后布雷顿森林体系下东亚钉住汇率制度研究
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摘要
在东亚金融危机前，东亚实际上已经形成了集体钉住美元的汇率制度博弈格局。尽管钉住汇率制度在危机中曾一度中断并被许多人指责为导致这场危机的制度性原因，但大量实证检验表明危机后东亚各新兴经济体纷纷恢复了钉住美元。进入新千年，随着东亚新兴经济体对美国出现大量的经常项目盈余，全球性经济失衡使国内外的关注焦点重新集中在东亚实行了多年的事实钉住汇率制度上。东亚正面临着来自国内外的挑战：对内，由于实行事实钉住美元汇率制度而积累的巨额外汇储备已经开始制造通货膨胀压力；对外，以美国为首的发达国家将美国外部失衡乃至全球经济不平衡归咎于东亚新兴经济体以钉住制度操纵汇率。因此，探讨在后布雷顿森林体系时代，东亚新兴经济体集体钉住美元制的合意性和未来走向具有重要现实意义。本研究以东亚集体钉住美元制的内稳定机制——金融恐怖均衡为主线，从东亚钉住美元汇率制度的成因、运转机制、可持续性和退出战略等方面，对东亚钉住汇率制度进行了全方位的深入研究，得出了东亚新兴经济体必须从集体钉住美元制退出、实行区域汇率协调的结论。
本研究由导论、正文和结论组成，其中正文分为七大部分。正文的第一部分回顾了国际货币制度对汇率制度选择的制约关系。理论梳理表明，不论国际汇率制度安排还是一国汇率制度选择都必须服从于某一时期特定国际货币制度的规定。
第二部分总结了在后布雷顿森林体系下新兴经济体偏好钉住汇率制度的新理论。最近几年涌现了关于新兴经济体偏好钉住汇率制度的“害怕浮动论”等新理论和对事实汇率制度分类的实证检验，它们从理论上支持了东亚新兴经济体选择钉住汇率制度的合意性。
第三部分剖析了布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来东亚新兴经济体形成集体钉住美元制的内在机制——美国依赖东亚资本流入来弥补巨额经常项目赤字的“金融恐怖均衡”。“金融恐怖均衡”实际上是美国同东亚新兴经济体整体、东亚新兴经济体之间两阶段非合作博弈的纳什均衡结果。作为东亚新兴经济体经济制度的重要部分，实证检验表明东亚集体钉住美元汇率制曾在东亚各经济体和东亚地区产生了积极的宏观经济绩效。
第四部分比较了历史上几次典型的国际性钉住美元安排：东亚集体美元钉住制度、布雷顿森林体系下“可调整”钉住美元安排、拉美地区钉住汇率制度和美元化倾向。比较结果表明，由于所处的国际货币体系、经济发展战略和经济发展阶段发生了根本变化，东亚新兴经济体集体钉住美元制度呈现出独有的特点。
第五部分探讨了东亚新兴经济体集体钉住美元制的可持续性。以下几点事实使得东亚集体钉住美元不可持续：第一，维持金融恐怖均衡的基本要素美国经常项目赤字和东亚新兴经济体经常项目盈余不可无限持续，而且二者已经成为全球经济失衡的重要威胁；第二，东亚事实钉住汇率制度逐渐从正的经济绩效变为东亚新兴经济体经济发展的桎梏；第三，主要国际货币之间汇率剧烈波动，致使东亚单一钉住美元的汇率制度极度不稳定。
第六部分设计了东亚从集体钉住美元制退出的战略。建议东亚采取钉住类似货币篮子的软汇率目标区这一相对层次较低的区域汇率协调方式。具体做法是，东亚新兴经济体钉住由主要国际货币美元、欧元和日元以及本币上一期汇率构成的类似货币篮子；在各经济体货币篮子中，赋予这四种货币相同的权重。这个方案的优点在于，能根据实际经济环境的变化，既保证各参加国货币政策相当程度上的独立性，又实现了区域汇率一定程度上的协调，从而达到稳定区域汇率、摆脱“金融恐怖均衡”阴影和对美国过度依赖的目的。
第七部分将落脚点放在了中国人民币汇率制度改革和东亚区域汇率协调的关系上。2005年夏季人民币汇率制度改革与东亚以区域汇率协调方式退出集体钉住美元制的改革将相互促进。东亚区域汇率协调为人民币汇率制度改革创造了稳定的大环境，人民币汇率保持稳定有助于东亚区域汇率的稳定。
纵观全文，本研究试图在以下几个方面进行突破和创新：
第一，摒弃大多数关于汇率制度选择问题研究单纯就汇率制度而研究汇率制度的方式，力图把东亚新兴经济体汇率制度的选择与现行国际货币体系这个大环境结合起来。鉴于当前国际货币体系的不公平性，论证了东亚新兴经济体选择钉住美元汇率制度在一定程度上具有历史合意性，在理论上也得到了国际货币体系约束下的汇率制度选择理论支持。但随着条件的变化，集体钉住美元与现行国际货币体系间的矛盾日益激化，东亚新兴经济体在全球经济不平衡中承担了过多的责任。显然，在不可能立即改革现行国际货币制度的情况下，任何一个发展中国家都无法单边解决汇率制度选择的困境。
第二，尝试用博弈论分析东亚新兴经济体集体钉住美元的内稳定机制——美国经常项目赤字依靠东亚新兴经济体经常项目盈余融资的“金融恐怖均衡”。本研究将美国前财政部长萨莫斯提出的“金融恐怖均衡”这个概念分成了两个次博弈组成的两阶段博弈：第一阶段为9个东亚新兴经济体间的“囚徒困境”博弈。正是东亚新兴经济体间非合作博弈和出口导向型发展战略，导致了各经济体集体钉住美元的纳什均衡结果。第二阶段是领导者美国同跟随者东亚新兴经济体之间“斯塔克博尔格”博弈。东亚新兴经济体非合作博弈的结果——集体钉住美元，使得美国可以充分利用经常项目赤字来廉价获取东亚的自然资源、技术和资金。美国看准这一点，充当了博弈的领导者，采取先发优势，对东亚跟随者做出了可置信威胁——“金融恐怖”。这构成了美国和东亚新兴经济体之间的非合作博弈。
第三，运用汇率制度特别是钉住汇率制度实证研究方面的成果，对东亚事实钉住汇率制度的判定、经济绩效和主要货币波动对东亚经济体的影响等方面进行了大量的回归计量分析。在计量分析过程，没有简单地将他人的研究模型不加区别地直接拿来使用，而是根据研究的实际情况和需要加入了新的变量因素和舍弃了一些不必要的变量因素，以期对东亚集体钉住美元的成因、运行状况和经济绩效做出更为科学的分析。
第四，提出东亚新兴经济体采用以软汇率目标区为基础的区域汇率协调方案，作为短期内调整外部不平衡和打破“金融恐怖均衡”的手段。现有文献对东亚区域汇率协调方案的设计，一般都偏向于根据OCA理论建立最优货币区这样高层次的货币合作。实际上，最优货币区应该是东亚新兴经济体努力的长期目标，它无助于解决这些经济体在当前全球不平衡中的尴尬局面。以钉住由美元、欧元、日元三种主要国际货币和本币上一期汇率组成的类似货币篮子为基础的软汇率目标区属于区域汇率协调的较低级阶段。各经济体钉住类似货币篮子，体现了各经济体对外贸易格局和对外资本流动的关系，避免了中心汇率的“跃迁”以实现平滑调整，赋予了各经济体汇率政策更大的灵活性。钉住类似货币篮子也有利于东亚在当前共同钉住美元的基础上平稳过渡到区域汇率协调，并为东亚将来进行更高层次的合作打下坚实基础。
当然，作者自身能力有限，因而本研究存在许多缺陷和不足之处，有待于进一步解决，具体包括：
1、本研究试图从国际货币制度角度对众多汇率制度选择理论进行梳理。但考虑到国际货币制度制约性这个前提，将一些比较新的汇率选择理论省略了，因此对汇率制度选择理论的梳理就显得不完善。
2、在对东亚各经济体实行钉住美元制的经济绩效进行计量分析时，只简单地分析了几个宏观经济指标，没有考察对国内各行业或企业的微观绩效。而且本研究的考察对象为9个东亚新兴经济体，因此进行实证分析时，数据收集比较庞杂，特别是有关中国台湾的个别数据残缺不全，成为本研究的一大遗憾。
3、作为人为设计的区域性汇率制度安排，软汇率目标方案仍存在不少有待于解决的问题。如设计实证模型来估算货币篮子币种的选择和中心汇率的调整依据，估算各经济体放弃钉住美元制转向区域汇率协调的过渡成本等等。
East Asian newly emerging countries (EANECs) had pegging collectively to US dollar before Asian Financial Crisis. Though the exchange rate regime was quit during the crisis and was criticized, a lot of empirical tests show that all economies have restored pegging after the crisis. Entering the new millenary, collectively pegging to US dollar are becoming a hot issue both domestically and internationally. Domestically, the regimes of de facto pegging to US dollar have given rise to inflation pressure. Internationally, developed countries especially US have own US external imbalance even global economic imbalance to EANECs manipulating exchange rate. To explore desirable regimes to alleviate domestic and international pressures, this paper discusses the reasons, operating system, sustainability and exiting strategies of collectively pegging to US dollar in East Asia. And a conclusion is made that EANECs should exit from collectively pegging to US dollar and turn to regional exchange rates coordination.
This paper consists of introduction, the body and the conclusion. Except the introduction and the conclusion, there are 7 parts in the whole paper. Part One reviews the limitation of international currency regimes on choice of exchange rate regimes. International monetary system basically regulates international exchange rates arrangements and national exchange rate regimes choices.
Part Two summarizes developing countries preference to pegging regimes under post Bretton Woods System. Recently new theories and new empirical test methods all prove the desirability of EANECs pegging to US dollar.
Part Three analyzes the inner stable mechanism, namely "Balance of Financial Terror" (BFT) behind the collectively pegging to dollar. It is by BFT that US is lying in capital flow from EANECs to narrow its huge current account imbalance. BFT, in essence, is Nash equilibriums of non-cooperative gaming between USA and EANECs and among EANECs themselves. As the important parts in EANECs' developing strategies, the collectively pegging to US dollar system is proved to generate active performance in both domestic and world levels.
Part Four compares several typical cases of pegging to US dollar in the history: the adjustable pegging to dollar under Bretton Woods Systems, Latin American newly emerging countries' pegging to dollar and EANECs' pegging to dollar. The regimes of pegging to US dollar in EANECs under post Bretton Woods Systems have sole characteristics.
Part Five explores the sustainability of collectively pegging to US dollar under BFT. The following facts illustrate that BFT is not sustainable. Firstly, US's persistent huge current account deficits and East Asian increasing current account surpluses have menaced the global economic balance. Secondly, the positive performance of pegging system has turned to be negative and hampered further development in EANECs. And lastly, major currencies fluctuate severely, which makes the regime of pegging to US dollar in EANECs extremely instable.
Part Six designs the strategies of exiting from collectively pegging to US dollar in East Asia. This paper suggests that based on theory of soft exchange rates target, regional exchange coordination mean that EANECs peg to a similar currency basket, so that this region would realize stable regional exchange rates, getting rid of the shadow of BFT and realizing advancing regional monetary co-operation in East Asia.
Part Seven goes back to the relationship between China's reforming of RMB regime and regional exchange rates coordination in East Asia. It would be mutual benefits in reforming regime of RMB in the summer, 2005 and regional exchange rates coordination in East Asia.
In a word, this paper has the following breakthrough.
Firstly, getting over the problem of insolating the research exchange rate regimes, this paper tries to combine the choice of exchange rate regimes in EANECs with the current international monetary system. Considering the unfairness in international monetary system, the fact that EANECs choose pegging to US dollar regime is desired at a certain degree. However as the conditions change, collectively pegging to US dollar can't be compatible with the current international monetary system, which causes EANECs burdened overdue responsibility in global economic imbalance. Obviously, one country can't resolve the regime choice dilemma by itself when the current international currency regime will not reform immediately.
Secondly, trying to analyze the inner stable mechanism of EANECs collectively pegging to US dollar - BFT by using game theories . There are two stage games in BFT. The first is the game of Prisoner' Dilemma among 9 EANECs. It is uncooperativeness among the 9 economies which gives rise to they peg to US dollar collectively. The other is Stackelberg competition between US and EANECs. Under the regimes of collectively pegging to US dollar which is the result of uncooperative game, US can cheaply seize enough natural resources, technology and capital via current account deficits. Taking this advantage, US initiates action firstly and makes credible menace to EANECs. This constitutes the uncooperative game between US and EANECs.
Thirdly, empirical tests are used to test de facto pegging to US dollar, performance of this regime and the effect of fluctuation between major currencies in East Asian newly emerging countries (EANECs). This paper does not use the work of other economists directly. On the contrary, it adds some new factors and eliminates some existing factors according to the requirements of research, to make an scientific conclusion.
Fourth, soft exchange rate target is suggested as the theoretic guide of regional exchange rate coordination in East Asia in short run. Almost all the current documents, however, prefer to senior cooperation in East Asian regional monetary cooperation which can't help solving the dilemma faced by EANECs in the global imbalance. Regional exchange rate coordination belongs to junior stage of regional monetary cooperation so that it doesn't require candidates scarify their domestic development to exchange convergence. As for soft exchange rates target, it sets the margins or calibrates central exchange rates flexibly which especially shows more feasibility. Concretely, the paper designs a project that every emerging economy in East Asia pegs to a similar basket consisting of US dollar, Euro, Japanese yen and home currency of the last period. Such basket shows every economy's foreign trade and capital flow, avoiding central exchange rate overshooting. What's more, candidate economy pegging similar basket but not common basket to endow each with some flexibility in exchange rate policy and reduce exiting risk of candidates at discretion.
Of course, because of the author's limitation in the research, there exist some drawbacks which are needed to resolve in the future. They are as follows:
1. Though this paper attempts to set international currency regimes as the background to discuss the problem of exchange rate regimes choices in developing countries, some new theories such as noise theory are omitted for they do not have close relation to international currency regimes. But to do so leave some places un-complete in summarizing exchange rate regimes choices.
2. When measuring the performance of pegging to US dollar in EANECs, several macro-indexes are computed but micro-indexes about domestic industries and firms are not considered.
3. Being a regional exchange rates arrangement, the soft exchange rates target need to be improved. For example, more persuasive models should be built to test the construction of currency basket and calibration of central exchange rates and to estimate the transit costs of each economy transits from pegging regimes to regional exchange rates coordination.
本研究由导论、正文和结论组成，其中正文分为七大部分。正文的第一部分回顾了国际货币制度对汇率制度选择的制约关系。理论梳理表明，不论国际汇率制度安排还是一国汇率制度选择都必须服从于某一时期特定国际货币制度的规定。
第二部分总结了在后布雷顿森林体系下新兴经济体偏好钉住汇率制度的新理论。最近几年涌现了关于新兴经济体偏好钉住汇率制度的“害怕浮动论”等新理论和对事实汇率制度分类的实证检验，它们从理论上支持了东亚新兴经济体选择钉住汇率制度的合意性。
第三部分剖析了布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来东亚新兴经济体形成集体钉住美元制的内在机制——美国依赖东亚资本流入来弥补巨额经常项目赤字的“金融恐怖均衡”。“金融恐怖均衡”实际上是美国同东亚新兴经济体整体、东亚新兴经济体之间两阶段非合作博弈的纳什均衡结果。作为东亚新兴经济体经济制度的重要部分，实证检验表明东亚集体钉住美元汇率制曾在东亚各经济体和东亚地区产生了积极的宏观经济绩效。
第四部分比较了历史上几次典型的国际性钉住美元安排：东亚集体美元钉住制度、布雷顿森林体系下“可调整”钉住美元安排、拉美地区钉住汇率制度和美元化倾向。比较结果表明，由于所处的国际货币体系、经济发展战略和经济发展阶段发生了根本变化，东亚新兴经济体集体钉住美元制度呈现出独有的特点。
第五部分探讨了东亚新兴经济体集体钉住美元制的可持续性。以下几点事实使得东亚集体钉住美元不可持续：第一，维持金融恐怖均衡的基本要素美国经常项目赤字和东亚新兴经济体经常项目盈余不可无限持续，而且二者已经成为全球经济失衡的重要威胁；第二，东亚事实钉住汇率制度逐渐从正的经济绩效变为东亚新兴经济体经济发展的桎梏；第三，主要国际货币之间汇率剧烈波动，致使东亚单一钉住美元的汇率制度极度不稳定。
第六部分设计了东亚从集体钉住美元制退出的战略。建议东亚采取钉住类似货币篮子的软汇率目标区这一相对层次较低的区域汇率协调方式。具体做法是，东亚新兴经济体钉住由主要国际货币美元、欧元和日元以及本币上一期汇率构成的类似货币篮子；在各经济体货币篮子中，赋予这四种货币相同的权重。这个方案的优点在于，能根据实际经济环境的变化，既保证各参加国货币政策相当程度上的独立性，又实现了区域汇率一定程度上的协调，从而达到稳定区域汇率、摆脱“金融恐怖均衡”阴影和对美国过度依赖的目的。
第七部分将落脚点放在了中国人民币汇率制度改革和东亚区域汇率协调的关系上。2005年夏季人民币汇率制度改革与东亚以区域汇率协调方式退出集体钉住美元制的改革将相互促进。东亚区域汇率协调为人民币汇率制度改革创造了稳定的大环境，人民币汇率保持稳定有助于东亚区域汇率的稳定。
纵观全文，本研究试图在以下几个方面进行突破和创新：
第一，摒弃大多数关于汇率制度选择问题研究单纯就汇率制度而研究汇率制度的方式，力图把东亚新兴经济体汇率制度的选择与现行国际货币体系这个大环境结合起来。鉴于当前国际货币体系的不公平性，论证了东亚新兴经济体选择钉住美元汇率制度在一定程度上具有历史合意性，在理论上也得到了国际货币体系约束下的汇率制度选择理论支持。但随着条件的变化，集体钉住美元与现行国际货币体系间的矛盾日益激化，东亚新兴经济体在全球经济不平衡中承担了过多的责任。显然，在不可能立即改革现行国际货币制度的情况下，任何一个发展中国家都无法单边解决汇率制度选择的困境。
第二，尝试用博弈论分析东亚新兴经济体集体钉住美元的内稳定机制——美国经常项目赤字依靠东亚新兴经济体经常项目盈余融资的“金融恐怖均衡”。本研究将美国前财政部长萨莫斯提出的“金融恐怖均衡”这个概念分成了两个次博弈组成的两阶段博弈：第一阶段为9个东亚新兴经济体间的“囚徒困境”博弈。正是东亚新兴经济体间非合作博弈和出口导向型发展战略，导致了各经济体集体钉住美元的纳什均衡结果。第二阶段是领导者美国同跟随者东亚新兴经济体之间“斯塔克博尔格”博弈。东亚新兴经济体非合作博弈的结果——集体钉住美元，使得美国可以充分利用经常项目赤字来廉价获取东亚的自然资源、技术和资金。美国看准这一点，充当了博弈的领导者，采取先发优势，对东亚跟随者做出了可置信威胁——“金融恐怖”。这构成了美国和东亚新兴经济体之间的非合作博弈。
第三，运用汇率制度特别是钉住汇率制度实证研究方面的成果，对东亚事实钉住汇率制度的判定、经济绩效和主要货币波动对东亚经济体的影响等方面进行了大量的回归计量分析。在计量分析过程，没有简单地将他人的研究模型不加区别地直接拿来使用，而是根据研究的实际情况和需要加入了新的变量因素和舍弃了一些不必要的变量因素，以期对东亚集体钉住美元的成因、运行状况和经济绩效做出更为科学的分析。
第四，提出东亚新兴经济体采用以软汇率目标区为基础的区域汇率协调方案，作为短期内调整外部不平衡和打破“金融恐怖均衡”的手段。现有文献对东亚区域汇率协调方案的设计，一般都偏向于根据OCA理论建立最优货币区这样高层次的货币合作。实际上，最优货币区应该是东亚新兴经济体努力的长期目标，它无助于解决这些经济体在当前全球不平衡中的尴尬局面。以钉住由美元、欧元、日元三种主要国际货币和本币上一期汇率组成的类似货币篮子为基础的软汇率目标区属于区域汇率协调的较低级阶段。各经济体钉住类似货币篮子，体现了各经济体对外贸易格局和对外资本流动的关系，避免了中心汇率的“跃迁”以实现平滑调整，赋予了各经济体汇率政策更大的灵活性。钉住类似货币篮子也有利于东亚在当前共同钉住美元的基础上平稳过渡到区域汇率协调，并为东亚将来进行更高层次的合作打下坚实基础。
当然，作者自身能力有限，因而本研究存在许多缺陷和不足之处，有待于进一步解决，具体包括：
1、本研究试图从国际货币制度角度对众多汇率制度选择理论进行梳理。但考虑到国际货币制度制约性这个前提，将一些比较新的汇率选择理论省略了，因此对汇率制度选择理论的梳理就显得不完善。
2、在对东亚各经济体实行钉住美元制的经济绩效进行计量分析时，只简单地分析了几个宏观经济指标，没有考察对国内各行业或企业的微观绩效。而且本研究的考察对象为9个东亚新兴经济体，因此进行实证分析时，数据收集比较庞杂，特别是有关中国台湾的个别数据残缺不全，成为本研究的一大遗憾。
3、作为人为设计的区域性汇率制度安排，软汇率目标方案仍存在不少有待于解决的问题。如设计实证模型来估算货币篮子币种的选择和中心汇率的调整依据，估算各经济体放弃钉住美元制转向区域汇率协调的过渡成本等等。
East Asian newly emerging countries (EANECs) had pegging collectively to US dollar before Asian Financial Crisis. Though the exchange rate regime was quit during the crisis and was criticized, a lot of empirical tests show that all economies have restored pegging after the crisis. Entering the new millenary, collectively pegging to US dollar are becoming a hot issue both domestically and internationally. Domestically, the regimes of de facto pegging to US dollar have given rise to inflation pressure. Internationally, developed countries especially US have own US external imbalance even global economic imbalance to EANECs manipulating exchange rate. To explore desirable regimes to alleviate domestic and international pressures, this paper discusses the reasons, operating system, sustainability and exiting strategies of collectively pegging to US dollar in East Asia. And a conclusion is made that EANECs should exit from collectively pegging to US dollar and turn to regional exchange rates coordination.
This paper consists of introduction, the body and the conclusion. Except the introduction and the conclusion, there are 7 parts in the whole paper. Part One reviews the limitation of international currency regimes on choice of exchange rate regimes. International monetary system basically regulates international exchange rates arrangements and national exchange rate regimes choices.
Part Two summarizes developing countries preference to pegging regimes under post Bretton Woods System. Recently new theories and new empirical test methods all prove the desirability of EANECs pegging to US dollar.
Part Three analyzes the inner stable mechanism, namely "Balance of Financial Terror" (BFT) behind the collectively pegging to dollar. It is by BFT that US is lying in capital flow from EANECs to narrow its huge current account imbalance. BFT, in essence, is Nash equilibriums of non-cooperative gaming between USA and EANECs and among EANECs themselves. As the important parts in EANECs' developing strategies, the collectively pegging to US dollar system is proved to generate active performance in both domestic and world levels.
Part Four compares several typical cases of pegging to US dollar in the history: the adjustable pegging to dollar under Bretton Woods Systems, Latin American newly emerging countries' pegging to dollar and EANECs' pegging to dollar. The regimes of pegging to US dollar in EANECs under post Bretton Woods Systems have sole characteristics.
Part Five explores the sustainability of collectively pegging to US dollar under BFT. The following facts illustrate that BFT is not sustainable. Firstly, US's persistent huge current account deficits and East Asian increasing current account surpluses have menaced the global economic balance. Secondly, the positive performance of pegging system has turned to be negative and hampered further development in EANECs. And lastly, major currencies fluctuate severely, which makes the regime of pegging to US dollar in EANECs extremely instable.
Part Six designs the strategies of exiting from collectively pegging to US dollar in East Asia. This paper suggests that based on theory of soft exchange rates target, regional exchange coordination mean that EANECs peg to a similar currency basket, so that this region would realize stable regional exchange rates, getting rid of the shadow of BFT and realizing advancing regional monetary co-operation in East Asia.
Part Seven goes back to the relationship between China's reforming of RMB regime and regional exchange rates coordination in East Asia. It would be mutual benefits in reforming regime of RMB in the summer, 2005 and regional exchange rates coordination in East Asia.
In a word, this paper has the following breakthrough.
Firstly, getting over the problem of insolating the research exchange rate regimes, this paper tries to combine the choice of exchange rate regimes in EANECs with the current international monetary system. Considering the unfairness in international monetary system, the fact that EANECs choose pegging to US dollar regime is desired at a certain degree. However as the conditions change, collectively pegging to US dollar can't be compatible with the current international monetary system, which causes EANECs burdened overdue responsibility in global economic imbalance. Obviously, one country can't resolve the regime choice dilemma by itself when the current international currency regime will not reform immediately.
Secondly, trying to analyze the inner stable mechanism of EANECs collectively pegging to US dollar - BFT by using game theories . There are two stage games in BFT. The first is the game of Prisoner' Dilemma among 9 EANECs. It is uncooperativeness among the 9 economies which gives rise to they peg to US dollar collectively. The other is Stackelberg competition between US and EANECs. Under the regimes of collectively pegging to US dollar which is the result of uncooperative game, US can cheaply seize enough natural resources, technology and capital via current account deficits. Taking this advantage, US initiates action firstly and makes credible menace to EANECs. This constitutes the uncooperative game between US and EANECs.
Thirdly, empirical tests are used to test de facto pegging to US dollar, performance of this regime and the effect of fluctuation between major currencies in East Asian newly emerging countries (EANECs). This paper does not use the work of other economists directly. On the contrary, it adds some new factors and eliminates some existing factors according to the requirements of research, to make an scientific conclusion.
Fourth, soft exchange rate target is suggested as the theoretic guide of regional exchange rate coordination in East Asia in short run. Almost all the current documents, however, prefer to senior cooperation in East Asian regional monetary cooperation which can't help solving the dilemma faced by EANECs in the global imbalance. Regional exchange rate coordination belongs to junior stage of regional monetary cooperation so that it doesn't require candidates scarify their domestic development to exchange convergence. As for soft exchange rates target, it sets the margins or calibrates central exchange rates flexibly which especially shows more feasibility. Concretely, the paper designs a project that every emerging economy in East Asia pegs to a similar basket consisting of US dollar, Euro, Japanese yen and home currency of the last period. Such basket shows every economy's foreign trade and capital flow, avoiding central exchange rate overshooting. What's more, candidate economy pegging similar basket but not common basket to endow each with some flexibility in exchange rate policy and reduce exiting risk of candidates at discretion.
Of course, because of the author's limitation in the research, there exist some drawbacks which are needed to resolve in the future. They are as follows:
1. Though this paper attempts to set international currency regimes as the background to discuss the problem of exchange rate regimes choices in developing countries, some new theories such as noise theory are omitted for they do not have close relation to international currency regimes. But to do so leave some places un-complete in summarizing exchange rate regimes choices.
2. When measuring the performance of pegging to US dollar in EANECs, several macro-indexes are computed but micro-indexes about domestic industries and firms are not considered.
3. Being a regional exchange rates arrangement, the soft exchange rates target need to be improved. For example, more persuasive models should be built to test the construction of currency basket and calibration of central exchange rates and to estimate the transit costs of each economy transits from pegging regimes to regional exchange rates coordination.
引文
1 See Frankel and Wei(1994), McKinnon(2003) ect.
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3 20世纪80年代，美国在解决对日本的高额贸易赤字问题时，重商主义在美国国会一直占上风。
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7 蒙代尔(Roben Mundell)在1999年荣获诺贝尔经济奖之后预言，在未来10年中将出现欧元区、美元区和“亚元”区，从而形成国际金融体制的稳定性三岛。
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27 Bayoumi, Tamin and Paul Mauro, 1999. The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement. IMF Working Paper WP/99/162
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31 同注释 14
32 McKinnon, Ronald 2000. The East Asian Dollar Standard: Life after Death. Economic Notes 29
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36 Williamson, John, 1999. The Case for a Common Basket Peg for East Asian Currencies. In S Collignon and J. Pisani-Ferry eds. Exchange Rate Policies in Asian Emerging Countries. Routledge, London
37 同注释 11。
38 Ogawa, Eiji and Takatoshi Ito, 2002. On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies No 16, 2002
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43 同注释20，第27页
44 转引自：崔孟修．汇率目标区理论及其研究进展．经济学动态．2000(5)．第61页
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46 See Hamada, Koichi, 1976. A Strategic Analysis of Monetary Interdependence. The Journal of Political Economy, vol. 84(4);——,1979. Macroeconomic Strategy Coordination under Alternative Exchange Rates. In Rudiger Dombusch and Jacob Frankel eds. International Economic Policy, the Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore
47 李富有．区域货币合作：理论、实践与亚洲的选择．中国金融出版社．2004年．第37页
48 刘振林．东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择研究．中国经济出版社．2006年．第96页
49 Oudiz, Gilles, Jeffery Sachs, Olivier Blanchard, et al.,1984. Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1984(1)
50 Canzoneri, Matthew and Anna Gray, 1985. Monetary Policy Games and the Consequences of Non-Cooperative Behavior. International Economic Review, Vol. 26(3)
51 Canzoneri, Matthew and Dale Henderson, 1991. Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies: A Game-Theoretic Approach. The MIT Press
52 李雪松．博弈论与国际货币政策协调．中国金融出版社．2000年．第46页
53 转引自：高松涛．国际金融体系重构研究．经济科学出版社．2002年．第24页
54 Loisel, Oliver and Philippe Martin, 2001. Coordination, Cooperation, Contagion and Currency Crisis. Journal of International Economics, Vol.53 No.2
55 Corsetti, Giancarlo and Paolo Pesenti, 2001. International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy. NBER Working Paper w8230
56 Obsffeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117 (2)
57 Bordo, Michael, 2003. Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective. IMF working paper WP/03/160, PP10-11 and P15
58 Giovannini, Alberto, 1989. How do Fixed Exchange-rate Regimes Work: The Evidence from the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and the EMS. In Marvin Miller, Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes eds. Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management. Center for Economic Policy ResearchLondon. PP13-46
59 Bordo, Michael, 1993.The Gold Standard Bretton Woods and Other Monetary Regimes: An Historical Appraisal. NBER working paper 4310, P2
60 许少强．货币一体化概论．复旦大学出版社．2004年．第15页
61 Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System. NBER working paper 4141
62 Corden, Max, 1972. Monetary Integration. Essays in International Finance. Wol. 93. Princeton: Princeton University Press
63 Maurice Obstfeld, 1992. The Adjustment Mechanism. CEPR Working Paper No. 648
64 (日)福井博夫著．宛金章译．国际金融与经营环境．中央编译出版社．2005年．第210页
65 Schwartz, Anna, 1986. Alternative Monetary Regimes: The Gold Standard. In Colin Campbell and William Dougan eds, Alternative Monetary Regimes.The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore
66 Bayoumi ,Tamin and Barry Eichengreen, 1992. Economic Performance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Historical Evidence. University of California at Berkeley
67 同注释55，第5—6页
1 罗纳德·麦金农．危机过后东亚美元标准的复兴：对高频率钉住汇率的一种诠释．来自约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨，沙希德·尤素福主编．东亚奇迹的反思．中国人民大学出版社．2003年．第201页
2 Frieden, Jeffry and Ernesto Stein, 2001. The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Latin America: An Analytical Overview. In Jeffry Frieden and Emesto Stein ed., The Currency Game: Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, P4
3 中间汇率制度的范围与软钉住汇率制度范围重合。
4 王俊方，郭春松．“中间制度消失论”的争议及评析．农村金融研究．2005(9)．第34-35页
5 Williamson, John, 1999. Are Intermediate Regimes Vanishing? Speech given at the international conference on "Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Market Economies". Tokyo, Japan, Dec. 1999
6 张志超．汇率政策新共识与“中间制度消失论”．世界经济．2002(12)．第17页
7 Calvo, Guillermo and Frederic Mishkin, 2003. The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Countries. NBER working paper 9808, P9
8 Wagner, Helmut, 2000.Which Exchange Rate Regimes in an Era of High Capital Mobility? North American Journal of Economics and Finance 11 (2000)
9 Taglioni,Daria, 2002. Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence. Econmomie Internationale 1/2
10 ASEM.Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Economies. Discussion paper jointly prepared by French and Japanese Staff for the Asia and European Finance Ministers' Meeting in Kobe, Japan, Jan. 2001
11 Williamson, John,1991. Advice on the Choice of an Exchange Rate Policy. In E. M. Claassen, ed., Exchange Rate Policy in Developing and Post-socialist Countries. San Francisco: ICS Press
12 Husain, Aasim, 2006. To Peg or Not to Peg: A Template for Assessing the Nobler. IMF working paper No.WP/06/54.P6
13 同注释12，第9页
14 Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2000. Fix or Flex? Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in an Era of Global Capital Mobility. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 11 (2000), P 180
15 Mussa, Michael, Paul Masson and Alexander Jadresic, et.el, 2000. Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy. IMF Occasional Paper No. 193, PP23—24
16 Duttagupta, Rupa, Gilda Fernandez and Cem Karacadag, 2004. From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving toward Exchange Rate Flexibility. IMF Working Paper WP/04/126. P25
17 Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. Chinese Currency Controversies. www.emlab.berkeley.edu/users/eichengr/research/asiancurrencies7jun904.pdf.P5
18 Sebastian, Edwards, 2000. Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention. Paper presented at the NBER conference on "Economic and Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies". USA Oct. 19-21,2000
19 何帆，邓宝凌．退出钉住汇率制的最佳时机与步骤．来自：余永定，何帆主编．人民币悬念．中国青年出版社．2004年．第155—157页
20 Calvo, Guillermo and Carmen Reinhart, 2000. Fear of Floating. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117(2)
21 Fritz-Krockow, Bernhard and Emilia Jurzyk,2004.Will You Buy My Peg? The Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Trade.IMF Working Paper WP/04/165, P12
22 Hausmann, Ricardo, Ugo Panizza and Ernesto Stein, 2001. Why do Countries Float the Way They Float. Journal of Development Economics 66
23 发展中国家对外举债一般是以美元进行，所以称之为债务美元化，不排除以日元、欧元等国际货币举借外债的情形。
24 所谓“荷兰病”指，由于本币巨幅升值，导致出口竞争力丧失，出口多样化受挫。
25 Calvo, Guillermo and Frederic Mishkin, 2003.The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries.NBER Working Paper 9808
26 Eichengreen, Barry and Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility. NBER Working Paper 7418
27 Flandreau, Marc and Natath Sussman, 2003. Old Sins: Exchange Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century. CEPR Discussion Paper No.4248
28 Eichengreen, Barry, Ricardo Hausmann and Ugo Panizza, 2003. Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin.NBER working paper 10036
29 McKinnon, Ronald, and Gunther Schabl, 2004.The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating and Original Sin. Review of Development Economics, Vol.8
30 McKinnon, Ronald, 2004. The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue. International Finance Vol. 7(2)
31 Levy-Yayati, Eduardo and Federico Sturzenegger, 2005. Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds vs. Words. European Economic Review 2005(49)
32 Masson, Paul, 2001. Exchange Rate Regime Transitions. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 64
33 Bénassy-Quéré,, Agnès and Benit Coeurè, 2000.Big or Small Currencies: the Regional Connection. CEPII Working Paper 2000-09
34 Rogoff, Kenneth, Aasim Husain and Ashoka Mody, etc, 2003. Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes. IMF Working Paper WP/03/243, P5 and P25
35 Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-1998 Currency Crisis. Monetary and Economic Studies December 2002, P 179
36 梅新育．固本培元——从亚洲债券基金看东亚金融合作发展．国际贸易．2003(8)．第52—53页
37 See Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber, 2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System. International Journal of Finance and Economics 9
38 转引自：张志超．汇率政策新共识与“中间制度消失论”．世界经济．2002(12)．第20页
39 根据美联储公布的汇率数据计算(http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/current/)
1 McKinnon, Ronalcd, 2000. The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life after Death? Economic Notes 29, No. 1
2 印尼一直没有从危机的打击中恢复过来，危机后印尼卢比大大放松了与美元的密切关系。而马来西亚却进一步转向更加严格的钉住，在1998年9月后公开将林吉特对美元的双边汇率固定下来。
3 Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès, 1996. Exchange Rate Regimes and Policies in Asia. CEPII Working Paper No. 96-07,P8
5 Hernández, Leonardo and Peter Montiel, 2003. Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries: Filling in the "Hollow Middle"? Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17(2003), P343
6 丁剑平．汇率波动与亚洲的经济增长．世界经济．2003(7)．第17页
7 同注释 5
8 Reinhart, Carmen and Kenneth Rogoff, 2004.The Modem History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.119
9 同注释6，P16
10 Frankel, Jeffrey and Wei Shang-jin, 1994. Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies. In Ito, T. and A. Krueger, eds. Maccroeconomic Linkange: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows. University of Chicago Press
11 Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-98 Currency Crisis. Monetary and Economic Studies Vol. 20, No. S-1, P172
12 河合正弘．货币危机与东亚汇率安排．来自：杨国栋主编．国际货币金融体系与东亚．天津人民出版社．2000年
13 数据采集：美联储：http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/current/; IMF: http://ifs.apdi.net/imf/logon.aspx
14 Gregston, Brent, 2004. My Currency, Your Problem. www.worldpress.org/Americas/1993.cfm. Dec. 11, 2004
15 资料来源：美国经济分析局(www.bea.gov/newreleases/national)
16 (日)福井博夫著．宛金章译．国际金融与经营环境．中央编译出版社．2005年．第53页
17 Truman, Edwin, 2005. Postponing Global Adjustment. IIE working paper No. WP 05-6, P18
18 Beams, Nick ,2004. US dollar slide increases global tensions, http://www.wsws.org/ardcles/2004/nov2004. 8 Nov., 2004
19 克里斯·贾尔斯，安德鲁·鲍尔斯．亮点无法掩盖岌岌可危的平衡．英国《金融时报》中文网，www.FTchinese.com.2005年12月1日．
20 同注释17。
21 靳玉英．泰国、韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚四国现行汇率制度分析．国际金融研究．2001(9)．第36页
22 See Ogawa, Eiji and Takatoshi Ito, 2002. On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 16
23 Mann, Catherine, 2005. Breaking Up is Hard to Do. CESifo Forum 1/2005. P22
24 (德)格哈德．伊宁著，杨伟国译．货币政策理论——博弈方法导论．社会科学文献出版社．2002年．第346页
25 Blanchard, Olivier, Francesco Giavazzi and Filipa Sa, 2005. International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1 2005
26 Felipe, Jesus, Kristine Kintanar and Joseph Lim,2006. Asia's Current Account Surplus: Saving Glut or Investment Drought? Asian Development Review, Vol.23, No. 1, P23
27 万志宏．东亚货币合作的经济基础研究．中国商务出版社．2004年．第192页
28 戴金平，万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年．第56页
29 同注释11
30 Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès and Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2003. Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China. CEPII, Working Paper No. 2003-21
31 McKinnon, Ronald, 2000. On the Periphery of the International Dollar Standard: Canada, Latin America and East Asia. The North American Journal of Economies and Finace, Vol. 11, Issue 2
32 Ohno, Kenichi, 1999. Exchange Rate Management in Developing Asia: Reassessment of the Pre-crisis Soft Dollar Zone. ADB Institute Working Paper Series, No.1
33 同注释12，P46
34 伊藤隆敏，小川英治，佐佐木百合．东亚区域性货币体系．来自杨国栋主编．国际货币金融体系与东亚．天津人民出版社．2000年
35 Wolfgan，Manfred著．韩朝华译．制度经济学：社会秩序与公共政策．商务印书馆．2000年．第34页
36 所谓“真实”即通胀调整的，“有效”即贸易加权的意思
37 同注释5，P351
38 物理学的引力定律基本内容是，两个物体之间的重力引力与这两个物体的质量成正比，与它们之间的距离成反比。
39 Tinbergen, Jan, 1962. Shaping the World Economy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund
40 Fritz-Krockow, Bernhard and Emilia Jurzyk, 2004.Will You Buy My Peg? The Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Yrade.IMF Working Paper WP/04/165, P12
41 http://eomtrade.un.org/db/ce/ceSearch.aspx
42 Ghosh, Atish, Anne-Marie Gulde, Jonathan Ostry and Holger Wolf, 1997. Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? NBER Working Paper No.5874,P6
43 刘振林．东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择研究．中国经济出版社．2006年．第206页
44 Glick, Reuren, Michael Hutchson and Ramon Moreno, 1999. Is Pegging the Exchange Rate a Cure for Inflation? East Asian Experiences. In Richard Sweeney et al eds. Exchange-rate Policies for Emerging Market Economies. Westview Press, Colorado, 1999.
45 Kawai, Masahiro and Shinji Takagi, 2000. Proposed Strategy for a Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement in Post-crisis East Asia. Wold Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2503. P18
1 See Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau Peter Garber, 2003, An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System, NBER Working Paper 9971;————,2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System: Alive and Well. Deutshche Bank Global Markets Research, Dec. 2004;————,2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System. International Journal of Finance and Economics 9
2 Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-landau and Peter Garber,2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System. International Journal of Finance and Economics 9, P309
3 当时罗斯福政府将黄金的价格从每盎司20.67美元提高到每盎司35美元。
4 Bordo, Michael, 1993. The Gold Standard Bretton Woods and Other Monetary Regimes: an Historical Appraisal. NBER working paper 4310, P33
6 Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau Peter Garber, 2004. Direct Investment, Rising Real Wages and the Absorption of Excess Labor in the Periphery. NBER Working Paper 10626, P13
7 Obstfeld, Maurice, Kenneth Rogoff and Richard Cooper, 2005. Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Issue 1, P70
8 Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods. NBER Working Paper 10497, PP4-5
9 戴金平、万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年．第4页
10 同注释6，第3-4页
11 Robini, Nouriel and Brad Setster, 2005. Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? Presentation for conference on "The Revived Bretton Woods System: A New Paradigm For Asian Decelopment?" Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciso.P4
12 Shinji Takagi, 2004. Capital Account Liberalization: Lessons from Two Giants and Four Tigers. In Masahiro Kawai edo Financial Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia. Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, 2004, P108
13 河合正弘．货币危机与东亚汇率安排．来自杨国栋主编．国际货币金融体系与东亚．天津人民出版社．2000年．第35页
14 黄志龙．“汇率制度两极化”：拉美国家的经验研究．拉丁美洲研究．2004(2)．第52页
15 http://www.ebtime.net/stat/guoji/moxige/io200603.htm
16 Busse, Matthias, Carsten Hefeker and Georg Koopmann, 2004. Between Two Poles: Matching Trade and Exchange Rate Regimes in Mercosur. HWWA Discussion Paper 301, P6
17 Wise, Carol and Riordan Roett eds, 2000. Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, P11
18 厄瓜多尔于2000年9月、萨尔瓦于2001年1月已经分别正式美元化。
19 转引自：江时学．拉美国家的汇率制度与美元化．世界经济．2004(5)．第45页
20 所谓非正式美元化，即本国居民非正式地使用一种外国货币，尽管这种使用没有得到政府的承认。半正式美元指本国货币和美元同时合法流通。
21 转引自：江时学．金融全球化与发展中国家的经济安全．社会科学出版社．2004年．第120页
22 数据来源同注释17，第8-9页
23 杨柳勇．国际收支结构研究．中国金融出版社．2003年．第71页
24 数据来源同注释23，第71-72页
25 陈志昂，王义中．基于金融脆弱性的发展中国家新重商主义．浙江学刊．2005(1)．第184-185页
26 中国增长最快，平均增长率高达14.4％；最慢的印尼，其平均增长率也在6.0％以上。
27 Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2000. Fix or Flex? Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in an Era of G|obal Capital Mobility. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 11(2000), P 187
28 同注释21第17页
29 Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in Latin America and East Asia. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 2
30 数据来源: Inter-American Development Bank, 2001. Economic and Social Progress in Latin America 2001 Report. P13
1 Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau Peter Garber, 2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System: Alive and Well. Deutshche Bank Global Markets Research, Dec. 2004
2 Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber, 2003. An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System. NBER Working Paper 9971
3 Pingfan Hong, 2001. Global Implications of the United States Trade Deficit Adjustment.DESA discussion paper No. 17, P3
4 戴金平，万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年．第177页
5 McCauiey, Robert, 2003. Capital Flows in East Asia since the 1997 Crisis. BIS Quarterly Review, June 2003.P46
6 陈志昂．新“特里芬悖论”与人民币汇率．来自张礼9即主编，汇率制度变革——国际经验与中国：选择．中国金融出版社．2005年．第190页
7 Krugman, Paul, 1985. Is the Strong Dollar Sustainable?. Prospects and Policy Options. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
8 Greenspan, Alan, 2004. The Evolving U.S. Payments Imbalance and Its Impact on Europe and the Rest of the World. Cato Journal 24 (Spring-Summer)
9 (日)福井博夫著．宛金章译．国际金融与经营环境．中央编译出版社．2005年．第20—21页
10 Mann, Catherine, 1999.Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable? Washington, Institute for International Economics. P 151
11 Williamson, John, 1983. The Exchange Rate System. Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC
12 Gramlich, Edward, 2004. Budget and Trade Deficits: Linked, Both Worrisome in the Long Run, but not Twins. www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches. May 14, 2004
13 Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Iss. 1, PP79-80
14 Truman, Edwin, 2005. Postponing Global Adjustment. IIE working paper No. WP 05-6, P6
15 Felipe,Jesuss, Kristine Kintanar and Joseph Lim, 2006. Asia's Current Account Surplus: Savings Glut or Investment Drought? Asian Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, PP19-20
16 数据来源同注释13，第55页
17 杨柳勇．国际收支结构研究．中国金融出版社．2003年．第57-58页
18 Summers, Lawrrence, 2004. The United States and the Global Adjustment Process. Speech at the Third Annual Stavros S. Niarchos Lecture. Institute for International Economics, Washington
19 Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2004.The Need in Bilateral Exchange Rates. In Fred Bergsten and John Williamson edited, Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What? Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., P37
20 Geither, Timothy,2006.U.S. Monetary Policy in the Global Financial Environment. Remarks at the Japan Society Corporate Luncheon in New York City. www.ny.frb.org. March 9, 2006
21 A．J．Makin著．曹和平等译校．国际金融与宏观经济．北京大学出版社．2005年版．第78页
22 Roubini, Nouriel and Brad Setser, 2004. The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalance. mimeo, New York University, P6
23 同注释9，第11页
24 约翰·威廉姆森．汇率制度选择的国际经验及其对中国的借鉴愿意．来自张礼卿主编：汇率制度变革．中国金融出版社．第10页
25 余永定．全球收支不平衡与中国对策．国际金融研究．2007(1)．第22页
26 数据来源：根据ADB key indictors计算。
27 Lee, Jong-Wha, Warwick McKibbin and Yung Chul Park, 2006. Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures.The World Economy, Vol.29 Issue 3, P284
28 数据来源：Yoshitomi, Masaru, Li-gang Liu and Willem Thorbecke, 2005. East Asia's Role in Resolving the New Global Imbalances. http://www.rieti.go.jp/users/neat/pdf/03-analyst_oaper.pdf
29 Higgins, Macthew and Thomas Klitgaard,2004. Reserve Accumulation: Implications for Global Capital Flows and Financial Markets. Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 10.
30 同注释27，第14页
31 公式推导过程，参见：聂丹．可调整的钉住汇率：钉住与调整．上海人民出版社．2002年．第212页
32严美姬．东亚汇率制度的博弈分析．亚太经济．2005(2)．第2页
33Ito, Takatoshi, Eiji Ogawa and Yuri Nagataki Sasaki, 1998. How Did the Dollar Fail in Asia? NBER Working Paper 6729, PP35-36
34Goldstein, Morris and Philip Turner, 2004.Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets. Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, P2
35参见：李扬．汇率制度改革必须高度关注货币错配风险．财经理论与实践．2005(4)
36赵伟，杨会臣．钉住汇率制度的可持续性：一个基于汇率预期的分析框架．世界经济．2005(7)
37 同注释34，第4页
38 Factset, www.economist.com
39 IMF. World Economic Outlook, April 2006. chapterl, P28
40 Mann, Catherine, 2004. Managing Exchange Rates: Achievement of Global Re-balancing or Evidence of Global Co-dependency? Business Economics, July 2004, P26
41 http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/2OO7/ADO-growth-rate.pdf
42 http://www.bea.gov/newreleases/national/gdp/gdp406.pdf
43罗伯特·蒙代尔．国际货币制度改革．来自罗伯特·蒙代尔，保罗·扎克．货币稳定与经济增长．中国金融出版社．2004年．第12页
44 同注释42，第16页
45 Esquivel,Gerardo and Felipe Larranin, 2002. The Impact of G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility on Developing Countries. G-24 Discussion Paper NO. 16, P1
46 同注释9，第208页
47 Ohno, Kenichi, 1999. Exchange Rate Management in Developing Asia: Reassessment of the Pre-crisis Soft Dollar Zone. ADBI Working Paper 1, Tokyo, P11
48 See Kwan, Chi Hung, 1998a. The Yen, the Yuan and the Asian Currency Crisis: Changing Forune between Japan and China. http://www.tcf.or.jp/data/19981015-16_CH_Kwan.pdf——,1998b. Asia's Currency Crisis from the Perspective of Yen and Yuan. Iwanami, Tokyo
49 李平，范跃进．G—3汇率波动对发展中国家和地区的货币稳定的影响．世界经济．2004(10)．第32页
50 Esquivel, Gerardo and Felipe Larranin, 2002. The Impact of G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility on Developing Countries. G-24 Discussion Paper No. 16
51 数据采集：美联储(http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5a/), IMF(http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/param_rms_mth.aspx), BIS(http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/broad0703.xls)
52 Yagci, Fahrettin 2001. Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing Countries. IMF Africa Region Working Paper No. 16, P22
53 Goldstein, Morris, 2002. Managed Floating Plus. Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.,P11
1 Bènnasy-Quèrè, Agnès and Benit Coeurè, 2000. Big or Small Currencies: the Regional Connection. CEPII Working Paper 2000-09
2 尤马斯阿奎编辑．改革全球金融体系问题与建议．第三世界网络出版．2003年．第8页
3 Ohno, Kenichi, 1999. Exchange Rate Management in Developing Asia: Reassessment of the Pre-crisis Soft Dollar Zone. ADBI Working, Paper 1. Tokvo. P9
4 参见：戴金平，程义全．汇率合作的汇率稳定效应：一个简单的分析框架．世界经济．2001(9)
5 Ogawa, Eiji and Takatoshi lto, 2002. On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 16
6 货币合作的初级阶段为地区性危机紧急援救机制，最高级阶段为货币联盟。
7 Choi, Changkyu and Deok Ryong Yoon, 2004. Costs and Benefits of Intra-regional Exchange Rate Stability among China, Japan and Korea. In Masahiro Kawai ed. Financial Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia. Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, 2004, P4
8 Frankel, Jeffrey and Andrew Rose, 1996. The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. NBER Working Paper No.5700
9 Wei, Shang-Jin and Changkyu Choi, 2002. Currency Blocs and Cross-Border Investment. http://myhome.shinbiro.corn/-ckchoi/bloc.pdf
10 资料来源：IMF, international finance statistics
11 Henning, Randall, 2002. East Asian Financial Cooperation. Institute for International Economics 68. P6
12同注释7，第49页
13戴金平，万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年．第138页
14罗纳德·麦金农，甘瑟·施纳布尔．中国是东亚地区的稳定力量还是通缩压力之源?余永定，何帆主编．人民币悬念．中国青年出版社．2004年．第27页
15根据ADB公布的相关数据计算(http://www.aric.adb.org/indicator.php)。
16卢峰．中国国际收支双顺差现象研究．世界经济．2006(11)．第7页
17根据 External Direct Investment of Hong Kong in 2004(http://www.pprd.org.cn/hkenglish/Statistics)计算
18 Bayoumi, Tamin and Barry Eichengreen, 1994. One Money or Many? Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World. Princeton Studies in International Finance, No. 76
19何帆，张斌，张明．对《清迈协议》的评估及改革建议．http://www.doctor-cafe.com/detaill.asp?id=3115
20万志宏．东亚货币合作的经济基础研究．中国商务出版社，2004年．第180页
21同注释13，第70页
22(日)小川英治．创建东亚统一货币篮的可能性．国际金融研究．2004(6)．第78页
23 根据 IMF, International Financial Statistics 计算 (http://ifs.aodi.net/imf/logon.aspx)
24同注释13，第70页
25 Bénassy -Quèrè, Agnès and Benit Coeurè, 2000. Big or Small Currencies: the Regional Connection.CEPII Working Paper 2000-09
26 Lewis, Jeffrey, 1999. Asian vs. International: Structuring an Asian Monetary Fund. Harvard Asia Quarterly, Vol.Ⅲ, No.4
27 Eichengreen, Barry and Paul Mauro, 2000. On regional monetary arrangement for ASEAN. CEPR discussion paper 2411
28 Hamada, Koichi, 1998. The Choice of International Monetary Regimes in a Context of Repeated Games. Open Economies Review 9(1998), P433
29 Yagci, Fahrettin 2001. Choice &Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing Countries. IMF Africa Region Working Paper No.16
30 McKinnon, Ranolad, 2000a. On the Periphery of the International Dollar Standard: Canada, Latin America and East Asia. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 11, Issue 2
31 McKinnon, Ranolad, 2000b. The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life after Death? Economic Notes, 29(1), P117
32 Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-1998 Currency Crisis. Monetary and Economic Studies December 2002, P194
33 姚枝仲．不对称竞争压力与人民币的亚洲战略．世界经济与政治．2004(7)．第35页
34 See Kwan, Chi Hung, 2000. The Economics of a Yen Bloc. The Brooking Institution and Nomura Research Institute
35 资料来源：根据IMF Statistics Department COFER database计算(http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/index.htm)。
36 河合正弘．货币危机与东亚汇率安排．白杨国栋主编．国际货币金融体系与东亚．天津人民出版社．2000年．第35页
37 Williamsorl,JOhn,1999.The Case for a Common Basket Peg for East Asian Currencies.In Stefan Collignon et al,eds.:Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Asian Countries[M].London and New York:Routledge,1999
38 有效汇率是对所有货币按贸易权重计算的平均汇率。
39张斌．东亚区域汇率合作：中国视角．世界经济．2004(10)．第26页
40参见注释5和注释32
41转引自：许少强．货币一体化概论．复旦大学出版社．2004年．第207—208页
42Hefeker, Carsten and Andreas Nabor, 2005. China's Role in East-Asian Monetary Integration. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 10(2005)
43 丁一兵，李晓．关于东亚区域货币合作的研究：文献综述．当代亚太．2004(6)．第22页
44 同注释11，第52页
45日本财政部，2000：8
46数据来源：Henning, C. Randall, 2002. East Asian Financial Cooperation. Institute for International Economics. P20
47同注释7，第26页
48同注释11，第36页
49参见注释7。
50 See Forbes, Catherine and Paul Kofman, 2000. Bayesian Soft Target Zones. Monash University Working Paper 4/2000, Austfilia
51 Wren-Lewis, Simon,1997. The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime. The Economic Journal 107
52 Bartolini, Leonardo and Alessandro Prati, 1997. Soft versus Hard Targets for Intervention. Economic Policy, no. 24(April), P16
53 同注释32，第193-194页
54 Kofman, Paul, Albert de Vaal and Casper G. de Vries, 1993. Fixing Soft Margins. Journal of lnternational Economics 34(1993), P359
55同注释52，第16页
56同注释32，第197页
57李富有．区域货币合作：理论、实践与亚洲的选择．中国金融出版社．2004年．第279页
58同沣释25
59Bénassy -Quéré, Agnés, 1997. Optimal Peg for Asian Countries. CEPII Working Paper No. 97-14
60栾雅钧．东南亚金融危机的汇率制度分析及最优汇率制度探索．亚太经济2000(5)．第11页
61同注释41，第139页
62 同注释3
63 Truman, Edwin, 2005. Postponing Global Adjustment. IIE Working Paper No. WP 05-6
64 Williamson, John, 2000. Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, P31
65 参见注释31
66 Bordo, Nichael, 1993. The Gold Standard Bretton Woods and Other Monetary Regimes: an Historical Appraisal. NBER Working Paper 4310, P4
67 Busse, Matthias, Carsten Hefeker and Georg Koopmann, 2004. Between Two Poles: Matching Trade and Exchange Rate Regimes in Mercosur. HWWA Discussion Paper 301, P13
68 同注释31，第4页
1罗纳德·麦金农，甘瑟·施纳布尔．中国是东亚地区的稳定力量还是通缩压力之源?余永定，何帆主编．人民币悬念．中国青年出版社．2004年．第32页
2董力为等编著．人民币汇率现实问题的争论与探讨．中国财政经济出版社．2004年．第66页
3本模型参考了 Welch 和 McLeod 建立的模型。具体参见 Welch, John and Darryt McLeod,1993. The Costs and Benefits of Fixed Dollar Exchange Rates in Latin America. Economic Review, First Quarter, 1993
4罗奇．美国别寻找中国当替罪羊．http://newsl.jrj.com.cn/news/2006-10-26/000001733337.html.2006年10月26日
5 Campa, Jose and Linda Goldberg, 2002. Exchange Rate Pass-through into Import Prices: a Macro or Micro Phenomenon. NBER Working Paper 8943
6 Marazzi, Mario, Nathan Sheets and Robert Vigfusson, 2005. Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices. International Finance Discussion Paper No. 833. the Federal Reserve, U.S.
7 公式具体推导过程，参见：罗忠洲，廖发达．汇率对出口价格传递率的经验研究：以1971—2003年的日本为例．世界经济．2005(11)．第27页
8数据采集：BLS: www.bls.gov/pub/supple/simpim.ippsharm.tex; BEA: www.bea.gov/natioanal/xls/gdplev.xls,中国人民银行： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/gofile.asp?file=2006S14.htm FDS:http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/current/
10 McGregor．中国出口商品获得更高利润．英国《金融时报》中文网(www.ftchinese.com/sc/story.jsp?).2007—2—27
11数据来源：中国商务部http://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/trade
12根据中国外汇管理局公布的月度汇率计算(http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe/tjsj/tjsj_list.jsp?)。
13数据来源：Chinese Puzzle.www.economist.com.Aug.11,2005
14数据来源：Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès and Lahreche-Revil, 2003. Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China. CEPII, Working Paper No. 2003-21, P19
15转引自：Hefeker, Carsten and Andreas Nabor, 2005. China's Role in East-Asian Monetary Integration. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 10(2005), P159
16 Robini, Nouriel and Brad Setster, 2005. Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? Presentation for conference on "The Revived Bretton Woods System: A New Paradigm For Asian Decelopment?" Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciso.P36
17 同注释1，第32页
18 姚枝仲．不对称竞争压力与人民币的亚洲战略．世界经济与政治．2004(7)．第35页
19 同注释13，第24-25页
20 See Kwan (2001), McKinnon and Schnabl(2003)
21 Kwan, Chi-Hung, 2001. Yen Bloc: Toward Economic Integration in Asia. Washington DC
22 数据采集：日本财务省：www.boj.orjp/en/type/release/zuiji_new,data,美联储：http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/current/
24据ADB公布的数据计算(http://www.aric.adb.org/indicator.php)
25李瑶．非国际货币、货币国际化与资本项目可兑换．金融研究．2003(8)
26 万志宏．东亚货币合作的经济基础研究．中国商务出版社．2004年
27 Choi, Changkyu, 2002. The Benefits and Costs of an East Asian Currency Union. In Han Gwang Choo and Yunjong Wang eds. Currency Union in East Asia. Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, 2002
28 戴金平，万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年
29 Calvo, Guillermo and Carmen Reinhart, 2000. Fear of Floating. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117(2)
1刘振林．东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择研究．中国经济出版社．2006年．第83页
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3 20世纪80年代，美国在解决对日本的高额贸易赤字问题时，重商主义在美国国会一直占上风。
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7 蒙代尔(Roben Mundell)在1999年荣获诺贝尔经济奖之后预言，在未来10年中将出现欧元区、美元区和“亚元”区，从而形成国际金融体制的稳定性三岛。
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31 同注释 14
32 McKinnon, Ronald 2000. The East Asian Dollar Standard: Life after Death. Economic Notes 29
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36 Williamson, John, 1999. The Case for a Common Basket Peg for East Asian Currencies. In S Collignon and J. Pisani-Ferry eds. Exchange Rate Policies in Asian Emerging Countries. Routledge, London
37 同注释 11。
38 Ogawa, Eiji and Takatoshi Ito, 2002. On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies No 16, 2002
39 李平、刘沛志：东亚地区货币合作过渡阶段的基本构想，世界经济与政治，2003(12)
40 许少强．货币一体化概论．复旦大学出版社．2004年．第207—208页
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5 Nurkse, Ragnar, 1944. International Currency Experience. League of Nations, Geneva
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7 转引自：董力为等编著．人民币汇率现实问题的争论与探讨．中国财政经济出版社．2004年．第286页
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10 所谓金融成熟，即开放和深度发展的金融市场、稳定的货币和财政政策等。
11 Bordo, Michael, 2003. Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective. IMF working paper WP/03/160. P23
12 Nilsson, Kristian and Lars Nilsson, 2000. Exchange Rate Regimes and Export Performance of Developing Countries. The World Economy, Vol. 23, No. 3
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14 Wolf, Holger, 2001. Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Consequences. NBER Working Paper
15 名义冲击即货币冲击，如货币供给或货币需求的变化等。实际冲击指需求或供给的变动、偏好转移、价格相对变化等真实性因素的冲击。
16 See De Grauwe, Paul, 1997.The Economics of Monetary Integration. Oxford University Press, London; Morris Goldstein, 2002. Managed Floating Plus. Institute for International Economics, Washington DC
17 Krugman, Paul, 1989. Target Zones with Limited Reserve. mimeo, the MIT press
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21 Williamson, John, 2000. Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, PP31-33
22 See Kydland, Finn and Edwards Prscott,1977. Rules rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans. Journal of Political Economy 85(3)
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25 同注释17，第21页
26 See Mundell, Robert, 1961.A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. American Economic Review Vol.51; Ingram, James, 1962. Regional Payments Mechanisms: The Case of Puerto Rico. University of North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill; Kawai, Masahiro, 1987. Optimum Currency Areas. In J. Eatwell et al. eds., The New Palgrave: A dictionary of Economics. Vol. 3. New York: the Stockton Press
27 Willett, Thomas and Edward Tower, 1970. The Welfare Economies of International Adjustment. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 26 No.2
28 McKinnon, Ronald, 1963. Optimum Currency Areas. The American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No.4
29 Kenen, Peter, 1969. The Theory of Optimum Currency Area: An Eclectic View. in Robert Mundell ed, Monetary Problems of the International Economy, Chicago Press
30 Frankel, Jeffrey and Andrew Rose, 1997.The European Community as Optimum Currency Area. In Paul Welfens ed., European Monetary Integration,, New York
31 Fleming, Marcus, 1971. On Exchange Rate Unification. Economic Journal 81, 1971
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33 Krugrnan, Paul, 1990, Policy Problems of a Monetary Union. In E De Grauwe and L. Papademos eds., The European Monetary System in the 1990s, Longman, London and New York
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35 Frankel, Jeffrey and Andrew Rose, 1996. The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. NBER Working Paper 5700
36 Beine, Michel and Frédérie Docquier,1998. A Stochastic Model of an Optimum Currency Area. Open Economies Review 9
37 Krugrnan, Paul, 1991 .Target zones and exchange rate dynamics. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106
38 Miller, Marcus and Paul Weller, 1991. Currency Bands, Target Zones, and Price Flexibility. IMF Staff Papers, No. 38
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40 Williamson, John, 1985. The Exchange Rate System.Institute for International Economics, Washington
41 约翰·威廉姆森．汇率制度选择的国际经验及其对中国的借鉴意义．来自张礼卿主编．汇率制度变革．中国金融出版社．2005年．第14页
42 See Bartolini, Leonardo and Alessandro Prati, 1997. Soft versus Hard Targets for Intervention. Economic Policy, No. 24(April);——,1998. Soft Exchange Rate Bands and Speculative Attacks: Theory, and Evidence from ERM since August 1993. IMF Working Paper 98/156
43 同注释20，第27页
44 转引自：崔孟修．汇率目标区理论及其研究进展．经济学动态．2000(5)．第61页
45 戴维·里寇．国际政策协调．来自戴维·里维里思，克里斯·米尔纳主编．赵锡军，应惟伟译．国际货币经济学．中国税务出版社．2000年．第170页
46 See Hamada, Koichi, 1976. A Strategic Analysis of Monetary Interdependence. The Journal of Political Economy, vol. 84(4);——,1979. Macroeconomic Strategy Coordination under Alternative Exchange Rates. In Rudiger Dombusch and Jacob Frankel eds. International Economic Policy, the Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore
47 李富有．区域货币合作：理论、实践与亚洲的选择．中国金融出版社．2004年．第37页
48 刘振林．东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择研究．中国经济出版社．2006年．第96页
49 Oudiz, Gilles, Jeffery Sachs, Olivier Blanchard, et al.,1984. Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1984(1)
50 Canzoneri, Matthew and Anna Gray, 1985. Monetary Policy Games and the Consequences of Non-Cooperative Behavior. International Economic Review, Vol. 26(3)
51 Canzoneri, Matthew and Dale Henderson, 1991. Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies: A Game-Theoretic Approach. The MIT Press
52 李雪松．博弈论与国际货币政策协调．中国金融出版社．2000年．第46页
53 转引自：高松涛．国际金融体系重构研究．经济科学出版社．2002年．第24页
54 Loisel, Oliver and Philippe Martin, 2001. Coordination, Cooperation, Contagion and Currency Crisis. Journal of International Economics, Vol.53 No.2
55 Corsetti, Giancarlo and Paolo Pesenti, 2001. International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy. NBER Working Paper w8230
56 Obsffeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117 (2)
57 Bordo, Michael, 2003. Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective. IMF working paper WP/03/160, PP10-11 and P15
58 Giovannini, Alberto, 1989. How do Fixed Exchange-rate Regimes Work: The Evidence from the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and the EMS. In Marvin Miller, Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes eds. Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management. Center for Economic Policy ResearchLondon. PP13-46
59 Bordo, Michael, 1993.The Gold Standard Bretton Woods and Other Monetary Regimes: An Historical Appraisal. NBER working paper 4310, P2
60 许少强．货币一体化概论．复旦大学出版社．2004年．第15页
61 Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System. NBER working paper 4141
62 Corden, Max, 1972. Monetary Integration. Essays in International Finance. Wol. 93. Princeton: Princeton University Press
63 Maurice Obstfeld, 1992. The Adjustment Mechanism. CEPR Working Paper No. 648
64 (日)福井博夫著．宛金章译．国际金融与经营环境．中央编译出版社．2005年．第210页
65 Schwartz, Anna, 1986. Alternative Monetary Regimes: The Gold Standard. In Colin Campbell and William Dougan eds, Alternative Monetary Regimes.The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore
66 Bayoumi ,Tamin and Barry Eichengreen, 1992. Economic Performance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Historical Evidence. University of California at Berkeley
67 同注释55，第5—6页
1 罗纳德·麦金农．危机过后东亚美元标准的复兴：对高频率钉住汇率的一种诠释．来自约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨，沙希德·尤素福主编．东亚奇迹的反思．中国人民大学出版社．2003年．第201页
2 Frieden, Jeffry and Ernesto Stein, 2001. The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Latin America: An Analytical Overview. In Jeffry Frieden and Emesto Stein ed., The Currency Game: Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, P4
3 中间汇率制度的范围与软钉住汇率制度范围重合。
4 王俊方，郭春松．“中间制度消失论”的争议及评析．农村金融研究．2005(9)．第34-35页
5 Williamson, John, 1999. Are Intermediate Regimes Vanishing? Speech given at the international conference on "Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Market Economies". Tokyo, Japan, Dec. 1999
6 张志超．汇率政策新共识与“中间制度消失论”．世界经济．2002(12)．第17页
7 Calvo, Guillermo and Frederic Mishkin, 2003. The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Countries. NBER working paper 9808, P9
8 Wagner, Helmut, 2000.Which Exchange Rate Regimes in an Era of High Capital Mobility? North American Journal of Economics and Finance 11 (2000)
9 Taglioni,Daria, 2002. Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence. Econmomie Internationale 1/2
10 ASEM.Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Economies. Discussion paper jointly prepared by French and Japanese Staff for the Asia and European Finance Ministers' Meeting in Kobe, Japan, Jan. 2001
11 Williamson, John,1991. Advice on the Choice of an Exchange Rate Policy. In E. M. Claassen, ed., Exchange Rate Policy in Developing and Post-socialist Countries. San Francisco: ICS Press
12 Husain, Aasim, 2006. To Peg or Not to Peg: A Template for Assessing the Nobler. IMF working paper No.WP/06/54.P6
13 同注释12，第9页
14 Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2000. Fix or Flex? Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in an Era of Global Capital Mobility. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 11 (2000), P 180
15 Mussa, Michael, Paul Masson and Alexander Jadresic, et.el, 2000. Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy. IMF Occasional Paper No. 193, PP23—24
16 Duttagupta, Rupa, Gilda Fernandez and Cem Karacadag, 2004. From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving toward Exchange Rate Flexibility. IMF Working Paper WP/04/126. P25
17 Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. Chinese Currency Controversies. www.emlab.berkeley.edu/users/eichengr/research/asiancurrencies7jun904.pdf.P5
18 Sebastian, Edwards, 2000. Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention. Paper presented at the NBER conference on "Economic and Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies". USA Oct. 19-21,2000
19 何帆，邓宝凌．退出钉住汇率制的最佳时机与步骤．来自：余永定，何帆主编．人民币悬念．中国青年出版社．2004年．第155—157页
20 Calvo, Guillermo and Carmen Reinhart, 2000. Fear of Floating. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117(2)
21 Fritz-Krockow, Bernhard and Emilia Jurzyk,2004.Will You Buy My Peg? The Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Trade.IMF Working Paper WP/04/165, P12
22 Hausmann, Ricardo, Ugo Panizza and Ernesto Stein, 2001. Why do Countries Float the Way They Float. Journal of Development Economics 66
23 发展中国家对外举债一般是以美元进行，所以称之为债务美元化，不排除以日元、欧元等国际货币举借外债的情形。
24 所谓“荷兰病”指，由于本币巨幅升值，导致出口竞争力丧失，出口多样化受挫。
25 Calvo, Guillermo and Frederic Mishkin, 2003.The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries.NBER Working Paper 9808
26 Eichengreen, Barry and Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility. NBER Working Paper 7418
27 Flandreau, Marc and Natath Sussman, 2003. Old Sins: Exchange Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century. CEPR Discussion Paper No.4248
28 Eichengreen, Barry, Ricardo Hausmann and Ugo Panizza, 2003. Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin.NBER working paper 10036
29 McKinnon, Ronald, and Gunther Schabl, 2004.The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating and Original Sin. Review of Development Economics, Vol.8
30 McKinnon, Ronald, 2004. The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue. International Finance Vol. 7(2)
31 Levy-Yayati, Eduardo and Federico Sturzenegger, 2005. Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds vs. Words. European Economic Review 2005(49)
32 Masson, Paul, 2001. Exchange Rate Regime Transitions. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 64
33 Bénassy-Quéré,, Agnès and Benit Coeurè, 2000.Big or Small Currencies: the Regional Connection. CEPII Working Paper 2000-09
34 Rogoff, Kenneth, Aasim Husain and Ashoka Mody, etc, 2003. Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes. IMF Working Paper WP/03/243, P5 and P25
35 Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-1998 Currency Crisis. Monetary and Economic Studies December 2002, P 179
36 梅新育．固本培元——从亚洲债券基金看东亚金融合作发展．国际贸易．2003(8)．第52—53页
37 See Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber, 2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System. International Journal of Finance and Economics 9
38 转引自：张志超．汇率政策新共识与“中间制度消失论”．世界经济．2002(12)．第20页
39 根据美联储公布的汇率数据计算(http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/current/)
1 McKinnon, Ronalcd, 2000. The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life after Death? Economic Notes 29, No. 1
2 印尼一直没有从危机的打击中恢复过来，危机后印尼卢比大大放松了与美元的密切关系。而马来西亚却进一步转向更加严格的钉住，在1998年9月后公开将林吉特对美元的双边汇率固定下来。
3 Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès, 1996. Exchange Rate Regimes and Policies in Asia. CEPII Working Paper No. 96-07,P8
5 Hernández, Leonardo and Peter Montiel, 2003. Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries: Filling in the "Hollow Middle"? Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17(2003), P343
6 丁剑平．汇率波动与亚洲的经济增长．世界经济．2003(7)．第17页
7 同注释 5
8 Reinhart, Carmen and Kenneth Rogoff, 2004.The Modem History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.119
9 同注释6，P16
10 Frankel, Jeffrey and Wei Shang-jin, 1994. Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies. In Ito, T. and A. Krueger, eds. Maccroeconomic Linkange: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows. University of Chicago Press
11 Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-98 Currency Crisis. Monetary and Economic Studies Vol. 20, No. S-1, P172
12 河合正弘．货币危机与东亚汇率安排．来自：杨国栋主编．国际货币金融体系与东亚．天津人民出版社．2000年
13 数据采集：美联储：http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/current/; IMF: http://ifs.apdi.net/imf/logon.aspx
14 Gregston, Brent, 2004. My Currency, Your Problem. www.worldpress.org/Americas/1993.cfm. Dec. 11, 2004
15 资料来源：美国经济分析局(www.bea.gov/newreleases/national)
16 (日)福井博夫著．宛金章译．国际金融与经营环境．中央编译出版社．2005年．第53页
17 Truman, Edwin, 2005. Postponing Global Adjustment. IIE working paper No. WP 05-6, P18
18 Beams, Nick ,2004. US dollar slide increases global tensions, http://www.wsws.org/ardcles/2004/nov2004. 8 Nov., 2004
19 克里斯·贾尔斯，安德鲁·鲍尔斯．亮点无法掩盖岌岌可危的平衡．英国《金融时报》中文网，www.FTchinese.com.2005年12月1日．
20 同注释17。
21 靳玉英．泰国、韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚四国现行汇率制度分析．国际金融研究．2001(9)．第36页
22 See Ogawa, Eiji and Takatoshi Ito, 2002. On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 16
23 Mann, Catherine, 2005. Breaking Up is Hard to Do. CESifo Forum 1/2005. P22
24 (德)格哈德．伊宁著，杨伟国译．货币政策理论——博弈方法导论．社会科学文献出版社．2002年．第346页
25 Blanchard, Olivier, Francesco Giavazzi and Filipa Sa, 2005. International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1 2005
26 Felipe, Jesus, Kristine Kintanar and Joseph Lim,2006. Asia's Current Account Surplus: Saving Glut or Investment Drought? Asian Development Review, Vol.23, No. 1, P23
27 万志宏．东亚货币合作的经济基础研究．中国商务出版社．2004年．第192页
28 戴金平，万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年．第56页
29 同注释11
30 Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès and Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2003. Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China. CEPII, Working Paper No. 2003-21
31 McKinnon, Ronald, 2000. On the Periphery of the International Dollar Standard: Canada, Latin America and East Asia. The North American Journal of Economies and Finace, Vol. 11, Issue 2
32 Ohno, Kenichi, 1999. Exchange Rate Management in Developing Asia: Reassessment of the Pre-crisis Soft Dollar Zone. ADB Institute Working Paper Series, No.1
33 同注释12，P46
34 伊藤隆敏，小川英治，佐佐木百合．东亚区域性货币体系．来自杨国栋主编．国际货币金融体系与东亚．天津人民出版社．2000年
35 Wolfgan，Manfred著．韩朝华译．制度经济学：社会秩序与公共政策．商务印书馆．2000年．第34页
36 所谓“真实”即通胀调整的，“有效”即贸易加权的意思
37 同注释5，P351
38 物理学的引力定律基本内容是，两个物体之间的重力引力与这两个物体的质量成正比，与它们之间的距离成反比。
39 Tinbergen, Jan, 1962. Shaping the World Economy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund
40 Fritz-Krockow, Bernhard and Emilia Jurzyk, 2004.Will You Buy My Peg? The Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Yrade.IMF Working Paper WP/04/165, P12
41 http://eomtrade.un.org/db/ce/ceSearch.aspx
42 Ghosh, Atish, Anne-Marie Gulde, Jonathan Ostry and Holger Wolf, 1997. Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? NBER Working Paper No.5874,P6
43 刘振林．东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择研究．中国经济出版社．2006年．第206页
44 Glick, Reuren, Michael Hutchson and Ramon Moreno, 1999. Is Pegging the Exchange Rate a Cure for Inflation? East Asian Experiences. In Richard Sweeney et al eds. Exchange-rate Policies for Emerging Market Economies. Westview Press, Colorado, 1999.
45 Kawai, Masahiro and Shinji Takagi, 2000. Proposed Strategy for a Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement in Post-crisis East Asia. Wold Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2503. P18
1 See Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau Peter Garber, 2003, An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System, NBER Working Paper 9971;————,2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System: Alive and Well. Deutshche Bank Global Markets Research, Dec. 2004;————,2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System. International Journal of Finance and Economics 9
2 Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-landau and Peter Garber,2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System. International Journal of Finance and Economics 9, P309
3 当时罗斯福政府将黄金的价格从每盎司20.67美元提高到每盎司35美元。
4 Bordo, Michael, 1993. The Gold Standard Bretton Woods and Other Monetary Regimes: an Historical Appraisal. NBER working paper 4310, P33
6 Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau Peter Garber, 2004. Direct Investment, Rising Real Wages and the Absorption of Excess Labor in the Periphery. NBER Working Paper 10626, P13
7 Obstfeld, Maurice, Kenneth Rogoff and Richard Cooper, 2005. Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Issue 1, P70
8 Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods. NBER Working Paper 10497, PP4-5
9 戴金平、万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年．第4页
10 同注释6，第3-4页
11 Robini, Nouriel and Brad Setster, 2005. Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? Presentation for conference on "The Revived Bretton Woods System: A New Paradigm For Asian Decelopment?" Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciso.P4
12 Shinji Takagi, 2004. Capital Account Liberalization: Lessons from Two Giants and Four Tigers. In Masahiro Kawai edo Financial Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia. Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, 2004, P108
13 河合正弘．货币危机与东亚汇率安排．来自杨国栋主编．国际货币金融体系与东亚．天津人民出版社．2000年．第35页
14 黄志龙．“汇率制度两极化”：拉美国家的经验研究．拉丁美洲研究．2004(2)．第52页
15 http://www.ebtime.net/stat/guoji/moxige/io200603.htm
16 Busse, Matthias, Carsten Hefeker and Georg Koopmann, 2004. Between Two Poles: Matching Trade and Exchange Rate Regimes in Mercosur. HWWA Discussion Paper 301, P6
17 Wise, Carol and Riordan Roett eds, 2000. Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, P11
18 厄瓜多尔于2000年9月、萨尔瓦于2001年1月已经分别正式美元化。
19 转引自：江时学．拉美国家的汇率制度与美元化．世界经济．2004(5)．第45页
20 所谓非正式美元化，即本国居民非正式地使用一种外国货币，尽管这种使用没有得到政府的承认。半正式美元指本国货币和美元同时合法流通。
21 转引自：江时学．金融全球化与发展中国家的经济安全．社会科学出版社．2004年．第120页
22 数据来源同注释17，第8-9页
23 杨柳勇．国际收支结构研究．中国金融出版社．2003年．第71页
24 数据来源同注释23，第71-72页
25 陈志昂，王义中．基于金融脆弱性的发展中国家新重商主义．浙江学刊．2005(1)．第184-185页
26 中国增长最快，平均增长率高达14.4％；最慢的印尼，其平均增长率也在6.0％以上。
27 Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2000. Fix or Flex? Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in an Era of G|obal Capital Mobility. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 11(2000), P 187
28 同注释21第17页
29 Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in Latin America and East Asia. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 2
30 数据来源: Inter-American Development Bank, 2001. Economic and Social Progress in Latin America 2001 Report. P13
1 Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau Peter Garber, 2004. The Revived Bretton Woods System: Alive and Well. Deutshche Bank Global Markets Research, Dec. 2004
2 Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber, 2003. An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System. NBER Working Paper 9971
3 Pingfan Hong, 2001. Global Implications of the United States Trade Deficit Adjustment.DESA discussion paper No. 17, P3
4 戴金平，万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年．第177页
5 McCauiey, Robert, 2003. Capital Flows in East Asia since the 1997 Crisis. BIS Quarterly Review, June 2003.P46
6 陈志昂．新“特里芬悖论”与人民币汇率．来自张礼9即主编，汇率制度变革——国际经验与中国：选择．中国金融出版社．2005年．第190页
7 Krugman, Paul, 1985. Is the Strong Dollar Sustainable?. Prospects and Policy Options. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
8 Greenspan, Alan, 2004. The Evolving U.S. Payments Imbalance and Its Impact on Europe and the Rest of the World. Cato Journal 24 (Spring-Summer)
9 (日)福井博夫著．宛金章译．国际金融与经营环境．中央编译出版社．2005年．第20—21页
10 Mann, Catherine, 1999.Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable? Washington, Institute for International Economics. P 151
11 Williamson, John, 1983. The Exchange Rate System. Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC
12 Gramlich, Edward, 2004. Budget and Trade Deficits: Linked, Both Worrisome in the Long Run, but not Twins. www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches. May 14, 2004
13 Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Iss. 1, PP79-80
14 Truman, Edwin, 2005. Postponing Global Adjustment. IIE working paper No. WP 05-6, P6
15 Felipe,Jesuss, Kristine Kintanar and Joseph Lim, 2006. Asia's Current Account Surplus: Savings Glut or Investment Drought? Asian Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, PP19-20
16 数据来源同注释13，第55页
17 杨柳勇．国际收支结构研究．中国金融出版社．2003年．第57-58页
18 Summers, Lawrrence, 2004. The United States and the Global Adjustment Process. Speech at the Third Annual Stavros S. Niarchos Lecture. Institute for International Economics, Washington
19 Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2004.The Need in Bilateral Exchange Rates. In Fred Bergsten and John Williamson edited, Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What? Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., P37
20 Geither, Timothy,2006.U.S. Monetary Policy in the Global Financial Environment. Remarks at the Japan Society Corporate Luncheon in New York City. www.ny.frb.org. March 9, 2006
21 A．J．Makin著．曹和平等译校．国际金融与宏观经济．北京大学出版社．2005年版．第78页
22 Roubini, Nouriel and Brad Setser, 2004. The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalance. mimeo, New York University, P6
23 同注释9，第11页
24 约翰·威廉姆森．汇率制度选择的国际经验及其对中国的借鉴愿意．来自张礼卿主编：汇率制度变革．中国金融出版社．第10页
25 余永定．全球收支不平衡与中国对策．国际金融研究．2007(1)．第22页
26 数据来源：根据ADB key indictors计算。
27 Lee, Jong-Wha, Warwick McKibbin and Yung Chul Park, 2006. Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures.The World Economy, Vol.29 Issue 3, P284
28 数据来源：Yoshitomi, Masaru, Li-gang Liu and Willem Thorbecke, 2005. East Asia's Role in Resolving the New Global Imbalances. http://www.rieti.go.jp/users/neat/pdf/03-analyst_oaper.pdf
29 Higgins, Macthew and Thomas Klitgaard,2004. Reserve Accumulation: Implications for Global Capital Flows and Financial Markets. Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 10.
30 同注释27，第14页
31 公式推导过程，参见：聂丹．可调整的钉住汇率：钉住与调整．上海人民出版社．2002年．第212页
32严美姬．东亚汇率制度的博弈分析．亚太经济．2005(2)．第2页
33Ito, Takatoshi, Eiji Ogawa and Yuri Nagataki Sasaki, 1998. How Did the Dollar Fail in Asia? NBER Working Paper 6729, PP35-36
34Goldstein, Morris and Philip Turner, 2004.Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets. Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, P2
35参见：李扬．汇率制度改革必须高度关注货币错配风险．财经理论与实践．2005(4)
36赵伟，杨会臣．钉住汇率制度的可持续性：一个基于汇率预期的分析框架．世界经济．2005(7)
37 同注释34，第4页
38 Factset, www.economist.com
39 IMF. World Economic Outlook, April 2006. chapterl, P28
40 Mann, Catherine, 2004. Managing Exchange Rates: Achievement of Global Re-balancing or Evidence of Global Co-dependency? Business Economics, July 2004, P26
41 http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/2OO7/ADO-growth-rate.pdf
42 http://www.bea.gov/newreleases/national/gdp/gdp406.pdf
43罗伯特·蒙代尔．国际货币制度改革．来自罗伯特·蒙代尔，保罗·扎克．货币稳定与经济增长．中国金融出版社．2004年．第12页
44 同注释42，第16页
45 Esquivel,Gerardo and Felipe Larranin, 2002. The Impact of G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility on Developing Countries. G-24 Discussion Paper NO. 16, P1
46 同注释9，第208页
47 Ohno, Kenichi, 1999. Exchange Rate Management in Developing Asia: Reassessment of the Pre-crisis Soft Dollar Zone. ADBI Working Paper 1, Tokyo, P11
48 See Kwan, Chi Hung, 1998a. The Yen, the Yuan and the Asian Currency Crisis: Changing Forune between Japan and China. http://www.tcf.or.jp/data/19981015-16_CH_Kwan.pdf——,1998b. Asia's Currency Crisis from the Perspective of Yen and Yuan. Iwanami, Tokyo
49 李平，范跃进．G—3汇率波动对发展中国家和地区的货币稳定的影响．世界经济．2004(10)．第32页
50 Esquivel, Gerardo and Felipe Larranin, 2002. The Impact of G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility on Developing Countries. G-24 Discussion Paper No. 16
51 数据采集：美联储(http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5a/), IMF(http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/param_rms_mth.aspx), BIS(http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/broad0703.xls)
52 Yagci, Fahrettin 2001. Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing Countries. IMF Africa Region Working Paper No. 16, P22
53 Goldstein, Morris, 2002. Managed Floating Plus. Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.,P11
1 Bènnasy-Quèrè, Agnès and Benit Coeurè, 2000. Big or Small Currencies: the Regional Connection. CEPII Working Paper 2000-09
2 尤马斯阿奎编辑．改革全球金融体系问题与建议．第三世界网络出版．2003年．第8页
3 Ohno, Kenichi, 1999. Exchange Rate Management in Developing Asia: Reassessment of the Pre-crisis Soft Dollar Zone. ADBI Working, Paper 1. Tokvo. P9
4 参见：戴金平，程义全．汇率合作的汇率稳定效应：一个简单的分析框架．世界经济．2001(9)
5 Ogawa, Eiji and Takatoshi lto, 2002. On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 16
6 货币合作的初级阶段为地区性危机紧急援救机制，最高级阶段为货币联盟。
7 Choi, Changkyu and Deok Ryong Yoon, 2004. Costs and Benefits of Intra-regional Exchange Rate Stability among China, Japan and Korea. In Masahiro Kawai ed. Financial Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia. Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, 2004, P4
8 Frankel, Jeffrey and Andrew Rose, 1996. The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. NBER Working Paper No.5700
9 Wei, Shang-Jin and Changkyu Choi, 2002. Currency Blocs and Cross-Border Investment. http://myhome.shinbiro.corn/-ckchoi/bloc.pdf
10 资料来源：IMF, international finance statistics
11 Henning, Randall, 2002. East Asian Financial Cooperation. Institute for International Economics 68. P6
12同注释7，第49页
13戴金平，万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年．第138页
14罗纳德·麦金农，甘瑟·施纳布尔．中国是东亚地区的稳定力量还是通缩压力之源?余永定，何帆主编．人民币悬念．中国青年出版社．2004年．第27页
15根据ADB公布的相关数据计算(http://www.aric.adb.org/indicator.php)。
16卢峰．中国国际收支双顺差现象研究．世界经济．2006(11)．第7页
17根据 External Direct Investment of Hong Kong in 2004(http://www.pprd.org.cn/hkenglish/Statistics)计算
18 Bayoumi, Tamin and Barry Eichengreen, 1994. One Money or Many? Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World. Princeton Studies in International Finance, No. 76
19何帆，张斌，张明．对《清迈协议》的评估及改革建议．http://www.doctor-cafe.com/detaill.asp?id=3115
20万志宏．东亚货币合作的经济基础研究．中国商务出版社，2004年．第180页
21同注释13，第70页
22(日)小川英治．创建东亚统一货币篮的可能性．国际金融研究．2004(6)．第78页
23 根据 IMF, International Financial Statistics 计算 (http://ifs.aodi.net/imf/logon.aspx)
24同注释13，第70页
25 Bénassy -Quèrè, Agnès and Benit Coeurè, 2000. Big or Small Currencies: the Regional Connection.CEPII Working Paper 2000-09
26 Lewis, Jeffrey, 1999. Asian vs. International: Structuring an Asian Monetary Fund. Harvard Asia Quarterly, Vol.Ⅲ, No.4
27 Eichengreen, Barry and Paul Mauro, 2000. On regional monetary arrangement for ASEAN. CEPR discussion paper 2411
28 Hamada, Koichi, 1998. The Choice of International Monetary Regimes in a Context of Repeated Games. Open Economies Review 9(1998), P433
29 Yagci, Fahrettin 2001. Choice &Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing Countries. IMF Africa Region Working Paper No.16
30 McKinnon, Ranolad, 2000a. On the Periphery of the International Dollar Standard: Canada, Latin America and East Asia. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 11, Issue 2
31 McKinnon, Ranolad, 2000b. The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life after Death? Economic Notes, 29(1), P117
32 Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-1998 Currency Crisis. Monetary and Economic Studies December 2002, P194
33 姚枝仲．不对称竞争压力与人民币的亚洲战略．世界经济与政治．2004(7)．第35页
34 See Kwan, Chi Hung, 2000. The Economics of a Yen Bloc. The Brooking Institution and Nomura Research Institute
35 资料来源：根据IMF Statistics Department COFER database计算(http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/index.htm)。
36 河合正弘．货币危机与东亚汇率安排．白杨国栋主编．国际货币金融体系与东亚．天津人民出版社．2000年．第35页
37 Williamsorl,JOhn,1999.The Case for a Common Basket Peg for East Asian Currencies.In Stefan Collignon et al,eds.:Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Asian Countries[M].London and New York:Routledge,1999
38 有效汇率是对所有货币按贸易权重计算的平均汇率。
39张斌．东亚区域汇率合作：中国视角．世界经济．2004(10)．第26页
40参见注释5和注释32
41转引自：许少强．货币一体化概论．复旦大学出版社．2004年．第207—208页
42Hefeker, Carsten and Andreas Nabor, 2005. China's Role in East-Asian Monetary Integration. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 10(2005)
43 丁一兵，李晓．关于东亚区域货币合作的研究：文献综述．当代亚太．2004(6)．第22页
44 同注释11，第52页
45日本财政部，2000：8
46数据来源：Henning, C. Randall, 2002. East Asian Financial Cooperation. Institute for International Economics. P20
47同注释7，第26页
48同注释11，第36页
49参见注释7。
50 See Forbes, Catherine and Paul Kofman, 2000. Bayesian Soft Target Zones. Monash University Working Paper 4/2000, Austfilia
51 Wren-Lewis, Simon,1997. The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime. The Economic Journal 107
52 Bartolini, Leonardo and Alessandro Prati, 1997. Soft versus Hard Targets for Intervention. Economic Policy, no. 24(April), P16
53 同注释32，第193-194页
54 Kofman, Paul, Albert de Vaal and Casper G. de Vries, 1993. Fixing Soft Margins. Journal of lnternational Economics 34(1993), P359
55同注释52，第16页
56同注释32，第197页
57李富有．区域货币合作：理论、实践与亚洲的选择．中国金融出版社．2004年．第279页
58同沣释25
59Bénassy -Quéré, Agnés, 1997. Optimal Peg for Asian Countries. CEPII Working Paper No. 97-14
60栾雅钧．东南亚金融危机的汇率制度分析及最优汇率制度探索．亚太经济2000(5)．第11页
61同注释41，第139页
62 同注释3
63 Truman, Edwin, 2005. Postponing Global Adjustment. IIE Working Paper No. WP 05-6
64 Williamson, John, 2000. Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, P31
65 参见注释31
66 Bordo, Nichael, 1993. The Gold Standard Bretton Woods and Other Monetary Regimes: an Historical Appraisal. NBER Working Paper 4310, P4
67 Busse, Matthias, Carsten Hefeker and Georg Koopmann, 2004. Between Two Poles: Matching Trade and Exchange Rate Regimes in Mercosur. HWWA Discussion Paper 301, P13
68 同注释31，第4页
1罗纳德·麦金农，甘瑟·施纳布尔．中国是东亚地区的稳定力量还是通缩压力之源?余永定，何帆主编．人民币悬念．中国青年出版社．2004年．第32页
2董力为等编著．人民币汇率现实问题的争论与探讨．中国财政经济出版社．2004年．第66页
3本模型参考了 Welch 和 McLeod 建立的模型。具体参见 Welch, John and Darryt McLeod,1993. The Costs and Benefits of Fixed Dollar Exchange Rates in Latin America. Economic Review, First Quarter, 1993
4罗奇．美国别寻找中国当替罪羊．http://newsl.jrj.com.cn/news/2006-10-26/000001733337.html.2006年10月26日
5 Campa, Jose and Linda Goldberg, 2002. Exchange Rate Pass-through into Import Prices: a Macro or Micro Phenomenon. NBER Working Paper 8943
6 Marazzi, Mario, Nathan Sheets and Robert Vigfusson, 2005. Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices. International Finance Discussion Paper No. 833. the Federal Reserve, U.S.
7 公式具体推导过程，参见：罗忠洲，廖发达．汇率对出口价格传递率的经验研究：以1971—2003年的日本为例．世界经济．2005(11)．第27页
8数据采集：BLS: www.bls.gov/pub/supple/simpim.ippsharm.tex; BEA: www.bea.gov/natioanal/xls/gdplev.xls,中国人民银行： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/gofile.asp?file=2006S14.htm FDS:http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/current/
10 McGregor．中国出口商品获得更高利润．英国《金融时报》中文网(www.ftchinese.com/sc/story.jsp?).2007—2—27
11数据来源：中国商务部http://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/trade
12根据中国外汇管理局公布的月度汇率计算(http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe/tjsj/tjsj_list.jsp?)。
13数据来源：Chinese Puzzle.www.economist.com.Aug.11,2005
14数据来源：Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès and Lahreche-Revil, 2003. Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China. CEPII, Working Paper No. 2003-21, P19
15转引自：Hefeker, Carsten and Andreas Nabor, 2005. China's Role in East-Asian Monetary Integration. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 10(2005), P159
16 Robini, Nouriel and Brad Setster, 2005. Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? Presentation for conference on "The Revived Bretton Woods System: A New Paradigm For Asian Decelopment?" Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciso.P36
17 同注释1，第32页
18 姚枝仲．不对称竞争压力与人民币的亚洲战略．世界经济与政治．2004(7)．第35页
19 同注释13，第24-25页
20 See Kwan (2001), McKinnon and Schnabl(2003)
21 Kwan, Chi-Hung, 2001. Yen Bloc: Toward Economic Integration in Asia. Washington DC
22 数据采集：日本财务省：www.boj.orjp/en/type/release/zuiji_new,data,美联储：http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/current/
24据ADB公布的数据计算(http://www.aric.adb.org/indicator.php)
25李瑶．非国际货币、货币国际化与资本项目可兑换．金融研究．2003(8)
26 万志宏．东亚货币合作的经济基础研究．中国商务出版社．2004年
27 Choi, Changkyu, 2002. The Benefits and Costs of an East Asian Currency Union. In Han Gwang Choo and Yunjong Wang eds. Currency Union in East Asia. Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, 2002
28 戴金平，万志宏．APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析．南开大学出版社．2005年
29 Calvo, Guillermo and Carmen Reinhart, 2000. Fear of Floating. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117(2)
1刘振林．东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择研究．中国经济出版社．2006年．第83页
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