化工园区规划环境风险评价方法与风险管理研究
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摘要
化学工业园区由于具有产品关联性强、公共基础设施共享和有利于污染集中治理等优势,得到了快速发展,已经成为国内外化工产业发展的主流模式。但是,由于化工园区内化工企业集中,易燃、易爆及有毒化学品危险源众多,一旦发生事故,后果十分严重。因此化工园区的环境风险问题是我国目前化工园区的建设与发展过程中需要解决的重大问题。如何对化工园区企业进行客观的风险评价,采取有效的环境风险管理,以确保生产安全和社会稳定,实现企业良性发展；如何对化工园区进行合理的规划,确定园区合理布局以及与周边规划区的防护距离,最大限度地降低环境风险事故造成的损失和影响,已经成为园区建设和管理者关心的核心问题。因此,开展基于环境风险的化工园区的规划评价研究,确定化工园区环境风险评价标准,合理规划园区风险防护距离,建立园区风险分级管理体系尤为重要。
本论文介绍了国内外环境风险评价的发展历程及不同层次的环境风险评价的研究进展,总结出我国化工园区环境风险评价的现状及存在的问题,确定了本论文的主要研究内容、技术路线和研究目的。
通过对国内外风险评价标准体系研究的分析,指出国内现有风险标准闽值用于短期急性接触空气浓度标准值的的缺陷和不足。通过对比分析国际上通用标准值的出台背景和意义、适用条件以及应用实例,提出了我国化工行业突发性环境污染事件环境风险评价的建议标准。
引入蒙特卡罗分析方法,解决模型概率参数设定的不确定性问题,通过蒙特卡洛分析方法与风险距离计算方法的有效整合,初步建立化工园区选址风险防护距离的计算方法。
根据环境风险系统理论,结合化工行业的特点,构建基于风险源固有风险、防控机制有效性、受体易损性的化工园区企业综合风险评估指标体系。引入突变评级法评价环境风险综合水平,提出基于突变理论的化工企业环境风险综合评价方法。根据平等分布函数原理,将综合评价指标划分为5个等级水平,以判别化工园区企业的综合风险水平。
以大连市松木岛化工园区为例,对所提出的建议标准和建立的安全距离计算方法、综合风险评价指标体系及评价方法进行了实例应用。
本课题的研究为化工园区的管理者提供了进行科学决策及管理的依据,有助于各级政府及化工园区开展安全和环境规划,保障人民群众的生命财产安全,保护环境资源,促进园区的可持续发展。
The construction of the chemical industrial park (CIP) had been a major driving force of the chemical industry both at home and abroad. However, dangerous chemical products, which are flammable, poisionous and explosive, are often used and stored in the CIP. Serious consequences could be caused by the accidental release of these chemical products. Therefore, environmental risks in the CIP have become one of the major problems that need to be solved. The following issues are the key concerns of CIP administration:(1) To ensure the production safety, how to objectively and effectively evaluate and manage the risk of enterprise in the CIP?(2) To decrease the losses and harmful effects of major accidents, how to implement land-use planning reasonably and establish appropriate safety distance? It is important to study the assessment and management of CIP on the basis of environmental risk. The present work provided a new theoretical framework and method for the risk assessment and management of CIP.
In the current work, we reviewed the development of environmental risk assessment in different levels and the development history of environmental risk assessment. The basic theory of risk assessment was introduced. Based on the literature work, some problems were found in the domestic research of environmental risk assessment of CIP.
Compared with the international criteria, the current domestic criteria for chemical accident were found to be irrational due to some limitations. By analyzing the background, significance and applicable conditions of the international criteria, we provided proposed standard of environmental accidental risk assessment of CIP.
In the present work, Monte Carlo analysis method was used to solve the uncertainty of parameters. By combining the consequence based approach and the Monte Carlo analysis, we provided a new method to determine the safety distance of a chemical industrial park.
According to the environmental risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks based on the inherent risk of the source and effectiveness of the prevention, control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. Catastrophe progression method was applied to assess the risk of enterprises in CIP. A comprehensive risk assessment method was then proposed based on catastrophe theory. The comprehensive evaluation index was divided into five levels according to the principle of equal distribution function in order to determine the comprehensive risk level of enterprises in CIP.
Standard of accidental environmental risk assessment, safety distance determination method, and comprehensive risk assessment index system and method proposed in this dissertation were utilized in practice. The Songmu Island CIP was taken as an example.
Our work provides useful information for the administrator to make decision in risk management. Furthermore, our research is helpful for the government and chemical industrial park to plan the land-use. These factors are essential for the safeguard of the public health and property, protection of the environmental resources, and promotion of the sustainable development of chemical industry park.
本论文介绍了国内外环境风险评价的发展历程及不同层次的环境风险评价的研究进展,总结出我国化工园区环境风险评价的现状及存在的问题,确定了本论文的主要研究内容、技术路线和研究目的。
通过对国内外风险评价标准体系研究的分析,指出国内现有风险标准闽值用于短期急性接触空气浓度标准值的的缺陷和不足。通过对比分析国际上通用标准值的出台背景和意义、适用条件以及应用实例,提出了我国化工行业突发性环境污染事件环境风险评价的建议标准。
引入蒙特卡罗分析方法,解决模型概率参数设定的不确定性问题,通过蒙特卡洛分析方法与风险距离计算方法的有效整合,初步建立化工园区选址风险防护距离的计算方法。
根据环境风险系统理论,结合化工行业的特点,构建基于风险源固有风险、防控机制有效性、受体易损性的化工园区企业综合风险评估指标体系。引入突变评级法评价环境风险综合水平,提出基于突变理论的化工企业环境风险综合评价方法。根据平等分布函数原理,将综合评价指标划分为5个等级水平,以判别化工园区企业的综合风险水平。
以大连市松木岛化工园区为例,对所提出的建议标准和建立的安全距离计算方法、综合风险评价指标体系及评价方法进行了实例应用。
本课题的研究为化工园区的管理者提供了进行科学决策及管理的依据,有助于各级政府及化工园区开展安全和环境规划,保障人民群众的生命财产安全,保护环境资源,促进园区的可持续发展。
The construction of the chemical industrial park (CIP) had been a major driving force of the chemical industry both at home and abroad. However, dangerous chemical products, which are flammable, poisionous and explosive, are often used and stored in the CIP. Serious consequences could be caused by the accidental release of these chemical products. Therefore, environmental risks in the CIP have become one of the major problems that need to be solved. The following issues are the key concerns of CIP administration:(1) To ensure the production safety, how to objectively and effectively evaluate and manage the risk of enterprise in the CIP?(2) To decrease the losses and harmful effects of major accidents, how to implement land-use planning reasonably and establish appropriate safety distance? It is important to study the assessment and management of CIP on the basis of environmental risk. The present work provided a new theoretical framework and method for the risk assessment and management of CIP.
In the current work, we reviewed the development of environmental risk assessment in different levels and the development history of environmental risk assessment. The basic theory of risk assessment was introduced. Based on the literature work, some problems were found in the domestic research of environmental risk assessment of CIP.
Compared with the international criteria, the current domestic criteria for chemical accident were found to be irrational due to some limitations. By analyzing the background, significance and applicable conditions of the international criteria, we provided proposed standard of environmental accidental risk assessment of CIP.
In the present work, Monte Carlo analysis method was used to solve the uncertainty of parameters. By combining the consequence based approach and the Monte Carlo analysis, we provided a new method to determine the safety distance of a chemical industrial park.
According to the environmental risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks based on the inherent risk of the source and effectiveness of the prevention, control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. Catastrophe progression method was applied to assess the risk of enterprises in CIP. A comprehensive risk assessment method was then proposed based on catastrophe theory. The comprehensive evaluation index was divided into five levels according to the principle of equal distribution function in order to determine the comprehensive risk level of enterprises in CIP.
Standard of accidental environmental risk assessment, safety distance determination method, and comprehensive risk assessment index system and method proposed in this dissertation were utilized in practice. The Songmu Island CIP was taken as an example.
Our work provides useful information for the administrator to make decision in risk management. Furthermore, our research is helpful for the government and chemical industrial park to plan the land-use. These factors are essential for the safeguard of the public health and property, protection of the environmental resources, and promotion of the sustainable development of chemical industry park.
引文
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