工程项目集成风险管理理论与方法研究
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摘要
随着经济结构的变化,市场竞争日益激烈,工程建设项目的投资逐渐加大、生产周期加长等,使项目建设实施过程中面临各种各样的风险,项目风险管理变得更加复杂。但是,我国当前风险管理的研究还仅限于一般的风险管理过程和单一风险分析模型及应用方面的研究;另外,由于项目参与方众多,各方从自身的角度进行风险管理,使项目风险管理处于分割与分散化状态,缺乏有关风险管理体系和系统的全面研究。为改变这种状况,利用系统思维的方法从工程项目整体角度提出有效集成风险管理的理论方法,具有非常重要的意义。本论文从集成化的角度,对项目集成风险管理理论和方法进行了研究。
建立了工程项目集成风险管理的理论框架。提出了以风险管理目标实现为核心,风险管理信息系统为手段,项目风险管理全寿命周期集成、项目风险管理组织集成和项目风险管理过程及方法集成为内容的理论模型。工程项目全寿命周期划分为决策、设计、实施和试运营四个阶段,工程项目集成风险管理的各部分是连续的、动态的,是贯穿项目全寿命周期的。
根据项目集成风险管理的理论框架,分别从风险管理目标集成、风险管理过程与方法集成、风险管理组织集成以及风险管理信息系统四个方面进行了研究。
在风险管理目标集成方面,提出了不确定条件下项目多目标模糊均衡优化方法。工程项目风险管理目标集成的实质是实现项目多目标的均衡。由于项目实施过程中存在诸多不确定性,研究了不确定性条件下工期、费用和质量目标的均衡优化问题。根据不同决策风险水平,建立了工程项目模糊多目标均衡优化模型,给出了在不同可能性水平下的最优折衷解变化范围,使决策者可以根据决策风险大小,来确定工程项目目标优化值,为工程项目目标的确定提供决策支持。
在风险管理过程和方法的集成方面,建立风险管理环实现工程项目风险管理过程的集成,提出了改进风险矩阵方法和基于合作的工程项目风险模糊评价方法。工程项目风险管理过程包括风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控四个阶段,利用项目风险管理环将项目风险管理四个阶段进行了集成。并在此基础上,同项目管理过程和项目全寿命周期进行了集成。对项目风险管理方法的优点、缺点和适用范围进行了汇总分析,指出项目风险管理方法的集成就是适应项目的不同阶段和不同特点选用合适的方法。提出了改进的风险矩阵方法,考虑了项目不同参与方对项目风险的看法不同,对不同的风险排序又进行了集中决策。分析了影响项目目标的各风险因素,将项目各参与方在目标保障上的合作性作为影响因素考虑到整体风险评价模型中。同时,考虑同一风险因素对不同项目目标的影响,采用修正模糊AHP方法分别确定各风险因素在不同目标风险中的权重,建立了基于合作的项目风险模糊评价模型,利用模糊推理方法,进行项目整体风险的评估,并在某体育馆项目上进行了应用。
在风险管理组织集成方面,建立了风险管理虚拟团队,利用演化博弈理论对项目各方的合作策略进行了分析。提出建立跨越组织边界,依托项目全寿命周期信息平台,以合作关系为组织环境的项目风险管理虚拟团队,实现对项目风险的共同管理,提高风险管理的效率。从项目各参与方都是有限理性的特点出发,以业主和承包商为例,利用演化博弈理论分析了项目各参与方的合作策略,指出促进项目各方合作需要建立信息的共享与交流渠道和评价与激励机制体系。
提出工程项目集成风险管理信息系统框架,建立了基于数据网格技术的工程项目全寿命周期动态信息的发现和共享流程。工程项目集成风险管理信息系统包括风险管理系统、风险管理数据库和风险管理外部支持系统。其中风险管理系统由风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控四个子系统组成;风险管理数据库由风险数据库和风险措施方案数据库组成;风险管理外部支持系统由风险管理知识库、模型库和案例库组成,并对其各部分的功能进行了阐述。为更好地描述风险,在风险结构分解的基础上,给出了风险管理数据库字段的设计和编码方式。考虑工程项目信息沿全寿命周期的动态性,给出了工程项目信息分类及数学表达式,利用数据网格技术探索了工程项目全寿命周期动态信息的发现与共享流程。
Along with the change of economic structure, severity of market competition, investment increasing and production cycle becoming longer, more risks are encountered during project construction process and the project risk management becomes more complex. However, the research only stays on common process and single analysis model of risk management. On the other hand, there are many participants exist and they carry through risk management by themselves. Thus the project risk management is discrete and the integrated risk management system is absent. It is very important to bring forward the theory and methods of integrated risk management and this paper studies on this problem.
The integrated risk management theory frame is presented. The integration of objectives is center and the information system is tool of theory model. The integration of total lifecycle, process and methods and organization is content of theory model. The total lifecycle includes four phases and they are decision-making phase, design phase, construction phase and trial operation phase. The integrated risk management is continuous, dynamic during the total lifecycle.
Based on the theory model, the integration of objectives, process and methods, organization and information system are studied.
On the integration of objectives, the multi-objective fuzzy trade-off optimization method under uncertainty is presented. The integration of objectives are to realize the trade-off among the objectives. Much uncertainty exists in the construction project, so the trade-off optimization problem of time,cost and quality is discussed under uncertainty. The trade-off optimization model is presented based on different risk level. The optimization compromise solutions of objectives are found under different risk levels. So that decision-makers can choose appropriate objectives according to the risk level.
On the integration of risk management process and methods, the risk management cycle is given and the modified risk matrix and risk fuzzy evaluation method based on the cooperation are presented. The risk management process include risk identification, risk evaluation, risk handling and risk monitoring. The risk cycle can integrate the four phase of risk management. The integration of risk management and project management is also discussed. The risk management methods are gathered and the advantages, disadvantages and application ranges are listed. The meaning of integrated risk management methods is to choose the appropriate method according to the different phases and characteristics of construction project. Considering the risk views of different participants are different, the modified risk matrix which can help to make decision is discussed. The risk factors influencing project objectives are listed, and the cooperation of project participants to guarantee objectives is considered in the risk evaluation model as a influence parameter. The weight of risk factors are computed by fuzzy AHP method, and the weight of same factor is different in different objective risks. The risk evaluation model is established based on cooperation of project participants, and it can be used to evaluate the total project risk by fuzzy reasoning. This method is applied to some gymnasium project.
On the integration of risk management organization, the virtual risk management team is established and the cooperation strategies of participants are analyzed by the evolvement game theory. The virtual risk management team spans the organization boundary, regards cooperation as organization environment and relies on the project total lifecycle information flat. The virtual team carries out risk management and the efficiency of risk management is enhanced. The project participants are finite rational, taking owner and contractor as example, the cooperation strategies of participants are analyzed by the evolvement game theory. It is concluded that promoting the cooperation of participants needs the information sharing and stimulating mechanism.
The project integrated risk management information system is presented. It is established that the flow chart of dynamic information discovery and share based on the data grid in project total lifecycle. The project integrated risk management information system includes the risk management system, risk management database and the exterior support system. The risk management system includes the four subsystems, they are risk identification, risk evaluation, risk handling and risk monitoring. The risk management database includes risk factor database and the measure database. The exterior support system includes knowledge database, model database and case database. Their functions are explained in this paper. Based on the hierarchical risk breakdown structure, the field and coding of risk database are designed. It is presented that the information classification and mathematic expression. The flow chart of dynamic information discovery and share is given based on the data grid technology in total lifecycle.
建立了工程项目集成风险管理的理论框架。提出了以风险管理目标实现为核心,风险管理信息系统为手段,项目风险管理全寿命周期集成、项目风险管理组织集成和项目风险管理过程及方法集成为内容的理论模型。工程项目全寿命周期划分为决策、设计、实施和试运营四个阶段,工程项目集成风险管理的各部分是连续的、动态的,是贯穿项目全寿命周期的。
根据项目集成风险管理的理论框架,分别从风险管理目标集成、风险管理过程与方法集成、风险管理组织集成以及风险管理信息系统四个方面进行了研究。
在风险管理目标集成方面,提出了不确定条件下项目多目标模糊均衡优化方法。工程项目风险管理目标集成的实质是实现项目多目标的均衡。由于项目实施过程中存在诸多不确定性,研究了不确定性条件下工期、费用和质量目标的均衡优化问题。根据不同决策风险水平,建立了工程项目模糊多目标均衡优化模型,给出了在不同可能性水平下的最优折衷解变化范围,使决策者可以根据决策风险大小,来确定工程项目目标优化值,为工程项目目标的确定提供决策支持。
在风险管理过程和方法的集成方面,建立风险管理环实现工程项目风险管理过程的集成,提出了改进风险矩阵方法和基于合作的工程项目风险模糊评价方法。工程项目风险管理过程包括风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控四个阶段,利用项目风险管理环将项目风险管理四个阶段进行了集成。并在此基础上,同项目管理过程和项目全寿命周期进行了集成。对项目风险管理方法的优点、缺点和适用范围进行了汇总分析,指出项目风险管理方法的集成就是适应项目的不同阶段和不同特点选用合适的方法。提出了改进的风险矩阵方法,考虑了项目不同参与方对项目风险的看法不同,对不同的风险排序又进行了集中决策。分析了影响项目目标的各风险因素,将项目各参与方在目标保障上的合作性作为影响因素考虑到整体风险评价模型中。同时,考虑同一风险因素对不同项目目标的影响,采用修正模糊AHP方法分别确定各风险因素在不同目标风险中的权重,建立了基于合作的项目风险模糊评价模型,利用模糊推理方法,进行项目整体风险的评估,并在某体育馆项目上进行了应用。
在风险管理组织集成方面,建立了风险管理虚拟团队,利用演化博弈理论对项目各方的合作策略进行了分析。提出建立跨越组织边界,依托项目全寿命周期信息平台,以合作关系为组织环境的项目风险管理虚拟团队,实现对项目风险的共同管理,提高风险管理的效率。从项目各参与方都是有限理性的特点出发,以业主和承包商为例,利用演化博弈理论分析了项目各参与方的合作策略,指出促进项目各方合作需要建立信息的共享与交流渠道和评价与激励机制体系。
提出工程项目集成风险管理信息系统框架,建立了基于数据网格技术的工程项目全寿命周期动态信息的发现和共享流程。工程项目集成风险管理信息系统包括风险管理系统、风险管理数据库和风险管理外部支持系统。其中风险管理系统由风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控四个子系统组成;风险管理数据库由风险数据库和风险措施方案数据库组成;风险管理外部支持系统由风险管理知识库、模型库和案例库组成,并对其各部分的功能进行了阐述。为更好地描述风险,在风险结构分解的基础上,给出了风险管理数据库字段的设计和编码方式。考虑工程项目信息沿全寿命周期的动态性,给出了工程项目信息分类及数学表达式,利用数据网格技术探索了工程项目全寿命周期动态信息的发现与共享流程。
Along with the change of economic structure, severity of market competition, investment increasing and production cycle becoming longer, more risks are encountered during project construction process and the project risk management becomes more complex. However, the research only stays on common process and single analysis model of risk management. On the other hand, there are many participants exist and they carry through risk management by themselves. Thus the project risk management is discrete and the integrated risk management system is absent. It is very important to bring forward the theory and methods of integrated risk management and this paper studies on this problem.
The integrated risk management theory frame is presented. The integration of objectives is center and the information system is tool of theory model. The integration of total lifecycle, process and methods and organization is content of theory model. The total lifecycle includes four phases and they are decision-making phase, design phase, construction phase and trial operation phase. The integrated risk management is continuous, dynamic during the total lifecycle.
Based on the theory model, the integration of objectives, process and methods, organization and information system are studied.
On the integration of objectives, the multi-objective fuzzy trade-off optimization method under uncertainty is presented. The integration of objectives are to realize the trade-off among the objectives. Much uncertainty exists in the construction project, so the trade-off optimization problem of time,cost and quality is discussed under uncertainty. The trade-off optimization model is presented based on different risk level. The optimization compromise solutions of objectives are found under different risk levels. So that decision-makers can choose appropriate objectives according to the risk level.
On the integration of risk management process and methods, the risk management cycle is given and the modified risk matrix and risk fuzzy evaluation method based on the cooperation are presented. The risk management process include risk identification, risk evaluation, risk handling and risk monitoring. The risk cycle can integrate the four phase of risk management. The integration of risk management and project management is also discussed. The risk management methods are gathered and the advantages, disadvantages and application ranges are listed. The meaning of integrated risk management methods is to choose the appropriate method according to the different phases and characteristics of construction project. Considering the risk views of different participants are different, the modified risk matrix which can help to make decision is discussed. The risk factors influencing project objectives are listed, and the cooperation of project participants to guarantee objectives is considered in the risk evaluation model as a influence parameter. The weight of risk factors are computed by fuzzy AHP method, and the weight of same factor is different in different objective risks. The risk evaluation model is established based on cooperation of project participants, and it can be used to evaluate the total project risk by fuzzy reasoning. This method is applied to some gymnasium project.
On the integration of risk management organization, the virtual risk management team is established and the cooperation strategies of participants are analyzed by the evolvement game theory. The virtual risk management team spans the organization boundary, regards cooperation as organization environment and relies on the project total lifecycle information flat. The virtual team carries out risk management and the efficiency of risk management is enhanced. The project participants are finite rational, taking owner and contractor as example, the cooperation strategies of participants are analyzed by the evolvement game theory. It is concluded that promoting the cooperation of participants needs the information sharing and stimulating mechanism.
The project integrated risk management information system is presented. It is established that the flow chart of dynamic information discovery and share based on the data grid in project total lifecycle. The project integrated risk management information system includes the risk management system, risk management database and the exterior support system. The risk management system includes the four subsystems, they are risk identification, risk evaluation, risk handling and risk monitoring. The risk management database includes risk factor database and the measure database. The exterior support system includes knowledge database, model database and case database. Their functions are explained in this paper. Based on the hierarchical risk breakdown structure, the field and coding of risk database are designed. It is presented that the information classification and mathematic expression. The flow chart of dynamic information discovery and share is given based on the data grid technology in total lifecycle.
引文
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