东亚区域汇率协调机制的研究
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摘要
区域汇率协调机制是通过协调财政和货币政策以及其它宏观经济政策,设定汇率波动的范围和干预机制,维护区域内的汇率稳定,从而维护各经济体的经济稳定,促进区域和各成员的经济发展。区域货币合作是国际货币制度的发展趋向,它能有效地应对国际资本流动对区域经济稳定的冲击以及避免金融动荡。然而,稳定而有效的区域汇率协调机制有利于东亚各经济体之间货币的汇率稳定,有利于避免各经济体之间的竞争性贬值,有利于抵御国际投机资本的残酷冲击等。因此,探讨东亚区域汇率协调机制是区域经济一体化和区域货币一体的迫切要求,是东亚货币危机给东亚各经济体带来的深刻启示,更是实现该区域货币同盟不可抹去的重点研究课题。
本文主要表现在以下五个方面：
一是绪论部分。包括选题的目的与意义、国内外研究现状、研究的内容以及本文可能的创新点和不足之处。
二是区域汇率协调的理论依据。主要是系统研究最优货币区理论、汇率目标区理论、溢出效应理论以及博弈理论,并进行归纳总结,以指导下一步的研究内容。
三是东亚区域汇率协调机制的现状分析以及经验启示。结合最优货币区理论、汇率目标区理论以及溢出效应等理论的分析,得出的结论是：在美元持续走低以及日元国际化程度不高及其经济不景气的条件下,日元难以发挥其东亚“锚货币”的作用。然而,随着中国与东亚地区各经济体的经济发展关系越来越密切的情况下,中国已成为东亚各经济体经济增长的重要动力,与此同时,在人民币汇率制度的逐步改革和人民币国际化的稳步推进的前提下,人民币在东亚区域内的公信力不断提高。这表明,目前人民币是东亚区域货币金融合作中最具潜力的“锚货币”。
四是构建以人民币为主导的东亚区域汇率协调机制。在东亚货币合作这一大背景下,结合人民币当前的国际化发展问题,创造性地提出以人民币为主导的东亚区域汇率协调机制是东亚的现实选择。目前较为现实的做法应该是：在东亚区域内部,各经济体要逐步摆脱美元的依赖,应当以人民币为关键货币确定中心汇率后套算双边汇率,允许双边汇率具有一定的弹性,同时为了维护双边汇率的稳定,需要通过某种安排使得各经济体能够借助政策调整和各种行动将各参与方的货币兑人民币的汇率波动幅度加以控制。另外,为推动东亚货币合作以及以人民币为主导货币的东亚汇率协调机制机制的形成,一是要进一步加强东亚区域内经济和贸易合作；二是要以中国—东盟自由贸易区建设为契机,加快推进人民币区域化进程；三是要放宽人民币资本项目可兑换的管制；四是要进一步深化人民币汇率制度的改革；五是要保持国际收支的平衡,避免“特里芬难题”出现的负面影响。
五是结论及研究展望。实证研究的结果表明：人民币与东亚10国和地区(中国香港和台湾)货币的汇率存在一定的相关关系。基于ADF检验,东亚10国和地区以及人民币、美元、欧元的一阶差分单整,时间序列数据较为平稳。人民币在东亚各经济体的汇率波动中有着重要的影响,这说明随着中国经济实力的不断增强以及中国在世界贸易中比重的不断上升,人民币的国际影响力已经大大增强,在东亚地区汇率稳定和减少外部汇率波动上起到了“货币锚”的作用。但由于笔者的研究能力和资料有限,本文的有些内容还存在着一些不足之处和有待深入研究的地方。具体来讲主要包括：一是人民币能否真正成为东亚区域主导性货币的论点还需要进行多方面的研究；二是需要综合运用成本和收益分析等理论,来进一步分析人民币作为主导货币对东亚的经济金融稳定的影响表现；三是结合人民币区域化问题来分析我国带来的机遇和挑战以及如何推进和应对人民币区域化等问题还需要进一步的研究。
区域货币联盟或区域单一货币已经成为当今时代发展的潮流。中国—东盟自由贸易区建设为区域单一货币提供了良好的实施条件,这大大推动了东亚最优货币区的建设。借助中国—东盟自由贸易区这个贸易平台,加快推进人民币在自由贸易区内跨境贸易结算,积极推进人民币周边化和区域化,逐步使人民币成为东亚各经济体的主要储备货币和投资、贸易及流通的结算货币,从而稳固人民币作为区域货币锚的强大功能,使得人民币真正成为东亚区域主导货币。
According to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy, even and others macroeconomic policies, regional exchange rate coordination mechanism which set the range of exchange rate volatility and intervention mechanisms can maintain exchange rate stability within the region, so as to maintain the economic stability of the economies and promote the regional economy developments. As the development trend of international monetary system, regional monetary cooperation, which can effectively respond to the impact of international capital flows and avoid financial instability. However, stable and effective regional exchange rate coordination mechanism which can help to stable currency exchange rate and avoid competitive devaluation among the East Asia economies, even resist the brutal impact of international speculative capital. Therefore, it is an urgent requirement of the regional economic integration and regional monetary integration to explore the East Asian regional exchange rate coordination mechanism, which is a profound revelation of the East Asian currency crisis in East Asian economies and a key research project to achieve the regional monetary union that can not be erased.
This article is mainly including five parts as following:
Firstly, the introduction part which including the purpose and significance of the topic, research status, the content of the study, and the possible innovation and inadequacies of this article.
Secondly, the theoretical basis for regional exchange rate coordination, which including optimum currency area theory, exchange rate target zone theory, spillover effects theory and game theory, even summarized to guide the furthering research for the next step.
Thirdly, it is analysis of East Asian regional exchange rate coordination mechanism as well as the experience of enlightenment. The analysis conclusion, which explore to optimum currency area theory, theory of exchange rate target zone, overflow effects theory and so on, is that yen is difficult to play the role of the anchor currency in East Asia in the terms of dollar continuing to slide as well as the degree of internationalization of yen. However, as the case of China and East Asia economies are getting closer, China has become an important engine of economic growth in East Asian economies. At the same time, RMB is becoming more and more confident in the East Asia region under the gradual reform of RMB exchange rate system and the internationalization of RMB that steadily advance. It is suggest that RMB is the most potential anchor currency between regional monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia.
Fourthly, it is to build the core of RMB in East Asia regional exchange rate coordination mechanism. It is a realistic choice which is put forward the East Asian regional exchange rate coordination mechanism that dominated RMB creatively under the circumstance of East Asian monetary cooperation, which combined with the RMB international development issues right now. A more realistic approach should be:within the East Asian region, the economy should get rid of the dependence of the dollar, and cross bilateral central rate should be determined as the key currency in RMB exchange rate, allowing the bilateral exchange rate stability, which allows the economy through policy adjustments and variety of actions to control the participating currencies against the RMB exchange rate fluctuations in order to maintain bilateral exchange rate stability. In addition, to promote monetary cooperation in East Asia as well as the formation of RMB as an dominating currency in East Asian exchange rate coordination mechanism, which should further strengthen economic and trade cooperation in East Asia region, accelerate RMB regionalization process under the opportunity of China-ASEAN Free Trade area construction, relax the control of the RMB convertible under capital accounts, further deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, and maintain the balance of international payments that avoiding the negative consequences of the "Triffin dilemma".
Fifthly, it is about conclusions and policy recommendations. The empirical results as following:there is a certain relationship between RMB and ten countries or regions (Hong Kong and Tai Wan) exchange rate in East Asia. The ten countries of East Asia and regions as well as RMB, U. S. dollar, and the Euro first-order differential single whole based on the ADF test which time series data is relatively stable. In the East Asian economies, exchange rate fluctuations impacted by the RMB exchange rate. It is indicating that RMB plays an important role of "anchor currency" in exchange rate stability in East Asia and reducing the external exchange rate fluctuations as the growing strength of the Chinese economy and the rising share in world trade. However, there are some shortcomings and areas for in-depth study on this paper due to the auther's research capacity and limited information. Specifically including:we also need for extensive research to know that whether the RMB can truly become the dominant currency in the East Asia firstly; we also use the theory of cost and benefit analysis to further analysis of the RMB affect the performance of the East Asia economic and financial stability as the dominant currency; we also need to further study the opportunities and challenges of our country and how to promote and respond to RMB regionalization.
Regional monetary union or regional single currency has become the development trend of the contemporary era. China-ASEAN Free Area construction provides good conditions for the implementation of regional single currency, which greatly promoted the construction of the optimal currency area in East Asia. With the trade platform of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, in order to make RMB become the East Asian dominant currency really which should accelerate RMB peripheral and regionalization, promote cross-border trade settlement in the Free Trade Area actively, make the RMB become a major reserve currency and investment of the East Asian economies, trade and the settlement currency of the circulation gradually, thereby securing the powerful features of RMB as a regional anchor currency.
本文主要表现在以下五个方面：
一是绪论部分。包括选题的目的与意义、国内外研究现状、研究的内容以及本文可能的创新点和不足之处。
二是区域汇率协调的理论依据。主要是系统研究最优货币区理论、汇率目标区理论、溢出效应理论以及博弈理论,并进行归纳总结,以指导下一步的研究内容。
三是东亚区域汇率协调机制的现状分析以及经验启示。结合最优货币区理论、汇率目标区理论以及溢出效应等理论的分析,得出的结论是：在美元持续走低以及日元国际化程度不高及其经济不景气的条件下,日元难以发挥其东亚“锚货币”的作用。然而,随着中国与东亚地区各经济体的经济发展关系越来越密切的情况下,中国已成为东亚各经济体经济增长的重要动力,与此同时,在人民币汇率制度的逐步改革和人民币国际化的稳步推进的前提下,人民币在东亚区域内的公信力不断提高。这表明,目前人民币是东亚区域货币金融合作中最具潜力的“锚货币”。
四是构建以人民币为主导的东亚区域汇率协调机制。在东亚货币合作这一大背景下,结合人民币当前的国际化发展问题,创造性地提出以人民币为主导的东亚区域汇率协调机制是东亚的现实选择。目前较为现实的做法应该是：在东亚区域内部,各经济体要逐步摆脱美元的依赖,应当以人民币为关键货币确定中心汇率后套算双边汇率,允许双边汇率具有一定的弹性,同时为了维护双边汇率的稳定,需要通过某种安排使得各经济体能够借助政策调整和各种行动将各参与方的货币兑人民币的汇率波动幅度加以控制。另外,为推动东亚货币合作以及以人民币为主导货币的东亚汇率协调机制机制的形成,一是要进一步加强东亚区域内经济和贸易合作；二是要以中国—东盟自由贸易区建设为契机,加快推进人民币区域化进程；三是要放宽人民币资本项目可兑换的管制；四是要进一步深化人民币汇率制度的改革；五是要保持国际收支的平衡,避免“特里芬难题”出现的负面影响。
五是结论及研究展望。实证研究的结果表明：人民币与东亚10国和地区(中国香港和台湾)货币的汇率存在一定的相关关系。基于ADF检验,东亚10国和地区以及人民币、美元、欧元的一阶差分单整,时间序列数据较为平稳。人民币在东亚各经济体的汇率波动中有着重要的影响,这说明随着中国经济实力的不断增强以及中国在世界贸易中比重的不断上升,人民币的国际影响力已经大大增强,在东亚地区汇率稳定和减少外部汇率波动上起到了“货币锚”的作用。但由于笔者的研究能力和资料有限,本文的有些内容还存在着一些不足之处和有待深入研究的地方。具体来讲主要包括：一是人民币能否真正成为东亚区域主导性货币的论点还需要进行多方面的研究；二是需要综合运用成本和收益分析等理论,来进一步分析人民币作为主导货币对东亚的经济金融稳定的影响表现；三是结合人民币区域化问题来分析我国带来的机遇和挑战以及如何推进和应对人民币区域化等问题还需要进一步的研究。
区域货币联盟或区域单一货币已经成为当今时代发展的潮流。中国—东盟自由贸易区建设为区域单一货币提供了良好的实施条件,这大大推动了东亚最优货币区的建设。借助中国—东盟自由贸易区这个贸易平台,加快推进人民币在自由贸易区内跨境贸易结算,积极推进人民币周边化和区域化,逐步使人民币成为东亚各经济体的主要储备货币和投资、贸易及流通的结算货币,从而稳固人民币作为区域货币锚的强大功能,使得人民币真正成为东亚区域主导货币。
According to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy, even and others macroeconomic policies, regional exchange rate coordination mechanism which set the range of exchange rate volatility and intervention mechanisms can maintain exchange rate stability within the region, so as to maintain the economic stability of the economies and promote the regional economy developments. As the development trend of international monetary system, regional monetary cooperation, which can effectively respond to the impact of international capital flows and avoid financial instability. However, stable and effective regional exchange rate coordination mechanism which can help to stable currency exchange rate and avoid competitive devaluation among the East Asia economies, even resist the brutal impact of international speculative capital. Therefore, it is an urgent requirement of the regional economic integration and regional monetary integration to explore the East Asian regional exchange rate coordination mechanism, which is a profound revelation of the East Asian currency crisis in East Asian economies and a key research project to achieve the regional monetary union that can not be erased.
This article is mainly including five parts as following:
Firstly, the introduction part which including the purpose and significance of the topic, research status, the content of the study, and the possible innovation and inadequacies of this article.
Secondly, the theoretical basis for regional exchange rate coordination, which including optimum currency area theory, exchange rate target zone theory, spillover effects theory and game theory, even summarized to guide the furthering research for the next step.
Thirdly, it is analysis of East Asian regional exchange rate coordination mechanism as well as the experience of enlightenment. The analysis conclusion, which explore to optimum currency area theory, theory of exchange rate target zone, overflow effects theory and so on, is that yen is difficult to play the role of the anchor currency in East Asia in the terms of dollar continuing to slide as well as the degree of internationalization of yen. However, as the case of China and East Asia economies are getting closer, China has become an important engine of economic growth in East Asian economies. At the same time, RMB is becoming more and more confident in the East Asia region under the gradual reform of RMB exchange rate system and the internationalization of RMB that steadily advance. It is suggest that RMB is the most potential anchor currency between regional monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia.
Fourthly, it is to build the core of RMB in East Asia regional exchange rate coordination mechanism. It is a realistic choice which is put forward the East Asian regional exchange rate coordination mechanism that dominated RMB creatively under the circumstance of East Asian monetary cooperation, which combined with the RMB international development issues right now. A more realistic approach should be:within the East Asian region, the economy should get rid of the dependence of the dollar, and cross bilateral central rate should be determined as the key currency in RMB exchange rate, allowing the bilateral exchange rate stability, which allows the economy through policy adjustments and variety of actions to control the participating currencies against the RMB exchange rate fluctuations in order to maintain bilateral exchange rate stability. In addition, to promote monetary cooperation in East Asia as well as the formation of RMB as an dominating currency in East Asian exchange rate coordination mechanism, which should further strengthen economic and trade cooperation in East Asia region, accelerate RMB regionalization process under the opportunity of China-ASEAN Free Trade area construction, relax the control of the RMB convertible under capital accounts, further deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, and maintain the balance of international payments that avoiding the negative consequences of the "Triffin dilemma".
Fifthly, it is about conclusions and policy recommendations. The empirical results as following:there is a certain relationship between RMB and ten countries or regions (Hong Kong and Tai Wan) exchange rate in East Asia. The ten countries of East Asia and regions as well as RMB, U. S. dollar, and the Euro first-order differential single whole based on the ADF test which time series data is relatively stable. In the East Asian economies, exchange rate fluctuations impacted by the RMB exchange rate. It is indicating that RMB plays an important role of "anchor currency" in exchange rate stability in East Asia and reducing the external exchange rate fluctuations as the growing strength of the Chinese economy and the rising share in world trade. However, there are some shortcomings and areas for in-depth study on this paper due to the auther's research capacity and limited information. Specifically including:we also need for extensive research to know that whether the RMB can truly become the dominant currency in the East Asia firstly; we also use the theory of cost and benefit analysis to further analysis of the RMB affect the performance of the East Asia economic and financial stability as the dominant currency; we also need to further study the opportunities and challenges of our country and how to promote and respond to RMB regionalization.
Regional monetary union or regional single currency has become the development trend of the contemporary era. China-ASEAN Free Area construction provides good conditions for the implementation of regional single currency, which greatly promoted the construction of the optimal currency area in East Asia. With the trade platform of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, in order to make RMB become the East Asian dominant currency really which should accelerate RMB peripheral and regionalization, promote cross-border trade settlement in the Free Trade Area actively, make the RMB become a major reserve currency and investment of the East Asian economies, trade and the settlement currency of the circulation gradually, thereby securing the powerful features of RMB as a regional anchor currency.
引文
①何慧刚.东亚汇率协调机制的理论和现实依据[J].金融教学与研究.2004年第3期.
②undell · R. "A theory of optimal currency area" [J].The American Economy Review.1961.
③格林沃尔.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].1982.
④onald W. Jones, Peter Kennen.国际经济学手册[M].2008年三月.第二卷.
⑤aul Krugman. From EMS to EMU and Beyond[M]. The Bosman Lecture.1991 (4).
⑥ttp://wenku.baidu.com/view/9b25d4906bec0975f465e268.html
⑦ttp://finance.qq.com/a/20110228/003947.htm
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