我国区域绿色技术创新效率的时空分异与仿真模拟
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摘要
绿色技术创新对促进区域经济的转型与调整,提升经济发展的质量具有积极的意义。本文围绕企业的主体作用、政府的主导作用、市场的催化作用,以实现波特假设为目标,从空间与时间维度建立绿色技术创新的动力模型与扩散模型,进行绿色技术创新的机制分析；再从绿色技术创新的内涵出发,围绕绿色经济效益维度、创新资源利用维度及生态效益维度,采用前沿效率参数模型,测度了区域绿色技术创新的维度效率,并通过客观赋权测度综合效率；运用空间统计方法,构建不同类型空间矩阵,考察区域绿色技术创新效率的维度属性及其空间影响路径,利用经典的空间模型及空间收敛模型,分析区域绿色技术创新维度效率及综合效率的空间地理特征及其演化趋势,以把握区域效率的基本地理规律特征；基于实证结果及机制分析,对绿色技术创新的形成与发展进行基础仿真及维度仿真,以此为实证分析的拓展与补充,对机制分析的深化。
本研究得到以下主要结论：
(1)绿色技术创新的动力机制与扩散机制
围绕着绿色技术创新的三个内在维度,从时空角度建立了绿色技术创新的动力模型与扩散模型。绿色技术创新的动力机制分析认为,企业利益基础是绿色技术创新的根本动力；政府作为主导因素,其制度安排政策取舍是企业绿色技术创新的主导力和基本推动力；市场是绿色技术创新得以实现的归宿,通过绿色认证与绿色市场的作用产生影响。绿色技术创新扩散机制是指在时间与空间维度下促使绿色创新技术影响力不断放大,取得更大的经济效益、环境效益和生态效益的各种要素相互联系与相互作用的方式以及关系的总和。绿色技术创新的运行扩散机制的分析,彰显了绿色技术创新效率在区域层面的价值机理。
(2)绿色技术创新效率的维度属性及其区域特征
绿色技术创新效率的三个维度分析表明：绿色经济的发展有利于技术进步与人文精神的复归相融合,逐步消除“科技异化”；区域技术创新能力的发挥受到特定区域创新环境与创新资源的制约,这也影响着企业技术创新的取向与范围；生态足迹对社会影响的滞后性使得因果关系变得模糊,导致了生态足迹的隐蔽性及累积叠加性。只有强调对资源的循环利用,降低环境的承受压力,才能使整个自然生态系统维持平衡发展。
绿色GDP内部差异分析表明,西部分化特征最为明显,中部差异与波动最小；北京作为研发机构科技人员投入以及政府经费投入最大的地区,是政策指向形成全国研发中心；以市场作用形成的研发中心主要是经济规模最大的几个东部省份以及社会经济发达的上海。区域生态足迹呈现东中西部递减的特征,各省区市生态足迹占用差异有逐年增大的趋势；社会经济高度发达,人口密集的大都市,人均生态足迹较大；而中西部部分资源性省区以较大的生态代价追求经济快速发展,也导致较大的人均生态足迹。
(3)区域绿色技术创新效率地理空间特征
技术外溢对区域的影响呈东、中、西递减的格局。无论是以技术外溢的赫芬达尔指数还是基尼系数考察,省域技术外溢的集聚度都呈上升的趋势,且对区域绿色技术创新效率具有显著影响；分别以ROOK邻近矩阵、距离矩阵、吸引力矩阵三种形式对SLM与SEM的ML估计对比表明,吸引力矩阵考虑了相邻地区间的异质性,而非简单把毗邻地区同质对待,而具备更优的估计结果。省域间绿色技术创新效率存在着正的空间相关,这种空间分布表明效率的空间聚集；对外贸易对绿色技术创新效率不显著,但与之有创新互动地区的进出口却对考察地具有统计上显著的正的影响,表明区域间的竞争激励效应有利于绿色技术创新效率的提高；外商直接投资无论是与考察地有创新往来地区W.FDI,还是本地的FDI,不仅统计上都显著,且都对考察地绿色技术创新效率具有正的影响；人力资本与邻接地人力资本存在着零和效应,人力资本从本地流向外地会导致绿色技术创新效率的降低,反之则对本地区绿色创新效率具有较大的促进作用。
(4)区域绿色技术创新效率空间演化特征
三个维度效率的空间收敛性分析表明：绿色技术效率的时间趋势参数η统计上并不显著,各省级单位绿色技术效率整体上的稳定性,并无明显随时间变化的特征；第一阶段研发效率不存在与空间地理位置相联系的赶超现象；第二阶段创新成果转化效率存在空间收敛现象；由两阶段综合得到的创新资源利用效率也存在着效率追赶现象；全国生态效率水平有待提高,发展的差异程度使得生态效率的差异程度加大,这使得生态效率并无明显的空间收敛特征。由三个维度效率客观赋权得到的绿色技术创新效率,在三种空间权重矩阵下都不存在空间β绝对收敛特征。
绿色技术创新效率的条件收敛性分析表明：以结构变量(R&D经费投入、人力资本密度等)以及条件变量(技术溢出、环境治理力度、经济发展水平、FDI等)为控制变量,在ROOK矩阵形式下的SLM在统计上各主要指标相对显著,因而是优选的模型。空间技术外溢对效率收敛性的影响较大,而R&D经费投入对省域绿色技术创新效率的影响相对较小,在控制R&D经费投入与空间技术外溢指标条件下,各省市(区)绿色技术创新效率将以4.87%的速度收敛。
绿色技术创新效率的俱乐部收敛考察表明：对初始效率水平较高的组,空间效应显著存在,但不存在β绝对收敛,相反,效率水平差异有加大的趋势；对效率水平较低的组,空间效应统计上并不十分显著,但存在β绝对收敛,统计上支持SLM模型的存在。也即,我国绿色技术创新效率表现出在低水平上收敛的趋势,在绿色创新效率水平较高的聚集地区,差异程度有加大的特征。
(5)基于NetLogo平台的仿真模拟
仿真模拟的维度分析表明,技术溢出虽然对增加区域绿色收益有明显的促进作用,但加强对技术创新知识产权保护,鼓励更多的原始创新显然也是政策不容忽视的问题；绿色创新资源利用效率具有相对稳定性：只有通过一定时间的积累,提升技术知识储量以及对技术知识的吸收能力,才能实现更多的绿色创新产出；只有持续不断地进行绿色创新技术的开发、引进,促进更新的绿色技术发展,才能确保将生态资源消耗控制在维持其自身平衡的阈值内。
以下三点是本文创新与贡献：①针对绿色技术创新效率的测度困难,本文从绿色技术创新的维度特征出发,测定维度效率,并通过客观赋权得到绿色技术创新综合效率,这是对技术创新效率评价方法的有益探索。②仅以地理邻接矩阵进行空间统计分析具有较大的局限性。本文以ROOK邻接矩阵为基础,进一步构建距离矩阵及与经济发展水平相联系的吸引力矩阵进行空间模型的对比分析,以测算出的技术溢出面板数据为配合,进行绿色技术创新效率空间影响路径的考察,这是对空间模型分析的积极拓展。③围绕绿色技术创新的维度特征,以机制分析为基础,以实证分析为主体,以仿真分析为拓展与补充,把三种有效结合。对维度效率测度,维度效率空间特征与演化,维度效率仿真进行有机结合分析,是对传统效率分析的深化。
Green technology innovation has a positive meaning to promote regional economic restructuring and adjustment and to improve the quality of economic development. Focusing on the main role of enterprises, the leading role of government and the catalytic role of the market, aim at the Porter Hypothesis, the author created the dynamic model and the diffusion model for green technology innovation from the space and time dimension to make the mechanism analysis of green technology innovation; On the base of the meaning of green technology innovation, the author measured the regional dimension efficiency of green technology innovation around the three dimensions including green economic, the use of innovative resource and eco-efficient with the parameter frontier model of efficiency, and got the integrate green technology innovation efficiency through objective weight. With using spatial statistical methods, he constructed different types of space matrix to study the regional dimension attributes of green technological innovation efficiency and its spatial affect path. After that, he analyzed the geospatial characteristics and evolution of trends of the regional green technology innovation efficiency with the classical spatial model and spatial convergence model so as to get the basic geographical law and trait of the regional efficiency. Finally, on the base of empirical results, the author made the basic simulation and the dimension simulation about the green technology innovation formation and development to expand and supplement the empirical analysis.
The main conclusions of this study are the following:
(1)The dynamic mechanism&diffusion mechanism of green technology innovation
The green technology innovation dynamic model&diffusion model were established around three inner dimensions of green technology innovation and from the perspective of time and space. The dynamic mechanism analysis of green technology innovation show that the enterprise interests was the fundamental driving force of green technology innovation; the government as the dominant factor, his institutional arrangement and orientation was the leading and the basic driving force of green technology innovation; the market was the ultimate goal of green technology innovation and made the influence through the green certification and the role of the green market. The operating and diffusion mechanism of green technology innovation was the sum of the style and interaction of various elements which promoted green technology innovation to enlarge its influence to achieve greater economic, environmental and ecological benefits on the dimension of time and space. The analysis of the operating and diffusion mechanism of green technology innovation demonstrated the efficiency of green technology innovation mechanism value at the regional level.
(2)The dimension attributes and its regional characteristics of green technology innovation
Three dimension analysis of green technology innovation efficiency show that green economic development was conducive to technological progress and humanism reversion, gradually eliminate the "technological alienation", thus promoting the development of green technology innovation. The ability of regional technology innovation was subject to specific regional innovation environment and innovation resource, which also affectted the orientation and scope of technological innovation. The lag influence of ecological footprint makes causality become blurred, which lead to the hidden nature and cumulative superposition of ecological footprint. On condition of the rational use of resources, especially non-renewable resources, emphasis on recycling of resources and reduce environmental pressure, the whole ecosystem might maintain a balance development.
Internal variance analysis of green GDP showed that the western differentiation was the most obvious, green GDP difference of the central had minimal fluctuation. As the largest region concerning staff input of science and technology R&D institutions, as well as government funding input, Beijing was a national research center because of policy pointing, The research and development center depending on market forces were mainly several eastern provinces which had the more large economy scale as well as the most socio-economic developed Shanghai. Regional ecological footprints show decreasing characteristic from east to west. The difference of ecological footprint occupancy had an increasing trend on dynamic perspective. The per person ecological footprint were larger in the place where social economy highly developed, or densely populated metropolis, while some of the central and western provinces who depending most on nature resources, in pursuit of a rapid economic development, also lead to a larger per person ecological footprint.
(3)Regional geospatial feature of green technology innovation efficiency
The extent of spillover effect on regions:the eastern>Central>Western. Whether on the term of Herfindahl index of technology spillovers or on term of the Gini coefficient, provincial agglomeration degree of technology spillovers was on the increase. Technology spillovers had significant influence on regional green technology innovation efficiency. The estimation of SLM and SEM respectively on the form of rook adjacent matrix, distance matrix, attractiveness matrix show that attractiveness matrix takes into account the heterogeneity among adjacent areas, rather than simply treat the areas adjacent to homogeneity, and have a better estimation result. Spatial lag coefficient was not only positive, but also statistically significant, which directly verify the spatial aggregation of the efficiency. Local import and export had not significant influence on green technology innovation efficiency, but the region of innovative interaction had a statistically significant positive effect,which indicated that the inter-regional competition and incentive effects was in favor of green technology innovation efficiency; Foreign direct investment,either the innovative cooperation regions, or local FDI, not only statistically significant, but also had positive effect on the influence of green technology innovation efficiency; Human capital and human capital of adjacent had the effects of zero-sum, The flow of human capital from the local field efficiency would lead to the reduction of green technology innovation, On the contrary green innovation efficiency in the region would be promoting.
(4)The spatial evolution of regional green technology innovation efficiency
The analysis of spatial convergence of three dimensional efficiency show that:the parameters of the time trend of the green technology efficiency was not statistically significant, which mean the stability of the provincial green technologies efficiency there was no significant change as time passed. The overtake phenomenon of R&D efficiency on the first phase did not appear. The efficiency on the second stage were different, which show the existence of the phenomenon of spatial convergence; The integrated efficiency of innovation resource obtained by two stage also show the existence of the catching up phenomenon of latecomer areas of the efficiency which was linked with geographical proximity. The national eco-efficiency needs to be improved. The difference extent in eco-efficiency development increased. The eco-efficiency had no obvious spatial convergence characteristics. Green technology innovation efficiency got by the three dimensions with objective weighted considering three spatial weights matrix did not show the absolute convergence characteristics of space.
The conditional convergence analysis of green technology innovation efficiency with the control variables taking care of the structural variables (R&D funding, human capital density) and condition variables(technology spillovers, environmental controlling, and economic development level, FDI, etc), show that the SLM with use of the ROOK matrix form was statistically significant, which was the preferred model. Space technology spillovers had relatively significant effect on efficiency convergence, while the effect of R&D relatively small. In the control R&D funding and space technology spillover index conditions, provincial Green Technology Innovation efficiency rate of convergence would be4.87%.
The club convergence investigation of regional green technology innovation efficiency showed that:the higher level of initial efficiency group existed a significant spatial effect, but there was no absolutely convergent; the differences levels of efficiency tended to increase; In contrast, for the lower levels on efficiency group, spatial effect was not statistically significant, but there exist absolutely convergent, statistically supported SLM models. That is, the green technology innovation efficiency trends converge at a low level, as for the gathering areas of high level green innovation efficiency, the difference degree increased.
(5)Simulation based on NetLogo platform
Dimension simulation analysis show that although technology spillovers had significantly promotted the increase of green earnings, but it could not be ignored to strengthen intellectual property protection of technological innovation, encourage more original innovation under policy consideration; the efficiency of innovation resource use is relatively stable. Only the continuous development and introduction of green innovation technology which promoted the new development of green technology could ensure the consumption of ecological resource within the threshold which maintaining its own balance.
本研究得到以下主要结论：
(1)绿色技术创新的动力机制与扩散机制
围绕着绿色技术创新的三个内在维度,从时空角度建立了绿色技术创新的动力模型与扩散模型。绿色技术创新的动力机制分析认为,企业利益基础是绿色技术创新的根本动力；政府作为主导因素,其制度安排政策取舍是企业绿色技术创新的主导力和基本推动力；市场是绿色技术创新得以实现的归宿,通过绿色认证与绿色市场的作用产生影响。绿色技术创新扩散机制是指在时间与空间维度下促使绿色创新技术影响力不断放大,取得更大的经济效益、环境效益和生态效益的各种要素相互联系与相互作用的方式以及关系的总和。绿色技术创新的运行扩散机制的分析,彰显了绿色技术创新效率在区域层面的价值机理。
(2)绿色技术创新效率的维度属性及其区域特征
绿色技术创新效率的三个维度分析表明：绿色经济的发展有利于技术进步与人文精神的复归相融合,逐步消除“科技异化”；区域技术创新能力的发挥受到特定区域创新环境与创新资源的制约,这也影响着企业技术创新的取向与范围；生态足迹对社会影响的滞后性使得因果关系变得模糊,导致了生态足迹的隐蔽性及累积叠加性。只有强调对资源的循环利用,降低环境的承受压力,才能使整个自然生态系统维持平衡发展。
绿色GDP内部差异分析表明,西部分化特征最为明显,中部差异与波动最小；北京作为研发机构科技人员投入以及政府经费投入最大的地区,是政策指向形成全国研发中心；以市场作用形成的研发中心主要是经济规模最大的几个东部省份以及社会经济发达的上海。区域生态足迹呈现东中西部递减的特征,各省区市生态足迹占用差异有逐年增大的趋势；社会经济高度发达,人口密集的大都市,人均生态足迹较大；而中西部部分资源性省区以较大的生态代价追求经济快速发展,也导致较大的人均生态足迹。
(3)区域绿色技术创新效率地理空间特征
技术外溢对区域的影响呈东、中、西递减的格局。无论是以技术外溢的赫芬达尔指数还是基尼系数考察,省域技术外溢的集聚度都呈上升的趋势,且对区域绿色技术创新效率具有显著影响；分别以ROOK邻近矩阵、距离矩阵、吸引力矩阵三种形式对SLM与SEM的ML估计对比表明,吸引力矩阵考虑了相邻地区间的异质性,而非简单把毗邻地区同质对待,而具备更优的估计结果。省域间绿色技术创新效率存在着正的空间相关,这种空间分布表明效率的空间聚集；对外贸易对绿色技术创新效率不显著,但与之有创新互动地区的进出口却对考察地具有统计上显著的正的影响,表明区域间的竞争激励效应有利于绿色技术创新效率的提高；外商直接投资无论是与考察地有创新往来地区W.FDI,还是本地的FDI,不仅统计上都显著,且都对考察地绿色技术创新效率具有正的影响；人力资本与邻接地人力资本存在着零和效应,人力资本从本地流向外地会导致绿色技术创新效率的降低,反之则对本地区绿色创新效率具有较大的促进作用。
(4)区域绿色技术创新效率空间演化特征
三个维度效率的空间收敛性分析表明：绿色技术效率的时间趋势参数η统计上并不显著,各省级单位绿色技术效率整体上的稳定性,并无明显随时间变化的特征；第一阶段研发效率不存在与空间地理位置相联系的赶超现象；第二阶段创新成果转化效率存在空间收敛现象；由两阶段综合得到的创新资源利用效率也存在着效率追赶现象；全国生态效率水平有待提高,发展的差异程度使得生态效率的差异程度加大,这使得生态效率并无明显的空间收敛特征。由三个维度效率客观赋权得到的绿色技术创新效率,在三种空间权重矩阵下都不存在空间β绝对收敛特征。
绿色技术创新效率的条件收敛性分析表明：以结构变量(R&D经费投入、人力资本密度等)以及条件变量(技术溢出、环境治理力度、经济发展水平、FDI等)为控制变量,在ROOK矩阵形式下的SLM在统计上各主要指标相对显著,因而是优选的模型。空间技术外溢对效率收敛性的影响较大,而R&D经费投入对省域绿色技术创新效率的影响相对较小,在控制R&D经费投入与空间技术外溢指标条件下,各省市(区)绿色技术创新效率将以4.87%的速度收敛。
绿色技术创新效率的俱乐部收敛考察表明：对初始效率水平较高的组,空间效应显著存在,但不存在β绝对收敛,相反,效率水平差异有加大的趋势；对效率水平较低的组,空间效应统计上并不十分显著,但存在β绝对收敛,统计上支持SLM模型的存在。也即,我国绿色技术创新效率表现出在低水平上收敛的趋势,在绿色创新效率水平较高的聚集地区,差异程度有加大的特征。
(5)基于NetLogo平台的仿真模拟
仿真模拟的维度分析表明,技术溢出虽然对增加区域绿色收益有明显的促进作用,但加强对技术创新知识产权保护,鼓励更多的原始创新显然也是政策不容忽视的问题；绿色创新资源利用效率具有相对稳定性：只有通过一定时间的积累,提升技术知识储量以及对技术知识的吸收能力,才能实现更多的绿色创新产出；只有持续不断地进行绿色创新技术的开发、引进,促进更新的绿色技术发展,才能确保将生态资源消耗控制在维持其自身平衡的阈值内。
以下三点是本文创新与贡献：①针对绿色技术创新效率的测度困难,本文从绿色技术创新的维度特征出发,测定维度效率,并通过客观赋权得到绿色技术创新综合效率,这是对技术创新效率评价方法的有益探索。②仅以地理邻接矩阵进行空间统计分析具有较大的局限性。本文以ROOK邻接矩阵为基础,进一步构建距离矩阵及与经济发展水平相联系的吸引力矩阵进行空间模型的对比分析,以测算出的技术溢出面板数据为配合,进行绿色技术创新效率空间影响路径的考察,这是对空间模型分析的积极拓展。③围绕绿色技术创新的维度特征,以机制分析为基础,以实证分析为主体,以仿真分析为拓展与补充,把三种有效结合。对维度效率测度,维度效率空间特征与演化,维度效率仿真进行有机结合分析,是对传统效率分析的深化。
Green technology innovation has a positive meaning to promote regional economic restructuring and adjustment and to improve the quality of economic development. Focusing on the main role of enterprises, the leading role of government and the catalytic role of the market, aim at the Porter Hypothesis, the author created the dynamic model and the diffusion model for green technology innovation from the space and time dimension to make the mechanism analysis of green technology innovation; On the base of the meaning of green technology innovation, the author measured the regional dimension efficiency of green technology innovation around the three dimensions including green economic, the use of innovative resource and eco-efficient with the parameter frontier model of efficiency, and got the integrate green technology innovation efficiency through objective weight. With using spatial statistical methods, he constructed different types of space matrix to study the regional dimension attributes of green technological innovation efficiency and its spatial affect path. After that, he analyzed the geospatial characteristics and evolution of trends of the regional green technology innovation efficiency with the classical spatial model and spatial convergence model so as to get the basic geographical law and trait of the regional efficiency. Finally, on the base of empirical results, the author made the basic simulation and the dimension simulation about the green technology innovation formation and development to expand and supplement the empirical analysis.
The main conclusions of this study are the following:
(1)The dynamic mechanism&diffusion mechanism of green technology innovation
The green technology innovation dynamic model&diffusion model were established around three inner dimensions of green technology innovation and from the perspective of time and space. The dynamic mechanism analysis of green technology innovation show that the enterprise interests was the fundamental driving force of green technology innovation; the government as the dominant factor, his institutional arrangement and orientation was the leading and the basic driving force of green technology innovation; the market was the ultimate goal of green technology innovation and made the influence through the green certification and the role of the green market. The operating and diffusion mechanism of green technology innovation was the sum of the style and interaction of various elements which promoted green technology innovation to enlarge its influence to achieve greater economic, environmental and ecological benefits on the dimension of time and space. The analysis of the operating and diffusion mechanism of green technology innovation demonstrated the efficiency of green technology innovation mechanism value at the regional level.
(2)The dimension attributes and its regional characteristics of green technology innovation
Three dimension analysis of green technology innovation efficiency show that green economic development was conducive to technological progress and humanism reversion, gradually eliminate the "technological alienation", thus promoting the development of green technology innovation. The ability of regional technology innovation was subject to specific regional innovation environment and innovation resource, which also affectted the orientation and scope of technological innovation. The lag influence of ecological footprint makes causality become blurred, which lead to the hidden nature and cumulative superposition of ecological footprint. On condition of the rational use of resources, especially non-renewable resources, emphasis on recycling of resources and reduce environmental pressure, the whole ecosystem might maintain a balance development.
Internal variance analysis of green GDP showed that the western differentiation was the most obvious, green GDP difference of the central had minimal fluctuation. As the largest region concerning staff input of science and technology R&D institutions, as well as government funding input, Beijing was a national research center because of policy pointing, The research and development center depending on market forces were mainly several eastern provinces which had the more large economy scale as well as the most socio-economic developed Shanghai. Regional ecological footprints show decreasing characteristic from east to west. The difference of ecological footprint occupancy had an increasing trend on dynamic perspective. The per person ecological footprint were larger in the place where social economy highly developed, or densely populated metropolis, while some of the central and western provinces who depending most on nature resources, in pursuit of a rapid economic development, also lead to a larger per person ecological footprint.
(3)Regional geospatial feature of green technology innovation efficiency
The extent of spillover effect on regions:the eastern>Central>Western. Whether on the term of Herfindahl index of technology spillovers or on term of the Gini coefficient, provincial agglomeration degree of technology spillovers was on the increase. Technology spillovers had significant influence on regional green technology innovation efficiency. The estimation of SLM and SEM respectively on the form of rook adjacent matrix, distance matrix, attractiveness matrix show that attractiveness matrix takes into account the heterogeneity among adjacent areas, rather than simply treat the areas adjacent to homogeneity, and have a better estimation result. Spatial lag coefficient was not only positive, but also statistically significant, which directly verify the spatial aggregation of the efficiency. Local import and export had not significant influence on green technology innovation efficiency, but the region of innovative interaction had a statistically significant positive effect,which indicated that the inter-regional competition and incentive effects was in favor of green technology innovation efficiency; Foreign direct investment,either the innovative cooperation regions, or local FDI, not only statistically significant, but also had positive effect on the influence of green technology innovation efficiency; Human capital and human capital of adjacent had the effects of zero-sum, The flow of human capital from the local field efficiency would lead to the reduction of green technology innovation, On the contrary green innovation efficiency in the region would be promoting.
(4)The spatial evolution of regional green technology innovation efficiency
The analysis of spatial convergence of three dimensional efficiency show that:the parameters of the time trend of the green technology efficiency was not statistically significant, which mean the stability of the provincial green technologies efficiency there was no significant change as time passed. The overtake phenomenon of R&D efficiency on the first phase did not appear. The efficiency on the second stage were different, which show the existence of the phenomenon of spatial convergence; The integrated efficiency of innovation resource obtained by two stage also show the existence of the catching up phenomenon of latecomer areas of the efficiency which was linked with geographical proximity. The national eco-efficiency needs to be improved. The difference extent in eco-efficiency development increased. The eco-efficiency had no obvious spatial convergence characteristics. Green technology innovation efficiency got by the three dimensions with objective weighted considering three spatial weights matrix did not show the absolute convergence characteristics of space.
The conditional convergence analysis of green technology innovation efficiency with the control variables taking care of the structural variables (R&D funding, human capital density) and condition variables(technology spillovers, environmental controlling, and economic development level, FDI, etc), show that the SLM with use of the ROOK matrix form was statistically significant, which was the preferred model. Space technology spillovers had relatively significant effect on efficiency convergence, while the effect of R&D relatively small. In the control R&D funding and space technology spillover index conditions, provincial Green Technology Innovation efficiency rate of convergence would be4.87%.
The club convergence investigation of regional green technology innovation efficiency showed that:the higher level of initial efficiency group existed a significant spatial effect, but there was no absolutely convergent; the differences levels of efficiency tended to increase; In contrast, for the lower levels on efficiency group, spatial effect was not statistically significant, but there exist absolutely convergent, statistically supported SLM models. That is, the green technology innovation efficiency trends converge at a low level, as for the gathering areas of high level green innovation efficiency, the difference degree increased.
(5)Simulation based on NetLogo platform
Dimension simulation analysis show that although technology spillovers had significantly promotted the increase of green earnings, but it could not be ignored to strengthen intellectual property protection of technological innovation, encourage more original innovation under policy consideration; the efficiency of innovation resource use is relatively stable. Only the continuous development and introduction of green innovation technology which promoted the new development of green technology could ensure the consumption of ecological resource within the threshold which maintaining its own balance.
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