天津市公路现代化发展的评价研究
摘要
交通现代化是社会经济现代化的基础设施保障,实现社会经济现代化首先要使交通现代化提前一个阶段实现。公路是交通大系统中一个重要的子系统,研究交通现代化要从研究公路现代化开始。研究公路现代化的发展,首先要对公路现状和需求进行科学的调查与评价,这是公路规划和建设的基础工作。科学、准确的评价才能够使公路规划和建设满足社会经济的需求并适度超前。
为了保障社会经济大系统现代化的顺利实现,有必要立足社会大系统的现代化进程,对公路现代化的发展程度进行科学、系统、完整地评价,从而有效地把握公路现代化的发展进程,为制定公路发展规划提供科学有力的依据。因此,建立一套立足于社会大系统现代化的,系统的、科学的、完整的公路现代化评价指标体系;选择严格、合理的评价方法成为公路现代化发展的迫切要求。
本文首先将系统论与现代化理论结合起来,依照系统论的观点将现代化理论从不同角度逐层分解分析,建立系统、科学、完善的天津市公路现代化研究的理论体系框架。利用大量详实的数据对天津市公路网的现状做出准确的描述,分析天津市目前公路网的发展是否能够满足社会经济的发展且有一定的超前性;纠正了长期以来,由于许多人为因素以及根据零散的数据推断出的公路网现状;根据天津市公路现代化研究的理论体系框架,运用系统论的观点和方法搭建天津市公路现代化评价指标体系的结构,选取体系中的各级指标,得到天津公路现代化评价指标体系的基本模型。运用灰色预测法、弹性系数法、回归分析法、指数平滑法等科学方法进行数据对比分析,确定天津社会经济现代化对公路现代化的需求。利用类比法、Logit模型等确定公路现代化评价指标体系中各基层指标的测度模型并得到相应年度的数值及标准值,将其代入天津公路现代化评价指标体系的基本模型,得到完整的天津市公路现代化评价指标体系。利用数据包络技术方法建立天津市公路现代化规模有效性评价模型,利用神经网络技术方法建立天津市公路现代化技术有效性评价模型,利用层次分析法建立天津市公路现代化综合评价模型。据此对天津市公路现代化的发展进程水平进行全面分析评价,为社会经济现代化和交通现代化提供参考。
The transportation modernization is the infrastructure guarantee of social economic modernization. To realize social economic modernization we must first bring about a transportation modernization. The road is an important subsystem in the large-scale transportation systems, and the research of transportation modernization must begin from that of the road modernization. To study the development of road modernization, first we must carry out scientific investigation and assessment of present road condition as well as the demand. This is the foundation of road planning and construction. Only scientific and accurate appraisal can cause the planning and construction satisfies the social economic demand and is moderately in advance.
In order to guarantee smooth modernization of mass social economic systems, it is necessary to depend on the modernization advancement of mass social systems, and carry on scientific, systematic, and complete assessment of the road development, so as to effectively grasp the advancement of road modernization, and furthermore provide powerful foundation for formulating the highway development plan.
Therefore, it is imperative that a modern and systematic, scientific and complete appraisal system be established on the basis of mass social systems; that strict and reasonable appraisal methodology be adopted.
This article first combines the system theory with the modernized theory, according to which it analyzes in different levels and from different angles the modernization theory, so as to establish the systematic, scientific and complete theory framework of road modernization research in Tianjin. The author provides massive detailed data to accurately describe the present condition of highway network in Tianjin, and analyzes whether the present development of highway network in Tianjin can satisfy the social economic need, as well as whether it is ahead of time. The article has corrected the improper conclusion about present highway network drawn from scattered data and other factors long ago. According to the theory system framework of Tianjin road modernization, by using the system theory and approaches the article builds the structure of modernized appraisal index system of Tianjin road. In selecting different levels of index, basic model of the Tianjin road modernized appraisal system is achieved. Analysis is made through using Gray Forecasting Method, Elastic Coefficient Method, Regression analysis, and Smooth Law of Index, to determine the need of road modernization in Tianjin. Through using analogy and Logit models, measurement model in different level of the assessment is determined and values and standard values in corresponding years drawn. Putting it into the basic model of Tianjin road modernization appraisal system, complete road appraisal system of road modernization in Tianjin are obtained.
By using the DEA technology, the neural network technology the AHP, appraisal model of validity of Tianjin road modernization is established. Thus a comprehensive analysis and assessment of development is fulfilled, so as to provide reference for the social economic modernization and the transportation modernization.
为了保障社会经济大系统现代化的顺利实现,有必要立足社会大系统的现代化进程,对公路现代化的发展程度进行科学、系统、完整地评价,从而有效地把握公路现代化的发展进程,为制定公路发展规划提供科学有力的依据。因此,建立一套立足于社会大系统现代化的,系统的、科学的、完整的公路现代化评价指标体系;选择严格、合理的评价方法成为公路现代化发展的迫切要求。
本文首先将系统论与现代化理论结合起来,依照系统论的观点将现代化理论从不同角度逐层分解分析,建立系统、科学、完善的天津市公路现代化研究的理论体系框架。利用大量详实的数据对天津市公路网的现状做出准确的描述,分析天津市目前公路网的发展是否能够满足社会经济的发展且有一定的超前性;纠正了长期以来,由于许多人为因素以及根据零散的数据推断出的公路网现状;根据天津市公路现代化研究的理论体系框架,运用系统论的观点和方法搭建天津市公路现代化评价指标体系的结构,选取体系中的各级指标,得到天津公路现代化评价指标体系的基本模型。运用灰色预测法、弹性系数法、回归分析法、指数平滑法等科学方法进行数据对比分析,确定天津社会经济现代化对公路现代化的需求。利用类比法、Logit模型等确定公路现代化评价指标体系中各基层指标的测度模型并得到相应年度的数值及标准值,将其代入天津公路现代化评价指标体系的基本模型,得到完整的天津市公路现代化评价指标体系。利用数据包络技术方法建立天津市公路现代化规模有效性评价模型,利用神经网络技术方法建立天津市公路现代化技术有效性评价模型,利用层次分析法建立天津市公路现代化综合评价模型。据此对天津市公路现代化的发展进程水平进行全面分析评价,为社会经济现代化和交通现代化提供参考。
The transportation modernization is the infrastructure guarantee of social economic modernization. To realize social economic modernization we must first bring about a transportation modernization. The road is an important subsystem in the large-scale transportation systems, and the research of transportation modernization must begin from that of the road modernization. To study the development of road modernization, first we must carry out scientific investigation and assessment of present road condition as well as the demand. This is the foundation of road planning and construction. Only scientific and accurate appraisal can cause the planning and construction satisfies the social economic demand and is moderately in advance.
In order to guarantee smooth modernization of mass social economic systems, it is necessary to depend on the modernization advancement of mass social systems, and carry on scientific, systematic, and complete assessment of the road development, so as to effectively grasp the advancement of road modernization, and furthermore provide powerful foundation for formulating the highway development plan.
Therefore, it is imperative that a modern and systematic, scientific and complete appraisal system be established on the basis of mass social systems; that strict and reasonable appraisal methodology be adopted.
This article first combines the system theory with the modernized theory, according to which it analyzes in different levels and from different angles the modernization theory, so as to establish the systematic, scientific and complete theory framework of road modernization research in Tianjin. The author provides massive detailed data to accurately describe the present condition of highway network in Tianjin, and analyzes whether the present development of highway network in Tianjin can satisfy the social economic need, as well as whether it is ahead of time. The article has corrected the improper conclusion about present highway network drawn from scattered data and other factors long ago. According to the theory system framework of Tianjin road modernization, by using the system theory and approaches the article builds the structure of modernized appraisal index system of Tianjin road. In selecting different levels of index, basic model of the Tianjin road modernized appraisal system is achieved. Analysis is made through using Gray Forecasting Method, Elastic Coefficient Method, Regression analysis, and Smooth Law of Index, to determine the need of road modernization in Tianjin. Through using analogy and Logit models, measurement model in different level of the assessment is determined and values and standard values in corresponding years drawn. Putting it into the basic model of Tianjin road modernization appraisal system, complete road appraisal system of road modernization in Tianjin are obtained.
By using the DEA technology, the neural network technology the AHP, appraisal model of validity of Tianjin road modernization is established. Thus a comprehensive analysis and assessment of development is fulfilled, so as to provide reference for the social economic modernization and the transportation modernization.
引文
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[18]徐南容,钟伟俊编著,科学决策理论与方法,南京:东南大学出版社,1996年,15～50
[19]魏纪林、陈传德、彭攀等,我国新世纪发展的系统观,系统辩证学学报,2001,9(4):65～69
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