我国对外直接投资对出口规模和出口商品结构影响的研究
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摘要
国际金融危机爆发后,全球经济失衡现象进一步突出,我国出口贸易面临着严峻的发展困境。与此同时,“走出去”战略提出以后,我国作为对外直接投资母国的地位迅速提升。对外直接投资是在出口贸易遭遇日趋严重的贸易摩擦、国内市场趋于饱和、国内就业压力较大的背景下逐步发展起来的,那么在这个时期研究二者的关系具有重大的理论与现实意义。本文在对国内外有关对外直接投资与国际贸易关系的相关研究进行系统梳理时发现,对外直接投资与出口贸易的研究往往只注重贸易规模方面,且大多数研究是基于宏观层面进行的,都没有提供一致的、简单明了的实证检验方法,理论假设及结论存在很大的差异,实证研究大多是基于发达国家数据进行的。出口贸易不仅仅包括出口规模还应该包括出口商品结构,而关于对外直接投资与出口商品结构关系的研究无论是理论方面还是实证方面都非常少。因此本文为了全面研究对外直接投资与出口贸易的关系,从出口规模和商品结构两个方面展开,一方面从微观层面研究对外直接投资与出口规模的关系,另一方面探讨对外直接投资对出口商品结构影响的理论机制,并进一步运用我国数据进行实证分析。
首先,本文系统分析了我国对外直接投资、出口贸易、出口商品结构的发展现状,揭示出目前对外直接投资存在的问题以及国际金融危机后我国对外贸易面临的发展困境,阐述了对外直接投资与出口规模、出口商品结构的变化关系。接下来,一方面从微观层面研究对外直接投资与出口规模的关系,基于东道国市场的不确定性建立对外直接投资与出口的动态均衡模型,探索对外直接投资与出口的行为选择路径。在原来的替代效应基础上提出市场需求效应的概念,得出新的命题假设及其证明,并结合我国与世界其他国家的对外直接投资与出口的实际进行实证检验。另一方面从宏观层面研究对外直接投资与出口商品结构的关系,探讨对外直接投资对出口商品结构影响的理论机制,然后运用我国制造业的数据,在构建产业结构高度化与合理化指标的基础上,验证对外直接投资与产业结构优化升级的关系,同时运用我国宏观层面的数据验证产业结构与出口商品结构的相关性,试图证明对外直接投资对出口商品结构优化存在间接影响。最后,采用计量分析方法,基于我国31个省市自治区2002-2007年的出口商品结构数据,运用新的方法构建并测算出口商品结构优化指标,在此基础上检验对外直接投资对出口商品结构的影响,并分析不同地区的差异性。
通过以上研究我们发现：(1)对外直接投资的固定成本以及东道国市场规模是影响出口贸易和对外直接投资两种路径选择的主要因素。由于沉淀成本的存在,母国一般是等到东道国市场需求容量足够大时才会进入市场,所以对外直接投资往往发生在出口行为之后。(2)对外直接投资初期,母国企业会用现期的对外直接投资替代上一期的出口。但对外直接投资对出口的替代效应只有在母国进入东道国的前期阶段才比较明显,当对外直接投资与出口贸易均成熟后,二者之间往往由替代关系变为互补关系。(3)制造业对外直接投资对其产业结构存在优化效应,同时宏观数据证明产业结构与出口商品结构高度相关,其中第三产业发展的出口商品结构优化效应比第二产业的更加明显。从而说明对外直接投资对出口商品结构具有间接影响。但是制造业出口并没有改善我国制造业产业结构反而使其恶化,这意味着制造业不能为了增加外需而盲目扩大出口,而要注重其出口商品结构的优化调整,在当前制造业出口压力不断增大的形势下更应反思制造业出口贸易存在的内在问题,从而促进出口转型与产业结构优化。(4)对外直接投资对出口商品结构高度化产生一定的促进作用,而且对外直接投资的出口商品结构优化效应比外商直接投资要明显,除此之外,一般贸易出口和人力资本也是影响我国出口商品结构优化的主要因素。
本文的主要创新之处在于：第一,从微观层面构建基于市场不确定性的对外直接投资与出口规模的动态均衡模型,研究对外直接投资与出口规模之间的动态变化关系。第二,探讨对外直接投资对出口商品结构影响的理论机制。实证检验对外直接投资、产业结构与出口商品结构三者之间的关系,从而验证外直接投资对出口商品结构的间接影响效应。第三,以我国制造业为例,首次从产业层面实证研究对外直接投资与产业结构优化的关系,并且分别建立测度制造业产业结构合理化与高度化的指标体系,全面衡量制造业产业结构优化程度,从而保证计量分析结论的可靠性。第四,采用新的方法测算出口商品结构优化指标,基于我国31个省市自治区的面板数据,检验对外直接投资对出口商品结构的影响,分析不同地区的差异性,并检验影响出口商品结构优化的其他因素。
目前对外直接投资与出口规模的微观层面研究还不成体系,对外直接投资与出口商品结构关系的研究还比较匮乏且研究方法有待进一步探索。本文进行尝试性分析,以期推动我国对外直接投资与出口贸易的研究进展,当然,由于企业层面对外直接投资数据的缺乏,使得本文难以从企业层面展开实证分析,成为本研究的一个缺憾。
After the outbreak of international financial crisis, global economic imbalances become worse and China's export trade is facing severe dilemma. At the same time, China is playing an important role in foreign direct investment after "going out" strategy put out. China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) is gradually developing as the export trade suffering serious trade frictions, the domestic market being saturated and the employment pressure increasing. Then the research on relationship between OFDI and export during this period has great theoretical and practical significance. The dissertation finds that most research is based on macro-levels and moreover it hasn't provided consistent, simple or clear empirical test methods. There is much difference among theoretical assumptions and conclusions and most of the empirical research is based on the developed countries'data. Both theoretical and empirical research about relationship of OFDI and export commodity structure is very little. Therefore, this dissertation carrises on two studies:On the one hand, it trys to study the relationship between OFDI and export scale on the micro-level.On the other hand, it explores the theory mechanism of impact of OFDI on export commodity structure and further develops empirical analysis using China's data.
Firstly, the dissertation systematically summarizes the status quo of China's OFDI, export trade and export commodity structure, revealing the current problems of OFDI and China's foreign trade difficulties after the financial crisis. It describes the relationship among OFDI、export scale and export commodity structure, in order to lay reality basis for in-depth study behind. Nextly, it establishes dynamic equilibrium model based on the uncertainty of the host country's market to analyze the choosing path of OFDI and export. The concept of market demand effects is proposed on the original substitution effect, revealing a new hypothesis and its proof. The other hand, it studies the relationship of OFDI and export commodity structure on the macro-level, exploring the theoretical mechanism of impact. Then it verifies the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure using data from China's manufacturing industry, after building the industrial structure's advancement and rationalization indicators. Thus it uses China's macro-level data to validate the relationship between industrial structure and export structure, trying to prove that OFDI has indirect effects on export commodity structure optimization. Finally, it tests the direct impact of OFDI on the export commodity structure and analyzes the differences in regions, using quantitative analysis method based on 31 provinces and autonomous regions of China's exports for 2002-2007 data.
Through the above study it found that:(1) The fixed costs of OFDI and the host country's market size are major factors affecting the choosing paths of OFDI and export. Due to the existence of sunk costs, the home country generally does OFDI until the capacity of the host country's market demand becomes large enough. So OFDI tends to occur after the export behavior. (2) In the OFDI's initial stage, the current OFDI often replaces the exports. However, the substitution effect only happens in the early stage of OFDI. When the OFDI and export trade are mature, the relationship between them often changes to complementary relationship from substitution relationship. (3) There exists an industrial structure optimization effect of manufacture industry's OFDI, while the macro data proves that it's highly relevant to industrial structure and export commodity structure.Furthermore the third industry's export optimization effect is more obvious than the second industry's. It shows that OFDI has indirect effects on export commodity structure. However, manufacture industry's exports did not improve the industrial structure, actually making it worse, which means that it can not be blind in expanding exports in order to increase external demand, but to pay attention to optimal adjustment of the export commodity structure. In the current, we should contribute to the export transformation and industrial structure optimization. (4) OFDI has a certain role in promoting the export commodity structure's advancement, having more obvious than FDI. General trade exports and human capital are also main factors impacting China's export commodity structure.
The principal innovations of this dissertation are as follows:Firstly, it establishes dynamic equilibrium model based on the uncertainty of the host country's market to study the dynamic changes of OFDI and exports scale. Secondly, it explores the mechanism of impact of OFDI on the export commodity structure. It tests the relationship among OFDI industrial structure and export commodity structure empirically, verifying OFDI's indirect impact on the export commodity structure. Thirdly, it, for the first time, empirically studies the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure on the industry level, making the analysis more focused and guiding significant. And the index system were established to rationalize the industrial structure and advancement, a comprehensive measurement of manufacturing industrial structure optimization, in order to ensure the reliability of the conclusions of quantitative analysis. Fourthly, it uses new approach to calculate structural optimization of export commodities based on China's 31 provinces and autonomous regions'exports data from 2002 to 2007 to test the export commodity structure of OFDI and analyze the differences in different regions. And further it tests other factors affecting export commodity structure optimization.
The present research at the micro level is not enough to go into a system. The study of the relationship between OFDI and export is still relatively scarce and the research methods need to be explored further. This dissertation attempts to analysis with a view to promoting the research on China's OFDI and export trade. Of course, due to the lack of enterprise level's data, it's difficult to take empirical analysis on enterprise level, which becomes a shortcoming of this study.
首先,本文系统分析了我国对外直接投资、出口贸易、出口商品结构的发展现状,揭示出目前对外直接投资存在的问题以及国际金融危机后我国对外贸易面临的发展困境,阐述了对外直接投资与出口规模、出口商品结构的变化关系。接下来,一方面从微观层面研究对外直接投资与出口规模的关系,基于东道国市场的不确定性建立对外直接投资与出口的动态均衡模型,探索对外直接投资与出口的行为选择路径。在原来的替代效应基础上提出市场需求效应的概念,得出新的命题假设及其证明,并结合我国与世界其他国家的对外直接投资与出口的实际进行实证检验。另一方面从宏观层面研究对外直接投资与出口商品结构的关系,探讨对外直接投资对出口商品结构影响的理论机制,然后运用我国制造业的数据,在构建产业结构高度化与合理化指标的基础上,验证对外直接投资与产业结构优化升级的关系,同时运用我国宏观层面的数据验证产业结构与出口商品结构的相关性,试图证明对外直接投资对出口商品结构优化存在间接影响。最后,采用计量分析方法,基于我国31个省市自治区2002-2007年的出口商品结构数据,运用新的方法构建并测算出口商品结构优化指标,在此基础上检验对外直接投资对出口商品结构的影响,并分析不同地区的差异性。
通过以上研究我们发现：(1)对外直接投资的固定成本以及东道国市场规模是影响出口贸易和对外直接投资两种路径选择的主要因素。由于沉淀成本的存在,母国一般是等到东道国市场需求容量足够大时才会进入市场,所以对外直接投资往往发生在出口行为之后。(2)对外直接投资初期,母国企业会用现期的对外直接投资替代上一期的出口。但对外直接投资对出口的替代效应只有在母国进入东道国的前期阶段才比较明显,当对外直接投资与出口贸易均成熟后,二者之间往往由替代关系变为互补关系。(3)制造业对外直接投资对其产业结构存在优化效应,同时宏观数据证明产业结构与出口商品结构高度相关,其中第三产业发展的出口商品结构优化效应比第二产业的更加明显。从而说明对外直接投资对出口商品结构具有间接影响。但是制造业出口并没有改善我国制造业产业结构反而使其恶化,这意味着制造业不能为了增加外需而盲目扩大出口,而要注重其出口商品结构的优化调整,在当前制造业出口压力不断增大的形势下更应反思制造业出口贸易存在的内在问题,从而促进出口转型与产业结构优化。(4)对外直接投资对出口商品结构高度化产生一定的促进作用,而且对外直接投资的出口商品结构优化效应比外商直接投资要明显,除此之外,一般贸易出口和人力资本也是影响我国出口商品结构优化的主要因素。
本文的主要创新之处在于：第一,从微观层面构建基于市场不确定性的对外直接投资与出口规模的动态均衡模型,研究对外直接投资与出口规模之间的动态变化关系。第二,探讨对外直接投资对出口商品结构影响的理论机制。实证检验对外直接投资、产业结构与出口商品结构三者之间的关系,从而验证外直接投资对出口商品结构的间接影响效应。第三,以我国制造业为例,首次从产业层面实证研究对外直接投资与产业结构优化的关系,并且分别建立测度制造业产业结构合理化与高度化的指标体系,全面衡量制造业产业结构优化程度,从而保证计量分析结论的可靠性。第四,采用新的方法测算出口商品结构优化指标,基于我国31个省市自治区的面板数据,检验对外直接投资对出口商品结构的影响,分析不同地区的差异性,并检验影响出口商品结构优化的其他因素。
目前对外直接投资与出口规模的微观层面研究还不成体系,对外直接投资与出口商品结构关系的研究还比较匮乏且研究方法有待进一步探索。本文进行尝试性分析,以期推动我国对外直接投资与出口贸易的研究进展,当然,由于企业层面对外直接投资数据的缺乏,使得本文难以从企业层面展开实证分析,成为本研究的一个缺憾。
After the outbreak of international financial crisis, global economic imbalances become worse and China's export trade is facing severe dilemma. At the same time, China is playing an important role in foreign direct investment after "going out" strategy put out. China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) is gradually developing as the export trade suffering serious trade frictions, the domestic market being saturated and the employment pressure increasing. Then the research on relationship between OFDI and export during this period has great theoretical and practical significance. The dissertation finds that most research is based on macro-levels and moreover it hasn't provided consistent, simple or clear empirical test methods. There is much difference among theoretical assumptions and conclusions and most of the empirical research is based on the developed countries'data. Both theoretical and empirical research about relationship of OFDI and export commodity structure is very little. Therefore, this dissertation carrises on two studies:On the one hand, it trys to study the relationship between OFDI and export scale on the micro-level.On the other hand, it explores the theory mechanism of impact of OFDI on export commodity structure and further develops empirical analysis using China's data.
Firstly, the dissertation systematically summarizes the status quo of China's OFDI, export trade and export commodity structure, revealing the current problems of OFDI and China's foreign trade difficulties after the financial crisis. It describes the relationship among OFDI、export scale and export commodity structure, in order to lay reality basis for in-depth study behind. Nextly, it establishes dynamic equilibrium model based on the uncertainty of the host country's market to analyze the choosing path of OFDI and export. The concept of market demand effects is proposed on the original substitution effect, revealing a new hypothesis and its proof. The other hand, it studies the relationship of OFDI and export commodity structure on the macro-level, exploring the theoretical mechanism of impact. Then it verifies the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure using data from China's manufacturing industry, after building the industrial structure's advancement and rationalization indicators. Thus it uses China's macro-level data to validate the relationship between industrial structure and export structure, trying to prove that OFDI has indirect effects on export commodity structure optimization. Finally, it tests the direct impact of OFDI on the export commodity structure and analyzes the differences in regions, using quantitative analysis method based on 31 provinces and autonomous regions of China's exports for 2002-2007 data.
Through the above study it found that:(1) The fixed costs of OFDI and the host country's market size are major factors affecting the choosing paths of OFDI and export. Due to the existence of sunk costs, the home country generally does OFDI until the capacity of the host country's market demand becomes large enough. So OFDI tends to occur after the export behavior. (2) In the OFDI's initial stage, the current OFDI often replaces the exports. However, the substitution effect only happens in the early stage of OFDI. When the OFDI and export trade are mature, the relationship between them often changes to complementary relationship from substitution relationship. (3) There exists an industrial structure optimization effect of manufacture industry's OFDI, while the macro data proves that it's highly relevant to industrial structure and export commodity structure.Furthermore the third industry's export optimization effect is more obvious than the second industry's. It shows that OFDI has indirect effects on export commodity structure. However, manufacture industry's exports did not improve the industrial structure, actually making it worse, which means that it can not be blind in expanding exports in order to increase external demand, but to pay attention to optimal adjustment of the export commodity structure. In the current, we should contribute to the export transformation and industrial structure optimization. (4) OFDI has a certain role in promoting the export commodity structure's advancement, having more obvious than FDI. General trade exports and human capital are also main factors impacting China's export commodity structure.
The principal innovations of this dissertation are as follows:Firstly, it establishes dynamic equilibrium model based on the uncertainty of the host country's market to study the dynamic changes of OFDI and exports scale. Secondly, it explores the mechanism of impact of OFDI on the export commodity structure. It tests the relationship among OFDI industrial structure and export commodity structure empirically, verifying OFDI's indirect impact on the export commodity structure. Thirdly, it, for the first time, empirically studies the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure on the industry level, making the analysis more focused and guiding significant. And the index system were established to rationalize the industrial structure and advancement, a comprehensive measurement of manufacturing industrial structure optimization, in order to ensure the reliability of the conclusions of quantitative analysis. Fourthly, it uses new approach to calculate structural optimization of export commodities based on China's 31 provinces and autonomous regions'exports data from 2002 to 2007 to test the export commodity structure of OFDI and analyze the differences in different regions. And further it tests other factors affecting export commodity structure optimization.
The present research at the micro level is not enough to go into a system. The study of the relationship between OFDI and export is still relatively scarce and the research methods need to be explored further. This dissertation attempts to analysis with a view to promoting the research on China's OFDI and export trade. Of course, due to the lack of enterprise level's data, it's difficult to take empirical analysis on enterprise level, which becomes a shortcoming of this study.
引文
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