两岸农产品贸易障碍、潜力及突破路径研究
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摘要
中国大陆改革开放30多年来,海峡两岸经贸关系虽然也曾经受政治局势冲击,但总体而言经贸往来日益频繁、经贸合作日益密切。尤其是近年来,双方在“九二共识”的基础上恢复了制度化协商,基本实现了两岸双向直接“三通”,《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》的签订,更为两岸经贸合作注入新的动力。作为两岸经济合作重要纽带的贸易,显然起到越来越重要的作用。处理好两岸农产品贸易问题不但是重要的经济问题,更是重要的政治问题。学界对此也展开了卓有成效的研究。然而,对于两岸农产品贸易增长波动主要影响因素是什么?两岸农产品贸易潜力如何?受何因素制约?应当如何突破两岸农产品贸易障碍挖掘两岸农产品贸易潜力?这些重要的问题,都亟待深入研究,并给出明确的答案。
本文通过文献的整理和逻辑推理和计量分析,揭示影响两岸农产品贸易的主要制约因素,并测算了两岸农产品贸易的潜力,结果表明两岸农产品贸易大有可为；而如何构建产业链整合机制、突破贸易障碍是促进两岸农产品贸易潜力得以发挥和进一步挖掘的关键。本文主要研究三个核心问题：(1)两岸农产品贸易增长波动主要影响因素是什么?(2)两岸农产品贸易潜力如何?受何因素制约?(3)应当如何选择、设计突破两岸农产品贸易障碍提升贸易水平的路径?
具体而言,本研究主要得出如下三个方面的结论：
(1)不同时期影响两岸农产品贸易增长的因素有所差异。从大陆对台湾农产品出口增长动因来看,2008年金融危机之前,贸易的增长主要得益于出口竞争力效应的贡献；金融危机后,大陆对台湾农产品出口增长主要依赖进口需求效应,特别是其中的需求规模效应；出口竞争力效应和结构交叉效应贡献度均为负值。提高大陆农产品的出口竞争力和改善出口产品结构是推动大陆对台湾农产品出口的关键。从台湾对大陆农产品出口增长的动因来看,入世之前,结构交叉效应为推动台湾对大陆农产品出口的主要因素。入世之后,大陆的农产品进口需求得到释放；结构交叉效应的贡献份额有所下降,但仍然高于20%,表明台湾农产品依然能够适应大陆农产品进口需求的调整；出口竞争力效应的贡献在三个时期中有小幅下降,但均在30%左右。
(2)大陆对台湾农产品出口既取决于台湾的需求,也受制于大陆的农产品供给能力；台湾对大陆农产品出口的制约因素主要是大陆的需求和本身自我调节能力。进一步研究表明,台湾农产品出口的主要取决于进口地区的需求因素,包括进口地区农业增加值、人均国民收入水平和两地空间距离；而台湾农产品进口的主要取决于进口来源地区的农产品供给能力、两地空间距离和消费需求结构差异。从地区贸易政策来看,大陆对台农产进口的优惠政策,而台湾对来自大陆的农产品进口可能人为设置障碍；台湾在农产品进出口贸易上存在亲美倾向；台湾与APEC成员的贸易量显著高于非APEC成员。总体而言,两岸农产品贸易潜力有待开发,特别是大陆对台农产品出口的潜力,2010年相当于实际贸易额的1.75倍。
(3)在两岸经贸合作机制尚未成熟并面临种种政治、制度、社会文化与价值观念冲突条件下,通过中观产业链利益的整合,理顺两岸农产品贸易利益分配机制是突破两岸农产品贸易路径选择,而建立两岸业界共同投资、共同受益、共担风险的两岸农产品共同营运中心是可行的方案。从功能定位来看,两岸农产品共同营运中心应当同时具备农产品展示和交易中心、农产品精深加工中心、物流配套服务中心、农产品科技服务中心和金融服务中心五大功能；从运行的机制来看,企业化经营、市场化运作、风险共担、利益共享是必然选择；从营运中心构建条件来看,由于平潭综合实验区具备良好地理区位、基础设施、政策配套和两岸农业及经贸合作经验的优势,是两岸农产品共同营运中心的首选。两岸农产品共同营运中心的顺利运行,离不开政府的扶持,尚需要政府在两岸农产品贸易问题进行协商、营运中心的规划审批、税收优惠、资金支持等政策扶持等方面提供大力支持。
上述三个结论中,第一个结论主要解决了两岸农产品贸易增长中竞争力效应、结构效应和需求效应的贡献问题,初步回答了影响和制约两岸农产品贸易的主要因素：第二个结论则进一步深入挖掘了两岸农产品贸易中政策、空间距离等制约因素的影响,并得出两岸农产品贸易潜力的基本判断。第三个结论是在第一个和第二个结论基础上,从产业链价值实现的视角提出突破两岸农产品贸易障碍及提高贸易潜力的路径选择,并以平潭综合实验区为例，提出了两岸农产品营运中心的可行方案。
总体而言,本文探寻了两岸农产品贸易制约因素、潜力和突破路径。本文在如下方面可能对已有研究产生贡献：首先,本文对影响、制约两岸农产品贸易因素做了较为深入的挖掘和严格的计量验证；其次,本文从计量上验证了两岸农产品贸易的潜力没有得到发挥,以及台湾当局的农产品贸易政策是阻碍两岸农产品贸易的重要因素的事实；最后,本文通过产业链利益实现的视角分析了突破两岸农产品贸易障碍提升贸易水平的路径选择,并率先提出了两岸(平潭)农产品共同营运中心的构想,为两岸农产品贸易乃至农业合作的发展提出了新的路径和蓝图。
The overall economic and trade exchanges and cooperation have become increasingly frequent and close of the Cross-strait in spite of the economic and trading relations were impacted by the political situation since30years after the Mainland's reforming and opening. Especially in recent years, the two sides resumed institutionalized consultations on the basis of the "1992Consensus", and basically realized the two-way "Three Links" of the Cross-strait. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) injected more new momentum to the Cross-strait economic and trading cooperation. Obviously the trading plays an increasingly important role as a link of the Cross-strait economic cooperation. It is not only an economic issue to deal with the problems of agricultural trading of the Cross-strait but also a political issue. Scholars have also launched fruitful researches about this. However, what are the main factors for the volatility of economic growth of the Cross-strait agricultural trade? How is the potential for the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait? What are the factors restricting? How should the two sides break through barriers and explore potentials to the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait? The existing literatures do not give a clear answer to these important issues.
This article reveals the major constraints affecting the Cross-strait agricultural trading and estimates the potential through the collecting and reorganizing of literatures and logical reasoning as well as measurement analysis, the results show that the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait is promising. And how to build the integration mechanisms of the industrial chain and break through the barriers to trade are the keys to further take advantage of and explore the potential. This article mainly studies the three core issues:(1) what are the main factors for the volatility of economic growth of the Cross-strait agricultural trade?(2) How is the potential for the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait? What are the factors restricting?(3) How to select and break through the barriers of agricultural trading of the Cross-strait so as to enhance the trading level?
Specifically, this study mainly comes to the following three conclusions:
(1) The factors affecting the growth of the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait are different in different periods. From the view of the Mainland's motive to increase the export of agricultural products to Taiwan, the trade growth was mainly due to the contribution of export competitiveness before the financial crisis of2008; after the financial crisis, the export growth of the Mainland's agricultural products to Taiwan mainly relied on the effect of import demand, especially the demand for economies of scale; the effects of export competitiveness and the contribution of structural cross effects are negative. To increase the export competitiveness of the Mainland agricultural products and improve the structure of exported products is the key to promote the Mainland export of agricultural products to Taiwan. From the view of Taiwan's motive to increase the export of agricultural products to the Mainland, the structural cross effects was the main factor to promote Taiwan's exports of agricultural products to the Mainland before the accession to the WTO. After accession to the WTO, the Mainland's demands for imports of agricultural products was released and the contribution to the effects of structural cross share declined, but was still higher than20%, which indicated that Taiwan's agricultural products were still able to adapt to the needs of the adjustments of the Mainland's imports of agricultural products; the contribution of export competitiveness effect declined slightly in three period, but at about30%respectively.
(2) The Mainland's export of agricultural products to Taiwan not only depends on the needs of Taiwan, but also subjects to the Mainland's supply capacity. The main constraints of Taiwan's export to the Mainland are the Mainland's demands and self-regulating capacity. Further studies showed that Taiwan's export of agricultural products mainly depends on the demands of importing regions including the agricultural added value of importing regions, the income level of per capita and the distance between importing and exporting regions. Taiwan's import of agricultural products mainly depends on the supply capacity of the source, the distance between importing and exporting regions and consumption demand. The Mainland provides preferential policies to import products from Taiwan, while Taiwan may set up barriers to the importing of agricultural products from the Mainland. Taiwan prefers pro-American policy on the trading of agricultural products; the trade volume between Taiwan and APEC members is significantly higher than that and non-APEC members. Overall, the potential of agricultural trading of the Cross-strait can be developed, especially the potential of the Mainland's exports to Taiwan which could be equivalent to1.75times of the actual trade volume in2010.
(3) The economic and trade cooperation mechanism of the Cross-strait is not yet mature and facing all kinds of political, institutional and the conflict conditions of social and cultural values. The choice to break through the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait is to integrate the industry chain and rationalize the interests'allocation mechanism, while the establishment of the operating center with jointly investment, benefit and risks-share of the Cross-strait is a viable solution. The joint operating center of agricultural products of the Cross-strait should be equipped with five sections such as the agricultural exhibition and trade section, the financial services section, agricultural science and technology service section, logistics services section and agricultural deep processing section which are all run with a good environment such as enterprise business, market-oriented operation and risk and profit sharing. The comprehensive experimental zone in Pingtan has the advantage of good location, infrastructure, matching policy and agricultural trading and economic cooperation experience of the Cross-strait, so it is the preferred choice of the joint operating center of the Cross-strait. The smooth running of the joint operating center of the Cross-strait needs the strong support from the government, for example, government's consultations of agricultural trade issues, the planning approval, tax and capital policy etc.
The first conclusion is mainly to indicate the contribution level of the competitive effect, structural effect and demand effect in the growth of agricultural trade of the Cross-strait, which is a preliminary answer to the impact and restrict of the Cross-strait agricultural trade. The second conclusion is to further analyze the constraints such as trade policy and distance and came to the judgments of agricultural trading potential of the Cross-strait. Based on the first and second conclusion, the third one is to come up with the solution to break through barriers and increase potential from the perspective of the value of industrial chain from the perspective of the value chain and take the example of Pingtan comprehensive experimental zone to propose the establishment of the operating center.
Overall, this paper studies the constraints, potential and breakthrough of the agricultural trade of the Cross-strait, which might contribute to the existing researches in the following areas:firstly, the rigorous measurement verification of the constraints which affect the agricultural trade of the Cross-strait; secondly, the measurement verification verifies the fact that the potential of Cross-strait agricultural trade did not get play and the agricultural trade policies of the Taiwan authorities is an important factor to hinder the Cross-strait agricultural trade; finally, this article analyzes the path to break through the barriers and enhance the level of trade from the perspective of the interests of the industry chain, and came up with the thought of the establishment of the operating center which is a new path and a blueprint for the development of the agricultural trading and even cooperation of the Cross-strait.
本文通过文献的整理和逻辑推理和计量分析,揭示影响两岸农产品贸易的主要制约因素,并测算了两岸农产品贸易的潜力,结果表明两岸农产品贸易大有可为；而如何构建产业链整合机制、突破贸易障碍是促进两岸农产品贸易潜力得以发挥和进一步挖掘的关键。本文主要研究三个核心问题：(1)两岸农产品贸易增长波动主要影响因素是什么?(2)两岸农产品贸易潜力如何?受何因素制约?(3)应当如何选择、设计突破两岸农产品贸易障碍提升贸易水平的路径?
具体而言,本研究主要得出如下三个方面的结论：
(1)不同时期影响两岸农产品贸易增长的因素有所差异。从大陆对台湾农产品出口增长动因来看,2008年金融危机之前,贸易的增长主要得益于出口竞争力效应的贡献；金融危机后,大陆对台湾农产品出口增长主要依赖进口需求效应,特别是其中的需求规模效应；出口竞争力效应和结构交叉效应贡献度均为负值。提高大陆农产品的出口竞争力和改善出口产品结构是推动大陆对台湾农产品出口的关键。从台湾对大陆农产品出口增长的动因来看,入世之前,结构交叉效应为推动台湾对大陆农产品出口的主要因素。入世之后,大陆的农产品进口需求得到释放；结构交叉效应的贡献份额有所下降,但仍然高于20%,表明台湾农产品依然能够适应大陆农产品进口需求的调整；出口竞争力效应的贡献在三个时期中有小幅下降,但均在30%左右。
(2)大陆对台湾农产品出口既取决于台湾的需求,也受制于大陆的农产品供给能力；台湾对大陆农产品出口的制约因素主要是大陆的需求和本身自我调节能力。进一步研究表明,台湾农产品出口的主要取决于进口地区的需求因素,包括进口地区农业增加值、人均国民收入水平和两地空间距离；而台湾农产品进口的主要取决于进口来源地区的农产品供给能力、两地空间距离和消费需求结构差异。从地区贸易政策来看,大陆对台农产进口的优惠政策,而台湾对来自大陆的农产品进口可能人为设置障碍；台湾在农产品进出口贸易上存在亲美倾向；台湾与APEC成员的贸易量显著高于非APEC成员。总体而言,两岸农产品贸易潜力有待开发,特别是大陆对台农产品出口的潜力,2010年相当于实际贸易额的1.75倍。
(3)在两岸经贸合作机制尚未成熟并面临种种政治、制度、社会文化与价值观念冲突条件下,通过中观产业链利益的整合,理顺两岸农产品贸易利益分配机制是突破两岸农产品贸易路径选择,而建立两岸业界共同投资、共同受益、共担风险的两岸农产品共同营运中心是可行的方案。从功能定位来看,两岸农产品共同营运中心应当同时具备农产品展示和交易中心、农产品精深加工中心、物流配套服务中心、农产品科技服务中心和金融服务中心五大功能；从运行的机制来看,企业化经营、市场化运作、风险共担、利益共享是必然选择；从营运中心构建条件来看,由于平潭综合实验区具备良好地理区位、基础设施、政策配套和两岸农业及经贸合作经验的优势,是两岸农产品共同营运中心的首选。两岸农产品共同营运中心的顺利运行,离不开政府的扶持,尚需要政府在两岸农产品贸易问题进行协商、营运中心的规划审批、税收优惠、资金支持等政策扶持等方面提供大力支持。
上述三个结论中,第一个结论主要解决了两岸农产品贸易增长中竞争力效应、结构效应和需求效应的贡献问题,初步回答了影响和制约两岸农产品贸易的主要因素：第二个结论则进一步深入挖掘了两岸农产品贸易中政策、空间距离等制约因素的影响,并得出两岸农产品贸易潜力的基本判断。第三个结论是在第一个和第二个结论基础上,从产业链价值实现的视角提出突破两岸农产品贸易障碍及提高贸易潜力的路径选择,并以平潭综合实验区为例，提出了两岸农产品营运中心的可行方案。
总体而言,本文探寻了两岸农产品贸易制约因素、潜力和突破路径。本文在如下方面可能对已有研究产生贡献：首先,本文对影响、制约两岸农产品贸易因素做了较为深入的挖掘和严格的计量验证；其次,本文从计量上验证了两岸农产品贸易的潜力没有得到发挥,以及台湾当局的农产品贸易政策是阻碍两岸农产品贸易的重要因素的事实；最后,本文通过产业链利益实现的视角分析了突破两岸农产品贸易障碍提升贸易水平的路径选择,并率先提出了两岸(平潭)农产品共同营运中心的构想,为两岸农产品贸易乃至农业合作的发展提出了新的路径和蓝图。
The overall economic and trade exchanges and cooperation have become increasingly frequent and close of the Cross-strait in spite of the economic and trading relations were impacted by the political situation since30years after the Mainland's reforming and opening. Especially in recent years, the two sides resumed institutionalized consultations on the basis of the "1992Consensus", and basically realized the two-way "Three Links" of the Cross-strait. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) injected more new momentum to the Cross-strait economic and trading cooperation. Obviously the trading plays an increasingly important role as a link of the Cross-strait economic cooperation. It is not only an economic issue to deal with the problems of agricultural trading of the Cross-strait but also a political issue. Scholars have also launched fruitful researches about this. However, what are the main factors for the volatility of economic growth of the Cross-strait agricultural trade? How is the potential for the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait? What are the factors restricting? How should the two sides break through barriers and explore potentials to the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait? The existing literatures do not give a clear answer to these important issues.
This article reveals the major constraints affecting the Cross-strait agricultural trading and estimates the potential through the collecting and reorganizing of literatures and logical reasoning as well as measurement analysis, the results show that the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait is promising. And how to build the integration mechanisms of the industrial chain and break through the barriers to trade are the keys to further take advantage of and explore the potential. This article mainly studies the three core issues:(1) what are the main factors for the volatility of economic growth of the Cross-strait agricultural trade?(2) How is the potential for the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait? What are the factors restricting?(3) How to select and break through the barriers of agricultural trading of the Cross-strait so as to enhance the trading level?
Specifically, this study mainly comes to the following three conclusions:
(1) The factors affecting the growth of the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait are different in different periods. From the view of the Mainland's motive to increase the export of agricultural products to Taiwan, the trade growth was mainly due to the contribution of export competitiveness before the financial crisis of2008; after the financial crisis, the export growth of the Mainland's agricultural products to Taiwan mainly relied on the effect of import demand, especially the demand for economies of scale; the effects of export competitiveness and the contribution of structural cross effects are negative. To increase the export competitiveness of the Mainland agricultural products and improve the structure of exported products is the key to promote the Mainland export of agricultural products to Taiwan. From the view of Taiwan's motive to increase the export of agricultural products to the Mainland, the structural cross effects was the main factor to promote Taiwan's exports of agricultural products to the Mainland before the accession to the WTO. After accession to the WTO, the Mainland's demands for imports of agricultural products was released and the contribution to the effects of structural cross share declined, but was still higher than20%, which indicated that Taiwan's agricultural products were still able to adapt to the needs of the adjustments of the Mainland's imports of agricultural products; the contribution of export competitiveness effect declined slightly in three period, but at about30%respectively.
(2) The Mainland's export of agricultural products to Taiwan not only depends on the needs of Taiwan, but also subjects to the Mainland's supply capacity. The main constraints of Taiwan's export to the Mainland are the Mainland's demands and self-regulating capacity. Further studies showed that Taiwan's export of agricultural products mainly depends on the demands of importing regions including the agricultural added value of importing regions, the income level of per capita and the distance between importing and exporting regions. Taiwan's import of agricultural products mainly depends on the supply capacity of the source, the distance between importing and exporting regions and consumption demand. The Mainland provides preferential policies to import products from Taiwan, while Taiwan may set up barriers to the importing of agricultural products from the Mainland. Taiwan prefers pro-American policy on the trading of agricultural products; the trade volume between Taiwan and APEC members is significantly higher than that and non-APEC members. Overall, the potential of agricultural trading of the Cross-strait can be developed, especially the potential of the Mainland's exports to Taiwan which could be equivalent to1.75times of the actual trade volume in2010.
(3) The economic and trade cooperation mechanism of the Cross-strait is not yet mature and facing all kinds of political, institutional and the conflict conditions of social and cultural values. The choice to break through the agricultural trading of the Cross-strait is to integrate the industry chain and rationalize the interests'allocation mechanism, while the establishment of the operating center with jointly investment, benefit and risks-share of the Cross-strait is a viable solution. The joint operating center of agricultural products of the Cross-strait should be equipped with five sections such as the agricultural exhibition and trade section, the financial services section, agricultural science and technology service section, logistics services section and agricultural deep processing section which are all run with a good environment such as enterprise business, market-oriented operation and risk and profit sharing. The comprehensive experimental zone in Pingtan has the advantage of good location, infrastructure, matching policy and agricultural trading and economic cooperation experience of the Cross-strait, so it is the preferred choice of the joint operating center of the Cross-strait. The smooth running of the joint operating center of the Cross-strait needs the strong support from the government, for example, government's consultations of agricultural trade issues, the planning approval, tax and capital policy etc.
The first conclusion is mainly to indicate the contribution level of the competitive effect, structural effect and demand effect in the growth of agricultural trade of the Cross-strait, which is a preliminary answer to the impact and restrict of the Cross-strait agricultural trade. The second conclusion is to further analyze the constraints such as trade policy and distance and came to the judgments of agricultural trading potential of the Cross-strait. Based on the first and second conclusion, the third one is to come up with the solution to break through barriers and increase potential from the perspective of the value of industrial chain from the perspective of the value chain and take the example of Pingtan comprehensive experimental zone to propose the establishment of the operating center.
Overall, this paper studies the constraints, potential and breakthrough of the agricultural trade of the Cross-strait, which might contribute to the existing researches in the following areas:firstly, the rigorous measurement verification of the constraints which affect the agricultural trade of the Cross-strait; secondly, the measurement verification verifies the fact that the potential of Cross-strait agricultural trade did not get play and the agricultural trade policies of the Taiwan authorities is an important factor to hinder the Cross-strait agricultural trade; finally, this article analyzes the path to break through the barriers and enhance the level of trade from the perspective of the interests of the industry chain, and came up with the thought of the establishment of the operating center which is a new path and a blueprint for the development of the agricultural trading and even cooperation of the Cross-strait.
引文
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2曾寅初,陈忠毅.海峡两岸农产品贸易与直接投资的关系分析[J].管理世界.2004(1)
1林享能.两岸农产品及食品安全合作之检讨与建议,第七届两岸经贸文化论坛会议论文,成都,2011年5月
1欧盟于2007年开始同意受理台湾地区向欧盟植物品种事务局申请植物品种权,并应用于27个会员国.中华民国经济年鉴(2008年,台北),223。
1 《中华民国经济年鉴》出版编辑委员会.中华民国经济年鉴.台北,经济日报编印,2008年4月：254
1见黄枝连著《指点天下探索二十一世纪的文选》,香港汇讯出版有限公司出版,2000年6月初版,第71-72页。
1事实上,类似的探讨始于20世纪90年代初,1991年时任台湾“经济部部长”的萧万长就曾提出两岸三地组成“中国共同市场”的建议。详见：唐永红(2010),第13页和曹小衡(2001),第243-244页。
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2曾寅初,陈忠毅.海峡两岸农产品贸易与直接投资的关系分析[J].管理世界.2004(1)
1林享能.两岸农产品及食品安全合作之检讨与建议,第七届两岸经贸文化论坛会议论文,成都,2011年5月
1欧盟于2007年开始同意受理台湾地区向欧盟植物品种事务局申请植物品种权,并应用于27个会员国.中华民国经济年鉴(2008年,台北),223。
1 《中华民国经济年鉴》出版编辑委员会.中华民国经济年鉴.台北,经济日报编印,2008年4月：254
1见黄枝连著《指点天下探索二十一世纪的文选》,香港汇讯出版有限公司出版,2000年6月初版,第71-72页。
1事实上,类似的探讨始于20世纪90年代初,1991年时任台湾“经济部部长”的萧万长就曾提出两岸三地组成“中国共同市场”的建议。详见：唐永红(2010),第13页和曹小衡(2001),第243-244页。
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