我国县域农村金融市场结构与绩效研究
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摘要
县域作为我国经济体系中一个承上启下的重要环节,联结着农村和城市,县域经济的发展和壮大对缓解城乡收入差距、推动城乡统筹发展具有重大的战略意义。县域农村金融作为县域农村经济发展的核心，是实现县域农村收入增长的保证。新世纪以来,我国农村金融领域开展了一系列改革和制度创新,但农村金融发展却始终滞后于农村经济的快速增长。市场垄断、金融机构覆盖率低等问题导致了农村金融市场的低效率；垄断性和商业化程度越来越高的农村金融机构,支农功能逐步弱化,逐利目标使其实际供给远小于预期,更加剧了农村地区资金供求不平衡的状况。为了从根本上解决我国农村金融市场竞争不充分、低效率等问题,党的十七届三中全会明确提出,要建立现代农村金融制度,完善多层次、功能健全、运行安全的农村金融体系。2006年12月20日,银监会发布了《关于调整放宽农村地区银行业金融机构准入政策,更好支持社会主义新农村建设的若干意见》,提出要按照商业可持续原则,适度调整和放宽农村地区银行业金融机构准入政策,降低准入门槛。2010年中央1号文件再次强调要“加快培育村镇银行、贷款公司、农村资金互助社,有序发展小额贷款组织,引导社会资金投资设立适应‘三农’需要的各类新型金融组织”。引入外部竞争主体,打破市场垄断成为解决县域农村金融难以满足县域经济发展需要的改革方向,更是目前理论研究和实践领域中关注的焦点。
理论分析和部分发展中国家的农村金融市场开放实践证明,引入外部竞争者可以促进金融部门的竞争,从而推动农村金融市场的发展,传统产业组织理论的分析框架亦向我们揭示了市场结构对企业行为和绩效的影响。然而,作为区域金融的一个典型代表,县域金融市场具有突出的地域性特征。受地理区位、经济环境、制度环境等多种因素的影响,我国县域农村金融市场发育水平差异巨大。同时,农村地区普遍存在的金融抑制使得农村金融市场结构与农村金融机构行为与绩效关系更加复杂,相同的市场开放政策在不同地区的效果可能会存在差异。现有的对农村金融市场结构、农村金融机构行为与绩效的分析只是零散于诸多研究农村金融相关问题的文献之中,缺少相对系统和完整的分析,其内在的影响和传导机制尚不明确,在县域农村金融领域的金融产业组织分析框架仍未形成。
本文借助产业组织理论的分析范式对我国县域农村金融市场结构、农村金融机构行为以及农村金融市场绩效之间的关系进行了理论研究和实证分析,旨在揭示我国县域农村金融市场结构的变化规律以及传统的“结构-行为-绩效”范式在县域农村金融市场上的表现和机制。从而为构建竞争性农村金融市场体系提供一定的理论基础和政策建议。全文共分为7个部分,研究的主要内容和结论如下：
研究内容一：我国县域农村金融市场结构分析
本文对我国县域农村金融市场结构的研究采用比较研究方法：一是分别运用结构与非结构法对县域农村金融市场的市场集中度和竞争度进行测算,以更加客观全面地反映县域农村金融市场结构的特征和变化规律；二是通过对不同经济发展水平县域农村金融市场结构的比较,揭示县域金融市场结构的区域性差异。
研究结果表明,在县域农村金融市场上,农信社凭借其自身的地理和信息优势,拥有较高的市场份额,处于相对的垄断地位,我国农村金融市场属于以农信社为主体的垄断竞争结构；降低市场准入限制,不论是在欠发达地区引入新型农村金融机构,还是在发达地区引入商业性和外资金融机构对提升农村金融市场的竞争水平都是有效的；鉴于集中度和竞争度这两个指标在我国县域农村金融市场的差异,运用非结构方法分析更能体现出市场开放进程中我国县域农村金融市场结构的动态变化。
研究内容二：县域农村金融机构竞争行为分析
在逐步放开的县域农村金融市场上,寡头竞争成为一种趋势。在县域范围内的各家金融机构资源禀赋各异,各自拥有不同的比较优势,为了占领市场,机构间展开错位竞争,包括价格竞争和非价格竞争两种形式。竞争促进了县域农村金融机构逐步采取商业银行的定价方法,降低贷款价格,以维持优质的客户资源；突出产品差异化和产品创新,充分发挥其比较优势；注重技术创新,采用新的信贷技术以降低贷款风险和交易成本,扩大贷款面。
通过构建农信社信贷配置选择模型,分析了在不同竞争市场条件下,农信社对贷款数量配置和贷款价格的调整,结论表明降低农村金融市场准入限制以后,企业贷款市场比农户贷款市场竞争更加激烈,由此改变了农信社在两个市场上的信贷资金配置策略行为,使其增加了对农户的贷款配置,并降低了贷款价格。
研究内容三：县域农村金融市场绩效分析
本文对县域金融市场的绩效评价从机构和功能两个维度展开。通过不同的绩效指标对2000-2009年间江苏省37家农信社的经营状况进行分析,并对县域农村金融市场结构与农信社经营绩效的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,在不同的市场竞争条件下,考察期内农村信用社经营绩效的各项指标都是上升的,江苏的县域农村金融市场结构与农信社经营绩效的关系符合效率假说,即农信社的绩效提升主要是由于效率的提升,其市场份额增加、市场集中度变化是效率提高的结果。本文对县域农村金融市场的绩效评价主要是围绕农村金融市场的资金配置效率展开,分别以对农户贷款数量和贷款价格为评价指标。文章分别实证了县域农村金融市场结构与农信社对农户贷款数量和贷款价格的关系,发现县域农村金融市场竞争程度和农户平均贷款数量正相关,和农信社贷款价格负相关,农信社的经营效率与农户贷款数量正相关,和贷款价格负相关。
本文将金融机构和金融市场功能的绩效作为判断农村金融市场结构是否合意的标准,即合意的县域农村金融市场结构应该满足两个条件：一是有利于促进金融机构经营绩效的提升,以保持经营的可持续性；二是能够促进农村金融市场的资源配置效率,以提高金融市场的整体福利水平。根据本文的研究结论,不论从机构的角度还是从功能的角度,与当前快速发展的县域农村经济最匹配的农村金融市场结构应该是竞争性的。但根据不同县域农村经济发展特征,市场竞争程度应该是差异性的,经济发达地区竞争更充分,而经济欠发达地区则应是以农信社为主体的寡头竞争市场。
As an important link between the rural and urban economy in China, county economic development is of great significance to reduce the income gap and to accelerate coordinate development in the urban and rural area. County rural finance is the core of county rural economy, which is necessary to promote the rural income growth. Since the new century, there has been a series of reform and system innovation in rural finance, but the rural financial development still falls behind the rapid growth of the rural economy. Market monopoly and low coverage of financial institutions led to the low efficiency of rural financial market. Increasingly monopoly and commercialized rural financial institutions deduced rural credit supply, which worsen the shortage of fund supply in rural areas. In order to increase the credit supply, the Party's 17th third session definitely put forward to build modern rural financial system.
On Dec.20,2006, CBRC published the policy "Increase the banking market access in rural areas to better support the construction of the new socialist countryside", which aims at moderately reducing the access restriction according to the business sustainable principle. The Central First Document of 2010 also emphasized to "accelerate the development of village banks, loan companies and rural mutual fund cooperatives and introduce social capital investment to rural financial market to establish the suitable new rural financial institutions for'three agriculture'". Introducing external competition entities and breaking monopoly have become the reform direction of solving the credit problem in rural areas. In addition, it's the focus which is concerned by theoretic studies and practice areas at present.
Theory and rural financial market opening practice in some developing countries have proved that the introduction of external competitors could promote competition in the financial sector, so as to accelerate the development of rural financial market. The traditional industrial organization theory also proves that market structure has influence on enterprise's conduct and performance. However, as a typical representative of the regional finance, county rural financial market is of prominent regional characteristics. In China, rural financial market development stituations are quite different because of the difference in counties'geographical location, economic environment and policy environment. Meanwhile, the SCP paradigm in rural banking may be more complex due to the financial repression, which may lead to the different effect of the same market open policy in different regions. The existing research on this problem only scatters in many relevant literatures, and the systematic and completed research are still in shortage. The internal influence and conduction mechanism of rural financial market structure and perforrnance is unclear, and county financial industry organization analysis framework has not been formed.
Based on the paradigm of Industrial Organization Theory, this thesis makes some theoretic and empirical analysis on the relationship between county rural financial market structure, rural financial institutions behavior and rural financial market performance, which aims at revealing the change rules of rural financial market structure and its influencing factors, and the mechanism of traditional SCP paradigm in county rural financial market. Finally, we provide some policy suggestions for rural financial market construction. The main contents and conclusions of the study are as follows:
Part 1:the structure of county rural financial market
We analysis the county rural financial market structure through comparative studies in the following two aspects:(1) we measure the structure of county rural financial market by structure method and non-structure method respectively to reveal the changing rule and characteristic; (2) we compare the structures between counties of different economic development level to disclose the regional differences of county financial market structure.
The results show that China's county rural financial market is monopolistic competition, which is monopolized by Rural Credit Cooperatives (RCCs) with its geographical and information advantages. It is effective to promote the competition in counties by increasing the market access including cultivating new types of rural financial institutions in undeveloped counties and introducing commercial and foreign financial institutions in developed areas. In terms of the characteristics of China's rural economy and finance development non-structure estimation technique is more applicable and reliable than the traditional structural techniques in evaluating the dymatic change of China's county financial market competition during the procession of rural financial market opening.
Part 2:Conduct of county rural financial institutions
In the gradually opened county rural financial market, oligarchic competition becomes a trend. Different kinds of county financial institutions have different comparative advantages, which leads to their different competitive behavior including non-price competition and price competition. Under the completion pressure, rural financial institutions have taken a series of competitive strategies to keep their market share. Firstly, they reduce the loan price to keep the profitable customers by adopting commercial bank's pricing method. Secondly, they execute different lending policies and loan prices for different kinds of customers. Thirdly, they pay more attention to product innovation and try to adopt new credit technology to reduce loan cost and risk. Finally, they positively reform the organizational structure through organizing rural agricultural bank to improve their management and governance efficiency.
We establish the RCCs credit distributing choice model based on comparative information advantage theory, which shows that the different competitive situation between enterprise and fanner loan markets has greatly changed the RCC's loan distributing strategy since the rural financial market entry was increased. RCC increase the farmer loan to maximize its profit, and RCC lowers the credit price because of completion.
Part 3:Performance of the county rural financial market
We evaluate the performance of the county rural financial market in two dimensions: institution and function. The empirical study of Jiangsu Province shows that in different competition situations, every performance index of RCCs is increasing. Efficient-structure hypothesis was supported in Jiangsu. We also evaluate the financial market performance of Jiangsu's county in terms of farmer loan account and loan price. The results show that both the average amount of farmer loan and the coverage were significantly increased. The loan price lowered due to the competition, while the business loan price decreased more than farmer loan because of the more competitive situation.
The optimal rural financial market structure should meet two conditions:(1) to promote the development of financial institutions:(2) to realize the function of rural financial market and improve the welfare of the demanders. In conclusion. no matter from the institution or from the function, the optimal structure which matches the rapid development of county economy is competitive. Furthermore, according to the difference of economic development level, the degree of competition is quite different. The financial market structure of developed rural area should be pefect competitive, while in undeveloped rual area the structure should be oligarchic competition by RCCs.
理论分析和部分发展中国家的农村金融市场开放实践证明,引入外部竞争者可以促进金融部门的竞争,从而推动农村金融市场的发展,传统产业组织理论的分析框架亦向我们揭示了市场结构对企业行为和绩效的影响。然而,作为区域金融的一个典型代表,县域金融市场具有突出的地域性特征。受地理区位、经济环境、制度环境等多种因素的影响,我国县域农村金融市场发育水平差异巨大。同时,农村地区普遍存在的金融抑制使得农村金融市场结构与农村金融机构行为与绩效关系更加复杂,相同的市场开放政策在不同地区的效果可能会存在差异。现有的对农村金融市场结构、农村金融机构行为与绩效的分析只是零散于诸多研究农村金融相关问题的文献之中,缺少相对系统和完整的分析,其内在的影响和传导机制尚不明确,在县域农村金融领域的金融产业组织分析框架仍未形成。
本文借助产业组织理论的分析范式对我国县域农村金融市场结构、农村金融机构行为以及农村金融市场绩效之间的关系进行了理论研究和实证分析,旨在揭示我国县域农村金融市场结构的变化规律以及传统的“结构-行为-绩效”范式在县域农村金融市场上的表现和机制。从而为构建竞争性农村金融市场体系提供一定的理论基础和政策建议。全文共分为7个部分,研究的主要内容和结论如下：
研究内容一：我国县域农村金融市场结构分析
本文对我国县域农村金融市场结构的研究采用比较研究方法：一是分别运用结构与非结构法对县域农村金融市场的市场集中度和竞争度进行测算,以更加客观全面地反映县域农村金融市场结构的特征和变化规律；二是通过对不同经济发展水平县域农村金融市场结构的比较,揭示县域金融市场结构的区域性差异。
研究结果表明,在县域农村金融市场上,农信社凭借其自身的地理和信息优势,拥有较高的市场份额,处于相对的垄断地位,我国农村金融市场属于以农信社为主体的垄断竞争结构；降低市场准入限制,不论是在欠发达地区引入新型农村金融机构,还是在发达地区引入商业性和外资金融机构对提升农村金融市场的竞争水平都是有效的；鉴于集中度和竞争度这两个指标在我国县域农村金融市场的差异,运用非结构方法分析更能体现出市场开放进程中我国县域农村金融市场结构的动态变化。
研究内容二：县域农村金融机构竞争行为分析
在逐步放开的县域农村金融市场上,寡头竞争成为一种趋势。在县域范围内的各家金融机构资源禀赋各异,各自拥有不同的比较优势,为了占领市场,机构间展开错位竞争,包括价格竞争和非价格竞争两种形式。竞争促进了县域农村金融机构逐步采取商业银行的定价方法,降低贷款价格,以维持优质的客户资源；突出产品差异化和产品创新,充分发挥其比较优势；注重技术创新,采用新的信贷技术以降低贷款风险和交易成本,扩大贷款面。
通过构建农信社信贷配置选择模型,分析了在不同竞争市场条件下,农信社对贷款数量配置和贷款价格的调整,结论表明降低农村金融市场准入限制以后,企业贷款市场比农户贷款市场竞争更加激烈,由此改变了农信社在两个市场上的信贷资金配置策略行为,使其增加了对农户的贷款配置,并降低了贷款价格。
研究内容三：县域农村金融市场绩效分析
本文对县域金融市场的绩效评价从机构和功能两个维度展开。通过不同的绩效指标对2000-2009年间江苏省37家农信社的经营状况进行分析,并对县域农村金融市场结构与农信社经营绩效的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,在不同的市场竞争条件下,考察期内农村信用社经营绩效的各项指标都是上升的,江苏的县域农村金融市场结构与农信社经营绩效的关系符合效率假说,即农信社的绩效提升主要是由于效率的提升,其市场份额增加、市场集中度变化是效率提高的结果。本文对县域农村金融市场的绩效评价主要是围绕农村金融市场的资金配置效率展开,分别以对农户贷款数量和贷款价格为评价指标。文章分别实证了县域农村金融市场结构与农信社对农户贷款数量和贷款价格的关系,发现县域农村金融市场竞争程度和农户平均贷款数量正相关,和农信社贷款价格负相关,农信社的经营效率与农户贷款数量正相关,和贷款价格负相关。
本文将金融机构和金融市场功能的绩效作为判断农村金融市场结构是否合意的标准,即合意的县域农村金融市场结构应该满足两个条件：一是有利于促进金融机构经营绩效的提升,以保持经营的可持续性；二是能够促进农村金融市场的资源配置效率,以提高金融市场的整体福利水平。根据本文的研究结论,不论从机构的角度还是从功能的角度,与当前快速发展的县域农村经济最匹配的农村金融市场结构应该是竞争性的。但根据不同县域农村经济发展特征,市场竞争程度应该是差异性的,经济发达地区竞争更充分,而经济欠发达地区则应是以农信社为主体的寡头竞争市场。
As an important link between the rural and urban economy in China, county economic development is of great significance to reduce the income gap and to accelerate coordinate development in the urban and rural area. County rural finance is the core of county rural economy, which is necessary to promote the rural income growth. Since the new century, there has been a series of reform and system innovation in rural finance, but the rural financial development still falls behind the rapid growth of the rural economy. Market monopoly and low coverage of financial institutions led to the low efficiency of rural financial market. Increasingly monopoly and commercialized rural financial institutions deduced rural credit supply, which worsen the shortage of fund supply in rural areas. In order to increase the credit supply, the Party's 17th third session definitely put forward to build modern rural financial system.
On Dec.20,2006, CBRC published the policy "Increase the banking market access in rural areas to better support the construction of the new socialist countryside", which aims at moderately reducing the access restriction according to the business sustainable principle. The Central First Document of 2010 also emphasized to "accelerate the development of village banks, loan companies and rural mutual fund cooperatives and introduce social capital investment to rural financial market to establish the suitable new rural financial institutions for'three agriculture'". Introducing external competition entities and breaking monopoly have become the reform direction of solving the credit problem in rural areas. In addition, it's the focus which is concerned by theoretic studies and practice areas at present.
Theory and rural financial market opening practice in some developing countries have proved that the introduction of external competitors could promote competition in the financial sector, so as to accelerate the development of rural financial market. The traditional industrial organization theory also proves that market structure has influence on enterprise's conduct and performance. However, as a typical representative of the regional finance, county rural financial market is of prominent regional characteristics. In China, rural financial market development stituations are quite different because of the difference in counties'geographical location, economic environment and policy environment. Meanwhile, the SCP paradigm in rural banking may be more complex due to the financial repression, which may lead to the different effect of the same market open policy in different regions. The existing research on this problem only scatters in many relevant literatures, and the systematic and completed research are still in shortage. The internal influence and conduction mechanism of rural financial market structure and perforrnance is unclear, and county financial industry organization analysis framework has not been formed.
Based on the paradigm of Industrial Organization Theory, this thesis makes some theoretic and empirical analysis on the relationship between county rural financial market structure, rural financial institutions behavior and rural financial market performance, which aims at revealing the change rules of rural financial market structure and its influencing factors, and the mechanism of traditional SCP paradigm in county rural financial market. Finally, we provide some policy suggestions for rural financial market construction. The main contents and conclusions of the study are as follows:
Part 1:the structure of county rural financial market
We analysis the county rural financial market structure through comparative studies in the following two aspects:(1) we measure the structure of county rural financial market by structure method and non-structure method respectively to reveal the changing rule and characteristic; (2) we compare the structures between counties of different economic development level to disclose the regional differences of county financial market structure.
The results show that China's county rural financial market is monopolistic competition, which is monopolized by Rural Credit Cooperatives (RCCs) with its geographical and information advantages. It is effective to promote the competition in counties by increasing the market access including cultivating new types of rural financial institutions in undeveloped counties and introducing commercial and foreign financial institutions in developed areas. In terms of the characteristics of China's rural economy and finance development non-structure estimation technique is more applicable and reliable than the traditional structural techniques in evaluating the dymatic change of China's county financial market competition during the procession of rural financial market opening.
Part 2:Conduct of county rural financial institutions
In the gradually opened county rural financial market, oligarchic competition becomes a trend. Different kinds of county financial institutions have different comparative advantages, which leads to their different competitive behavior including non-price competition and price competition. Under the completion pressure, rural financial institutions have taken a series of competitive strategies to keep their market share. Firstly, they reduce the loan price to keep the profitable customers by adopting commercial bank's pricing method. Secondly, they execute different lending policies and loan prices for different kinds of customers. Thirdly, they pay more attention to product innovation and try to adopt new credit technology to reduce loan cost and risk. Finally, they positively reform the organizational structure through organizing rural agricultural bank to improve their management and governance efficiency.
We establish the RCCs credit distributing choice model based on comparative information advantage theory, which shows that the different competitive situation between enterprise and fanner loan markets has greatly changed the RCC's loan distributing strategy since the rural financial market entry was increased. RCC increase the farmer loan to maximize its profit, and RCC lowers the credit price because of completion.
Part 3:Performance of the county rural financial market
We evaluate the performance of the county rural financial market in two dimensions: institution and function. The empirical study of Jiangsu Province shows that in different competition situations, every performance index of RCCs is increasing. Efficient-structure hypothesis was supported in Jiangsu. We also evaluate the financial market performance of Jiangsu's county in terms of farmer loan account and loan price. The results show that both the average amount of farmer loan and the coverage were significantly increased. The loan price lowered due to the competition, while the business loan price decreased more than farmer loan because of the more competitive situation.
The optimal rural financial market structure should meet two conditions:(1) to promote the development of financial institutions:(2) to realize the function of rural financial market and improve the welfare of the demanders. In conclusion. no matter from the institution or from the function, the optimal structure which matches the rapid development of county economy is competitive. Furthermore, according to the difference of economic development level, the degree of competition is quite different. The financial market structure of developed rural area should be pefect competitive, while in undeveloped rual area the structure should be oligarchic competition by RCCs.
引文
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