固定资产投资对区域经济差异的影响研究
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摘要
中国经济在改革开放30多年来一直保持着高速增长,创造了一个发展奇迹。但是在GDP不断增长的同时,区域经济差异也表现的越来越明显。山东省作为全国的经济大省,也存在着经济快速发展的同时区域经济差异不断加大的问题。因此,如何有效地解决山东省区域经济差异不断加大的问题,实现经济均衡协调发展,对山东省今后经济的持续、快速、健康发展有重要意义。
在研究区域经济差异增大的对策之前,必须对引起区域经济差异的原因进行分析。投资,与消费、进出口贸易并称国民经济增长的三驾马车,对经济增长起着举足轻重的作用。作为投资中最为重要的固定资产投资,在对经济增长起着推动作用的同时,也成为区域经济差异加大的重要因素。
本文利用泰尔指数法和基尼系数法对山东省区域经济差异进行定量分析和研究。由定量分析可以得到,30年来山东省整体的区域经济差异呈不断加大趋势,在东部地区和西部地区的区域内差异是不断变小的,但在东西部地区之间的区域间差异不断变大。区域内差异对基尼系数的贡献率较小且呈平稳的下降趋势,而区域间差异对基尼系数的贡献率较大且呈上升趋势。
在对山东省的基尼系数、固定资产投资效率、投资增长速度进行单位根检验,确定最优滞后阶数后,构建向量自回归模型。通过对模型的回归,得出山东省东西部地区的固定资产投资效率差与基尼系数是负相关的；固定资产投资的增长速度差与基尼系数是正相关的。这说明,东西部地区的固定资产投资效率差加大使基尼系数减小,固定投资增长速度差加大使基尼系数增加。
由以上的计量结论,可以进一步分析固定资产投资对区域经济差异的影响机制,并进一步提出相关的政策建议,指导山东省固定资产投资战略,实现经济均衡发展。
China's economic reform and opening up has maintained rapid growth for30years that has created a development miracle. At the same time with the rapid growth of GDP, difference in regional economic performances increasingly evident. Shandong Province as the country's major economic province also has the problem of the rapid economic development and regional economic disparities continue to increase. Therefore, how to effectively solve the regional economic disparities of Shandong Province is important to achieve balanced economic coordinated development of sustained, rapid and healthy development of the future economy of Shandong Province.
Prior to study regional economic disparities increase countermeasures we must analyze the reasons that cause regional economic differences. Investment, consumption, import and export trade and said the Troika of the national economic growth, economic growth and plays an important role. As the most important investment in fixed assets investment, at the same time play a role in promoting economic growth has also become an important factor in regional economic differences increase.
In this paper, we use Theil index and Gini coefficient method for quantitative analysis and study of regional economic disparities in Shandong Province. As can be seen by our analysis, Shandong Province, eastern and western regions of the overall economic differences in the past30years was constantly increasing trend. The eastern and western regions of the differences within the region is becoming smaller, but the difference between the east and west regions is becoming bigger. Differences within the region of the contribution rate of the Gini coefficient is small and declining, while the inter-regional differences in the contribution rate of the Gini coefficient larger upward trend.
After unit root testing the Gini coefficient, the efficiency of investment in fixed assets, investment growth rate and determining the optimal lag order, construct a vector auto regression model. From regressing model, draw the conclusion that the correlation fixed asset investment efficiency of eastern and western regions of Shandong Province and the Gini coefficients is negative correlation; positive correlation between the Gini coefficients for the growth rate of investment in fixed assets. This shows that the fixed assets investment of eastern and western regions in poor efficiency increase that the Gini coefficient reduce, fixed investment growth rate to increase so that the Gini coefficient increased.
From the econometric analysis above, we can further analyze the mechanism of the impact of the investment in fixed assets of the regional economic disparities, and further make relevant policy recommendations, guidance Shandong Province, fixed asset investment strategy to achieve balanced economic development.
在研究区域经济差异增大的对策之前,必须对引起区域经济差异的原因进行分析。投资,与消费、进出口贸易并称国民经济增长的三驾马车,对经济增长起着举足轻重的作用。作为投资中最为重要的固定资产投资,在对经济增长起着推动作用的同时,也成为区域经济差异加大的重要因素。
本文利用泰尔指数法和基尼系数法对山东省区域经济差异进行定量分析和研究。由定量分析可以得到,30年来山东省整体的区域经济差异呈不断加大趋势,在东部地区和西部地区的区域内差异是不断变小的,但在东西部地区之间的区域间差异不断变大。区域内差异对基尼系数的贡献率较小且呈平稳的下降趋势,而区域间差异对基尼系数的贡献率较大且呈上升趋势。
在对山东省的基尼系数、固定资产投资效率、投资增长速度进行单位根检验,确定最优滞后阶数后,构建向量自回归模型。通过对模型的回归,得出山东省东西部地区的固定资产投资效率差与基尼系数是负相关的；固定资产投资的增长速度差与基尼系数是正相关的。这说明,东西部地区的固定资产投资效率差加大使基尼系数减小,固定投资增长速度差加大使基尼系数增加。
由以上的计量结论,可以进一步分析固定资产投资对区域经济差异的影响机制,并进一步提出相关的政策建议,指导山东省固定资产投资战略,实现经济均衡发展。
China's economic reform and opening up has maintained rapid growth for30years that has created a development miracle. At the same time with the rapid growth of GDP, difference in regional economic performances increasingly evident. Shandong Province as the country's major economic province also has the problem of the rapid economic development and regional economic disparities continue to increase. Therefore, how to effectively solve the regional economic disparities of Shandong Province is important to achieve balanced economic coordinated development of sustained, rapid and healthy development of the future economy of Shandong Province.
Prior to study regional economic disparities increase countermeasures we must analyze the reasons that cause regional economic differences. Investment, consumption, import and export trade and said the Troika of the national economic growth, economic growth and plays an important role. As the most important investment in fixed assets investment, at the same time play a role in promoting economic growth has also become an important factor in regional economic differences increase.
In this paper, we use Theil index and Gini coefficient method for quantitative analysis and study of regional economic disparities in Shandong Province. As can be seen by our analysis, Shandong Province, eastern and western regions of the overall economic differences in the past30years was constantly increasing trend. The eastern and western regions of the differences within the region is becoming smaller, but the difference between the east and west regions is becoming bigger. Differences within the region of the contribution rate of the Gini coefficient is small and declining, while the inter-regional differences in the contribution rate of the Gini coefficient larger upward trend.
After unit root testing the Gini coefficient, the efficiency of investment in fixed assets, investment growth rate and determining the optimal lag order, construct a vector auto regression model. From regressing model, draw the conclusion that the correlation fixed asset investment efficiency of eastern and western regions of Shandong Province and the Gini coefficients is negative correlation; positive correlation between the Gini coefficients for the growth rate of investment in fixed assets. This shows that the fixed assets investment of eastern and western regions in poor efficiency increase that the Gini coefficient reduce, fixed investment growth rate to increase so that the Gini coefficient increased.
From the econometric analysis above, we can further analyze the mechanism of the impact of the investment in fixed assets of the regional economic disparities, and further make relevant policy recommendations, guidance Shandong Province, fixed asset investment strategy to achieve balanced economic development.
引文
[1]Chen, Baizhu, and Yi Feng,2000, Determinants of Economic Growth in China: Private Enterprise, Education and Openness, China Economic Review,11 (1):1-15.
[2]Delong, J. B. and Summers, L. H.; Equipment investment and economic growth; Quarterly Journal of Economics; 1992(2):445-502.
[3]Dagum Camilo,1997a, A new approach to the decomposition of the Gini income inequality ratio, Empirical Econ.22,(4),515-531.
[4]Fleisher, Belton M. and Jian Chen,1997, The Coast-Noncoast Income Gap, Productivity, and Regional Economic Policy in ChinaO, Journal of Comparative Economics:25 (2),220-236.
[5]Lee, Jongchul.,1994, Regional Differences in the Impact of the Open Door Policy on Income Growth in China, Journal of Economic Development,19 (1): 215-34.
[6]Tsui K. Y.,1996, Economic reform and interprovincial inequalities in China, J. Develop. Econ.50,353-368.
[7]Wei Y. D.,1999, Regional inequality in ChinaO, Progress in Human Geography 23(1),49-59.
[8]Yang D. T.,2002, what has caused regional inequality in China, China Econ. Rev. 13,331-334.
[9]蔡昉,都阳.中国地区经济增长的趋同与差异—对西部开发战略的启示[J].《经济研究》,2000,(10).
[10]魏后凯.中国地区经济增长及其收敛性[J].中国工业经济,1997,(3).
[11]盖文启.我国东西部经济协调发展探析[J].经济地理,1997,17(2).
[12]刘金全,于惠春.我国固定资产投资和经济增长之间影响关系的实证分析[J].统计研究,2002,(1).
[13]李万茂.关于投资对经济增长贡献的计算方法应用简析[J].统计研究,1999,(5).
[14]刘金全,于惠春.我国固定资产投资与经济增长之间影响关系的实证分析 [J].统计研究,2002,(1)：26-29.
[15]杨明洪,孙继琼.中国地区差距时空演变特征的实证分析[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2006,(1).
[16]沈坤荣,马俊.中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究[J].经济研究,2002,(1)：33-39.
[17]王维通,徐晓鹰.关于山东省经济区域划分的思考[J].华东经济管理,2001,15(2)：9-10.
[18]盖文启.山东省东西部地区经济差异变动趋势探析[J].山东社会科学,1999(1).
[19]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].北京：商务印书馆,1972.
[20]大卫·李嘉图.政治经济学及税赋原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1976.
[21]罗伯特·M·索洛.经济增长因素分析[M].北京：商务印书馆,1991.
[22]李红松.固定资产投资与经济增长关系的地区差异比较[J].决策参考,2004,(5).
[23]田泽永,江可申.固定资产投资对经济增长贡献的比较研究—居于东、中、西部面板数据的分析[J].预测,2008,(1)：31-40.
[24]向家敏.中国固定资产投资对经济增长贡献的地区差异分析[D].重庆.重庆大学,2007.
[25]李红松.固定资产投资与经济增长关系的地区差异比较[J].生产力研究,2004,(5)：104-105.
[26]林毅夫、蔡防、李周,中国经济转型的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998,(10).
[27]陆大道,刘卫东.论我国区域发展与区域政策的地学基础[J].地理科学,2000,20(60)：487-493.
[28]吴殿廷.试论中国经济增长的南北差异[J].地理研究,2001,20(2)：238-243.
[29]覃成林.中国区域经济差异研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社,1997.
[30]杨开忠.中国区域经济差异变动研究[J].经济研究,1994,(12)：28-33.
[31]吴殿廷,试论中国经济增长的南北差异[J].地理研究,2001,20(2)：238 --246.
[32]魏后凯、刘楷等.中国地区发展：经济增长、制度变迁与地区差异[M].北京：经济管理出版社,1997.
[33]杨伟民.地区间收入差距变动实证分析[J].经济研究,1992,(1).
[34]董先安.浅释中国地区收入差距：1952-2002[J].经济研究,2004,(9)：48-59.
[35]叶裕民.全国及个省区市全要素生产率的计算和分析[J].经济学家,2002,(3)：115-121.
[36]武剑.外商直接投资区域分布及其经济增长效应[J].经济学家,2002,(4)：27-35.
[37]陈强.高级计量经济系及state应用[M].北京：高等教育出版社.2010.
[38]许召元、李善同.近年来中国地区差距的变化趋势[J].经济研究,2006(7).
[39]王小鲁,樊纲.中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素[J].经济研究,2004,(1)：33-44.
[40]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析[J].经济研究,2005(9)：19-29.
[41]姚枝仲,周素芳.劳动力流动与地区差距[J].世界经济,2003(4)：35-44.
[42]刘强.中国经济增长的收敛性分析[J].经济研究,2001(6)：70-77.
[43]刘夏明、魏英骐、李国平.收敛还是发散?——中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述[J].经济研究,2004,(7),70-81.
[44]杨晓光、樊杰、赵燕霞.20世纪90年代中国区域经济增长的要素分析[J].地理学报,2002,(6).
[45]沈坤荣.1978-1997年中国经济增长因素的实证分析[J].经济学,1994(4).
[46]李万茂.关于投资对经济增长贡献的计算方法应用简析[J].统计研究,1999,(5).
[2]Delong, J. B. and Summers, L. H.; Equipment investment and economic growth; Quarterly Journal of Economics; 1992(2):445-502.
[3]Dagum Camilo,1997a, A new approach to the decomposition of the Gini income inequality ratio, Empirical Econ.22,(4),515-531.
[4]Fleisher, Belton M. and Jian Chen,1997, The Coast-Noncoast Income Gap, Productivity, and Regional Economic Policy in ChinaO, Journal of Comparative Economics:25 (2),220-236.
[5]Lee, Jongchul.,1994, Regional Differences in the Impact of the Open Door Policy on Income Growth in China, Journal of Economic Development,19 (1): 215-34.
[6]Tsui K. Y.,1996, Economic reform and interprovincial inequalities in China, J. Develop. Econ.50,353-368.
[7]Wei Y. D.,1999, Regional inequality in ChinaO, Progress in Human Geography 23(1),49-59.
[8]Yang D. T.,2002, what has caused regional inequality in China, China Econ. Rev. 13,331-334.
[9]蔡昉,都阳.中国地区经济增长的趋同与差异—对西部开发战略的启示[J].《经济研究》,2000,(10).
[10]魏后凯.中国地区经济增长及其收敛性[J].中国工业经济,1997,(3).
[11]盖文启.我国东西部经济协调发展探析[J].经济地理,1997,17(2).
[12]刘金全,于惠春.我国固定资产投资和经济增长之间影响关系的实证分析[J].统计研究,2002,(1).
[13]李万茂.关于投资对经济增长贡献的计算方法应用简析[J].统计研究,1999,(5).
[14]刘金全,于惠春.我国固定资产投资与经济增长之间影响关系的实证分析 [J].统计研究,2002,(1)：26-29.
[15]杨明洪,孙继琼.中国地区差距时空演变特征的实证分析[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2006,(1).
[16]沈坤荣,马俊.中国经济增长的“俱乐部收敛”特征及其成因研究[J].经济研究,2002,(1)：33-39.
[17]王维通,徐晓鹰.关于山东省经济区域划分的思考[J].华东经济管理,2001,15(2)：9-10.
[18]盖文启.山东省东西部地区经济差异变动趋势探析[J].山东社会科学,1999(1).
[19]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].北京：商务印书馆,1972.
[20]大卫·李嘉图.政治经济学及税赋原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1976.
[21]罗伯特·M·索洛.经济增长因素分析[M].北京：商务印书馆,1991.
[22]李红松.固定资产投资与经济增长关系的地区差异比较[J].决策参考,2004,(5).
[23]田泽永,江可申.固定资产投资对经济增长贡献的比较研究—居于东、中、西部面板数据的分析[J].预测,2008,(1)：31-40.
[24]向家敏.中国固定资产投资对经济增长贡献的地区差异分析[D].重庆.重庆大学,2007.
[25]李红松.固定资产投资与经济增长关系的地区差异比较[J].生产力研究,2004,(5)：104-105.
[26]林毅夫、蔡防、李周,中国经济转型的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998,(10).
[27]陆大道,刘卫东.论我国区域发展与区域政策的地学基础[J].地理科学,2000,20(60)：487-493.
[28]吴殿廷.试论中国经济增长的南北差异[J].地理研究,2001,20(2)：238-243.
[29]覃成林.中国区域经济差异研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社,1997.
[30]杨开忠.中国区域经济差异变动研究[J].经济研究,1994,(12)：28-33.
[31]吴殿廷,试论中国经济增长的南北差异[J].地理研究,2001,20(2)：238 --246.
[32]魏后凯、刘楷等.中国地区发展：经济增长、制度变迁与地区差异[M].北京：经济管理出版社,1997.
[33]杨伟民.地区间收入差距变动实证分析[J].经济研究,1992,(1).
[34]董先安.浅释中国地区收入差距：1952-2002[J].经济研究,2004,(9)：48-59.
[35]叶裕民.全国及个省区市全要素生产率的计算和分析[J].经济学家,2002,(3)：115-121.
[36]武剑.外商直接投资区域分布及其经济增长效应[J].经济学家,2002,(4)：27-35.
[37]陈强.高级计量经济系及state应用[M].北京：高等教育出版社.2010.
[38]许召元、李善同.近年来中国地区差距的变化趋势[J].经济研究,2006(7).
[39]王小鲁,樊纲.中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素[J].经济研究,2004,(1)：33-44.
[40]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析[J].经济研究,2005(9)：19-29.
[41]姚枝仲,周素芳.劳动力流动与地区差距[J].世界经济,2003(4)：35-44.
[42]刘强.中国经济增长的收敛性分析[J].经济研究,2001(6)：70-77.
[43]刘夏明、魏英骐、李国平.收敛还是发散?——中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述[J].经济研究,2004,(7),70-81.
[44]杨晓光、樊杰、赵燕霞.20世纪90年代中国区域经济增长的要素分析[J].地理学报,2002,(6).
[45]沈坤荣.1978-1997年中国经济增长因素的实证分析[J].经济学,1994(4).
[46]李万茂.关于投资对经济增长贡献的计算方法应用简析[J].统计研究,1999,(5).