经济快速发展区域碳排放机制与低碳发展策略
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摘要
福建省位处我国东南沿海,是经济快速发展区域,也是全球气候变化敏感区域之一。本文以福建省改革开放三十三年社会经济快速发展历程为背景,利用社会经济统计资料,对福建省社会经济系统碳排放量进行计算,并分析其变化特征；运用LMDI分解分析法对能源碳强度、能源结构、能源强度、人均GDP、人口规模等五个因素进行分解分析；运用STIRPAT扩展模型着重就人口与消费对碳排放的影响进行分析。在此基础上,对照2009年中国在哥本哈根气候大会上提出的减排目标,结合福建省森林和海洋碳汇估算,预测2020年福建省减排压力,并提出福建省未来低碳发展策略。研究主要结论有：
(1)1978-2010年间,福建省社会经济系统碳排放总量由1978年的449.21万t递增到2010年的8988.88万t,年均增长9.8%。其中,能源消费碳排放由383.26万t增加到5817.10万t,年均增长8.87%；水泥碳排放由65.95万t上升到3171.78万t,年均增长率为12.45%。在碳排放总量构成中,能源消费碳排放居主导地位,但比重呈下降趋势,2010年占64.71%；水泥生产碳排放比重呈上升趋势,2010年占35.29%。能源消费碳排放主要来自煤炭消费,平均比重超过75%,但总体呈下降趋势,2010年为73.67%；其次是石油消费,比重约11.94-24.92%；天然气消费碳排放比重最低,不到3%。能源消费强度持续下降,从6.67t/万元降至2.28t/万元,降幅为57.39%。
(2)从产业结构、经济增长和居民消费三个角度分析福建省能源消费碳排放变化特征,发现：从产业结构来看,第二产业碳排放的比重最大,约76.45-81.09%且第三产业次之(27.53-34.83%),第一产业最低(2.76-3.89%),第二产业碳排放的比重有继续上升趋势,且碳排放强度最大。可见,第二产业碳排放是福建省碳排放增加的主要原因之一。从经济增长与碳排放的关系看,1978-2010年间,福建省经济增长与碳排放呈二次方关系,但特征不明显,经济增长仍将是促进福建省碳排放增大的一个原因,但经济增量与能源消费碳排放增量的关系已出现回落的拐点。从居民消费碳排放情况看,2000-2010年,福建省居民消费产生的碳排放量显著增长,这与经济快速发展和城镇化快速推进带来的消费水平、消费结构变化有关,未来几十年,居民消费有可能成为驱动福建省碳排放增加的另一重要原因。
(3)通过LMDI分解分析福建省能源消费碳排放驱动机制,发现：经济规模(CY)是促进福建省碳排放量的主导因素,贡献率达184.74%,效应系数为0.6089；人口规模(CP)具有一定的推动作用,贡献率达15.26%,效应系数为0.0503；能源强度(CI)具有显著的抑制作用,贡献率-101.70%,效应系数为-0.3352；能源结构(CN)变化对碳排放也有比较明显的影响,但总体作用微弱,这与改革开放以来福建省一次能源结构变化不明显有关。因此,本文认为,在保持经济持续快速发展的情况下,促进技术进步、提高能源利用效率、降低能源强度、优化能源结构福建省未来低碳发展的重要方向。
(4)通过LMDI分解分析,能源碳强度效应(CF)在1978-1989年经历了较大波动后,1990年起在0左右小幅度波动。本文分析认为,能源碳强度反映的是单位能源的碳排放量,与能源消费结构和能源碳排放系数密切相关,改革开放以来,福建省能源消费结构总体变化不明显,能源碳排放系数相对稳定,因此,其对能源消费碳排放的解释力十分有限。
(5)通过STIRPAT扩展模型,从人口规模、人口结构、经济发展水平、技术进步四个方面对福建省总碳排放的人口相关因素进行分析,其中人口结构分别用人口城镇化率、劳动年龄人口比重、居民家庭户规模表征,发现：居民消费水平变化对碳排放的影响力比重(35.56%-38.38%)超过了模型考查的其他因子,有可能成为福建省未来碳排放的新的增长点,这对福建省考虑未来低碳发展策略具有重要的启示。人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力比重为21.68%-38.25%,超过人口规模(22.80%-28.84%)的影响力,其中,家庭户规模变化的影响力比重为33.88%,具有最显著的表现；人口年龄结构变化的影响力比重为29.83%,是人口结构中的第二大影响因素；人口城镇化对碳排放的影响力的比重达21.68%,也有重要的影响。以碳排放强度为指标的技术进步因素对福建省1978-2010年总碳排放的解释力(1.82%-9.01%)远低于模型所考察的其他变量。本文认为,CO2强度反映的是单位GDP的碳排放量,即经济增长与碳排放的关系,具有某些技术进步的意义,但远不止于此,在以高碳能源消耗为特征的经济快速发展区域,其解释力远不及能源强度表征的技术进步因素。
(6)根据2009年哥本哈根大会上中国提出的减排目标,本文设定2020年福建省减排目标为碳排放强度比2005年降低40%,并计算得出2020年碳排放量预测值与目标值之间尚有5110.06万吨差额,即使扣除森林和海洋碳汇,还有4616万吨减排压力。因此,未来福建省面临的减排形势十分严峻。
(7)综上研究,从减排和增汇两方面提出福建省未来低碳发展策略,减排策略是：规划引领,重点把握好4个关键领域的低碳发展规划；观念先行,着力构建全民低碳宣传教育体系；科技支撑,在坚持自主创新的同时,加大对外交流与合作。在增汇方面,提出应着力于发挥山海优势,提高碳汇能力。
As one of the sensitive areas for global climate change, located in China's southeast coast, Fujian Province is undergoing a period of rapid economic development since1978. In this paper, we calculated carbon emissions of the socio-economic system of Fujian Province, and analyzed the characteristics of carbon emission of Fujian Province though the method of LMDI, also we focused on the impact of demographic factors affecting the carbon emissions by STIRPAT model. We aimed to get the target that was proposed in the climate conference in Copenhagen in2009, to predicted carbon emissions of Fujian Province in2020, and to find low-carbon development strategies. The main conclusions were:
(1) From1978to2010, the total carbon emissions of socio-economic system of Fujian Province increased from4,492,100tons to89,888,800tons, and the rate of average annual increase was9.8%; The carbon emissions of energy consumption from8,171,000tons to3,832,600tons with the average annual growth rate of8.87%; The cement carbon emissions increased from659,500tons rose to1,717,800tons, and the average annual growth rate turned out to be12.45%. All of the total carbon emissions, the energy consumption and the produce dominant carbon emissions increased. The coal consumption in energy consumption cabon emissions accounted for more than75%, and the oil consumption accounted for11.94-24.92%. The proportion of carbon emissions of natural gas consumption was the lowest one; the intensity of energy consumption decreased from6.67to of2.28with an amplitude of57.39%.
(2) The characteristics of carbon emissions of Fujian Province as follows:The second industrial carbon emissions had the largest proportion (76.45-81.09%), and first industry was the lowest one (2.76-3.89%), besides, the proportion of secondary industry carbon emissions continue to increase. Carbon intensity of the second industrial carbon emissions is one of the main causes for the increase of carbon emissions in Fujian Province. From the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions ranged from1978to2010, Fujian economic growth and carbon emissions are not adapted to the EKC curve, and the economic growth will promote Fujian carbon emissions in the future. From2000to2010, the consumer of carbon emissions significant increased and may be another important reason driving the increase of carbon emissions in Fujian Province.
(3) Economies of scale (CY) is the dominant factor to promote Fujian Province carbon emissions, the contribution rate was184.74%, the effect coefficient was0.6089; the population size(CP) had a particularly positive effect, and the effect coefficient was0.0503; the energy intensity (CI) has a significant effect, the contribution rate was-101.70%, the effect coefficient tend to be-0.3352. In conclusion, the intensity of carbon dioxide, Energy Structure (CN) had smaller impacts on carbon emissions, and to improve energy efficiency is a key factor affecting the effectiveness of energy conservation in Fujian Province.
(4) Energy carbon intensity (CF) had been undergoing a large variation range form1978to1989, then keeped around zero since1990. As a indicator of unit energy carbon emission, Energy carbon intensity is closely related to both energy consumption structure and energy coefficient, Because the changes of the energy consumption structure and energy carbon emission coefficient of fujian province were not obvious, energy carbon intensity's explanatory power for energy consumption carbon emissions is very limited.
(5) We used a STIRPAT model to research the effects of population size and structure, level of economic development and technological advance on carbon emission in Fujian Province, and the population structure was characterized by population urbanization rate, age distribution of working population and resident household size. The results showed that the effects of household consumption on carbon emission exceed the single effect of population size on carbon emission and trend to be a new increment for the carbon emission in Fujian Province. The influence of demographic change on carbon emissions accounted for21.68%-38.25%, which was higher than the influence of the size of the population (22.80%-28.84%), while the population urbanization influence on carbon emissions accounted for38.25%; Besides the most influential population urbanization effect, the household size changes gained a proportion of33.88%within the whole factors and trended to be the second largest influencing factors in population structure; Beyond that, changes in the age structure of the population also accounted for29.83%. Carbon intensity indicators technological progress in Fujian Province in1978-2010explained only1.82%-9.01%variations, which was much lower than the other variables examined in the model. This paper argue that the CO2intensity (CO2/GDP) reflacts the relationship of economic growth and carbon emissions, it has certain significance of technological. But in the area of economic development rapidly, To explain the impact of technological progress on carbon emissions, the energy intensity could be a readily factor rather than the carbon intensity.
(6) According to the emission reduction targets drew on the Copenhagen Conference (2009), we assumed that the carbon intensity could be40%lower than the intensity of the year2005, and the emission gross to the year2020may still maintain a gap of about51,100,600tons. Moreover, there is a budget of about46.16million tons for emission reduction even with the carbon sink of forest and ocean exclude. The emission reduction situation trends to be grim future for Fujian Province.
(7) In summary, taking emission reduction and carbon sequestration increasing into account, the low-carbon strategies in Fujian Province should be as follows:focusing on the outline of low-carbon economy and building a good low-carbon promotion system; Moreover, it is significant to strengthen the technical innovation, to address the low-carbon lifestyle, and to strengthen the international and domestic cooperation. To increase the carbon sequestration, we also highlighted the importance of taking advantage of the forest and ocean for improving the capacity of carbon sink.
(1)1978-2010年间,福建省社会经济系统碳排放总量由1978年的449.21万t递增到2010年的8988.88万t,年均增长9.8%。其中,能源消费碳排放由383.26万t增加到5817.10万t,年均增长8.87%；水泥碳排放由65.95万t上升到3171.78万t,年均增长率为12.45%。在碳排放总量构成中,能源消费碳排放居主导地位,但比重呈下降趋势,2010年占64.71%；水泥生产碳排放比重呈上升趋势,2010年占35.29%。能源消费碳排放主要来自煤炭消费,平均比重超过75%,但总体呈下降趋势,2010年为73.67%；其次是石油消费,比重约11.94-24.92%；天然气消费碳排放比重最低,不到3%。能源消费强度持续下降,从6.67t/万元降至2.28t/万元,降幅为57.39%。
(2)从产业结构、经济增长和居民消费三个角度分析福建省能源消费碳排放变化特征,发现：从产业结构来看,第二产业碳排放的比重最大,约76.45-81.09%且第三产业次之(27.53-34.83%),第一产业最低(2.76-3.89%),第二产业碳排放的比重有继续上升趋势,且碳排放强度最大。可见,第二产业碳排放是福建省碳排放增加的主要原因之一。从经济增长与碳排放的关系看,1978-2010年间,福建省经济增长与碳排放呈二次方关系,但特征不明显,经济增长仍将是促进福建省碳排放增大的一个原因,但经济增量与能源消费碳排放增量的关系已出现回落的拐点。从居民消费碳排放情况看,2000-2010年,福建省居民消费产生的碳排放量显著增长,这与经济快速发展和城镇化快速推进带来的消费水平、消费结构变化有关,未来几十年,居民消费有可能成为驱动福建省碳排放增加的另一重要原因。
(3)通过LMDI分解分析福建省能源消费碳排放驱动机制,发现：经济规模(CY)是促进福建省碳排放量的主导因素,贡献率达184.74%,效应系数为0.6089；人口规模(CP)具有一定的推动作用,贡献率达15.26%,效应系数为0.0503；能源强度(CI)具有显著的抑制作用,贡献率-101.70%,效应系数为-0.3352；能源结构(CN)变化对碳排放也有比较明显的影响,但总体作用微弱,这与改革开放以来福建省一次能源结构变化不明显有关。因此,本文认为,在保持经济持续快速发展的情况下,促进技术进步、提高能源利用效率、降低能源强度、优化能源结构福建省未来低碳发展的重要方向。
(4)通过LMDI分解分析,能源碳强度效应(CF)在1978-1989年经历了较大波动后,1990年起在0左右小幅度波动。本文分析认为,能源碳强度反映的是单位能源的碳排放量,与能源消费结构和能源碳排放系数密切相关,改革开放以来,福建省能源消费结构总体变化不明显,能源碳排放系数相对稳定,因此,其对能源消费碳排放的解释力十分有限。
(5)通过STIRPAT扩展模型,从人口规模、人口结构、经济发展水平、技术进步四个方面对福建省总碳排放的人口相关因素进行分析,其中人口结构分别用人口城镇化率、劳动年龄人口比重、居民家庭户规模表征,发现：居民消费水平变化对碳排放的影响力比重(35.56%-38.38%)超过了模型考查的其他因子,有可能成为福建省未来碳排放的新的增长点,这对福建省考虑未来低碳发展策略具有重要的启示。人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力比重为21.68%-38.25%,超过人口规模(22.80%-28.84%)的影响力,其中,家庭户规模变化的影响力比重为33.88%,具有最显著的表现；人口年龄结构变化的影响力比重为29.83%,是人口结构中的第二大影响因素；人口城镇化对碳排放的影响力的比重达21.68%,也有重要的影响。以碳排放强度为指标的技术进步因素对福建省1978-2010年总碳排放的解释力(1.82%-9.01%)远低于模型所考察的其他变量。本文认为,CO2强度反映的是单位GDP的碳排放量,即经济增长与碳排放的关系,具有某些技术进步的意义,但远不止于此,在以高碳能源消耗为特征的经济快速发展区域,其解释力远不及能源强度表征的技术进步因素。
(6)根据2009年哥本哈根大会上中国提出的减排目标,本文设定2020年福建省减排目标为碳排放强度比2005年降低40%,并计算得出2020年碳排放量预测值与目标值之间尚有5110.06万吨差额,即使扣除森林和海洋碳汇,还有4616万吨减排压力。因此,未来福建省面临的减排形势十分严峻。
(7)综上研究,从减排和增汇两方面提出福建省未来低碳发展策略,减排策略是：规划引领,重点把握好4个关键领域的低碳发展规划；观念先行,着力构建全民低碳宣传教育体系；科技支撑,在坚持自主创新的同时,加大对外交流与合作。在增汇方面,提出应着力于发挥山海优势,提高碳汇能力。
As one of the sensitive areas for global climate change, located in China's southeast coast, Fujian Province is undergoing a period of rapid economic development since1978. In this paper, we calculated carbon emissions of the socio-economic system of Fujian Province, and analyzed the characteristics of carbon emission of Fujian Province though the method of LMDI, also we focused on the impact of demographic factors affecting the carbon emissions by STIRPAT model. We aimed to get the target that was proposed in the climate conference in Copenhagen in2009, to predicted carbon emissions of Fujian Province in2020, and to find low-carbon development strategies. The main conclusions were:
(1) From1978to2010, the total carbon emissions of socio-economic system of Fujian Province increased from4,492,100tons to89,888,800tons, and the rate of average annual increase was9.8%; The carbon emissions of energy consumption from8,171,000tons to3,832,600tons with the average annual growth rate of8.87%; The cement carbon emissions increased from659,500tons rose to1,717,800tons, and the average annual growth rate turned out to be12.45%. All of the total carbon emissions, the energy consumption and the produce dominant carbon emissions increased. The coal consumption in energy consumption cabon emissions accounted for more than75%, and the oil consumption accounted for11.94-24.92%. The proportion of carbon emissions of natural gas consumption was the lowest one; the intensity of energy consumption decreased from6.67to of2.28with an amplitude of57.39%.
(2) The characteristics of carbon emissions of Fujian Province as follows:The second industrial carbon emissions had the largest proportion (76.45-81.09%), and first industry was the lowest one (2.76-3.89%), besides, the proportion of secondary industry carbon emissions continue to increase. Carbon intensity of the second industrial carbon emissions is one of the main causes for the increase of carbon emissions in Fujian Province. From the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions ranged from1978to2010, Fujian economic growth and carbon emissions are not adapted to the EKC curve, and the economic growth will promote Fujian carbon emissions in the future. From2000to2010, the consumer of carbon emissions significant increased and may be another important reason driving the increase of carbon emissions in Fujian Province.
(3) Economies of scale (CY) is the dominant factor to promote Fujian Province carbon emissions, the contribution rate was184.74%, the effect coefficient was0.6089; the population size(CP) had a particularly positive effect, and the effect coefficient was0.0503; the energy intensity (CI) has a significant effect, the contribution rate was-101.70%, the effect coefficient tend to be-0.3352. In conclusion, the intensity of carbon dioxide, Energy Structure (CN) had smaller impacts on carbon emissions, and to improve energy efficiency is a key factor affecting the effectiveness of energy conservation in Fujian Province.
(4) Energy carbon intensity (CF) had been undergoing a large variation range form1978to1989, then keeped around zero since1990. As a indicator of unit energy carbon emission, Energy carbon intensity is closely related to both energy consumption structure and energy coefficient, Because the changes of the energy consumption structure and energy carbon emission coefficient of fujian province were not obvious, energy carbon intensity's explanatory power for energy consumption carbon emissions is very limited.
(5) We used a STIRPAT model to research the effects of population size and structure, level of economic development and technological advance on carbon emission in Fujian Province, and the population structure was characterized by population urbanization rate, age distribution of working population and resident household size. The results showed that the effects of household consumption on carbon emission exceed the single effect of population size on carbon emission and trend to be a new increment for the carbon emission in Fujian Province. The influence of demographic change on carbon emissions accounted for21.68%-38.25%, which was higher than the influence of the size of the population (22.80%-28.84%), while the population urbanization influence on carbon emissions accounted for38.25%; Besides the most influential population urbanization effect, the household size changes gained a proportion of33.88%within the whole factors and trended to be the second largest influencing factors in population structure; Beyond that, changes in the age structure of the population also accounted for29.83%. Carbon intensity indicators technological progress in Fujian Province in1978-2010explained only1.82%-9.01%variations, which was much lower than the other variables examined in the model. This paper argue that the CO2intensity (CO2/GDP) reflacts the relationship of economic growth and carbon emissions, it has certain significance of technological. But in the area of economic development rapidly, To explain the impact of technological progress on carbon emissions, the energy intensity could be a readily factor rather than the carbon intensity.
(6) According to the emission reduction targets drew on the Copenhagen Conference (2009), we assumed that the carbon intensity could be40%lower than the intensity of the year2005, and the emission gross to the year2020may still maintain a gap of about51,100,600tons. Moreover, there is a budget of about46.16million tons for emission reduction even with the carbon sink of forest and ocean exclude. The emission reduction situation trends to be grim future for Fujian Province.
(7) In summary, taking emission reduction and carbon sequestration increasing into account, the low-carbon strategies in Fujian Province should be as follows:focusing on the outline of low-carbon economy and building a good low-carbon promotion system; Moreover, it is significant to strengthen the technical innovation, to address the low-carbon lifestyle, and to strengthen the international and domestic cooperation. To increase the carbon sequestration, we also highlighted the importance of taking advantage of the forest and ocean for improving the capacity of carbon sink.
引文
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