中国高投资下的资本回报率研究
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摘要
改革以来,中国经济取得了举世瞩目的高速增长,高储蓄和高投资在其中起了重要作用。然而,近些年来中国的储蓄率和投资率不断攀升,引发了学者对过度投资和经济增长可持续性的担忧。本文认为,衡量投资是否过度,关键要看资本回报率是否出现了快速的下降。但是,现有文献对资本回报率的研究结论差异很大。因此,本文首先对现行资本回报率的相关争论进行了梳理,发现资本回报率估算的差异主要源于概念和数据处理的不同。部分学者采用的资本回报率偏向于微观上的会计利润率的概念,而另一部分学者倾向于从宏观经济学的视角认识资本回报率。对于微观资本回报率的争论,主要是会计上对于数据处理以及真实性的不同见解；而宏观资本回报率争论的焦点又在于资本存量的估算。本文认为,宏观资本回报率的概念更全面,更能囊括经济的各个方面,因而本文选用这一概念进行资本回报率的测度,即利用Bai et al (2006)的方法进行资本回报率的估算。
利用该方法,本文在建筑寿命38年、设备寿命16年的假定下估算了我国的资本存量,并计算了多种口径的资本回报率。我们发现,基础口径的资本回报率在大多数年份都在15%-20%之间波动,并且没有明显的下降趋势。考虑到我国资本品和产成品相对价格在不同年份波动差异较大,本文进一步考虑了剔除资本利得影响的资本回报率和以1978年不变价计算的资本回报率,发现这几个资本回报率的走势和变动幅度都基本相似,大多数年份仍在15%-20%之间波动。针对学界讨论的生产税净额归属、统计口径调整和存货、所得税处理等问题,本文也进行了讨论,发现经过这些处理后,我国资本回报率仍没有出现明显的下降趋势。因此,我国的高投资是有其微观基础的。
在测算全国资本回报率的基础上,本文进一步测量了各省的资本回报率。本文发现,我国各省的资本回报率均值差异很大,并且各省的资本回报率变动呈现很不相同的模式。从东中西部划分的区域层面上看,东部的资本回报率最高,中部次之,西部最低。东部地区的资本回报率下降非常快,而中部省份的资本回报率变动则相对东部较为平缓,西部的大多数省份的资本回报率在改革以来并没有明显的下降趋势,部分省份还有所上升。并且,在全国范围和东中西部内部,资本回报率都是绝对收敛的,这表明我国的资本配置效率在不断提升。
鉴于资本回报率对投资的重要意义,本文紧接着考察了我国资本回报率变动的原因。本文基于对Solow (1958)分解方法的改进,发现造成我国资本回报率变动的主要原因是各省自身资本回报率的变化(省际因素),而不是资本在具有不同回报率的地区之间流动引起的(结构因素)。省际效应对资本回报率的变动平均而言贡献度为80.86%,而结构效应只贡献了19.14%。并且,在绝大多数年份,结构因素对资本回报率的影响是正向的,而省际效果对资本回报率的影响是负向的。
为了考察为何各省自身资本回报率变动的原因,本文首先在完全竞争的假定下,利用包含人力资本的Solow模型,将资本回报率的变动分为人力资本因素、资本深化因素和生产率因素。结果表明,平均而言,生产率提升和人力资本的增加对资本回报率的贡献分别为34.74%和11.96%,二者相加大约为46.70%,与资本深化的负向贡献大体相当,因此保证了我国资本回报率的稳定性。紧接着,我们放松了完全竞争的假定,在相当宽泛的条件下,从多个方面全面研究了资本回报率的决定因素,并重点探讨了在考虑多种因素后,全要素生产率是否仍对资本回报率有着显著的促进作用。我们的发现是,资本深化、国企份额的增加、出口比重的增大、第一产业比重的上升、资本品价格的上涨和用工成本的上升将降低我国的资本回报率,与此同时,生产率的提高、需求规模的扩大和相应的产成品价格的上涨、第二和第三产业比重的上升将提高我国的资本回报率。随后,我们从变量测度方法、样本离群值、估计方法和遗漏变量以及经济周期和区域划分等多个角度验证了结论的稳健性。
最后,基于资本回报率并不低,从而中国依靠高投资的增长是可持续的这一思路,利用面板向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数,分析了我国生产率、利润率、投资率、增长率四者的相互关系。本文发现,改革以来,我国生产率的提升,一方面促进了经济增长,另一方面带动了资本回报率的提升。而增长率的提升造成的需求规模扩大也会间接拉高我国的资本回报率。在这两个因素的作用下,我国的资本回报率较高,从而导致了相应的高投资。高投资一方面直接拉动了经济的增长,另一方面通过“干中学”效应,促进了我国的技术进步和生产率的提升。如此一来,整个经济形成了一个“高生产率——高利润率——高投资率——高增长率”的良性循环。因此,中国目前的高投资有其合理性,只要不断完善制度改革,加大研发投入,保持生产率的较高增长,我国依靠高投资的经济增长是可以持续的。
Since the reform and opening-up, China has achieved remarkable economic growth. In this process, high investment and high saving have played a important role. However, in recent years, the rising rate of capital formation in China, led to the scholars' concerns about China's over-investment and the sustainability of our economic growth. This dissertation argues that, the key to measure the existence of excessive investment depends on whether the return rate to capital in China has experienced a rapid decline. Since the conclusions of the existing literature are very different, this dissertation firstly surveys the relative literature, and finds that the controversy over the return rate to capital is mainly due to the different concepts and data processing. Some scholars tend to use the concept of micro-economic accounting margin, while others tend to understand the return rate to capital from the perspective of macroeconomic data.
The debates on the return rate to capital based micro-economic data is mainly derives from the data processing methods in accounting as well as the authenticity of the data, while the debates on macroeconomic data focus on the estimate of capital stock. This dissertation holds that the return rate to capital based on macroeconomic data is more comprehensive, and it compasses all aspects of the economy much more better, so we choose it to be a measure of the return rate to capital.
Firstly, following the method proposed by Bai et al (2006), and under the assumption that the durations of life for buildings and equipment in China are38and16years respectively, this dissertation calculates the rate of return on capital of various calibers. We find that, the base case estimate of return rate to capital fluctuates between15%-20%in most years, and there is no clear downward trend. Taking into account that the prices of capital goods and final products fluctuates quite distinct in different years, this dissertation further uses the alternative measures, which are the capital return excluding capital gains and the capital return which is calculated in1978constant prices.
We find that these different measures are basically similar to the base case in most years and they are still fluctuating between15%-20%. Furthermore, this dissertation discusses several problems such as the attribution of Net Product Tax, statistical standards adjustment, and the processing methods of inventory and income tax. It reaches the conclusion that there is still no clear downward trend of the return to capital after these treatments. Therefore, there are solid microeconomic foudations behind China's high investment.
Secondly, this dissertation estimates the return rate to capital of China's provinces in each year from1978to2010, and it find that the return rate to capital differs and presents very distinct change patterns between provinces. When we take our perspective on the regional level, we find that the eastern region has the highest return rate to capital, while the central region follows and the western region gets the lowest. The return rate to capital in the eastern region has declined very fast, while the trend in the central region is relatively gentler, and there is no clear downward trend in the west since the reform and opening-up, even more there are some provinces that their capital returns also rise. In addition, the return rate to capital appears significant beta-convergence both in country level and region level, which shows that the efficiency of capital allocation in China has improved.
Thirdly, this dissertation examines the reasons for the change of the return to capital in China. It improves the decomposition method that proposed by Solow (1958) and find that the main reason for the change in China's capital return is the own changes in return rate to capital due to different provinces (intra-provincial factors), rather than the flow of capital in the provinces where distinct return rates to capital exist (structural factors). On average, the contribution of intra-provincial effect is80.86%, while the structural effects only contribute19.14%. And in most years, the impact of structural factors on the rate of return on capital is positive, while the impact of the provincial effect of the rate of return on capital is negative.
In order to investigate why the rate of return on capital would change differently in provinces, we decompose the changes of return rate to capital into the human capital factor, capital deepening factor and TFP factor based on the assumptions of perfect competition. The empirical results show that, on average, productivity and human capital increase the return to capital34.74%and11.96%respectively, the two add up to about46.70%, roughly equivalent to the negative contribution of capital deepening, which ensures the stability of China's rate of return on capital. Then, we relax the assumptions of perfect competition, and find that total factor productivity still has a significant role in promoting capital return in pretty relaxed conditions. In addition, capital deepening, the increase in the share of the state-owned enterprises, the increase in exports, the rising proportion of the primary industry, the increase in capital goods prices and labor costs will reduce the rate of return on capital, in contrast, the increase in productivity, expansion of the scale of demand and the corresponding product prices, the rise of the proportion of secondary industry or tertiary industry will increase the rate of return on capital. Then, we verify the robustness of our conclusion from several perspectives, which is the measure methods of the variables, the outliers, the estimation methods and omitted variables, as well as the economic cycle and regional division.
Finally, we use Panel Vector Autoregression Model (PVAR) and impulse response function (IRF) to analyze the relationship of four important variables, which are total factor productivity, return rate to capital, investment rate, and economic growth rate. This dissertation reaches the conclusion that the increase of China's productivity has not only promoted economic growth but also enhance the return to capital, while the ascension of the growth rate will indirectly pull up the return to capital. Thanks to these two factors, China's has high return to capital, which leads to the corresponding high investment. On one hand, high investment directly stimulating economic growth, and one the other hand, it promotes the technological progress and enhances the productivity by the effect of "learning by doing". As a result, the economy as a whole forms a virtuous circle of "high productivity-high return to capital-high investment rate-high economic growth rate". Therefore, China's high investment at present has its rationality, and this growth pattern can be sustained as long as we maintain productivity increases by improving institutional reform and increasing investment in R&D.
利用该方法,本文在建筑寿命38年、设备寿命16年的假定下估算了我国的资本存量,并计算了多种口径的资本回报率。我们发现,基础口径的资本回报率在大多数年份都在15%-20%之间波动,并且没有明显的下降趋势。考虑到我国资本品和产成品相对价格在不同年份波动差异较大,本文进一步考虑了剔除资本利得影响的资本回报率和以1978年不变价计算的资本回报率,发现这几个资本回报率的走势和变动幅度都基本相似,大多数年份仍在15%-20%之间波动。针对学界讨论的生产税净额归属、统计口径调整和存货、所得税处理等问题,本文也进行了讨论,发现经过这些处理后,我国资本回报率仍没有出现明显的下降趋势。因此,我国的高投资是有其微观基础的。
在测算全国资本回报率的基础上,本文进一步测量了各省的资本回报率。本文发现,我国各省的资本回报率均值差异很大,并且各省的资本回报率变动呈现很不相同的模式。从东中西部划分的区域层面上看,东部的资本回报率最高,中部次之,西部最低。东部地区的资本回报率下降非常快,而中部省份的资本回报率变动则相对东部较为平缓,西部的大多数省份的资本回报率在改革以来并没有明显的下降趋势,部分省份还有所上升。并且,在全国范围和东中西部内部,资本回报率都是绝对收敛的,这表明我国的资本配置效率在不断提升。
鉴于资本回报率对投资的重要意义,本文紧接着考察了我国资本回报率变动的原因。本文基于对Solow (1958)分解方法的改进,发现造成我国资本回报率变动的主要原因是各省自身资本回报率的变化(省际因素),而不是资本在具有不同回报率的地区之间流动引起的(结构因素)。省际效应对资本回报率的变动平均而言贡献度为80.86%,而结构效应只贡献了19.14%。并且,在绝大多数年份,结构因素对资本回报率的影响是正向的,而省际效果对资本回报率的影响是负向的。
为了考察为何各省自身资本回报率变动的原因,本文首先在完全竞争的假定下,利用包含人力资本的Solow模型,将资本回报率的变动分为人力资本因素、资本深化因素和生产率因素。结果表明,平均而言,生产率提升和人力资本的增加对资本回报率的贡献分别为34.74%和11.96%,二者相加大约为46.70%,与资本深化的负向贡献大体相当,因此保证了我国资本回报率的稳定性。紧接着,我们放松了完全竞争的假定,在相当宽泛的条件下,从多个方面全面研究了资本回报率的决定因素,并重点探讨了在考虑多种因素后,全要素生产率是否仍对资本回报率有着显著的促进作用。我们的发现是,资本深化、国企份额的增加、出口比重的增大、第一产业比重的上升、资本品价格的上涨和用工成本的上升将降低我国的资本回报率,与此同时,生产率的提高、需求规模的扩大和相应的产成品价格的上涨、第二和第三产业比重的上升将提高我国的资本回报率。随后,我们从变量测度方法、样本离群值、估计方法和遗漏变量以及经济周期和区域划分等多个角度验证了结论的稳健性。
最后,基于资本回报率并不低,从而中国依靠高投资的增长是可持续的这一思路,利用面板向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数,分析了我国生产率、利润率、投资率、增长率四者的相互关系。本文发现,改革以来,我国生产率的提升,一方面促进了经济增长,另一方面带动了资本回报率的提升。而增长率的提升造成的需求规模扩大也会间接拉高我国的资本回报率。在这两个因素的作用下,我国的资本回报率较高,从而导致了相应的高投资。高投资一方面直接拉动了经济的增长,另一方面通过“干中学”效应,促进了我国的技术进步和生产率的提升。如此一来,整个经济形成了一个“高生产率——高利润率——高投资率——高增长率”的良性循环。因此,中国目前的高投资有其合理性,只要不断完善制度改革,加大研发投入,保持生产率的较高增长,我国依靠高投资的经济增长是可以持续的。
Since the reform and opening-up, China has achieved remarkable economic growth. In this process, high investment and high saving have played a important role. However, in recent years, the rising rate of capital formation in China, led to the scholars' concerns about China's over-investment and the sustainability of our economic growth. This dissertation argues that, the key to measure the existence of excessive investment depends on whether the return rate to capital in China has experienced a rapid decline. Since the conclusions of the existing literature are very different, this dissertation firstly surveys the relative literature, and finds that the controversy over the return rate to capital is mainly due to the different concepts and data processing. Some scholars tend to use the concept of micro-economic accounting margin, while others tend to understand the return rate to capital from the perspective of macroeconomic data.
The debates on the return rate to capital based micro-economic data is mainly derives from the data processing methods in accounting as well as the authenticity of the data, while the debates on macroeconomic data focus on the estimate of capital stock. This dissertation holds that the return rate to capital based on macroeconomic data is more comprehensive, and it compasses all aspects of the economy much more better, so we choose it to be a measure of the return rate to capital.
Firstly, following the method proposed by Bai et al (2006), and under the assumption that the durations of life for buildings and equipment in China are38and16years respectively, this dissertation calculates the rate of return on capital of various calibers. We find that, the base case estimate of return rate to capital fluctuates between15%-20%in most years, and there is no clear downward trend. Taking into account that the prices of capital goods and final products fluctuates quite distinct in different years, this dissertation further uses the alternative measures, which are the capital return excluding capital gains and the capital return which is calculated in1978constant prices.
We find that these different measures are basically similar to the base case in most years and they are still fluctuating between15%-20%. Furthermore, this dissertation discusses several problems such as the attribution of Net Product Tax, statistical standards adjustment, and the processing methods of inventory and income tax. It reaches the conclusion that there is still no clear downward trend of the return to capital after these treatments. Therefore, there are solid microeconomic foudations behind China's high investment.
Secondly, this dissertation estimates the return rate to capital of China's provinces in each year from1978to2010, and it find that the return rate to capital differs and presents very distinct change patterns between provinces. When we take our perspective on the regional level, we find that the eastern region has the highest return rate to capital, while the central region follows and the western region gets the lowest. The return rate to capital in the eastern region has declined very fast, while the trend in the central region is relatively gentler, and there is no clear downward trend in the west since the reform and opening-up, even more there are some provinces that their capital returns also rise. In addition, the return rate to capital appears significant beta-convergence both in country level and region level, which shows that the efficiency of capital allocation in China has improved.
Thirdly, this dissertation examines the reasons for the change of the return to capital in China. It improves the decomposition method that proposed by Solow (1958) and find that the main reason for the change in China's capital return is the own changes in return rate to capital due to different provinces (intra-provincial factors), rather than the flow of capital in the provinces where distinct return rates to capital exist (structural factors). On average, the contribution of intra-provincial effect is80.86%, while the structural effects only contribute19.14%. And in most years, the impact of structural factors on the rate of return on capital is positive, while the impact of the provincial effect of the rate of return on capital is negative.
In order to investigate why the rate of return on capital would change differently in provinces, we decompose the changes of return rate to capital into the human capital factor, capital deepening factor and TFP factor based on the assumptions of perfect competition. The empirical results show that, on average, productivity and human capital increase the return to capital34.74%and11.96%respectively, the two add up to about46.70%, roughly equivalent to the negative contribution of capital deepening, which ensures the stability of China's rate of return on capital. Then, we relax the assumptions of perfect competition, and find that total factor productivity still has a significant role in promoting capital return in pretty relaxed conditions. In addition, capital deepening, the increase in the share of the state-owned enterprises, the increase in exports, the rising proportion of the primary industry, the increase in capital goods prices and labor costs will reduce the rate of return on capital, in contrast, the increase in productivity, expansion of the scale of demand and the corresponding product prices, the rise of the proportion of secondary industry or tertiary industry will increase the rate of return on capital. Then, we verify the robustness of our conclusion from several perspectives, which is the measure methods of the variables, the outliers, the estimation methods and omitted variables, as well as the economic cycle and regional division.
Finally, we use Panel Vector Autoregression Model (PVAR) and impulse response function (IRF) to analyze the relationship of four important variables, which are total factor productivity, return rate to capital, investment rate, and economic growth rate. This dissertation reaches the conclusion that the increase of China's productivity has not only promoted economic growth but also enhance the return to capital, while the ascension of the growth rate will indirectly pull up the return to capital. Thanks to these two factors, China's has high return to capital, which leads to the corresponding high investment. On one hand, high investment directly stimulating economic growth, and one the other hand, it promotes the technological progress and enhances the productivity by the effect of "learning by doing". As a result, the economy as a whole forms a virtuous circle of "high productivity-high return to capital-high investment rate-high economic growth rate". Therefore, China's high investment at present has its rationality, and this growth pattern can be sustained as long as we maintain productivity increases by improving institutional reform and increasing investment in R&D.
引文
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