一体化大型化工生产系统可靠性研究及应用
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摘要
近年来，生产系统可靠性的研究应用领域越来越广泛，生产系统的组织可靠性分析、人因可靠性分析以及动态环境下的系统可靠性分析等已成为组织管理、工业工程以及行为科学界最受关注的热点问题之一。目前，工程实践中生产系统可靠性分析主要集中于人员因素可靠性方面，较少或没有对系统内部组织结构及组织结构演化而引起的系统整体可靠性问题进行深入研究。因此，对于生产系统可靠性的研究，可在充分考虑并结合人因可靠性研究的基础上，对由人员组成的系统组织结构及其结构演化对生产系统的可靠性开展研究。
本文在系统研究国内外相关研究成果的基础上，针对本世纪以来国内外新近出现的大型化工生产系统的可靠性问题，分别从人因、组织、动态演化等方面对其展开了深入研究，并为此新型的生产系统的应用过程提供一定的理论指导。论文主要研究了以下内容：
①对生产系统的分类、可靠性、运营模式、人因可靠性、组织可靠性以及动态演化等问题进行了系统的归纳与总结，指出了现有研究不足，确定了论文的研究目的。
②对大型化工生产系统的运营模式及可靠性影响因素进行了研究。首先，对大型化工生产系统的概念和特征进行了阐述和分析；其次，提出了面向循环经济的大型化工生产系统一体化运营模式，并对该模式提出的背景、内容、优势、风险及动态协同策略进行了阐述；最后，从人因、组织、动态演化等方面分析了一体化模式下的大型化工生产系统可靠性影响因素，为后续章节的研究奠定了基础。
③构建了人因影响下的大型化工生产系统可靠性研究模型。首先，论文对人因失误、人因失误影响因素以及现有的人因失误可靠性模型进行了分析；其次，对人因可靠性问题及其研究现状和研究趋势进行了分析；然后，论文以大型化工生产系统可靠性为研究对象，构建了人因影响下的大型化工生产系统可靠性模型，并综合利用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法方对其进行定量分析；最后，通过一个算例验证了该模型的可行性与有效性。
④建立了多组织协同下的大型化工生产系统可靠性研究模型。首先，对组织分类和组织属性进行了研究，引入了单组织和多组织两种组织模式并对其进行了定义；其次，在对系统组织可靠性问题描述的基础上，依据“牛鞭效应”和“蝴蝶效应”原理以及协同学理论对一体化系统中多组织间可靠性影响因素指标进行了选取；然后，就任务小组、直线制组织、直线职能制组织结构演化路径，分别建立了任务小组制组织信息信道模型、直线制组织信息信道模型以及直线职能制组织信息信道模型3种信息信道数模型，为研究系统纵向组织信息传递以及横向组织信息传递及时性、可靠性问题提供了模板；最后，通过一个算例证明了该模型的可行性与有效性。
⑤创建了动态演化下的大型化工生产系统可靠性模型。首先，在对系统动态演化问题描述的基础上，提出了大型化工生产系统动态演化因素：人员变革与组织变革；其次，结合系统动力学建模理论与方法，对系统因素动态演化条件下的系统可靠性问题建立了可靠性分析模型；最后，进行了算例分析，验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。
⑥结合本论文课题所依托的国内某大型大型化工生产系统建设项目，从项目建设的初期、中期、后期三个阶段分别在系统构成要素人员、组织、及其要素演化层面进行部分研究成果的实施应用。
⑦对本文研究工作进行了总结，并对生产系统可靠性问题的进一步研究工作进行了展望。
In recent years, more and more attentions have been paid to researches onreliability in production system, and thus analyses on organization reliability, humanreliability and system reliability in dynamic environment have become hot issues in thefield of Organization Management, Industrial Engineering and Behavior Science.However, the present reliability analyses in production system have mainly focusedon personnel factors but little, if there is any, has been discussed on reliability problemscaused by the evolution of the inner system structure and the organization structure.Therefore, researches on reliability in production system should embody fullconsiderations and combinations of analyses of human factors and the systemorganization structure and the structure evolution.
Based on the research achievements related to the system, this passage, aiming atreliability problems in domestic and foreign large-scale chemical production systems inthis century, tries to provide certain theoretical guidance for the process of new thingsfrom human factors, organization, and the dynamic evolution respectively. The papermainly contains:
①Conclude and summarize the production system classification, productionsystem reliability, the integrated production mode, the human factors reliability anddynamic evolution, pointing out shortcomings of the present researches, and identify theaim of this paper.
②Study the integration operational modes and reliability influencing factors inthe large-scale chemical production system. Firstly, illustrate the concepts andcharacteristics in large-scale chemical production system; Next, put forward the circulareconomy-oriented integration operation mode in the large-scale chemical productionsystem, and state the background, content, advantages, risk and dynamic collaborativestrategies of the mode; Finally, analyze reliability influencing factors of the integrationmode in terms of human factors, organization, dynamic evolution to lay a foundation forthe subsequent chapters.
③Build the reliability research model in the large-scale chemical productionsystem with the influence of human factors. Firstly, introduce human errors, influencingfactors set of human errors and reliability mode of human errors; Next, analyze theproblems and current situation and the trend of human factors reliability; Then, build the reliability research model in the large-scale chemical production system with theinfluence of human factors, which aims at the production system reliability, takingadvantages of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to make quantitativeanalyses. Finally, verify the feasibility and availability of the model with acomputational example.
④Build the reliability research model in the large-scale chemical productionsystem with the influence of multi-organization collaboration. Firstly, study theattributions and classifications of the organizations and introduce the model of singleorganization and multi-organization and define them. Next, select the index ofinfluencing factor of multi-organization reliability in the integrated system according tobullwhip effect and butterfly principles as well as synergy theory. Then, threeorganization information channel models: information channel model of task forceorganization, line organization and line and function organization are establishedrespectively from the evolution path of task group, line organization and functionalstructure organization, these three kinds of information-channel-count models provide atemplate for the study of the vertical information delivery and the timeliness as well asreliability issues in lateral transfer. Finally, verify the feasibility and effectiveness ofthis model through the application of a certain example.
⑤Construct a model of the reliability research model in the large-scale chemicalproduction system under dynamic evolution.Firstly, staff-reform andorganization-reform, the dynamic evolution factors of large-scale chemical productionsystem were introduced based on the description of system dynamic evolution problem.Secondly, elect a reliability-analyses model which focuses on reliability of large-scalechemical production system under the condition of dynamic evolution based on systemdynamic modeling theory and methods. Finally, verify the feasibility and effectivenessof this model through the application of a certain example.
⑥The research results are implemented and applied on the constitute elements ofpersonnel, organization, and its elements from the early, medium and late stages of theproject construction combined with this project: the construction of a large-scaleintegration of the large-scale chemical production.
⑦Summarize the researching work for this paper and further outlook theresearching work of the production system reliability.
本文在系统研究国内外相关研究成果的基础上，针对本世纪以来国内外新近出现的大型化工生产系统的可靠性问题，分别从人因、组织、动态演化等方面对其展开了深入研究，并为此新型的生产系统的应用过程提供一定的理论指导。论文主要研究了以下内容：
①对生产系统的分类、可靠性、运营模式、人因可靠性、组织可靠性以及动态演化等问题进行了系统的归纳与总结，指出了现有研究不足，确定了论文的研究目的。
②对大型化工生产系统的运营模式及可靠性影响因素进行了研究。首先，对大型化工生产系统的概念和特征进行了阐述和分析；其次，提出了面向循环经济的大型化工生产系统一体化运营模式，并对该模式提出的背景、内容、优势、风险及动态协同策略进行了阐述；最后，从人因、组织、动态演化等方面分析了一体化模式下的大型化工生产系统可靠性影响因素，为后续章节的研究奠定了基础。
③构建了人因影响下的大型化工生产系统可靠性研究模型。首先，论文对人因失误、人因失误影响因素以及现有的人因失误可靠性模型进行了分析；其次，对人因可靠性问题及其研究现状和研究趋势进行了分析；然后，论文以大型化工生产系统可靠性为研究对象，构建了人因影响下的大型化工生产系统可靠性模型，并综合利用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法方对其进行定量分析；最后，通过一个算例验证了该模型的可行性与有效性。
④建立了多组织协同下的大型化工生产系统可靠性研究模型。首先，对组织分类和组织属性进行了研究，引入了单组织和多组织两种组织模式并对其进行了定义；其次，在对系统组织可靠性问题描述的基础上，依据“牛鞭效应”和“蝴蝶效应”原理以及协同学理论对一体化系统中多组织间可靠性影响因素指标进行了选取；然后，就任务小组、直线制组织、直线职能制组织结构演化路径，分别建立了任务小组制组织信息信道模型、直线制组织信息信道模型以及直线职能制组织信息信道模型3种信息信道数模型，为研究系统纵向组织信息传递以及横向组织信息传递及时性、可靠性问题提供了模板；最后，通过一个算例证明了该模型的可行性与有效性。
⑤创建了动态演化下的大型化工生产系统可靠性模型。首先，在对系统动态演化问题描述的基础上，提出了大型化工生产系统动态演化因素：人员变革与组织变革；其次，结合系统动力学建模理论与方法，对系统因素动态演化条件下的系统可靠性问题建立了可靠性分析模型；最后，进行了算例分析，验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。
⑥结合本论文课题所依托的国内某大型大型化工生产系统建设项目，从项目建设的初期、中期、后期三个阶段分别在系统构成要素人员、组织、及其要素演化层面进行部分研究成果的实施应用。
⑦对本文研究工作进行了总结，并对生产系统可靠性问题的进一步研究工作进行了展望。
In recent years, more and more attentions have been paid to researches onreliability in production system, and thus analyses on organization reliability, humanreliability and system reliability in dynamic environment have become hot issues in thefield of Organization Management, Industrial Engineering and Behavior Science.However, the present reliability analyses in production system have mainly focusedon personnel factors but little, if there is any, has been discussed on reliability problemscaused by the evolution of the inner system structure and the organization structure.Therefore, researches on reliability in production system should embody fullconsiderations and combinations of analyses of human factors and the systemorganization structure and the structure evolution.
Based on the research achievements related to the system, this passage, aiming atreliability problems in domestic and foreign large-scale chemical production systems inthis century, tries to provide certain theoretical guidance for the process of new thingsfrom human factors, organization, and the dynamic evolution respectively. The papermainly contains:
①Conclude and summarize the production system classification, productionsystem reliability, the integrated production mode, the human factors reliability anddynamic evolution, pointing out shortcomings of the present researches, and identify theaim of this paper.
②Study the integration operational modes and reliability influencing factors inthe large-scale chemical production system. Firstly, illustrate the concepts andcharacteristics in large-scale chemical production system; Next, put forward the circulareconomy-oriented integration operation mode in the large-scale chemical productionsystem, and state the background, content, advantages, risk and dynamic collaborativestrategies of the mode; Finally, analyze reliability influencing factors of the integrationmode in terms of human factors, organization, dynamic evolution to lay a foundation forthe subsequent chapters.
③Build the reliability research model in the large-scale chemical productionsystem with the influence of human factors. Firstly, introduce human errors, influencingfactors set of human errors and reliability mode of human errors; Next, analyze theproblems and current situation and the trend of human factors reliability; Then, build the reliability research model in the large-scale chemical production system with theinfluence of human factors, which aims at the production system reliability, takingadvantages of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to make quantitativeanalyses. Finally, verify the feasibility and availability of the model with acomputational example.
④Build the reliability research model in the large-scale chemical productionsystem with the influence of multi-organization collaboration. Firstly, study theattributions and classifications of the organizations and introduce the model of singleorganization and multi-organization and define them. Next, select the index ofinfluencing factor of multi-organization reliability in the integrated system according tobullwhip effect and butterfly principles as well as synergy theory. Then, threeorganization information channel models: information channel model of task forceorganization, line organization and line and function organization are establishedrespectively from the evolution path of task group, line organization and functionalstructure organization, these three kinds of information-channel-count models provide atemplate for the study of the vertical information delivery and the timeliness as well asreliability issues in lateral transfer. Finally, verify the feasibility and effectiveness ofthis model through the application of a certain example.
⑤Construct a model of the reliability research model in the large-scale chemicalproduction system under dynamic evolution.Firstly, staff-reform andorganization-reform, the dynamic evolution factors of large-scale chemical productionsystem were introduced based on the description of system dynamic evolution problem.Secondly, elect a reliability-analyses model which focuses on reliability of large-scalechemical production system under the condition of dynamic evolution based on systemdynamic modeling theory and methods. Finally, verify the feasibility and effectivenessof this model through the application of a certain example.
⑥The research results are implemented and applied on the constitute elements ofpersonnel, organization, and its elements from the early, medium and late stages of theproject construction combined with this project: the construction of a large-scaleintegration of the large-scale chemical production.
⑦Summarize the researching work for this paper and further outlook theresearching work of the production system reliability.
引文
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