人力资本与农村劳动力非农就业研究
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摘要
“三农”问题的核心是农民问题。促进农业剩余劳动力从农业领域转移，大力实施非农化就业，是推动农村经济发展、农民收入增长和统筹城乡发展的重要举措。本文主要从人力资本视角对农村劳动力非农就业进行研究，主要的分析方法包括理论分析和实证分析。理论分析部分有的采用借鉴已有研究的方法，有的采用对已有理论加以改进的方法；实证研究则主要采用了计量分析的方法，计量分析的数据包括统计部门发布的宏观数据和笔者组织调研获得的微观数据。
本文的主要内容包括以下六个方面：
(1)分别构建了宏观和微观视角下的农村劳动力非农就业模型。在宏观视角下，本文根据我国国情，构建了一个四元经济社会下农村劳动力非农迁移模型，并对模型的政策含义进行讨论；微观视角下，本文从劳动者效应最大化入手，构建了农村劳动力非农劳动参与和非农劳动时间模型。
(2)从收入最大化的角度，构建了农户的人力资本投资决策模型。该模型认为，人力资本投资与人力资本回报率成正比，与消费品价格成反比，另外，人力资本投资还受到制度和文化的影响。结合我国现实，该模型很好地解释了我国农村人力资本投资低下的原因。
(3)分别从宏观和微观视角探讨了人力资本影响非农就业的机理。宏观方面，人力资本从非农劳动供给和非农劳动需求两个方面影响非农就业；微观方面，人力资本的作用表现为影响劳动者的非农就业决策能力、非农就业机会把握能力、非农职业胜任能力和非农就业收益能力。
(4)宏观方面的经验分析。本文首先运用推拉理论，实证分析了我国农村劳动力非农就业规模的影响因素，发现人力资本变量对非农就业规模有显著的正影响；接着本文对农户人力资本投资与非农就业收入的关系进行了探讨，发现教育投资和迁移投资对非农就业收入都有着显著的正效应，而健康投资的作用为负，本文从农村居民收入低、医疗负担重等方面进行了解释，并指出了政策含义。
(5)微观方面的经验分析。本文运用调研数据，分别分析了人力资本对非农就业参与、人力资本对非农就业时间、人力资本对非农就业工资的影响。结论显示，较高学历和拥有技能队非农就业参与和非农就业时间都有正的影响；但高学历的工资效应并不明显，而拥有技能却可以显著提高非农工资，教育投资回报率仅为2．3％，而有技能的劳动者比没有的非农收入要高21％。本文还对这些现象进行了解释。
(6)根据文中的结论，提出促进非农就业和加强人力资本投资的一些政策建议，尤其是针对教育回报率低、医疗负担沉重、职业教育薄弱、非农就业保障机制不健全等情况，提出构筑支持农村人力资本投资和非农就业发展的制度体系。
This paper mainly focuses on the relationship between human capital and off-farm employment of rural labor force. The analytical method of the paper involves theoretical analysis & empirical analysis, macro analysis and micro analysis. There are six main parts of the paper:
(1) The paper builts off-farm employment models of rural labor force under macro and micro view respectively. In the view of macro, the paper builds a migration model in quarter economics, which differentiates formal model; in the view of micro, the paper builds models of off-farm employment participation and off-farm employment time, which under the hypothesis of maximization of utility.
(2) The paper also builds a human capital investment decision model. The model finds that the return of human capital has a positive effect on human capital investment and the price of goods has a negative effect. In addition, institutional and cultural factors also influence the human capital investment of farmers.
(3) The paper analyses the mechanism of human capital plays on off-farm work in the view of macro and micro respectively. In macro aspect, human capital influences off-farm employment from off-farm labor supply and off-farm labor need. In micro aspect, human capital influences off-farm employment from four ways: the ability of off-farm employment decision, the ability of grabbing the chance of off-farm employment, the ability of been competent for off-farm employment and the ability of off-farm employment income.
(4) The paper analyses the influential factors of off-farm employment using "push-and-pull" theory, furthermore, the paper also analyses the relation of education investment、migration investment、health investment and off-farm income of farmer.
(5) Using micro data, the paper empirically analyses the effect of human capital on off-farm work participation、off-farm work time、off-farm work salary. The paper gives some explanation of the results of the econometrica model.
(6) Based on the conclusion of the paper, the last part gives some policy suggestion, especially for the low return of human capital, heavy burden of medical treatment, backward professional education, and weak security mechanism of off-farm employment.
本文的主要内容包括以下六个方面：
(1)分别构建了宏观和微观视角下的农村劳动力非农就业模型。在宏观视角下，本文根据我国国情，构建了一个四元经济社会下农村劳动力非农迁移模型，并对模型的政策含义进行讨论；微观视角下，本文从劳动者效应最大化入手，构建了农村劳动力非农劳动参与和非农劳动时间模型。
(2)从收入最大化的角度，构建了农户的人力资本投资决策模型。该模型认为，人力资本投资与人力资本回报率成正比，与消费品价格成反比，另外，人力资本投资还受到制度和文化的影响。结合我国现实，该模型很好地解释了我国农村人力资本投资低下的原因。
(3)分别从宏观和微观视角探讨了人力资本影响非农就业的机理。宏观方面，人力资本从非农劳动供给和非农劳动需求两个方面影响非农就业；微观方面，人力资本的作用表现为影响劳动者的非农就业决策能力、非农就业机会把握能力、非农职业胜任能力和非农就业收益能力。
(4)宏观方面的经验分析。本文首先运用推拉理论，实证分析了我国农村劳动力非农就业规模的影响因素，发现人力资本变量对非农就业规模有显著的正影响；接着本文对农户人力资本投资与非农就业收入的关系进行了探讨，发现教育投资和迁移投资对非农就业收入都有着显著的正效应，而健康投资的作用为负，本文从农村居民收入低、医疗负担重等方面进行了解释，并指出了政策含义。
(5)微观方面的经验分析。本文运用调研数据，分别分析了人力资本对非农就业参与、人力资本对非农就业时间、人力资本对非农就业工资的影响。结论显示，较高学历和拥有技能队非农就业参与和非农就业时间都有正的影响；但高学历的工资效应并不明显，而拥有技能却可以显著提高非农工资，教育投资回报率仅为2．3％，而有技能的劳动者比没有的非农收入要高21％。本文还对这些现象进行了解释。
(6)根据文中的结论，提出促进非农就业和加强人力资本投资的一些政策建议，尤其是针对教育回报率低、医疗负担沉重、职业教育薄弱、非农就业保障机制不健全等情况，提出构筑支持农村人力资本投资和非农就业发展的制度体系。
This paper mainly focuses on the relationship between human capital and off-farm employment of rural labor force. The analytical method of the paper involves theoretical analysis & empirical analysis, macro analysis and micro analysis. There are six main parts of the paper:
(1) The paper builts off-farm employment models of rural labor force under macro and micro view respectively. In the view of macro, the paper builds a migration model in quarter economics, which differentiates formal model; in the view of micro, the paper builds models of off-farm employment participation and off-farm employment time, which under the hypothesis of maximization of utility.
(2) The paper also builds a human capital investment decision model. The model finds that the return of human capital has a positive effect on human capital investment and the price of goods has a negative effect. In addition, institutional and cultural factors also influence the human capital investment of farmers.
(3) The paper analyses the mechanism of human capital plays on off-farm work in the view of macro and micro respectively. In macro aspect, human capital influences off-farm employment from off-farm labor supply and off-farm labor need. In micro aspect, human capital influences off-farm employment from four ways: the ability of off-farm employment decision, the ability of grabbing the chance of off-farm employment, the ability of been competent for off-farm employment and the ability of off-farm employment income.
(4) The paper analyses the influential factors of off-farm employment using "push-and-pull" theory, furthermore, the paper also analyses the relation of education investment、migration investment、health investment and off-farm income of farmer.
(5) Using micro data, the paper empirically analyses the effect of human capital on off-farm work participation、off-farm work time、off-farm work salary. The paper gives some explanation of the results of the econometrica model.
(6) Based on the conclusion of the paper, the last part gives some policy suggestion, especially for the low return of human capital, heavy burden of medical treatment, backward professional education, and weak security mechanism of off-farm employment.
引文
[1] Mincer, Jacob "Studies in Human Capital: Collected Essays of Jacob Mincer, Volume 1 ", Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1993
[2] [美]西奥多·舒尔茨著，吴珠华等译，《论人力资本投资》，北京：北京经济学院出版社，1990
[1] [美]加里·S·贝克尔，《人力资本》，北京：北京大学出版社，1987
[2] 张培刚、张建华，《发展经济学教程》，北京：经济科学出版社，2001
[1] 通过农业家庭模型的求解，即可得到这个结论，具体参见Singh et al．(1986)。
[1] [美]加里·S·贝克尔，《人力资本》，北京：北京大学出版社，1987
[1] 戚鲁，《人力资源：能本管理与能力建设》，人民出版社，2005
[1] 参见杜鹰的文章(Du，2000)。此文，黄平也对许多人们通常列举的诸如土地压力、收入差距驱动等推动劳动力转移的因素的决定性作用提出质疑(参见黄平主编，1997：导论)
[1] 都阳：《中国贫困地区农户劳动供给研究》，华文出版社，2001．
[1] 现在农村留守人员有“993861部队”的说法，说的就是这种情况。
[2] 金沙《农民工回流与我国二元经济结构的转换》，《经济纵横》2009年第1期。
[1] 见J.Heckman,"Sample Selection Bias as A Specifications Error,"Econometrica，1979
[2] 实际上这个工作在本章的第一节已经做过，在这里对Probit模型的估计主要是要得到逆米尔斯(Inverse Mills Ratio)，用于对工资方程的纠偏。
[3] 表6并未报告Probit纠偏方程的结果，它同第一节的结果是一样的。
[1] [美]加里．S．贝克尔．《人力资本》，北京大学出版社，1987
[2] 德里克．博斯沃斯《劳动市场经济学》，中国经济出版社，2003年。
[3] 可以参见Zabaza & Arrufat(1985)、Joshi & Newell(1987)关于女性就业的文章。
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[1] [美]加里·S·贝克尔，《人力资本》，北京：北京大学出版社，1987
[2] 张培刚、张建华，《发展经济学教程》，北京：经济科学出版社，2001
[1] 通过农业家庭模型的求解，即可得到这个结论，具体参见Singh et al．(1986)。
[1] [美]加里·S·贝克尔，《人力资本》，北京：北京大学出版社，1987
[1] 戚鲁，《人力资源：能本管理与能力建设》，人民出版社，2005
[1] 参见杜鹰的文章(Du，2000)。此文，黄平也对许多人们通常列举的诸如土地压力、收入差距驱动等推动劳动力转移的因素的决定性作用提出质疑(参见黄平主编，1997：导论)
[1] 都阳：《中国贫困地区农户劳动供给研究》，华文出版社，2001．
[1] 现在农村留守人员有“993861部队”的说法，说的就是这种情况。
[2] 金沙《农民工回流与我国二元经济结构的转换》，《经济纵横》2009年第1期。
[1] 见J.Heckman,"Sample Selection Bias as A Specifications Error,"Econometrica，1979
[2] 实际上这个工作在本章的第一节已经做过，在这里对Probit模型的估计主要是要得到逆米尔斯(Inverse Mills Ratio)，用于对工资方程的纠偏。
[3] 表6并未报告Probit纠偏方程的结果，它同第一节的结果是一样的。
[1] [美]加里．S．贝克尔．《人力资本》，北京大学出版社，1987
[2] 德里克．博斯沃斯《劳动市场经济学》，中国经济出版社，2003年。
[3] 可以参见Zabaza & Arrufat(1985)、Joshi & Newell(1987)关于女性就业的文章。
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