华北降水时空变化及降水量减少影响因子研究
|
摘要
本论文利用国家气象信息中心整理的全国752站1951-2008年逐日逐月降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析的1951-2008年月平均环流资料、NOAA重构的1951-2008年月平均海温等资料,采用多种统计方法、环流合成分析等方法,综合分析华北降水时空变化及关键影响因子、降水季节演变主模态、印度洋偶极子、东亚季风环流变化与华北夏季降水减少的关系。主要结论如下：
1)华北各区域降水变化不一样,如果研究华北降水整体变化趋势,可能选择山西、河北(含京津)作为代表区更为合理。华北近50年降水减少主要是由于夏季雨量减少造成的,其中夏季雨日减少,尤其暴雨雨日减少造成的影响最为重要；华北近50年雨季峰值雨量显著减小和雨季变长是华北夏季降水量减少的又一个内在特征。
2)华北夏季降水在1965年发生了气候突变,之后降水显著减少,这是由于在1965年之后亚洲中高纬夏季环流发生明显改变造成的。第一,500 hPa高度场环流由突变前的经向环流突出转变为纬向环流突出,贝加尔湖高空槽活动减少,使得华北上升运动过程减少；第二,蒙古地区高空出现降温,一方面造成对流层中上层位势高度降低,导致高空急流位置南移,引起东亚夏季风减弱,使得水汽很难越过长江到达华北；另一方面降温还造成对流层底层气压升高,使得地面低压天气过程减少。这几个方面共同影响,结果造成华北夏季降水出现减少趋势。
3)华北降水季节演变存在两个主要模态,第一模态主要受ENSO和IOD演变过程控制,具体是前期受ENSO、IOD共同影响,IOD的作用更大一些,而在当年,ENSO的影响更加明显；第二模态主要受IOD演变过程控制。近50年,第一模态逐渐减弱,而第二模态逐渐增强,两者的共同作用使得近50年华北夏季降水出现减少趋势。
4)近50年印度洋海温升高、正IOD指数加强,通过改变东亚冬季、春季降水分布,影响夏季海陆热力对比,造成夏季西太平洋副热带高压加强、位置偏西偏北,华北被副高控制,同时,孟加拉湾西南风水汽输送减弱,华北水汽来源不足,结果造成近50年华北夏季降水出现减少趋势。
5)随着近50年印度洋、太平洋海温升高和正IOD指数增强,东亚季风环流发生明显改变,夏季西南风显著减小,蒙古气旋环流转为反气旋环流,河套由辐合转为辐散环流,500hPa高度场上华北夏季“东高西低”的环流形势转为“西高东低”形势。因此,水汽来源不足和缺乏有利的动力条件,使得华北夏季降水出现减少趋势。
This paper was based on 752 stations daily and monthly precipitation datasets supplied by National Meteorological Information Center, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and NOAA_ERSST_V3 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov). The aim was to present the spatial-temporal variation of the precipitation in North China and indicate the relationships between variation of key influencing factors, dominating modes of seasonal evolution in North China precipitation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the East Asian monsoon and the precipitation reduction in North China by using statistical methods, synthesis analysis and other mathematic methods. The main conclusions are as follow:
1) The precipitation trend in North China is different significantly. In order to analysis the overall trend of North China, it is more reasonable to select Shanxi, Hebei (including Beijing and Tianjin) as representative region. The reduction of annual precipitation in recent 50 years is due to the decrease of summer rainfall which is manifesting that the reduction of rainy days, especially the reduction of rainstorm days. Both the peak value of summer precipitation decrease and the rainy season becoming longer are the internal characteristics of summer precipitation reduction in North China.
2) The summer precipitation in North China had an abrupt change in 1965, followed by a significant reduction. This change is in accordance with the variation of mid-high latitude circulation in Asia. First of all, at 500 hPa height field, the circulation converting into zonal circulation from the previous meridional circulation and Lake Baikal upper trough reducing activities, which leaded to decreasing the upward movement over North China. Secondly, at 500 hPa layer, the temperature in Mongolia obviously dropped. For one thing, the lower temperature would lower potential height at upper troposphere, and lead to the high-altitude jet stream turning toward south, which caused the East Asian summer monsoon to weaken. So water vapor will not reach in North China crossing Yangtze River. For another, the lower temperature caused air pressure of the lower troposphere in this region to increase and the low pressure weather process activities to reduce at the ground.
3) There are two dominating modes of seasonal evolution in North China precipitation. The first mode mainly is controlled by both ENSO and IOD evolution, the second mode is mainly affected by IOD evolution. In the past 50 years, the first mode gradually weakened, while the second mode gradually increased, the combined effect of both makes summer precipitation in North China to decrease.
4) During the recent 50 years, increased Indian Ocean SST and enhanced IOD index affected summer sea-land thermodynamic contrast by changing the East Asian winter and spring precipitation, resulting in strengthening the West Pacific subtropical high in summer, and its location moving towards north and west. So North China was controlled by the subtropical high. Meanwhile, water vapor carried by southwest monsoon from Bay of Bengal was less. Thus, lack of moisture sources in North China results in summer precipitation in North China appearing a decreased trend.
5) With the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean SST increasing and the IOD index enhancing in the past 50 years, significant changes occurred in East Asian monsoon. Southwesterly winds in summer decreased significantly, Mongolia cyclone circulation converted into anticyclone circulation, the circulation convergence converted into divergence near Yellow River Loop, the circulation from "east high pressure with west low pressure" to "east low pressure with west high pressure" at high field over North China. Insufficient moisture sources and lack of favorable dynamic conditions result in a decreasing trend in North China summer rainfall.
1)华北各区域降水变化不一样,如果研究华北降水整体变化趋势,可能选择山西、河北(含京津)作为代表区更为合理。华北近50年降水减少主要是由于夏季雨量减少造成的,其中夏季雨日减少,尤其暴雨雨日减少造成的影响最为重要；华北近50年雨季峰值雨量显著减小和雨季变长是华北夏季降水量减少的又一个内在特征。
2)华北夏季降水在1965年发生了气候突变,之后降水显著减少,这是由于在1965年之后亚洲中高纬夏季环流发生明显改变造成的。第一,500 hPa高度场环流由突变前的经向环流突出转变为纬向环流突出,贝加尔湖高空槽活动减少,使得华北上升运动过程减少；第二,蒙古地区高空出现降温,一方面造成对流层中上层位势高度降低,导致高空急流位置南移,引起东亚夏季风减弱,使得水汽很难越过长江到达华北；另一方面降温还造成对流层底层气压升高,使得地面低压天气过程减少。这几个方面共同影响,结果造成华北夏季降水出现减少趋势。
3)华北降水季节演变存在两个主要模态,第一模态主要受ENSO和IOD演变过程控制,具体是前期受ENSO、IOD共同影响,IOD的作用更大一些,而在当年,ENSO的影响更加明显；第二模态主要受IOD演变过程控制。近50年,第一模态逐渐减弱,而第二模态逐渐增强,两者的共同作用使得近50年华北夏季降水出现减少趋势。
4)近50年印度洋海温升高、正IOD指数加强,通过改变东亚冬季、春季降水分布,影响夏季海陆热力对比,造成夏季西太平洋副热带高压加强、位置偏西偏北,华北被副高控制,同时,孟加拉湾西南风水汽输送减弱,华北水汽来源不足,结果造成近50年华北夏季降水出现减少趋势。
5)随着近50年印度洋、太平洋海温升高和正IOD指数增强,东亚季风环流发生明显改变,夏季西南风显著减小,蒙古气旋环流转为反气旋环流,河套由辐合转为辐散环流,500hPa高度场上华北夏季“东高西低”的环流形势转为“西高东低”形势。因此,水汽来源不足和缺乏有利的动力条件,使得华北夏季降水出现减少趋势。
This paper was based on 752 stations daily and monthly precipitation datasets supplied by National Meteorological Information Center, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and NOAA_ERSST_V3 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov). The aim was to present the spatial-temporal variation of the precipitation in North China and indicate the relationships between variation of key influencing factors, dominating modes of seasonal evolution in North China precipitation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the East Asian monsoon and the precipitation reduction in North China by using statistical methods, synthesis analysis and other mathematic methods. The main conclusions are as follow:
1) The precipitation trend in North China is different significantly. In order to analysis the overall trend of North China, it is more reasonable to select Shanxi, Hebei (including Beijing and Tianjin) as representative region. The reduction of annual precipitation in recent 50 years is due to the decrease of summer rainfall which is manifesting that the reduction of rainy days, especially the reduction of rainstorm days. Both the peak value of summer precipitation decrease and the rainy season becoming longer are the internal characteristics of summer precipitation reduction in North China.
2) The summer precipitation in North China had an abrupt change in 1965, followed by a significant reduction. This change is in accordance with the variation of mid-high latitude circulation in Asia. First of all, at 500 hPa height field, the circulation converting into zonal circulation from the previous meridional circulation and Lake Baikal upper trough reducing activities, which leaded to decreasing the upward movement over North China. Secondly, at 500 hPa layer, the temperature in Mongolia obviously dropped. For one thing, the lower temperature would lower potential height at upper troposphere, and lead to the high-altitude jet stream turning toward south, which caused the East Asian summer monsoon to weaken. So water vapor will not reach in North China crossing Yangtze River. For another, the lower temperature caused air pressure of the lower troposphere in this region to increase and the low pressure weather process activities to reduce at the ground.
3) There are two dominating modes of seasonal evolution in North China precipitation. The first mode mainly is controlled by both ENSO and IOD evolution, the second mode is mainly affected by IOD evolution. In the past 50 years, the first mode gradually weakened, while the second mode gradually increased, the combined effect of both makes summer precipitation in North China to decrease.
4) During the recent 50 years, increased Indian Ocean SST and enhanced IOD index affected summer sea-land thermodynamic contrast by changing the East Asian winter and spring precipitation, resulting in strengthening the West Pacific subtropical high in summer, and its location moving towards north and west. So North China was controlled by the subtropical high. Meanwhile, water vapor carried by southwest monsoon from Bay of Bengal was less. Thus, lack of moisture sources in North China results in summer precipitation in North China appearing a decreased trend.
5) With the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean SST increasing and the IOD index enhancing in the past 50 years, significant changes occurred in East Asian monsoon. Southwesterly winds in summer decreased significantly, Mongolia cyclone circulation converted into anticyclone circulation, the circulation convergence converted into divergence near Yellow River Loop, the circulation from "east high pressure with west low pressure" to "east low pressure with west high pressure" at high field over North China. Insufficient moisture sources and lack of favorable dynamic conditions result in a decreasing trend in North China summer rainfall.
引文
1. Chen Hua,Ding Yihui,He Jinhai.Reappraisal of Asian summer monsoon indices and the long-term variation of monsoon[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,21(2):168-178.
2. Dai Xingang,Wang Ping,Chou Jifan.Multiscale characteristics of the rainy season rainfall and interdecadal decaying of summer monsoon in North China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(12):2730-2734.
3. Ding Yihui.Summer monsoon rainfall in China[J] Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1992,70(1):373-396.
4. Ding Yihui, Johnny C. L. Chan.The East Asian summer monsoon:an overview[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,89(1):117-142.
5. Ding Yihui, Wang Zunya,Sun Ying.Interdecadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part I:Observed evidences[J]Jnternational Journal of Climatology.2007,28(9):1139-1161.
6. Gao Xuejie,Zhao Zongci,Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui,Filippo Giorgi.Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(6):1224-1230.
7. Gao Xuejie,Zhao Zongci,Filippo Giorgi.Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia [J]Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(5):927-942.
8. Gong D Y,Ho C H.Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2002,29(10):1436,doi:10.1029/2001GL014523.
9. Guan Zhaoyong,Yamagata T.The unusual summer of 1994 in East Asia:IOD teleconnections[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2003a,30(10):1541-1544.
10. Guan Zhaoyong,Ashok K,Yamagata T.Summertime response of the tropical atmosphere to the Indian ocean dipole sea surface temperature anomalies[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,2003b,81(3):533-561.
11. He Haiyan,McGinnis J W,Song Zhengshan.et al.Onset of the Asian summer monsoon in 1979 and the effect of the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1987,115(9):1966-1995.
12. Hu Z Z,Yang S,Wu R.Long-term climate variations in China and global waring signals[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(D19):4614,doi:10.1029/2003JD003651.
13. IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The physical science basis.Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York.NY,USA,2007.996.
14. Krishnamurti T N,Ramanathan Y. Sensitivity of monsoon onset of differential heating[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1982,39(6):1290-1306.
15. Li Feng,He Jinhai.Interdecadal variations of interaction between north Pacific SSTA and east Asian summer monsoon[J] Journal of Tropical Meteorology,,2001,7(1):41-52.
16. Li Hongmei,Dai Aiguo,Zhou Tianjun,Lu Jian.Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950-2000[J]. Climate Dynamics,2010,34(4):501-514.
17. Nitta T. Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the orthern hemisphere summer circulation[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1987,65(3):373-390.
18. Pathasarathy B,Munot A A,Kothwale D R.All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series:1871-1993 [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,1994,49(4):217-224.
19. Qian W,Lin X.Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,90(2):193-207.
20. Rasmusson E M,Michael H.EI Nino and variations in climate[J].American Scientist,1985,73(2):168-177.
21. Ropelewski C F,Halpert M S.Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1987,115(6):1606-1626.
22. Saji N H, Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N,et al.A dipolemode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J].Nature,1999, 401(6571):360-363.
23. Sun xiurong,Chen longxun,He Jinhai.Interannual variatiojn of index of East Asian land-sea thermal difference and its relatioj to monsoon circulation and rainfall over china[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2001,15(1):71-85.
24. Surabi Menon, James Hansen, Larissa Nazarenko, and Yunfeng Luo. Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India [J].Science,2002,297(5590):2250-2253.
25. Tao Shiyan,Chen Longxun.A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. In:Chang C P,Krishnamurti T N,Eds.Monsoon Meteorology.Oxford University press,1987.60-92.
26. Trenberth K E.The definition of El Nino[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1997,78(12):2771-2777.
27. Wang Bin,Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,Liu Jian,Chang Chih-Pei.Ding Yihui,Wu Guoxiong. How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(17):4449-4463.
28. Wang Huijun.The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970s[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(3):376-386.
29. Wang Huijun,Fan Ke.Central-North China precipitation as reconstructed from the Qing Dynasty:Signal of the Antarctic atmospheric oscillation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32,L24705,doi:10.1029/2005GL024562.
30. Wang Y Q,Zhou L.Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation[J].Geophysical Research Letter,2005,32,L09707,doi:10.1029/2005GL022574.
31. Webster P J,Yang S.Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1992,118(507):877-926.
32. Wu Renguang,Wang Bin.A contrast of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship between 1962-77 and 1978-93[J]. Journal ofClimate,2002,15(22):3266-3279.
33. Xu Qun.Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution[J].Atmospheric Environment,2001,35(30):5029-5040.
34. Xue F,Wang H J,He J H.Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influence on East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2004,82(4):1173-1186.
35. Yanai Michio, Li Chengfeng,Song Zhengshan.Seasonal heating of the Tibetan Plateau and its effects on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1992,70(1B):319-351.
36. Yu Rucong,Wang Bin,Zhou Tianjun.Tropospheric cooling and summer monsoon weakening trend over East Asia[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31,L22212,doi:10.1029/2004GL021270.
37. Zhai Panmao,Zhang Xuebin,Wan Hui, Pan Xiaohua. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J]. Journal of Climate,2005,18(7):1096-1108.
38. Zhang Yongsheng,Li Tim, Wang Bin. Decadal change of the spring snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau:The associated circulation and influence on the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal ofClimate,2004,17(14):2780-2793.
39. Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong.Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models[J]. Journal of Climate,2006,19(22):5843-5858.
40. Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong,Li Hongmei,Wang Bin. Ocean forcing to changes in global monsoon precipitation over the recent half century [J]Journal of Climate,2008,21(15):3833-3852.
41. Zhou Tianjun,Zhang Jie.Harmonious inter-decadal changes of July-August upper tropospheric temperature across the North Atlantic, Eurasian continent and North Pacific[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2009,26(4):656-665.
42. Zhu Jinhong,Wang Shaowu.80a-oscillation of summer rainfall over east of China and east Asian summer monsoon[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(5):1043-1051.
43. Zhu Qiangen, He Jinhai,Wang Panxin. A study of circulation differences between East-Asian and Indian Summer Monsoon with their interaction [J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1986,3(4):466-477.
44. 卞林根,林学春.南极海冰涛动及其对东亚季风和我国夏季降水的可能影响[J].冰川动土,2008,30(2)：196-203.
45. 蔡怡,李海,张人禾.热带印度洋海温异常与ENSO关系的进一步研究[J].气象学报,2008,66(1)：120-124.
46. 陈桂英,廖荃荪.100 hPa南亚高压位置特征与我国盛夏降水[J].高原气象,1990,9(4)：432-438.
47. 陈烈庭.青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO在1998年长江流域洪涝中的作用[J].大气科学,2001,25(2)：184-192.
48. 陈烈庭,吴仁广.太平洋各区海温异常对中国东部夏季雨带类型的共同影响[J].大气科学,1998,22(5)：718-726.
49. 陈隆勋.东亚季风系统的结构及其中期变动[J].海洋学报,1984,3(6)：744-785.
50. 陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮,等.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报,2004,62(5)：634-646.
51. 陈文,康丽华,王玎.我国夏季降水与全球海温的耦合关系分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3)：259-269.
52. 陈晓光,朱乾根,徐祥德.河套华北地区早涝前期的环流异常和遥相关机制[J].南京气象学院学报,1993,16(4)：392-398.
53. 陈兴芳.1994年西太平洋副高异常变化及其成因分析[J].气象,1995,21(12)：3-7.
54. 陈兴芳,赵振国.中国汛期降水预测研究及应用[M].北京：气象出版社,2000.1-20.
55. 邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,2009,33(4)：835-846.
56. 丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4)：794-805.
57. 段丽瑶,荣艳淑,梁平德.西太平洋副热带高压位置对华北盛夏降水的影响[J].气象科技,2008,36(3)：273-276.
58. 高辉,张芳华.关于东亚夏季风指数的比较[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(1)：79-86.
59. 高由禧,徐淑英.东亚季风的若干问题[M].北京：科学出版社,1962.106pp.
60. 龚道溢,王绍武.北大西洋涛动指数的比较及其年代际变率[J].大气科学,2000,24(2)：187-192.
61. 顾薇,李崇银,潘静.太平洋—印度洋海温与我国东部早涝型年代际变化的关系[J].气候与环境研究2007,12(2)：113-123.
62. 顾伟宗,陈海山,孙照渤.华北春季降水及其与前期印度洋海温的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2006,29(4)：484-490.
63. 郭其蕴.东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].地理学报,1983,38(3)：207-217.
64. 郭其蕴.中国季风降水与赤道东太平洋海温的关系[J].地理研究,1990,9(4)：49-60.
65. 郭其蕴,王继琴.中国与印度夏季风降水的比较研究[J].热带气象学报,1988,4(1)：53-60.
66. 郭其蕴,蔡静宁,邵雪梅,等.东亚夏季风的年代际变率对中国气候的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4)：569-576.
67. 郝立生,乔林,何立富,等.燕山南麓夏季降水对东亚季风变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2007a,28(2)：128-131.
68. 郝立生,闵锦忠,姚学祥.华北夏季降水减少原因分析[J].干旱区研究,2007b,24(4)：522-527.
69. 郝立生,姚学祥,只德国.气候变化与海河流域地表水资源量的关系[J].海河水利,2009,28(5)：1-4.
70. 何金海,赵平,祝从文,等.关于东亚副热带季风若干问题的讨论[J].气象学报,2008,66(5)：683-696.
71. 何敏,宋文玲,许力.南海季风指数的定义及预报[A].见：何金海.南海夏季风建立日期的确定与季风指数[C].北京：气象出版社,2001.109-110.
72. 何有海,程志强,关翠华.华北地区夏季降水量与南海海温长期变化的关系[J].热带海洋学报,2003,22(1)：1-8.
73. 黄刚,严中伟.东亚夏季风环流异常指数及其年际变化[J].科学通报,1999,44(2)：421-424.
74. 黄荣辉,李维京.夏季热带西太平洋上空的热源异常对东亚上空副热带高压的影响及其物理机制[J].大气科学,1988,12(增刊)：107-117.
75. 黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池上空对流活动对东亚夏季风季节内变化的影响[J].大气科学,1994,18(4)：456-465.
76. 黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童,等.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象,1999,18(4)：465-476.
77. 黄荣辉,周连童.我国重大气候灾害特征形成机理和预测研究[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(1)：1-9.
78.黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5)：730-743.
79. 黄燕燕,钱永甫.长江流域、华北降水特征与南亚高压的关系分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(1)：68-74.
80. 黄樱,钱永甫.南亚高压与华北夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2003,22(6)：602-607.
81. 贾小龙,李崇银.南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(6)：1238-1249.
82. 建军,余锦华.登陆我国台风与华北夏季降水的相关[J].南京气象学院学报,2006,29(6)：819-826.
83. 江滢,翟盘茂.几种亚洲季风指数与中国夏季主要雨型的关联[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(z1)：70-76.
84. 琚建华,陈琳玲,李崇银.太平洋印度洋海温异常模态及其指数定义的初步研究[J].热带气象学报2004,20(6)：617-624.
85. 琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(1)：74-81.
86. 李超.厄尔尼诺对我国汛期降水的影响[J].海洋学报,1992,14(5)：45-51.
87. 李崇银,穆明权.赤道印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].大气科学,2001,25(4)：433-443.
88. 李崇银,王作台,林士哲,等.东亚夏季风活动与东亚高空西风急流位置北跳关系的研究[J].大气科学,2004,28(5)：641-658.
89. 李春,孙照渤,陈海山.华北夏季降水的年代际变化及其与东亚地区大气环流的联系明.南京气象学院学报,2002,25(4)：455-462.
90. 李春,孙照渤.中纬度阻塞高压指数与华北夏季降水的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(4)：458-464.
91. 李东辉,谭言科,张瑰,等.东亚冬夏季风对热带印度洋秋季海温异常的响应[J].热带海洋学报,2006,25(4)：6-13.
92.李峰,何金海.东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA关系的年代际变化特征及其机制研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2001,24(2)：199-206.
93. 李麦村,吴仪芳,黄嘉佑.中国东部季风降水与赤道东太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,1987,11(4)：365-372.
94. 李琰,王亚非,魏东.前期热带太平洋、印度洋海温异常对长江流域及以南地区6月降水的影响[J].气象学报,2007,65(3)：393-405.
95. 梁平德,段丽瑶,周鸣盛,等.华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆[J].气象学报,2006,64(3)：385-391.
96. 廖清海,高守亭,王会军,等.北半球夏季副热带西风急流变异及其对东亚夏季风气候异常的影响[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(1)：10-18.
97. 刘海文,丁一汇.华北汛期的起讫及其气候学分析[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6)：688-696.
98. 刘海文，郭品文，张娇.戴维斯海峡海冰与华北降水的年际关系及其年代际变化[J].南京气象学院学报，2004,27(2)：253-257.
99. 刘娜,周秋林,管兆勇,等.北半球对流层气候异常对热带印度洋海温偶极子型振荡的响应及动力机制解释[J].自然科学进展,2008,18(6)：668-673.
100.刘颖,倪允琪ENSO对亚洲夏季风环流和中国夏季降水影响的诊断研究[J].气象学报,1998,56(6)：618-691.
101.刘毓赞,赵荻,曹杰.热带太平洋和印度洋海温异常对东亚冬季风影响的一个物理机制[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(1)：24-29.
102.陆端军,张先恭.中国降水和温度对ENSO响应的特征[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(1)：118-123.
103.陆日宇,黄荣辉.东亚—太平洋遥相关型波列对夏季东北阻塞高压年际变化的影响[J].大气科学,1998,22(5)：727-734.
104.陆日宇.华北汛期降水量年际变化与赤道东太平洋海温.科学通报,2005,50(11)：1131-1135.
105.马京津，高晓清,曲迎乐.华北地区春季和夏季降水特征及与气候相关的分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3)：321-329.
106.马京津,于波,高晓清,等.大尺度环流变化对华北地区夏季水汽输送的影响[J].高原气象,2008,27(3)：517-523.
107.缪锦海,Lau K M东亚季风降水的年际变化[J].应用气象学报,1990,1(4)：377-382.
108.彭加毅,孙照渤.70年代末大气环流及中国旱涝分布的突变[J].南京气象学院学报,1999,22(3)：300-304.
109.彭京备,陈烈庭,张庆云.青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO的多尺度变化及其与中国夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2005,24(3)：366-377.
110.钱永甫,张琼,张学洪.南亚高压与我国盛夏气候异常[J].南京大学学报,2002,38(3)：295-307.
111.钱维宏.全球气候系统[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2009.260-261.
112.乔云亭,陈烈庭,张庆云.东亚季风指数的定义及其与中国气候的关系[J],大气科学,2002,26(1)：69-82.
113.荣艳淑,罗健.华北地区1901—2002年气候变化强度的演变[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3)：276-280.
114.施能,朱乾根,吴彬贵.近40年东亚夏季风及我国夏季大尺度天气气候异常[J].大气科学,1996,20(5)：575-583.
115.施晓晖.华北夏季降水的年代际趋势突变及其可能成因[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(2)：22-28.
116.史印山,姚学祥,杨晓亮,李宗涛.华北夏季早涝的特征分析[J]气象科学,2008,28(4)：377-383.
117.宋华，孙照渤.华北地区夏季旱涝的时空分布特征及其与北极海冰的关系[J].南京气象学院学报2003,26(3)：289-295.
118.孙安健,高波.华北平原地区夏季严重旱涝特征诊断分析[J].大气科学,2000,24(3)：393-402.
119.孙卫国,程炳岩,郭渠.东亚季风环流对华北地区降水蒸发差的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3)：327-334.
120.孙燕,王谦谦,钱永甫,等.华北地区夏季降水与全球海温异常的关系[J].高原气象,2006,25(6)：1127-1138.
121.谭桂容,孙照渤.西太平洋副高与华北旱涝的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2)：206-211.
122.谭言科,刘会荣,李崇银,等.热带印度洋偶极子的季节性位相锁定可能原因[J].大气科学,2008,32(2)：197-205.
123.汤绪,陈葆德,梁萍,等.有关东亚夏季风北边缘的定义及其特征[J].气象学报,2009,67(1)：83-89.
124.唐卫亚,孙照渤.印度洋海温异常与中国气温异常的可能联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(5)：667-673.
125.陶诗言,赵煜佳,陈晓敏,等.东亚的梅雨期与亚洲上空大气环流季节变化的关系[J].气象学报,1958,29(2)：119-134.
126.陶诗言,何诗秀,杨显芳.1979年季风实验期间东亚地区夏季风爆发时期的观测研究[J].大气科学,1983,7(4)：347-355.
127.涂长望,黄士松.中国夏季风之进退[J].气象学报,1944,18(1)：82-92.
128.王会军,范可.南半球对流层上层纬向风与东亚夏季风环流[J].科学通报,2006,51(13)：1595-1600.
129.王绍武,朱锦红.国外关于年代际气候变率的研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(3)：376-383.
130.王绍武.现代气候学研究进展[M].北京：气象出版社,2001.458pp.
131.王永波,施能.夏季北大西洋涛动与我国天气气候的关系[J].气象科学.2001,21(3)：271-278.
132.韦志刚，罗四维，董文杰,等.青藏高原积雪资料分析及其与我国夏季降水的影响[J].应用气象学报1998,9(增刊)：39-46.
133.魏凤英,张先恭,李晓东.用CEOF分析近百年中国东部早涝的分布及其年际变化特征[J].应用气象学报, 1995,6(4)：454-460.
134.吴尚森,梁建茵.南海夏季风强度指数及其变化特征[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4)：337-344.
135.吴统文,钱正安.青藏高原冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水关系的进一步分析[J].气象学报,2000,58(5)：570-581.
136.武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6)：641-651.
137.武炳义,高登义,黄荣辉.冬春季节北极海冰的年际和年代际变化[J].气候与环境研究,2000,5(3)：249-258.
138.武炳义,黄荣辉,高登义.北极海冰的厚度和面积变化对大气环流影响的数值模拟[J].气象学报,2001,59(4)：414-428.
139.谢付莹,何金海.华北夏季降水与哈得孙湾海冰的相关分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(3)：308-316.
140.谢坤,任雪娟.华北夏季大气水汽输送特征及其与夏季旱涝的关系[J].气象科学,2008,28(5)：508-514.
141.徐桂玉,杨修群,孙旭光.华北降水年代际、年际变化特征与北半球大气环流的联系[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3)：511-518.
142.徐国昌,李珊,洪波.青藏高原雪盖异常对我国环流和降水的影响[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(1)：62-67.
143.严华生,严小冬.前期高度场和海温场变化对我国汛期降水的影响[J].大气科学,2004,28(3)：405-414.
144.晏红明,肖子牛.印度洋海温异常对亚洲季风区天气气候影响的数值模拟研究[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(1)：18-27.
145.杨霞,管兆勇,朱保林.IOD对ENSO影响中国夏季降水和气温的干扰作用[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(2)：170-177.
146.杨修群,谢倩,黄士松.北极冰异常对亚洲夏季风影响的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,1994,16(5)：35-40.
147.杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4)：789-797.
148.叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1996.387pp.
149.于润玲,孙照渤,陈海山.华北夏季降水与北半球环流及北太平洋海温关系的初步分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2002,25(5)：577-586.
150.袁潮霞,钱永甫.南半球高纬地区前期环流异常和我国华北地区夏季降水的联系[J].热带气象学报2005,21(6)：570-578.
151.翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊)：1-10.
152.张恒德,金荣花,张友姝.夏季北极涡与副热带高压的联系及对华北降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4)：417-422.
153.张礼平,丁一汇,陈正洪,等.OLR与长江中游夏季降水的关联[J].气象学报,2007,65(1)：75-83.
154.张利平,夏军,胡志芳.华北地区降水多时间尺度演变特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(3)：140-144.
155.张庆云.1880年以来华北降水及水资源的变化[J].高原气象,1999,18(4)：486-495.
156.张庆云,陶诗言.夏季东亚热带和副热带季风与中国东部汛期降水[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(增刊)：16-23.
157.张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J].气象学报,2003a,61(4)：559-568.
158.张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003b,8(3)：307-318.
159.张人禾El Nino盛期印度夏季风水汽输送在我国华北地区夏季降水异常中的作用[J].高原气象1999,18(4)：567-574.
160.张先恭,张家诚.近五百年来我国气候的几种振动及其相互关系[J].气象学报,1969,37(2)：50-57.
161.张秀芝,李江龙,阎俊岳,等.南海夏季风爆发的环流特征及指标的研究[A].见：何金海等.南海夏季风建立日期的确定与季风指数[C].北京：气象出版社,2001.83-95.
162.赵平,周自江.东亚副热带夏季风指数及其与降水的关系[J].气象学报,2005,63(6)：933-941.
163.赵平,周秀骥,陈隆勋,等.中国东部—西太平洋副热带季风和降水的气候特征及成因分析[J].气象学报,2008,66(6)：940-954.
164.赵声蓉,宋正山,纪立人.华北汛期降水与亚洲季风异常关系的研究[J].气象学报,2002,60(1)：68-75.
165.赵声蓉,宋正山,纪立人.青藏高原热力异常与华北汛期降水关系的研究[J].大气科学,2003,27(5)：881-893.
166.赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场[M].北京：气象出版社,1999.1-9.
167.周连童,黄荣辉.关于我国夏季气候年代际变化特征及其可能成因的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3)：274-290.
168.周连童.引起华北地区夏季出现持续干旱的环流异常型[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(2)：120-130.
169.朱锦红,王绍武,慕巧珍.华北夏季降水80年振荡及其与东亚夏季风的关系[J].自然科学进展2003,13(11)：1205-1209.
170.朱玉祥,丁一汇,刘海文.青藏高原冬季积雪影响我国夏季降水的模拟研究[J].大气科学,2009,33(5)：903-915.
171.竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1)：1-27.
172.祝从文,何金海,吴国雄.东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系[J].气象学报,2000,58(4)：391-402.
173.庄世宇,纪立人.夏季副热带西太平洋大气环流持续异常[J].科学通报,1997,42(20)：2196-2199.
1. Bretherton C S,Smith C,Wallace J M.An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data[J]. Journal of Climate,1992,5(6):541-560.
2. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bill Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3): 437-472.
3. Liebmann B,Smith C A. Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(6):1275-1277.
4. Prohaska J. A technique for analysis the linear relationship between two meteorological fields[J]. Mon Wea Rew,1976, 104(11):1345-1353.
5. Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
6. Torrence C,Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.1998,79(1):61-78.
7. Wallace J M, Smith C, Bretherton C S.Singular value decomposition of wintertime sea surface temperature and 500-mb height anomalies[J]. Journal of Climate,1992,5(6): 561-576.
8. Wang Bin,An Soon-Ⅱ.A method fordetecting season-depenent modes of climat variability: S-EOF analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32,L5710,doi:10.1029/2005GL022709.
9. 丁裕国,江志红.SVD方法在气象场诊断分析中的普适性[J].气象学报,1996,54(3)：365-372.
10. 黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法(第三版)[M].北京：气象出版社,2004.130-131.
11.江志红,丁裕国.我国夏半年降水距平与北太平洋海温异常的奇异值分解法分析[J].热带气象学报,1995,11(2)：133-141.
12. 马开玉,陈星,张耀存.气候诊断[M].北京：气象出版社,1996.122-123.
13. 吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京：气象出版社,2005.371pp.
14. 《数学手册》编写组.数学手册[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1979.836-852.
15. 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.18-66.
1. Ding Yihui. Summer monsoon rainfall in China[J]Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1992,70(1):373-396.
2. Torrence C,Compo GP. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of theAmerican Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78.
3. 陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文,等.中国近45年来气候变化的研究[J].气象学报,1998,56(3)：257-271.
4. 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4)：482-493.
5. 吕俊梅,任菊章,琚建华.东亚夏季风的年代际变化对中国降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(1)：73-82.
6. 马开玉,陈星,张耀存.气候诊断[M].北京：气象出版社,1996.260pp.
7. 缪锦海,Lau K M.东亚季风降水的年际变化[J].应用气象学报,1990,1(4)：377-382.
8. 陶诗言,何诗秀，杨显芳.1979年季风实验期间东亚地区夏季风爆发时期的观测研究[J].大气科学,1983,7(4)：347-355.
9. 王遵娅,丁一汇.中国雨季的气候学特征[J].大气科学,2008,32(1)：1-13.
10.魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.296pp.
11.叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域早涝规律和成因研究[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1996.387pp.
12.周连童,黄荣辉.关于我国夏季气候年代际变化特征及其可能成因的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3)：274-290.
13.竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1)：1-27.
1. Busuioc A,Chen D. Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates:Application for Swedish precipitation[J].International Journal of Climatology,2001,21(5):557-578.
2. Chen D. A monthly circulation climatology for Sweden and its application to a winter temperature case study[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2000,20(10):1067-1076.
3. Chen Hua,Ding Yihui,He Jinhai.Reappraisal of Asian summer monsoon indices and the long-term variation of monsoon[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,21(2):168-178.
4. Ding Yihui, Johnny C. L. Chan.The East Asian summer monsoon:an overview[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,89(1):117-142.
5. Jenkinson A F,Collison F P. An initial climatology of gales over the North Sea. Synoptic Climatology Branch Memorandum,1977,No.62, Meteorological Office,Bracknell,18.
6. Jia Liwei.Li Weijing,Chen Deliang. A monthly atmospheric circulation classification and its relationship with climate in Harbin[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2006,20(4):403-412.
7. Jones P D,Kelly P M. Principal component analysis of the Lamb catalogue of daily weather types:Part 1,Annual frequencies[J]. International Journal of Climatology,1982.2(2):147-157.
8. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(3):437-471.
9. Lamb H H. Types and spells of weather around the year in the British Isles:Annual trends, seasonal structure of the year, singularities [J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1950,76(330):393-438.
10. Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
11. Wang Bin,Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,Liu Jian,Chang Chih-Pei,Ding Yihui,Wu Guoxiong. How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(17):4449-4463.
12. Wang Hui-Jun.Instability of the East Asina summer monsoon-ENSO relations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(1):1-11.
13. Yang Song,Lau K M,Kim K M.Variations of the east Asian jet stream and Asian-pacific-American winter climate anomalies[J]. Journal of Climate,2002,15(3):306-325.
14. Zhang X,Wang X L,Corte-Real J. On the relationships between daily circulation patterns and precipitation in Portugal. Journal of Geophysical Research,1997,102(D12):13495-13507,doi:10.1029/97JD01012.
15. Zhao Ping,Zhou Zijiang. An East Asian subtropical summer monsoon index and its relationship to summer rainfall in Chin[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2009,23(1):18-28.
16. Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong.Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China[3].Journal of Geophysical Research,2005,110, D08104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005413.
17. 陈隆勋,朱乾根,罗会邦,等.东亚季风[M].北京：气象出版社,1991.362pp.
18. 陈兴芳.1994年西太平洋副高异常变化及其成因分析[J].气象,1995,21(12)：3-7.
19. 丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4)：794-805.
20. 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4)：482-493.
21. 郭其蕴.东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].地理学报,1983,38(3)：207-217.
22. 郝立生,闵锦忠,姚学祥.华北和印度夏季风降水变化的对比分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(5)：271-275.
23. 黄刚.与华北干旱相关联的全球尺度气候变化现象[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3)：270-279.
24. 黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童,等.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象,1999,18(4)：465-476.
25. 黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5)：730-743.
26. 黄荣辉,顾雷,陈际龙,等.东亚季风系统的时空变化及其对我国气候异常影响的最近研究进展[J].大气科学,2008,32(4)：691-719.
27. 黄樱,钱永甫.南亚高压与华北夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2003,22(6)：602-607.
28. 贾丽伟,李维京,陈德亮.东北地区降水与大气环流关系[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(5)：557-566.
29. 琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(1)：74-81.
30. 李春，孙照渤.中纬度阻塞高压指数与华北夏季降水的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(4)：458-464.
31. 李峰,何金海.东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA关系的年代际变化特征及其机制研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2001,24(2)：199-206.
32. 陆日宇.与华北地区春季降水量异常关联的大气环流异常[J].气候与环境研究,2001,6(4)：400-408.
33. 罗四维,钱正安,王谦谦.夏季100毫巴青藏高压与我国旱涝关系的天气气候研究[J].高原气象,1982,1(2)：1-10.
34. 宋华，孙照渤.华北地区夏季早涝的时空分布特征及其与北极海冰的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(3)：289-295.
35. 孙安健,高波.华北平原地区夏季严重旱涝特征诊断分析[J].大气科学,2000,24(3)：393-402.
36. 谭桂容，孙照渤.西太平洋副高与华北旱涝的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2)：206-211.
37.陶诗言,朱福康.夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J].气象学报,1964,34(4)：385-395.
38.涂长望,黄士松.中国夏季风之进退[J].气象学报,1944,18(1)：82-92.
39.卫捷,张庆云,陶诗言.1999年及2000年夏季华北严重干旱的物理成因分析[J].大气科学,2004,28(1)：125-137.
40.吴国雄,丑纪范,刘屹岷,等.副热带高压研究进展及展望[A].见：吴国雄,张琼主编.夏季副热带高压变化研究的新进展[C].北京：气象出版社,2006.1-15.
41.杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4)：789-797.
42.叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域早涝规律和成因研究[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1996.387pp.
43.张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干早的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3)：307-318.
44.张人禾El Nino盛期印度夏季风水汽输送在我国华北地区夏季降水异常中的作用[J].高原气象1999,18(4)：567-574.
45.朱锦红王绍武慕巧珍.华北夏季降水80年振荡及其与东亚夏季风的关系[J].自然科学进展，2003,13(11)：1205-1209.
46.竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1)：1-27.
1. Cheng H Q, Wu T W, Dong W J. Thermal contrast between the middle-latitude Asian continent and adjacent ocean and its connection to the East Asian summer precipitation[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(19):4992-5007.
2. Ding Yihui, Johnny C. L. Chan.The East Asian summer monsoon:an overview[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,89(1):117-142.
3. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(3):437-471.
4. Kripalani R H,Oh J H,Chaudhari H S. Delayed influence of the Indian ocean dipole mode on the East Asia-west pacific monsoon:possible mechanism[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2010,30(2):197-209.
5. Saji N H, Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N,et al.A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J].Nature,1999, 401(6571):360-363.
6. Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
7. Wu Renguang, Kirtman B P. Observed relationship of spring and summer East Asian rainfall with winter and spring Eurasian snow[J]. Journal of Climate,2007,20(7):1285-1304.
8. Yuan Y, Yang H, Zhou W, Li C Y. Influences of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Asian summer monsoon in the following year[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2008,28(14):1849-1859.
9. 陈文,康丽华,王玎.我国夏季降水与全球海温的耦合关系分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3)：259-269.
10. 陈晓光,朱乾根,徐祥德.河套华北地区早涝前期的环流异常和遥相关机制[J].南京气象学院学报,1993,16(4)：392-398.
11. 戴新刚,汪萍,丑纪范.华北汛期降水多尺度特征与夏季风年代际衰变[J].科学通报,2003,48(23)：2483-2487.
12. 邓伟涛，孙照渤，曾刚，等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,2009,33(4)：835-846.
13.丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4)：794-805.
14. 顾薇，李崇银，潘静.太平洋—印度洋海温与我国东部旱涝型年代际变化的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2007,12(2)：113-123.
15. 黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童,等.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象,1999,18(4)：465-476.
16. 黄荣辉,陈际龙,周连童,等.关于中国重大气候灾害与东亚气候系统之间关系的研究[J].大气科学,2003,27(4)：770-787.
17. 黄樱,钱永甫.南亚高压与华北夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2003,22(6)：602-607.
18.琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(1)：74-81.
19. 李春,孙照渤.中纬度阻塞高压指数与华北夏季降水的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(4)：458-464.
20. 李峰,何金海.北太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风相互作用的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(3)：260-271.
21.李峰,何金海.东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA关系的年代际变化特征及其机制研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2001,24(2)：199-206.
22.刘海文,丁一汇.华北汛期的起讫及其气候学分析[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6)：688-696.
23.马京津,于波,高晓清,等.大尺度环流变化对华北地区夏季水汽输送的影响[J].高原气象,2008,27(3)：517-523.
24.彭京备,陈烈庭,张庆云.青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO的多尺度变化及其与中国夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2005,24(3)：366-377.
25. 施晓晖.华北夏季降水的年代际趋势突变及其可能成因[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(2)：22-28.
26.孙卫国,程炳岩,郭渠.东亚季风环流对华北地区降水蒸发差的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3)：327-334.
27. 谭桂容，孙照渤.西太平洋副高与华北旱涝的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2)：206-211.
28. 谭言科,刘会荣,李崇银,等.热带印度洋偶极子的季节性位相锁定可能原因[J].大气科学,2008,32(2)：197-205.
29. 谢坤,任雪娟.华北夏季大气水汽输送特征及其与夏季旱涝的关系[J].气象科学,2008,28(5)：508-514.
30. 杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4)：789-797.
31. 叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1996.387pp.
32. 张恒德,金荣花,张友姝.夏季北极涡与副热带高压的联系及对华北降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4)：417-422.
33. 张利平,夏军,胡志芳.华北地区降水多时间尺度演变特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(3)：140-144.
34.张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干早的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3)：307-318.
35. 张人禾.El Nino盛期印度夏季风水汽输送在我国华北地区夏季降水异常中的作用[J].高原气象1999,18(4)：567-574.
36. 周连童.引起华北地区夏季出现持续干旱的环流异常型[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(2)：120-130.
37. 朱玉祥,丁一汇,刘海文.青藏高原冬季积雪影响我国夏季降水的模拟研究[J].大气科学,2009,33(5)：903-915.
1. Ding Yihui.Monsoons Over China[M].Kluwer Academy Pblisher,1994.420pp.
2. Guan Zhaoyong,Ashok K,Yamagata T.Summertime response of the tropical atmosphere to the Indian ocean dipole sea surface temperature anomalies[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2003,81(3):533-561.
3. He Jinhai,Ju Jianhua,Wen Zhiping,et al.A review of recent advances in research on Asian monsoon in China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007a,24(6):972-992.
4. He Jinhai,Sun Chenghu,Liu Yunyun,et al.Seasonal transition features of large-scale moisture transport in the Asian-Australian monsoon region[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007b,24(1):1-14.
5. He Jinhai,Wen Min,Wang Lijuan,Xu Haiming. Characteristics of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon and the importance of Asian-Australian "Land Bridge"[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2006,23(6):951-963.
6. Huang Ronghui,Chen Jilong,Huang Gang.Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007,24(6):993-1023.
7. Huang Ronghui,Wu Yifang.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1989,6(1):21-32.
8. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-472.
9. Kripalani R H,Oh J H,Chaudhari H S. Delayed influence of the Indian ocean dipole mode on the East Asia-west pacific monsoon:possible mechanism[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2010,30(2):197-209.
10. Lau K M,Yang Song. Climatology and interannual variability of the southeast asian summer monsoon[J].Advances in A tmospheric Sciences,1997,14(2):141-162
11. Nitta T.Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1987,65(3):373-390.
12. Qian W,Kang H S,Lee D K.Distribution of seasonal rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2002,73(3-4):151-168.
13. Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
14. Tao Shiyan,Chen Longxun. A review of recent research on the East Asian Summer monsoon in China. In:Chang C P,Krishnamurti T N,Eds.Monsoon Meteorology.Oxford University press,1987.60-92.
15. Wang Bin,An Soon-II.A method fordetecting season-depenent modes of climat variability:S-EOF analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32,L 15710,doi:10.1029/2005GL022709.
16. Wang Bin,Yang Jing,Zhou Tianjun. Interdecadal changes in the major modes of Asian-Australian monsoon variability:strengthening relationship with ENSO since the Late 1970s[J]Journal of Climate,2008a,21(8):1771-1789.
17. Wang Bin,Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,Liu Jian,Chang Chih-Pei,Ding Yihui,Wu Guoxiong. How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate,2008b,21(17):4449-4463.
18. Wu Bo,Zhou Tianjun,Li Tim. Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate[J]. Journal of Climate,2009,22(11):2992-3005.
19. Wu Renguang,Wang Bin.Interannual variability of summer monsoon onset over the western North Pacific and the underlying processes. Journal of Climate,2000.13(14):2483-2501.
20. Zhao Ping,Zhange Renhe,Li Jiping,Zhou Xiuji,He Jinhai. Onset of southwesterly wind over eastern China and associated atmospheric circulation and rainfall[J]. Climate Dynamics,2007,28(7-8):797-811.
21. 陈隆勋,朱乾根,罗会邦,等.东亚季风[M].北京：气象出版社,1991.362pp.
22. 丁一汇,李崇银.何金海,等.南海季风试验与东亚夏季风[J].气象学报,2004,62(5)：561-586.
23. 何金海,温敏,丁一汇,等.亚澳“大陆桥”对流影响东亚夏季风建立的可能机制[J].中国科学D辑,2006,36(10)：959-967.
24. 何金海,宇婧婧,沈新勇,高辉.有关东亚季风的形成及其变率的研究[J].热带气象学报.2004,20(5)：449-456.
25. 黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5)：730-743.
26.廖清海，陶诗言.东亚地区夏季大气环流季节循环进程及其在区域持续性降水异常形成中的作用[J].大气科学,2004,28(6)：835-846.
27. 刘娜,周秋林,管兆勇,等.北半球对流层气候异常对热带印度洋海温偶极子型振荡的响应及动力机制解释[J].自然科学进展,2008,18(6)：668-673.
28. 闵锦忠，孙照渤,曾刚.南海和印度洋海温异常对东亚大气环流及降水的影响[J].南京气象学院学报2000,23(4)：542-548.
29. 陶诗言,赵煜佳,陈晓敏,等.东亚的梅雨期与亚洲上空大气环流季节变化的关系[J].气象学报,1958,29(2)：119-134.
30. 涂长望,黄仕松.中国夏季风之进退[J].气象学报,1944,18(1)：82-92.
31. 竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1)：1-27.
2. Dai Xingang,Wang Ping,Chou Jifan.Multiscale characteristics of the rainy season rainfall and interdecadal decaying of summer monsoon in North China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(12):2730-2734.
3. Ding Yihui.Summer monsoon rainfall in China[J] Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1992,70(1):373-396.
4. Ding Yihui, Johnny C. L. Chan.The East Asian summer monsoon:an overview[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,89(1):117-142.
5. Ding Yihui, Wang Zunya,Sun Ying.Interdecadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part I:Observed evidences[J]Jnternational Journal of Climatology.2007,28(9):1139-1161.
6. Gao Xuejie,Zhao Zongci,Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui,Filippo Giorgi.Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(6):1224-1230.
7. Gao Xuejie,Zhao Zongci,Filippo Giorgi.Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia [J]Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(5):927-942.
8. Gong D Y,Ho C H.Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2002,29(10):1436,doi:10.1029/2001GL014523.
9. Guan Zhaoyong,Yamagata T.The unusual summer of 1994 in East Asia:IOD teleconnections[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2003a,30(10):1541-1544.
10. Guan Zhaoyong,Ashok K,Yamagata T.Summertime response of the tropical atmosphere to the Indian ocean dipole sea surface temperature anomalies[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,2003b,81(3):533-561.
11. He Haiyan,McGinnis J W,Song Zhengshan.et al.Onset of the Asian summer monsoon in 1979 and the effect of the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1987,115(9):1966-1995.
12. Hu Z Z,Yang S,Wu R.Long-term climate variations in China and global waring signals[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(D19):4614,doi:10.1029/2003JD003651.
13. IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The physical science basis.Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York.NY,USA,2007.996.
14. Krishnamurti T N,Ramanathan Y. Sensitivity of monsoon onset of differential heating[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1982,39(6):1290-1306.
15. Li Feng,He Jinhai.Interdecadal variations of interaction between north Pacific SSTA and east Asian summer monsoon[J] Journal of Tropical Meteorology,,2001,7(1):41-52.
16. Li Hongmei,Dai Aiguo,Zhou Tianjun,Lu Jian.Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950-2000[J]. Climate Dynamics,2010,34(4):501-514.
17. Nitta T. Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the orthern hemisphere summer circulation[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1987,65(3):373-390.
18. Pathasarathy B,Munot A A,Kothwale D R.All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series:1871-1993 [J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,1994,49(4):217-224.
19. Qian W,Lin X.Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,90(2):193-207.
20. Rasmusson E M,Michael H.EI Nino and variations in climate[J].American Scientist,1985,73(2):168-177.
21. Ropelewski C F,Halpert M S.Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1987,115(6):1606-1626.
22. Saji N H, Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N,et al.A dipolemode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J].Nature,1999, 401(6571):360-363.
23. Sun xiurong,Chen longxun,He Jinhai.Interannual variatiojn of index of East Asian land-sea thermal difference and its relatioj to monsoon circulation and rainfall over china[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2001,15(1):71-85.
24. Surabi Menon, James Hansen, Larissa Nazarenko, and Yunfeng Luo. Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India [J].Science,2002,297(5590):2250-2253.
25. Tao Shiyan,Chen Longxun.A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. In:Chang C P,Krishnamurti T N,Eds.Monsoon Meteorology.Oxford University press,1987.60-92.
26. Trenberth K E.The definition of El Nino[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1997,78(12):2771-2777.
27. Wang Bin,Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,Liu Jian,Chang Chih-Pei.Ding Yihui,Wu Guoxiong. How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(17):4449-4463.
28. Wang Huijun.The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970s[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(3):376-386.
29. Wang Huijun,Fan Ke.Central-North China precipitation as reconstructed from the Qing Dynasty:Signal of the Antarctic atmospheric oscillation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32,L24705,doi:10.1029/2005GL024562.
30. Wang Y Q,Zhou L.Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation[J].Geophysical Research Letter,2005,32,L09707,doi:10.1029/2005GL022574.
31. Webster P J,Yang S.Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1992,118(507):877-926.
32. Wu Renguang,Wang Bin.A contrast of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship between 1962-77 and 1978-93[J]. Journal ofClimate,2002,15(22):3266-3279.
33. Xu Qun.Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution[J].Atmospheric Environment,2001,35(30):5029-5040.
34. Xue F,Wang H J,He J H.Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influence on East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2004,82(4):1173-1186.
35. Yanai Michio, Li Chengfeng,Song Zhengshan.Seasonal heating of the Tibetan Plateau and its effects on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1992,70(1B):319-351.
36. Yu Rucong,Wang Bin,Zhou Tianjun.Tropospheric cooling and summer monsoon weakening trend over East Asia[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2004,31,L22212,doi:10.1029/2004GL021270.
37. Zhai Panmao,Zhang Xuebin,Wan Hui, Pan Xiaohua. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J]. Journal of Climate,2005,18(7):1096-1108.
38. Zhang Yongsheng,Li Tim, Wang Bin. Decadal change of the spring snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau:The associated circulation and influence on the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal ofClimate,2004,17(14):2780-2793.
39. Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong.Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models[J]. Journal of Climate,2006,19(22):5843-5858.
40. Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong,Li Hongmei,Wang Bin. Ocean forcing to changes in global monsoon precipitation over the recent half century [J]Journal of Climate,2008,21(15):3833-3852.
41. Zhou Tianjun,Zhang Jie.Harmonious inter-decadal changes of July-August upper tropospheric temperature across the North Atlantic, Eurasian continent and North Pacific[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2009,26(4):656-665.
42. Zhu Jinhong,Wang Shaowu.80a-oscillation of summer rainfall over east of China and east Asian summer monsoon[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(5):1043-1051.
43. Zhu Qiangen, He Jinhai,Wang Panxin. A study of circulation differences between East-Asian and Indian Summer Monsoon with their interaction [J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1986,3(4):466-477.
44. 卞林根,林学春.南极海冰涛动及其对东亚季风和我国夏季降水的可能影响[J].冰川动土,2008,30(2)：196-203.
45. 蔡怡,李海,张人禾.热带印度洋海温异常与ENSO关系的进一步研究[J].气象学报,2008,66(1)：120-124.
46. 陈桂英,廖荃荪.100 hPa南亚高压位置特征与我国盛夏降水[J].高原气象,1990,9(4)：432-438.
47. 陈烈庭.青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO在1998年长江流域洪涝中的作用[J].大气科学,2001,25(2)：184-192.
48. 陈烈庭,吴仁广.太平洋各区海温异常对中国东部夏季雨带类型的共同影响[J].大气科学,1998,22(5)：718-726.
49. 陈隆勋.东亚季风系统的结构及其中期变动[J].海洋学报,1984,3(6)：744-785.
50. 陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮,等.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报,2004,62(5)：634-646.
51. 陈文,康丽华,王玎.我国夏季降水与全球海温的耦合关系分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3)：259-269.
52. 陈晓光,朱乾根,徐祥德.河套华北地区早涝前期的环流异常和遥相关机制[J].南京气象学院学报,1993,16(4)：392-398.
53. 陈兴芳.1994年西太平洋副高异常变化及其成因分析[J].气象,1995,21(12)：3-7.
54. 陈兴芳,赵振国.中国汛期降水预测研究及应用[M].北京：气象出版社,2000.1-20.
55. 邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,2009,33(4)：835-846.
56. 丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4)：794-805.
57. 段丽瑶,荣艳淑,梁平德.西太平洋副热带高压位置对华北盛夏降水的影响[J].气象科技,2008,36(3)：273-276.
58. 高辉,张芳华.关于东亚夏季风指数的比较[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(1)：79-86.
59. 高由禧,徐淑英.东亚季风的若干问题[M].北京：科学出版社,1962.106pp.
60. 龚道溢,王绍武.北大西洋涛动指数的比较及其年代际变率[J].大气科学,2000,24(2)：187-192.
61. 顾薇,李崇银,潘静.太平洋—印度洋海温与我国东部早涝型年代际变化的关系[J].气候与环境研究2007,12(2)：113-123.
62. 顾伟宗,陈海山,孙照渤.华北春季降水及其与前期印度洋海温的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2006,29(4)：484-490.
63. 郭其蕴.东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].地理学报,1983,38(3)：207-217.
64. 郭其蕴.中国季风降水与赤道东太平洋海温的关系[J].地理研究,1990,9(4)：49-60.
65. 郭其蕴,王继琴.中国与印度夏季风降水的比较研究[J].热带气象学报,1988,4(1)：53-60.
66. 郭其蕴,蔡静宁,邵雪梅,等.东亚夏季风的年代际变率对中国气候的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4)：569-576.
67. 郝立生,乔林,何立富,等.燕山南麓夏季降水对东亚季风变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2007a,28(2)：128-131.
68. 郝立生,闵锦忠,姚学祥.华北夏季降水减少原因分析[J].干旱区研究,2007b,24(4)：522-527.
69. 郝立生,姚学祥,只德国.气候变化与海河流域地表水资源量的关系[J].海河水利,2009,28(5)：1-4.
70. 何金海,赵平,祝从文,等.关于东亚副热带季风若干问题的讨论[J].气象学报,2008,66(5)：683-696.
71. 何敏,宋文玲,许力.南海季风指数的定义及预报[A].见：何金海.南海夏季风建立日期的确定与季风指数[C].北京：气象出版社,2001.109-110.
72. 何有海,程志强,关翠华.华北地区夏季降水量与南海海温长期变化的关系[J].热带海洋学报,2003,22(1)：1-8.
73. 黄刚,严中伟.东亚夏季风环流异常指数及其年际变化[J].科学通报,1999,44(2)：421-424.
74. 黄荣辉,李维京.夏季热带西太平洋上空的热源异常对东亚上空副热带高压的影响及其物理机制[J].大气科学,1988,12(增刊)：107-117.
75. 黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池上空对流活动对东亚夏季风季节内变化的影响[J].大气科学,1994,18(4)：456-465.
76. 黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童,等.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象,1999,18(4)：465-476.
77. 黄荣辉,周连童.我国重大气候灾害特征形成机理和预测研究[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(1)：1-9.
78.黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5)：730-743.
79. 黄燕燕,钱永甫.长江流域、华北降水特征与南亚高压的关系分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(1)：68-74.
80. 黄樱,钱永甫.南亚高压与华北夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2003,22(6)：602-607.
81. 贾小龙,李崇银.南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(6)：1238-1249.
82. 建军,余锦华.登陆我国台风与华北夏季降水的相关[J].南京气象学院学报,2006,29(6)：819-826.
83. 江滢,翟盘茂.几种亚洲季风指数与中国夏季主要雨型的关联[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(z1)：70-76.
84. 琚建华,陈琳玲,李崇银.太平洋印度洋海温异常模态及其指数定义的初步研究[J].热带气象学报2004,20(6)：617-624.
85. 琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(1)：74-81.
86. 李超.厄尔尼诺对我国汛期降水的影响[J].海洋学报,1992,14(5)：45-51.
87. 李崇银,穆明权.赤道印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].大气科学,2001,25(4)：433-443.
88. 李崇银,王作台,林士哲,等.东亚夏季风活动与东亚高空西风急流位置北跳关系的研究[J].大气科学,2004,28(5)：641-658.
89. 李春,孙照渤,陈海山.华北夏季降水的年代际变化及其与东亚地区大气环流的联系明.南京气象学院学报,2002,25(4)：455-462.
90. 李春,孙照渤.中纬度阻塞高压指数与华北夏季降水的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(4)：458-464.
91. 李东辉,谭言科,张瑰,等.东亚冬夏季风对热带印度洋秋季海温异常的响应[J].热带海洋学报,2006,25(4)：6-13.
92.李峰,何金海.东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA关系的年代际变化特征及其机制研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2001,24(2)：199-206.
93. 李麦村,吴仪芳,黄嘉佑.中国东部季风降水与赤道东太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,1987,11(4)：365-372.
94. 李琰,王亚非,魏东.前期热带太平洋、印度洋海温异常对长江流域及以南地区6月降水的影响[J].气象学报,2007,65(3)：393-405.
95. 梁平德,段丽瑶,周鸣盛,等.华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆[J].气象学报,2006,64(3)：385-391.
96. 廖清海,高守亭,王会军,等.北半球夏季副热带西风急流变异及其对东亚夏季风气候异常的影响[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(1)：10-18.
97. 刘海文,丁一汇.华北汛期的起讫及其气候学分析[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6)：688-696.
98. 刘海文，郭品文，张娇.戴维斯海峡海冰与华北降水的年际关系及其年代际变化[J].南京气象学院学报，2004,27(2)：253-257.
99. 刘娜,周秋林,管兆勇,等.北半球对流层气候异常对热带印度洋海温偶极子型振荡的响应及动力机制解释[J].自然科学进展,2008,18(6)：668-673.
100.刘颖,倪允琪ENSO对亚洲夏季风环流和中国夏季降水影响的诊断研究[J].气象学报,1998,56(6)：618-691.
101.刘毓赞,赵荻,曹杰.热带太平洋和印度洋海温异常对东亚冬季风影响的一个物理机制[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(1)：24-29.
102.陆端军,张先恭.中国降水和温度对ENSO响应的特征[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(1)：118-123.
103.陆日宇,黄荣辉.东亚—太平洋遥相关型波列对夏季东北阻塞高压年际变化的影响[J].大气科学,1998,22(5)：727-734.
104.陆日宇.华北汛期降水量年际变化与赤道东太平洋海温.科学通报,2005,50(11)：1131-1135.
105.马京津，高晓清,曲迎乐.华北地区春季和夏季降水特征及与气候相关的分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3)：321-329.
106.马京津,于波,高晓清,等.大尺度环流变化对华北地区夏季水汽输送的影响[J].高原气象,2008,27(3)：517-523.
107.缪锦海,Lau K M东亚季风降水的年际变化[J].应用气象学报,1990,1(4)：377-382.
108.彭加毅,孙照渤.70年代末大气环流及中国旱涝分布的突变[J].南京气象学院学报,1999,22(3)：300-304.
109.彭京备,陈烈庭,张庆云.青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO的多尺度变化及其与中国夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2005,24(3)：366-377.
110.钱永甫,张琼,张学洪.南亚高压与我国盛夏气候异常[J].南京大学学报,2002,38(3)：295-307.
111.钱维宏.全球气候系统[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2009.260-261.
112.乔云亭,陈烈庭,张庆云.东亚季风指数的定义及其与中国气候的关系[J],大气科学,2002,26(1)：69-82.
113.荣艳淑,罗健.华北地区1901—2002年气候变化强度的演变[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3)：276-280.
114.施能,朱乾根,吴彬贵.近40年东亚夏季风及我国夏季大尺度天气气候异常[J].大气科学,1996,20(5)：575-583.
115.施晓晖.华北夏季降水的年代际趋势突变及其可能成因[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(2)：22-28.
116.史印山,姚学祥,杨晓亮,李宗涛.华北夏季早涝的特征分析[J]气象科学,2008,28(4)：377-383.
117.宋华，孙照渤.华北地区夏季旱涝的时空分布特征及其与北极海冰的关系[J].南京气象学院学报2003,26(3)：289-295.
118.孙安健,高波.华北平原地区夏季严重旱涝特征诊断分析[J].大气科学,2000,24(3)：393-402.
119.孙卫国,程炳岩,郭渠.东亚季风环流对华北地区降水蒸发差的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3)：327-334.
120.孙燕,王谦谦,钱永甫,等.华北地区夏季降水与全球海温异常的关系[J].高原气象,2006,25(6)：1127-1138.
121.谭桂容,孙照渤.西太平洋副高与华北旱涝的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2)：206-211.
122.谭言科,刘会荣,李崇银,等.热带印度洋偶极子的季节性位相锁定可能原因[J].大气科学,2008,32(2)：197-205.
123.汤绪,陈葆德,梁萍,等.有关东亚夏季风北边缘的定义及其特征[J].气象学报,2009,67(1)：83-89.
124.唐卫亚,孙照渤.印度洋海温异常与中国气温异常的可能联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(5)：667-673.
125.陶诗言,赵煜佳,陈晓敏,等.东亚的梅雨期与亚洲上空大气环流季节变化的关系[J].气象学报,1958,29(2)：119-134.
126.陶诗言,何诗秀,杨显芳.1979年季风实验期间东亚地区夏季风爆发时期的观测研究[J].大气科学,1983,7(4)：347-355.
127.涂长望,黄士松.中国夏季风之进退[J].气象学报,1944,18(1)：82-92.
128.王会军,范可.南半球对流层上层纬向风与东亚夏季风环流[J].科学通报,2006,51(13)：1595-1600.
129.王绍武,朱锦红.国外关于年代际气候变率的研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(3)：376-383.
130.王绍武.现代气候学研究进展[M].北京：气象出版社,2001.458pp.
131.王永波,施能.夏季北大西洋涛动与我国天气气候的关系[J].气象科学.2001,21(3)：271-278.
132.韦志刚，罗四维，董文杰,等.青藏高原积雪资料分析及其与我国夏季降水的影响[J].应用气象学报1998,9(增刊)：39-46.
133.魏凤英,张先恭,李晓东.用CEOF分析近百年中国东部早涝的分布及其年际变化特征[J].应用气象学报, 1995,6(4)：454-460.
134.吴尚森,梁建茵.南海夏季风强度指数及其变化特征[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4)：337-344.
135.吴统文,钱正安.青藏高原冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水关系的进一步分析[J].气象学报,2000,58(5)：570-581.
136.武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6)：641-651.
137.武炳义,高登义,黄荣辉.冬春季节北极海冰的年际和年代际变化[J].气候与环境研究,2000,5(3)：249-258.
138.武炳义,黄荣辉,高登义.北极海冰的厚度和面积变化对大气环流影响的数值模拟[J].气象学报,2001,59(4)：414-428.
139.谢付莹,何金海.华北夏季降水与哈得孙湾海冰的相关分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(3)：308-316.
140.谢坤,任雪娟.华北夏季大气水汽输送特征及其与夏季旱涝的关系[J].气象科学,2008,28(5)：508-514.
141.徐桂玉,杨修群,孙旭光.华北降水年代际、年际变化特征与北半球大气环流的联系[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3)：511-518.
142.徐国昌,李珊,洪波.青藏高原雪盖异常对我国环流和降水的影响[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(1)：62-67.
143.严华生,严小冬.前期高度场和海温场变化对我国汛期降水的影响[J].大气科学,2004,28(3)：405-414.
144.晏红明,肖子牛.印度洋海温异常对亚洲季风区天气气候影响的数值模拟研究[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(1)：18-27.
145.杨霞,管兆勇,朱保林.IOD对ENSO影响中国夏季降水和气温的干扰作用[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(2)：170-177.
146.杨修群,谢倩,黄士松.北极冰异常对亚洲夏季风影响的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,1994,16(5)：35-40.
147.杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4)：789-797.
148.叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1996.387pp.
149.于润玲,孙照渤,陈海山.华北夏季降水与北半球环流及北太平洋海温关系的初步分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2002,25(5)：577-586.
150.袁潮霞,钱永甫.南半球高纬地区前期环流异常和我国华北地区夏季降水的联系[J].热带气象学报2005,21(6)：570-578.
151.翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊)：1-10.
152.张恒德,金荣花,张友姝.夏季北极涡与副热带高压的联系及对华北降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4)：417-422.
153.张礼平,丁一汇,陈正洪,等.OLR与长江中游夏季降水的关联[J].气象学报,2007,65(1)：75-83.
154.张利平,夏军,胡志芳.华北地区降水多时间尺度演变特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(3)：140-144.
155.张庆云.1880年以来华北降水及水资源的变化[J].高原气象,1999,18(4)：486-495.
156.张庆云,陶诗言.夏季东亚热带和副热带季风与中国东部汛期降水[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(增刊)：16-23.
157.张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J].气象学报,2003a,61(4)：559-568.
158.张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003b,8(3)：307-318.
159.张人禾El Nino盛期印度夏季风水汽输送在我国华北地区夏季降水异常中的作用[J].高原气象1999,18(4)：567-574.
160.张先恭,张家诚.近五百年来我国气候的几种振动及其相互关系[J].气象学报,1969,37(2)：50-57.
161.张秀芝,李江龙,阎俊岳,等.南海夏季风爆发的环流特征及指标的研究[A].见：何金海等.南海夏季风建立日期的确定与季风指数[C].北京：气象出版社,2001.83-95.
162.赵平,周自江.东亚副热带夏季风指数及其与降水的关系[J].气象学报,2005,63(6)：933-941.
163.赵平,周秀骥,陈隆勋,等.中国东部—西太平洋副热带季风和降水的气候特征及成因分析[J].气象学报,2008,66(6)：940-954.
164.赵声蓉,宋正山,纪立人.华北汛期降水与亚洲季风异常关系的研究[J].气象学报,2002,60(1)：68-75.
165.赵声蓉,宋正山,纪立人.青藏高原热力异常与华北汛期降水关系的研究[J].大气科学,2003,27(5)：881-893.
166.赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场[M].北京：气象出版社,1999.1-9.
167.周连童,黄荣辉.关于我国夏季气候年代际变化特征及其可能成因的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3)：274-290.
168.周连童.引起华北地区夏季出现持续干旱的环流异常型[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(2)：120-130.
169.朱锦红,王绍武,慕巧珍.华北夏季降水80年振荡及其与东亚夏季风的关系[J].自然科学进展2003,13(11)：1205-1209.
170.朱玉祥,丁一汇,刘海文.青藏高原冬季积雪影响我国夏季降水的模拟研究[J].大气科学,2009,33(5)：903-915.
171.竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1)：1-27.
172.祝从文,何金海,吴国雄.东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系[J].气象学报,2000,58(4)：391-402.
173.庄世宇,纪立人.夏季副热带西太平洋大气环流持续异常[J].科学通报,1997,42(20)：2196-2199.
1. Bretherton C S,Smith C,Wallace J M.An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data[J]. Journal of Climate,1992,5(6):541-560.
2. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bill Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3): 437-472.
3. Liebmann B,Smith C A. Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(6):1275-1277.
4. Prohaska J. A technique for analysis the linear relationship between two meteorological fields[J]. Mon Wea Rew,1976, 104(11):1345-1353.
5. Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
6. Torrence C,Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.1998,79(1):61-78.
7. Wallace J M, Smith C, Bretherton C S.Singular value decomposition of wintertime sea surface temperature and 500-mb height anomalies[J]. Journal of Climate,1992,5(6): 561-576.
8. Wang Bin,An Soon-Ⅱ.A method fordetecting season-depenent modes of climat variability: S-EOF analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32,L5710,doi:10.1029/2005GL022709.
9. 丁裕国,江志红.SVD方法在气象场诊断分析中的普适性[J].气象学报,1996,54(3)：365-372.
10. 黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法(第三版)[M].北京：气象出版社,2004.130-131.
11.江志红,丁裕国.我国夏半年降水距平与北太平洋海温异常的奇异值分解法分析[J].热带气象学报,1995,11(2)：133-141.
12. 马开玉,陈星,张耀存.气候诊断[M].北京：气象出版社,1996.122-123.
13. 吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京：气象出版社,2005.371pp.
14. 《数学手册》编写组.数学手册[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1979.836-852.
15. 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.18-66.
1. Ding Yihui. Summer monsoon rainfall in China[J]Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1992,70(1):373-396.
2. Torrence C,Compo GP. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of theAmerican Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78.
3. 陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文,等.中国近45年来气候变化的研究[J].气象学报,1998,56(3)：257-271.
4. 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4)：482-493.
5. 吕俊梅,任菊章,琚建华.东亚夏季风的年代际变化对中国降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(1)：73-82.
6. 马开玉,陈星,张耀存.气候诊断[M].北京：气象出版社,1996.260pp.
7. 缪锦海,Lau K M.东亚季风降水的年际变化[J].应用气象学报,1990,1(4)：377-382.
8. 陶诗言,何诗秀，杨显芳.1979年季风实验期间东亚地区夏季风爆发时期的观测研究[J].大气科学,1983,7(4)：347-355.
9. 王遵娅,丁一汇.中国雨季的气候学特征[J].大气科学,2008,32(1)：1-13.
10.魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.296pp.
11.叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域早涝规律和成因研究[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1996.387pp.
12.周连童,黄荣辉.关于我国夏季气候年代际变化特征及其可能成因的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3)：274-290.
13.竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1)：1-27.
1. Busuioc A,Chen D. Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates:Application for Swedish precipitation[J].International Journal of Climatology,2001,21(5):557-578.
2. Chen D. A monthly circulation climatology for Sweden and its application to a winter temperature case study[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2000,20(10):1067-1076.
3. Chen Hua,Ding Yihui,He Jinhai.Reappraisal of Asian summer monsoon indices and the long-term variation of monsoon[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,21(2):168-178.
4. Ding Yihui, Johnny C. L. Chan.The East Asian summer monsoon:an overview[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,89(1):117-142.
5. Jenkinson A F,Collison F P. An initial climatology of gales over the North Sea. Synoptic Climatology Branch Memorandum,1977,No.62, Meteorological Office,Bracknell,18.
6. Jia Liwei.Li Weijing,Chen Deliang. A monthly atmospheric circulation classification and its relationship with climate in Harbin[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2006,20(4):403-412.
7. Jones P D,Kelly P M. Principal component analysis of the Lamb catalogue of daily weather types:Part 1,Annual frequencies[J]. International Journal of Climatology,1982.2(2):147-157.
8. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(3):437-471.
9. Lamb H H. Types and spells of weather around the year in the British Isles:Annual trends, seasonal structure of the year, singularities [J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1950,76(330):393-438.
10. Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
11. Wang Bin,Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,Liu Jian,Chang Chih-Pei,Ding Yihui,Wu Guoxiong. How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(17):4449-4463.
12. Wang Hui-Jun.Instability of the East Asina summer monsoon-ENSO relations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(1):1-11.
13. Yang Song,Lau K M,Kim K M.Variations of the east Asian jet stream and Asian-pacific-American winter climate anomalies[J]. Journal of Climate,2002,15(3):306-325.
14. Zhang X,Wang X L,Corte-Real J. On the relationships between daily circulation patterns and precipitation in Portugal. Journal of Geophysical Research,1997,102(D12):13495-13507,doi:10.1029/97JD01012.
15. Zhao Ping,Zhou Zijiang. An East Asian subtropical summer monsoon index and its relationship to summer rainfall in Chin[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2009,23(1):18-28.
16. Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong.Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China[3].Journal of Geophysical Research,2005,110, D08104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005413.
17. 陈隆勋,朱乾根,罗会邦,等.东亚季风[M].北京：气象出版社,1991.362pp.
18. 陈兴芳.1994年西太平洋副高异常变化及其成因分析[J].气象,1995,21(12)：3-7.
19. 丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4)：794-805.
20. 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4)：482-493.
21. 郭其蕴.东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].地理学报,1983,38(3)：207-217.
22. 郝立生,闵锦忠,姚学祥.华北和印度夏季风降水变化的对比分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(5)：271-275.
23. 黄刚.与华北干旱相关联的全球尺度气候变化现象[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3)：270-279.
24. 黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童,等.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象,1999,18(4)：465-476.
25. 黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5)：730-743.
26. 黄荣辉,顾雷,陈际龙,等.东亚季风系统的时空变化及其对我国气候异常影响的最近研究进展[J].大气科学,2008,32(4)：691-719.
27. 黄樱,钱永甫.南亚高压与华北夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2003,22(6)：602-607.
28. 贾丽伟,李维京,陈德亮.东北地区降水与大气环流关系[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(5)：557-566.
29. 琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(1)：74-81.
30. 李春，孙照渤.中纬度阻塞高压指数与华北夏季降水的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(4)：458-464.
31. 李峰,何金海.东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA关系的年代际变化特征及其机制研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2001,24(2)：199-206.
32. 陆日宇.与华北地区春季降水量异常关联的大气环流异常[J].气候与环境研究,2001,6(4)：400-408.
33. 罗四维,钱正安,王谦谦.夏季100毫巴青藏高压与我国旱涝关系的天气气候研究[J].高原气象,1982,1(2)：1-10.
34. 宋华，孙照渤.华北地区夏季早涝的时空分布特征及其与北极海冰的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(3)：289-295.
35. 孙安健,高波.华北平原地区夏季严重旱涝特征诊断分析[J].大气科学,2000,24(3)：393-402.
36. 谭桂容，孙照渤.西太平洋副高与华北旱涝的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2)：206-211.
37.陶诗言,朱福康.夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J].气象学报,1964,34(4)：385-395.
38.涂长望,黄士松.中国夏季风之进退[J].气象学报,1944,18(1)：82-92.
39.卫捷,张庆云,陶诗言.1999年及2000年夏季华北严重干旱的物理成因分析[J].大气科学,2004,28(1)：125-137.
40.吴国雄,丑纪范,刘屹岷,等.副热带高压研究进展及展望[A].见：吴国雄,张琼主编.夏季副热带高压变化研究的新进展[C].北京：气象出版社,2006.1-15.
41.杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4)：789-797.
42.叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域早涝规律和成因研究[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1996.387pp.
43.张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干早的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3)：307-318.
44.张人禾El Nino盛期印度夏季风水汽输送在我国华北地区夏季降水异常中的作用[J].高原气象1999,18(4)：567-574.
45.朱锦红王绍武慕巧珍.华北夏季降水80年振荡及其与东亚夏季风的关系[J].自然科学进展，2003,13(11)：1205-1209.
46.竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1)：1-27.
1. Cheng H Q, Wu T W, Dong W J. Thermal contrast between the middle-latitude Asian continent and adjacent ocean and its connection to the East Asian summer precipitation[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(19):4992-5007.
2. Ding Yihui, Johnny C. L. Chan.The East Asian summer monsoon:an overview[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005,89(1):117-142.
3. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(3):437-471.
4. Kripalani R H,Oh J H,Chaudhari H S. Delayed influence of the Indian ocean dipole mode on the East Asia-west pacific monsoon:possible mechanism[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2010,30(2):197-209.
5. Saji N H, Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N,et al.A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J].Nature,1999, 401(6571):360-363.
6. Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
7. Wu Renguang, Kirtman B P. Observed relationship of spring and summer East Asian rainfall with winter and spring Eurasian snow[J]. Journal of Climate,2007,20(7):1285-1304.
8. Yuan Y, Yang H, Zhou W, Li C Y. Influences of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Asian summer monsoon in the following year[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2008,28(14):1849-1859.
9. 陈文,康丽华,王玎.我国夏季降水与全球海温的耦合关系分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3)：259-269.
10. 陈晓光,朱乾根,徐祥德.河套华北地区早涝前期的环流异常和遥相关机制[J].南京气象学院学报,1993,16(4)：392-398.
11. 戴新刚,汪萍,丑纪范.华北汛期降水多尺度特征与夏季风年代际衰变[J].科学通报,2003,48(23)：2483-2487.
12. 邓伟涛，孙照渤，曾刚，等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,2009,33(4)：835-846.
13.丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4)：794-805.
14. 顾薇，李崇银，潘静.太平洋—印度洋海温与我国东部旱涝型年代际变化的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2007,12(2)：113-123.
15. 黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童,等.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象,1999,18(4)：465-476.
16. 黄荣辉,陈际龙,周连童,等.关于中国重大气候灾害与东亚气候系统之间关系的研究[J].大气科学,2003,27(4)：770-787.
17. 黄樱,钱永甫.南亚高压与华北夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2003,22(6)：602-607.
18.琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象,2006,25(1)：74-81.
19. 李春,孙照渤.中纬度阻塞高压指数与华北夏季降水的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(4)：458-464.
20. 李峰,何金海.北太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风相互作用的年代际变化[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(3)：260-271.
21.李峰,何金海.东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA关系的年代际变化特征及其机制研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2001,24(2)：199-206.
22.刘海文,丁一汇.华北汛期的起讫及其气候学分析[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6)：688-696.
23.马京津,于波,高晓清,等.大尺度环流变化对华北地区夏季水汽输送的影响[J].高原气象,2008,27(3)：517-523.
24.彭京备,陈烈庭,张庆云.青藏高原异常雪盖和ENSO的多尺度变化及其与中国夏季降水的关系[J].高原气象,2005,24(3)：366-377.
25. 施晓晖.华北夏季降水的年代际趋势突变及其可能成因[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(2)：22-28.
26.孙卫国,程炳岩,郭渠.东亚季风环流对华北地区降水蒸发差的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3)：327-334.
27. 谭桂容，孙照渤.西太平洋副高与华北旱涝的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2)：206-211.
28. 谭言科,刘会荣,李崇银,等.热带印度洋偶极子的季节性位相锁定可能原因[J].大气科学,2008,32(2)：197-205.
29. 谢坤,任雪娟.华北夏季大气水汽输送特征及其与夏季旱涝的关系[J].气象科学,2008,28(5)：508-514.
30. 杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4)：789-797.
31. 叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究[M].济南：山东科学技术出版社,1996.387pp.
32. 张恒德,金荣花,张友姝.夏季北极涡与副热带高压的联系及对华北降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4)：417-422.
33. 张利平,夏军,胡志芳.华北地区降水多时间尺度演变特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(3)：140-144.
34.张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干早的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3)：307-318.
35. 张人禾.El Nino盛期印度夏季风水汽输送在我国华北地区夏季降水异常中的作用[J].高原气象1999,18(4)：567-574.
36. 周连童.引起华北地区夏季出现持续干旱的环流异常型[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(2)：120-130.
37. 朱玉祥,丁一汇,刘海文.青藏高原冬季积雪影响我国夏季降水的模拟研究[J].大气科学,2009,33(5)：903-915.
1. Ding Yihui.Monsoons Over China[M].Kluwer Academy Pblisher,1994.420pp.
2. Guan Zhaoyong,Ashok K,Yamagata T.Summertime response of the tropical atmosphere to the Indian ocean dipole sea surface temperature anomalies[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2003,81(3):533-561.
3. He Jinhai,Ju Jianhua,Wen Zhiping,et al.A review of recent advances in research on Asian monsoon in China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007a,24(6):972-992.
4. He Jinhai,Sun Chenghu,Liu Yunyun,et al.Seasonal transition features of large-scale moisture transport in the Asian-Australian monsoon region[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007b,24(1):1-14.
5. He Jinhai,Wen Min,Wang Lijuan,Xu Haiming. Characteristics of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon and the importance of Asian-Australian "Land Bridge"[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2006,23(6):951-963.
6. Huang Ronghui,Chen Jilong,Huang Gang.Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007,24(6):993-1023.
7. Huang Ronghui,Wu Yifang.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1989,6(1):21-32.
8. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-472.
9. Kripalani R H,Oh J H,Chaudhari H S. Delayed influence of the Indian ocean dipole mode on the East Asia-west pacific monsoon:possible mechanism[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2010,30(2):197-209.
10. Lau K M,Yang Song. Climatology and interannual variability of the southeast asian summer monsoon[J].Advances in A tmospheric Sciences,1997,14(2):141-162
11. Nitta T.Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society ofJapan,1987,65(3):373-390.
12. Qian W,Kang H S,Lee D K.Distribution of seasonal rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2002,73(3-4):151-168.
13. Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)[J]. Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
14. Tao Shiyan,Chen Longxun. A review of recent research on the East Asian Summer monsoon in China. In:Chang C P,Krishnamurti T N,Eds.Monsoon Meteorology.Oxford University press,1987.60-92.
15. Wang Bin,An Soon-II.A method fordetecting season-depenent modes of climat variability:S-EOF analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32,L 15710,doi:10.1029/2005GL022709.
16. Wang Bin,Yang Jing,Zhou Tianjun. Interdecadal changes in the major modes of Asian-Australian monsoon variability:strengthening relationship with ENSO since the Late 1970s[J]Journal of Climate,2008a,21(8):1771-1789.
17. Wang Bin,Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping,Liu Jian,Chang Chih-Pei,Ding Yihui,Wu Guoxiong. How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate,2008b,21(17):4449-4463.
18. Wu Bo,Zhou Tianjun,Li Tim. Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate[J]. Journal of Climate,2009,22(11):2992-3005.
19. Wu Renguang,Wang Bin.Interannual variability of summer monsoon onset over the western North Pacific and the underlying processes. Journal of Climate,2000.13(14):2483-2501.
20. Zhao Ping,Zhange Renhe,Li Jiping,Zhou Xiuji,He Jinhai. Onset of southwesterly wind over eastern China and associated atmospheric circulation and rainfall[J]. Climate Dynamics,2007,28(7-8):797-811.
21. 陈隆勋,朱乾根,罗会邦,等.东亚季风[M].北京：气象出版社,1991.362pp.
22. 丁一汇,李崇银.何金海,等.南海季风试验与东亚夏季风[J].气象学报,2004,62(5)：561-586.
23. 何金海,温敏,丁一汇,等.亚澳“大陆桥”对流影响东亚夏季风建立的可能机制[J].中国科学D辑,2006,36(10)：959-967.
24. 何金海,宇婧婧,沈新勇,高辉.有关东亚季风的形成及其变率的研究[J].热带气象学报.2004,20(5)：449-456.
25. 黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5)：730-743.
26.廖清海，陶诗言.东亚地区夏季大气环流季节循环进程及其在区域持续性降水异常形成中的作用[J].大气科学,2004,28(6)：835-846.
27. 刘娜,周秋林,管兆勇,等.北半球对流层气候异常对热带印度洋海温偶极子型振荡的响应及动力机制解释[J].自然科学进展,2008,18(6)：668-673.
28. 闵锦忠，孙照渤,曾刚.南海和印度洋海温异常对东亚大气环流及降水的影响[J].南京气象学院学报2000,23(4)：542-548.
29. 陶诗言,赵煜佳,陈晓敏,等.东亚的梅雨期与亚洲上空大气环流季节变化的关系[J].气象学报,1958,29(2)：119-134.
30. 涂长望,黄仕松.中国夏季风之进退[J].气象学报,1944,18(1)：82-92.
31. 竺可桢.东南季风与中国之雨量[J].地理学报,1934,1(1)：1-27.