福建闽南浅滩渔场中上层渔业资源存量及价值评估
|
摘要
我国海洋渔业捕捞量占到世界海洋渔业总捕捞量的16%,是世界海洋渔业捕捞量最大的国家。过去几十年的过度捕捞、破坏性的捕捞方式以及渔业管理政策的失灵,导致我国海洋渔业资源的严重衰退。对海洋渔业资源存量和价值进行系统准确评估,是制定科学有效的渔业管理政策的基础性工作。但是,我国渔业管理部门现有的渔业调查统计无法满足渔业资源存量评估的数据需要。如何整理出一套较为完整、客观的渔业社会经济学数据,如何在数据有限的条件下,建立一套适宜的评估方法和模型,对渔业资源存量和价值进行评估是我国渔业学术界和管理界面临的重要课题。
本论文利用渔业资源学和渔业资源经济学的方法和理论,围绕以上重大问题,以福建闽南浅滩渔场中上层鱼类资源为研究案例开展研究,取得了如下研究成果:
1)通过对国际国内渔业资源评估理论和实践的研究,建立了一套在有限数据条件下的综合渔业资源评估模型,包括剩余产量模型、生态经济模型、渔业资源价值评估模型和渔业资源损耗评估模型。
2)数据收集和甄别。由于目前渔业管理部门关于渔业的调查和统计不足以提供渔业资源评估所需要的数据,研究采用现场调查获取第一手资料、查阅历史统计年鉴、文献检索获取二手资料、专家咨询等方法,收集了研究对象21年的渔获量、捕捞力量、单位成本和单位上岸价格等时间序列数据,确定了灯光围网作业与闽南浅滩渔场中上层鱼类资源的对应关系。
3)最优评估模型识别。论文将收集到的资料输入建立的模型,利用E—views等统计软件,估计模型参数值,并通过参数比较和统计检验量分析,筛选和识别出评估闽南浅滩中上层鱼类资源及其价值的最优模型。
4)闽南浅滩渔场中上层鱼类资源存量及价值评估。将21年时间序列数据输入所识别的最优评估模型,对闽南浅滩渔场中上层鱼类资源进行了系统评估,包括不同产权状况、静态和动态均衡的捕捞力量、捕捞量和资源存量评估及渔业资源价值和资源损耗评估。
5)根据资源存量和价值评估结果,结合闽南浅滩渔场的实际情况,提出相关渔业资源管理的政策建议。
China is the biggest fishery harvest country in the world,which occupy 16%of total world ocean catch.From 1950s,overfishing,destructive exploiting pracitces and policy failure have led to serious resource depletion.Systematic and accurate assessment of fishery stock and its value is the base of sound fishery policy making, however,available fishery statistical data provided by current fishery authority are insufficient to the practical research needs.How to get a relative complete and objective social-economic fishery data,and how to build a set of applicable methods and models to assess fishery stock and its value under the condition of limited data have challenged fishery academic and management fields for several decades.
This dissertation presents a systematic assessment of pelagic fisheries stock and its value in Minnan bank ground employing the methods and theories of fisheries resources and natural resource economic,and contributes to the literature on fishery resource management in several ways.
Firstly,the study demonstrates the theory and practice of fishery recourses assessment in both international and domestic,and establishes a integrated approachable fishery assessment method and models under the condition of limited data,including surplus production models,bio-economics models,resources value evaluation models and resources depletion evaluation models.
Secondly,the study collects innovatively 21 years time series data,including catch,effort,unit cost and unit landing price,etc.Because the fishery investigation and statistics provided by current fishery management department are unable to meet practical research needs,the author found the special corresponding relation between light seine fishery and pelagic fisheries by spot investigation,checking statistical books and literatures,and expertise consultancy,to accomplish the data collection
Thirdly,the dissertation identifies optimal assessment models of research sit.The study inputs the collected data into established models;estimates the parameters of every possible model using the E-views software.The optimal assessment models of pelagic fisheries stock and value in Minnan bank ground are identified by comparing the statistical test variables and parameters.
Fourthly,the study assesses the pelagic fisheries stock and value in Minnan bank ground.This thesis put the 21 years time series data into identified optimal models,to value pelagic fisheries stock systematically,which included the condition of different property right,assessment of different effort,catch and stock under static and dynamic equilibrium,and the depletion of fishery stock value.
Lastly,the study proposes the possible fishery polices options according to the research results and natural and socioeconomic situations of Minnan bank ground.
本论文利用渔业资源学和渔业资源经济学的方法和理论,围绕以上重大问题,以福建闽南浅滩渔场中上层鱼类资源为研究案例开展研究,取得了如下研究成果:
1)通过对国际国内渔业资源评估理论和实践的研究,建立了一套在有限数据条件下的综合渔业资源评估模型,包括剩余产量模型、生态经济模型、渔业资源价值评估模型和渔业资源损耗评估模型。
2)数据收集和甄别。由于目前渔业管理部门关于渔业的调查和统计不足以提供渔业资源评估所需要的数据,研究采用现场调查获取第一手资料、查阅历史统计年鉴、文献检索获取二手资料、专家咨询等方法,收集了研究对象21年的渔获量、捕捞力量、单位成本和单位上岸价格等时间序列数据,确定了灯光围网作业与闽南浅滩渔场中上层鱼类资源的对应关系。
3)最优评估模型识别。论文将收集到的资料输入建立的模型,利用E—views等统计软件,估计模型参数值,并通过参数比较和统计检验量分析,筛选和识别出评估闽南浅滩中上层鱼类资源及其价值的最优模型。
4)闽南浅滩渔场中上层鱼类资源存量及价值评估。将21年时间序列数据输入所识别的最优评估模型,对闽南浅滩渔场中上层鱼类资源进行了系统评估,包括不同产权状况、静态和动态均衡的捕捞力量、捕捞量和资源存量评估及渔业资源价值和资源损耗评估。
5)根据资源存量和价值评估结果,结合闽南浅滩渔场的实际情况,提出相关渔业资源管理的政策建议。
China is the biggest fishery harvest country in the world,which occupy 16%of total world ocean catch.From 1950s,overfishing,destructive exploiting pracitces and policy failure have led to serious resource depletion.Systematic and accurate assessment of fishery stock and its value is the base of sound fishery policy making, however,available fishery statistical data provided by current fishery authority are insufficient to the practical research needs.How to get a relative complete and objective social-economic fishery data,and how to build a set of applicable methods and models to assess fishery stock and its value under the condition of limited data have challenged fishery academic and management fields for several decades.
This dissertation presents a systematic assessment of pelagic fisheries stock and its value in Minnan bank ground employing the methods and theories of fisheries resources and natural resource economic,and contributes to the literature on fishery resource management in several ways.
Firstly,the study demonstrates the theory and practice of fishery recourses assessment in both international and domestic,and establishes a integrated approachable fishery assessment method and models under the condition of limited data,including surplus production models,bio-economics models,resources value evaluation models and resources depletion evaluation models.
Secondly,the study collects innovatively 21 years time series data,including catch,effort,unit cost and unit landing price,etc.Because the fishery investigation and statistics provided by current fishery management department are unable to meet practical research needs,the author found the special corresponding relation between light seine fishery and pelagic fisheries by spot investigation,checking statistical books and literatures,and expertise consultancy,to accomplish the data collection
Thirdly,the dissertation identifies optimal assessment models of research sit.The study inputs the collected data into established models;estimates the parameters of every possible model using the E-views software.The optimal assessment models of pelagic fisheries stock and value in Minnan bank ground are identified by comparing the statistical test variables and parameters.
Fourthly,the study assesses the pelagic fisheries stock and value in Minnan bank ground.This thesis put the 21 years time series data into identified optimal models,to value pelagic fisheries stock systematically,which included the condition of different property right,assessment of different effort,catch and stock under static and dynamic equilibrium,and the depletion of fishery stock value.
Lastly,the study proposes the possible fishery polices options according to the research results and natural and socioeconomic situations of Minnan bank ground.
引文
[1]Allen K.R..A personal retrospect of the history of fisheries modelling[J].Population Dynamics for Fisheries Management,Australian Society for Fish Biology,1994,1:21-28.
[2]Anderson L.G..The Economics of Fisheries Management[M].John Hopkins University Press.1977.
[3]Beverton R.J.H.,Holt S.J..Combining yield-per-recruit with a stock-recruit model[J],On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations,1957,18(3):338-340.
[4]Beverton R.J.H.,Holt S.J..Application of population models of part 1[J].On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations,1957,17:309-330.
[5]Beverton R.J.H.,Holt S.J..The theory of fishing[C].Key Papers on Fish Populations,1956,1:37-109.
[6]Brock W.A.,Xepapadeas.A..Valuing biodiversity from an economic perspective:a unified economic,ecological,and genetic approach[J].American Economic Review,2003,93:1597-1614.
[7]Hvingel C.et al.,A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options,using Bayesian methods[J].Journal of Marine Science,2006,63(1):68-82.
[8]Clarke C.W..Mathematical bioeconomics: the optimal management of renewable resources[M].John Wiley & Sons Inc,1976.
[9]Clarke R.P.,Yoshimoto S.S.,Pooley S.G..A bioeconomic analysis of the northwestern hawaiian islands lobster fishery[J].Marine Resource Economics,1992,7(3):115-140.
[10]Cooke J.G.On the relationship between catch per unit effort and whale abundance[R].Int.Whal.Comm,1985,35:511-519.
[11]Crowards T.M..Natural resource accounting:a case study of Zimbabwe [J].Environmental and Resource Economics,1996,7:213-241.
[12]Cruz W.,Repetto R..The environmental effects of stabilization and structural adjustment programs:The Philippine case[M].World Resources Institute,Washington D.C.,1992.
[13]Cunningham S.,Dunn M.R.,Whitmarsh.D..Fisheries Economics:An Introduction[M].London:Mansell Publishing Limited.1985.
[14]Cushing,D..Dependence of recruitment on parent stock [J].Environmental and Resource Economics,1973,30:1963-1976.
[15]Dasgupta P.,Maler K.G.The economics of non-convex ecosystems:introduction [J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2003,26:499-525.
[16]DeLury D.B..On estimation of biological populations[J].Biometrics,1947,3:145-167.
[17]Deriso R.B..Harvesting strategies and parameter estimation for an age-structured model[J].CJFAS,1980,37:268-282.
[18]Dorn M.W..Advice on west coast rockfish harvest rates from bayesian meta-analysis of stock-recruitment relationships [J].North American Journal of Fisheries Management,2002.22:280-300.
[19]El Serafy.S..The proper calculation of income from depletable matural resources[J].Environmental Accounting for Sustainable Development,1989,3:10-18.
[20]Agbesi E.N..Environmental influence on marine pelagic fish:evidence from bioeconomic modeling[M].The University of Rhode Island.2002.
[21]FAO,全球环境展望指标-沿海和海洋地区,http://www.un.org/chinese/esa/environment/outlook2006/coastal.htm.
[22]Fletcher R..On the restructuring of the Pella-Tomlinson system[J].Fish.Bull.,1978,76:515-521.
[23]Fournier D.A.,Hampton.J..Preliminary analyses of South Pacific albacore catch,effort and length-frequency data,using an age-structured,length-based model with spatial stucture[C].ICCAT 25th anniversary tuna symposium,Azores Portugal.2000.
[24]Fox W.W.,Jr..An exponential surplus-yield model for optimizing exploited fish populations[J].Transactions of the American Fisheries Society,1970,99:80-88.
[25]Tetsuichiro R.Temperature-dependent stock-recruitment model for walleye pollock (theragra chalcogramma) around northern Japan[J].Fisheries Oceanography,2007,16(6):515-525(11)
[26]Gislason H,Helgason Th..Species interactions in assessment of fish stocks with special application to the North Sea.Dana[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,1985,5:1-44.
[27]Goodyear C.P..Spawning stock biomass per recruit in fisheries management:foundation and current use[J].Can.Spec.Publ.FAS,1993,120:67-81.
[28]Graham M..Modern theory of exploiting fishery,and application to North Sea trawling[J].Cons.Explor,1935,10:264-274.
[29]Gulland J.A..Estimation of mortality rates[R].Arctic Fisheries Workshop Group Report.ICES CM.,1965.
[30]Hannesson R..Bioeconomic Analysis of Fisheries[M].UK:Fishing News Books.1993.
[31]Hilborn R.,Walters C.J..Quantitative fisheries stock assessment:choice,dynamics and uncertainty[M].Chapman and Hall,1992,2:177-178.
[32]Hilborn R..et al.,The precautionary approach and risk management.Can they increase the probability of success in fishery management? [J].Can.J.Fish.Aquat.Sci.,2001,58:99-107.
[33]Milon J.W..et al.,The performance of florida's spiny lobster trap certificate program[R].Florida Sea Grant College Program,University of Florida,1999,SGR 116.
[34]Zheng J,Murphy M.C,Kruse G.H..Updated length-based population model and stock-recruitment relationships for red king crab in Bristol Bay,Alaska[J].Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin,1995,2(2):114-124.
[35]Hartwick J.M.,Olewiler N.D.,The Economics of Natural Resource Use[M],2nd edition,2000.
[36]John M.G..et al.,TAC assessment for single species,multiple fishery-a case study of the Hairtail (trichiurus lepturus) fishery[M].University of Rhode island and Korea maritime institute,2006.
[37]Jones R..Assessing the long term effects of changes in fishing effort and mesh size from length composition data[J],ICES CM.,1974,33:13.
[38]Laevastu T..Marine climate,weather and fisheries[M].London:Fishing news books.1993.
[39]Landefeld J.S.,Hines J.R..National Accounting for Nonrenewable Natural Resources in the Mining Industries[J].Review of Income and Wealth,1985,31(1):1-20.
[40]Lange G,Motinga.D.J..The contribution of resource rents from minerals and fisheries to sustainable economic development in Namibia,1980 to 1995,with D.Motinga.Research Discussion Paper #19[M].Environmental Affairs,Ministry of Environment and Tourism:Windhoek,Namibia.1997.
[41]Leslie P.H.,Davis.D.H.S..An attempt to determine the absolute number of rats on a given area[J].Anim.Ecol.,1939,8:94-113.
[42]MacCall A.D..Status of bocac-fisheries management decisions,espe-cio off California in 2003[J].Pacific Fishery Management Council,2003,1:56.
[43]May R.M.,Beddington.J.R.,Horwood J.W.,Shepherd J.G.Exploiting natural populations in an uncertain world[J].Math.Biosci.,1978,42:219-252.
[44]Meyer R.,Millar R.B..BUGS for bayesian state-space modeling[M].Statistical Modeling,1999,588-592.
[45]Moran P.A.P..A mathematical theory of animal trapping[J].Biometrika,1951,38:307-311.
[46]Munch S.B.,Kottas A.,Mangel M..Bayesian non-parametric analysis of stock recruitment relationships.Can.J.Fish.Aquat.Sci.,2005,62:1808-1821.
[47]Needle G L..Recruitment models:diagnosis and prognosisa[J].Rev.Fish Biol.Fish.,2002,11:95.
[48]Paulik G J.,Gales L.E..Allometric growth and the beverton and holt yield equation[J].Trans.Am.Fish.Soc,1964,93:369-381.
[49]Pauly D..On the interrelationships between natural mortality,growth parameters,and mean environmental temperature in 175 fish stocks[J].Cons.Int.Explor.,1980,39(2):175-192.
[50]Pauly D.,Christensen U.V.,Sumalia U.R..et al.,Toward sustainability in world fisheries[J].Nature,2002,428:689-695.
[51]Pella J.J.,Tomlinson P.K..A generalized stock production model[C].Key Papers on Fish Populations,1969,303-341.
[52]Pope J.G.An investigation of the accuracy of virtual population analysis using cohort analysis[J].Res Bull.Int.Commn.NW.Atl.Fish.,1972,9:65-74.
[53]Prager M.H..A suite of extensions to a nonequilibrium surplus-production model[J].Fishery Bulletin,1994,92:374-389.
[54]Punt A.E.,et al.,Fisheries stock assessment and decision analysis:A review of the Bayesian approach[J].Rev.Fish.Biol.Fish.,1997,7:35-63.
[55]Peterman R.M..Extensions of the ricker stock-recruitment model to include time-varying parameters and spatial structure[M].International Congress on the Biology of Fish,Vancouver,B.C.2002.
[56]Beverton R.,Holt S..Application of population models of part 1[J].On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations,1957,17:309-330.
[57]Repetto R.,et al.,Wasting Assets:Natural Resources in the National Income Accounts[M].Washington,D.C.:World Resources Institute,1989.
[58]Richards F.J..A flexible growth function for empirical use[J].Journal of Experimental Biology,1959,10:290-300.
[59]Ricker W.E..Stock and recruitment[C].Key Papers on Fish Populations,1954,151-225.
[60]Rogers J.B..Darkblotched rock fish (Sebastes crameri) 2003 stock status and rebuilding analysis[J].Pacific Fishery Management Council,7700 NE Ambassador Place,Portland,OR.,2003,1:56.
[61]Sanchirico J.N.,Wilen.J.E..Bioeconomics of spatial exploitation in a patchy environment[J].Environmental Economics and Management,1999,37:129-150.
[62]Schaefer M.B..Some aspects of the dynamics of populations.important for the management of the commercial marine fisheries[J].Bull.Int.Am.Trop.Tuna Comm.,1954,1(2):27-56.
[63]Schaefer M.B..A study of the dynamics of the fishery for yellowfin tuna in the eastern tropical pacific ocean.Bulletin of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission,1957,2:247-268.
[64]Schnute J..Improved estimates from the Schaefer production model: theoretical considerations[J].Fisheries Research Board of Canada ,1977,34:583-603.
[65]Seber G.A.E,Le Cren.E.D..Estimating population parameters from catches large relative to the population [J].Anim.Ecol.,1967,36:631-643.
[66]Shepherd J.G.A versatile new stock-recruitment relationship for fisheries and construction of sustainable yield curves[J].Cons.Int.Explor.,1982,40:65-75.
[67]Shepherd J.G,Cushing,D.H..A mechanism for density-dependent survival of larval fish as the basis of a stock-recruitment relationship[J].Cons.Int.Explor.,1980,39:160-167.
[68]Yew T.S,Noh K.M.,Abdullah N.M.R..Valuing fisheries depreciation in natural resource accounting:the pelagic fisheries in northeast peninsular malaysia[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2000,15:227-241.
[69]Sissenwine M.P.and Shepherd.J.G.An alternative perspective on recruitment overfishing and biological reference points[J].CJFAS,1987,44:913-918.
[70]Smith M.D..Fishing Yield,Curvature and spatial behavior:implications for modeling marine reserves[J].Natural Resource Modeling ,2004,17:273-98.
[71]Soile Kulmala.,et al.,Reconciling economic and biological modeling of migratory fish stocks:Optimal management of the Atlantic salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea[J].Ecological Economics.,2008,64(4):716-728.
[72]Solorzano R.,et al.,Accounts Overdue:Natural Resource Depreciation in Costa Rica[M],World Resources Institute,Washington,D.C.,1991.
[73]Stefansson G,Skiiladottir U.,Petursson G.The use of a stock production type model in evaluating the offshore Pandalus borealis stock of north Icelandic waters,including the predation of northern shrimp by cod[J].ICES C.M.Doc,1994,25:13.
[74]Tai S.et al.,Valuing fisheries depreciation in natural resource accounting[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2000,15:227-241.
[75]Sathiendrakumar R.,Tisdell C.A..Optimal economic fishery effort in the Maldivian tuna fishery:an appropriate model[J].Marine Resource Economics,1987,4:15-44.
[76]UNEP(联合国环境规划署)编著．全球环境展望年鉴[M]．北京：中国环境科学出版社,2004．
[77]Walters C.J..A generalized computer simulation model for fish population srudies[J].Trans.Am.Fish.Soc,1969,98:505-512.
[78]Williams E.H.,Shertzer.K.W..Implications of life-history invariants for biological reference points used in fishery management[J].Can.J.Fish.Aquat.Sci.,2003,60:710-720.
[79]Zippin C..An evaluation of the removal method of estimating animal populations[J].Biometrics,1956,12:163-189.
[80]Zippin C..The removal method of population estimation[J].Wildl.Mgmt.1958,22:82-90.
[81]陈卫忠.用剩余产量模型专家系统(CLIMPROD)评估东海鲐鲹鱼类最大持续产量[J].水产学报,1997,4(21):404.408.
[82]戴天元等.福建海区渔业资源生态容量和海洋捕捞业管理研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[83]方水美,杨圣云.闽南-台湾浅滩渔场蓝圆鲹和鲐鱼群聚空间分布的研究[J].台湾海峡,2006,3:69-75.
[84]福建省统计局编.2008年福建省统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[85]李大海等.考虑价格变动因素的 Gordon-Schaefer 模型[J].中国渔业经济,2006,3:55-56,63
[86]苏新红,方水美,郑奕等.福建省灯光围网作业的捕捞能力[J].水产学报,2004,28(3):303-310.
[87]孙利东等.连续 Schaefer 产量模型在三种模拟渔业评估中的应用[J].海洋湖沼通报,2004.4:75-81.
[88]朱进福.闽南-台湾浅滩渔场光诱渔业的持续发展与对策[J].福建水产,2001,2:44-51.
[2]Anderson L.G..The Economics of Fisheries Management[M].John Hopkins University Press.1977.
[3]Beverton R.J.H.,Holt S.J..Combining yield-per-recruit with a stock-recruit model[J],On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations,1957,18(3):338-340.
[4]Beverton R.J.H.,Holt S.J..Application of population models of part 1[J].On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations,1957,17:309-330.
[5]Beverton R.J.H.,Holt S.J..The theory of fishing[C].Key Papers on Fish Populations,1956,1:37-109.
[6]Brock W.A.,Xepapadeas.A..Valuing biodiversity from an economic perspective:a unified economic,ecological,and genetic approach[J].American Economic Review,2003,93:1597-1614.
[7]Hvingel C.et al.,A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options,using Bayesian methods[J].Journal of Marine Science,2006,63(1):68-82.
[8]Clarke C.W..Mathematical bioeconomics: the optimal management of renewable resources[M].John Wiley & Sons Inc,1976.
[9]Clarke R.P.,Yoshimoto S.S.,Pooley S.G..A bioeconomic analysis of the northwestern hawaiian islands lobster fishery[J].Marine Resource Economics,1992,7(3):115-140.
[10]Cooke J.G.On the relationship between catch per unit effort and whale abundance[R].Int.Whal.Comm,1985,35:511-519.
[11]Crowards T.M..Natural resource accounting:a case study of Zimbabwe [J].Environmental and Resource Economics,1996,7:213-241.
[12]Cruz W.,Repetto R..The environmental effects of stabilization and structural adjustment programs:The Philippine case[M].World Resources Institute,Washington D.C.,1992.
[13]Cunningham S.,Dunn M.R.,Whitmarsh.D..Fisheries Economics:An Introduction[M].London:Mansell Publishing Limited.1985.
[14]Cushing,D..Dependence of recruitment on parent stock [J].Environmental and Resource Economics,1973,30:1963-1976.
[15]Dasgupta P.,Maler K.G.The economics of non-convex ecosystems:introduction [J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2003,26:499-525.
[16]DeLury D.B..On estimation of biological populations[J].Biometrics,1947,3:145-167.
[17]Deriso R.B..Harvesting strategies and parameter estimation for an age-structured model[J].CJFAS,1980,37:268-282.
[18]Dorn M.W..Advice on west coast rockfish harvest rates from bayesian meta-analysis of stock-recruitment relationships [J].North American Journal of Fisheries Management,2002.22:280-300.
[19]El Serafy.S..The proper calculation of income from depletable matural resources[J].Environmental Accounting for Sustainable Development,1989,3:10-18.
[20]Agbesi E.N..Environmental influence on marine pelagic fish:evidence from bioeconomic modeling[M].The University of Rhode Island.2002.
[21]FAO,全球环境展望指标-沿海和海洋地区,http://www.un.org/chinese/esa/environment/outlook2006/coastal.htm.
[22]Fletcher R..On the restructuring of the Pella-Tomlinson system[J].Fish.Bull.,1978,76:515-521.
[23]Fournier D.A.,Hampton.J..Preliminary analyses of South Pacific albacore catch,effort and length-frequency data,using an age-structured,length-based model with spatial stucture[C].ICCAT 25th anniversary tuna symposium,Azores Portugal.2000.
[24]Fox W.W.,Jr..An exponential surplus-yield model for optimizing exploited fish populations[J].Transactions of the American Fisheries Society,1970,99:80-88.
[25]Tetsuichiro R.Temperature-dependent stock-recruitment model for walleye pollock (theragra chalcogramma) around northern Japan[J].Fisheries Oceanography,2007,16(6):515-525(11)
[26]Gislason H,Helgason Th..Species interactions in assessment of fish stocks with special application to the North Sea.Dana[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,1985,5:1-44.
[27]Goodyear C.P..Spawning stock biomass per recruit in fisheries management:foundation and current use[J].Can.Spec.Publ.FAS,1993,120:67-81.
[28]Graham M..Modern theory of exploiting fishery,and application to North Sea trawling[J].Cons.Explor,1935,10:264-274.
[29]Gulland J.A..Estimation of mortality rates[R].Arctic Fisheries Workshop Group Report.ICES CM.,1965.
[30]Hannesson R..Bioeconomic Analysis of Fisheries[M].UK:Fishing News Books.1993.
[31]Hilborn R.,Walters C.J..Quantitative fisheries stock assessment:choice,dynamics and uncertainty[M].Chapman and Hall,1992,2:177-178.
[32]Hilborn R..et al.,The precautionary approach and risk management.Can they increase the probability of success in fishery management? [J].Can.J.Fish.Aquat.Sci.,2001,58:99-107.
[33]Milon J.W..et al.,The performance of florida's spiny lobster trap certificate program[R].Florida Sea Grant College Program,University of Florida,1999,SGR 116.
[34]Zheng J,Murphy M.C,Kruse G.H..Updated length-based population model and stock-recruitment relationships for red king crab in Bristol Bay,Alaska[J].Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin,1995,2(2):114-124.
[35]Hartwick J.M.,Olewiler N.D.,The Economics of Natural Resource Use[M],2nd edition,2000.
[36]John M.G..et al.,TAC assessment for single species,multiple fishery-a case study of the Hairtail (trichiurus lepturus) fishery[M].University of Rhode island and Korea maritime institute,2006.
[37]Jones R..Assessing the long term effects of changes in fishing effort and mesh size from length composition data[J],ICES CM.,1974,33:13.
[38]Laevastu T..Marine climate,weather and fisheries[M].London:Fishing news books.1993.
[39]Landefeld J.S.,Hines J.R..National Accounting for Nonrenewable Natural Resources in the Mining Industries[J].Review of Income and Wealth,1985,31(1):1-20.
[40]Lange G,Motinga.D.J..The contribution of resource rents from minerals and fisheries to sustainable economic development in Namibia,1980 to 1995,with D.Motinga.Research Discussion Paper #19[M].Environmental Affairs,Ministry of Environment and Tourism:Windhoek,Namibia.1997.
[41]Leslie P.H.,Davis.D.H.S..An attempt to determine the absolute number of rats on a given area[J].Anim.Ecol.,1939,8:94-113.
[42]MacCall A.D..Status of bocac-fisheries management decisions,espe-cio off California in 2003[J].Pacific Fishery Management Council,2003,1:56.
[43]May R.M.,Beddington.J.R.,Horwood J.W.,Shepherd J.G.Exploiting natural populations in an uncertain world[J].Math.Biosci.,1978,42:219-252.
[44]Meyer R.,Millar R.B..BUGS for bayesian state-space modeling[M].Statistical Modeling,1999,588-592.
[45]Moran P.A.P..A mathematical theory of animal trapping[J].Biometrika,1951,38:307-311.
[46]Munch S.B.,Kottas A.,Mangel M..Bayesian non-parametric analysis of stock recruitment relationships.Can.J.Fish.Aquat.Sci.,2005,62:1808-1821.
[47]Needle G L..Recruitment models:diagnosis and prognosisa[J].Rev.Fish Biol.Fish.,2002,11:95.
[48]Paulik G J.,Gales L.E..Allometric growth and the beverton and holt yield equation[J].Trans.Am.Fish.Soc,1964,93:369-381.
[49]Pauly D..On the interrelationships between natural mortality,growth parameters,and mean environmental temperature in 175 fish stocks[J].Cons.Int.Explor.,1980,39(2):175-192.
[50]Pauly D.,Christensen U.V.,Sumalia U.R..et al.,Toward sustainability in world fisheries[J].Nature,2002,428:689-695.
[51]Pella J.J.,Tomlinson P.K..A generalized stock production model[C].Key Papers on Fish Populations,1969,303-341.
[52]Pope J.G.An investigation of the accuracy of virtual population analysis using cohort analysis[J].Res Bull.Int.Commn.NW.Atl.Fish.,1972,9:65-74.
[53]Prager M.H..A suite of extensions to a nonequilibrium surplus-production model[J].Fishery Bulletin,1994,92:374-389.
[54]Punt A.E.,et al.,Fisheries stock assessment and decision analysis:A review of the Bayesian approach[J].Rev.Fish.Biol.Fish.,1997,7:35-63.
[55]Peterman R.M..Extensions of the ricker stock-recruitment model to include time-varying parameters and spatial structure[M].International Congress on the Biology of Fish,Vancouver,B.C.2002.
[56]Beverton R.,Holt S..Application of population models of part 1[J].On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations,1957,17:309-330.
[57]Repetto R.,et al.,Wasting Assets:Natural Resources in the National Income Accounts[M].Washington,D.C.:World Resources Institute,1989.
[58]Richards F.J..A flexible growth function for empirical use[J].Journal of Experimental Biology,1959,10:290-300.
[59]Ricker W.E..Stock and recruitment[C].Key Papers on Fish Populations,1954,151-225.
[60]Rogers J.B..Darkblotched rock fish (Sebastes crameri) 2003 stock status and rebuilding analysis[J].Pacific Fishery Management Council,7700 NE Ambassador Place,Portland,OR.,2003,1:56.
[61]Sanchirico J.N.,Wilen.J.E..Bioeconomics of spatial exploitation in a patchy environment[J].Environmental Economics and Management,1999,37:129-150.
[62]Schaefer M.B..Some aspects of the dynamics of populations.important for the management of the commercial marine fisheries[J].Bull.Int.Am.Trop.Tuna Comm.,1954,1(2):27-56.
[63]Schaefer M.B..A study of the dynamics of the fishery for yellowfin tuna in the eastern tropical pacific ocean.Bulletin of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission,1957,2:247-268.
[64]Schnute J..Improved estimates from the Schaefer production model: theoretical considerations[J].Fisheries Research Board of Canada ,1977,34:583-603.
[65]Seber G.A.E,Le Cren.E.D..Estimating population parameters from catches large relative to the population [J].Anim.Ecol.,1967,36:631-643.
[66]Shepherd J.G.A versatile new stock-recruitment relationship for fisheries and construction of sustainable yield curves[J].Cons.Int.Explor.,1982,40:65-75.
[67]Shepherd J.G,Cushing,D.H..A mechanism for density-dependent survival of larval fish as the basis of a stock-recruitment relationship[J].Cons.Int.Explor.,1980,39:160-167.
[68]Yew T.S,Noh K.M.,Abdullah N.M.R..Valuing fisheries depreciation in natural resource accounting:the pelagic fisheries in northeast peninsular malaysia[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2000,15:227-241.
[69]Sissenwine M.P.and Shepherd.J.G.An alternative perspective on recruitment overfishing and biological reference points[J].CJFAS,1987,44:913-918.
[70]Smith M.D..Fishing Yield,Curvature and spatial behavior:implications for modeling marine reserves[J].Natural Resource Modeling ,2004,17:273-98.
[71]Soile Kulmala.,et al.,Reconciling economic and biological modeling of migratory fish stocks:Optimal management of the Atlantic salmon fishery in the Baltic Sea[J].Ecological Economics.,2008,64(4):716-728.
[72]Solorzano R.,et al.,Accounts Overdue:Natural Resource Depreciation in Costa Rica[M],World Resources Institute,Washington,D.C.,1991.
[73]Stefansson G,Skiiladottir U.,Petursson G.The use of a stock production type model in evaluating the offshore Pandalus borealis stock of north Icelandic waters,including the predation of northern shrimp by cod[J].ICES C.M.Doc,1994,25:13.
[74]Tai S.et al.,Valuing fisheries depreciation in natural resource accounting[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2000,15:227-241.
[75]Sathiendrakumar R.,Tisdell C.A..Optimal economic fishery effort in the Maldivian tuna fishery:an appropriate model[J].Marine Resource Economics,1987,4:15-44.
[76]UNEP(联合国环境规划署)编著．全球环境展望年鉴[M]．北京：中国环境科学出版社,2004．
[77]Walters C.J..A generalized computer simulation model for fish population srudies[J].Trans.Am.Fish.Soc,1969,98:505-512.
[78]Williams E.H.,Shertzer.K.W..Implications of life-history invariants for biological reference points used in fishery management[J].Can.J.Fish.Aquat.Sci.,2003,60:710-720.
[79]Zippin C..An evaluation of the removal method of estimating animal populations[J].Biometrics,1956,12:163-189.
[80]Zippin C..The removal method of population estimation[J].Wildl.Mgmt.1958,22:82-90.
[81]陈卫忠.用剩余产量模型专家系统(CLIMPROD)评估东海鲐鲹鱼类最大持续产量[J].水产学报,1997,4(21):404.408.
[82]戴天元等.福建海区渔业资源生态容量和海洋捕捞业管理研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[83]方水美,杨圣云.闽南-台湾浅滩渔场蓝圆鲹和鲐鱼群聚空间分布的研究[J].台湾海峡,2006,3:69-75.
[84]福建省统计局编.2008年福建省统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[85]李大海等.考虑价格变动因素的 Gordon-Schaefer 模型[J].中国渔业经济,2006,3:55-56,63
[86]苏新红,方水美,郑奕等.福建省灯光围网作业的捕捞能力[J].水产学报,2004,28(3):303-310.
[87]孙利东等.连续 Schaefer 产量模型在三种模拟渔业评估中的应用[J].海洋湖沼通报,2004.4:75-81.
[88]朱进福.闽南-台湾浅滩渔场光诱渔业的持续发展与对策[J].福建水产,2001,2:44-51.