我国药学服务型人才需求预测研究
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摘要
随着社会经济水平的增长,医药产业和医疗卫生服务业发展迅速,人们生活水平逐步提高,对健康的需求也日益增长。药学服务作为卫生保健领域重要环节,日益凸显出其重要的地位,人们对药师的需求日渐旺盛,以培养药师为主的药学服务型人才培养已成为国际药学教育动态发展趋势,得到了国际药学界的普遍认同。但我国药师型人才培养还很落后,与发达国家和比邻的国家相比还有一定的差距,现行的药学教育模式和目标已出现了落后于社会需求的滞后现象,药师型人才培养还没有成为我国高等药学教育的主流,培养一定规模与数量的适应社会需求的药学服务型人才,既是国情的需要也顺应国际药学教育动态发展趋势。本论文正是在此思想的指导下,建构了符合我国国情发展需要的药师人力资源规模发展的优化模型,并根据预测结果制定了我国药师型人才培养规模发展规划。这一基础和前沿探索性研究对于指导我国药学教育改革,推进药学教育改革的进程,以使我国药学高等教育能够以适度超前的发展速度,培养更多更好的,与社会需求相适应的专门人才,更好地为我国社会主义现代化建设服务,为构建和谐社会服务,为全面建设小康社会做好药学服务人才的资源储备具有重要意义。
(1)综合分析了我国现时政治经济发展的整体水平,为药师型人才培养创造了政治环境和现实环境。对国际药学教育动态发展进行了概述,明确了药师型人才培养已成为未来药学教育发展趋势。对我国药学教育现状及存在的问题进行了简要分析。最后对本课题的意义进行阐述,明确了我们要深入研究我国药师型人才培养的发展趋势,对中国未来经济和社会发展进行把握,参照发达国家当时的经济与社会发展水平建构数据模型,对药师需求总量进行预测,以期能够为制定药学服务型人才的培养规模奠定基础,提供参考的主旨。
(2)对美国药学人才培养现状进行了研究并归纳总结。在明晰了现时的美国药学人才培养已把Pharm.D.职业学位教育作为药学学生的第一学位教育后,作出了药学服务型人才的培养已成为美国高等药学教育的主流的判断。随后,对美国药学人才培养过程进行了历史回顾,初步掌握了药学人才培养发展变化的历史轨迹,即美国药学服务型人才的培养是如何完成从B.S——B.S+Pharm.D——Pharm.D的过渡的。通过对美国药学人才培养历史发展过程的研究,提出应该面对当代市场的需求,积极地对我国高等药学教育进行改革,以培养同未来药学实践相适应的服务型人才。
(3)对日本药学教育的历史进行了回顾,明确了日本药学教育的六个发展阶段:药学教育萌芽期(1873-1879)、药学教育初具规模期(1880-1911)、药学教育初步发展时期(1912-1944)、药学教育体系的改革期(1945-1960)、药学教育快速发展期(1961-1983)、药学教育模式改革的矛盾和争论期(1984-2004)。接下来,又对日本药学人才培养现状进行了研究,明晰了日本现时药学教育的特点。运用比较分析方法对我国与日本两个国家药学教育现存问题进行了比较,最后提出,从发达国家走过的历程,服务型药师人才的培养是高等药学教育发展的必然趋势。
(4)对东南亚部分国家和地区的药学教育现状进行了全面的调查研究。发现,近年来东南亚地区药学教育正处于一个改革与蓬勃发展阶段,随着对药学服务质量和数量需求的增长,尤其是美国6年制Pharm.D.药学职业教育的成功,在东南亚的一些国家中,将4年制的药学教育改为6年制的趋势已悄然兴起。泰国是亚洲第一个引入6年制Pharm.D.药学职业教育的国家,1999年率先在Naresuan大学登陆,迄今为止已有5所学校采纳了该学制体系。其改革与发展的原动力无疑来自于这一地区社会经济的快速发展和人们对健康保健需求的增加,当然也离不开专业学会乃至政府的推动与支持。尽管东南亚地区药学教育改革与发展与发达国家相比滞后数十年,但是与其自身国家与地区的社会经济发展及人们的健康需求是相适应的。
(5)对印度药学教育的现状、面临的国际和国内形势以及药学领域本身存在的问题和发生的变化进行了深入细致的研究分析,我们发现其与中国药学教育的处境有较大的相似性。两国都是人口大国,都是发展中国家,过去几十年以来社会经济都得到了快速发展,药学教育同样都面临着改革与发展的问题。但印度现在已认识到了自身的不足,正在从各个方面积极地推动药学教育改革,向以培养药学服务型人才为主的教育模式转变,以适应未来社会的发展变化。相比之下,我们有些滞后。
(6)对我国药学教育的发展史、药学教育的发展特点及存在的不足、我国临床药学教育现状及在我国建立药师型人才培养机制的必要性和可行性进行了深入地分析。明确了我国药学人才培养的未来发展趋势,培养一定规模与数量的适应社会需求的药学服务型人才,既是国情的需要也顺应了国际药学教育动态发展趋势。提出要进一步深化改革高等药学教育,转变传统的药学教育思想,调整传统的药学教育学科专业结构,创新药学人才培养模式,建立与之相适应的药师型人才培养体系。
(7)阐明了人力资源需求预测的概念、特点、原则和程序等基本问题,对人力资源需求预测方法分定性和定量两大类进行归纳总结。介绍了国内、外关于对药师人力资源需求预测的研究情况。建构美、日药师人力资源规模发展的回归方程,探求药师人力资源规模发展的规律。首先,运用一元线性回归方法对美国和日本两个国家药剂师与经济社会发展规律互动关系进行研究,验证、统计药剂师的发展变化轨迹与所筛选的各指标间具有相关性。其次,运用偏相关分析探讨美国和日本两个国家各指标之间是否存在相互作用关系,以及各因素之间是否存在独立性,剔除不相干指标,分别找出影响药剂师发展的主要因素。并结合两个国家现有的医疗保障体制分析了造成影响两国药师发展的主要因素和不同的原因。第三,运用多元线性回归方法建构美、日药师人力资源规模发展的回归方程。第四,运用聚类分析方法对美、日两国药师人力资源发展规律的异同进行比较,明确两个国家药师发展现状处于的阶段。日本药师发展与美国药师发展处于同一阶段,但日本处于第三阶段的初始阶段,其药师发展情况仍然处于高速调整发展阶段,这与日本国家的现状也是相吻合的,因此断定,日本药师发展在近一段时间内还将经历一个快速发展期,然后趋于稳定。而美国药师发展相对比较成熟,从分类情况来看,其是处于稳定发展阶段。
(8)建构我国药师人力资源规模发展的优化模型。首先,对中国药师发展的现状进行了实证研究。采用相关统计方法,构建了我国药师人力资源规模按现状发展的回归方程,验证了中国存在的问题,明确了我国药师人力资源规模发展与社会发展实际状况之间存在着显著矛盾。其次,运用时间序列法分析抑制我国药师人力资源规模发展速度的原因。从影响药师型药学服务型人才发展的所在行业投入占GDP的比率变化趋势,分析我国与美、日两国之间的差距,合理的分析中国存在的问题,逐步探讨出抑制我国药师人力资源队伍发展的主要原因,找到了非常态发展的重要的变化数率指标。第三,运用时间序列法探讨各速率变化指标的规律模型,结合前面得到的各国预测回归方程,我们得到美、中、日三国自然发展状态下的药师发展模型,此模型求得的美国2016年药师人员数与美国官方统计局发布的2016年药师人员预测数进行比照,其相近程度为98.14%。第四,采用最小二乘法原则对各变化数率指标进行拟合回归,得到三个主要因子与时间序列的关系模型分别为:Y_1=e~(-0.023-0418x),Y_2=0.001X+0.02,Y_3=-0.049+0.028~*ln(x)。优化后的药师人力资源规模发展的数学模型为:Y=k_1Y_1+k_2Y_2+k_3Y_3+C。经过拟合可求得上述常值,并进行预测和控制未来10-18年药师规模的发展情况。第五,利用C语言编写了三国预测与控制模型系统软件,经过运算得出:在2020年,中国的药剂师人数约为67.22人/十万人,在置信度为100~*(1-0.05)%时,药剂师人数/十万人其可信区间为[63.4,71.02],同时该结果经过SPSS软件检验,结果相近度接近于98.9%。证明软件运行的可靠性。第六,依据社会需求和药师人力资源发展预测结果,对药学服务型人才培养进行规划。以我国现有的药学高等教育规模为基本资料,以1983——2006年招生人数与毕业人数历史演变轨迹作为两者之间的内在变化规律,按照对2020年药师需求总数预测的结果,预测药学专业毕业(药剂师)人力的发展状况,给出了我国药学服务型人才的培养规划:从现在起到2020年,招生人数每年平均增长率约为26.91%,相当于平均每年需增加3万人左右,并且所有药学专业毕业人力都作为药学服务型人才培养,才能达到前面按照社会需求和经济发展水平对药师人力资源预测的结果,满足人们对健康照护的需求。
With economic growth,rapid development of medicinal industry and health and medical service industry as well as stable improvement in people's living standard,people demand more increasingly for health,so that pharmaceutical service,a significant segment in hygiene,becomes more and more critical,and the demand for pharmacists soars up.Although it has been widely accepted that dynamic development trend of international pharmacologic education is to cultivate service-type talents,with a focus on the training of pharmacists,the training of pharmacists in our country is far too backward,lagging behind developed countries and adjoining countries,the current pharmacologic educational pattern and objectives can not meet social demand,and pharmacists' training hasn't become the main stream.It is the requirement of the present conditions of our country and international developmental trend to culture pharmaceutical service-type talents on a large scale.Based on the above philosophy,this paper proposes an optimized pattern for pharmacist human resource(HR) development that corresponds with the needs of our country's development,and regulates related development project according to scientific prediction.This basic and advancing explorative study play significant roles in guiding and advancing the reforms in pharmacologic education in our country in order to adjust the higher education to the advanced development rate,to cultivate more and better specialized talents to meet social needs,to serve the socialist modernization construction and the construction of a harmonious society,and to reserve talents for the building of a well-off society in an all-round way.
(1) Based on the synthesized analysis of the current situations in politics and economy,we create the political and real environments for nourishing pharmacist-type talents.This paper outlines the dynamic development in the international society,clarifies pharmacist-type-talent training has become a developmental trend in the future.Meanwhile,this paper makes a brief analysis of the present situation and existing problems in our country's pharmacologic education. Last but not least,it elaborates on the significance of the current project,making it clear that we need to study the trend of the above-mentioned training pattern deeply,referring to the corresponding patterns of developed countries,predict total demand for pharmacists on the basis of our country's future economy and social development,with the purpose of laying a solid foundation for and guiding the development of clinical pharmaceutical development.
(2) This paper studies and summarizes the current training situation in the United States, clarifing that Pharm.D.vocational degree education is the first degree for pharmaceutical majors in U.S.,we make a judgment that the training of pharmaceutical service-type talents has become the main stream in U.S..Subsequently,we review the pharmaceutical talent- training process in U.S., preliminarily grasp the tracks of its development,i.e.how American pharmaceutical service-type talents training transformes from S.S—S.S + Pharm.D.—Pharm.D..Through careful study of the development of American pharmaceutical service-type talent training,we propose we should actively reform higher pharmaceutical education in our country to cultivate imperative talents in pharmacy to meet the market demand.
(3) This paper reviews the history of Japanese pharmacologic education,making it clear Japanese pharmacologic education undergoes six phases,namely budding phase(1873-1879)、primary scaling phase(1880-1911)、primary developing phase(1912-1944)、reformation phase (1945-1960)、booming phase(1961-1983)、contradiction and controversy phase(1984-2004). Following that,we examine the current situation of talent training in Japan,summarizing its features.Comparing the existing problems in China and Japan,we finally put forward the training of service-type pharmacists is an inexorable trend.We expect we may utilize the study of Japanese corresponding training pattern to serve our country and meet the market demand,zealously reform, establish advanced educational philosophy and produce talents suiting the pharmaceutical practice in the future.
(4) This paper surveys fully the present situation of pharmaceutical education in East Asia, we find pharmacologic education in these areas are undergoing reform and at a booming stage.A phenomenon deserving our attention is that some eastern Asian countries are transforming the 4-year pharmacologic education to a 6-year one.Thailand is the first to introduce 6-year system in Naresuan in 1999,till now 5 universities have adopted such system.It is officially reported that Taiwan University will start the 6-year Pharm.D.system in June,2009,besides,Korea also shows great interest.Motive for reform and development in these countries derives undoubtedly from the economic fast development and people's demands for health and care in these areas,besides the push and support of specialized unions and government.Though pharmaceutical reform and development in eastern Asian countries lag decades behind developed countries,it suits its social and economic development and people's needs.The development of those countries will surely hint us positively.As a pharmaceutical teacher,it is necessary and urgent to realize and promote the launching of training needy talents to contribute the great-leap-forward development of pharmaceutical enterprises and the harmonious development of our country.
(5) This paper studies and analyzes India's current situation、its internal and external circumstances as well as its existing problems and changes,we realize there is much similarity to China.Both are developing countries with a large population,and in the past decades,both have developed rapidly in economy,and presently are facing reform and development problems in pharmacologic education.India has realized its shortcomings,and is conducting reforms from various angles,with the aim of transforming its pattern for training service-type talents to suit future development.In contrast,our steps seem slow.The thirst for pharmaceutical service-type talents is a problem that we have to face and solve immediately.It is the responsibility of the society,including pharmaceutical working staff as a whole,to realize and push the training of service-type pharmaceutical talents.
(6) This paper makes a deep analysis of history、features、shortcomings,present situation of clinical pharmaceutics and necessity and feasibility of establishing related training mechanism in our country,making clear the developmental trend of talent training in our country,realizing that it goes with the international trend to nourish great numbers of service-type pharmaceutical talents on a large scale.We need to deepen and convert traditional philosophy higher pharmacologic education, modify major construction in traditional education,innovate talent training model and establish corresponding system.
(7) This paper elaborates on such basic issues as concept、features、principles and procedures for prediction of HR demand,summarizes methods for predictions in quality and quantity.The paper introduces domestic and overseas researches in demand predictions of pharmacist HR,constructs a most optimized model for development in pharmacist HR.Firstly, applying simple linear regression,we study the interactive relationship between pharmacist training and regularities of social economic development in U.S.and Japan,testifies and summarizes the correlations between development track and the sieved indices.Secondly,using the method of partial correlation,we dip into whether there is dynamic interdependent relationship between the corresponding indices in U.S and Japan,and whether there exists independence between all related factors,if so,we eliminate irrelafive indices and then chase down factors affecting the development of pharmacist.On the basis of their respective social security systems,we analyze the reasons why factors affecting the two countries' pharmacist development are different.Thirdly,exerting multi linear regression,we construct the regression equation for U.S.and Japan.Fourthly,exercising cluster analysis,we compare the regularities of the pharmacist HR development in U.S.and Japan, pointing out the present phases of the two countries.
(8) This paper constrct the mathematical model for the optimized pharmacist HR scaling development.Firstly,we conduct empirical research on the current situation of pharmacist development in China.Applying correlation statistical method,we construct the regression equation for Chinese pharmacist HR development,testifies its existing problems,making it clear that there does exist striking contradictions between the scaling development in pharmacist HR and social development.Secondly,using chronological listing method,we analyze the reasons inhibiting the speed of scaling development in pharmacist HR in China.Meanwhile,we analyze the gap between China and U.S and Japan,objectively analyze the existing problems in China,hence probing the main reasons curbing its pharmacist development,finding out the indices for the rate of change for abnormal development in this field.Thirdly,using chronological listing method,we investigate the regularity model for the indices for the rate of change,combining the regression equations concluded previously,we reach the pharmacist development models for the three countries in a state of natural development,in the meantime,we compare the number of pharmacist in U.S.in 2016 calculated on the basis of our model and the officially issued number by the U.S.Statistic Bureau, finding the two numbers approach each other by a coincidence degree of 98.14%,which indicates there is high reliability of our research.Fourthly,using method of least square,we fit regression for all changing rate indices,and obtain the relation models for the three main factors and chronological orders:Y_1=e~(-0.023-0.418x),Y_2=0.001X+0.02,Y_3=-0.049+0.028~*ln(x).The mathematical model for the optimized pharmacist HR scaling development is Y=k_1Y_1+k_2Y_2+k_3Y_3+C,in which k_1、k_2、k_3、and Care constants.By fitting can we obtain values of the above constants and predict and curb its development in the following 10 to 18 years.Fifthly,we utilize Language C to create a soft ware to test the reliability and practicability of the models.We calculate that there will be about 67.22 pharmacists out of every 10 thousand people in China in 2020,with a credibility interval of [63.4,71.02],which approaches the result from SPSS by 98.9%.Sixthly,we program the training of pharmaceutical service-type talents,based on the prediction of social demand and pharmacist HR development.With the present pharmacologic higher education scale as basic statistics,and the numbers of enrollment and graduates from1983 to 2006 as its internal discipline,we predict the future development of pharmaceutical graduates and propose a training program:up to 2020,the enrollment will increase by approximate 26.91%annually,equal to an increase of 30 thousand in enrollment,in addition,only by cultivating all the graduates as pharmaceutical service-type talents can we meet social and economic demands for pharmacist HR prediction,hence meeting the demand for health care.
(1)综合分析了我国现时政治经济发展的整体水平,为药师型人才培养创造了政治环境和现实环境。对国际药学教育动态发展进行了概述,明确了药师型人才培养已成为未来药学教育发展趋势。对我国药学教育现状及存在的问题进行了简要分析。最后对本课题的意义进行阐述,明确了我们要深入研究我国药师型人才培养的发展趋势,对中国未来经济和社会发展进行把握,参照发达国家当时的经济与社会发展水平建构数据模型,对药师需求总量进行预测,以期能够为制定药学服务型人才的培养规模奠定基础,提供参考的主旨。
(2)对美国药学人才培养现状进行了研究并归纳总结。在明晰了现时的美国药学人才培养已把Pharm.D.职业学位教育作为药学学生的第一学位教育后,作出了药学服务型人才的培养已成为美国高等药学教育的主流的判断。随后,对美国药学人才培养过程进行了历史回顾,初步掌握了药学人才培养发展变化的历史轨迹,即美国药学服务型人才的培养是如何完成从B.S——B.S+Pharm.D——Pharm.D的过渡的。通过对美国药学人才培养历史发展过程的研究,提出应该面对当代市场的需求,积极地对我国高等药学教育进行改革,以培养同未来药学实践相适应的服务型人才。
(3)对日本药学教育的历史进行了回顾,明确了日本药学教育的六个发展阶段:药学教育萌芽期(1873-1879)、药学教育初具规模期(1880-1911)、药学教育初步发展时期(1912-1944)、药学教育体系的改革期(1945-1960)、药学教育快速发展期(1961-1983)、药学教育模式改革的矛盾和争论期(1984-2004)。接下来,又对日本药学人才培养现状进行了研究,明晰了日本现时药学教育的特点。运用比较分析方法对我国与日本两个国家药学教育现存问题进行了比较,最后提出,从发达国家走过的历程,服务型药师人才的培养是高等药学教育发展的必然趋势。
(4)对东南亚部分国家和地区的药学教育现状进行了全面的调查研究。发现,近年来东南亚地区药学教育正处于一个改革与蓬勃发展阶段,随着对药学服务质量和数量需求的增长,尤其是美国6年制Pharm.D.药学职业教育的成功,在东南亚的一些国家中,将4年制的药学教育改为6年制的趋势已悄然兴起。泰国是亚洲第一个引入6年制Pharm.D.药学职业教育的国家,1999年率先在Naresuan大学登陆,迄今为止已有5所学校采纳了该学制体系。其改革与发展的原动力无疑来自于这一地区社会经济的快速发展和人们对健康保健需求的增加,当然也离不开专业学会乃至政府的推动与支持。尽管东南亚地区药学教育改革与发展与发达国家相比滞后数十年,但是与其自身国家与地区的社会经济发展及人们的健康需求是相适应的。
(5)对印度药学教育的现状、面临的国际和国内形势以及药学领域本身存在的问题和发生的变化进行了深入细致的研究分析,我们发现其与中国药学教育的处境有较大的相似性。两国都是人口大国,都是发展中国家,过去几十年以来社会经济都得到了快速发展,药学教育同样都面临着改革与发展的问题。但印度现在已认识到了自身的不足,正在从各个方面积极地推动药学教育改革,向以培养药学服务型人才为主的教育模式转变,以适应未来社会的发展变化。相比之下,我们有些滞后。
(6)对我国药学教育的发展史、药学教育的发展特点及存在的不足、我国临床药学教育现状及在我国建立药师型人才培养机制的必要性和可行性进行了深入地分析。明确了我国药学人才培养的未来发展趋势,培养一定规模与数量的适应社会需求的药学服务型人才,既是国情的需要也顺应了国际药学教育动态发展趋势。提出要进一步深化改革高等药学教育,转变传统的药学教育思想,调整传统的药学教育学科专业结构,创新药学人才培养模式,建立与之相适应的药师型人才培养体系。
(7)阐明了人力资源需求预测的概念、特点、原则和程序等基本问题,对人力资源需求预测方法分定性和定量两大类进行归纳总结。介绍了国内、外关于对药师人力资源需求预测的研究情况。建构美、日药师人力资源规模发展的回归方程,探求药师人力资源规模发展的规律。首先,运用一元线性回归方法对美国和日本两个国家药剂师与经济社会发展规律互动关系进行研究,验证、统计药剂师的发展变化轨迹与所筛选的各指标间具有相关性。其次,运用偏相关分析探讨美国和日本两个国家各指标之间是否存在相互作用关系,以及各因素之间是否存在独立性,剔除不相干指标,分别找出影响药剂师发展的主要因素。并结合两个国家现有的医疗保障体制分析了造成影响两国药师发展的主要因素和不同的原因。第三,运用多元线性回归方法建构美、日药师人力资源规模发展的回归方程。第四,运用聚类分析方法对美、日两国药师人力资源发展规律的异同进行比较,明确两个国家药师发展现状处于的阶段。日本药师发展与美国药师发展处于同一阶段,但日本处于第三阶段的初始阶段,其药师发展情况仍然处于高速调整发展阶段,这与日本国家的现状也是相吻合的,因此断定,日本药师发展在近一段时间内还将经历一个快速发展期,然后趋于稳定。而美国药师发展相对比较成熟,从分类情况来看,其是处于稳定发展阶段。
(8)建构我国药师人力资源规模发展的优化模型。首先,对中国药师发展的现状进行了实证研究。采用相关统计方法,构建了我国药师人力资源规模按现状发展的回归方程,验证了中国存在的问题,明确了我国药师人力资源规模发展与社会发展实际状况之间存在着显著矛盾。其次,运用时间序列法分析抑制我国药师人力资源规模发展速度的原因。从影响药师型药学服务型人才发展的所在行业投入占GDP的比率变化趋势,分析我国与美、日两国之间的差距,合理的分析中国存在的问题,逐步探讨出抑制我国药师人力资源队伍发展的主要原因,找到了非常态发展的重要的变化数率指标。第三,运用时间序列法探讨各速率变化指标的规律模型,结合前面得到的各国预测回归方程,我们得到美、中、日三国自然发展状态下的药师发展模型,此模型求得的美国2016年药师人员数与美国官方统计局发布的2016年药师人员预测数进行比照,其相近程度为98.14%。第四,采用最小二乘法原则对各变化数率指标进行拟合回归,得到三个主要因子与时间序列的关系模型分别为:Y_1=e~(-0.023-0418x),Y_2=0.001X+0.02,Y_3=-0.049+0.028~*ln(x)。优化后的药师人力资源规模发展的数学模型为:Y=k_1Y_1+k_2Y_2+k_3Y_3+C。经过拟合可求得上述常值,并进行预测和控制未来10-18年药师规模的发展情况。第五,利用C语言编写了三国预测与控制模型系统软件,经过运算得出:在2020年,中国的药剂师人数约为67.22人/十万人,在置信度为100~*(1-0.05)%时,药剂师人数/十万人其可信区间为[63.4,71.02],同时该结果经过SPSS软件检验,结果相近度接近于98.9%。证明软件运行的可靠性。第六,依据社会需求和药师人力资源发展预测结果,对药学服务型人才培养进行规划。以我国现有的药学高等教育规模为基本资料,以1983——2006年招生人数与毕业人数历史演变轨迹作为两者之间的内在变化规律,按照对2020年药师需求总数预测的结果,预测药学专业毕业(药剂师)人力的发展状况,给出了我国药学服务型人才的培养规划:从现在起到2020年,招生人数每年平均增长率约为26.91%,相当于平均每年需增加3万人左右,并且所有药学专业毕业人力都作为药学服务型人才培养,才能达到前面按照社会需求和经济发展水平对药师人力资源预测的结果,满足人们对健康照护的需求。
With economic growth,rapid development of medicinal industry and health and medical service industry as well as stable improvement in people's living standard,people demand more increasingly for health,so that pharmaceutical service,a significant segment in hygiene,becomes more and more critical,and the demand for pharmacists soars up.Although it has been widely accepted that dynamic development trend of international pharmacologic education is to cultivate service-type talents,with a focus on the training of pharmacists,the training of pharmacists in our country is far too backward,lagging behind developed countries and adjoining countries,the current pharmacologic educational pattern and objectives can not meet social demand,and pharmacists' training hasn't become the main stream.It is the requirement of the present conditions of our country and international developmental trend to culture pharmaceutical service-type talents on a large scale.Based on the above philosophy,this paper proposes an optimized pattern for pharmacist human resource(HR) development that corresponds with the needs of our country's development,and regulates related development project according to scientific prediction.This basic and advancing explorative study play significant roles in guiding and advancing the reforms in pharmacologic education in our country in order to adjust the higher education to the advanced development rate,to cultivate more and better specialized talents to meet social needs,to serve the socialist modernization construction and the construction of a harmonious society,and to reserve talents for the building of a well-off society in an all-round way.
(1) Based on the synthesized analysis of the current situations in politics and economy,we create the political and real environments for nourishing pharmacist-type talents.This paper outlines the dynamic development in the international society,clarifies pharmacist-type-talent training has become a developmental trend in the future.Meanwhile,this paper makes a brief analysis of the present situation and existing problems in our country's pharmacologic education. Last but not least,it elaborates on the significance of the current project,making it clear that we need to study the trend of the above-mentioned training pattern deeply,referring to the corresponding patterns of developed countries,predict total demand for pharmacists on the basis of our country's future economy and social development,with the purpose of laying a solid foundation for and guiding the development of clinical pharmaceutical development.
(2) This paper studies and summarizes the current training situation in the United States, clarifing that Pharm.D.vocational degree education is the first degree for pharmaceutical majors in U.S.,we make a judgment that the training of pharmaceutical service-type talents has become the main stream in U.S..Subsequently,we review the pharmaceutical talent- training process in U.S., preliminarily grasp the tracks of its development,i.e.how American pharmaceutical service-type talents training transformes from S.S—S.S + Pharm.D.—Pharm.D..Through careful study of the development of American pharmaceutical service-type talent training,we propose we should actively reform higher pharmaceutical education in our country to cultivate imperative talents in pharmacy to meet the market demand.
(3) This paper reviews the history of Japanese pharmacologic education,making it clear Japanese pharmacologic education undergoes six phases,namely budding phase(1873-1879)、primary scaling phase(1880-1911)、primary developing phase(1912-1944)、reformation phase (1945-1960)、booming phase(1961-1983)、contradiction and controversy phase(1984-2004). Following that,we examine the current situation of talent training in Japan,summarizing its features.Comparing the existing problems in China and Japan,we finally put forward the training of service-type pharmacists is an inexorable trend.We expect we may utilize the study of Japanese corresponding training pattern to serve our country and meet the market demand,zealously reform, establish advanced educational philosophy and produce talents suiting the pharmaceutical practice in the future.
(4) This paper surveys fully the present situation of pharmaceutical education in East Asia, we find pharmacologic education in these areas are undergoing reform and at a booming stage.A phenomenon deserving our attention is that some eastern Asian countries are transforming the 4-year pharmacologic education to a 6-year one.Thailand is the first to introduce 6-year system in Naresuan in 1999,till now 5 universities have adopted such system.It is officially reported that Taiwan University will start the 6-year Pharm.D.system in June,2009,besides,Korea also shows great interest.Motive for reform and development in these countries derives undoubtedly from the economic fast development and people's demands for health and care in these areas,besides the push and support of specialized unions and government.Though pharmaceutical reform and development in eastern Asian countries lag decades behind developed countries,it suits its social and economic development and people's needs.The development of those countries will surely hint us positively.As a pharmaceutical teacher,it is necessary and urgent to realize and promote the launching of training needy talents to contribute the great-leap-forward development of pharmaceutical enterprises and the harmonious development of our country.
(5) This paper studies and analyzes India's current situation、its internal and external circumstances as well as its existing problems and changes,we realize there is much similarity to China.Both are developing countries with a large population,and in the past decades,both have developed rapidly in economy,and presently are facing reform and development problems in pharmacologic education.India has realized its shortcomings,and is conducting reforms from various angles,with the aim of transforming its pattern for training service-type talents to suit future development.In contrast,our steps seem slow.The thirst for pharmaceutical service-type talents is a problem that we have to face and solve immediately.It is the responsibility of the society,including pharmaceutical working staff as a whole,to realize and push the training of service-type pharmaceutical talents.
(6) This paper makes a deep analysis of history、features、shortcomings,present situation of clinical pharmaceutics and necessity and feasibility of establishing related training mechanism in our country,making clear the developmental trend of talent training in our country,realizing that it goes with the international trend to nourish great numbers of service-type pharmaceutical talents on a large scale.We need to deepen and convert traditional philosophy higher pharmacologic education, modify major construction in traditional education,innovate talent training model and establish corresponding system.
(7) This paper elaborates on such basic issues as concept、features、principles and procedures for prediction of HR demand,summarizes methods for predictions in quality and quantity.The paper introduces domestic and overseas researches in demand predictions of pharmacist HR,constructs a most optimized model for development in pharmacist HR.Firstly, applying simple linear regression,we study the interactive relationship between pharmacist training and regularities of social economic development in U.S.and Japan,testifies and summarizes the correlations between development track and the sieved indices.Secondly,using the method of partial correlation,we dip into whether there is dynamic interdependent relationship between the corresponding indices in U.S and Japan,and whether there exists independence between all related factors,if so,we eliminate irrelafive indices and then chase down factors affecting the development of pharmacist.On the basis of their respective social security systems,we analyze the reasons why factors affecting the two countries' pharmacist development are different.Thirdly,exerting multi linear regression,we construct the regression equation for U.S.and Japan.Fourthly,exercising cluster analysis,we compare the regularities of the pharmacist HR development in U.S.and Japan, pointing out the present phases of the two countries.
(8) This paper constrct the mathematical model for the optimized pharmacist HR scaling development.Firstly,we conduct empirical research on the current situation of pharmacist development in China.Applying correlation statistical method,we construct the regression equation for Chinese pharmacist HR development,testifies its existing problems,making it clear that there does exist striking contradictions between the scaling development in pharmacist HR and social development.Secondly,using chronological listing method,we analyze the reasons inhibiting the speed of scaling development in pharmacist HR in China.Meanwhile,we analyze the gap between China and U.S and Japan,objectively analyze the existing problems in China,hence probing the main reasons curbing its pharmacist development,finding out the indices for the rate of change for abnormal development in this field.Thirdly,using chronological listing method,we investigate the regularity model for the indices for the rate of change,combining the regression equations concluded previously,we reach the pharmacist development models for the three countries in a state of natural development,in the meantime,we compare the number of pharmacist in U.S.in 2016 calculated on the basis of our model and the officially issued number by the U.S.Statistic Bureau, finding the two numbers approach each other by a coincidence degree of 98.14%,which indicates there is high reliability of our research.Fourthly,using method of least square,we fit regression for all changing rate indices,and obtain the relation models for the three main factors and chronological orders:Y_1=e~(-0.023-0.418x),Y_2=0.001X+0.02,Y_3=-0.049+0.028~*ln(x).The mathematical model for the optimized pharmacist HR scaling development is Y=k_1Y_1+k_2Y_2+k_3Y_3+C,in which k_1、k_2、k_3、and Care constants.By fitting can we obtain values of the above constants and predict and curb its development in the following 10 to 18 years.Fifthly,we utilize Language C to create a soft ware to test the reliability and practicability of the models.We calculate that there will be about 67.22 pharmacists out of every 10 thousand people in China in 2020,with a credibility interval of [63.4,71.02],which approaches the result from SPSS by 98.9%.Sixthly,we program the training of pharmaceutical service-type talents,based on the prediction of social demand and pharmacist HR development.With the present pharmacologic higher education scale as basic statistics,and the numbers of enrollment and graduates from1983 to 2006 as its internal discipline,we predict the future development of pharmaceutical graduates and propose a training program:up to 2020,the enrollment will increase by approximate 26.91%annually,equal to an increase of 30 thousand in enrollment,in addition,only by cultivating all the graduates as pharmaceutical service-type talents can we meet social and economic demands for pharmacist HR prediction,hence meeting the demand for health care.
引文
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