东亚区域产业转移研究
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摘要
东亚是国际区域产业转移的典型代表,东亚的崛起和发展离不开以区域内产业梯次传递为本质的“雁行发展模式”。1990年代以来,东亚各经济体的发展呈现出不同的态势,作为“东亚雁阵头雁”的日本经历了“失去的十年”,而作为“打乱雁阵的熊猫”①的中国却保持了较高的增长速度。1997年亚洲金融危机,更引发人们对带来“东亚奇迹”的“雁行模式”进行反思。加之,经济全球化的推进,跨国公司的大发展,国际生产分工也发生了显著的变化。对新现象的思考,推动了理论的进步。产业组织理论的发展,催生了新贸易理论、新增长理论、新经济地理理论的产生,空间的概念被逐渐引入主流经济学的研究框架,这也为研究国际区域产业转移问题提供了新的视角和工具。现实的变化和理论的进展,使我们有必要、也有条件深入探讨东亚区域产业转移——这一对东亚区域乃至整个世界经济都至关重要的问题。
After World WarⅡ, under the bless of the United States, East Asia has experienced three waves of the spread of industries, which were oriented by Japan’s scrap-and-build industrial restructuring. Along with the spread of industries in East Asia, the economies in East Asia began their industrialization in succession, created the miracle of growth one after another, and the whole region developed in the geese-flying way. But since the mid and late 1980’s, the form of the spread of industries in East Asia has changed, the spread in the form of production processes and working procedures rose, the regional production networks grew up.
Since the spread of industries in East Asia run through the regional development, so the research on this issue mainly existed in the research on the regional industrial structure, regional development pattern, regional division of labor and the so on. In this dissertation, the author made a fearless challenge, rethinking this issue under the much more general framework, tried to explain this issue in a brand new way. The author reviewed the research on the international spread of industries, from the new perspectives and with the new analytical tools, summarized the relative empirical indices, then with this new thinking method the author analyzed the reasons for the evolution of the spread of industries in East Asia, which is the main innovation of this dissertation.
The main content of this dissertation is as following:
Chapter one introduction brought forward the issue, summarized the literatures, and introduced the research objects, frame work, research method and the innovations and shortcomings. The emergence of the new situation in East Asia, the development of the new driving force and the emergence of the new theories make the author think about the new challenges to the spread of industries in East Asia. In this dissertation after the review of the literatures on the international spread of industries, the author found the main problems of the current research on this issue, then reviewed the relative research on this issue of East Asia. The changes of the real world, the current research situation together with the development of the relative theories stimulated the author to make the research according to the these two interlaced logics, one of which is from theory to case study then back to theory, another is from historical review to analysis of the current situation then to the expectation of the future.
Chapter two reviewed the formation and evolution of the spread of industries in East Asia. At first the author reviewed the history of the spread of industries in East Asia: after World WarⅡ, along with Japan’s scrap-and-rebuild restructuring and its expansion of the capital in Japan, East Asia experienced there waves of the spread of industries, formed the“flying geese pattern”and created the East Asian Miracle. Then the author summarized the theory of the“flying geese pattern”from the perspective of the origin, development and the spread, and also discussed the nature of the pattern and its relationship with the East Asia Pattern. At last the author summarized the main characters of the spread of industries in East Asia, and introduced its relationships with regional production networks in East Asia.
Chapter three and Chapter four back to the starting point discussed the more general issue-international spread of industries.
Chapter three reviewed the waves of the international spread of industries, and generalized the concept of the international spread of industries. After comparing with other relative concepts, the author made it clear on the research category of the international spread of industries. Then the author summarized the relative research from Chinese researchers, and concluded the nature of the international spread of industries. The author also classified the international spread of industries according to different kind of standards to reflect the characters roundly.
Chapter four tried to build up an analytical frame work. The blind spot of the new classical economics made the researchers pay less attention to the international spread of industries issue, but the new growth theory, the new trade theory and the new geographical theory provided new perspectives to this issue. In this chapter, the author put forward the way to analyze the issue, and introduced the relative models and empirical indices, which is the main innovation of this dissertation.
Chapter five discussed the reasons for the evolution of the spread of industries. At first using the logic put forward in the Chapter four, the author made a theoretical analysis from the five following levels-product, enterprise, industry, nation, region and the world. Then the author made the empirical analysis, from the perspective of international trade, FDI and the space.
Chapter six analyzed the main effects of the spread of industries in East Asia. The analysis includes global and regional these two aspects, mainly involved the following contents: its effects on the global economic growth and its relation with the global economic imbalance; its effects on the taking-off of the East Asian economy and its relationship with the regional integration in East Asia. The spread of industries in East Asia directly affected the formation and the changes of the regional division of labor, affected the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure and even affected the regional and global growth and development. It is very significant to analyze these effects, predict the related problems and put forward the countermeasures.
Chapter seven analyzed the status and functions of China in East Asian spread of industries. As the new driving force, China plays an important role in the regional spread of industries. From the“flock-breaking panda”to the new hinge of the“new triangular trade”, the formation of its“world workshop”status and the following trade frictions, we can analyze all these issues from the perspective of the spread of industries.
After World WarⅡ, under the bless of the United States, East Asia has experienced three waves of the spread of industries, which were oriented by Japan’s scrap-and-build industrial restructuring. Along with the spread of industries in East Asia, the economies in East Asia began their industrialization in succession, created the miracle of growth one after another, and the whole region developed in the geese-flying way. But since the mid and late 1980’s, the form of the spread of industries in East Asia has changed, the spread in the form of production processes and working procedures rose, the regional production networks grew up.
Since the spread of industries in East Asia run through the regional development, so the research on this issue mainly existed in the research on the regional industrial structure, regional development pattern, regional division of labor and the so on. In this dissertation, the author made a fearless challenge, rethinking this issue under the much more general framework, tried to explain this issue in a brand new way. The author reviewed the research on the international spread of industries, from the new perspectives and with the new analytical tools, summarized the relative empirical indices, then with this new thinking method the author analyzed the reasons for the evolution of the spread of industries in East Asia, which is the main innovation of this dissertation.
The main content of this dissertation is as following:
Chapter one introduction brought forward the issue, summarized the literatures, and introduced the research objects, frame work, research method and the innovations and shortcomings. The emergence of the new situation in East Asia, the development of the new driving force and the emergence of the new theories make the author think about the new challenges to the spread of industries in East Asia. In this dissertation after the review of the literatures on the international spread of industries, the author found the main problems of the current research on this issue, then reviewed the relative research on this issue of East Asia. The changes of the real world, the current research situation together with the development of the relative theories stimulated the author to make the research according to the these two interlaced logics, one of which is from theory to case study then back to theory, another is from historical review to analysis of the current situation then to the expectation of the future.
Chapter two reviewed the formation and evolution of the spread of industries in East Asia. At first the author reviewed the history of the spread of industries in East Asia: after World WarⅡ, along with Japan’s scrap-and-rebuild restructuring and its expansion of the capital in Japan, East Asia experienced there waves of the spread of industries, formed the“flying geese pattern”and created the East Asian Miracle. Then the author summarized the theory of the“flying geese pattern”from the perspective of the origin, development and the spread, and also discussed the nature of the pattern and its relationship with the East Asia Pattern. At last the author summarized the main characters of the spread of industries in East Asia, and introduced its relationships with regional production networks in East Asia.
Chapter three and Chapter four back to the starting point discussed the more general issue-international spread of industries.
Chapter three reviewed the waves of the international spread of industries, and generalized the concept of the international spread of industries. After comparing with other relative concepts, the author made it clear on the research category of the international spread of industries. Then the author summarized the relative research from Chinese researchers, and concluded the nature of the international spread of industries. The author also classified the international spread of industries according to different kind of standards to reflect the characters roundly.
Chapter four tried to build up an analytical frame work. The blind spot of the new classical economics made the researchers pay less attention to the international spread of industries issue, but the new growth theory, the new trade theory and the new geographical theory provided new perspectives to this issue. In this chapter, the author put forward the way to analyze the issue, and introduced the relative models and empirical indices, which is the main innovation of this dissertation.
Chapter five discussed the reasons for the evolution of the spread of industries. At first using the logic put forward in the Chapter four, the author made a theoretical analysis from the five following levels-product, enterprise, industry, nation, region and the world. Then the author made the empirical analysis, from the perspective of international trade, FDI and the space.
Chapter six analyzed the main effects of the spread of industries in East Asia. The analysis includes global and regional these two aspects, mainly involved the following contents: its effects on the global economic growth and its relation with the global economic imbalance; its effects on the taking-off of the East Asian economy and its relationship with the regional integration in East Asia. The spread of industries in East Asia directly affected the formation and the changes of the regional division of labor, affected the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure and even affected the regional and global growth and development. It is very significant to analyze these effects, predict the related problems and put forward the countermeasures.
Chapter seven analyzed the status and functions of China in East Asian spread of industries. As the new driving force, China plays an important role in the regional spread of industries. From the“flock-breaking panda”to the new hinge of the“new triangular trade”, the formation of its“world workshop”status and the following trade frictions, we can analyze all these issues from the perspective of the spread of industries.
引文
①The World Bank (2006), pp.4-5.
②藤田昌久、保罗·克鲁格曼、安东尼·J·维纳布尔斯(2005),代译者序第6页。
①杨贵言:《东亚概念辨析》,《当代亚太》2002年第2期,第21页。
②罗荣渠:《现代化新论续篇——东亚与中国的现代化进程》,北京大学出版社1997年版,第280页。
①The World Bank. 1993. The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. Published for the World Bank, Oxford University Press, p.xvi.
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②如联合国经济及社会理事会统计司《统计丛刊》M系列第53号,订正4。
①赤松要:《世界经济论》,国元书房1965年版,第173页。
①渡边利夫:《发展经济学——经济学与现代亚洲》,第237页,转引自张捷(1999)第21页。
①渡邊利夫:“中國の躍進,アジアの應戰-中國威脅論を超えて”,东京:東洋經濟新聞社,2002。
②Ronald-Host, David(2003),“Global Supply Networks and Multilateral Trade Linkages: A Structural Analysis of East Asia”, ADB Institute Discussion Paper Series.
③朴繁洵(主编)(2005),“东亚:寻找共同发展”,首尔,三星经济研究所。
④Okamoto Susumu, Spiral Pattern of Development and Triangular Trade Structure as a Regional Manufacturing Platform Structure, from White Paper on International Economy and Trade 2005.
②杨正位:《国际产业转移与我国的对策》,《求是》2005年第3期,第57页。
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①陈刚、陈红儿:《区际产业转移探微》,《贵州社会科学》,2001年第4期。
①本部分主要来源于当代西方著名的国际关系政治经济学权威罗伯特·吉尔平研究国际政治经济学代表作《全球政治经济学:解读国际政治秩序》(2001年),第五章中的相关论述。
②Paul R. Krugman, Geography and Trade, Cambidge:MIT Press, 1991.
③Richard R. N(1984).
①[美]保罗·克鲁格曼著,张兆杰译:《地理和贸易》,北京:北京大学出版社、中国人民大学出版社,2000年12月第一版,第70-72页。
①李平著:《技术扩散理论及实证研究》,太原:山西出版社,1999年3月第1版,第20页。
①卢根鑫:《试论国际产业转移的经济动因及其效应》,《上海社会科学院学术季刊》, 1994年第4期,第34页。
①本部分及下部分中关于产品周期理论的论述参见鲁桐(2001):《产品周期理论的意义及其缺陷》,old.iwep.org.cn/chinese/gerenzhuye/lutong/wenzhang/chan_pin_zhou_qi-lutong.pdf。
①下面的介绍来自[日]小岛清著,周宝廉译:《对外贸易论》,天津:南开大学出版社,1987年1月第1版,第十三章的相关内容。
①本部分的相关模型及详细论述可见藤田昌久、保罗·克鲁格曼、安东尼·J·维纳布尔斯(2005),第14章,或其英文原版第13章,以及安虎森(2005),第13章。
①a)行走在失衡空间解读中美贸易巨额顺差的真相,http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20050626/11471725393.shtml; b)中国人民银行:《二○○六年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》第四部分宏观经济分析; c)www.bea.gov。
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①本部分主要来源于当代西方著名的国际关系政治经济学权威罗伯特·吉尔平研究国际政治经济学代表作《全球政治经济学:解读国际政治秩序》(2001年),第五章中的相关论述。
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①本部分及下部分中关于产品周期理论的论述参见鲁桐(2001):《产品周期理论的意义及其缺陷》,old.iwep.org.cn/chinese/gerenzhuye/lutong/wenzhang/chan_pin_zhou_qi-lutong.pdf。
①下面的介绍来自[日]小岛清著,周宝廉译:《对外贸易论》,天津:南开大学出版社,1987年1月第1版,第十三章的相关内容。
①本部分的相关模型及详细论述可见藤田昌久、保罗·克鲁格曼、安东尼·J·维纳布尔斯(2005),第14章,或其英文原版第13章,以及安虎森(2005),第13章。
①a)行走在失衡空间解读中美贸易巨额顺差的真相,http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20050626/11471725393.shtml; b)中国人民银行:《二○○六年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》第四部分宏观经济分析; c)www.bea.gov。
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