上的学术研究和我国的现实状况让我们深思。我国区域经济增长差距的出现固然受到改革开放的时序、工业基础、地理区位的影响,自然资源禀赋的差异在我国的区域经济增长差距当中又起到了什么样的影响和作用;如果自然资源禀赋对经济增长差异存在影响的话,它又是通过什么渠道发挥作用的,又应该如何消除这种影响。围绕这一主线,本文运用资源经济学、产业经济学、区域经济学、发展经济学等学科理论,采用定性与定量研究相结合的分析方法,对“资源诅咒”的涵义及其产生条件、自然资源在经济增长中的影响及其作用机制、克服“资源诅咒”的对策和建议进行了系统研究。具体来讲,在以下几个方面做出了努力:
1.“资源诅咒”在我国是否存在
本文在此部分采用了计量经济学的方法,采集相关数据,实证检验我国自然资源禀赋与区域经济增长速度的关系。长期回归结果表明自然资源对经济增长在一定程度上起到了负面作用,某些自然资源丰裕的省份经济增长相对缓慢;短期回归结果来看,由于资源价格上涨或者资源需求量激增促使自然资源的大量开发,能够带来GDP在短期内的快速增长,表面上消除了“资源诅咒”,但是这种表面的经济增长是以减少制造业的投入为代价的,势必造成造成长期经济增长的乏力,形成更大的“资源诅咒”陷阱。
2.资源诅咒的传导机制——产业结构
在此部分,本文首先通过理论分析与实证检验得出了这样的观点:产业结构存在由低级向高级不断演化的固有规律,这种产业结构的演化可以促进经济的增长。然后指出丰裕的自然资源在某种程度上阻碍了产业结构的正常演进,使资源地区长期依赖于高投入、低产出的资源采掘产业,具有较高附加值的加工制造产业以及第三产业无从发展,长期经济增长乏力。这是“资源诅咒”的一个重要作用机制。
3.资源诅咒的传导机制——技术创新与技术进步
内生增长理论认技术进步是经济增长的源泉,技术创新则是技术进步的实现形式,技术创新理论则认为技术创新是通过区域技术创新体系来实现的。丰裕的自然资源会对技术创新体系当中的技术创新主体、技术创新资源以及技术创新环境产生不利的影响,从而制约一个地区的技术进步和技术创新,最终影响了该地区的经济增长,在此部分,本文借助一个数理模型说明了这一影响过程。最后采用计量模型进行证实检验,得出这样的结论:一个地区资源采掘产业比重越大,对技术创新的负面影响越强,从而印证了这一观点。
4.“资源诅咒”对策与建议
解决“资源诅咒”的整体思路就是变资源优势为资本优势、变资本优势为产业优势、变产业优势为科技优势,从而促进本地经济的持续快速发展。具体来讲首先就是要解决好资源收入的管理与分配问题,建立相对公正的资源收入分配机制,防止资源收入流失,为资源型地区积累发展资金;然后是资源收入的使用问题,应当把资源收入用于可持续发展因素的培育上面,诸如优化投资环境、扶持本地弱势产业、培养人力资源以及创建区域技术创新体系等等。
Recent studies show that natural resources will not necessarily bring about rapid economic growth. International developing experience shows that countries or regions rich in natural resources tends to growth slower than those poor in natural resources, that is to say, abundant natural resources hinder economic growth. This phenomenon is called "resource curse" in economics, which attracts much attention of academics.
From the domestic situation, natural resources of our country is distributed much uneven, the central and western regions are rich in resources, dense, most of the eastern coastal areas are limited in natural resources, even lack of resources in long-term. However, the reality of economic development is that central and western provinces with abundant natural resources have poorer economic performance than those eastern coastal provinces poor in natural resources. For example, economic growth rate of Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Yunnan is slower that of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and such places. More seriously, with the exploitation of resources, many resources areas are getting poorer rather than getting richer. Resource advantages of these areas are not transforming into economic advantages, but "rich poverty".
International academic research and the reality of our country lead us to these questions: although the gap between China's regional economic growth is obviously caused by the timing order of reforming and opening, industrial base, the location from coastal, however, what a role does the endowments difference of natural resources play in forming the gap? if it does, what is the transmission mechanism. Around these core questions, a systematic analysis was carried out on theoretical base of resource economics, industrial economics and regional economics. By using of a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, some questions were discussed such as the definition of resource curse, the impact of resource curse on economic growth and its transmission mechanism, the countermeasures and suggestions to overcome resource curse. It is specifically distributed in the following research issue:
1 .Resource curse exist in our country whether or not
In this part of this paper, econometric method was used to study relationship between natural resources endowment and regional economic growth rate. Long-term regression result tends to show that natural resources play a negative role on economic growth to some extent, excessive dependence on abundant natural resources led to a slow economic growth rate; short-term regression results, seemingly shows he elimination of the "resource curse", GDP growth fast in the short term because of resource prices goes high. But this growth reduced the inputs in manufacturing sectors, which is bound to weaken the long-term economic growth dynamics, forming a new "resource curse" trap.
2. Industrial structure—one transmission mechanism
In this part of this paper, theoretical analysis and empirical testing proved the opinion: industrial structure supererogation can promote economic growth. However, abundant natural resources in some ways impede the normal evolution of the industrial structure. It cause resource regions depend on resource extraction industries with high input, low output in a long time. High value-added industries such as manufacturing sectors, as well as the third industry can not grow up, weakening long-term economic growth dynamics. This is an important transmission mechanism of "resource curse".
3.Technological innovation and technological progress—another transmission mechanism
Endogenous economic growth theory suggests that technological innovation and technological progress are source of economic growth, technological innovation theory shows that technological innovation is implemented by regional technology innovation system. Sometimes too much natural resources has a negative impact on innovation participant, innovation resources and innovation environment, thus affecting technological progress and technological innovation of an area, and ultimately affect the region's economic growth. In this part of this paper, a mathematical model was developed to describes the impact and process, also a econometrics model was established to confirm this idea.
4.Countermeasures and suggestions
A main framework was built to solve "resource curse", which is changing resource advantages into capital advantage, changing capital advantage into industrial advantages, changing industrial advantages into technological advantages, so as to keep sustainable and rapid economic development. Specifically, the first step is to solve the questions of income distribution, set up a relatively fair distribution mechanism of resources income to prevent the loss of resource revenues; and the second step involves the use of resources income, resources income should be used properly such as to support local industry, optimize the investment environment, to introduce skilled personnel; the final step is cultivation of sustainable development resource, focused on human resources, technology resources.
从国内状况来看,我国自然资源分布很不均匀,中西部地区资源丰富,而东部沿海大部分地区资源相对匮乏。现实的经济发展状况却是,自然资源丰裕的中西部省份经济绩效远远不如资源贫乏的东部沿海省份,如自然资源丰富的山西、东北、云南等地,其经济增长速度远远落后于自然资源贫乏的浙江、江苏等地。尤为严重的是随着资源的开采,许多资源丰裕地区不是越来越富,反而是相对越来越穷,所在地的资源优势没有转化成经济优势,出现了“富饶的贫困”。
国际上的学术研究和我国的现实状况让我们深思。我国区域经济增长差距的出现固然受到改革开放的时序、工业基础、地理区位的影响,自然资源禀赋的差异在我国的区域经济增长差距当中又起到了什么样的影响和作用;如果自然资源禀赋对经济增长差异存在影响的话,它又是通过什么渠道发挥作用的,又应该如何消除这种影响。围绕这一主线,本文运用资源经济学、产业经济学、区域经济学、发展经济学等学科理论,采用定性与定量研究相结合的分析方法,对“资源诅咒”的涵义及其产生条件、自然资源在经济增长中的影响及其作用机制、克服“资源诅咒”的对策和建议进行了系统研究。具体来讲,在以下几个方面做出了努力:
1.“资源诅咒”在我国是否存在
本文在此部分采用了计量经济学的方法,采集相关数据,实证检验我国自然资源禀赋与区域经济增长速度的关系。长期回归结果表明自然资源对经济增长在一定程度上起到了负面作用,某些自然资源丰裕的省份经济增长相对缓慢;短期回归结果来看,由于资源价格上涨或者资源需求量激增促使自然资源的大量开发,能够带来GDP在短期内的快速增长,表面上消除了“资源诅咒”,但是这种表面的经济增长是以减少制造业的投入为代价的,势必造成造成长期经济增长的乏力,形成更大的“资源诅咒”陷阱。
2.资源诅咒的传导机制——产业结构
在此部分,本文首先通过理论分析与实证检验得出了这样的观点:产业结构存在由低级向高级不断演化的固有规律,这种产业结构的演化可以促进经济的增长。然后指出丰裕的自然资源在某种程度上阻碍了产业结构的正常演进,使资源地区长期依赖于高投入、低产出的资源采掘产业,具有较高附加值的加工制造产业以及第三产业无从发展,长期经济增长乏力。这是“资源诅咒”的一个重要作用机制。
3.资源诅咒的传导机制——技术创新与技术进步
内生增长理论认技术进步是经济增长的源泉,技术创新则是技术进步的实现形式,技术创新理论则认为技术创新是通过区域技术创新体系来实现的。丰裕的自然资源会对技术创新体系当中的技术创新主体、技术创新资源以及技术创新环境产生不利的影响,从而制约一个地区的技术进步和技术创新,最终影响了该地区的经济增长,在此部分,本文借助一个数理模型说明了这一影响过程。最后采用计量模型进行证实检验,得出这样的结论:一个地区资源采掘产业比重越大,对技术创新的负面影响越强,从而印证了这一观点。
4.“资源诅咒”对策与建议
解决“资源诅咒”的整体思路就是变资源优势为资本优势、变资本优势为产业优势、变产业优势为科技优势,从而促进本地经济的持续快速发展。具体来讲首先就是要解决好资源收入的管理与分配问题,建立相对公正的资源收入分配机制,防止资源收入流失,为资源型地区积累发展资金;然后是资源收入的使用问题,应当把资源收入用于可持续发展因素的培育上面,诸如优化投资环境、扶持本地弱势产业、培养人力资源以及创建区域技术创新体系等等。
Recent studies show that natural resources will not necessarily bring about rapid economic growth. International developing experience shows that countries or regions rich in natural resources tends to growth slower than those poor in natural resources, that is to say, abundant natural resources hinder economic growth. This phenomenon is called "resource curse" in economics, which attracts much attention of academics.
From the domestic situation, natural resources of our country is distributed much uneven, the central and western regions are rich in resources, dense, most of the eastern coastal areas are limited in natural resources, even lack of resources in long-term. However, the reality of economic development is that central and western provinces with abundant natural resources have poorer economic performance than those eastern coastal provinces poor in natural resources. For example, economic growth rate of Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Yunnan is slower that of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and such places. More seriously, with the exploitation of resources, many resources areas are getting poorer rather than getting richer. Resource advantages of these areas are not transforming into economic advantages, but "rich poverty".
International academic research and the reality of our country lead us to these questions: although the gap between China's regional economic growth is obviously caused by the timing order of reforming and opening, industrial base, the location from coastal, however, what a role does the endowments difference of natural resources play in forming the gap? if it does, what is the transmission mechanism. Around these core questions, a systematic analysis was carried out on theoretical base of resource economics, industrial economics and regional economics. By using of a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, some questions were discussed such as the definition of resource curse, the impact of resource curse on economic growth and its transmission mechanism, the countermeasures and suggestions to overcome resource curse. It is specifically distributed in the following research issue:
1 .Resource curse exist in our country whether or not
In this part of this paper, econometric method was used to study relationship between natural resources endowment and regional economic growth rate. Long-term regression result tends to show that natural resources play a negative role on economic growth to some extent, excessive dependence on abundant natural resources led to a slow economic growth rate; short-term regression results, seemingly shows he elimination of the "resource curse", GDP growth fast in the short term because of resource prices goes high. But this growth reduced the inputs in manufacturing sectors, which is bound to weaken the long-term economic growth dynamics, forming a new "resource curse" trap.
2. Industrial structure—one transmission mechanism
In this part of this paper, theoretical analysis and empirical testing proved the opinion: industrial structure supererogation can promote economic growth. However, abundant natural resources in some ways impede the normal evolution of the industrial structure. It cause resource regions depend on resource extraction industries with high input, low output in a long time. High value-added industries such as manufacturing sectors, as well as the third industry can not grow up, weakening long-term economic growth dynamics. This is an important transmission mechanism of "resource curse".
3.Technological innovation and technological progress—another transmission mechanism
Endogenous economic growth theory suggests that technological innovation and technological progress are source of economic growth, technological innovation theory shows that technological innovation is implemented by regional technology innovation system. Sometimes too much natural resources has a negative impact on innovation participant, innovation resources and innovation environment, thus affecting technological progress and technological innovation of an area, and ultimately affect the region's economic growth. In this part of this paper, a mathematical model was developed to describes the impact and process, also a econometrics model was established to confirm this idea.
4.Countermeasures and suggestions
A main framework was built to solve "resource curse", which is changing resource advantages into capital advantage, changing capital advantage into industrial advantages, changing industrial advantages into technological advantages, so as to keep sustainable and rapid economic development. Specifically, the first step is to solve the questions of income distribution, set up a relatively fair distribution mechanism of resources income to prevent the loss of resource revenues; and the second step involves the use of resources income, resources income should be used properly such as to support local industry, optimize the investment environment, to introduce skilled personnel; the final step is cultivation of sustainable development resource, focused on human resources, technology resources.
引文
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