我国R&D投入绩效评价与目标强度研究
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摘要
世界各国之间的竞争已从经济、政治、国防等方面的竞争转移到作为国家核心竞争力坚强后盾的科技领域的竞争。R&D活动已作为科技创新的主要活动之一,是衡量一个国家科技活动规模、评价国家科技实力和创新能力的重要指标。R&D投入是推动技术创新和技术进步的源泉,是促进经济增长的主要内在动力,也是推动我国经济转型的重要因素。自改革开放以来,我国R&D投入总量与强度都有了很大提高,促进了我国科技创新活动的开展,为我国社会经济持续健康发展奠定了重要基础。目前在我国科技、经济资源有限的情况下,深入、系统地对R&D投入绩效水平进行理论分析和实证研究,对于进一步检验内生增长理论、改善科技资源配置、加强R&D投入预算管理、提高R&D活动效率,提高政府决策部门对R&D活动的引导和控制能力,不断增强国际竞争力,加快我国经济增长方式转变等方面具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。对我国未来R&D经费总量及其与GDP比值进行科学的预测是制定科技发展规划的重要依据。
本文以国际R&D经验与创新型国家战略为基础,主要采用协整理论与方法、随机前沿函数分析方法(SFA)及多变量灰色模型等方法对我国R&D投入与经济增长关系、R&D投入绩效水平及未来R&D投入目标强度进行深入研究。论文主要内容包括四个方面：第一,对国内外R&D投入方面的相关文献进行梳理、比较和归纳,总结部分发达国家R&D投入基本规律；第二,从宏观角度分析了R&D投入的多元溢出效应,以便更加全面、准确地衡量R&D投入绩效；第三,从微观角度进行实证分析,主要采用协整理论与方法对我国近30年的R&D投入与经济增长的关系进行了检验,即从经济增长角度解释我国近年来的R&D投入绩效水平,论文采用SFA方法对我国2002-2008年区域R&D投入效率水平进行了测度；第四,根据国外R&D活动经验和我国R&D投入现状,采用多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)对我国未来10年的R&D投入总量与目标强度进行了科学预测,并提出提高R&D投入绩效水平与实现目标强度的对策和建议,为有关决策部门提供借鉴。
本文创新之处体现以下四个方面：
第一,丰富和发展了R&D内生增长模型。本文以新熊彼特主义(Neo～Sebum Petertan)内生增长理论为基础,将人力资本与政府政策变量引入模型中,进一步丰富和发展了R&D内生增长模型,更好地解释人力资本、政府政策等变量因素对经济增长、R&D投入绩效水平和R&D目标强度实现的影响。
第二,验证了在R&D活动过程中存在多元溢出效应,且多元溢出效应主要受空间地理、知识领域与知识接受者等因素的影响。主要从经济外部性角度对R&D溢出效应对不同地区、不同部门、不同产业之间所产生的影响进行了实证分析,总结影响R&D溢出效应的相关因素。通过对政府公共R&D溢出效应的具体分析,发现政府R&D投入所产生的外部知识存量对当前的专利申请数、新产品销售收入有显著的正的溢出效应,科学家和工程师的数量对专利产出、新产品销售收入有显著的正效应。
第三,通过实证分析发现大量的R&D经费投入与积累来实现我国经济增长的重要因素之一,而人力资本对经济增长没有起到明显的促进作用；全国R&D效率总体呈现逐步提高的态势,但效率的提高主要依靠R&D规模的扩大,相对发达国家来说,纯技术效率水平不高,未来我国在R&D效率的提高上存在着很大的空间。为确保我国经济持续稳定增长,应把经济增长模式从依靠物质资本投入的支撑转移到依靠科技进步、提高经济增长质量和效率的支撑上来。
第四,测算了我国未来10年左右的R&D投入总量及目标强度。根据部分发达国家R&D经验和我国《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020年)》发展战略规划,采用多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)对我国未来R&D投入总量及目标强度进行了科学预测,得出了到2020年我国R&D投入总量和目标强度分别为11001.2亿元、2.50%的结论,提出提高R&D投入绩效、实现未来R&D投入目标强度的协调机制。
Nowadays the competition in the world is changing from the economy, politics and national defense and so on to the field of science and technology that can strengthen national core competency. As one of the main innovation activity of science and technology, the R& D activity has already been the important index that measures the scale of a national science and technology and evaluates national innovation ability. The R&D input can push technique innovation and progress and promote the economy growth and transformation. The total and the intensity of our country's R&D input are more and more increasing since the reformation and opening, and these lay important foundation for the development of society and economy.With the limited science and technology and economic resources, Researching on the performance evaluation of our country's R&D input is important to improve science and technology resources allocation, to strengthen the R& D budget management and raise R& D activity efficiency. The government can guide and control R&D activity effectively. The forecast to the total of R&D input and the target intensity is the basis of laying down science and technology developing plan.
On the basis of international experience and the strategy of building innovation nation, the paper analyses the relationship between the R&D input and economic growth, evaluate the performance of R&D input and forecasts the target intensity in R&D input with the way of co-integration, SFA(Stochastic Frontier Analysis) and MGM(l,n).The paper is consisted of four part mainly. First, the paper analyses a lot of literature about R&D input, and summarizes the law of science and technology policy; second, in order to evaluate the performance of R&D input totally and accurately, the multi- spillovers of R&D input are considered in the paper; third, the paper examines the relationship between the R&D input and economic growth about thirty years by co-integration, and estimates the efficiency of R&D input in nation wild from 2002 to 2008 in SFA; Fourth, the total and the intensity of R&D input 10 years later are forecasted scientific through the model of MGM(l,n).The some countermeasures are put forward to improve the efficiency of R&D input and to realize the target intensity in the future.
The research contributes to literatures as following:
First, this research enrichs and develops the R&D endogenous growth model that using Neo～Sebum Petertan model in consideration of the factor of government's policy and human captical.
Second, this research tests the multi-spillovers that is influenced by spatial factors, knowledge field and the acceptance of knowledge in R&D activity. Empirical study shows that the external knowledge total of enterprise and government's R&D input produce notable advanced action to new product's gross sales and patent's applying gross.
Third, empirical study shows that the economic growth deponds on much R&D input mainly, but the effectiveness of human capital is not obvious.The efficiency of R&D input is more and more raising in our country, but the pure technique efficiency level is not high.The space for raising the efficiency of R&D input is much more in future.
Fourth, this research forecasts and calculates the total of R&D input and the target intensity until 2020 by MGM (1, n) on base of international experience in R&D activities and the strategy of building innovation nation.The paper puts forward the countmeasures to raise the efficiency of R&D input and to realize the target intensity.
本文以国际R&D经验与创新型国家战略为基础,主要采用协整理论与方法、随机前沿函数分析方法(SFA)及多变量灰色模型等方法对我国R&D投入与经济增长关系、R&D投入绩效水平及未来R&D投入目标强度进行深入研究。论文主要内容包括四个方面：第一,对国内外R&D投入方面的相关文献进行梳理、比较和归纳,总结部分发达国家R&D投入基本规律；第二,从宏观角度分析了R&D投入的多元溢出效应,以便更加全面、准确地衡量R&D投入绩效；第三,从微观角度进行实证分析,主要采用协整理论与方法对我国近30年的R&D投入与经济增长的关系进行了检验,即从经济增长角度解释我国近年来的R&D投入绩效水平,论文采用SFA方法对我国2002-2008年区域R&D投入效率水平进行了测度；第四,根据国外R&D活动经验和我国R&D投入现状,采用多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)对我国未来10年的R&D投入总量与目标强度进行了科学预测,并提出提高R&D投入绩效水平与实现目标强度的对策和建议,为有关决策部门提供借鉴。
本文创新之处体现以下四个方面：
第一,丰富和发展了R&D内生增长模型。本文以新熊彼特主义(Neo～Sebum Petertan)内生增长理论为基础,将人力资本与政府政策变量引入模型中,进一步丰富和发展了R&D内生增长模型,更好地解释人力资本、政府政策等变量因素对经济增长、R&D投入绩效水平和R&D目标强度实现的影响。
第二,验证了在R&D活动过程中存在多元溢出效应,且多元溢出效应主要受空间地理、知识领域与知识接受者等因素的影响。主要从经济外部性角度对R&D溢出效应对不同地区、不同部门、不同产业之间所产生的影响进行了实证分析,总结影响R&D溢出效应的相关因素。通过对政府公共R&D溢出效应的具体分析,发现政府R&D投入所产生的外部知识存量对当前的专利申请数、新产品销售收入有显著的正的溢出效应,科学家和工程师的数量对专利产出、新产品销售收入有显著的正效应。
第三,通过实证分析发现大量的R&D经费投入与积累来实现我国经济增长的重要因素之一,而人力资本对经济增长没有起到明显的促进作用；全国R&D效率总体呈现逐步提高的态势,但效率的提高主要依靠R&D规模的扩大,相对发达国家来说,纯技术效率水平不高,未来我国在R&D效率的提高上存在着很大的空间。为确保我国经济持续稳定增长,应把经济增长模式从依靠物质资本投入的支撑转移到依靠科技进步、提高经济增长质量和效率的支撑上来。
第四,测算了我国未来10年左右的R&D投入总量及目标强度。根据部分发达国家R&D经验和我国《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020年)》发展战略规划,采用多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)对我国未来R&D投入总量及目标强度进行了科学预测,得出了到2020年我国R&D投入总量和目标强度分别为11001.2亿元、2.50%的结论,提出提高R&D投入绩效、实现未来R&D投入目标强度的协调机制。
Nowadays the competition in the world is changing from the economy, politics and national defense and so on to the field of science and technology that can strengthen national core competency. As one of the main innovation activity of science and technology, the R& D activity has already been the important index that measures the scale of a national science and technology and evaluates national innovation ability. The R&D input can push technique innovation and progress and promote the economy growth and transformation. The total and the intensity of our country's R&D input are more and more increasing since the reformation and opening, and these lay important foundation for the development of society and economy.With the limited science and technology and economic resources, Researching on the performance evaluation of our country's R&D input is important to improve science and technology resources allocation, to strengthen the R& D budget management and raise R& D activity efficiency. The government can guide and control R&D activity effectively. The forecast to the total of R&D input and the target intensity is the basis of laying down science and technology developing plan.
On the basis of international experience and the strategy of building innovation nation, the paper analyses the relationship between the R&D input and economic growth, evaluate the performance of R&D input and forecasts the target intensity in R&D input with the way of co-integration, SFA(Stochastic Frontier Analysis) and MGM(l,n).The paper is consisted of four part mainly. First, the paper analyses a lot of literature about R&D input, and summarizes the law of science and technology policy; second, in order to evaluate the performance of R&D input totally and accurately, the multi- spillovers of R&D input are considered in the paper; third, the paper examines the relationship between the R&D input and economic growth about thirty years by co-integration, and estimates the efficiency of R&D input in nation wild from 2002 to 2008 in SFA; Fourth, the total and the intensity of R&D input 10 years later are forecasted scientific through the model of MGM(l,n).The some countermeasures are put forward to improve the efficiency of R&D input and to realize the target intensity in the future.
The research contributes to literatures as following:
First, this research enrichs and develops the R&D endogenous growth model that using Neo～Sebum Petertan model in consideration of the factor of government's policy and human captical.
Second, this research tests the multi-spillovers that is influenced by spatial factors, knowledge field and the acceptance of knowledge in R&D activity. Empirical study shows that the external knowledge total of enterprise and government's R&D input produce notable advanced action to new product's gross sales and patent's applying gross.
Third, empirical study shows that the economic growth deponds on much R&D input mainly, but the effectiveness of human capital is not obvious.The efficiency of R&D input is more and more raising in our country, but the pure technique efficiency level is not high.The space for raising the efficiency of R&D input is much more in future.
Fourth, this research forecasts and calculates the total of R&D input and the target intensity until 2020 by MGM (1, n) on base of international experience in R&D activities and the strategy of building innovation nation.The paper puts forward the countmeasures to raise the efficiency of R&D input and to realize the target intensity.
引文
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