基于非农就业视角的农户生猪生产决策研究
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摘要
养猪业是我国农业中传统的优势产业,是城乡居民肉食品的重要来源,在农业经济中占有重要地位。养猪业的发展不仅满足了人们对猪肉及其产品的消费需求,而且为农民增收、农村劳动力就业、粮食转化、带动相关产业的发展等做出了重大贡献。然而,2007年发生的疫情增大了养殖风险,对生猪产业产生了重要影响,使许多农户退出养殖。据农业部统计,2007年,全国有25个省份先后发生高致病性猪蓝耳病疫情,共发病143221头,死亡39455头。受疫病的影响,2008年我国生猪产量急剧下降,降幅达28%。
改革开放以来,中国农户的收入结构发生了巨大变化。从收入构成上看,工资性收入的比重越来越大,1981年农户的非农收入是家庭收入的15%,1995年为32%,到了2007年这一比例达到52.98%。与此同时,家庭经营(尤其是农业经营)收入的比重一直在下降,1995年该项收入占收入的比重为62.86%,到2007年下降为38.90%。劳动力资源是农户家庭资源中最活跃的成分,农民会考虑在既定的制度选择集下将劳动力配置于效率更高的部门。改革开放以来,农村劳动力向城市迁移的制度障碍逐年减少,根据经济学理论,农户将在农业生产与非农生产之间进行时间分配,直到二者的边际收益相等。
由此可见,随着非农收入在家庭收入中所占的比重越来越大、生猪养殖风险的增加,传统的生猪养殖给农户带来的现金在家庭收入中所占的比重越来越小,越来越多的农户退出养殖。而散养户提供的生猪数量占总数量的40%左右,大规模的散养户退出养殖必将造成猪肉价格的波动,影响生猪产业的健康发展。
因此在这样的背景下,本研究拟以生猪主产区四川、江苏两省的生猪散养户为研究对象,实证分析非农就业收入对农户的生猪生产决策的影响；生猪生产风险加大,本研究引入风险变量,验证非农就业收入对农户风险偏好的影响；四川与江苏两省经济发展状况存在较大差异,本研究拟利用分解方法分析两省农户的生猪生产行为的异同,并进一步分析非农收入的增加是扩大还是减少了这种差异；对以上这些问题的考察,将有助于完善生猪生产扶持政策、保障生猪的稳定供应。
本研究的主要结论如下：
(一)江苏、四川两省生猪产量呈下降趋势。通过对江苏、四川两省的生猪养殖数量、养殖户成本收益状况的变化、养殖户劳动力投入的变化以及两省农村居民收入构成进行分析发现：我国的生猪养殖业在畜牧业中占有极其重要的地位,畜牧业在农民收入中占有较高的比例,生猪养殖是我国农村居民的一项重要生产活动；四川、江苏省两省的生猪养殖在我国的生猪产业中有着重要地位,在2006年以前一直处于较平稳发展状态,在2007年由于受到生猪疫病的影响,饲养量与生猪产量急剧下降,然后处于缓慢恢复状态。虽然近年来散养户提供的生猪头数在逐年下降,但由于我国散养户规模庞大,所以农户的生猪养殖行为还将在一定程度上影响着我国猪肉市场的供应。随着城市化进程的不断推进,农村居民的收入构成发生巨大变化,两省农户投入在生猪生产上的劳动力数量不断减少,在非农就业方面投入的劳动力不断增加,这种状态持续下去,将影响我国生猪养殖业的健康发展。
(二)从样本总体来看,非农收入与生猪养殖决策呈显著负相关。利用江苏省与四川省生猪养殖户的调查问卷,对非农就业与农户生猪养殖之间的关系进行实证研究后初步发现,非农就业收入与农户生猪养殖行为之间呈显著负相关,即非农收入越高,农户的养殖意愿越低,可能的原因是：一方面由于非农收入所获取的现金收入缓解了农户的现金约束,农户不再依赖传统的生猪养殖获取现金收入；另一方面随着非农收入的提高,农户的影子工资提高,生猪养殖的机会成本增加,促使农户放弃养殖。
(三)将样本按照非农收入高低分别回归后发现,当非农收入处于高水平时,非农收入与生猪决策呈显著正相关,这说明当非农收入超过一定水平时,在满足家庭基本消费后,非农收入用来进行生产性投资,促进农业生产的发展。而在低收入组,非农收入与农户的生猪养殖呈负相关,由此可以合理推断：非农收入与生猪养殖之间的关系呈U型变化,即在初期,随着非农收入的增加,农户有了一部分现金,放弃了养殖,当非农收入达到较高点时,农户可以用富裕的资金扩大生猪养殖规模,而此时农户由传统的散养户向规模户转变。
(四)非农收入影响了农户的风险偏好,而风险偏好影响生猪生产。农户为了取得非农收入大多要到进城务工,外出务工的经历,使农民在增加物质资本的同时,还增长了阅历、积累了技术与人脉。有形资本与无形资本的积累,改变了传统小农所具有的保守特性,思想更理性、思维更开放,因此,这部分农民不再是风险规避型,而变得敢于冒风险、尝试创业。进一步的实证研究表明,农户风险特征受到非农收入、获得贷款的难易程度、所在地区的金融市场发育情况的影响：非农收入越高,农户越偏好风险,二者呈显著的正相关；农户所在地区的金融市场发育越完善,农户获得贷款越容易,农户越愿意冒风险,即外部约束条件越宽松,越能够帮助农户分散风险,农户风险规避的倾向越弱；生猪生产因周期长,产品不方便储存等原因导致其风险要高于其他农产品。实证分析表明,农户的风险偏好影响了农户的生猪生产决策,二者呈显著正相关。这说明,在生猪养殖的自然风险(疫病风险)和市场风险不断加大的情况下,只有那些风险偏好型的农户才选择扩大养殖,属于风险规避和风险中立的农户会选择减少养殖或退出养殖。
(五)江苏、四川两省农户的生猪生产决策存在着显著的地区差异,非农收入是影响造成差异的主要原因之一。回归结果表明,相对于江苏省农户而言,四川省农户更倾向于进行生猪养殖。进一步地,利用Blinder-Oaxaca分解方法对地区差异进行分解,结果表明,两地农户的生猪生产决策存在显著的地区差异。非农收入在不同地区对农户生猪生产决策影响的效果不同。分地区的回归结果表明,该变量与农户生猪生产决策呈显著负相关,但影响的效果不同。在四川省的样本中,该系数为-0.624,而在江苏省,该系数为-1.623,由此可以得出结论,非农收入对生猪养殖行为的影响存在地区差异,对江苏省农户的影响作用大于四川省农户。在所有的差异中,对差异贡献最大的因素是非农收入,其贡献率高达40.22%。
根据以上研究结论,本文提出完善生猪生产扶持政策的相关建议,主要包括：完善信贷机制,为农户扩大养殖规模提供所需资金；考虑地区差异,有针对性地出台政策；鼓励农民回乡创业,扩大生猪养殖规模。
Hog-raising industry is one of the traditional competitive industries of our agriculture and an important source of meat for urban and rural citizens, which plays an imperative role in agricultural economics. The development of hog production did not only meet the demand of pork and its products, but also contribute a lot to the farmers'income increase, rural labor employment, transformation of grains and stimulating the development of related industries. But epidemic occurred in2007increased the risk of hog-raising and exerted an important influence on hog production, and many farmers were forced to quit this industry. According to Ministry of Agriculture, epidemic of highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (HPPRRS) occurred in25provinces in2007, affecting143,221pigs,39,455of which were dead. The production of hog was greatly decreased by28%affected by the epidemic.
Since reform and opening policy, enormous changes have taken place on the income constitution of Chinese farmers. Judging from its constitution, salary income took larger and larger proportions in farmers'total income, non-farm income took15%of total household income in1981,32%in1995, and this proportion reached52.98%in2007. At the same time, the proportion of household production (especially agricultural production) income kept falling, this proportion was62.86%in1995, and fell to38.90%in2007. Labor resource is the most active resource in farmers'household, farmers tend to allocate labors to more efficient department under fixed system. After the reform and opening policy was issued, institutional barriers to the transfer of labors to urban decreased, according to economic theories, farmers would allocate their time between agricultural and non-farm production until marginal benefits of their equals.
Thus, with the increasing proportion of non-farm income and the increasing risk of hog production, traditional hog-raising provides smaller and smaller proportion of cash, more and more farmers quit hog-raising. Hog raising households provide about40%of total hog production, which inevitably lead to the price fluctuation of pork prices and affected the development of hog industry.
So under this background, the overall objective of this research was to empirical study the effect of non-farm employment on farmers'decision-making of hog production with farmers of Sichuan and Jiangsu as objects; with the increasing of risk of hog raising, what the influence of risk preference on farmers'decision-making? How non-farm income affects farmers'risk preference? What the differences between act of hog production in Sichuan and Jiangsu with large gap between the economic situations in two provinces? Did the increase of non-farm income enlarged or narrowed this gap? Investigation of these questions had profound theoretical and actual meanings on the perfection of hog production supportive policy and insurance of a stable supply of pork.
Major conclusions of this research were listed as follows:
1. Farmers'desire of hog raising decreases with the increase of non-farm income. Based on the analysis of the variation of the amount, cost and benefit hog raising in Sichuan and Jiangsu, devoted labors and the citizens'income constitution:hog industry played a vital role in animal husbandry in our country, animal husbandry took a relative higher proportion in farmers'income, hog raising is an important producing activity of rural citizens; hog-raising in Sichuan and Jiangsu played a vital role in our country, and kept stably developing since2006, the raising amount and decreased production sharply affected by epidemics in2007, but gradually recovered since then. In recent years, household hog production decreased year by year, but because of its large scale, household hog production will still affect the pork supply to some extent. With the process of urbanization, great changes had occurred on the composition of rural citizens'income, the amount of labors devoted to hog production keeps falling, while non-farm employment increased. If this trend continued, the development of hog industry will be greatly affected.
2. Judged from the total samples, non-farm income negatively related to hog raising decisions. Empirical study were performed on the relationship between non-farm income and hog raising based on the questionnaires for Jiangsu and Sichuan hog raising households. Non-farm income were found to be negatively related to hog raising decisions, the higher non-farm income, the less farmers desired to raise pigs. The possible reason is:on the one hand, non-farm income released the farmers from the restrain of cash, they no longer depend on the traditional hog raising to obtain cash, on the other hand, with the increase of non-farm income, the opportunity cost of hog raising increased which drive the farmers out of hog raising.
3. When non-farm income keeps at a high level, non-farm income would be positively related to hog raising decision. The relationship between non-farm income and hog raising could be shown by an "U" curve. To gain more insight to the relationship between non-farm income and hog raising, the samples were grouped according to their non-farm income, namely the low non-farm income group and high non-farm income group. Two groups showed different features of hog raising decision making by regression respectively: for high non-farm income group, non-farm income positively related to raising scales, indicating that when non-farm income reached a certain level, non-farm income could promote agricultural production after meeting their basic needs, non-farm income could increase the investment on agriculture and promote the development of agricultural production in a long term. For low non-farm income group, negatively related to hog raising decisions. The relationship between non-farm income and hog raising could be shown by an "U" curve, at primary phase, with the increase of non-farm income, farmers quit hog raising with a certain amount of cash, when the income raised to a higher level, more disposable cash could be used to enlarge the scale of hog raising, and traditional households raising were transferred into scaled raising. This conformed to the plan of the government, which was proposed in "Guidance for the development of hog production" in2008that financial subsidies could be provided for hog raising households who reached a certain scale.
4. Non-farm income affected farmers'risk preference. Non-farm income was mostly obtained by working in the city, the experiences of working not only increased their material capital, but also increased their life experience, techniques and human relationships. The accumulation of physical and incorporeal capital changed the farmers' value, making them the more rational and opening characters of modern citizens. So they get over the traditional reserved and risk-escaping character of small farmers to be more modern. Further empirical study indicated that farmers'risk character was affected by non-farm income, the difficulty of credit acquisition, the developing state of local financial market. The higher non-farm income, the more farmers preferred risks, they were positively related; the more perfectly local financial market developed, the easier farmer could get credit, the more risks farmers are willing to take, e.g. the looser exterior restrains, the more risks could be dispersed, the smaller tendency of farmers avoidance of risks. The farmers'preference of risks affected the decision making of hog raising. The risk of hog raising was higher than other production. As shown by the empirical analysis, the farmers' preference of risks affected the decision making of hog raising, they were positively related. This indicated that, with the continuous increase of natural risks (epidemic risks) and market risks of hog raising, only risk-preferred farmers chose to enlarge raising scale, risk-avoiding and neutral farmers would decrease raising amount or quit.
5. Regional difference existed between farmers' decision making of hog raising in Jiangsu and Sichuan and non-farm income was one of the major cause of this difference. The result of regression showed that farmers in Sichuan more tended to raise hogs compared with those in Jiangsu, indicating that the act of hog raising possessed regional characters. Further, Blinder-Oaxaca were applied to resolve the regional difference, results demonstrated that significant regional differences existed. Non-farm income had different influences on farmers'decision making. Regional regression demonstrated that this variable negatively related to farmers' decision making with different effects. The relative coefficient was-0.624for Sichuan samples, while-1.623for Jiangsu. It is concluded that regional difference existed between farmers' decision making of hog production Jiangsu and Sichuan, the influence on Jiangsu was larger than that in Sichuan. Of all the differences, the most effective factor was non-farm income, whose contribution rate reached40.22%.
According to the above conclusions, suggestions on the perfection of hog raising supportive policy were proposed in this paper:carry out progressive raising subsidies and enlarge benefited scales; perfect credit mechanism and provide financial support to enlarge hog raising scales; taking regional differences into consideration and make targeted policies; encourage farmers to return and venture and enlarge hog raising scales.
改革开放以来,中国农户的收入结构发生了巨大变化。从收入构成上看,工资性收入的比重越来越大,1981年农户的非农收入是家庭收入的15%,1995年为32%,到了2007年这一比例达到52.98%。与此同时,家庭经营(尤其是农业经营)收入的比重一直在下降,1995年该项收入占收入的比重为62.86%,到2007年下降为38.90%。劳动力资源是农户家庭资源中最活跃的成分,农民会考虑在既定的制度选择集下将劳动力配置于效率更高的部门。改革开放以来,农村劳动力向城市迁移的制度障碍逐年减少,根据经济学理论,农户将在农业生产与非农生产之间进行时间分配,直到二者的边际收益相等。
由此可见,随着非农收入在家庭收入中所占的比重越来越大、生猪养殖风险的增加,传统的生猪养殖给农户带来的现金在家庭收入中所占的比重越来越小,越来越多的农户退出养殖。而散养户提供的生猪数量占总数量的40%左右,大规模的散养户退出养殖必将造成猪肉价格的波动,影响生猪产业的健康发展。
因此在这样的背景下,本研究拟以生猪主产区四川、江苏两省的生猪散养户为研究对象,实证分析非农就业收入对农户的生猪生产决策的影响；生猪生产风险加大,本研究引入风险变量,验证非农就业收入对农户风险偏好的影响；四川与江苏两省经济发展状况存在较大差异,本研究拟利用分解方法分析两省农户的生猪生产行为的异同,并进一步分析非农收入的增加是扩大还是减少了这种差异；对以上这些问题的考察,将有助于完善生猪生产扶持政策、保障生猪的稳定供应。
本研究的主要结论如下：
(一)江苏、四川两省生猪产量呈下降趋势。通过对江苏、四川两省的生猪养殖数量、养殖户成本收益状况的变化、养殖户劳动力投入的变化以及两省农村居民收入构成进行分析发现：我国的生猪养殖业在畜牧业中占有极其重要的地位,畜牧业在农民收入中占有较高的比例,生猪养殖是我国农村居民的一项重要生产活动；四川、江苏省两省的生猪养殖在我国的生猪产业中有着重要地位,在2006年以前一直处于较平稳发展状态,在2007年由于受到生猪疫病的影响,饲养量与生猪产量急剧下降,然后处于缓慢恢复状态。虽然近年来散养户提供的生猪头数在逐年下降,但由于我国散养户规模庞大,所以农户的生猪养殖行为还将在一定程度上影响着我国猪肉市场的供应。随着城市化进程的不断推进,农村居民的收入构成发生巨大变化,两省农户投入在生猪生产上的劳动力数量不断减少,在非农就业方面投入的劳动力不断增加,这种状态持续下去,将影响我国生猪养殖业的健康发展。
(二)从样本总体来看,非农收入与生猪养殖决策呈显著负相关。利用江苏省与四川省生猪养殖户的调查问卷,对非农就业与农户生猪养殖之间的关系进行实证研究后初步发现,非农就业收入与农户生猪养殖行为之间呈显著负相关,即非农收入越高,农户的养殖意愿越低,可能的原因是：一方面由于非农收入所获取的现金收入缓解了农户的现金约束,农户不再依赖传统的生猪养殖获取现金收入；另一方面随着非农收入的提高,农户的影子工资提高,生猪养殖的机会成本增加,促使农户放弃养殖。
(三)将样本按照非农收入高低分别回归后发现,当非农收入处于高水平时,非农收入与生猪决策呈显著正相关,这说明当非农收入超过一定水平时,在满足家庭基本消费后,非农收入用来进行生产性投资,促进农业生产的发展。而在低收入组,非农收入与农户的生猪养殖呈负相关,由此可以合理推断：非农收入与生猪养殖之间的关系呈U型变化,即在初期,随着非农收入的增加,农户有了一部分现金,放弃了养殖,当非农收入达到较高点时,农户可以用富裕的资金扩大生猪养殖规模,而此时农户由传统的散养户向规模户转变。
(四)非农收入影响了农户的风险偏好,而风险偏好影响生猪生产。农户为了取得非农收入大多要到进城务工,外出务工的经历,使农民在增加物质资本的同时,还增长了阅历、积累了技术与人脉。有形资本与无形资本的积累,改变了传统小农所具有的保守特性,思想更理性、思维更开放,因此,这部分农民不再是风险规避型,而变得敢于冒风险、尝试创业。进一步的实证研究表明,农户风险特征受到非农收入、获得贷款的难易程度、所在地区的金融市场发育情况的影响：非农收入越高,农户越偏好风险,二者呈显著的正相关；农户所在地区的金融市场发育越完善,农户获得贷款越容易,农户越愿意冒风险,即外部约束条件越宽松,越能够帮助农户分散风险,农户风险规避的倾向越弱；生猪生产因周期长,产品不方便储存等原因导致其风险要高于其他农产品。实证分析表明,农户的风险偏好影响了农户的生猪生产决策,二者呈显著正相关。这说明,在生猪养殖的自然风险(疫病风险)和市场风险不断加大的情况下,只有那些风险偏好型的农户才选择扩大养殖,属于风险规避和风险中立的农户会选择减少养殖或退出养殖。
(五)江苏、四川两省农户的生猪生产决策存在着显著的地区差异,非农收入是影响造成差异的主要原因之一。回归结果表明,相对于江苏省农户而言,四川省农户更倾向于进行生猪养殖。进一步地,利用Blinder-Oaxaca分解方法对地区差异进行分解,结果表明,两地农户的生猪生产决策存在显著的地区差异。非农收入在不同地区对农户生猪生产决策影响的效果不同。分地区的回归结果表明,该变量与农户生猪生产决策呈显著负相关,但影响的效果不同。在四川省的样本中,该系数为-0.624,而在江苏省,该系数为-1.623,由此可以得出结论,非农收入对生猪养殖行为的影响存在地区差异,对江苏省农户的影响作用大于四川省农户。在所有的差异中,对差异贡献最大的因素是非农收入,其贡献率高达40.22%。
根据以上研究结论,本文提出完善生猪生产扶持政策的相关建议,主要包括：完善信贷机制,为农户扩大养殖规模提供所需资金；考虑地区差异,有针对性地出台政策；鼓励农民回乡创业,扩大生猪养殖规模。
Hog-raising industry is one of the traditional competitive industries of our agriculture and an important source of meat for urban and rural citizens, which plays an imperative role in agricultural economics. The development of hog production did not only meet the demand of pork and its products, but also contribute a lot to the farmers'income increase, rural labor employment, transformation of grains and stimulating the development of related industries. But epidemic occurred in2007increased the risk of hog-raising and exerted an important influence on hog production, and many farmers were forced to quit this industry. According to Ministry of Agriculture, epidemic of highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (HPPRRS) occurred in25provinces in2007, affecting143,221pigs,39,455of which were dead. The production of hog was greatly decreased by28%affected by the epidemic.
Since reform and opening policy, enormous changes have taken place on the income constitution of Chinese farmers. Judging from its constitution, salary income took larger and larger proportions in farmers'total income, non-farm income took15%of total household income in1981,32%in1995, and this proportion reached52.98%in2007. At the same time, the proportion of household production (especially agricultural production) income kept falling, this proportion was62.86%in1995, and fell to38.90%in2007. Labor resource is the most active resource in farmers'household, farmers tend to allocate labors to more efficient department under fixed system. After the reform and opening policy was issued, institutional barriers to the transfer of labors to urban decreased, according to economic theories, farmers would allocate their time between agricultural and non-farm production until marginal benefits of their equals.
Thus, with the increasing proportion of non-farm income and the increasing risk of hog production, traditional hog-raising provides smaller and smaller proportion of cash, more and more farmers quit hog-raising. Hog raising households provide about40%of total hog production, which inevitably lead to the price fluctuation of pork prices and affected the development of hog industry.
So under this background, the overall objective of this research was to empirical study the effect of non-farm employment on farmers'decision-making of hog production with farmers of Sichuan and Jiangsu as objects; with the increasing of risk of hog raising, what the influence of risk preference on farmers'decision-making? How non-farm income affects farmers'risk preference? What the differences between act of hog production in Sichuan and Jiangsu with large gap between the economic situations in two provinces? Did the increase of non-farm income enlarged or narrowed this gap? Investigation of these questions had profound theoretical and actual meanings on the perfection of hog production supportive policy and insurance of a stable supply of pork.
Major conclusions of this research were listed as follows:
1. Farmers'desire of hog raising decreases with the increase of non-farm income. Based on the analysis of the variation of the amount, cost and benefit hog raising in Sichuan and Jiangsu, devoted labors and the citizens'income constitution:hog industry played a vital role in animal husbandry in our country, animal husbandry took a relative higher proportion in farmers'income, hog raising is an important producing activity of rural citizens; hog-raising in Sichuan and Jiangsu played a vital role in our country, and kept stably developing since2006, the raising amount and decreased production sharply affected by epidemics in2007, but gradually recovered since then. In recent years, household hog production decreased year by year, but because of its large scale, household hog production will still affect the pork supply to some extent. With the process of urbanization, great changes had occurred on the composition of rural citizens'income, the amount of labors devoted to hog production keeps falling, while non-farm employment increased. If this trend continued, the development of hog industry will be greatly affected.
2. Judged from the total samples, non-farm income negatively related to hog raising decisions. Empirical study were performed on the relationship between non-farm income and hog raising based on the questionnaires for Jiangsu and Sichuan hog raising households. Non-farm income were found to be negatively related to hog raising decisions, the higher non-farm income, the less farmers desired to raise pigs. The possible reason is:on the one hand, non-farm income released the farmers from the restrain of cash, they no longer depend on the traditional hog raising to obtain cash, on the other hand, with the increase of non-farm income, the opportunity cost of hog raising increased which drive the farmers out of hog raising.
3. When non-farm income keeps at a high level, non-farm income would be positively related to hog raising decision. The relationship between non-farm income and hog raising could be shown by an "U" curve. To gain more insight to the relationship between non-farm income and hog raising, the samples were grouped according to their non-farm income, namely the low non-farm income group and high non-farm income group. Two groups showed different features of hog raising decision making by regression respectively: for high non-farm income group, non-farm income positively related to raising scales, indicating that when non-farm income reached a certain level, non-farm income could promote agricultural production after meeting their basic needs, non-farm income could increase the investment on agriculture and promote the development of agricultural production in a long term. For low non-farm income group, negatively related to hog raising decisions. The relationship between non-farm income and hog raising could be shown by an "U" curve, at primary phase, with the increase of non-farm income, farmers quit hog raising with a certain amount of cash, when the income raised to a higher level, more disposable cash could be used to enlarge the scale of hog raising, and traditional households raising were transferred into scaled raising. This conformed to the plan of the government, which was proposed in "Guidance for the development of hog production" in2008that financial subsidies could be provided for hog raising households who reached a certain scale.
4. Non-farm income affected farmers'risk preference. Non-farm income was mostly obtained by working in the city, the experiences of working not only increased their material capital, but also increased their life experience, techniques and human relationships. The accumulation of physical and incorporeal capital changed the farmers' value, making them the more rational and opening characters of modern citizens. So they get over the traditional reserved and risk-escaping character of small farmers to be more modern. Further empirical study indicated that farmers'risk character was affected by non-farm income, the difficulty of credit acquisition, the developing state of local financial market. The higher non-farm income, the more farmers preferred risks, they were positively related; the more perfectly local financial market developed, the easier farmer could get credit, the more risks farmers are willing to take, e.g. the looser exterior restrains, the more risks could be dispersed, the smaller tendency of farmers avoidance of risks. The farmers'preference of risks affected the decision making of hog raising. The risk of hog raising was higher than other production. As shown by the empirical analysis, the farmers' preference of risks affected the decision making of hog raising, they were positively related. This indicated that, with the continuous increase of natural risks (epidemic risks) and market risks of hog raising, only risk-preferred farmers chose to enlarge raising scale, risk-avoiding and neutral farmers would decrease raising amount or quit.
5. Regional difference existed between farmers' decision making of hog raising in Jiangsu and Sichuan and non-farm income was one of the major cause of this difference. The result of regression showed that farmers in Sichuan more tended to raise hogs compared with those in Jiangsu, indicating that the act of hog raising possessed regional characters. Further, Blinder-Oaxaca were applied to resolve the regional difference, results demonstrated that significant regional differences existed. Non-farm income had different influences on farmers'decision making. Regional regression demonstrated that this variable negatively related to farmers' decision making with different effects. The relative coefficient was-0.624for Sichuan samples, while-1.623for Jiangsu. It is concluded that regional difference existed between farmers' decision making of hog production Jiangsu and Sichuan, the influence on Jiangsu was larger than that in Sichuan. Of all the differences, the most effective factor was non-farm income, whose contribution rate reached40.22%.
According to the above conclusions, suggestions on the perfection of hog raising supportive policy were proposed in this paper:carry out progressive raising subsidies and enlarge benefited scales; perfect credit mechanism and provide financial support to enlarge hog raising scales; taking regional differences into consideration and make targeted policies; encourage farmers to return and venture and enlarge hog raising scales.
引文
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