东亚汇率协调机制研究
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摘要
自上世纪80年代,东亚地区纷纷采取钉住美元的汇率制,由于缺乏区域间汇率政策协调,在国际游资冲击下,最终爆发了1997年东南亚金融危机。危机后,东亚国家虽然对本国的汇率制度进行了更具灵活性的改革,但在实际运行中又恢复了钉住美元的汇率制度。东亚经济发展的历史和现实表明,钉住美元汇率制已明显地制约了东亚经济的长远发展,并可能引发新的金融危机。2007年美国次贷危机的爆发,使得金融体系危机迅速恶化,包括东亚经济体在内的世界各国均遭受严重打击,这一历史性变化导致世界各大主要货币重新洗牌。就在我国刚刚结束的2010年“两会”期间,央行表示将适时考虑退出特别汇率机制,这预示着美元作为东亚地区“锚货币”的地位开始松动。东亚钉住美元汇率制的不稳定性和脆弱性,决定了钉住美元制只能是短期的过渡性方案,而区域汇率协调将是国际货币制度改革和汇率体系发展的大势所趋。由此,东亚国家能否展开区域内密切的汇率协调,以及如何进行汇率协调,将是本文试图探讨的问题。
全文以“为何协调”——“能否协调”——“如何协调”为主线,对于“为何协调”,本文从东亚各国均采取事实上钉住美元制的实证分析入手,探讨东亚钉住美元的不稳定性,并结合后危机时代背景阐述东亚汇率协调的必要性；对于“能否协调”,本文根据最优货币区理论的相关标准,对东亚地区是否具备汇率协调的经济基础进行实证检验,进一步对东亚汇率协调的可行性做出分析；对于“如何协调”,本文借鉴欧盟汇率协调的实践经验,在比较各种可实施的汇率协调模式基础上,提出以人民币、日元、新元三种主导货币为核心,先“子区域”后“整个区域”,将东亚汇率协调进一步细分为四个阶段逐步推进的基本构想。最后探讨东亚汇率协调下中国的战略选择及其相应的战略安排。
Since the 80s of last century, the East Asian region have adopted the "pegging dollar" arrangement. It is for the reason of lacking coordination of exchange rate arrangement in East Asia that the East Asia Financial Crisis broke out in 1997 under the attack of international flowing capital. After the Crisis, East Asia countries readjusted to a more flexible direction, but soon resumed the "pegging dollar" arrangement in practice. The past economic development of East Asia countries and their present conditions show that the existing exchange rate arrangement has hindered the development of East Asia economy in the long run and would initiate new financial crisis. In 2007, the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis had triggered rapid deterioration of the global financial system crisis, including the East Asian economies and many developing countries in the world, which have been badly hit. The historic change had led to reshuffle the world's major currencies. On the just-concluded China's "two sessions" period, the central bank said it would consider withdrawing from the special exchange rate regime, which indicates that the U.S. dollar as the East Asian region "anchor currency" status have beginning to loosen. The unsustainability and vulnerability of U.S. dollar pegged exchange rate system in East Asia, have determined the "pegging dollar" arrangement can only be a short-term transitional program degrees, while the regional exchange rate coordination will be the trend of international monetary system reform and exchange rate system development.
The main line of the dissertation is "why coordinates", "whether coordinates" and "how coordinates". Regarding to "why coordinates", the dissertation started from the instability of East Asian "pegging dollar" arrangement, with the current era of post-crisis context, the dissertation expounds the necessity of the exchange rate coordination in East Asia. Regarding to "whether coordinates", based on the relative standards of the theory of Optimum Currency Areas, the dissertation focuses on the inspection of economic basis of East Asia. Regarding to "how coordinates", the dissertation profits from experience of the European exchange rate coordination. Comparing of the various models which can be implemented in East Asia, it is proposed to set RMB, Japanese yen, Singapore dollars as the leading currencies of three "sub-regional", and then along the progressive manner of "sub-regional" to the "wide-regional", so East Asian exchange rate coordination can be further broken down into four phases gradually push forward the basic idea. Finally, the dissertation discusses China's strategic choice and its corresponding strategic arrangement under the East Asia exchange rate coordination mechanism.
全文以“为何协调”——“能否协调”——“如何协调”为主线,对于“为何协调”,本文从东亚各国均采取事实上钉住美元制的实证分析入手,探讨东亚钉住美元的不稳定性,并结合后危机时代背景阐述东亚汇率协调的必要性；对于“能否协调”,本文根据最优货币区理论的相关标准,对东亚地区是否具备汇率协调的经济基础进行实证检验,进一步对东亚汇率协调的可行性做出分析；对于“如何协调”,本文借鉴欧盟汇率协调的实践经验,在比较各种可实施的汇率协调模式基础上,提出以人民币、日元、新元三种主导货币为核心,先“子区域”后“整个区域”,将东亚汇率协调进一步细分为四个阶段逐步推进的基本构想。最后探讨东亚汇率协调下中国的战略选择及其相应的战略安排。
Since the 80s of last century, the East Asian region have adopted the "pegging dollar" arrangement. It is for the reason of lacking coordination of exchange rate arrangement in East Asia that the East Asia Financial Crisis broke out in 1997 under the attack of international flowing capital. After the Crisis, East Asia countries readjusted to a more flexible direction, but soon resumed the "pegging dollar" arrangement in practice. The past economic development of East Asia countries and their present conditions show that the existing exchange rate arrangement has hindered the development of East Asia economy in the long run and would initiate new financial crisis. In 2007, the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis had triggered rapid deterioration of the global financial system crisis, including the East Asian economies and many developing countries in the world, which have been badly hit. The historic change had led to reshuffle the world's major currencies. On the just-concluded China's "two sessions" period, the central bank said it would consider withdrawing from the special exchange rate regime, which indicates that the U.S. dollar as the East Asian region "anchor currency" status have beginning to loosen. The unsustainability and vulnerability of U.S. dollar pegged exchange rate system in East Asia, have determined the "pegging dollar" arrangement can only be a short-term transitional program degrees, while the regional exchange rate coordination will be the trend of international monetary system reform and exchange rate system development.
The main line of the dissertation is "why coordinates", "whether coordinates" and "how coordinates". Regarding to "why coordinates", the dissertation started from the instability of East Asian "pegging dollar" arrangement, with the current era of post-crisis context, the dissertation expounds the necessity of the exchange rate coordination in East Asia. Regarding to "whether coordinates", based on the relative standards of the theory of Optimum Currency Areas, the dissertation focuses on the inspection of economic basis of East Asia. Regarding to "how coordinates", the dissertation profits from experience of the European exchange rate coordination. Comparing of the various models which can be implemented in East Asia, it is proposed to set RMB, Japanese yen, Singapore dollars as the leading currencies of three "sub-regional", and then along the progressive manner of "sub-regional" to the "wide-regional", so East Asian exchange rate coordination can be further broken down into four phases gradually push forward the basic idea. Finally, the dissertation discusses China's strategic choice and its corresponding strategic arrangement under the East Asia exchange rate coordination mechanism.
引文
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① Article Ⅷ-General Obligations of Members主要内容有：1.对国际经常往来的付款和资金转移不得施加限制；2.不施行歧视性货币措施或多种货币汇率；3.在另一成员国要求下,随时有义务换回对方在经常往来中所结存的本国货币。
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①雷志卫.欧洲货币联盟的理论基础与动作机制[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2000.
②Stefan Collignon, Jean Pisani—Ferry&Yung Chul Park eds. Exehange Rate polieies in Emerging Asian Countries. Rootledge.1999.354页
① Frankel, Jeffrey and Wei Shang-jin. Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies[M]. University of Chicago Press.1994
②Mckinnon, Schnabl, Synchronzid Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate[J]. Forthcoming in The World Economy.2003
①何慧刚.最优货币区理论与东亚货币合作问题研究[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2005：294-396.
②东亚国际移民劳工是指该地区内的劳工为了就业的需要从出生所在国或居住国迁往东亚地区的其他国家,从迁移时间看,既包括短期合同性移民劳工,又包括少数事实上的永久性国际移民劳工；从迁移者特征看,既包括无技术或半技术的移民劳工,又包括高级专业技术人才。
③Prema-chandra Athukorala (2006)..International Labour Migration in East Asia:trends, patterns and policyissues.
Asian-Pacific Economic Literature.2006:p18 39.
① Article Ⅷ-General Obligations of Members主要内容有：1.对国际经常往来的付款和资金转移不得施加限制；2.不施行歧视性货币措施或多种货币汇率；3.在另一成员国要求下,随时有义务换回对方在经常往来中所结存的本国货币。
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②http://www.pbc.gov.cn/detail.asp?col=4200&ID=279“中国人民银行网站‘关于改革货币体系的思考’”
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