流域水电规划环境影响的经济评价
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摘要
流域水电资源开发的快速发展在带来显著经济效益的同时,对流域生态环境的负面影响也日益彰显。人们开始认识到,流域水电开发所产生的负面环境影响在流域水电规划阶段必须给予足够的重视。因此,开展流域水电规划的环境影响评价成为一个必然的发展趋势。流域水电规划环境影响的经济评价是流域水电规划环境影响评价不可或缺的组成部分,它针对水电规划实施后可能对流域自然环境和社会环境造成的影响进行预估和货币化评价,从整个社会的层面上探讨生态环境和社会经济的损与益,可弥补单纯进行环境质量评价的不足,把经济发展与环境保护结合起来,为规划决策提供支撑。
本文基于环境评价、环境经济学、环境管理学和生态经济学等多学科的基本理论,结合文献检索、资料收集、理论分析、公众参与、专家咨询、社会调研、现场踏勘和案例研究等方法,探讨流域水电规划实施后对社会产生的各种环境影响,构建了流域水电规划环境影响的经济评价方法体系,并将该方法体系应用于实际案例中。论文取得了以下研究成果:
(1)对流域水电规划、环境影响评价、规划环境影响评价等相关概念进行分析,阐述了规划环境影响的经济评价与规划环境影响评价二者的关系,并从福利经济学的角度,探讨了流域水电规划环境影响经济评价的理论基础,包括帕累托效率、支付意愿、消费者剩余和外部性等理论。
(2)针对流域水电规划环境影响的自身特点,界定了评价的时空范围;从社会经济和生态环境角度出发,对流域水电规划实施后的环境影响进行了较全面的识别,并构建了相应的影响因素识别矩阵;在对国内外常用的环境价值评估方法的适用范围、条件和优缺点进行较全面的对比分析的基础上,确定水电规划各种环境影响的评价指标,并建立相应的评估模型,进而构建了流域水电规划经济评价方法体系。
(3)根据可操作性原则,将构建的流域水电规划环境影响经济评价方法体系具体运用于九龙江流域水电规划环境影响经济评价的案例研究中,尝试对流域水电规划各类环境影响进行货币化评估。结果显示,九龙江流域已建在建水电工程从近期来看经济效益显著;但是从长远来看,由于其造成的生态损失和资源破坏的不可逆性,如野生河鱼物种的灭绝,付出的代价是巨大的,最终带来的社会净效益可能为负值;拟建的枋洋水利枢纽工程从生态环境与社会经济角度综合考虑,基本可行;规划的汰口水电站如予实施,每年带来的经济净效益为1062.53万元,但造成的生态环境与资源的净损失为5174.4万元,社会净效益为-3127.82万元。从生态环境与社会经济角度综合考虑,该工程不可行;规划的渡头水电站如予实施,每年带来的经济净效益为273.16万元,并不显著,但造成的生态净损失为1059.22万元,社会净效益为-509.95万元。从生态环境与社会经济角度综合考虑,该工程尚不具合理性。可见九龙江流域水电工程开发对九龙江流域生态环境的负面影响不容忽视,水电工程在建设和运营过程应尽可能避免对九龙江流域的生态系统造成破坏。
River basin hydroelectric development will produce a lot of benefits, and it will also influence the ecological environment of river basin to a great extent. It is realized that we should pay more attention to the negative impacts caused by river basin hydroelectric development, so it is important to carry out the environmental impacts assessment of river basin hydroelectric planning. The economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning is a necessary part of the environmental impacts assessment. The social and environmental impacts are evaluated in advance and the costs and benefits of ecological environment and social economy are discussed from the social perspective during economic appraisal process. Economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning makes up for a deficiency of environmental quality impact assessment and integrates environmental protection and economic development, in expectation of giving the scientific support for the decision-making of river basin hydroelectric development.
In this dissertation, the environmental impacts of river basin hydroelectric planning are studied by means of reference and material research, theoretical analysis, public participation, expert consultation, field survey, local exploration and case study, using the interdisciplinary theories in environmental assessment, environmental economics, environmental management and ecological economics, etc. The methodology of the economic appraisal of the river basin hydroelectric planning was established, and then applied to the case. The main achievements of this dissertation were as follows.
First, the relative concepts such as river basin hydroelectric planning, environmental impact assessment, environmental impact assessment for planning, etc, were put forward, and the relationship between economic appraisal of environmental impacts for planning and environmental impacts assessment for planning was analyzed. The theoretical foundation of economic appraisal was discussed, including Pareto Optimality, Willingness to Pay, Consumer's Surplus and Externality, from the perspective of welfare economics.
Second, according to the character of economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning, the space-time scope was defined, and the environmental impacts of river basin hydroelectric planning were analyzed, and then the identification matrix is formed. The existing methods for monetary evaluation of environment were discussed, and their applicable conditions, advantages and disadvantages were roundly compared, which laid the foundation for establishing the indexes, models, methodology of the economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning.
Third, based on the reality and concreteness, the methodology of the economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning was applied to Jiulong River basin hydroelectric planning, and monetary evaluation of environmental impacts of river basin hydroelectric planning was carried out. The results showed that remarkable economic effects were obtained from Jiulong River basin hydroelectric planning in short term, which was at the expense of ecological environment destruction. Because the ecological environment destruction, for example, the wild fish's extinction, was not reversible, the social benefits were probably less than the social costs. Fang Yang Key Water Control Project was feasible, considering the impacts of ecological environment and social economy. The economic net benefit of Tai Kou hydropower station would be RMB10.6253 million a year, while the net cost of ecological environment destruction was RMB517,440, and the social net profit was RMB-31.2782 million, so it was not feasible from the perspective of ecological environment and social economy. The economic net benefit of Du Tou hydropower station would be RMB2.7316 million a year, while the net cost of ecological environment destruction was RMB 10.5922 million, and the social net profit was RMB-5.0995 million, so it was not reasonable. In conclusion, the negative environmental impacts from Jiu Long river basin hydroelectric development were noticeable, so we should keep away from ecological environment destruction during the process of hydroelectric development.
本文基于环境评价、环境经济学、环境管理学和生态经济学等多学科的基本理论,结合文献检索、资料收集、理论分析、公众参与、专家咨询、社会调研、现场踏勘和案例研究等方法,探讨流域水电规划实施后对社会产生的各种环境影响,构建了流域水电规划环境影响的经济评价方法体系,并将该方法体系应用于实际案例中。论文取得了以下研究成果:
(1)对流域水电规划、环境影响评价、规划环境影响评价等相关概念进行分析,阐述了规划环境影响的经济评价与规划环境影响评价二者的关系,并从福利经济学的角度,探讨了流域水电规划环境影响经济评价的理论基础,包括帕累托效率、支付意愿、消费者剩余和外部性等理论。
(2)针对流域水电规划环境影响的自身特点,界定了评价的时空范围;从社会经济和生态环境角度出发,对流域水电规划实施后的环境影响进行了较全面的识别,并构建了相应的影响因素识别矩阵;在对国内外常用的环境价值评估方法的适用范围、条件和优缺点进行较全面的对比分析的基础上,确定水电规划各种环境影响的评价指标,并建立相应的评估模型,进而构建了流域水电规划经济评价方法体系。
(3)根据可操作性原则,将构建的流域水电规划环境影响经济评价方法体系具体运用于九龙江流域水电规划环境影响经济评价的案例研究中,尝试对流域水电规划各类环境影响进行货币化评估。结果显示,九龙江流域已建在建水电工程从近期来看经济效益显著;但是从长远来看,由于其造成的生态损失和资源破坏的不可逆性,如野生河鱼物种的灭绝,付出的代价是巨大的,最终带来的社会净效益可能为负值;拟建的枋洋水利枢纽工程从生态环境与社会经济角度综合考虑,基本可行;规划的汰口水电站如予实施,每年带来的经济净效益为1062.53万元,但造成的生态环境与资源的净损失为5174.4万元,社会净效益为-3127.82万元。从生态环境与社会经济角度综合考虑,该工程不可行;规划的渡头水电站如予实施,每年带来的经济净效益为273.16万元,并不显著,但造成的生态净损失为1059.22万元,社会净效益为-509.95万元。从生态环境与社会经济角度综合考虑,该工程尚不具合理性。可见九龙江流域水电工程开发对九龙江流域生态环境的负面影响不容忽视,水电工程在建设和运营过程应尽可能避免对九龙江流域的生态系统造成破坏。
River basin hydroelectric development will produce a lot of benefits, and it will also influence the ecological environment of river basin to a great extent. It is realized that we should pay more attention to the negative impacts caused by river basin hydroelectric development, so it is important to carry out the environmental impacts assessment of river basin hydroelectric planning. The economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning is a necessary part of the environmental impacts assessment. The social and environmental impacts are evaluated in advance and the costs and benefits of ecological environment and social economy are discussed from the social perspective during economic appraisal process. Economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning makes up for a deficiency of environmental quality impact assessment and integrates environmental protection and economic development, in expectation of giving the scientific support for the decision-making of river basin hydroelectric development.
In this dissertation, the environmental impacts of river basin hydroelectric planning are studied by means of reference and material research, theoretical analysis, public participation, expert consultation, field survey, local exploration and case study, using the interdisciplinary theories in environmental assessment, environmental economics, environmental management and ecological economics, etc. The methodology of the economic appraisal of the river basin hydroelectric planning was established, and then applied to the case. The main achievements of this dissertation were as follows.
First, the relative concepts such as river basin hydroelectric planning, environmental impact assessment, environmental impact assessment for planning, etc, were put forward, and the relationship between economic appraisal of environmental impacts for planning and environmental impacts assessment for planning was analyzed. The theoretical foundation of economic appraisal was discussed, including Pareto Optimality, Willingness to Pay, Consumer's Surplus and Externality, from the perspective of welfare economics.
Second, according to the character of economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning, the space-time scope was defined, and the environmental impacts of river basin hydroelectric planning were analyzed, and then the identification matrix is formed. The existing methods for monetary evaluation of environment were discussed, and their applicable conditions, advantages and disadvantages were roundly compared, which laid the foundation for establishing the indexes, models, methodology of the economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning.
Third, based on the reality and concreteness, the methodology of the economic appraisal of river basin hydroelectric planning was applied to Jiulong River basin hydroelectric planning, and monetary evaluation of environmental impacts of river basin hydroelectric planning was carried out. The results showed that remarkable economic effects were obtained from Jiulong River basin hydroelectric planning in short term, which was at the expense of ecological environment destruction. Because the ecological environment destruction, for example, the wild fish's extinction, was not reversible, the social benefits were probably less than the social costs. Fang Yang Key Water Control Project was feasible, considering the impacts of ecological environment and social economy. The economic net benefit of Tai Kou hydropower station would be RMB10.6253 million a year, while the net cost of ecological environment destruction was RMB517,440, and the social net profit was RMB-31.2782 million, so it was not feasible from the perspective of ecological environment and social economy. The economic net benefit of Du Tou hydropower station would be RMB2.7316 million a year, while the net cost of ecological environment destruction was RMB 10.5922 million, and the social net profit was RMB-5.0995 million, so it was not reasonable. In conclusion, the negative environmental impacts from Jiu Long river basin hydroelectric development were noticeable, so we should keep away from ecological environment destruction during the process of hydroelectric development.
引文
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